Calculating the influence of alternative allocation scenarios in fossil fuel chains

Goal, Scope and Background

As part of an LCA study comparing an average Dutch passenger car running on petrol with a similar car running on bio-ethanol and comparing an average Dutch passenger car running on diesel with a similar car running on biodiesel, the question raised to get more insight into the allocations made in fossil fuel chains in existing data bases such as ecoinvent. Both biofuel and fossil fuel chains contain various allocation situations that have been approached differently by various authors leading to differing and incomparable results. For biofuel chains, stakeholders had obtained insight into the allocations in earlier studies, but for the allocations made for the fossil chains, this was not the case. Therefore, one part of the study, which is reported in this paper, focused on a quick scan of different allocation scenarios for fossil fuels chains using the Swiss ecoinvent v1.1 database.

Methods

The quick scan focused on three different allocation scenarios for fossil fuel chains: economic allocation, physical allocation and the ecoinvent default allocation. There appeared to be 54 multi-output (MO) processes linked to both the passenger car and the diesel system in the ecoinvent v1.1 database. Based on contribution analyses identifying which multi-output processes contribute most to one of the environmental impact categories of the characterisation, seven multi-output processes were selected that have been further analysed with the three allocation scenarios mentioned.

Results

The results show that although at the process level allocation factors may differ significantly (up to almost 250), the total results only differ modestly (1–1.5), at least for the present case.

Discussion

There is no general rule between these two. They depend on the scaling factor and the environmental impact related to the resource extractions and emissions of a particular multi-output process and its upstream processes in the total system analysed.

Conclusions

The results of this quick scan are mainly intended for illustrating and learning purposes focusing on the possible influence of different allocation scenarios for fossil fuel chains. Bearing these limitations in mind, it can be concluded that different allocation methods can generate large differences in allocation factors and thus also at the level of environmental impacts allocated to the derived single-output processes. Nevertheless, the aggregated results for the present case only differ modestly.     

Biofuels and other approaches for decreasing fossil fuel emissions from agriculture

Biofuels offer one method for decreasing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels, thus helping to meet UK and EU targets for mitigating climate change. They also provide a rational option for land use within the EU that could be economically viable, provided that an appropriate financial and policy environment is developed. If 80% of current set‐aside land in the UK were used for production of biomass crops for electricity generation, about 3% of current UK electricity demand could be met from this source. Considering possibilities for increasing yields and land area devoted to such crops over the coming decades, this could possibly rise to 12%. These estimates exclude consideration of developments in electricity generation which should increase the efficiency of conversion. Also, the use of combined heat and power units at local level (e.g. on farms or in rural communities) gives additional energy saving. Dedicated biomass crops such as willow, poplar, miscanthus, switchgrass or reed canary grass are perennials: in comparison with annual arable crops they would be expected to deliver additional environmental benefits. The elimination of annual cultivation should give a more stable environment, beneficial for farmland biodiversity. Some increase in soil organic matter content is likely, leading to some sequestration of carbon in soil and long‐term improvements in soil quality. The impact on water quality may be positive as nitrate losses are small and a similar trend is expected for phosphate and pesticides. However, these crops may well use more water than arable crops so their impact on water resources could be negative – an issue for further research. Agricultural land can also be used to produce liquid fuels for use in transport. At present biodiesel can be produced from oilseed rape and ethanol from either sucrose in sugar beet or cellulose from virtually any plant material. In the short‐term, liquid biofuels are an easy option as they require little change to either agriculture or transport infrastructure. However, their benefits for CO2 emissions are much less than for biomass used for generating electricity. It is therefore necessary to debate the priorities for land use in this context.     

