Estimating Emissions from Electricity Generation Using Electricity Dispatch Models: The Importance of System Operating Constraints

This article develops a modeling approach for estimating emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) from nuclear, coal, natural gas, and hydropower generators in reaction to short‐term changes to electricity demand. The modeling approach accounts for a set of operating constraints (OCs), including scheduled maintenance, forced outage, spinning reserves, fuel switching, seasonal output capacities, and seasonal hydro resource availability. It is found that these OCs are important to achieve reasonable estimates of electricity production by fuel type as well as associated emissions. This conclusion follows from an analysis of electric power generation by networks of power plants in Texas and New York in 2004 and 2005. The inputs to the model with operating constraints (OC model) developed in this article include hourly electricity demand, fuel costs, a list of power plants in the network, their basic generation characteristics, and the set of OCs developed in this article. Given these inputs, the OC model estimates the hourly amount of electricity generation by each power plant in the network, which leads to estimates of marginal resource consumption and emissions. Our central result is that historical annual and monthly generation by fuel type and efficiency are well estimated by the OC model and that the exclusion of OCs leads to poor estimates. This work can be combined with emerging work on wind and solar generation to provide a complete picture of contemporary grid dispatch and associated emissions.     

Spatial perspectives enhance modeling of nanomaterial risks

Novel engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly being manufactured and integrated into renewable energy generation and storage technologies. Past research estimated the potential impact of this increased demand on environmental systems, due to both the life cycle impact of ENM production and the potential for their direct release into ecosystems. However, many models treat ENM production and use as spatially implicit, without considering the specific geographic location of potential emissions. By not considering geographical context, ENM accumulation or impact may be underestimated. Here, we introduce an integrated predictive model that forecasts likely ENM manufacturing locations and potential emissions to the environment, with a focus on critical environmental areas and freshwater ecosystems. Spatially explicit ENM concentrations are estimated for four case study ENMs that have promising application in lithium‐ion battery production. Results demonstrate that potential ENM exposure from manufacturing locations within buffer zones of sensitive ecosystems would accumulate to levels associated with measured ecotoxicity risk under high release scenarios, underscoring the importance of adding a spatial and temporal perspective to life cycle toxicity impact assessment. This predictive integrated modeling approach is novel to the nanomaterial literature and can be adapted to other regions and material case studies to proactively inform life cycle tradeoffs and decision‐making.     

Life Cycle Assessment of Diesel and Electric Public Transportation Buses

The Clean Air Act in the United States identifies diesel‐powered motor vehicles, including transit buses, as significant sources of several criteria pollutants that contribute to ground‐level ozone formation or smog. The effects of air pollution in urban areas are often more significant due to congestion and can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular health impacts. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been utilized in the literature to compare conventional gasoline‐powered passenger cars with various types of electric and hybrid‐powered alternatives, however, no similarly detailed studies exist for mass transit buses. LCA results from this study indicate that the use phase, consisting of diesel production/combustion for the conventional bus and electricity generation for the electric bus, dominates most impact categories; however, the effects of battery production are significant for global warming, carcinogens, ozone depletion, and eco‐toxicity. There is a clear connection between the mix of power‐generation technologies and the preference for the diesel or electric bus. With the existing U.S. average grid, there is a strong preference for the conventional diesel bus over the electric bus when considering global warming impacts alone. Policy makers must consider regional variations in the electricity grid prior to recommending the use of battery electric buses to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study found that the electric bus was preferable in only eight states, including Washington and Oregon. Improvements in battery technology reduce the life cycle impacts from the electric bus, but the electricity grid makeup is the dominant variable.     

Economic Feasibility of Recycling Photovoltaic Modules

The market for photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation has boomed over the last decade, and its expansion is expected to continue with the development of new technologies. Taking into consideration the usage of valuable resources and the generation of emissions in the life cycle of photovoltaic technologies dictates proactive planning for a sound PV recycling infrastructure to ensure its sustainability. PV is expected to be a “green” technology, and properly planning for recycling will offer the opportunity to make it a “double‐green” technology—that is, enhancing life cycle environmental quality. In addition, economic feasibility and a sufficient level of value‐added opportunity must be ensured, to stimulate a recycling industry. In this article, we survey mathematical models of the infrastructure of recycling processes of other products and identify the challenges for setting up an efficient one for PV. Then we present an operational model for an actual recycling process of a thin‐film PV technology. We found that for the case examined with our model, some of the scenarios indicate profitable recycling, whereas in other scenarios it is unprofitable. Scenario SC4, which represents the most favorable scenario by considering the lower bounds of all costs and the upper bound of all revenues, produces a monthly profit of $107,000, whereas the least favorable scenario incurs a monthly loss of $151,000. Our intent is to extend the model as a foundation for developing a framework for building a generalized model for current‐PV and future‐PV technologies.     

