A Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) to simulate the effects of fire on vegetation and bird communities in Pinus pinaster stands

Worldwide forests have been impacted by broad-scale anthropogenic pressures, such as fire and logging, leading to the disruption of the structure and functioning of these systems. The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) in predicting the tendencies of passerine bird communities in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) stands as a response to the changes induced by fire occurrence. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from which management strategies can be designed. The case of the pine stands of central Portugal was used to test the StDM performance in the scope of the wildfire problems. The datasets used in the dynamic model construction included the main gradients of environmental and biological characteristics of the studied maritime pine stands over space and time. The ecological integrity of the pine stands can be partly assessed by the observation of the occurrence of passerine indicators. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between conceptually isolated key-components of the studied ecosystems. The final model provided some basis to analyse the responses of selected passerine indicators to fire scenarios that characterize the region. In this context, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the passerine community dynamics by predicting the behavioural pattern of indicators roughly associated with their structural and functional composition and habitat main characteristics.     

Short‐term effects of a severe drought on avian diversity and abundance in a Pampas Agroecosystem

Agroecosystems are naturally variable at different scales showing strong environmental variations through time and in space. Therefore, temporal dynamics should be taken into account to understand the species‐habitat relationship and provide information for biodiversity management. Droughts are climatic events that introduce variations in environmental conditions by reducing food resources and are increasing in severity and frequency due to global climate change. In 2008, a severe drought occurred in the argentine Pampas, which allowed us to test its short‐term effect on avian diversity patterns according to different land uses. Also, we could test how variations in net primary productivity affected bird populations and explore the usefulness of this ecological process as an indicator of ecosystem service supply applicable to different ecological contexts. We surveyed bird diversity in two consecutive years (2007–2008) in the Rolling Pampas of Argentina, and we assessed environmental attributes at two spatial scales. We explored the relationship between bird diversity and an ecosystem services provision index (ESPI) that uses a proxy of net primary productivity and its intra‐annual variation to test its adequacy in the changing conditions, we conducted our surveys. Results showed that drought affected negatively both species richness and abundance as a consequence of net primary productivity reductions. There was not a clear association of diversity changes with land use, and it is probable that the effect of drought is a complex combination of productivity, land use and spatial scale. ESPI proved robust in front of the environmental changes, and its predictive capacity was better at larger scales. These results are promising for the assessment of ecosystem services provision in a context of global climate changes. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

Avian diversity and West Nile virus: testing associations between biodiversity and infectious disease risk

The emergence of several high profile infectious diseases in recent years has focused attention on our need to understand the ecological factors contributing to the spread of infectious diseases. West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease that was first detected in the United States in 1999. The factors accounting for variation in the prevalence of WNV are poorly understood, but recentideas suggesting links between high biodiversity and reduced vector-borne disease risk may help account for distribution patterns of this disease. Since wild birds are the primary reservoir hosts for WNV, we tested associations between passerine (Passeriform) bird diversity, non-passerine (all other orders) bird diversity and virus infection rates in mosquitoes and humans to examine the extent to which bird diversity is associated with WNV infection risk. We found t h at non-passerine species richness (number of non-passerine species) was significantly negatively correlated with both mosquito and human infection rates, whereas there was no significant association between passerine species richness and any measure of infection risk. Our findings suggest that non-passerine diversity may play a role in dampening WNV amplification rates in mosquitoes, minimizing human disease risk.     

Earlier breeding,lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird?

Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year‐to‐year variations on larger scales. Although such scale‐related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale‐dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large‐scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale‐related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the complexity of climate change effects on biodiversity.     

Predictors of mammal species richness in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

The management of multi-functional landscapes warrants better knowledge of environment-richness associations at varying disturbance levels and habitat gradients. Intensive land-use patterns for agricultural purposes lead to fragmentation of natural habitat resulting in biodiversity loss that can be measured using landscape metrics to assess mammalian richness. Since carnivores and herbivores are likely to show different responses to disturbance, we calculated carnivore, non-carnivore, and total mammal species richness from camera surveys using a first order Jackknife Estimator. Richness was compared along a habitat gradient comprising coastal forest, Acacia thicket, and highland in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used standardized OLS regression models to identify climatic and disturbance variables, and landscape metrics as predictors of species richness. The estimated total and non-carnivore species richness were highest in coastal forest, while carnivore species richness was highest in highland followed by coastal forest and Acacia thicket. Average monthly maximum temperature was a significant predictor of all richness groups, and precipitation of the wettest month and isothermality determined total and non-carnivore species richness, respectively. These climatic variables possibly limit species distribution because of physiological tolerance of the species. Total mammal richness was determined by mean shape (+) and habitat division (−) while diversity (+) and patch richness (−) explained carnivore species richness. Mean shape index (+) influenced non-carnivore richness. However, habitat division and patch richness negatively influenced total mammal richness. Though habitat patch size and contiguity had a weak positive prediction, these metrics demonstrated the importance of habitat connectivity for maintaining mammal richness. The identification of these climatic and landscape patterns is important to facilitate future landscape management for mammal conservation in forest-mosaics.     

