Mayaro Virus Infection in Amazonia: A Multimodel Inference Approach to Risk Factor Assessment

Background

Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data – particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT) and step-wise regression (SWR). Using Mayaro virus (MAYV) as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI) with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects) in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The “minimum adequate” SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (β±SE) on which to base inference. Residence area (β _Village = 2.93±0.41; β _Upland = −0.56±0.33, β _Riverbanks = −2.37±0.55) and bednet use (β = −0.95±0.28) were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (β = 0.39±0.22) and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (β = 0.19±0.13); domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles in village-like areas. This suggests either a vector shift (synanthropic mosquitoes vectoring MAYV) or a habitat/habits shift (classical MAYV vectors adapting to densely populated landscapes and nocturnal biting); any such ecological/adaptive novelty could increase the likelihood of MAYV emergence in Amazonia.     

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys,Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector,in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg. janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg. janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.     

Detection of Mayaro virus in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes circulating in Goiânia-Goiás-Brazil

The Arboviral diseases are caused by arthropod-borne viruses, such as Mayaro virus (MAYV), the etiological agent of Mayaro fever. This disease has been drawing the attention of the public health authorities for the increased number of cases likely due to virus adaptation for survival to urban areas as well as infection and multiplication in other vectors insects. Therefore, this work aimed to identify the MAYV infecting Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Goiânia, the capital of state of Goiás, Brazil. For the development of study, the larvae of A. aegypti were collected in Basic Health Units from different regions of Goiânia then the larvae were grown to adult mosquitoes in controlled laboratory conditions. The female mosquitoes were submitted to the procedure of head and body separation. The RNAs obtained from these samples were analyzed by real-time PCR for identification of arboviruses. We only detect the presence of MAVY in the mosquitoes, in this sense our findings suggest that A. aegypti harbor MAYV in different anatomical sites, and potentially the process of vertical transmission of MAYV can occur in this vector.     

Non-replicating adenovirus based Mayaro virus vaccine elicits protective immune responses and cross protects against other alphaviruses

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an alphavirus endemic to South and Central America associated with sporadic outbreaks in humans. MAYV infection causes severe joint and muscle pain that can persist for weeks to months. Currently, there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics to prevent MAYV infection or treat the debilitating musculoskeletal inflammatory disease. In the current study, a prophylactic MAYV vaccine expressing the complete viral structural polyprotein was developed based on a non-replicating human adenovirus V (AdV) platform. Vaccination with AdV-MAYV elicited potent neutralizing antibodies that protected WT mice against MAYV challenge by preventing viremia, reducing viral dissemination to tissues and mitigating viral disease. The vaccine also prevented viral-mediated demise in IFN⍺R1^-/- mice. Passive transfer of immune serum from vaccinated animals similarly prevented infection and disease in WT mice as well as virus-induced demise of IFN⍺R1^-/- mice, indicating that antiviral antibodies are protective. Immunization with AdV-MAYV also generated cross-neutralizing antibodies against two related arthritogenic alphaviruses–chikungunya and Una viruses. These cross-neutralizing antibodies were protective against lethal infection in IFN⍺R1^-/- mice following challenge with these heterotypic alphaviruses. These results indicate AdV-MAYV elicits protective immune responses with substantial cross-reactivity and protective efficacy against other arthritogenic alphaviruses. Our findings also highlight the potential for development of a multi-virus targeting vaccine against alphaviruses with endemic and epidemic potential in the Americas.     

Deciphering the Nucleotide and RNA Binding Selectivity of the Mayaro Virus Macro Domain

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a member of Togaviridae family, which also includes Chikungunya virus as a notorious member. MAYV recently emerged in urban areas of the Americas, and this emergence emphasized the current paucity of knowledge about its replication cycle. The macro domain (MD) of MAYV belongs to the N-terminal region of its non-structural protein 3, part of the replication complex. Here, we report the first structural and dynamical characterization of a previously unexplored Alphavirus MD investigated through high-resolution NMR spectroscopy, along with data on its ligand selectivity and binding properties. The structural analysis of MAYV MD reveals a typical “macro” (ββαββαβαβα) fold for this polypeptide, while NMR-driven interaction studies provide in-depth insights into MAYV MD–ligand adducts. NMR data in concert with thermodynamics and biochemical studies provide convincing experimental evidence for preferential binding of adenosine diphosphate ribose (ADP‐r) and adenine-rich RNAs to MAYV MD, thus shedding light on the structure–function relationship of a previously unexplored viral MD. The emerging differences with any other related MD are expected to enlighten distinct functions.     

