基于景观镶嵌度指数的森林破碎化模式动态——以美国俄勒冈州为例

有效的景观模式特征评价及其变动预测是合理调控和管理森林景观、维持景观安全格局的基本前提.利用3期美国国家土地覆盖数据库(1992、2001和2006年),采用景观镶嵌度指数与马尔科夫模型相结合的方法,分析了美国俄勒冈州的森林破碎化模式及森林与其他土地利用类型空间交互特征的变化.结果表明: 景观镶嵌度模型中,开发主导的景观镶嵌类型(D)转变为单一的开发类型(DD)的概率最大,为0.319,说明城市化是推动区域景观格局变化的主要动力;森林安全度模型中,主要为农业和开发景观镶嵌类型(ad)的森林损失率最高,表明在城市与农业占主导的景观上森林被吞噬的可能性最大;稳态分布表明,森林破碎化趋势日益加剧,到稳定状态时森林占总区域的面积比例不到50%,空间分布趋向于混合型的景观格局.景观镶嵌度模型2006年模拟值与实际值Kappa系数达到0.82,模型精度较高;森林安全度模型Kappa系数为0.21,模型精度较差.     

Bird diversity and endemism along a land‐use gradient in Madagascar: The conservation value of vanilla agroforests

Land‐use change is the most important driver of biodiversity loss worldwide and particularly so in the tropics, where natural habitats are transformed into large‐scale monocultures or heterogeneous landscape mosaics of largely unknown conservation value. Using birds as an indicator taxon, we evaluated the conservation value of a landscape mosaic in northeastern Madagascar, a biodiversity hotspot and the center of global vanilla production. We assessed bird species richness and composition by conducting point counts across seven prevalent land‐use types (forest‐ and fallow‐derived vanilla agroforests, woody and herbaceous fallow that are part of a shifting cultivation system, rice paddy, forest fragment and contiguous old‐growth forest). We find that old‐growth forest had the highest species richness, driven by a high share of endemics. Species richness and community composition in forest‐derived vanilla agroforest were similar to forest fragment, whereas fallow‐derived vanilla agroforest was most comparable to woody fallow. The open land‐use types herbaceous fallow and rice paddy had fewest species. Across forest fragments, vanilla agroforests, and woody fallows, endemic bird species richness was positively correlated to landscape‐scale forest cover. We conclude that both fallow‐ and forest‐derived vanilla agroforests play an important but contrasting role for bird conservation: Fallow‐derived agroforests are less valuable but take fallow land out of the shifting cultivation cycle, possibly preventing further degradation. Conversely, forest‐derived agroforests contribute to forest degradation but may avoid total loss of tree cover from forest fragments. Considering the land‐use history of agroforests may thus be a promising avenue for future research beyond the case of vanilla. Abstract in Malagasay is available with online material     

Fragmentation of Continental United States Forests

We report a multiple-scale analysis of forest fragmentation based on 30-m (0.09 ha pixel⁻¹) land-cover maps for the conterminous United States. Each 0.09-ha unit of forest was classified according to fragmentation indexes measured within the surrounding landscape, for five landscape sizes including 2.25, 7.29, 65.61, 590.49, and 5314.41 ha. Most forest is found in fragmented landscapes. With 65.61-ha landscapes, for example, only 9.9% of all forest was contained in a fully forested landscape, and only 46.9% was in a landscape that was more than 90% forested. Overall, 43.5% of forest was located within 90 m of forest edge and 61.8% of forest was located within 150 m of forest edge. Nevertheless, where forest existed, it was usually dominant—at least 72.9% of all forest was in landscapes that were at least 60% forested for all landscape sizes. Small (less than 7.29 ha) perforations in otherwise continuous forest cover accounted for about half of the fragmentation. These results suggest that forests are connected over large regions, but fragmentation is so pervasive that edge effects potentially influence ecological processes on most forested lands. Received 22 October 2001; accepted 30 April 2002.     

Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.     

Landscape Dynamics in Northwestern Amazonia: An Assessment of Pastures,Fire and Illicit Crops as Drivers of Tropical Deforestation

Many studies have identified drivers of deforestation throughout the tropics and, in most cases, have recognised differences in the level of threat. However, only a few have also looked at the temporal and spatial dynamics by which those drivers act, which is critical for assessing the conservation of biodiversity as well as for landscape planning. In this study, we analyse land cover change between 2000 and 2009 in north-western Colombian Amazonia to identify the interactions between the use of fire, cultivation of illicit crops and establishment of pastures, and their impacts on the loss of forest in the region. Yearly analyses were undertaken at randomly selected sample areas to quantify the average areas of transition of land cover types under different landscape compositions: forest-dominated mosaics, pasture mosaics, fire mosaics, and illicit crop mosaics. Our results indicate that despite the fact that forest areas were well-preserved, deforestation occurred at a low annual rate (0.06%). Conversion to pasture was the main factor responsible for forest loss (the area of pastures tripled within forest mosaics over 8 years), and this process was independent of the landscape matrix in which the forests were located. In fire mosaics, burning is a common tool for forest clearing and conversion to pasture. Thus, forests in fire mosaics were highly disturbed and frequently transformed from primary to secondary forests. The use of fire for illicit cropping was not detected, partly due to the small size of common illicit crops. Forest regeneration from pastures and secondary vegetation was observed in areas with large amounts of natural forest. Overall, assuming the continuation of the observed pasture conversion trend and the use of forest fire, we suggest that our results should be incorporated into a spatially explicit and integrated decision support tool to target and focus land-planning activities and policies.     

Factors and Processes Shaping Land Cover and Land Cover Changes Along the Wisconsin River

Land use can exert a powerful influence on ecological systems, yet our understanding of the natural and social factors that influence land use and land-cover change is incomplete. We studied land-cover change in an area of about 8800 km² along the lower part of the Wisconsin River, a landscape largely dominated by agriculture. Our goals were (a) to quantify changes in land cover between 1938 and 1992, (b) to evaluate the influence of abiotic and socioeconomic variables on land cover in 1938 and 1992, and (c) to characterize the major processes of land-cover change between these two points in time. The results showed a general shift from agricultural land to forest. Cropland declined from covering 44% to 32% of the study area, while forests and grassland both increased (from 32% to 38% and from 10% to 14% respectively). Multiple linear regressions using three abiotic and two socioeconomic variables captured 6% to 36% of the variation in land-cover categories in 1938 and 9% to 46% of the variation in 1992. Including socioeconomic variables always increased model performance. Agricultural abandonment and a general decline in farming intensity were the most important processes of land-cover change among the processes considered. Areas characterized by the different processes of land-cover change differed in the abiotic and socioeconomic variables that had explanatory power and can be distinguished spatially. Understanding the dynamics of landscapes dominated by human impacts requires methods to incorporate socioeconomic variables and anthropogenic processes in the analyses. Our method of hypothesizing and testing major anthropogenic processes may be a useful tool for studying the dynamics of cultural landscapes. Received 7 December 2000; accepted 2 October 2001.     

