共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Modeling individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities has been one of the most challenging tasks in capture–recapture studies. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities can be modeled as a function of individual covariates, but correlation structure among capture occasions should be taking into account. A proposed generalized estimating equations (GEE) and generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approaches can be used to estimate capture probabilities and population size for capture–recapture closed population models. An example is used for an illustrative application and for comparison with currently used methodology. A simulation study is also conducted to show the performance of the estimation procedures. Our simulation results show that the proposed quasi‐likelihood based on GEE approach provides lower SE than partial likelihood based on either generalized linear models (GLM) or GLMM approaches for estimating population size in a closed capture–recapture experiment. Estimator performance is good if a large proportion of individuals are captured. For cases where only a small proportion of individuals are captured, the estimates become unstable, but the GEE approach outperforms the other methods. 相似文献
2.
We discuss a log-linear model for series of regular bird counts taken at a number of survey sites. The model is parameterized in terms of annual growth rates rather than actual indices of abundance, as is more frequently done. This not only permits easy estimation of and inference about these rates, but also allows us to model the effects upon population growth of covariates, such as the local presence of a competitor or predator, which may themselves vary in space and over time. A recursive relationship permits the expected count at a site to be functionally dependent upon the expected count at the previous visit. We discuss the advantages of using this relationship, rather than replacing the latter with their observed counterparts, as has been used previously. 相似文献
3.
Hans‐Peter Piepho 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2019,61(4):860-872
Extensions of linear models are very commonly used in the analysis of biological data. Whereas goodness of fit measures such as the coefficient of determination (R2) or the adjusted R2 are well established for linear models, it is not obvious how such measures should be defined for generalized linear and mixed models. There are by now several proposals but no consensus has yet emerged as to the best unified approach in these settings. In particular, it is an open question how to best account for heteroscedasticity and for covariance among observations present in residual error or induced by random effects. This paper proposes a new approach that addresses this issue and is universally applicable for arbitrary variance‐covariance structures including spatial models and repeated measures. It is exemplified using three biological examples. 相似文献
4.
Using long‐term mark–resighting data acquired over 27 years in continental France, we estimated demographic parameters and modelled the dynamics of a newly established population of Ospreys Pandion haliaetus using a life‐history model. We then performed prospective and retrospective analyses to estimate the sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic parameters, and to quantify their contribution to the observed variation in abundance. The observed population growth rate was estimated at 1.150 (from one to 38 pairs in the period 1985–2011), and the stochastic population growth rate was estimated at 1.156. The number of fledglings per nest made the largest contribution to the variance of the observed population growth rate. Breeding productivity was stable across years. In contrast, the prospective analysis indicated that the sensitivity of the population growth rate was greatest for immigration and adult survival. Our results suggest that the increase of a new and recently established breeding population of Ospreys was mainly driven by local dynamics (high productivity and high proportion of breeding individuals), with no sign of density‐dependence except for juvenile survival. This probably reflects highly favourable conditions for breeding. Our results show that productivity can be a major driver in recovering raptor populations, and conservation work should aim to protect occupied nest‐sites and their surrounding habitat and to maintain highly favourable foraging areas in the vicinity of breeding sites. 相似文献
5.
S. G. J. Senarathne Werner G. Müller James M. McGree 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2023,65(4):2100386
Model-based geostatistical design involves the selection of locations to collect data to minimize an expected loss function over a set of all possible locations. The loss function is specified to reflect the aim of data collection, which, for geostatistical studies, could be to minimize the prediction uncertainty at unobserved locations. In this paper, we propose a new approach to design such studies via a loss function derived through considering the entropy about the model predictions and the parameters of the model. The approach includes a multivariate extension to generalized linear spatial models, and thus can be used to design experiments with more than one response. Unfortunately, evaluating our proposed loss function is computationally expensive so we provide an approximation such that our approach can be adopted to design realistically sized geostatistical studies. This is demonstrated through a simulated study and through designing an air quality monitoring program in Queensland, Australia. The results show that our designs remain highly efficient in achieving each experimental objective individually, providing an ideal compromise between the two objectives. Accordingly, we advocate that our approach could be adopted more generally in model-based geostatistical design. 相似文献
6.