Arboviral Etiologies of Acute Febrile Illnesses in Western South America, 2000–2007

Background

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are among the most common agents of human febrile illness worldwide and the most important emerging pathogens, causing multiple notable epidemics of human disease over recent decades. Despite the public health relevance, little is know about the geographic distribution, relative impact, and risk factors for arbovirus infection in many regions of the world. Our objectives were to describe the arboviruses associated with acute undifferentiated febrile illness in participating clinics in four countries in South America and to provide detailed epidemiological analysis of arbovirus infection in Iquitos, Peru, where more extensive monitoring was conducted.

Methodology/Findings

A clinic-based syndromic surveillance system was implemented in 13 locations in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Serum samples and demographic information were collected from febrile participants reporting to local health clinics or hospitals. Acute-phase sera were tested for viral infection by immunofluorescence assay or RT-PCR, while acute- and convalescent-phase sera were tested for pathogen-specific IgM by ELISA. Between May 2000 and December 2007, 20,880 participants were included in the study, with evidence for recent arbovirus infection detected for 6,793 (32.5%). Dengue viruses (Flavivirus) were the most common arbovirus infections, totaling 26.0% of febrile episodes, with DENV-3 as the most common serotype. Alphavirus (Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus [VEEV] and Mayaro virus [MAYV]) and Orthobunyavirus (Oropouche virus [OROV], Group C viruses, and Guaroa virus) infections were both observed in approximately 3% of febrile episodes. In Iquitos, risk factors for VEEV and MAYV infection included being male and reporting to a rural (vs urban) clinic. In contrast, OROV infection was similar between sexes and type of clinic.

Conclusions/Significance

Our data provide a better understanding of the geographic range of arboviruses in South America and highlight the diversity of pathogens in circulation. These arboviruses are currently significant causes of human illness in endemic regions but also have potential for further expansion. Our data provide a basis for analyzing changes in their ecology and epidemiology.     

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America,under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.     

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the potential non-human animal reservoirs and arthropod vectors of the Mayaro virus

Improving our understanding of Mayaro virus (MAYV) ecology is critical to guide surveillance and risk assessment. We conducted a PRISMA-adherent systematic review of the published and grey literature to identify potential arthropod vectors and non-human animal reservoirs of MAYV. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO and grey-literature sources including PAHO databases and dissertation repositories. Studies were included if they assessed MAYV virological/immunological measured occurrence in field-caught, domestic, or sentinel animals or in field-caught arthropods. We conducted an animal seroprevalence meta-analysis using a random effects model. We compiled granular georeferenced maps of non-human MAYV occurrence and graded the quality of the studies using a customized framework. Overall, 57 studies were eligible out of 1523 screened, published between the years 1961 and 2020. Seventeen studies reported MAYV positivity in wild mammals, birds, or reptiles and five studies reported MAYV positivity in domestic animals. MAYV positivity was reported in 12 orders of wild-caught vertebrates, most frequently in the orders Charadriiformes and Primate. Sixteen studies detected MAYV in wild-caught mosquito genera including Haemagogus, Aedes, Culex, Psorophora, Coquillettidia, and Sabethes. Vertebrate animals or arthropods with MAYV were detected in Brazil, Panama, Peru, French Guiana, Colombia, Trinidad, Venezuela, Argentina, and Paraguay. Among non-human vertebrates, the Primate order had the highest pooled seroprevalence at 13.1% (95% CI: 4.3–25.1%). From the three most studied primate genera we found the highest seroprevalence was in Alouatta (32.2%, 95% CI: 0.0–79.2%), followed by Callithrix (17.8%, 95% CI: 8.6–28.5%), and Cebus/Sapajus (3.7%, 95% CI: 0.0–11.1%). We further found that MAYV occurs in a wide range of vectors beyond Haemagogus spp. The quality of evidence behind these findings was variable and prompts calls for standardization of reporting of arbovirus occurrence. These findings support further risk emergence prediction, guide field surveillance efforts, and prompt further in-vivo studies to better define the ecological drivers of MAYV maintenance and potential for emergence.     