The Influence of Vegetation Height Heterogeneity on Forest and Woodland Bird Species Richness across the United States

Avian diversity is under increasing pressures. It is thus critical to understand the ecological variables that contribute to large scale spatial distribution of avian species diversity. Traditionally, studies have relied primarily on two-dimensional habitat structure to model broad scale species richness. Vegetation vertical structure is increasingly used at local scales. However, the spatial arrangement of vegetation height has never been taken into consideration. Our goal was to examine the efficacies of three-dimensional forest structure, particularly the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation height in improving avian richness models across forested ecoregions in the U.S. We developed novel habitat metrics to characterize the spatial arrangement of vegetation height using the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset for the year 2000 (NBCD). The height-structured metrics were compared with other habitat metrics for statistical association with richness of three forest breeding bird guilds across Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes: a broadly grouped woodland guild, and two forest breeding guilds with preferences for forest edge and for interior forest. Parametric and non-parametric models were built to examine the improvement of predictability. Height-structured metrics had the strongest associations with species richness, yielding improved predictive ability for the woodland guild richness models (r² = ∼0.53 for the parametric models, 0.63 the non-parametric models) and the forest edge guild models (r² = ∼0.34 for the parametric models, 0.47 the non-parametric models). All but one of the linear models incorporating height-structured metrics showed significantly higher adjusted-r² values than their counterparts without additional metrics. The interior forest guild richness showed a consistent low association with height-structured metrics. Our results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of forest bird species. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness.     

Why do mountains support so many species of birds?

Although topographic complexity is often associated with high bird diversity at broad geographic scales, little is known about the relative contributions of geomorphologic heterogeneity and altitudinal climatic gradients found in mountains. We analysed the birds in the western mountains of the New World to examine the two‐fold effect of topography on species richness patterns, using two grains at the intercontinental extent and within temperate and tropical latitudes. Birds were also classified as montane or lowland, based on their overall distributions in the hemisphere. We estimated range in temperature within each cell and the standard deviation in elevation (topographic roughness) based on all pixels within each cell. We used path analysis to test for the independent effects of topographic roughness and temperature range on species richness while controlling for the collinearity between topographic variables. At the intercontinental extent, actual evapotranspiration (AET) was the primary driver of species richness patterns of all species taken together and of lowland species considered separately. In contrast, within‐cell temperature gradients strongly influenced the richness of montane species. Regional partitioning of the data also suggested that range in temperature either by itself or acting in combination with AET had the strongest “effect” on montane bird species richness everywhere. Topographic roughness had weaker “effects” on richness variation throughout, although its positive relationship with richness increased slightly in the tropics. We conclude that bird diversity gradients in mountains primarily reflect local climatic gradients. Widespread (lowland) species and narrow‐ranged (montane) species respond similarly to changes in the environment, differing only in that the richness of lowland species correlates better with broad‐scale climatic effects (AET), whereas mesoscale climatic variation accounts for richness patterns of montane species. Thus, latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in species richness can be explained through similar climatic‐based processes, as has long been argued.     

Elevational patterns and hierarchical determinants of biodiversity across microbial taxonomic scales

Microbial biogeography is gaining increasing attention due to recent molecular methodological advance. However, the diversity patterns and their environmental determinants across taxonomic scales are still poorly studied. By sampling along an extensive elevational gradient in subarctic ponds of Finland and Norway, we examined the diversity patterns of aquatic bacteria and fungi from whole community to individual taxa across taxonomic coverage and taxonomic resolutions. We further quantified cross‐phylum congruence in multiple biodiversity metrics and evaluated the relative importance of climate, catchment and local pond variables as the hierarchical drivers of biodiversity across taxonomic scales. Bacterial community showed significantly decreasing elevational patterns in species richness and evenness, and U‐shaped patterns in local contribution to beta diversity (LCBD). Conversely, no significant species richness and evenness patterns were found for fungal community. Elevational patterns in species richness and LCBD, but not in evenness, were congruent across bacterial phyla. When narrowing down the taxonomic scope towards higher resolutions, bacterial diversity showed weaker and more complex elevational patterns. Taxonomic downscaling also indicated a notable change in the relative importance of biodiversity determinants with stronger local environmental filtering, but decreased importance of climatic variables. This suggested that niche conservatism of temperature preference was phylogenetically deeper than that of water chemistry variables. Our results provide novel perspectives for microbial biogeography and highlight the importance of taxonomic scale dependency and hierarchical drivers when modelling biodiversity and species distribution responses to future climatic scenarios.     

