Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China

This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.     

南京城市化食物生产消费系统氮素流动变化

城市化的发展对食物生产消费过程中氮素的流动产生了一定的影响。以1995—2012年南京市食物生产消费变化为基础,分析了食物生产消费过程中氮素的流动变化及其引起的环境负荷。结果表明,农村和城镇人均食物氮消费量分别由1995年的5.09 kg人~(-1)a~(-1)和3.04 kg人~(-1)a~(-1)下降至2012年的4.11 kg人~(-1)a~(-1)和2.65 kg人~(-1)a~(-1);与1995年相比,南京市食物消费代价降低了39.29%;农田系统和畜禽养殖系统氮素综合利用率由1995年的18.71%增加至2012年的24.34%,整体低于全国水平,大量的氮素进入环境;1995年食物链引起氮素的环境负荷为100.49 Gg N/a,到2012年下降至69.90 Gg N/a,下降了30.44%。南京城市化的发展增加了食物进口,会使食物生产地的氮环境负荷大幅度增加。     

世界主要国家耕地动态变化及其影响因素

在世界人口持续攀升、全球耕地面积不断减少的背景下,探讨世界主要国家耕地变化其影响因素,对于分析预测未来世界耕地变化趋势、研究世界粮食安全具有积极意义。选择2050年人口过亿的17个国家和耕地面积排名前10的国家为研究对象,在分析1961—2007年耕地总量变化、人均耕地变化的基础上,探讨了耕地变化影响因素。研究结果表明,从20世纪60年代到2007年间的不同时期内,有越来越多的国家表现出耕地减少趋势,而人均耕地面积减少的国家个数高达90%以上。满足人口消费需求、城市化与经济发展是大多数国家耕地总量变化的主要动力;而人口快速增长、城市化则是导致许多国家人均耕地显著减少的重要原因。     

Balancing food production and nature conservation in the Neotropical dry forests of northern Argentina

The growing human population and the increase in per capita food consumption are driving agriculture expansion and affecting natural ecosystems around the world. To balance increasing agriculture production and nature conservation, we must assess the efficiency of land‐use strategies. Soybean production, mainly exported to China and Europe, has become the major driver of deforestation in dry forest/savanna ecosystems of South America. In this article we compared land cover patterns (based on satellite imagery) and land‐use and human population trends (based on government statistics) in regions with two contrasting development pathways in the Chaco dry forests of northern Argentina, since the early 1970s. The area (ca. 13 million hectares) includes one of the largest continuous patches of tropical dry forests and has experienced rapid land‐use change. In the region where land use has been driven by government‐sponsored colonization programs, the expansion of extensive grazing has led to a growing rural population, low food production, and widespread environmental degradation. In contrast, in the region dominated by market‐driven soybean expansion, the rural population has decreased, food production is between 300% and 800% greater, and low‐density extensive cattle production has declined over extensive remaining forested areas, resulting in a land‐use trend that appears to better balance food production and nature conservation.     

Seventeenth century organic agriculture in China: I. Cropping systems in Jiaxing region

The cropping systems of seventeenth century traditional organic agriculture in the Jiaxing region of eastern China required about 2000 hr of labor per hectare for rice production. Rice and related grain crops were produced employing only human power. The input was about 200 times that for most mechanized grain production today. The charcoal or fossil energy input to produce simple hand tools accounted for only 1–2% total energy in the crop systems. Organic wastes including manures, pond sediments, and green manure crops supplied most of the nutrients. Rice yields, ranging as high as 6700–8400 kg/ha, were similar to some of the highest yields today. The energy output/input ratio ranged from 9 for compost-fertilized rice to 12 for green manure-fertilized rice production. These ratios were 2–10 times higher than most mechanized rice production systems of today. Knowledge of the crop and soil system enabled the early Chinese farms to maintain high crop yields and sustain highly productive soils.     