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.     

Malaria in Brazil: what happens outside the Amazonian endemic region

Brazil, a country of continental proportions, presents three profiles of malaria transmission. The first and most important numerically, occurs inside the Amazon. The Amazon accounts for approximately 60% of the nation’s territory and approximately 13% of the Brazilian population. This region hosts 99.5% of the nation’s malaria cases, which are predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax (i.e., 82% of cases in 2013). The second involves imported malaria, which corresponds to malaria cases acquired outside the region where the individuals live or the diagnosis was made. These cases are imported from endemic regions of Brazil (i.e., the Amazon) or from other countries in South and Central America, Africa and Asia. Imported malaria comprised 89% of the cases found outside the area of active transmission in Brazil in 2013. These cases highlight an important question with respect to both therapeutic and epidemiological issues because patients, especially those with falciparum malaria, arriving in a region where the health professionals may not have experience with the clinical manifestations of malaria and its diagnosis could suffer dramatic consequences associated with a potential delay in treatment. Additionally, because the Anopheles vectors exist in most of the country, even a single case of malaria, if not diagnosed and treated immediately, may result in introduced cases, causing outbreaks and even introducing or reintroducing the disease to a non-endemic, receptive region. Cases introduced outside the Amazon usually occur in areas in which malaria was formerly endemic and are transmitted by competent vectors belonging to the subgenus Nyssorhynchus (i.e., Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles aquasalis and species of the Albitarsis complex). The third type of transmission accounts for only 0.05% of all cases and is caused by autochthonous malaria in the Atlantic Forest, located primarily along the southeastern Atlantic Coast. They are caused by parasites that seem to be (or to be very close to) P. vivax and, in a less extent, by Plasmodium malariae and it is transmitted by the bromeliad mosquito Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii. This paper deals mainly with the two profiles of malaria found outside the Amazon: the imported and ensuing introduced cases and the autochthonous cases. We also provide an update regarding the situation in Brazil and the Brazilian endemic Amazon.     

Locally Confined Clonal Complexes of Mycobacterium ulcerans in Two Buruli Ulcer Endemic Regions of Cameroon

Background Mycobacterium ulcerans is the causative agent of the necrotizing skin disease Buruli ulcer (BU), which has been reported from over 30 countries worldwide. The majority of notified patients come from West African countries, such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Benin and Cameroon. All clinical isolates of M. ulcerans from these countries are closely related and their genomes differ only in a limited number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).ConclusionsOur comparative genomic analysis revealed that M. ulcerans clones diversify locally by the accumulation of SNPs. Case isolates coming from more recently emerging BU endemic areas, such as the Mapé river basin, may be less diverse than populations from longer standing disease foci, such as the Nyong river basin. Exchange of strains between distinct endemic areas seems to be rare and local clonal complexes can be easily distinguished by whole genome sequencing.     

Dynamics of the Force of Infection: Insights from Echinococcus multilocularis Infection in Foxes

Characterizing the force of infection (FOI) is an essential part of planning cost effective control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis in humans, a serious disease with a high fatality rate and an increasing global spread. Red foxes are high prevalence hosts of E. multilocularis. Through a mathematical modelling approach, using field data collected from in and around the city of Zurich, Switzerland, we find compelling evidence that the FOI is periodic with highly variable amplitude, and, while this amplitude is similar across habitat types, the mean FOI differs markedly between urban and periurban habitats suggesting a considerable risk differential. The FOI, during an annual cycle, ranges from (0.1,0.8) insults (95% CI) in urban habitat in the summer to (9.4, 9.7) (95% CI) in periurban (rural) habitat in winter. Such large temporal and spatial variations in FOI suggest that control strategies are optimal when tailored to local FOI dynamics.     