京津冀城市群景观格局变化机制与预测

"城市群"是我国新型城镇化的主体形态,对推进国民经济发展具有重大意义,但其聚集连片的快速扩张模式对资源环境的压力持续增加,已经成为制约未来可持续的瓶颈。以我国经济发展最为活跃,但生态环境问题十分突出的京津冀城市群为例,基于CLUE-S模型,模拟分析了1990—2010年京津冀城市群景观格局的变化特征及其驱动机制,并预测了未来景观格局的变化趋势。结果表明,(1)1990—2010年京津冀城市群景观格局变化显著。其中,人工表面持续增加,耕地明显下降,林地和草地格局的变化也存在明显的时序差异;(2)京津冀城市群景观格局的变化主要受自然和社会经济要素的综合影响,且不同景观类型之间的驱动机制存在明显差异。其中,林地更易在地势较高、坡度较大的西部地区分布,而河流、人工表面等更易在平坦低洼的区域分布;此外,不同景观类型变化的驱动机制存在显著的时序差异,例如,人工表面受地形的影响程度逐步降低,呈现更加离散的分布,且其分布特征由较早时期的向市中心集聚分布发展为逐渐远离市中心并向铁路、高速路周边集聚的趋势;(3)经检验,CLUE-S模型能够较好地动态模拟京津冀城市群的土地覆盖格局的变化特征,模型的Kappa指数达0.84。模拟预测结果显示,未来(2020年)景观格局演变的显著特征是人工表面将持续增加,耕地将继续显著减少。北京、天津、唐山和石家庄等核心城市的景观格局变化将最为显著。     

The Cashew Frontier in Guinea-Bissau,West Africa: Changing Landscapes and Livelihoods

Guinea-Bissau farmers are replacing shifting cultivation with cashew (Anacardium occidentale) orchards in response to international and national economic and conservation policies, local social changes and perceived increasing climate instability. However, changes from relative food self-provisioning to full dependence on one cash crop and from a complex mosaic of agricultural fields, fallows and forest patches to a homogenous landscape of cashew agroforests impacts both the natural environment and livelihoods. This article on the demise of shifting cultivation in the tropics contributes to the growing body of scholarship on land use-cover change (LUCC) and its multiplex global, national and local drivers, varying across time and space. Further, we argue that instead of adopting an approach exclusively focused on parks, conservation-oriented external interventions should engage with farmers in the development of innovations that both preserve forest ecosystems and enhance food security.     

Altered leaf-litter decomposition rates in tropical forest fragments

The effects of forest fragmentation on leaf-litter decomposition rates were investigated for the first time in an experimentally fragmented tropical forest landscape in Central Amazonia. Leaf-litter decomposition rates were measured at seven distances (0–420 m) along forest edge-to-interior transects in two 100-ha fragments, two continuous forest edges, and at an identical series of distances along two deep continuous forest transects, as well as at the centers of two 1-ha and two 10-ha fragments. Decomposition rates increased significantly towards the edge of 100-ha forest fragments. Litter turnover times were 3–4 times faster within 50 m of the edge of 100-ha fragments than normally found in deep continuous forest. In contrast, there was no significant change in the rate of leaf-litter decomposition from the interior to the edge of continuous forest. It is difficult to account for these very different edge responses. Decomposition rates were not correlated with air temperature differentials, evaporative drying rates, litter depth, biomass or moisture content, or with total invertebrate densities, either within individual edge transects or across all sites. The difference in edge response may be due to chance, particularly the patchy removal of vast quantities of litter by litter-feeding termites, or may be a real, area-dependent phenomenon. Clearly, however, forest fragmentation increases the variability and unpredictability of litter decomposition rates near forest edges. In addition to edge effects, decomposition rates were strongly affected by decreasing fragment area. While sites at the centers of 10-ha and 100-ha forest fragments and continuous forest had equivalent decomposition rates, rates were markedly lower at the centers of 1-ha fragments. Litter turnover times were 2–3 times slower in 1-ha fragments than in continuous forest, and up to 13 times slower than at 100-ha edges. Litter structure and nutrient cycling dynamics are inevitably altered by forest fragmentation. Received: 16 October 1997 / Accepted: 14 April 1998     

Using quantitative pollen-based land-cover estimations and a spatial CA_Markov model to reconstruct the development of cultural landscape at Rõuge,South Estonia