The European carbon balance. Part 1: fossil fuel emissions

We analyzed the magnitude, the trends and the uncertainties of fossil‐fuel CO₂ emissions in the European Union 25 member states (hereafter EU‐25), based on emission inventories from energy‐use statistics. The stability of emissions during the past decade at EU‐25 scale masks decreasing trends in some regions, offset by increasing trends elsewhere. In the recent 4 years, the new Eastern EU‐25 member states have experienced an increase in emissions, reversing after a decade‐long decreasing trend. Mediterranean and Nordic countries have also experienced a strong acceleration in emissions. In Germany, France and United Kingdom, the stability of emissions is due to the decrease in the industry sector, offset by an increase in the transportation sector. When four different inventories models are compared, we show that the between‐models uncertainty is as large as 19% of the mean for EU‐25, and even bigger for individual countries. Accurate accounting for fossil CO₂ emissions depends on a clear understanding of system boundaries, i.e. emitting activities included in the accounting. We found that the largest source of errors between inventories is the use of distinct systems boundaries (e.g. counting or not bunker fuels, cement manufacturing, nonenergy products). Once these inconsistencies are corrected, the between‐models uncertainty can be reduced down to 7% at EU‐25 scale. The uncertainty of emissions at smaller spatial scales than the country scale was analyzed by comparing two emission maps based upon distinct economic and demographic activities. A number of spatial and temporal biases have been found among the two maps, indicating a significant increase in uncertainties when increasing the resolution at scales finer than ≈200 km. At 100 km resolution, for example, the uncertainty of regional emissions is estimated to be 60 g C m^?2 yr^?1, up to 50% of the mean. The uncertainty on regional fossil‐fuel CO₂ fluxes to the atmosphere could be reduced by making accurate ¹⁴C measurements in atmospheric CO₂, and by combining them with transport models.     

An integrated approach to Phoma systematics

Physiological and morphological characters were recorded from 55 strains of 17 Phoma taxa and one Pyrenochaeta. The results were subjected to numerical analysis and UPGMA dendrograms produced. The full results were compared with TLC profiles of secondary metabolites. Seven distinct clusters were recovered from dendrograms based on full and partial character sets and the grouping of strains within each cluster discussed. The new combination Phoma sambuci-nigrae (Sacc.) Monte, Bridge & Sutton is proposed for P. herbarum f. sambuci-nigrae Sacc.     

Miscanthus biomass production for energy in Europe and its potential contribution to decreasing fossil fuel carbon emissions

Field trials throughout Europe over the past 15 years have confirmed the potential for high biomass production from Miscanthus, a giant perennial rhizomatous grass with C₄ photosynthesis. However, policies to promote the utilization of biomass crops require yield estimates that can be scaled up to regional, national and continental areas. The only way in which this information can be reliably provided is through the use of productivity models. Here, we describe MISCANMOD, a productivity model, which was used in conjunction with a GIS to plot potential, non‐water‐limited yields across Europe. Modelled rainfed yields were also calculated using a water balance approach based on FAO estimates of plant available water in the soil. The observed yields were consistent with modelled yields at 20 trial sites across Europe. We estimate that if Miscanthus was grown on 10% of suitable land area in the European Union (EU15), 231 TWh yr^?1 of electricity could be generated, which is 9% of the gross electricity production in 2000. Using the same scenario, the total carbon mitigation could be 76 Mt C yr^?1, which is about 9% of the EU total C emissions for the 1990 Kyoto Protocol baseline levels.     

An integrated approach to hydropower impact assessment

The submerged aquatic vegetation of 17 Norwegian lakes is described and related to the environmental impacts that result from hydro-electric power (HEP) use of these lakes. Largely based upon physiognomical features, three main community types are discerned. These are denoted as (a) shallow-water, (b) mid-depth, and (c) deep-water community, respectively. The aquatic macrophytes are classified into a plant strategy framework. This classification suggests that these macrophytes frequently exhibit combined traits of the S (stress-tolerating), R (ruderal), and C (competitive) strategies. A plant-strategy index for the lakes is derived from the species classification and related to their HEP use.Broadly, the response features of hydrolake vegetation are: (1) a decline in species richness; (2) the gradual disappearance of the shallow-water and mid-depth communities; (3) a conspicuous absence of vascular submerged macrophytes in storage hydrolakes when lake levels change more than 7 m annually, and; (4) an increased incidence of species possessing plant strategies of the ruderal (R) type. The implications of these results for an environmental impact assessment of hydropower schemes are discussed.     

An organism-centered approach to some community and ecosystem concepts

We present a discussion of the ecological concept of the niche based on the perspective of the individual organism, rather than that of a population or species. This discussion is then expanded to include other related ecological concepts such as guild, environment, habitat and functional group.Using the individual as the focus permits the development of a system of concepts which, we believe, approximate the way that ecological interactions occur in nature.     

