Communicating the consensus on climate change to college biology majors: The importance of preaching to the choir

College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action.     

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well‐studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate‐change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between‐researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.     

Bioethics and the Framing of Climate Change's Health Risks

Cheryl Cox MacPherson recently argued, in an article for this journal, that ‘Climate Change is a Bioethics Problem’. This article elaborates on that position, particularly highlighting bioethicists' potential ability to help reframe the current climate change discourse to give more attention to its health risks. This reframing process is especially important because of the looming problem of climate change skepticism. Recent empirical evidence from science framing experiments indicates that the public reacts especially positively to climate change messages framed in public health terms, and bioethicists are particularly well positioned to contribute their expertise to the process of carefully developing and communicating such messages. Additionally, as climate framing research and practice continue, it will be important for bioethicists to contribute to the creation of that project's nascent ethical standards. The discourse surrounding antibiotic resistance is posited as an example that can lend insight into how communicating a public health‐framed message, including the participation of bioethicists, can help to override public skepticism about the findings of politically contentious scientific fields.     

Climate change challenges,plant science solutions

Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.

We discuss research aimed at improving carbon sequestering capacity and climate resilience in plants to illustrate how plant science can help to mitigate climate change and enhance food security.     

The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.     

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large‐scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low‐elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.     

Gravity is a pull! Exploring forces and motion with English learners

English learners (ELs) benefit from inquiry-based science instruction that includes explicit attention to language learning goals. The purpose of this article is to share a third-grade unit on forces and motion which integrates science inquiry and writing in science notebooks with the goal of developing ELs' engagement in science, conceptual understanding, and academic language and literacy skills. We demonstrate how to engage diverse students' background knowledge and use classroom activities and discussion to create bridges between everyday and academic language. We utilize excerpts from Peter, Lucia, and Andrea's science notebooks to explore and highlight how teachers can use this resource as a means of communicating science, during instruction. Through these EL students' journals, we discuss the importance of developing language goals at the word, sentence, and discourse level while promoting and supporting ELs' use of the language of science.     

Integrating Homo sapiens into ecological models: Imperatives of climate change

In the opening lecture at a 2013 Banff International Research Station (BIRS) workshop on the impact of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions, Henri Berestycki (École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales) asked a crucial question: Can a species keep pace with a changing climate? “Species” in this context was generally understood to be all living things on Earth (except humans). But mounting scientific evidence suggests that it is time to pose the parallel question: Can Homo sapiens keep pace with a changing climate? Furthermore, should we merely “keep pace”, or should we strive to get ahead and then do our utmost to stop any further climate change?In this paper we document the very real potential for climate change to have devastating consequences before the end of this century. The urgency of the situation calls for concerted action by anyone who understands the problem, and mathematical ecologists are uniquely trained to contribute to such efforts. We ask modellers to deliberately incorporate the species H. sapiens into their modelling work, and offer suggestions as to how this might be done. Ultimately modellers must seek ways to provide guidance to citizens and policy-makers as we all wrestle with the most important existential threat of our time.     

Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel,the seabird Cassin's auklet

Forecasting the ecological effects of climate change on marine species is critical for informing greenhouse gas mitigation targets and developing marine conservation strategies that remain effective and increase species' resilience under changing climate conditions. Highly productive coastal upwelling systems are predicted to experience substantial effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We used a population modeling approach to examine the consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling ecosystem on the population growth rate of the planktivorous seabird Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We use future climate projections for sea surface temperature and upwelling intensity from a regional climate model to forecast changes in the population growth rate of the auklet population at the important Farallon Island colony in central California. Our study projected that the auklet population growth rate will experience an absolute decline of 11–45% by the end of the century, placing this population on a trajectory toward extinction. In addition, future changes in upwelling intensity and timing of peak upwelling are likely to vary across auklet foraging regions in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), producing a mosaic of climate conditions and ecological impacts across the auklet range. Overall, the Farallon Island Cassin's auklet population has been declining during recent decades, and ocean climate change in this century under a mid‐level emissions scenario is projected to accelerate this decline, leading toward population extinction. Because our study species has proven to be a sensitive indicator of oceanographic conditions in the CCE and a powerful predictor of the abundance of other important predators (i.e. salmon), the significant impacts we predicted for the Cassin's auklet provide insights into the consequences that ocean climate change may have for other plankton predators in this system.     