Quantitative pollen-based land-cover reconstruction covering the last 4,000 years was performed using transformation coefficients derived from a modern pollen land-cover database and a palynological record from an annually laminated sequence in Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv. Proportions of four land-cover classes characteristic of cultural landscape were reconstructed: habitation area, arable land, grassland and woodland. A land-use change model using CA_Markov analysis was applied for spatial reconstructions for seven periods: 600 b.c., a.d. 300, 800, 1200, 1700, 1870 and 1940. Historical maps from a.d. 1684, 1870–1899 and 1935 were used for calibration of quantitative estimates and to validate spatial reconstructions. The accuracy of the estimates depends on the availability of modern analogues and differs among land-cover classes, being highest for classes with directly connectable pollen indicator types (arable land, forest) and lowest for settlement areas. Spatial reconstructions produced by the CA_Markov land-cover change model show moderate accordance with historical data. However, the large uncertainties in land-cover input data must be considered in the evaluation of the KIA results of the spatial model. Permanent low intensity, rural land-use in the Rõuge area started at the beginning of the Bronze Age (c. 1800 b.c.). The major increase in the extent of rural land-use took place at the beginning of the 13th century and culminated during the 19th century when c. 90% of the RSAP of Rõuge Tõugjärv was open. During the last century, rural land-use decreased constantly.     

Cork-oak woodlands as key-habitats for biodiversity conservation in Mediterranean landscapes: a case study using rove and ground beetles (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae, Carabidae)

Land-use intensification in Mediterranean agro-forest systems became a pressure on biodiversity, concerning particularly the woodland sensitive species. In 2001, the effects of a land-use gradient from old-growth cork-oak forest to a homogeneous agricultural area were assessed using rove beetles as indicators in a Mediterranean landscape. The aim was to find which species were negatively affected by land-use intensification at the landscape level and whether they benefited from cork-oak patches occurring along the land-use gradient. A total of 3,196 rove beetles from 88 taxa were sampled from all landscape types. Agricultural area recorded significantly higher numbers of abundance and species richness in relation to the cork-oak mosaics, i.e. the old-growth forest and the managed agro-forest landscapes (montados). Moreover, 70% of rove beetle indicator species common enough to be tested by IndVal displayed their highest indicator value for agriculture, showing a lower number of woodland indicators in comparison to ground beetles. Nevertheless, one rove beetle taxon was considered a specialist of closed woodland mosaics while no specialist ground beetle was found for that landscape typology. Some rare rove beetle species were also important in typifying diversity patterns of old-growth cork-oak forests. Hence, future management in Mediterranean landscapes should take into account not only indicator species common enough to be tested by IndVal, but also rare and endemic species. Considering the added value of cork-oak woodland cover for sensitive rove and ground beetle diversity, the strengthening of cork-oak woodland connectivity seems to be a crucial management that is required in agricultural Mediterranean landscapes.     

Changes in patch mosaics and vegetation structure of rural forested landscapes under shifting human impacts in South Korea

Landscape change in rural ecosystems is a major global issue because they are an important ecological and socio-cultural resource. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the driving forces behind landscape changes. Changes in the patterns and processes of landscape mosaics and vegetation community in two rural areas (Teokdong-ri, TD and Teokseong-ri, TS) in Korea were studied between 1988 and 2002. Quantitative data of vegetation community, landscape mosaics, and local statistics of the two study areas were analyzed. Agricultural efficiency increased even decreasing household population and the agricultural area. In both areas, as the human dependence on natural resources decreased, the patterns and processes of landscape mosaics and forest structure were changed due to changing human impacts on land use. Owing to the abandonment of forest management for 14 years, the spatial heterogeneity of TD significantly increased more than that of TS. In detrended correspondence analysis ordination, floristic compositions of forest patches of two areas were unevenly located on the ordination axes. Pinus densiflora communities of both areas in 1988 were separately located in 2002 as two directions according to management intensity. The species composition of P. densiflora in one direction of 1988 became similar to those of Quercus forests in 2002. This may be because species composition of P. densiflora has been influenced due to changed habitat environments. Finally, we concluded that the development of forest communities and vegetation succession predicted the spatial pattern of future landscape mosaics and due to the vegetation dynamics of rural ecosystems in Korea.Nomenclature: Miyawaki et al. (1994), Lee (1993), and Lee (1998) for identifying plant species.     