Climate, food, density and wildlife population growth rate 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
1. The aim of this study was to derive and evaluate a priori models of the relationship between annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) and climate. These were derived from the numerical response of annual r and food, and the effect of climate on a parameter in the numerical response. The goodness of fit of a range of such deductive models to data on annual r of Soay sheep and red deer were evaluated using information-theoretic (AICc-based) analyses. 2. The analysis for sheep annual r showed negative effects of abundance and negative effects of the interaction of abundance and climate, measured as March rainfall (and winter NAO) in the best fitting models. The analysis for deer annual r showed a negative effect of deer abundance and a positive effect of climate measured as March rainfall (but a negative effect of winter NAO), but no interaction of abundance and climate in the best fitting models. 3. There was most support in the analysis of sheep dynamics for the ratio numerical response and the assumption that parameter J (equilibrium food per animal) was influenced by climate. In the analysis of deer dynamics there was most support for the numerical responses assuming effects of food and density (Ivlev and density, food and density, and additive responses) and slightly less support for the ratio numerical response. The evaluation of such models would be aided by the collection of and incorporation of food data into the analyses. 相似文献
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Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions. 相似文献
9.
Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline. 相似文献
10.
Emiliano Trucchi Paolo Gratton Fabrizio Mafessoni Stefano Motta Francesco Cicconardi Filippo Mancia Giorgio Bertorelle Ilda D&#x;Annessa Daniele Di Marino 《Molecular biology and evolution》2021,38(5):1966
SARS-CoV-2 epidemics quickly propagated worldwide, sorting virus genomic variants in newly established propagules of infections. Stochasticity in transmission within and between countries or an actual selective advantage could explain the global high frequency reached by some genomic variants. Using statistical analyses, demographic reconstructions, and molecular dynamics simulations, we show that the globally invasive G614 spike variant 1) underwent a significant demographic expansion in most countries explained neither by stochastic effects nor by overrepresentation in clinical samples, 2) increases the spike S1/S2 furin-like site conformational plasticity (short-range effect), and 3) modifies the internal motion of the receptor-binding domain affecting its cross-connection with other functional domains (long-range effect). Our results support the hypothesis of a selective advantage at the basis of the spread of the G614 variant, which we suggest may be due to structural modification of the spike protein at the S1/S2 proteolytic site, and provide structural information to guide the design of variant-specific drugs. 相似文献
11.
Eric C. Lofroth Richard D. Weir Larry R. Davis Ingebjorg Jean Hansen 《The Journal of wildlife management》2023,87(1):e22315
Fishers (Pekania pennanti) are a forest-dependent carnivore of conservation concern in British Columbia, Canada. Ecological, spatial, and genetic evidence suggests that there are 2 distinct populations (Boreal and Columbian) that occur in forests at low to moderate elevations in the boreal and central interior regions of the province. In British Columbia, fishers occur at low densities relative to other parts of their range in North America, are trapped for their fur, and are sensitive to habitat change. Despite these factors, little demographic information exists to assist with management decisions for these populations. We collated and analyzed survival and reproductive data from 100 radio-tagged fishers from 5 independent studies conducted between 1990 and 2012 in British Columbia: 2 in the Boreal population, and 3 in the Columbian population. We also collated litter size data from 1 den box study and a translocation project of fishers from the Columbian population. Annual survival rates were not significantly different between the populations or between males and females; however, adult survival rates were higher than subadults (0.79 and 0.63, respectively). Subadult females had significantly lower survival rates than other sex or age classes. Reproductive rates were significantly different between the 2 populations (denning rate = 0.54 [Columbian], 0.82 [Boreal];
12.
Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of resistance to strongyles and coccidia in the free-living Soay sheep (Ovis aries) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Beraldi D McRae AF Gratten J Pilkington JG Slate J Visscher PM Pemberton JM 《International journal for parasitology》2007,37(1):121-129
A genome-wide scan was performed to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for resistance to gastrointestinal parasites and ectoparasitic keds segregating in the free-living Soay sheep population on St. Kilda (UK). The mapping panel consisted of a single pedigree of 882 individuals of which 588 were genotyped. The Soay linkage map used for the scans comprised 251 markers covering the whole genome at average spacing of 15cM. The traits here investigated were the strongyle faecal egg count (FEC), the coccidia faecal oocyst count (FOC) and a count of keds (Melophagus ovinus). QTL mapping was performed by means of variance component analysis so that the genetic parameters of the study traits were also estimated and compared with previous studies in Soay and domestic sheep. Strongyle FEC and coccidia FOC showed moderate heritability (h(2)=0.26 and 0.22, respectively) in lambs but low heritability in adults (h(2)<0.10). Ked count appeared to have very low h(2) in both lambs and adults. Genome scans were performed for the traits with moderate heritability and two genomic regions reached the level of suggestive linkage for coccidia FOC in lambs (logarithm of the odds=2.68 and 2.21 on chromosomes 3 and X, respectively). We believe this is the first study to report a QTL search for parasite resistance in a free-living animal population and therefore may represent a useful reference for similar studies aimed at understanding the genetics of host-parasite co-evolution in the wild. 相似文献
13.
Roberto C. Rodríguez-Caro Pol Capdevila Eva Graciá Jomar M. Barbosa Andrés Giménez Rob Salguero-Gómez 《Oikos》2021,130(8):1346-1358
Animal populations have developed multiple strategies to deal with environmental change. Among them, the demographic buffering strategy consists in constraining the temporal variation of the vital rate(s) that most affect(s) the overall performance of the population. Tortoises are known to buffer their temporal variation in adult survival, which typically has the highest contribution to the population growth rate λ, at the expense of a high variability on reproductive rates, which contribute far less to λ. To identify the effects of projected increases in droughts in its natural habitat, we use field data collected across 15 locations of Testudo graeca in southeast Spain over a decade. We analyse the effects of environmental variables on reproduction rates. In addition, we couple the demographic and environmental data to parameterise an integral projection model to simulate the effects of different scenarios of drought recurrence on λ under different degrees of intensity in the survival–reproduction tradeoff. We find that droughts negatively affect the probability of laying eggs; however, the overall effects on λ under the current drought recurrence (one/decade) are negligible when survival is constant (independent of the reduction of reproduction by drought events) and when survival increased as a tradeoff with the reduction of reproduction rates, with a threshold to population viability at three or more droughts/decade. Additionally, we show that, although some species may buffer current environmental regimes by carefully orchestrating how their vital rates vary through time, a demographic buffering strategy is insufficient to ensure population viability in extreme regimes. Our findings support the hypothesis that the demographic buffering strategy has a limit of effectiveness when adverse conditions occur frequently. Our methodological approach provides a framework for ecologists to determine how effective the management of environmental drivers can be for demographically buffering populations, and which scenarios may not provide long-term population persistence. 相似文献
14.
JAROD D. RAITHEL MATTHEW J. KAUFFMAN DANIEL H. PLETSCHER 《The Journal of wildlife management》2007,71(3):795-803
Abstract: The realized impact of a vital rate on population growth (λ) is determined by both the relative influence of the vital rate on λ (elasticity) and its magnitude of variability. We estimated mean survival and reproductive rates in elk (Cervus elaphus) and spatial and temporal variation in these rates from 37 sources located primarily across the Rocky Mountain region and northwestern United States. We removed sampling variance from estimates of process variance both within and across vital-rate data sets using the variance discounting method developed by White (2000). Deterministic elasticities calculated from a population matrix model parameterized with these mean vital rates ranked adult female survival (eScow = 0.869) much higher than calf survival (eScalf = 0.131). However, process variance in calf survival was >11 times greater than process variance in female survival across data sets and 10 times greater on average within studies. We conducted Life-Stage Simulation Analysis to incorporate both vital-rate elasticity patterns and empirical estimates of variability to identify those vital rates most influential in elk population dynamics. The overwhelming magnitude of variation in calf survival explained 75% of the variation in the population growth rates generated from 1,000 matrix replicates, compared to just 16% of the variation in λ explained by variation in female survival. Variation in calf survival greatly impacts elk population growth and calls into question the utility of classical elasticity analysis alone for guiding elk management. These results also suggest that the majority of interannual variability that wildlife managers document in late-winter and spring elk surveys is attributable to variation in calf survival over the previous year and less influenced by variation in the harvest of females during the preceding autumn. To meet elk population size objectives, managers should consider the inherent variation in calf survival, and its apparent sensitivity to management, in addition to female harvest. 相似文献
15.