Landscape heterogeneity metrics as indicators of bird diversity: Determining the optimal spatial scales in different landscapes

Species distribution models are often used to study the biodiversity of ecosystems. The modelling process uses a number of parameters to predict others, such as the occurrence of determinate species, population size, habitat suitability or biodiversity. It is well known that the heterogeneity of landscapes can lead to changes in species’ abundance and biodiversity. However, landscape metrics depend on maps and spatial scales when it comes to undertaking a GIS analysis.We explored the goodness of fit of several models using the metrics of landscape heterogeneity and altitude as predictors of bird diversity in different landscapes and spatial scales. Two variables were used to describe biodiversity: bird richness and trophic level diversity, both of which were obtained from a breeding bird survey by means of point counts. The relationships between biodiversity and landscape metrics were compared using multiple linear regressions. All of the analyses were repeated for 14 different spatial scales and for cultivated, forest and grassland environments to determine the optimal spatial scale for each landscape typology.Our results revealed that the relationships between species’ richness and landscape heterogeneity using 1:10,000 land cover maps were strongest when working on a spatial scale up to a radius of 125–250 m around the sampled point (circa 4.9–19.6 ha). Furthermore, the correlation between measures of landscape heterogeneity and bird diversity was greater in grasslands than in cultivated or forested areas. The multi-spatial scale approach is useful for (a) assessing the accuracy of surrogates of bird diversity in different landscapes and (b) optimizing spatial model procedures for biodiversity mapping, mainly over extensive areas.     

Summer vegetation, deglaciation and the anomalous bird diversity gradient in eastern North America

Aim Geographic variation in the species richness of birds has been shown to be strongly associated with annual water and energy levels (actual evapotranspiration, AET) at the global scale. However, the gradient in eastern North America appears to be anomalous, because richness is greatest around the Great Lakes, whereas AET is highest in the south‐eastern US. Here I examine if birds may be responding to vegetation produced during the breeding season rather than to annual production. Location North America east of longitude 98° W. Methods The bird richness pattern was examined using climatic variables, remotely sensed estimates of annual and seasonal plant biomass, and time since areas were exposed by the retreating Laurentide ice sheet from 20,000 to 6000 yr bp . Results Average summer GVI (Global Vegetation Index, derived from NDVI) was found to be positively linearly associated with richness, explaining 82% of the variance, whereas the relationships between richness and annual measures of both AET and GVI were curvilinear. The pattern of retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet explained an additional 6% of the variance in richness, consistent with a previous analysis of Canadian birds. Main conclusions In eastern North America, a seasonal variable associated with plant production explains the diversity gradient rather than the annual measures, but it does not undermine a general conclusion that bird diversity is closely linked with plant biomass. Further, both contemporary and historical factors appear to influence the gradient, and an association between bird richness and the geographic pattern of glacial retreat is detectable in both climatic and plant‐biomass models of bird diversity.     

Spatial patterns of woody plant and bird diversity: functional relationships or environmental effects?

Aim To understand cross‐taxon spatial congruence patterns of bird and woody plant species richness. In particular, to test the relative roles of functional relationships between birds and woody plants, and the direct and indirect environmental effects on broad‐scale species richness of both groups. Location Kenya. Methods Based on comprehensive range maps of all birds and woody plants (native species > 2.5 m in height) in Kenya, we mapped species richness of both groups. We distinguished species richness of four different avian frugivore guilds (obligate, partial, opportunistic and non‐frugivores) and fleshy‐fruited and non‐fleshy‐fruited woody plants. We used structural equation modelling and spatial regressions to test for effects of functional relationships (resource–consumer interactions and vegetation structural complexity) and environment (climate and habitat heterogeneity) on the richness patterns. Results Path analyses suggested that bird and woody plant species richness are linked via functional relationships, probably driven by vegetation structural complexity rather than trophic interactions. Bird species richness was determined in our models by both environmental variables and the functional relationships with woody plants. Direct environmental effects on woody plant richness differed from those on bird richness, and different avian consumer guilds showed distinct responses to climatic factors when woody plant species richness was included in path models. Main conclusions Our results imply that bird and woody plant diversity are linked at this scale via vegetation structural complexity, and that environmental factors differ in their direct effects on plants and avian trophic guilds. We conclude that climatic factors influence broad‐scale tropical bird species richness in large part indirectly, via effects on plants, rather than only directly as often assumed. This could have important implications for future predictions of animal species richness in response to climate change.     

