Large population sizes mitigate negative effects of variable weather conditions on fruit set in two spring woodland orchids

Global circulation models predict increased climatic variability, which could increase variability in demographic rates and affect long-term population viability. In animal-pollinated species, pollination services, and thus fruit and seed set, may be highly variable among years and sites, and depend on both local environmental conditions and climatic variables. Orchid species may be particularly vulnerable to disruption of their pollination services, as most species depend on pollinators for successful fruit set and because seed germination and seedling recruitment are to some extent dependent on the amount of fruits and seeds produced. Better insights into the factors determining fruit and seed set are therefore indispensable for a better understanding of population dynamics and viability of orchid populations under changing climatic conditions. However, very few studies have investigated spatio-temporal variation in fruit set in orchids. Here, we quantified fruit production in eight populations of the orchid Orchis purpurea that does not reward pollinators and 13 populations of the rewarding Neottia (Listera) ovata during five consecutive years (2002–2006). Fruit production in large populations showed much higher stability than that in small populations and was less affected by extreme weather conditions. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of small orchid populations to an increasingly variable climate through highly unpredictable fruit-set patterns.     

Cyclicity and variability in prey dynamics strengthens predator numerical response: the effects of vole fluctuations on white stork productivity

Theory predicts that optimality of life-long investment in reproduction is, among other factors, driven by the variability and predictability of the resources. Similarly, during the breeding season, single resource pulses characterized by short periods and high amplitudes enable strong numerical responses in their consumers. However, it is less well established how spatio-temporal dynamics in resource supplies influence the spatio-temporal variation of consumer reproduction. We used the common vole (Microtus arvalis)—white stork (Ciconia ciconia) resource—consumer model system to test the effect of increased temporal variation and periodicity of vole population dynamics on the strength of the local numerical response of storks. We estimated variability, cycle amplitude, and periodicity (by means of direct and delayed density dependence) in 13 Czech and Polish vole populations. Cross-correlation between annual stork productivity and vole abundance, characterizing the strength of the local numerical response of storks, increased when the vole population fluctuated more and population cycles were shorter. We further show that the onset of incubation of storks was delayed during the years of higher vole abundance. We demonstrate that high reproductive flexibility of a generalist consumer in tracking the temporal dynamics of its resource is driven by the properties of the local resource dynamics and we discuss possible mechanisms behind these patterns.     

Structure and dynamics of the inland populations of Salicornia patula

The paper presents the results of a long-term investigation on the population structure and dynamics of Salicornia patula Duval-Jouve. The studies concern the phenotypic variability, density, distribution in space, dry matter production and seed production in relation to some habitat conditions. The studies elucidate some mechanisms controlling the plasticity of plants and confirm a number of rules reported in the ecological literature on the development of the structure and dynamics of populations of pioneer annual species.     

Breeding habitat expansion in the Grey heron (Ardea cinerea)

Predicting the response of natural populations to habitat loss and the ecological consequences to communities is one of the great challenges of ecology. Here, we report long-term (30 years) results from an ecological survey illustrating a change of breeding habits in the Grey heron, Ardea cinerea. Comparative data on brood size show that Grey herons adopting a new breeding behaviour produce more nestlings than other individuals in the modified area. Interestingly, this recent behavioural change may result in indirect effects on the community structure by negatively affecting the breeding population of the Purple heron Ardea purpurea.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

What drives the dynamics of a soil mite population under seasonal flooding? A null model analysis

Floods can inflict high mortality on terrestrial organisms, but may also promote adaptive evolution. In seasonal floodplains, several taxa show flood-related traits that may be important for their long-term persistence, but the available evidence is conflicting. Here, we used a simulation approach to investigate the interplay between seasonal floods and submersion resistance in driving the population dynamics of the parthenogenetic soil mite Rostrozetes ovulum in an Amazonian blackwater floodplain. First, we gathered data from two flood cycles to estimate field survival rate. Next, we used further data from a submersion survival laboratory experiment and a historical flood record to build a null model for R. ovulum’s survival rate under seasonal flooding, and then tested it against field survival estimates. Floods caused marked density declines, but the two estimates of field survival rate were statistically equivalent, suggesting relatively constant survival across years. Submersion survival time varied tenfold among individuals, but its variability was within the range known for life history traits of other asexual invertebrates. Both field survival rates were consistent with the null model, supporting seasonal flooding as the main mortality factor. Surprisingly, though, average flood duration was actually larger than the average mite could survive, suggesting that population persistence relies on relatively rare, super-resistant phenotypes. Overall, the studied R. ovulum population appears to have a mainly density-independent dynamics across years, with its viability depending on mechanisms that buffer flood survival rate against temporal oscillations.     