- Bdelloid rotifers are able to survive habitat desiccation in a dehydrated state termed anhydrobiosis. They suffer from decreasing fitness when they are exposed to permanent hydration, yet they restore fitness when they go through anhydrobiosis. The demographic processes underlying this rejuvenation, however, are still largely unknown.
- To investigate these processes in detail, we analysed life tables of permanently hydrated and repeatedly desiccated lines of two species of bdelloid rotifers, Macrotrachela quadricornifera and Adineta ricciae. Experimental lineages of these two species originated from habitats with contrasting desiccation frequencies.
- First, we built a three‐stage life cycle including juveniles as well as prime and senescent adults. Next, we estimated stage‐specific vital rates (survival, development, and reproduction) and used the estimates to project the asymptotic population growth rates λ (= er). Finally, we applied life‐table response experiment methods and performed elasticity analysis to assess the contributions of each vital rate to differences in λ and to estimate effects of proportional changes in vital rates on λ, respectively.
- We demonstrated that repeatedly desiccated lines grew faster than permanently hydrated lines. In addition, we confirmed that offspring of post‐anhydrobiotic individuals had higher fecundities and matured faster than individuals of the permanently hydrated lines. Survival rates usually did not differ between the two lines, but λ was most elastic to survival rates of prime adults and juveniles. These general life‐history patterns were observed in both species.
- The analyses performed here provide a detailed investigation of the demographic processes underlying fitness restoration in anhydrobiotic bdelloid rotifers. They reveal that habitat desiccation has profound and consistent effects on the life histories of the two study species. Because laboratory lineages of these species originated from habitats characterised by different wet/dry regimes, we suggest that the desiccation responses identified here may be representative for the entire taxon. As such, our study offers a starting point for comparative analyses beyond bdelloid rotifers.
16.
Maíra Blumer Fatoretto Rafael de Andrade Moral Clarice Garcia Borges Demétrio Christopher Silva de Pádua Vinicius Menarin Víctor Manuel Arévalo Rojas 《Biocontrol Science and Technology》2018,28(11):1034-1053
ABSTRACTProportion data from dose-response experiments are often overdispersed, characterised by a larger variance than assumed by the standard binomial model. Here, we present different models proposed in the literature that incorporate overdispersion. We also discuss how to select the best model to describe the data and present, using R software, specific code used to fit and interpret binomial, quasi-binomial, beta-binomial, and binomial-normal models, as well as to assess goodness-of-fit. We illustrate applications of these generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed models with a case study from a biological control experiment, where different isolates of Isaria fumosorosea (Hypocreales: Cordycipitaceae) were used to assess which ones presented higher resistance to UV-B radiation. We show how to test for differences between isolates and also how to statistically group isolates presenting a similar behaviour. 相似文献
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18.
Despite the widespread recognition of the importance of monitoring, only a few studies have explored how estimates of vital rates and predictions of population dynamics change with additional data collected along the monitoring program. We investigate how estimates of survival and individual growth, along with predictions about future population size, change with additional years of monitoring and data collected, using as a model system freshwater populations of marble (Salmo marmoratus), rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) living in Western Slovenian streams. Fish were sampled twice a year between 2004 and 2015. We found that in 3 out of 4 populations, a few years of data (3 or 4 sampling occasions, between 300 and 500 tagged individuals for survival, 100–200 for growth) provided the same estimates of average survival and growth as those obtained with data from more than 15 sampling occasions, while the estimation of the range of survival (i.e., the difference, over all sampling occasions considered, between maximum and minimum survival estimated in a sampling occasion) required more sampling occasions (up to 22 for marble trout), with little reduction of uncertainty around the point estimates. Predictions of mean density and variation in density over time did not change with more data collected after the first 5 years (i.e., 10 sampling occasions) and overall were within 10% of the observed mean and variation in density over the whole monitoring program. 相似文献
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