Adapting Stand‐Alone Renewable Energy Technologies for the Circular Economy through Eco‐Design and Recycling

Renewable energy (RE) technologies are looked upon favorably to provide for future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the installation of these technologies requires large quantities of finite material resources. We apply life cycle assessment to 100 years of electricity generation from three stand‐alone RE technologies—solar photovoltaics, run‐of‐river hydro, and wind—to evaluate environmental burden profiles against baseline electricity generation from fossil fuels. We then devised scenarios to incorporate circular economy (CE) improvements targeting hotspots in systems’ life cycle, specifically (1) improved recycling rates for raw materials and (ii) the application of eco‐design. Hydro presented the lowest environmental burdens per kilowatt‐hour of electricity generation compared with other RE technologies, owing to its higher efficiency and longer life spans for main components. Distinct results were observed in the environmental performance of each system based on the consideration of improved recycling rates and eco‐design. CE measures produced similar modest savings in already low GHG emissions burdens for each technology, while eco‐design specifically had the potential to provide significant savings in abiotic resource depletion. Further research to explore the full potential of CE measures for RE technologies will curtail the resource intensity of RE technologies required to mitigate climate change.     

Life cycle considerations of the flue gas desulphurization system at a lignite-fired power plant in Thailand

Goal, Scope and Background  The Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) system has been installed at the biggest lignite-fired power generation plant in Thailand to reduce the large amount of SO₂ emission. In order to understand the costs and benefits, both in ecological and economic terms, the lignite-fired plant was studied both before and after the installation of the FGD system. The focus of this study is to consider not only the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) outcome but also the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) factors. The results can provide valuable information when selecting appropriate technologies to minimize the negative impact that lignite-fired power plants have on the environment. Methods  The Life Cycle Assessment - Numerical Eco-load Total Standardization (LCA-NETS) system was used to evaluate the impact on the environment of both the lignite-fired plant and the FGD system. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) was used to provide a comparison between alternative before and after installation of FGD. LCC, a powerful analytical tool, examines the total cost, in net present value terms, of a FGD system over its entire service lifetime. Results and Discussion  The results of the study are shown in the eco-load values over the entire life cycle of the lignite-fired plant. Comparative models of the power plant, before and after the installation of the FGD system, are evaluated using the LCA-NETS system. The results indicate that the installation of the FGD system can reduce the acidification problem associated with lignite-fired plants by approximately 97%. The LCC estimation shows the major costs of the FGD system: capital investment, operating and maintenance, and miscellaneous costs. The LCC provides the decision-making information when considering the cost of the FGD system in terms of protecting the environment. Conclusion and Outlook  LCA is an important decision-making tool for environmental policies, especially with regard to the selection of pollution control equipment for lignite-fired plants. Green coal technologies and strategies to reduce the negative impact on the environment are essential to produce more environmentally-friendly power plants with a sustainable future.     

Technoecological analysis of energy carriers for long‐haul transportation

Long‐haul transportation demand is predicted to increase in the future, resulting in higher carbon dioxide emissions. Different drivetrain technologies, such as hybrid or battery electric vehicles, electrified roads, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen, might offer solutions to this problem. To assess their ecological and economic impact, these concepts were simulated including a weight and cost model to estimate the total cost of ownership. An evolutionary algorithm optimizes each vehicle to find a concept specific optimal solution. A model calculates the minimum investment in infrastructure required to meet the energy demand for each concept. A well‐to‐wheel analysis takes into account upstream and on‐road carbon dioxide emissions, to compare fully electric vehicles with conventional combustion engines. Investment in new infrastructure is the biggest drawback of electrified road concepts, although they offer low CO₂ emissions. The diesel hybrid is the best compromise between carbon reduction and costs.     