Does an ecological advantage produce the asymmetric lineage ratio in a harvester ant population?

In dependent-lineage harvester ant populations, two lineages interbreed but are genetically distinct. The offspring of a male and queen of the same lineage are female reproductives; the offspring of a male and queen of different lineages are workers. Geographic surveys have shown asymmetries in the ratio of the two lineages in many harvester ant populations, which may be maintained by an ecological advantage to one of the lineages. Using census data from a long-term study of a dependent-lineage population of the red harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus, we identified the lineage of 130 colonies sampled in 1997–1999, ranging in age from 1 to 19 years when collected, and 268 colonies sampled in 2010, ranging in age from 1 to 28 years when collected. The ratio of lineages in the study population is similar across an 11-year interval, 0.59 J2 in 1999 and 0.66 J2 in 2010. The rare lineage, J1, had a slightly but significantly higher number of mates of the opposite lineage than the common lineage, J2, and, using data from previous work on reproductive output, higher male production. Mature colonies of the two lineages did not differ in nest mound size, foraging activity, or the propensity to relocate their nests. There were no strong differences in the relative recruitment or survivorship of the two lineages. Our results show no ecological advantage for either lineage, indicating that differences between the lineages in sex ratio allocation may be sufficient to maintain the current asymmetry of the lineage ratio in this population.     

Effects of Landscape-Scale Environmental Variation on Greater Sage-Grouse Chick Survival

Effective long-term wildlife conservation planning for a species must be guided by information about population vital rates at multiple scales. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations declined substantially during the twentieth century, largely as a result of habitat loss and fragmentation. In addition to the importance of conserving large tracts of suitable habitat, successful conservation of this species will require detailed information about factors affecting vital rates at both the population and range-wide scales. Research has shown that sage-grouse population growth rates are particularly sensitive to hen and chick survival rates. While considerable information on hen survival exists, there is limited information about chick survival at the population level, and currently there are no published reports of factors affecting chick survival across large spatial and temporal scales. We analyzed greater sage-grouse chick survival rates from 2 geographically distinct populations across 9 years. The effects of 3 groups of related landscape-scale covariates (climate, drought, and phenology of vegetation greenness) were evaluated. Models with phenological change in greenness (NDVI) performed poorly, possibly due to highly variable production of forbs and grasses being masked by sagebrush canopy. The top drought model resulted in substantial improvement in model fit relative to the base model and indicated that chick survival was negatively associated with winter drought. Our overall top model included effects of chick age, hen age, minimum temperature in May, and precipitation in July. Our results provide important insights into the possible effects of climate variability on sage-grouse chick survival.     

Differential effects of abandonment on the demography of the grassland perennial Succisa pratensis

Abandonment of traditional land-use practices can have strong effects on the abundance of species occurring in agricultural landscapes. However, the precise mechanisms by which individual performance and population dynamics are affected are still poorly understood. To assess how abandonment affects population dynamics of Succisa pratensis we used data from a 4-year field study in both abandoned and traditionally grazed areas in moist and mesic habitats to parameterize integral projection models. Abandoned populations had a lower long-term stochastic population growth rate (λ _S = 0.90) than traditionally managed populations (λ _S = 1.08), while λ _S did not differ between habitat types. The effect of abandonment differed significantly between years and had opposed effects on different vital rates. Individuals in abandoned populations experienced higher mortality rates and lower seedling establishment, but had higher growth rates and produced more flower heads per plant. Population viability analyses, based on a population survey of the whole study area in combination with our demographic models, showed that 32 % of the populations face a high risk of extinction (>80 %) within 20 years. These results suggest that immediate changes in management are needed to avoid extinctions and further declines in population sizes. Stochastic elasticity analyses and stochastic life table response experiments indicated that management strategies would be most effective if they increase survival of small plants as well as seedling establishment, while maintaining a high seed production. This may be achieved by varying the grazing intensity between years or excluding grazers when plants are flowering.     