Agronomic improvements can make future cereal systems in South Asia far more productive and result in a lower environmental footprint

South Asian countries will have to double their food production by 2050 while using resources more efficiently and minimizing environmental problems. Transformative management approaches and technology solutions will be required in the major grain‐producing areas that provide the basis for future food and nutrition security. This study was conducted in four locations representing major food production systems of densely populated regions of South Asia. Novel production‐scale research platforms were established to assess and optimize three futuristic cropping systems and management scenarios (S2, S3, S4) in comparison with current management (S1). With best agronomic management practices (BMPs), including conservation agriculture (CA) and cropping system diversification, the productivity of rice‐ and wheat‐based cropping systems of South Asia increased substantially, whereas the global warming potential intensity (GWPi) decreased. Positive economic returns and less use of water, labor, nitrogen, and fossil fuel energy per unit food produced were achieved. In comparison with S1, S4, in which BMPs, CA and crop diversification were implemented in the most integrated manner, achieved 54% higher grain energy yield with a 104% increase in economic returns, 35% lower total water input, and a 43% lower GWPi. Conservation agriculture practices were most suitable for intensifying as well as diversifying wheat–rice rotations, but less so for rice–rice systems. This finding also highlights the need for characterizing areas suitable for CA and subsequent technology targeting. A comprehensive baseline dataset generated in this study will allow the prediction of extending benefits to a larger scale.     

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat‐growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat‐growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.     

Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption

The need for more sustainable production and consumption of animal source food (ASF) is central to the achievement of the sustainable development goals: within this context, wise use of land is a core challenge and concern. A key question in feeding the future world is: how much ASF should we eat? We demonstrate that livestock raised under the circular economy concept could provide a significant, nonnegligible part (9–23 g/per capita) of our daily protein needs (~50–60 g/per capita). This livestock then would not consume human‐edible biomass, such as grains, but mainly convert leftovers from arable land and grass resources into valuable food, implying that production of livestock feed is largely decoupled from arable land. The availability of these biomass streams for livestock then determines the boundaries for livestock production and consumption. Under this concept, the competition for land for feed or food would be minimized and compared to no ASF, including some ASF in the human diet could free up about one quarter of global arable land. Our results also demonstrate that restricted growth in consumption of ASF in Africa and Asia would be feasible under these boundary conditions, while reductions in the rest of the world would be necessary to meet land use sustainability criteria. Managing this expansion and contraction of future consumption of ASF is essential for achieving sustainable nutrition security.     

红壤丘陵区粮食生产的生态成本

人类的生产活动必然对资源与环境造成影响,以红壤丘陵区的湖南省祁阳县为研究对象,应用经济学和生态学方法,对粮食生产中的生态成本进行了研究。结果表明:2008年该区粮食生产生态损失总价值相当于当年农业总产值的4.85%;早、中、晚稻生态成本已分别达到3.18、2.44、3.02元/kg,而出售单价分别为1.76、1.90、1.84元/kg,高成本低收益的情况对该区域的可持续发展产生着不利影响;在当前生产力水平条件下,适度提高化肥、农药、农业机械、农膜、劳动力的投入,提高水稻产量,扩大家庭种植规模,可降低生产单位水稻的生态成本。     

Glutinous Rice and Its Importance for Hill Farmers in Laos

Glutinous Rice and Its Importance for Hill Farmers in Laos. Economic Botany, 50(4): 401-408. 1996. Glutinous or waxy rice is the most important crop for subsistence farming economies in the hills of Northern Laos. Hill farmers continue to use traditional varieties only. Geographical and political isolation have contributed towards their preservation. Traditional varieties are mainly of the japonica type, have a good yield potential, are well adapted to the local conditions, and represent a wide genetic diversity. Farmers interviewed prefer varieties with large panicles, planted 2.7 varieties on average, with 17, 30 and 53% of the area planted to early, medium and late varieties, respectively. Out of 544 traditional cultivars 95% flowered within 88–120 days after planting. Crops planted together with rice in order of importance are: maize, cucumber, chili, taro, and sesame. Farmers reported annual milled rice production of 125 kg per capita and rice self-sufficiency for 8 months for 1992 and 1993. Maize, cassava, and products from the forest are major rice substitutes and food security in remote areas could best be improved by increasing production of maize and cassava in combination with livestock production systems.     

Marginal Land-based Biomass Energy Production in China

Fast economic development in China has resulted in a significant increase in energy demand. Coal accounts for 70% of China's primary energy consumption and its combustion has caused many environmental and health problems. Energy security and environmental protection requirements are the main drivers for renewable energy development in China. Small farmland and food security make bioenergy derived from corn or sugarcane unacceptable to China: the focus should be on generating bioenergy from ligno-cellulosic feedstock sources. As China cannot afford biomass energy production from its croplands, marginal lands may play an important role in biomass energy production. Although on a small scale, marginal land has already been used for various purposes. It is estimated that some 45 million hm² of marginal land could be brought into high potential biomass energy production. For the success of such an initiative, it will likely be necessary to develop multipurpose plants. A case study, carried out on marginal land in Ningnan County, Sichuan Province with per capita cropland of 0.07 ha, indicated that some 380 000 tons of dry biomass could be produced each year from annual pruning of mulberry trees. This study supports the feasibility of producing large quantities of biomass from marginal land sources.     