An integrated approach to managing Rhizoctonia solani on maize in marginal soils: field studies

Abstract

A study was conducted over two seasons in a marginal soil with an acid saturation of 54%. A plant growth promoting rhizobacterium, Bacillus megaterium, a commercial biocontrol agent, Trichoderma harzianum Strain kd (Eco-T^®), and soluble potassium silicate were used in this study. The objective was to control maize yield reduction caused by Rhizoctonia solani AG2 root rot isolated from infected maize. R. solani reduced maize yields significantly by 34% in the first season. However, the losses decreased in the second season from 34% to 10%. In the first season, combination of T. harzianum, B. megaterium and potassium silicate increased maize yields by 130%. The highest yield in the presence of R. solani was treatments with T. harzianum (216%) followed by T. harzianum plus potassium silicate (214%) and lastly T. harzianum plus B. megaterium (178%). However, in the second season, T. harzianum plus potassium silicate treatment resulted in the highest yields.     

An integrated approach to uncover drivers of cancer

Systematic characterization of cancer genomes has revealed a staggering number of diverse aberrations that differ among individuals, such that the functional importance and physiological impact of most tumor genetic alterations remain poorly defined. We developed a computational framework that integrates chromosomal copy number and gene expression data for detecting aberrations that promote cancer progression. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using a melanoma data set. Our analysis correctly identified known drivers of melanoma and predicted multiple tumor dependencies. Two dependencies, TBC1D16 and RAB27A, confirmed empirically, suggest that abnormal regulation of protein trafficking contributes to proliferation in melanoma. Together, these results demonstrate the ability of integrative Bayesian approaches to identify candidate drivers with biological, and possibly therapeutic, importance in cancer.     

一种城市生态系统现状评价方法及其应用

生态城市建设是未来城市发展的最终趋势。从结构、功能、活动、发展演化规律等方面来看,城市生态系统都可以被看作一个动态变化的系统。将可持续发展理论引入到城市生态系统现状评价中,提出和解释了城市生态系统可持续发展概念;从可持续发展的角度,评价城市生态系统的现状,建立城市生态系统可持续发展评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用集对分析方法,将评价城市生态系统可持续发展水平的多个指标系统合成一个与最优评价集的相对贴近度,用来描述城市生态系统可持续发展水平,并将该方法应用于兰州市城市生态系统现状评价。结果表明,在2004—2010年间,兰州市城市生态系统可持续发展水平呈现折线型关系,而且有明显的陡降现象。具体变化趋势是从2004年的0.5081平缓上升到2005年的0.5581、然后陡降到2006年的0.4073、接着平缓上升直到2009年的0.5010、最后平缓下降到2010年的0.4706。尽管不同时期城市生态系统可持续发展水平有所变化,但是总体来说,一直处在基本可持续发展的水平,协调程度一般;该评价方法能够很好的反映城市生态系统的发展现状,为建设生态城市提供科学依据。     

闽三角城市群生态系统服务权衡的时空动态与情景模拟

闽三角城市群由厦门、泉州和漳州3个城市组成,是我国沿海开放地区之一。21世纪以来,快速的城镇化过程严重影响了该区域的生态安全以及生态系统服务功能,制约了当地的经济社会可持续发展。因此,研究闽三角城市群的生态系统服务权衡协同关系,对该区域的生态安全协同联动管理以及社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。估算了闽三角城市群的保水服务、保土服务、NPP和食物供给4种生态系统服务功能,使用空间分析和空间统计等方法分析其时空动态变化和相互之间的权衡协同关系,并在不同情景下模拟了2030年的生态系统服务空间分布和权衡关系。结果表明:2005—2015年来,闽三角城市群的保水服务、保土服务、NPP和食物供给四种生态系统服务功能均呈下降趋势;在2005—2015年间,闽三角城市群的保水、NPP与保土3种服务之间呈现协同关系,食物供给服务与其他三种服务均呈权衡关系,虽四种服务的权衡协同关系未变,但权衡协同程度发生了复杂的变化;在空间分布特征上,晋江流域的生态系统服务权衡协同程度均高于九龙江流域,闽三角3个城市的生态系统服务权衡协同关系统一呈现厦门市泉州市漳州市;在不同情境设置中,自然情景下4种生态系统服务出现大幅降低,协同关系主要呈降低趋势,而权衡关系加剧,与规划情景相比,保护情景下的协同关系更高,权衡关系更低。     

