Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming

Projected temperature increases under global warming could benefit southern tree species by providing them the optimal growing temperature and could be detrimental to northern species by exposing them to the supra optimal growing temperatures. This benefit-detriment trade-off could increase the competitive advantage of southern species in the northern species range and cause the increase or even dominance of southern species in the northern domain. However, the optimum temperature for photosynthesis of C3 plants may increase due to CO₂ enrichment. An increase in the optimum temperature could greatly reduce the benefit-detriment effect. In this study, we coupled a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) and a forest GAP model (LINKAGES) with a spatially dynamic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to study how an optimum temperature increase could affect forest landscape response due to global warming. We simulated 360 years of forest landscape change in the Boundary Water Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota, which is transitional between boreal and temperate forest. Our results showed that, under the control scenario of continuing the historic 1984–1993 mean climate (mainly temperature, precipitation and CO₂), the BWCA will become a spruce-fir dominated boreal forest. However, under the scenario of predicted climatic change [the 2000–2099 climates are predicted by Canadian Climate Center (CCC), followed by 200 years of continuing the predicted 2090–2099 mean climate], the BWCA will become a pine-dominated mixed forest. If the optimum temperature increases gradually with [CO₂] (the increase in optimum temperature is assumed to change gradually from 0 °C in year 2000 to 5 °C in year 2099 when [CO₂] reaches 711 ppm and stabilizes at 5 °C after year 2099), the BWCA would remain a fir-dominated boreal forest in areas with relatively high water-holding capacity, but not in areas with relatively low water-holding capacity. Our results suggest that the [CO₂] induced increases in optimum temperature could substantially reduce forest landscape change caused by global warming. However, not all tree species would be able to successfully adapt to future warming as predicted by CCC, regardless of optimum temperature acclimations.     

The role of forest residues in the accounting for the global warming potential of bioenergy

Bioenergy makes up a significant portion of the global primary energy pie, and its production from modernized technology is foreseen to substantially increase. The climate neutrality of biogenic CO₂ emissions from bioenergy grown from sustainably managed biomass resource pools has recently been questioned. The temporary change caused in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from biogenic carbon fluxes was found to be largely dependent on the length of biomass rotation period. In this work, we also show the importance of accounting for the unutilized biomass that is left to decompose in the resource pool and how the characterization factor for the climate impact of biogenic CO₂ emissions changes whether residues are removed for bioenergy or not. With the case of Norwegian Spruce biomass grown in Norway, we found that significantly more biogenic CO₂ emissions should be accounted towards contributing to global warming potential when residues are left in the forest. For a 100‐year time horizon, the global warming potential bio factors suggest that between 44 and 62% of carbon‐flux, neutral biogenic CO₂ emissions at the energy conversion plant should be attributed to causing equivalent climate change potential as fossil‐based CO₂ emissions. For a given forest residue extraction scenario, the same factor should be applied to the combustion of any combination of stem and forest residues. Life cycle analysis practitioners should take these impacts into account and similar region/species specific factors should be developed.     

Simple carbon assimilation response functions from atmospheric CO2, and daily temperature and shortwave radiation

A global ‘CO₂ fertilizer effect’ multiplier is often used in crop or ecosystem models because of its simplicity. However, this approach does not take into account the interaction between CO₂, temperature and light on assimilation. This omission can lead to significant under- or overestimation of the magnitude of beneficial effects from elevated CO₂, depending on environmental conditions. We use a mechanistic model of the biochemistry of photosynthesis to represent the response of net assimilation to different levels of CO₂, temperature and radiation, on the daily time scale. Instantaneous assimilation rates for an idealized canopy model are integrated through diurnal cycles of environmental variables derived from historical climate data at three locations in North America. The calculated CO₂ fertilizer effect is greatest at high light and warm temperatures. The results are summarized by assimilation response surfaces specified by the CO₂ concentration, the canopy leaf area index, and by daily values of temperature and radiation available from climatic records. These summary functions are suitable for incorporation into crop or ecosystem models for predicting carbon assimilation or biomass production on a daily time step. An example application of the function reveals that for a relatively cool, high latitude location, the beneficial effects from a CO₂ doubling would be negligible during the early spring, even assuming a + 4°C global warming scenario. In contrast, the beneficial effects from increasing CO₂ at a relatively warm, lower latitude location are greatest in the spring, but decline in late summer because of excessively warm temperatures with a + 4°C global warming.     