中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇整合分析

国家尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程的研究对于提升地球系统科学与全球变化科学的科技创新能力、提高我国参与应对全球气候变化国际行动和维护国家利益的话语权、保障国家生态安全和改进生态系统管理都具有重要意义。近年来,我国已经在气候变化与陆地生态系统碳循环领域开展了大量的研究工作,主要包括国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演等手段。然而,由于大尺度陆地生态系统碳源/汇的估算存在很大的不确定性,目前尚未形成国家尺度的陆地生态系统碳源/汇的整合分析。通过搜集已发表的关于中国陆地生态系统及其组分碳源/汇的59篇文献,整合国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演3种研究手段,分析中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇大小以及时间尺度上的动态变化。结果表明,在1960s-2010s期间中国陆地生态系统碳汇整体呈上升趋势,平均为（0.213±0.030）Pg C/a,其中森林、草地、农田和灌木生态系统碳汇分别为（0.101±0.023）Pg C/a、（0.032±0.007）Pg C/a、（0.043±0.010）Pg C/a和（0.028±0.010）Pg C/a。森林生态系统中的植被碳汇远大于土壤碳汇,然而这种格局在草地和农田生态系统却相反,而且1960s-2010s期间中国主要植被类型的生态系统碳汇总体上随时间呈增加趋势。融合多源数据（地面观测、激光雷达、卫星遥感等）、多尺度数据（样地尺度、站点尺度、区域尺度）以及多手段数据（联网观测、森林清查、模型模拟）,有助于全面准确地评估中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇及其对气候变化的响应。     

On being a (modern) scientist: risks of public engagement in the UK interspecies embryo debate

In 2006, a small group of UK academic scientists made headlines when they proposed the creation of interspecies embryos – mixing human and animal genetic material. A public campaign was fought to mobilize support for the research. Drawing on interviews with the key scientists involved, this paper argues that engaging the public through communicating their ideas via the media can result in tensions between the necessity of, and inherent dangers in, scientists campaigning on controversial issues. Some scientists believed that communicating science had damaged their professional standing in the eyes of their peers, who, in turn, policed the boundaries around what they believed constituted a “good” scientist. Tensions between promoting “science” versus promotion of the “scientist”; engaging the public versus publishing peer-reviewed articles and winning grants; and building expectations versus overhyping the science reveal the difficult choices scientists in the modern world have to make over the potential gains and risks of communicating science. We conclude that although scientists' participation in public debates is often encouraged, the rewards of such engagement remain. Moreover, this participation can detrimentally affect scientists' careers.     

Simple Messages Help Set the Record Straight about Scientific Agreement on Human-Caused Climate Change: The Results of Two Experiments

Human-caused climate change is happening; nearly all climate scientists are convinced of this basic fact according to surveys of experts and reviews of the peer-reviewed literature. Yet, among the American public, there is widespread misunderstanding of this scientific consensus. In this paper, we report results from two experiments, conducted with national samples of American adults, that tested messages designed to convey the high level of agreement in the climate science community about human-caused climate change. The first experiment tested hypotheses about providing numeric versus non-numeric assertions concerning the level of scientific agreement. We found that numeric statements resulted in higher estimates of the scientific agreement. The second experiment tested the effect of eliciting respondents’ estimates of scientific agreement prior to presenting them with a statement about the level of scientific agreement. Participants who estimated the level of agreement prior to being shown the corrective statement gave higher estimates of the scientific consensus than respondents who were not asked to estimate in advance, indicating that incorporating an “estimation and reveal” technique into public communication about scientific consensus may be effective. The interaction of messages with political ideology was also tested, and demonstrated that messages were approximately equally effective among liberals and conservatives. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Microclimate‐driven trends in spring‐emergence phenology in a temperate reptile (Vipera berus): Evidence for a potential “climate trap”?

Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a “climate trap”—a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re‐emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring‐emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below‐ and near‐ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree‐hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring‐emergence timing. Trends in annual‐emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post‐emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this “climate trap” was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.     

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country''s CO₂ emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world''s largest CO₂ emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others'' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.     

The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science

Background

Among American Conservatives, but not Liberals, trust in science has been declining since the 1970''s. Climate science has become particularly polarized, with Conservatives being more likely than Liberals to reject the notion that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the globe. Conversely, opposition to genetically-modified (GM) foods and vaccinations is often ascribed to the political Left although reliable data are lacking. There are also growing indications that rejection of science is suffused by conspiracist ideation, that is the general tendency to endorse conspiracy theories including the specific beliefs that inconvenient scientific findings constitute a “hoax.”