Challenges and opportunities for hydrogen production from microalgae

The global population is predicted to increase from ~7.3 billion to over 9 billion people by 2050. Together with rising economic growth, this is forecast to result in a 50% increase in fuel demand, which will have to be met while reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 50–80% to maintain social, political, energy and climate security. This tension between rising fuel demand and the requirement for rapid global decarbonization highlights the need to fast‐track the coordinated development and deployment of efficient cost‐effective renewable technologies for the production of CO₂ neutral energy. Currently, only 20% of global energy is provided as electricity, while 80% is provided as fuel. Hydrogen (H₂) is the most advanced CO₂‐free fuel and provides a ‘common’ energy currency as it can be produced via a range of renewable technologies, including photovoltaic (PV), wind, wave and biological systems such as microalgae, to power the next generation of H₂ fuel cells. Microalgae production systems for carbon‐based fuel (oil and ethanol) are now at the demonstration scale. This review focuses on evaluating the potential of microalgal technologies for the commercial production of solar‐driven H₂ from water. It summarizes key global technology drivers, the potential and theoretical limits of microalgal H₂ production systems, emerging strategies to engineer next‐generation systems and how these fit into an evolving H₂ economy.     

A Multi-Paradigm Modeling Framework to Simulate Dynamic Reciprocity in a Bioreactor

Despite numerous technology advances, bioreactors are still mostly utilized as functional black-boxes where trial and error eventually leads to the desirable cellular outcome. Investigators have applied various computational approaches to understand the impact the internal dynamics of such devices has on overall cell growth, but such models cannot provide a comprehensive perspective regarding the system dynamics, due to limitations inherent to the underlying approaches. In this study, a novel multi-paradigm modeling platform capable of simulating the dynamic bidirectional relationship between cells and their microenvironment is presented. Designing the modeling platform entailed combining and coupling fully an agent-based modeling platform with a transport phenomena computational modeling framework. To demonstrate capability, the platform was used to study the impact of bioreactor parameters on the overall cell population behavior and vice versa. In order to achieve this, virtual bioreactors were constructed and seeded. The virtual cells, guided by a set of rules involving the simulated mass transport inside the bioreactor, as well as cell-related probabilistic parameters, were capable of displaying an array of behaviors such as proliferation, migration, chemotaxis and apoptosis. In this way the platform was shown to capture not only the impact of bioreactor transport processes on cellular behavior but also the influence that cellular activity wields on that very same local mass transport, thereby influencing overall cell growth. The platform was validated by simulating cellular chemotaxis in a virtual direct visualization chamber and comparing the simulation with its experimental analogue. The results presented in this paper are in agreement with published models of similar flavor. The modeling platform can be used as a concept selection tool to optimize bioreactor design specifications.     

Experimental study of the plasma effect on the generation of microwave radiation in systems with a virtual cathode

Results are presented from experimental studies of the plasma effect on the generation of microwave radiation in systems with a virtual cathode. Using a triode with a virtual cathode as an example, it is shown that the cathode and anode plasmas reduce the generation efficiency; in particular, the power of the generated microwave radiation decreases and the radiation frequency and the microwave pulse duration change appreciably. It is demonstrated that, at high microwave powers, the power radiated into free space can be reduced by the plasma generated at the surface of the output window. This plasma appears due to discharges developing on the window surface under the combined action of bremsstrahlung, UV radiation, electrons and ions arriving from the beam formation zone, and the microwave electric field.     

Risk Assessment as a Decision-Making Tool for Treatment of Emissions at a New Aluminum Smelter in Iceland: 1. Background and Introduction

Protection of human health and ecosystems is gaining importance in corporate decision- making regarding industrial development. During the design phase for an aluminum smelter in East Iceland, it became necessary to determine whether a wet scrubber system should be installed to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions. Predictive risk assessment was used to determine whether there would be a consequential difference in the level of risk to human and ecological receptors from constituents in air emissions from the aluminum smelter, either with or without wet scrubbers. Benchmark exposure concentrations were established for avian, mammalian, and plant receptors and were compared to air modeling predictions to develop risk estimates. Benchmark concentrations were derived using plant uptake models for fluoride and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and food-web modeling for birds and mammals. Exposure models were developed for all receptors, and population-level effects were modeled for plant, bird, and mammal receptors. Results indicated that exposures under both scenarios are lower than risk thresholds, and overall risk was lower for a smelter without wet scrubbers. Thus, although mass loading of sulfur dioxide (and other constituents) would be reduced using wet scrubbers, the corresponding risk to ecological receptors would actually be higher because of higher exposure-point concentrations in air.     