快速城市化地区景观生态安全时空演化过程分析——以东莞市为例

依托“压力-状态-响应”概念框架模型,建立景观生态安全评价指标体系,以东莞市为例,研究区域景观生态安全时空发展变化过程,揭示快速城市化地区生态安全发展变化的规律.结果表明:1988、1997和2005年东莞市的平均生态安全综合指数分别为0.497、0.436和0.395,区域总体生态安全从中高安全状态逐步降低到中低安全状态;生态中低安全的区域空间上从“市中心-镇中心”沿“市中心-镇中心-道路”不断扩张.采用以像元为中心的公里网格滑动模板的指标作为像元的评价指标,可以有效解决景观结构指数等指标的计算,在生态安全等级划分时边界过度很平滑,景观尺度的生态安全评价可以为生态可持续发展政策的制定提供科学依据.     

Contrasting effects of mosaic structure on alpha and beta diversity of bird assemblages in a human‐modified landscape

Habitat loss and fragmentation are key processes causing biodiversity loss in human‐modified landscapes. Knowledge of these processes has largely been derived from measuring biodiversity at the scale of ‘within‐habitat’ fragments with the surrounding landscape considered as matrix. Yet, the loss of variation in species assemblages ‘among’ habitat fragments (landscape‐scale) may be as important a driver of biodiversity loss as the loss of diversity ‘within’ habitat fragments (local‐scale). We tested the hypothesis that heterogeneity in vegetation cover is important for maintaining alpha and beta diversity in human‐modified landscapes. We surveyed bird assemblages in eighty 300‐m‐long transects nested within twenty 1‐km² vegetation ‘mosaics’, with mosaics assigned to four categories defined by the cover extent and configuration of native eucalypt forest and exotic pine plantation. We examined bird assemblages at two spatial scales: 1) within and among transects, and 2) within and among mosaics. Alpha diversity was the mean species diversity within‐transects or within‐mosaics and beta diversity quantified the effective number of compositionally distinct transects or mosaics. We found that within‐transect alpha diversity was highest in vegetation mosaics defined by continuous eucalypt forest, lowest in mosaics of continuous pine plantation, and at intermediate levels in mosaics containing eucalypt patches in a pine matrix. We found that eucalypt mosaics had lower beta diversity than other mosaic types when ignoring relative abundances, but had similar or higher beta diversity when weighting with species abundances. Mosaics containing both pine and eucalypt forest differed in their bird compositional variation among transects, despite sharing a similar suite of species. This configuration effect at the mosaic scale reflected differences in vegetation composition among transects. Maintaining heterogeneity in vegetation cover could help to maintain variation among bird assemblages across landscapes, thus partially offsetting local‐scale diversity losses due to fragmentation. Critical to this is the retention of remnant native vegetation.     

Dynamic steady state of patch-mosaic tree size structure of a mixed dipterocarp forest regulated by local crowding

A patch age- and tree size-structured simulator was applied to demonstrate the landscape dynamics of a lowland mixed dipterocarp forest, using census data over a 3 year interval from two 1 ha plots in northern West Kalimantan, Indonesia (Western Borneo). Tree growth rate and recruitment rate were estimated as functions of tree size and local crowding. The effect of local crowding was assumed to be one-sided through light competition, where the basal area for all trees larger than a target tree inside the circle of 10 m radius around the target was employed as the index of crowding. Estimated parameters were similar between the two plots. Tree mortality was expressed by descending function of tree size with asymptotic mortality for large trees corresponding to the gap formation rate. One parameter specifying the survival of trees at gap formation, which was required for the landscape-level simulation of a shifting-gap mosaic, was left undetermined from plot census data. Through simulation, this parameter was estimated so as to best fit the observed among-patch variation in terms of local basal area. The overall time course of simulation and tree size structure were not sensitive to this parameter, suggesting that one-sided competition along the vertical forest profile is a stronger determinant of average forest structure than among-patch horizontal heterogeneity in this forest. Simulated dynamic steady state successfully reproduced the observed forest architecture in the gap-dynamic landscape. It took about 400 years for a vacant landscape to be replaced by a steady-state architecture of forest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that steady-state basal area and biomass are most sensitive to changing gap formation rate and intrinsic size growth rate.     