海峡两岸16个沿海城市生态系统功能比较

城市是一类社会-经济-自然复合生态系统,辨识其复杂的功能特征,需要一套科学的评价指标体系。选择北京、上海、深圳、广州、宁波、温州、天津、厦门、大连、无锡及台北、高雄、新竹、台南、台中、基隆16个中国大陆东部沿海与中国台湾岛西部沿海典型城市为研究区,结合城市生态系统理论、国家生态市建设指标、国内外生态城市评价指标及两岸沿海城市特色指标,构建两岸沿海典型城市生态系统功能评价指标体系,评价其社会、经济、自然子系统各自的功能及其协调发展程度。在自然子系统方面,由生态空间为基础,通过量化其提供的服务与自身代谢能力,说明自然子系统功能;社会子系统则通过其自身基本的人口承载能力、安全保障相关的社会稳定性及城市文化延续性进行判断;经济子系统功能需涉及当前的状态与未来的发展潜力,在此分别由生活富裕度与产业竞争力两方面进行探讨。基于3个子系统标准化后的数值构建协调系数,借以量化子系统间的协调发展情况。研究结果表明,由于台湾地区城市发展阶段相对超前,演化过程也相对成熟,于社会、经济子系统及整体功能上都有较高的功能值。依据本研究现有数据分析结果,16个典型城市中,单就各个子系统功能得分,自然子系统功能以台湾地区基隆市及大陆地区温州市较佳,社会子系统以台湾地区台北市及大陆地区厦门市较佳,经济子系统以台湾地区台北市及大陆地区北京市较佳。由于子系统间的协调发展有助于城市生态系统整体功能的提升,因此,台湾地区的基隆市及大陆地区上海市在社会、经济及环境保护的协调发展上亦有另一方面的借鉴意义。     

An integrated approach to inferring gene-disease associations in humans

One of the most important tasks of modern bioinformatics is the development of computational tools that can be used to understand and treat human disease. To date, a variety of methods have been explored and algorithms for candidate gene prioritization are gaining in their usefulness. Here, we propose an algorithm for detecting gene-disease associations based on the human protein-protein interaction network, known gene-disease associations, protein sequence, and protein functional information at the molecular level. Our method, PhenoPred, is supervised: first, we mapped each gene/protein onto the spaces of disease and functional terms based on distance to all annotated proteins in the protein interaction network. We also encoded sequence, function, physicochemical, and predicted structural properties, such as secondary structure and flexibility. We then trained support vector machines to detect gene-disease associations for a number of terms in Disease Ontology and provided evidence that, despite the noise/incompleteness of experimental data and unfinished ontology of diseases, identification of candidate genes can be successful even when a large number of candidate disease terms are predicted on simultaneously. Availability: www.phenopred.org.     

基于熵权的北京城市生态系统健康模糊综合评价

采用基于熵权的模糊数学评价方法,借助于相对隶属度的概念评价了北京城市生态系统在某一特定时间内(1996~2003年)的相对健康状态。方法避免了主观判断城市生态系统健康标准的不确定性。评价结果表明:(1)1996~2003年,北京市相对健康状态整体呈上升趋势,最优年为2003年,最差年为1996年;(2)按照最大隶属度原则,人类健康要素的最大隶属度0.967(2002),生物群落的最大隶属度1.000(2003),社会的最大隶属度1.000(2003),经济的最大隶属度0.938(2003),人工环境的最大隶属度1.000(2003),自然环境的最大隶属度0.795(1998),自然与社会经济的相互作用的最大隶属度0.916(2002),对区域的影响的最大隶属度1.000(1996)。各评价要素的最大隶属度主要集中于2003年,其概率为37.5%。     

An integrated approach to the prediction of domain-domain interactions

Background  

The development of high-throughput technologies has produced several large scale protein interaction data sets for multiple species, and significant efforts have been made to analyze the data sets in order to understand protein activities. Considering that the basic units of protein interactions are domain interactions, it is crucial to understand protein interactions at the level of the domains. The availability of many diverse biological data sets provides an opportunity to discover the underlying domain interactions within protein interactions through an integration of these biological data sets.