Empirical Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions of Plug‐In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine electric and conventional propulsion. Official fuel consumption values of PHEVs are based on standardized driving cycles, which show a growing discrepancy with real‐world fuel consumption. However, no comprehensive empirical results on PHEV fuel consumption are available, and the discrepancy between driving cycle and empirical fuel consumption has been conjectured to be large for PHEV. Here, we analyze real‐world fuel consumption data from 2,005 individual PHEVs of five PHEV models and observe large variations in individual fuel consumption with deviation from test‐cycle values in the range of 2% to 120% for PHEV model averages. Deviations are larger for short‐ranged PHEVs. Among others, range and vehicle power are influencing factors for PHEV model fuel consumption with average direct carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions decreasing by 2% to 3% per additional kilometer (km) of electric range. Additional simulations show that PHEVs recharged from renewable electricity can noteworthily reduce well‐to‐wheel CO₂ emissions of passenger cars, but electric ranges should not exceed 200 to 300 km since battery production is CO₂‐intense. Our findings indicate that regulations should (1) be based on real‐world fuel consumption measurements for PHEV, (2) take into account charging behavior and annual mileages, and (3) incentivize long‐ranged PHEV.     

Methane emissions from wetlands: biogeochemical,microbial, and modeling perspectives from local to global scales

Understanding the dynamics of methane (CH₄) emissions is of paramount importance because CH₄ has 25 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and is currently the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Wetlands are the single largest natural CH₄ source with median emissions from published studies of 164 Tg yr^?1, which is about a third of total global emissions. We provide a perspective on important new frontiers in obtaining a better understanding of CH₄ dynamics in natural systems, with a focus on wetlands. One of the most exciting recent developments in this field is the attempt to integrate the different methodologies and spatial scales of biogeochemistry, molecular microbiology, and modeling, and thus this is a major focus of this review. Our specific objectives are to provide an up‐to‐date synthesis of estimates of global CH₄ emissions from wetlands and other freshwater aquatic ecosystems, briefly summarize major biogeophysical controls over CH₄ emissions from wetlands, suggest new frontiers in CH₄ biogeochemistry, examine relationships between methanogen community structure and CH₄ dynamics in situ, and to review the current generation of CH₄ models. We highlight throughout some of the most pressing issues concerning global change and feedbacks on CH₄ emissions from natural ecosystems. Major uncertainties in estimating current and future CH₄ emissions from natural ecosystems include the following: (i) A number of important controls over CH₄ production, consumption, and transport have not been, or are inadequately, incorporated into existing CH₄ biogeochemistry models. (ii) Significant errors in regional and global emission estimates are derived from large spatial‐scale extrapolations from highly heterogeneous and often poorly mapped wetland complexes. (iii) The limited number of observations of CH₄ fluxes and their associated environmental variables loosely constrains the parameterization of process‐based biogeochemistry models.     

Environmental assessment of German electricity generation from coal-fired power plants with amine-based carbon capture

Background, aim, and scope  

One of the most important sources of global carbon dioxide emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. Power plants contribute more than 40% of the worldwide anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Therefore, the increased requirements for climate protection are a great challenge for the power producers. In this context a significant increase in power plant efficiency will contribute to reduce specific CO₂ emissions. Additionally, CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is receiving considerable attention as a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation option. CCS allows continued use of fossil fuels with no or little CO₂ emissions given to the atmosphere. This could approve a moderate transition to a low-carbon energy generation over the next decades. Currently, R&D activities in the field of CCS are mainly concentrated on the development of capture techniques, the geological assessment of CO₂ storage reservoirs, and on economic aspects. Although first studies on material and energy flows caused by CCS are available, a broader environmental analysis is necessary to show the overall environmental impacts of CCS. The objectives in this paper are coal-based power plants with and without CO₂ capture via mono-ethanolamine (MEA) and the comparison of their environmental effects based on life cycle assessment methodology (LCA).     