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO₂ released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO₂ sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO₂ emissions from permanent C losses, CO₂ emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO₂ molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO₂ impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO₂ emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWP_bio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO₂ emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.     

Life cycle sustainability assessment of autonomous heavy‐duty trucks

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are emerging technologies expected to bring important environmental, social, and economic improvements in transportation systems. Given their implications in terms of air quality and sustainable and safer movement of goods, heavy‐duty trucks (HDTs), carrying the majority of U.S. freight, are considered an ideal domain for the application of CAV technology. An input–output (IO) model is developed based on the Eora database—a detailed IO database that consists of national IO tables, covering almost the entire global economy. Using the Eora‐based IO model, this study quantifies and assesses the environmental, economic, and social impacts of automated diesel and battery electric HDTs based on 20 macro‐level indicators. The life cycle sustainability performances of these HDTs are then compared to that of a conventional diesel HDT. The study finds an automated diesel HDT to cause 18% more fatalities than an automated electric HDT. The global warming potential (GWP) of automated diesel HDTs is estimated to be 4.7 thousand metric tons CO₂‐eq. higher than that of automated electric HDTs. The health impact costs resulting from an automated diesel HDT are two times higher than that of an automated electric HDT. Overall, the results also show that automation brings important improvements to the selected sustainability indicators of HDTs such as global warming potential, life cycle cost, GDP, decrease in import, and increase in income. The findings also show that there are significant trade‐offs particularly between mineral and fossil resource losses and environmental gains, which are likely to complicate decision‐making processes regarding the further development and commercialization of the technology.     

Future atmospheric CO2 leads to delayed autumnal senescence

Growing seasons are getting longer, a phenomenon partially explained by increasing global temperatures. Recent reports suggest that a strong correlation exists between warming and advances in spring phenology but that a weaker correlation is evident between warming and autumnal events implying that other factors may be influencing the timing of autumnal phenology. Using freely rooted, field‐grown Populus in two Free Air CO₂ Enrichment Experiments (AspenFACE and PopFACE), we present evidence from two continents and over 2 years that increasing atmospheric CO₂ acts directly to delay autumnal leaf coloration and leaf fall. In an atmosphere enriched in CO₂ (by ～45% of the current atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm) the end of season decline in canopy normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) – a commonly used global index for vegetation greenness – was significantly delayed, indicating a greener autumnal canopy, relative to that in ambient CO₂. This was supported by a significant delay in the decline of autumnal canopy leaf area index in elevated as compared with ambient CO₂, and a significantly smaller decline in end of season leaf chlorophyll content. Leaf level photosynthetic activity and carbon uptake in elevated CO₂ during the senescence period was also enhanced compared with ambient CO₂. The findings reveal a direct effect of rising atmospheric CO₂, independent of temperature in delaying autumnal senescence for Populus, an important deciduous forest tree with implications for forest productivity and adaptation to a future high CO₂ world.     