Impact of Epstein-Barr virus co-infection on natural acquired Plasmodium vivax antibody response

BackgroundThe simultaneous infection of Plasmodium falciparum and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) could promote the development of the aggressive endemic Burkitt’s Lymphoma (eBL) in children living in P. falciparum holoendemic areas. While it is well-established that eBL is not related to other human malaria parasites, the impact of EBV infection on the generation of human malaria immunity remains largely unexplored. Considering that this highly prevalent herpesvirus establishes a lifelong persistent infection on B-cells with possible influence on malaria immunity, we hypothesized that EBV co-infection could have impact on the naturally acquired antibody responses to P. vivax, the most widespread human malaria parasite.Methodology/Principal findingsThe study design involved three cross-sectional surveys at six-month intervals (baseline, 6 and 12 months) among long-term P. vivax exposed individuals living in the Amazon rainforest. The approach focused on a group of malaria-exposed individuals whose EBV-DNA (amplification of balf-5 gene) was persistently detected in the peripheral blood (PersV_DNA, n = 27), and an age-matched malaria-exposed group whose EBV-DNA could never be detected during the follow-up (NegV_DNA, n = 29). During the follow-up period, the serological detection of EBV antibodies to lytic/ latent viral antigens showed that IgG antibodies to viral capsid antigen (VCA-p18) were significantly different between groups (PersV_DNA > NegV_DNA). A panel of blood-stage P. vivax antigens covering a wide range of immunogenicity confirmed that in general PersV_DNA group showed low levels of antibodies as compared with NegV_DNA. Interestingly, more significant differences were observed to a novel DBPII immunogen, named DEKnull-2, which has been associated with long-term neutralizing antibody response. Differences between groups were less pronounced with blood-stage antigens (such as MSP1-19) whose levels can fluctuate according to malaria transmission.Conclusions/SignificanceIn a proof-of-concept study we provide evidence that a persistent detection of EBV-DNA in peripheral blood of adults in a P. vivax semi-immune population may impact the long-term immune response to major malaria vaccine candidates.     

Long-Term Arthralgia after Mayaro Virus Infection Correlates with Sustained Pro-inflammatory Cytokine Response

Mayaro virus (MAYV), an alphavirus similar to chikungunya virus (CHIKV), causes an acute debilitating disease which results in the development of long-term arthralgia in more than 50% of infected individuals. Currently, the immune response and its role in the development of MAYV-induced persistent arthralgia remain unknown. In this study, we evaluated the immune response of individuals with confirmed MAYV infection in a one-year longitudinal study carried out in Loreto, Peru. We report that MAYV infection elicits robust immune responses that result in the development of a strong neutralizing antibody response and the secretion of pro-inflammatory immune mediators. The composition of these inflammatory mediators, in some cases, differed to those previously observed for CHIKV. Key mediators such as IL-13, IL-7 and VEGF were strongly induced following MAYV infection and were significantly increased in subjects that eventually developed persistent arthralgia. Although a strong neutralizing antibody response was observed in all subjects, it was not sufficient to prevent the long-term outcomes of MAYV infection. This study provides initial immunologic insight that may eventually contribute to prognostic tools and therapeutic treatments against this emerging pathogen.     

Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study

BackgroundCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a highly pathogenic virus for which a safe and effective vaccine is not yet available, despite being considered a priority emerging pathogen. Understanding transmission patterns and the use of potential effective vaccines are central elements of the future plan against this infection.MethodsWe developed a series of models of transmission amongst livestock, and spillover infection into humans. We use real-world human and animal data from a CCHFV endemic area in Afghanistan (Herat) to calibrate our models. We assess the value of environmental drivers as proxy indicators of vector activity, and select the best model using deviance information criteria. Finally we assess the impact of vaccination by simulating campaigns targeted to humans or livestock, and to high-risk subpopulations (i.e, farmers).FindingsSaturation deficit is the indicator that better explains tick activity trends in Herat. Recent increments in reported CCHFV cases in this area are more likely explained by increased surveillance capacity instead of changes in the background transmission dynamics. Modelling suggests that clinical cases only represent 31% (95% CrI 28%-33%) of total infections in this area. Vaccination campaigns targeting humans would result in a much larger impact than livestock vaccination (266 vs 31 clinical cases averted respectively) and a more efficient option when assessed in courses per case averted (35 vs 431 respectively). Targeted vaccination of farmers is impactful and more efficient, resulting in 19 courses per case averted (95% CrI 7–62) compared to targeting the general population (35 courses 95% CrI 16–107)ConclusionsCCHFV is endemic in Herat, and transmission cycles are well predicted by environmental drivers like saturation deficit. Vaccinating humans is likely to be more efficient and impactful than animals, and importantly targeted interventions to high risk groups like farmers can offer a more efficient approach to vaccine roll-out.     