Intrinsically generated coloured noise in laboratory insect populations

What are the mechanisms responsible for generating the erratic fluctuations observed in natural populations? This question has been at the centre of a long debate in contemporary ecology. The irregularities in the patterns of population abundance were initially mostly attributed to environmental factors. In the mid-1970s, however, it was proposed that these fluctuations may be generated intrinsically, by the underlying nonlinearities inherent in population processes. More recently, the focus of this argument has turned increasingly towards the statistical properties of population fluctuations, with many studies showing that ecological systems tend to be dominated by low-frequency or long-term dynamics, termed ''red'' noise. Currently, the source of the ''redness'' in ecological time-series is hotly debated, with the general consensus being that environmental variables are the major driving force. Here we show that three classic laboratory populations known to display irregular fluctuations also have reddened spectra. Furthermore, the dynamics of these populations show very well-defined generic scaling properties in the form of power laws. These results imply that long-term influences in ecological systems can be the product of intrinsic dynamics.     

Covariation between mean vole density and variability drives the numerical response of storks to vole prey

Hušek et al. (Popul Ecol 55:363–375, 2013 ) showed that the numerical response of storks to vole prey was stronger in regions where variability in vole density was higher. This finding is, at first sight, in contradiction with the predictions of life-history theory in stochastic environments. Since the stork productivity-vole density relationship is concave, theory predicts a negative association between the temporal variability in vole density and stork productivity. Here, we illustrate this negative effect of vole variability on stork productivity with a simple mathematical model relating expected stork productivity to vole dynamics. When comparing model simulations to the observed mean density and variability of thirteen Czech and Polish vole populations, we find that the observed positive effect of vole variability on stork numerical response is most likely due to an unusual positive correlation between mean and variability of vole density.     

Stress tolerance and population stability of rock pool Daphnia in relation to local conditions and population isolation

Small fragmented populations can lose genetic variability, which reduces population viability through inbreeding and loss of adaptability. Current and previous environmental conditions can also alter the viability of populations, by creating local adaptations that determine responses to stress. Yet, most studies on stress tolerance usually consider either the effect of genetic diversity or the local environment, missing a more holistic perspective of the factors contributing to stress tolerance among natural populations. Here, we studied how salinity stress affects population growth of Daphnia longispina, Daphnia magna, and Daphnia pulex from rock pools with varying degrees of population isolation and salinity conditions. Standing variation of in situ rock pool salinity conditions explained more variation in salt tolerance than the standing variation of population isolation or genetic diversity, in both a pulse and a press disturbance experiment. This indicates that the level of stress, which these natural populations experience, influences their response to that stress, which may have important consequences for the conservation of fragmented populations. However, long-term population stability in the field decreased with population isolation, indicating that natural populations experience a variety of stresses; thus, population isolation and genetic diversity may stabilize population dynamics over larger spatiotemporal scales.     

Population dynamics of invading freshwater fish: common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

There is much interest in managing invasive freshwater fish, but little is known about the dynamics of these populations following establishment. We used annual commercial catch-per-unit-effort data at multiple spatio-temporal scales to test hypotheses about the population dynamics of invading common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We hypothesised that following establishment of the Boolara strain of this species in the Murray-Darling Basin in 1961/1962: (1) carp would undergo exponential or logistic-type population growth; and (2) carp population growth rates would be highest following over-bank flood events that provided extensive off-channel spawning and feeding habitats. The logistic (w _i  = 0.73) and delayed-logistic (w _i  = 0.27) models best explained the population dynamics of common carp in the Murray-Darling Basin during 1962/1963–2001/2002; there was negligible support for exponential growth (w _i  ≤ 0.01). Although we cannot exclude the possibility that floods may have been important in the early years of the invasion we found little evidence that carp population growth rates increased following flood events. Our logistic-type model-based estimates of the maximum annual population growth rate (r _m; 0.378 and 0.384) indicate that >0.315 or 0.319 of the adult population would need to be removed annually to achieve eradication. We conclude that the rapid spread of the Boolara strain of common carp through the Murray-Darling Basin was facilitated by high initial population growth rates. More generally, we suggest that the lag period between an invader establishing and increasing to high abundances will be characterised by logistic-type population growth. We encourage others to investigate the long-term population dynamics of invading freshwater fish using time series and models such as those reported here.     

Reproducibility of Vibrionaceae population structure in coastal bacterioplankton

How reproducibly microbial populations assemble in the wild remains poorly understood. Here, we assess evidence for ecological specialization and predictability of fine-scale population structure and habitat association in coastal ocean Vibrionaceae across years. We compare Vibrionaceae lifestyles in the bacterioplankton (combinations of free-living, particle, or zooplankton associations) measured using the same sampling scheme in 2006 and 2009 to assess whether the same groups show the same environmental association year after year. This reveals complex dynamics with populations falling primarily into two categories: (i) nearly equally represented in each of the two samplings and (ii) highly skewed, often to an extent that they appear exclusive to one or the other sampling times. Importantly, populations recovered at the same abundance in both samplings occupied highly similar habitats suggesting predictable and robust environmental association while skewed abundances of some populations may be triggered by shifts in ecological conditions. The latter is supported by difference in the composition of large eukaryotic plankton between years, with samples in 2006 being dominated by copepods, and those in 2009 by diatoms. Overall, the comparison supports highly predictable population-habitat linkage but highlights the fact that complex, and often unmeasured, environmental dynamics in habitat occurrence may have strong effects on population dynamics.     