城市居民食物氮消费变化及其环境负荷——以厦门市为例

食物消费是城市养分流动的重要环节,以厦门市为例,分析了1988—2009年居民食物氮素消费的变化特点,分析与其变化相关的经济、社会因素,并探讨了居民食物氮素消费变化所带来的环境负荷。研究结果表明,厦门市人均食物氮消费量变化与食物消费量变化并不完全一致,人均氮消费量2000年以前维持在3.29 kg N.人-1.a-1,2000年以后呈现波动性的增长,2004年达到最高值4.00 kg N.人-1.a-1。厦门市食物氮素消费总量增长幅度较大,由1988年的0.54万t增至2009年的1.50万t。同时,粮食在食物氮消费量中所占比例由45.5%下降到15.9%。畜禽肉、奶制品所占比例分别由25.0%和0.4%上升至29.8%和8.8%。通过将相关经济、社会因素与居民食物氮消费量进行相关性分析表明,人均可支配收入、食物价格指数、具有大学学历以上人口比重均与其联系较为密切,呈正相关;恩格尔系数、平均家庭人口数与居民食物氮消费量呈负相关。通过选取1988、1994、2001、2008年分析居民食物氮素消费造成的环境氮负荷发现,由其带来的环境氮负荷量由3509.12t增加至7629.36t,约90%的氮素进入了土壤和水体。其中,进入土壤的氮素占进入环境氮总量的比例由37%增长到60%,进入水体的氮素比例由57%降至35%。     

2004—2013年东北三省主要粮食作物生产碳足迹

东北是我国重要的粮食主产区,在国家粮食安全保障中起着至关重要的作用.作物生产是主要的碳排放源,探明不同作物生产的碳足迹差异,对促进低碳农业发展具有重要意义.本研究利用2004—2013年东北三省主要粮食作物(水稻、玉米和大豆)的产量、播种面积、农田生产投入等统计数据,估算了该区粮食生产碳足迹.结果表明: 2004—2013年,东北地区3种主要粮食作物中,水稻生产单位面积碳足迹最高,平均达到(2463±56) kg CE·hm^-2,玉米次之.玉米的碳足迹上升趋势最明显,从2004年的1164 kg CE·hm^-2增加到2013年的1768 kg CE·hm^-2,增速为67 kg CE·hm^-2·a^-1.在碳足迹构成中,化肥贡献最大,分别占水稻、玉米、大豆总碳投入的45%、90%、83%.水稻生产中灌溉用电所占比例为29%~42%,远高于玉米和大豆.东北三省碳足迹差异显著,3种作物的单位产量碳足迹均在吉林省最高,单位面积碳足迹均在黑龙江省最低.随着农村劳动力非农化和作物生产机械化的快速递增,未来粮食生产中柴油等机械化碳投入将快速增长.提升化肥利用效率、灌溉效率和机械化作业效率将是发展东北地区低碳农业的关键途径.     

Estimation of the amount of dietary starch available to different populations

The daily per capita availability of dietary starch was estimated for 38 selected countries using food disappearance data from the FAO provisional food balance sheets (1972-1974 average); starch availability was also estimated for Canada from 1960 to 1987 using Agriculture Canada disappearance data. Total starch availability varies fourfold among the difference countries; the availability of different sources of starch vary up to 80-fold. Wheat and roots-tubers were the major sources of starch in countries with low total starch availability. Either corn and pulses, rice and pulses, or wheat and potatoes were the major sources of starch in those countries with high total starch availability. Starch availability in Canada, both total and by source, has been relatively constant over the 27 years examined. Slight increases in total starch and starch from cereals and pulses in 1987 will need to be followed to determine whether these represent the beginning of a real change in per capita starch availability.     