Boreal mixedwood forests may have no "representative" areas: some implications for reserve design

We tested the shifting mosaic steady state theory in a ?73 600 km² landscape within the boreal mixedwood region of Alberta. Canada. The theory predicts that, at some spatial scale, mean vegetation attributes are temporally stable. It follows that contiguous sub-regions (stable mosaics) exist whose attributes are similar to regional values. The scale at which this stability occurs may be interpreted as the minimal size for an ecological reserve designed to represent the region. We argue that the appropriate attributes to test the theory in this case are the age and size structures of various forest stand populations. Using forest inventory data, we searched for stable mosaics (“representative areas”) at multiple spatial scales, using two different spatial decompositions of the study area. Areas were compared using 2-dimensional similarity metrics based on goodness-of-fit statistics. We found that the age and size structures of the entire study area could not be replicated at any smaller scale, which disconfirms the theory for the boreal mixedwood. Each of five compositionally distinct populations of forest stands have characteristic age and size structures, and patterns of spatial variability, which we relate to aspects of the regional ecology. Stand age and size structures have independent spatial variability. We observed multi-scaled heterogeneity in forest composition, which appears to arise partly from infrequent fire episodes when many large fires occur. These episodes are probably not uniform in their effect on forest structure. We evaluate two methods for constructing reserve systems in non-equilibrium landscapes, using small collections of disconnected subunits. Small areas can readily be built that more closely match landscape properties than any contiguous area of reasonable size. The degree of representativeness and total size of the constructed areas is sensitive to the size of the constituent pieces; in the mixedwood, there is a natural scale of 1,500 km² which is near-optimal. Reserves constructed in this way are unlikely to be temporally stable. We therefore propose a dynamic strategy for maintaining reserve systems over time within a managed landscape. Under this “floating reserve” strategy, portions of the system would be periodically replaced in response to the aging of components, unexpected large scale disturbance, or refinements in conservation objectives.     

社区水平森林景观格局动态特征与驱动因素

基于高分辨率SPOT-5影像、TM影像和农户调查数据,以及相关辅助数据,选取三峡库区典型森林大县石柱县三星乡石星村为样区,利用景观格局指数与Logistic回归分析法,对1994—2014年间的森林景观格局的动态特征及其影响因素进行分析,旨在丰富人们对社区水平森林景观格局动态的理解和认识,为森林景观恢复和可持续经营策略的制定提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)样区森林景观一直占据20年间景观基质的主导地位,空间分布上退化原始林主要集中分布在中东部低山、深丘区,次生林、退化林地和人工林呈镶嵌格局,分散于主要基质性景观中;(2)20年间样区森林景观整体呈先减少后增加的"U"型格局,表现为1994—2004年间的退化与2004—2014年间的恢复两个截然相反的过程,且这一过程主要发生在森林景观与水田、旱地、居民点、道路等接壤区;(3)2004—2014年间森林景观的演化趋势与1994—2004年间整体上呈反向趋势,空间格局上,这一阶段森林景观的恢复主要出现在1994—2004年间森林景观所发生退化的区域;(4)20年间样区森林景观在斑块水平上呈明显异质性分布,3个截面年份不同森林景观破碎化程度的总排序均为退化林地人工林次生林退化原始林,且退化原始林、次生林和退化林地的破碎度变化趋势相同,均为先增后减;(5)20年间样区森林景观在景观水平上的破碎度呈现先增强后减弱趋势,且2014年的破碎化程度恢复至低于1994年的水平,进一步说明在退化后的森林景观恢复过程中,生态完整性的恢复速度远低于破碎速度;(6)社会经济因素对20年间样区森林景观变化的影响最突出,其中,最主要的影响因素是人口密度变化,先增后减的变化使生态压力随之增减,进而导致森林景观的退化与恢复。其次是农民人均纯收入变化,特别是2004—2014年农民人均纯收入的增加,促进能源结构的转型,减少了对森林景观的依赖和干扰。空间距离对森林景观的影响具有稳定的持续作用,居民对森林景观的干扰多经由距离因素而实现。自然因素控制大地貌格局,中短时期内对森林景观变化影响不大,次生林和退化林地因处于适宜开发的边缘地带,受自然环境影响较大。     