陆地生态系统土壤CO2排放对模拟增温的响应特征及影响因素

全球变暖已经成为不争的事实,陆地生态系统碳循环的研究受到了各界广泛关注,是当前全球变化研究中的重点。土壤CO₂排放是陆地生态系统与大气间二氧化碳交换的最大通量之一,当前陆地生态系统中土壤CO₂排放如何响应全球气候变暖及其影响因素仍不清楚,限制了对土壤碳循环过程及影响机制的深入认识。旨在明确全球变暖背景下陆地生态系统中土壤CO₂排放格局及影响因素。基于Web of Science、PubMed和中国知网等中英文期刊数据库,充分收集全球范围内的相关野外试验文献81篇,提取出65个研究位置和213组相关研究数据,采用Meta分析方法探讨陆地生态系统土壤CO₂排放对增温的响应特征,分析其与海拔、气候、土壤含水量、容重(BD)、pH、全氮(TN)和土壤有机碳(SOC)的相关关系。结果表明:陆地生态系统中土壤CO₂排放对增温整体有显著的正向响应,在农、林、草生态系统中,增温使土壤CO₂排放分别显著增加13.1%、18.0%、5.9% (P<0.05),森林生态系统对增温响应的正效应最强烈;增温能在短时期内促进土壤呼吸,但随着增温持续时间增加,土壤呼吸对温度的敏感性会降低,对温度变化产生适应性,从而使其对增温的响应能力减弱;响应特征受到环境因子、土壤特性以及其他试验条件等的影响,绝大多数条件下对增温表现出显著的正响应特征,不同影响因子之间共同作用、相互影响。增温通常能够改变植物生物量、土壤养分含量及微生物数量和活性,从而影响到植被根际呼吸和土壤呼吸速率。相关分析表明,海拔对土壤CO₂排放有显著负向影响,而年均气温、年均降水量、土壤含水量和仪器嵌入土壤深度则对土壤CO₂排放产生显著正向影响。这些结果对于理解全球土壤CO₂排放的时空变化格局有重要意义,也为准确评价全球变暖背景下土壤碳汇功能及其持续性提供理论依据。     

Vegetation-climate feedbacks in a greenhouse world

The potential for feedbacks between terrestrial vegetation, climate, and the atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure have been addressed by modelling. Previous research has established that under global warming and CO₂ enrichment, the stomatal conductance of vegetation tends to decrease, causing a warming effect on top of the driving change in greenhouse warming. At the global scale, this positive feedback is ultimately changed to a negative feedback through changes in vegetation structure. In spatial terms this structural feedback has a variable geographical pattern in terms of magnitude and sign. At high latitudes, increases in vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height cause a positive feedback, and warming through reductions in the winter snow-cover albedo. At lower latitudes when vegetation becomes more sparse with warming, the higher albedo of the underlying soil leads to cooling. However, the largest area effects are of negative feedbacks caused by increased evaporative cooling with increasing LAI. These effects do not include feedbacks on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, through changes in the carbon cycle of the vegetation. Modelling experiments, with biogeochemical, physiological and structural feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂, but with no changes in precipitation, ocean activity or sea ice formation, have shown that a consequence of the CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation will be a reduction of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in the order of 12% by the year 2100 and a reduced global warming by 0.7°C, in a total greenhouse warming of 3.9°C.     

Intercountry inequality on greenhouse gas emissions and world levels: An integrated analysis through general distributive sustainability indexes

Up until now, analyses of the inter-country distribution of pollutant emissions have not paid sufficient attention to the implications that, in terms of global sustainability, the combined evolution of the global world average entails. In this context, this paper proposes the use of general distributive sustainability indexes in order to make a comprehensive examination of the international equity factor and also the mean (world) factor in this field. The proposed methodology, which is adapted from the welfare and inequality economics literature, is implemented empirically in order to explore the evolution of the greenhouse gases and its main components: CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O during the period 1990–2012. The main results found are as follows: firstly, typically, the general distributive sustainability associated with the overall greenhouse gases in per capita terms increased over the global period but, contrarily, it seems to decrease since 2000; secondly, typically this last reduction is basically explained by the increase in world mean average, given the clear reduction on cross-country inequalities; thirdly, the analysis of different gases also points out some differences in temporal variations and depending on the index used. These results would seem to be relevant in policy and academic terms.     