The relationship between local and regional diversity of indigenous forest fauna in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

The relationship between local and regional diversity was tested by regressing local community richness against regional species diversity for three taxa, birds, butterflies and mammals, in subtropical forest. The quadratic model best fits the relationship between local and regional diversity for birds. Local bird species richness is theoretically independent of the size of the regional pool of species and may represent saturated communities. A linear model best describes the relationship for mammals and butterflies. For mammals, the slope is shallow (0.264) and regional richness overestimates local species richness, suggesting communities are undersaturated. Extinction filtering may explain this pattern. Past climatic changes have filtered out many mammalian species, these changes have been too recent for autochthanous speciation, and the relatively low vagility of mammals has prevented extensive recolonisation. Differences in the nature of the diversity relationship between taxa are as much due to independent evolutionary histories as to differences in vagility and colonising potential. A pervasive role is suggested for regional biogeographic processes in the development of faunal assemblage structure. Large-scale processes are not considered in current conservation plans. We encourage the shift of conservation emphasis from local ecological processes and species interactions, to whole communities and consideration of regional processes.     

Local temperature fine-tunes the timing of spring migration in birds

Evidence for climate-driven phenological changes is rapidly increasing at all trophic levels. Our current poor knowledge of the detailed control of bird migration from the level of genes and hormonal control to direct physiological and behavioral responses hampers our ability to understand and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations and the dependence of correlations on species-specific migratory strategy. We analyze phenological patterns of the entire spring migration period in 12 Palaearctic passerine species, drawing on long-term data collected at three locations along a longitudinal gradient situated close to their northern European breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets of migratory populations differentially. Species wintering closer to the breeding areas were affected more than were those travelling longer distances and this pattern was strongest for the earliest subsets of the population. Overall, our results suggest that at least early subsets of the population are affected by local conditions and early birds use local conditions to fine-tune the date of their spring arrival while individuals arriving later are driven by other factors than local conditions e.g. endogenous control. Understanding what cues migratory organisms use to arrive at an optimum time is important for increasing our knowledge of fundamental issues like decision making in organisms during migration and is crucial for future protection of migratory organisms.     

Consequences of organic farming and landscape heterogeneity for species richness and abundance of farmland birds

It has been suggested that organic farming may benefit farmland biodiversity more in landscapes that have lost a significant part of its former landscape heterogeneity. We tested this hypothesis by comparing bird species richness and abundance during the breeding season in organic and conventional farms, matched to eliminate all differences not directly linked to the farming practice, situated in either homogeneous plains with only a little semi-natural habitat or in heterogeneous farmland landscapes with abundant field borders and semi-natural grasslands. The effect of farm management on species richness interacted with landscape structure, such that there was a positive relationship between organic farming and diversity only in homogeneous landscapes. This pattern was mainly dependent on the species richness of passerine birds, in particular those that were invertebrate feeders. Species richness of non-passerines was positively related to organic farming independent of the landscape context. Bird abundance was positively related to landscape heterogeneity but not to farm management. This was mainly because the abundance of passerines, particularly invertebrate feeders, was positively related to landscape heterogeneity. We suggest that invertebrate feeders particularly benefit from organic farming because of improved foraging conditions through increased invertebrate abundances in otherwise depauperate homogeneous landscapes. Although many seed-eaters also benefit from increased insect abundance, they may also utilize crop seed resources in homogeneous landscapes and conventional farms. The occurrence of an interactive effect of organic farming and landscape heterogeneity on bird diversity will have consequences for the optimal allocation of resources to restore the diversity of farmland birds.     