Historical Shifts in Brazilian P. falciparum Population Structure and Drug Resistance Alleles

Previous work suggests that Brazilian Plasmodium falciparum has limited genetic diversity and a history of bottlenecks, multiple reintroductions due to human migration, and clonal expansions. We hypothesized that Brazilian P. falciparum would exhibit clonal structure. We examined isolates collected across two decades from Amapá, Rondônia, and Pará state (n = 190). By examining more microsatellites markers on more chromosomes than previous studies, we hoped to define the extent of low diversity, linkage disequilibrium, bottlenecks, population structure, and parasite migration within Brazil. We used retrospective genotyping of samples from the 1980s and 1990s to explore the population genetics of SP resistant dhfr and dhps alleles. We tested an existing hypothesis that the triple mutant dhfr mutations 50R/51I/108N and 51I/108N/164L developed in southern Amazon from a single origin of common or similar parasites. We found that Brazilian P. falciparum had limited genetic diversity and isolation by distance was rejected, which suggests it underwent bottlenecks followed by migration between sites. Unlike Peru, there appeared to be gene flow across the Brazilian Amazon basin. We were unable to divide parasite populations by clonal lineages and pairwise FST were common. Most parasite diversity was found within sites in the Brazilian Amazon, according to AMOVA. Our results challenge the hypothesis that triple mutant alleles arose from a single lineage in the Southern Amazon. SP resistance, at both the double and triple mutant stages, developed twice and potentially in different regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We would have required samples from before the 1980s to describe how SP resistance spread across the basin or describe the complex internal migration of Brazilian parasites after the colonization efforts of past decades. The Brazilian Amazon basin may have sufficient internal migration for drug resistance reported in any particular region to rapidly spread to other parts of basin under similar drug pressure.     

Spatial Analysis of Schistosomiasis in Hubei Province,China: A GIS-Based Analysis of Schistosomiasis from 2009 to 2013

Background

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in China. The major endemic areas are located in the lake and marshland regions of southern China, particularly in areas along the middle and low reach of the Yangtze River. Spatial analytical techniques are often used in epidemiology to identify spatial clusters in disease regions. This study assesses the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and explores high-risk regions in Hubei Province, China to provide guidance on schistosomiasis control in marshland regions.

Methods

In this study, spatial autocorrelation methodologies, including global Moran’s I and local Getis–Ord statistics, were utilized to describe and map spatial clusters and areas where human Schistosoma japonicum infection is prevalent at the county level in Hubei province. In addition, linear logistic regression model was used to determine the characteristics of spatial autocorrelation with time.

Results

The infection rates of S. japonicum decreased from 2009 to 2013. The global autocorrelation analysis results on the infection rate of S. japonicum for five years showed statistical significance (Moran’s I > 0, P < 0.01), which suggested that spatial clusters were present in the distribution of S. japonicum infection from 2009 to 2013. Local autocorrelation analysis results showed that the number of highly aggregated areas ranged from eight to eleven within the five-year analysis period. The highly aggregated areas were mainly distributed in eight counties.

Conclusions

The spatial distribution of human S. japonicum infections did not exhibit a temporal change at the county level in Hubei Province. The risk factors that influence human S. japonicum transmission may not have changed after achieving the national criterion of infection control. The findings indicated that spatial–temporal surveillance of S. japonicum transmission plays a significant role on schistosomiasis control. Timely and integrated prevention should be continued, especially in the Yangtze River Basin of Jianghan Plain area.     

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels—assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%—we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8–6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000–61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000–43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7–6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000–30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7–15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000–82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000–38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Alexandra Hogan and colleagues explore strategies to optimize vaccine allocation for maximum public health benefit in the face of potential supply constraints.