Population decline but increased distribution of an invasive ant genotype on a Pacific atoll

Populations of invasive species are often studied when their effects are perceived as a problem. Yet observing the dynamics of populations over longer time periods can highlight changes in effects on invaded communities, and assist with management decisions. In this study we revisit an invasion of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) in the Tokelau archipelago to determine if the distribution and abundance of the ant has changed ~7 years after surveys completed in 2004. We were particularly interested in whether populations of a previously identified invasive haplotype (D) had increased in distribution and abundance, as this haplotype was implicated in negative effects on resident ant communities. Indeed, haplotype D populations have become more widespread since the initial survey, more likely owing to new introductions or movement by humans, rather than intrinsic characteristics of the haplotype. We also found that despite no significant change in the abundance of A. gracilipes overall, haplotype D populations have declined in abundance. Residents of the Tokelau atolls no longer consider the ant to be a pest as they did 7 years ago, when populations of this ant interfered with their food production and many other aspects of daily life. We observed no significant differences between A. gracilipes invaded and uninvaded communities, which suggests that the ant is at a level of abundance below which significant negative ecological effects may occur. Population declines of invasive species are not infrequent, and understanding these population dynamics, particularly the underlying mechanisms promoting population declines or stabilisation, should be a high priority for invasion ecology.     

Long-term population dynamics of Littorina obtusata: the spatial structure and impact of trematodes

There are few examples of host population regulation by macroparasites in stable communities; however, strong impact of parasites on the host individual is obvious in many cases (for example increased mortality, a reduction in fecundity up to the complete castration). Associations between the host populations (periwinkle Littorina obtusata) and prevalence of trematodes was investigated using long-term data (1982–1997) of two L. obtusata populations in the White Sea, northwest Russia. We hypothesized that high prevalence of trematodes will reduce future host population density, and increase mortality. Using a general linear model, we found a significant negative correlation between host population density and the prevalence of the most abundant parasite, Microphallus piriformes in the previous year. We found no correlation between snail reproduction and the prevalence, but observed a significant reduction in middle-aged mollusk abundance which was associated with high prevalence. This indicates the importance of parasite-induced mortality for the dynamics of the host population. There was an association between trematode infection and L. obtusata populations that influence their distribution within littoral zone. The ‘source’ population, located in the lower section of the macrophyte zone, appears to be self-sustaining, controlling the whole population recruitment and dynamics.     

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population,Swaziland

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here.     

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics.     

Morphometric variations at an ecological scale: Seasonal and local variations in feral and commensal house mice

The time scales of evolutionary and ecological studies tend to converge, as shown by evidences that contemporary evolution can occur as fast as ecological processes. This opens new questions regarding variation of characters usually considered to change mostly along an evolutionary time scale, such as morphometric traits, including osteological and dental features such as mandibles and teeth of mammals. Using two-dimensional geometric morphometric approach, we questioned whether such features can change on a seasonal and local basis, in relation to the ecological dynamics of the populations. Our model comprised populations of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) in two contrasted situations in mainland Western Europe: a feral population vs. two close commensal populations. Mitochondrial DNA (D-loop) provided insight into the diversity and dynamics of the populations.The feral population appeared as genetically highly diversified, suggesting a possible functioning as a sink in relation to the surrounding commensal populations. In contrast, commensal populations were highly homogeneous from a genetic point of view, suggesting each population to be isolated. This triggered morphological differentiation between neighboring farms. Seasonal differences in morphometric traits (mandible size and shape and molar size and shape) were significant in both settings, although seasonal variations were greater in the feral than in the commensal population. Seasonal variations in molar size and shape could be attributed to differential wear in young or overwintered populations. Differences in mandible shape could be related to aging in overwintered animals, but also possibly to differing growth conditions depending on the season. The impact of these ecological processes on morphometric traits is moderate compared to divergence over a large biogeographic scale, but their significance nevertheless underlines that even morphological characters may trace populations dynamics at small scale in time and space.     

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

Abstract The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.