Using C4 photosynthesis to increase the yield of rice-rationale and feasibility

90% of the world's rice is grown and consumed in Asia, with each hectare of rice-producing land providing food for 27 people. By 2050, because of population growth and increasing urbanisation, each remaining hectare will have to feed at least 43 people. This means that yields must be increased by at least 50% over the next 40 years to prevent mass malnutrition for the 700 million Asians that currently rely on rice for more than 60% of their daily calorific intake. Since predictive models suggest that yield increases of this magnitude can only be achieved by improving photosynthesis, and because evolution has increased photosynthetic efficiency by 50% in the form of the C4 pathway, one solution is to generate C4 rice. However, this is an ambitious goal that requires proof of concept before any major investment of time and money. Here, we discuss approaches that should allow proof of concept to be tested.     

Food Consumption and Nutrient Flows: Nitrogen in Sweden Since the 1870s

Changes in food consumption and related processes have a significant impact on the flow of nitrogen in the environment. This study identifies both flows within the system and emissions to the hydrosphere and atmosphere. A case study of an average inhabitant of the city of Linköping, Sweden, covers the years 1870, 1900, 1950, and 2000 and includes changes in food consumption and processing, agricultural production, and organic waste handling practices. Emissions to the hydrosphere from organic waste handling increased from 0.57 kilograms of nitrogen per capita per year (kg N/cap per year) to 3.1 kg N/cap per year, whereas the total flow of nitrogen to waste deposits grew from a negligible amount to 1.7 kg N/cap per year. The largest flow of nitrogen during the entire period came from fodder. The input of chemical fertilizer rose gradually to a high level of 15 kg N/cap per year in the year 2000. The total load per capita disposed of to the environment decreased during these 130 years by about 30%.     

Strategy and utilization of a herbicide resistance gene in two-line hybrid rice

Hybrid rice plays an important role in China's aim to improve rice production as it accounts for some 50% of rice planting area but produces about 60% of the total rice grain. However, the existing three-line system used in hybrid rice production has its limitations. The two-line system, which makes use of photoperiod-sensitive genic male-sterile (PGMS) and thermo-sensitive genic male-sterile (TGMS) lines to generate the male-sterile parental line, was developed to overcome some of these limitations. The sterility of the male-sterile line of two-line hybrid rice, however, fluctuates when the temperature-sensitive phase of fertility encounters abnormal low temperatures during hybrid seed production, which induces selfing and decreases the purity of hybrid. We describe here the strategy of utilizing a herbicide resistance gene in two-line hybrid rice to eliminate this fluctuation in the sterility of the P/TGMS lines during hybrid seed production and reports the development of the herbicide resistance restorer line Bar68-1 and its herbicide-resistant early season hybrid rice Xiang125s/Bar68-1. When the restorer line and its derived hybrid are herbicide resistant, the selfed seeds can be removed easily from the hybrid by herbicide spraying. A herbicide resistance gene bar was transferred into a restorer line by particle bombardment. The resulting transgenic restorer line Bar68-1 and its hybrid Xiang125 s/Bar68-1 inherited stable herbicide resistance. The purity of Xiang125s/Bar68-1 was increased by spraying the seed bed with herbicide, which resulted in a significant increase in yield, grain quality, and disease resistance in comparison to the controls in a regional trial.     

Pollination biology and seed production of dioeciousCaryodendron orinocense (Euphorbiaceae) in a plantation in coastal Ecuador

Caryodendron orinocense Karst. (Euphorbiaceae) is an important neotropical, dioecious crop tree providing oil—and protein-rich seeds. Increases in size and number of leaves, flowers, and fruits were estimated for 100 trees in a plantation in costal Ecuador. Height increase was one meter per year—female trees grew less than non-flowering and male individuals. Trees matured at about 4 m height, but flowering and production of fruits remained low until tree height exceeded 8 m. Flowering and leaf production started at the beginning of the rainy season, and flowers were pollinated by large flies. Foliage damage did not seriously reduce leaf number nor fruit production. The plantation studied yielded 150 kg seeds per hectare per year. A plantation with 10 m high trees and a sex ratio of nine females per male will produce 500 kg seeds per hectare per year after about 12 years. Production will increase much more in older plantations.     

Agriculturally induced vegetation change, 1950–1975

Changes in worldwide grain production area are analyzed to assess the impact of major agricultural activity onglobal biomass. During the 26-year study period, nearly 1% of the earth's ice-free land surface was converted to grain production. This increase in agricultural area reduced the planetary biomass; however, it had minimal effect on net primary productivity. Geographically, the overall change caused by increased grain production has been to redistribute the planetary biomass poleward.