Long-term CO2 production from deeply weathered soils of a tropical rain forest: evidence for a potential positive feedback to climate warming

Currently, it is unknown what role tropical forest soils will play in the future global carbon cycle under higher temperatures. Many tropical forests grow on deeply weathered soils and although it is generally accepted that soil carbon decomposition increases with higher temperatures, it is not known whether subsurface carbon pools are particularly responsive to increasing soil temperatures. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) diffusing out of soils is an important flux in the global carbon. Although soil CO₂ efflux has been the subject of many studies in recent years, it remains difficult to deduct controls of this flux because of the different sources that produce CO₂ and because potential environmental controls like soil temperature and soil moisture often covary. Here, we report results of a 5‐year study in which we measured soil CO₂ production on two deeply weathered soil types at different depths in an old‐growth tropical wet forest in Costa Rica. Three sites were developed on old river terraces (old alluvium) and the other three were developed on old lava flows (residual). Annual soil CO₂ efflux varied between 2.8–3.6 μmol CO₂‐C m^?2 s^?1 (old alluvium) and 3.4–3.9 μmol CO₂‐C m^?2 s^?1 (residual). More than 75% of the CO₂ was produced in the upper 0.5 m (including litter layer) and less than 7% originated from the soil below 1 m depth. This low contribution was explained by the lack of water stress in this tropical wet forest which has resulted in very low root biomass below 2 m depth. In the top 0.5 m CO₂ production was positively correlated with both temperature and soil moisture; between 0.6 and 2 m depth CO₂ production correlated negatively with soil moisture in one soil and positively with photosynthetically active radiation in the other soil type. Below 2 m soil CO₂ production strongly increased with increasing temperature. In combination with reduced tree growth that has been shown for this ecosystem, this would be a strong positive feedback to ecosystem warming.     

Are there links between responses of soil microbes and ecosystem functioning to elevated CO2, N deposition and warming? A global perspective

In recent years, there has been an increase in research to understand how global changes’ impacts on soil biota translate into altered ecosystem functioning. However, results vary between global change effects, soil taxa, and ecosystem processes studied, and a synthesis of relationships is lacking. Therefore, here we initiate such a synthesis to assess whether the effect size of global change drivers (elevated CO₂, N deposition, and warming) on soil microbial abundance is related with the effect size of these drivers on ecosystem functioning (plant biomass, soil C cycle, and soil N cycle) using meta‐analysis and structural equation modeling. For N deposition and warming, the global change effect size on soil microbes was positively associated with the global change effect size on ecosystem functioning, and these relationships were consistent across taxa and ecosystem processes. However, for elevated CO₂, such links were more taxon and ecosystem process specific. For example, fungal abundance responses to elevated CO₂ were positively correlated with those of plant biomass but negatively with those of the N cycle. Our results go beyond previous assessments of the sensitivity of soil microbes and ecosystem processes to global change, and demonstrate the existence of general links between the responses of soil microbial abundance and ecosystem functioning. Further we identify critical areas for future research, specifically altered precipitation, soil fauna, soil community composition, and litter decomposition, that are need to better quantify the ecosystem consequences of global change impacts on soil biodiversity.     

Decomposition of Organic Carbon in Fine Soil Particles Is Likely More Sensitive to Warming than in Coarse Particles: An Incubation Study with Temperate Grassland and Forest Soils in Northern China