Methodology/Principal findings

We conducted a propensity weighted internet-panel survey of the U.S. population and show that conservatism and free-market worldview strongly predict rejection of climate science, in contrast to their weaker and opposing effects on acceptance of vaccinations. The two worldview variables do not predict opposition to GM. Conspiracist ideation, by contrast, predicts rejection of all three scientific propositions, albeit to greatly varying extents. Greater endorsement of a diverse set of conspiracy theories predicts opposition to GM foods, vaccinations, and climate science.

Conclusions

Free-market worldviews are an important predictor of the rejection of scientific findings that have potential regulatory implications, such as climate science, but not necessarily of other scientific issues. Conspiracist ideation, by contrast, is associated with the rejection of all scientific propositions tested. We highlight the manifold cognitive reasons why conspiracist ideation would stand in opposition to the scientific method. The involvement of conspiracist ideation in the rejection of science has implications for science communicators.     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.     

How climate change affects the seasonal ecology of insect parasitoids

1. In the context of global change, modifications in winter conditions may disrupt the seasonal phenology patterns of organisms, modify the synchrony of closely interacting species and lead to unpredictable outcomes at different ecological scales. 2. Parasites are present in almost every food web and their interactions with hosts greatly contribute to ecosystem functioning. Among upper trophic levels of terrestrial ecosystems, insect parasitoids are key components in terms of functioning and species richness. Parasitoids respond to climate change in similar ways to other insects, but their close relationship with their hosts and their particular life cycle – alternating between parasitic and free-living forms – make them special cases. 3. This article reviews of the mechanisms likely to undergo plastic or evolutionary adjustments when exposed to climate change that could modify insect seasonal strategies. Different scenarios are then proposed for the evolution of parasitoid insect seasonal ecology by exploring three anticipated outcomes of climate change: (i) decreased severity of winter cold; (ii) decreased winter duration; and (iii) increased extreme seasonal climatic events and environmental stochasticity. 4. The capacities of insects to adapt to new environmental conditions, either through plasticity or genetic evolution, are highlighted. They may reduce diapause expression, adapt to changing cues to initiate or terminate diapause, increase voltinism, or develop overwintering bet-hedging strategies, but parasitoids' responses will be highly constrained by those of their hosts. 5. Changes in the seasonal ecology of parasitoids may have consequences on host–parasitoid synchrony and population cycles, food-web functioning, and ecosystem services such as biological pest control.     

From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

Detailed studies of organisms' life cycles are important for understanding population response to climate change. However, in general one cannot make strong inference about the overall population response from such studies, unless the full annual cycle of the species in question is covered. Here, we present a theoretical framework for the understanding of population response to climate change. Owing to the combined effects of demography, intraspecific feedback, and a possible use of environmental cues, environmentally induced changes in survival and/or reproduction do not necessarily lead to a straightforward change in population size. This framework can guide our thinking about how abiotic conditions work their way to the population level. More specifically, it can help us to identify mechanisms that need to be examined when predicting population change in response to expected climate change.     

Preaching to the choir or composing new verses? Toward a writerly climate literacy in introductory undergraduate biology

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing society today, yet a wide range of misconceptions exist in society about whether or why climate change is happening, what its consequences are, and what can be done to address it. Large introductory biology courses present an opportunity to teach a large number of students—some of whom may never take another course focused on climate, ecology, or the environment—about climate change. However, content knowledge alone may not be enough to prepare students to transform their knowledge into action. To begin understanding how content knowledge interacts with student constructions of climate change solutions, we administered and quantitatively analyzed a survey that examined student views of climate change and how they shifted with instruction during an undergraduate introductory biology course at a large Midwestern university. Almost all participants entered the course agreeing that climate change is occurring, and their certainty about the science of climate change increased after instruction. After taking the course, more participants described climate change as having more immediate impacts, reporting that climate change is already harming people and that climate change will harm them personally. However, both at the beginning and end of the course, participants tended to think that humans would either be unable or unwilling to reduce climate change. They were also more worried about climate change at the end of the course than they were before. Increased concern might result from students becoming more certain of the science and severity of climate change, while remaining pessimistic that humans will effectively act on climate change. This pattern suggests instructors have opportunities to modify curricula in ways that leave students with a greater sense of empowerment and efficacy; we suggest questions that instructors can ask themselves in order to modify their courses with this goal in mind.     

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population''s evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population''s evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population''s evolvability under rapid environmental change.