A size-distribution-based model of forest dynamics along a latitudinal environmental gradient

A geographically extended model of the dynamics of tree size structure of forests is proposed to simulate the change of forest zonation along latitude in response to global environmental change. To predict the response of forests to global change, it is necessary to construct functional models of forest tree populations. The size-structure-based model requires far less memory and steps of calculation compared with individual-based models, and it is easy to incorporate the dimension of geographic locations into the model to describe large-scale dynamics of forest-type distributions. The effect of increasing size growth rate, expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, was diminished at the stand-level basal area density, because of regulation by one-sided competition. Model simulations of a century-long global warming at around 3 °C predicted that (1) biomass changed in resident forests rather simultaneously in response to warming, and that (2) there was a considerable time lag in movement at the boundaries of different forest types, particularly under the existence of resident forest types that would be finally replaced. It required several thousand years after a century-long warming spell for forest types to attain new steady-state distributions after shifting. As a consequence, global warming created a zigzag pattern of biomass distribution along a latitudinal gradient, i.e., an increase in the cooler-side boundary of forest types and a decrease in the warmer-side boundary.     

Mechanisms maintaining biodiversity in Mediterranean pine-oak forests: insights from a spatial simulation model

Recurrent anthropogenic and natural perturbations, resource limitations and heterogeneous environments contribute to the maintenance of a remarkable biodiversity in Mediterranean plant communities. Yet, the essential mechanisms of community assembly in these systems remain largely unexplored. In the current paper we investigate the coexistence of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) and Holm oak (Quercus ilex L.), two of the most widely distributed species in the Iberian Peninsula, in relation to gradients in water availability and disturbance. A spatial model of landscape forest dynamics was implemented, calibrated with experimental data, with stands arranged on a heterogeneous lattice and coupled by dispersal. It was found that pine population persistence in the landscape can be explained independently by a competition-colonization tradeoff (in mesic homogeneous environments) and by a tradeoff between shade and drought tolerance (in heterogeneous low disturbed environments). Both mechanisms reinforce mutually to maintain a shifting mosaic of both taxa along disturbance and aridity gradients. This view is consistent with palynological, historical and forest inventory records. In turn, equilibrium theories of vegetation dynamics (phytosociological), that neglect the role of heterogeneity and disturbances may be inadequate for Mediterranean forests, and have been shown to result in mismanagement practices. We claim that biologically informed models of forest dynamics are desperately needed as diagnosis tools for sustainable forest management.     

CLUE-S模型在长白山自然保护区外围规划中的应用

受自然保护区旅游业快速发展影响,长白山自然保护区外围土地利用变化加剧。因此,对区域土地利用布局进行科学规划具有十分重要的意义。以长白山自然保护区外围30 km区域为研究对象,探讨了CLUE-S模型在小尺度土地利用规划中的应用。在分析研究区1991—2007年土地利用变化的驱动力基础上,根据区域规划预案,模拟2020土地利用布局。利用模拟结果划定空间管制区和乡镇布局,并与现有规划进行了对比。结果表明,基于CLUE-S模型的土地规划明显抑制了区域景观破碎化进程,减弱了人为活动对景观的影响,该方法可以为长白山区域土地利用规划提供有力的技术手段和科学支撑。