It is widely recognized that global warming promotes soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, and soils thus emit more CO₂ into the atmosphere because of the warming; however, the response of SOC decomposition to this warming in different soil textures is unclear. This lack of knowledge limits our projection of SOC turnover and CO₂ emission from soils after future warming. To investigate the CO₂ emission from soils with different textures, we conducted a 107-day incubation experiment. The soils were sampled from temperate forest and grassland in northern China. The incubation was conducted over three short-term cycles of changing temperature from 5°C to 30°C, with an interval of 5°C. Our results indicated that CO₂ emissions from sand (>50 µm), silt (2–50 µm), and clay (<2 µm) particles increased exponentially with increasing temperature. The sand fractions emitted more CO₂ (CO₂-C per unit fraction-C) than the silt and clay fractions in both forest and grassland soils. The temperature sensitivity of the CO₂ emission from soil particles, which is expressed as Q₁₀, decreased in the order clay>silt>sand. Our study also found that nitrogen availability in the soil facilitated the temperature dependence of SOC decomposition. A further analysis of the incubation data indicated a power-law decrease of Q₁₀ with increasing temperature. Our results suggested that the decomposition of organic carbon in fine-textured soils that are rich in clay or silt could be more sensitive to warming than those in coarse sandy soils and that SOC might be more vulnerable in boreal and temperate regions than in subtropical and tropical regions under future warming.     

The Paleogene atmospheric CO2 concentrations reconstructed using stomatal analysis of fossil Metasequoia needles

During the Paleogene, the Earth experienced a global greenhouse climate, which was much warmer and more humid than the present climate. The present global warming is ascribed to increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂ caused by human activity since the industrial revolution; therefore, knowledge of the role of atmospheric CO₂ in the thermal climate during the Paleogene will be helpful for understanding current and future climate. However, unlike for the late Cenozoic, atmospheric CO₂ reconstructions for the Paleogene are still inconsistent and vary between preindustrial-level to values over 4000 ppmv. In this study, we reconstructed the levels of atmospheric CO₂ in the early and middle Paleocene and middle Eocene based on the stomatal index of fossil Metasequoia needles collected from four fossil sites in Canada and Japan. We found the atmospheric CO₂ levels during the early and middle Paleocene to be similar to that of the present, and up to twice the present atmospheric CO₂ level was found during the middle Eocene. Our estimated atmospheric CO₂ level supports the hypothesis that the climate changes during the Paleogene cannot be explained merely by atmospheric CO₂ variations, which suggests that atmospheric CO₂ might not have always played a critical role in climate change during these ancient epochs and therefore cannot be a direct analogy for the current global warming.     

Using soil sensing technology to examine interactions and controls between ectomycorrhizal growth and environmental factors on soil CO2 dynamics

Soils play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet the biophysical factors regulating soil CO₂ dynamics remain unclear. We combined high-frequency in situ observations of fine roots and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi with data from multiple soil sensor arrays to examine the biophysical interactions influencing soil CO₂ production for one year in a mixed conifer forest. Using structural equation modeling we constructed a hypothesized model to test for causal interactions among environmental factors, biotic factors, and soil CO₂ dynamics throughout the soil profile. According to our model, seasonal variation in CO₂ production was significantly influenced by EM rhizomorph production, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Fine root production, on the other hand, did not appear to significantly influence soil CO₂ production. The relationship between EM rhizomorph production and soil CO₂ production was also supported by a zero temporal lag between these two measurements in a cross-correlation analysis. In contrast, CO₂ production increased before fine root production suggesting that these two measurements were decoupled in time. Results from this study highlight the need to better understand differences in carbon allocation between plant roots and EM fungi to improve our predictions of soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.     

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2

Increased atmospheric pCO₂ is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO₂. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO₂ and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming.     

Responses of grassland production to single and multiple global environmental changes

In this century, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause warmer surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, reactive nitrogen is entering natural systems at unprecedented rates. These global environmental changes have consequences for the functioning of natural ecosystems, and responses of these systems may feed back to affect climate and atmospheric composition. Here, we report plant growth responses of an ecosystem exposed to factorial combinations of four expected global environmental changes. We exposed California grassland to elevated CO₂, temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition for five years. Root and shoot production did not respond to elevated CO₂ or modest warming. Supplemental precipitation led to increases in shoot production and offsetting decreases in root production. Supplemental nitrate deposition increased total production by an average of 26%, primarily by stimulating shoot growth. Interactions among the main treatments were rare. Together, these results suggest that production in this grassland will respond minimally to changes in CO₂ and winter precipitation, and to small amounts of warming. Increased nitrate deposition would have stronger effects on the grassland. Aside from this nitrate response, expectations that a changing atmosphere and climate would promote carbon storage by increasing plant growth appear unlikely to be realized in this system.     