Optimal Locations for Methanol and CHP Production in Eastern Finland

Finland considers energy production from woody biomass as an efficient energy planning strategy to increase the domestic renewable energy production in order to substitute fossil fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, a number of developmental activities are implemented in the country, and one of them is the installation of second generation liquid biofuel demonstration plants. In this study, two gasification-based biomass conversion technologies, methanol and combined heat and power (CHP) production, are assessed for commercialization. Spatial information on forest resources, sawmill residues, existing biomass-based industries, energy demand regions, possible plant locations, and a transport network of Eastern Finland is fed into a geographically explicit Mixed Integer Programming model to minimize the costs of the entire supply chain which includes the biomass supply, biomass and biofuel transportation, biomass conversion, energy distribution, and emissions. The model generates a solution by determining the optimal number, locations, and technology mix of bioenergy production plants. Scenarios were created with a focus on biomass and energy demand, plant characteristics, and cost variations. The model results state that the biomass supply and high energy demand are found to have a profound influence on the potential bioenergy production plant locations. The results show that methanol can be produced in Eastern Finland under current market conditions at an average cost of 0.22??/l with heat sales (0.34??/l without heat sales). The introduction of energy policy tools, like cost for carbon, showed a significant influence on the choice of technology and CO₂ emission reductions. The results revealed that the methanol technology was preferred over the CHP technology at higher carbon dioxide cost (>145??/t_CO2). The results indicate that two methanol plants (360?MW_biomass) are needed to be built to meet the transport fuel demand of Eastern Finland.     

Assessing and managing methylmercury risks associated with power plant mercury emissions in the United States

Until the Clean Air Mercury Rule was signed in March 2005, coal-fired electric utilities were the only remaining, unregulated major source of industrial mercury emissions in the United States. Proponents of coal-burning power plants assert that methylmercury is not a hazard at the current environmental levels, that current technologies for limiting emissions are unreliable, and that reducing mercury emissions from power plants in the United States will have little impact on environmental levels. Opponents of coal-burning plants assert that current methylmercury exposures from fish are damaging to the developing nervous system of infants, children, and the fetus; that current technology can significantly limit emissions; and that reducing emissions will reduce exposure and risk. One concern is that local mercury emissions from power plants may contribute to higher local exposure levels, or "hot spots." The impact of the Mercury Rule on potential hot spots is uncertain due to the highly site-specific nature of the relationship between plant emissions and local fish methylmercury levels. The impact on the primary source of exposure in the United States, ocean fish, is likely to be negligible due to the contribution of natural sources and industrial sources outside the United States. Another debate centers on the toxic potency of methylmercury, with the scientific basis of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) recommended exposure limit questioned by some and defended by others. It is likely that the EPA's exposure limit may be appropriate for combined exposure to methylmercury and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), but may be lower than the available data suggest is necessary to protect children from methylmercury alone. Mercury emissions from power plants are a global problem. Without a global approach to developing and implementing clean coal technologies, limiting US power plant emissions alone will have little impact.     

Hybrid Input‐Output Life Cycle Assessment of First‐ and Second‐Generation Ethanol Production Technologies in Brazil

A hybrid approach combining life cycle assessment and input‐output analysis was used to demonstrate the economic and environmental benefits of current and future improvements in agricultural and industrial technologies for ethanol production in Brazilian biorefineries. In this article, three main scenarios were evaluated: first‐generation ethanol production with the average current technology; the improved current technology; and the integration of improved first‐ and second‐generation ethanol production. For the improved first‐generation scenario, a US$1 million increase in ethanol demand can give rise to US$2.5 million of total economic activity in the Brazilian economy when direct and indirect purchases of inputs are considered. This value is slightly higher than the economic activity (US$1.8 million) for an energy equivalent amount of gasoline. The integration of first‐ and second‐generation technologies significantly reduces the total greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol production: 14.6 versus 86.4 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (g CO₂‐eq/MJ) for gasoline. Moreover, emissions of ethanol can be negative (–10.5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ) when the system boundary is expanded to account for surplus bioelectricity by displacement of natural gas thermal electricity generation considering electricity produced in first‐generation optimized biorefineries.     

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.     

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions.This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.