Climatic refugia and reduced extinction correlate with underdispersion in mammals and birds in Africa

Macroevolutionary patterns, often inferred from metrics of community relatedness, are often used to ascertain major evolutionary processes shaping communities. These patterns have been shown to be informative of biogeographic barriers, of habitat suitability and invasibility (especially with regard to environmental filtering), and of regions that function as evolutionary cradles (i.e., sources of diversification) or museums (i.e., regions of reduced extinction). Here, we analyzed continental datasets of mammal and bird distributions to identify primary drivers of community evolution on the African continent for mostly endothermic vertebrates. We find that underdispersion (i.e., relatively low phylogenetic diversity compared to species richness) closely correlates with specific ecoregions that have been identified as climatic refugia in the literature, regardless of whether these specific regions have been touted as cradles or museums. Using theoretical models of identical communities that differ only with respect to extinction rates, we find that even small suppressions of extinction rates can result in underdispersed communities, supporting the hypothesis that climatic stability can lead to underdispersion. We posit that large‐scale patterns of under‐ and overdispersion between regions of similar species richness are more reflective of a particular region’s extinction potential, and that the very nature of refugia can lead to underdispersion via the steady accumulation of species richness through diversification within the same ecoregion during climatic cycles. Thus, patterns of environmental filtering can be obfuscated by environments that coincide with biogeographic refugia, and considerations of regional biogeographic history are paramount for inferring macroevolutionary processes.     

Determinants of bird species richness: role of climate and vegetation structure at a regional scale

We examined the respective roles of climate and vegetation structure on geographical variation in bird species richness. The Province of Buenos Aires (central-eastern Argentina) was divided into 146 squares of 50 km on a side. For each square we evaluated the number of bird species, the value of thirteen climatic variables, and the value of a vegetation strata index. The climatic matrix was analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and the first factors resulting from PCA were considered as multifactorial climatic gradients. Simple and Partial Correlation Analysis among bird species richness, vegetation strata, and the first two factors derived from PCA (65% of total variation) indicated that bird richness distribution was determined by the availability of vegetation strata, associated with different vegetation types that, at the same time, were influenced by the climatic conditions summarized in the first climatic factor (a gradient of precipitation, relative humidity, annual termical amplitude, and frost occurrence). This relationships reflect the complexity of factors that can act directly as well as indirectly on the geographical patterns in species richness. Also, we evaluated the importance of study scale comparing our results with previous studies at macrogeographic and local scales, found out that the vegetation structure was the principal determinant of bird species richness at this three geographical scales.     

Comparisons of habitat structure and plant,arthropod and bird diversity between mainland and island sites near Perth,Western Australia

Detailed estimations of habitat structure, plant species diversity and diversity of arthropods were made at six 4.0 ha sites, two on mainland Western Australia near Perth and four on adjacent islands. The number of resident passerine bird species was also recorded at each site. Plant species diversity, and horizontal foliage diversity (=patchiness) varied only slightly between sites. There were significant positive correlations between arthropod Order diversity and bird diversity, and between vertical foliage diversity and bird diversity. In both Acacia and dune scrub, the Rottnest Island sites had more individuals of arthropods than the mainland sites but these belonged to fewer Orders. Numerical imbalance between arthropod Orders on Rottnest Island probably results from diminution of predators (passerine birds) there. As the actual number of arthropods is higher on the islands, the absence of so many species of passerine birds may result from other factors (ecological and historical).     

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13‐year study of temperate woodland birds in south‐eastern Australia to quantify how different‐sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short‐term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long‐term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970–2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old‐growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short‐term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old‐growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed—and large birds elevated—in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different‐sized bird species in agriculture‐dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings—especially currently climatically wet areas—may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small‐bodied taxa.     

Predicting the trends of vertebrate species richness as a response to wind farms installation in mountain ecosystems of northwest Portugal

The main objectives of this work were to examine the performance of a holistic stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) in predicting the trends of the vertebrate species richness (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) in response to changes induced by the ongoing wind farm installation in mountain areas of northwest Portugal. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to estimate the ecological status of changed ecosystems that have been damaged by anthropogenic disturbances. The performance of two complementary temporal approaches was tested, taking into account either annual or seasonal influences. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients of environmental changes and was sampled from 2004 to 2006. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between the selected ecological components, such as the species richness of each vertebrate group and the structural changes in habitat conditions. The results show the capacity of the model in capturing the dynamics of the studied system by predicting consistent trends for the global vertebrate species richness under complex and variable environmental scenarios. The average annual approach is considered sufficient for the aims of the most Environmental Impact Assessments while the seasonal approach is recommended for more detailed studies, namely regarding specific population, guilds or community dynamics.