Environmental policy and the greenhouse effect

Emissions, resulting from human activity, are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This, in turn, is causing an additional average warming of the Earth's surface. This article presents an overview of recent developments in the international discussion on climate change, taking into account the work of other organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The long term and global character of the climate change problem requires an international long term strategy based on internationally agreed principles such as sustainable development and the precautionary principle. Research is needed to further develop risk assessment and environmental quality standards, from which emission targets can be derived.As a first step, governments of many industrialized countries have already set provisional national CO₂ emission targets, aimed at stabilization at present levels by the year 2000 and, in some cases, reductions thereafter.Under the auspices of United Nations, negotiations have begun on an international framework climate convention and associated agreements, on, for example, greenhouse gas emissions, forestry and funding mechanisms. Obligations imposed on individual nations may be expected to reflect their responsibility for greenhouse warming; this paper presents some views on the equity of burden sharing.     

How do elevated [CO2], warming, and reduced precipitation interact to affect soil moisture and LAI in an old field ecosystem?

Soil moisture content and leaf area index (LAI) are properties that will be particularly important in mediating whole system responses to the combined effects of elevated atmospheric [CO₂], warming and altered precipitation. Warming and drying will likely reduce soil moisture, and this effect may be exacerbated when these factors are combined. However, elevated [CO₂] may increase soil moisture contents and when combined with warming and drying may partially compensate for their effects. The response of LAI to elevated [CO₂] and warming will be closely tied to soil moisture status and may mitigate or exacerbate the effects of global change on soil moisture. Using open-top chambers (4-m diameter), the interactive effects of elevated [CO₂], warming, and differential irrigation on soil moisture availability were examined in the OCCAM (Old-Field Community Climate and Atmospheric Manipulation) experiment at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in eastern Tennessee. Warming consistently reduced soil moisture contents and this effect was exacerbated by reduced irrigation. However, elevated [CO₂] mitigated the effects of warming and drying on soil moisture. LAI was determined using an AccuPAR ceptometer and both the leaf area duration (LAD) and canopy size were increased by irrigation and elevated [CO₂]. Changes in LAI were closely linked to soil moisture status. The climate of the southeastern United States is predicted to be warmer and drier in the future, and this research suggests that although elevated [CO₂] will ameliorate the effects of warming and drying, losses of soil moisture will cause declines in the LAI of old field ecosystems in the future.     

Soil warming and trace gas fluxes: experimental design and preliminary flux results

We conducted several experiments to determine a procedure for uniformly warming soil 5° C above ambient using a buried heating cable. These experiments produced a successful design that could: 1) maintain a temperature difference of 5° C over a wide range of environmental conditions; 2) reduce inter-cable temperture variability to ca. 1.5° C; 3) maintain a temperature difference of 5° C near the edges of the plot; and 4) respond rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition, this design required electrical power only 42% of the time. Preliminary measurements indicate that heating increased CO₂ emission by a factor of ca. 1.6 and decreased the C concentration in the O soil horizon by as much as 36%. In addition, warming the soil accelerated the emergence and early growth of the wild lily of the valley (Maianthemum canadense Desf.). The relationship between CO₂ flux and soil temperature derived from our soil warming experiment was consistent with data from other hardwood forests around the world. Since the other hardwood forests were warmed naturally, it appears that for soil respiration, warming the soil with buried heating cables differs little from natural, aboveground warming. By warming soil beyond the range of natural variability, a multi-site, long-term soil warming experiment may be valuable in helping us understand how ecosystems will respond to global warming.     

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%–12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO₂. Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle‐climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions now and in future, and to CO₂ from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO₂ from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non‐CO₂ livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO₂ emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal.