Quantifying Missing Heritability at Known GWAS Loci

Recent work has shown that much of the missing heritability of complex traits can be resolved by estimates of heritability explained by all genotyped SNPs. However, it is currently unknown how much heritability is missing due to poor tagging or additional causal variants at known GWAS loci. Here, we use variance components to quantify the heritability explained by all SNPs at known GWAS loci in nine diseases from WTCCC1 and WTCCC2. After accounting for expectation, we observed all SNPs at known GWAS loci to explain more heritability than GWAS-associated SNPs on average (). For some diseases, this increase was individually significant: for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) () and for Crohn''s Disease (CD) (); all analyses of autoimmune diseases excluded the well-studied MHC region. Additionally, we found that GWAS loci from other related traits also explained significant heritability. The union of all autoimmune disease loci explained more MS heritability than known MS SNPs () and more CD heritability than known CD SNPs (), with an analogous increase for all autoimmune diseases analyzed. We also observed significant increases in an analysis of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) samples typed on ImmunoChip, with more heritability from all SNPs at GWAS loci () and more heritability from all autoimmune disease loci () compared to known RA SNPs (including those identified in this cohort). Our methods adjust for LD between SNPs, which can bias standard estimates of heritability from SNPs even if all causal variants are typed. By comparing adjusted estimates, we hypothesize that the genome-wide distribution of causal variants is enriched for low-frequency alleles, but that causal variants at known GWAS loci are skewed towards common alleles. These findings have important ramifications for fine-mapping study design and our understanding of complex disease architecture.     

Marker-Based Estimation of Heritability in Immortal Populations

Heritability is a central parameter in quantitative genetics, from both an evolutionary and a breeding perspective. For plant traits heritability is traditionally estimated by comparing within- and between-genotype variability. This approach estimates broad-sense heritability and does not account for different genetic relatedness. With the availability of high-density markers there is growing interest in marker-based estimates of narrow-sense heritability, using mixed models in which genetic relatedness is estimated from genetic markers. Such estimates have received much attention in human genetics but are rarely reported for plant traits. A major obstacle is that current methodology and software assume a single phenotypic value per genotype, hence requiring genotypic means. An alternative that we propose here is to use mixed models at the individual plant or plot level. Using statistical arguments, simulations, and real data we investigate the feasibility of both approaches and how these affect genomic prediction with the best linear unbiased predictor and genome-wide association studies. Heritability estimates obtained from genotypic means had very large standard errors and were sometimes biologically unrealistic. Mixed models at the individual plant or plot level produced more realistic estimates, and for simulated traits standard errors were up to 13 times smaller. Genomic prediction was also improved by using these mixed models, with up to a 49% increase in accuracy. For genome-wide association studies on simulated traits, the use of individual plant data gave almost no increase in power. The new methodology is applicable to any complex trait where multiple replicates of individual genotypes can be scored. This includes important agronomic crops, as well as bacteria and fungi.     

GCTA: a tool for genome-wide complex trait analysis

For most human complex diseases and traits, SNPs identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) explain only a small fraction of the heritability. Here we report a user-friendly software tool called genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA), which was developed based on a method we recently developed to address the "missing heritability" problem. GCTA estimates the variance explained by all the SNPs on a chromosome or on the whole genome for a complex trait rather than testing the association of any particular SNP to the trait. We introduce GCTA's five main functions: data management, estimation of the genetic relationships from SNPs, mixed linear model analysis of variance explained by the SNPs, estimation of the linkage disequilibrium structure, and GWAS simulation. We focus on the function of estimating the variance explained by all the SNPs on the X chromosome and testing the hypotheses of dosage compensation. The GCTA software is a versatile tool to estimate and partition complex trait variation with large GWAS data sets.     

Marker-based quantitative genetics in the wild?: the heritability and genetic correlation of chemical defenses in eucalyptus

Marker-based methods for estimating heritability and genetic correlation in the wild have attracted interest because traditional methods may be impractical or introduce bias via G x E effects, mating system variation, and sampling effects. However, they have not been widely used, especially in plants. A regression-based approach, which uses a continuous measure of genetic relatedness, promises to be particularly appropriate for use in plants with mixed-mating systems and overlapping generations. Using this method, we found significant narrow-sense heritability of foliar defense chemicals in a natural population of Eucalyptus melliodora. We also demonstrated a genetic basis for the phenotypic correlation underlying an ecological example of conditioned flavor aversion involving different biosynthetic pathways. Our results revealed that heritability estimates depend on the spatial scale of the analysis in a way that offers insight into the distribution of genetic and environmental variance. This study is the first to successfully use a marker-based method to measure quantitative genetic parameters in a tree. We suggest that this method will prove to be a useful tool in other studies and offer some recommendations for future applications of the method.     

Exploring pleiotropy using principal components

A standard multivariate principal components (PCs) method was utilized to identify clusters of variables that may be controlled by a common gene or genes (pleiotropy). Heritability estimates were obtained and linkage analyses performed on six individual traits (total cholesterol (Chol), high and low density lipoproteins, triglycerides (TG), body mass index (BMI), and systolic blood pressure (SBP)) and on each PC to compare our ability to identify major gene effects. Using the simulated data from Genetic Analysis Workshop 13 (Cohort 1 and 2 data for year 11), the quantitative traits were first adjusted for age, sex, and smoking (cigarettes per day). Adjusted variables were standardized and PCs calculated followed by orthogonal transformation (varimax rotation). Rotated PCs were then subjected to heritability and quantitative multipoint linkage analysis. The first three PCs explained 73% of the total phenotypic variance. Heritability estimates were above 0.60 for all three PCs. We performed linkage analyses on the PCs as well as the individual traits. The majority of pleiotropic and trait-specific genes were not identified. Standard PCs analysis methods did not facilitate the identification of pleiotropic genes affecting the six traits examined in the simulated data set. In addition, genes contributing 20% of the variance in traits with over 0.60 heritability estimates could not be identified in this simulated data set using traditional quantitative trait linkage analyses. Lack of identification of pleiotropic and trait-specific genes in some cases may reflect their low contribution to the traits/PCs examined or more importantly, characteristics of the sample group analyzed, and not simply a failure of the PC approach itself.     

Methodological Considerations in Estimation of Phenotype Heritability Using Genome-Wide SNP Data,Illustrated by an Analysis of the Heritability of Height in a Large Sample of African Ancestry Adults

Height has an extremely polygenic pattern of inheritance. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed hundreds of common variants that are associated with human height at genome-wide levels of significance. However, only a small fraction of phenotypic variation can be explained by the aggregate of these common variants. In a large study of African-American men and women (n = 14,419), we genotyped and analyzed 966,578 autosomal SNPs across the entire genome using a linear mixed model variance components approach implemented in the program GCTA (Yang et al Nat Genet 2010), and estimated an additive heritability of 44.7% (se: 3.7%) for this phenotype in a sample of evidently unrelated individuals. While this estimated value is similar to that given by Yang et al in their analyses, we remain concerned about two related issues: (1) whether in the complete absence of hidden relatedness, variance components methods have adequate power to estimate heritability when a very large number of SNPs are used in the analysis; and (2) whether estimation of heritability may be biased, in real studies, by low levels of residual hidden relatedness. We addressed the first question in a semi-analytic fashion by directly simulating the distribution of the score statistic for a test of zero heritability with and without low levels of relatedness. The second question was addressed by a very careful comparison of the behavior of estimated heritability for both observed (self-reported) height and simulated phenotypes compared to imputation R² as a function of the number of SNPs used in the analysis. These simulations help to address the important question about whether today''s GWAS SNPs will remain useful for imputing causal variants that are discovered using very large sample sizes in future studies of height, or whether the causal variants themselves will need to be genotyped de novo in order to build a prediction model that ultimately captures a large fraction of the variability of height, and by implication other complex phenotypes. Our overall conclusions are that when study sizes are quite large (5,000 or so) the additive heritability estimate for height is not apparently biased upwards using the linear mixed model; however there is evidence in our simulation that a very large number of causal variants (many thousands) each with very small effect on phenotypic variance will need to be discovered to fill the gap between the heritability explained by known versus unknown causal variants. We conclude that today''s GWAS data will remain useful in the future for causal variant prediction, but that finding the causal variants that need to be predicted may be extremely laborious.     

Estimation of quantitative genetic parameters using marker-inferred relatedness in Japanese flounder: a case study of upward bias

Marker-based methods for estimating heritability have been proposed as an effective means to study quantitative traits in long-lived organisms and natural populations. However, practical examinations to evaluate the usefulness and robustness of a regression method are limited. Using several quantitative traits of Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus, the present study examined the influence of relatedness estimator and population structure on the estimation of heritability and genetic correlation under a regression method with 7 microsatellite loci. Significant heritability and genetic correlation were detected for several quantitative traits in 2 laboratory populations but not in a natural population. In the laboratory populations, upward bias in heritability appeared depending on the relatedness estimators and the populations. Upward bias in heritability increased with decreasing the actual variance of relatedness, suggesting that the estimates of heritability under the regression method tend to be overestimated due to the underestimation of the actual variance of relatedness. Therefore, relationship structure and precise estimation of relatedness are critical for applying this method.     

Simultaneous Discovery,Estimation and Prediction Analysis of Complex Traits Using a Bayesian Mixture Model

Gene discovery, estimation of heritability captured by SNP arrays, inference on genetic architecture and prediction analyses of complex traits are usually performed using different statistical models and methods, leading to inefficiency and loss of power. Here we use a Bayesian mixture model that simultaneously allows variant discovery, estimation of genetic variance explained by all variants and prediction of unobserved phenotypes in new samples. We apply the method to simulated data of quantitative traits and Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) data on disease and show that it provides accurate estimates of SNP-based heritability, produces unbiased estimators of risk in new samples, and that it can estimate genetic architecture by partitioning variation across hundreds to thousands of SNPs. We estimated that, depending on the trait, 2,633 to 9,411 SNPs explain all of the SNP-based heritability in the WTCCC diseases. The majority of those SNPs (>96%) had small effects, confirming a substantial polygenic component to common diseases. The proportion of the SNP-based variance explained by large effects (each SNP explaining 1% of the variance) varied markedly between diseases, ranging from almost zero for bipolar disorder to 72% for type 1 diabetes. Prediction analyses demonstrate that for diseases with major loci, such as type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, Bayesian methods outperform profile scoring or mixed model approaches.     

Relevance of genetic relationship in GWAS and genomic prediction

The objective of this study was to analyze the relevance of relationship information on the identification of low heritability quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and on the genomic prediction of complex traits in human, animal and cross-pollinating populations. The simulation-based data sets included 50 samples of 1000 individuals of seven populations derived from a common population with linkage disequilibrium. The populations had non-inbred and inbred progeny structure (50 to 200) with varying number of members (5 to 20). The individuals were genotyped for 10,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and phenotyped for a quantitative trait controlled by 10 QTLs and 90 minor genes showing dominance. The SNP density was 0.1 cM and the narrow sense heritability was 25%. The QTL heritabilities ranged from 1.1 to 2.9%. We applied mixed model approaches for both GWAS and genomic prediction using pedigree-based and genomic relationship matrices. For GWAS, the observed false discovery rate was kept below the significance level of 5%, the power of detection for the low heritability QTLs ranged from 14 to 50%, and the average bias between significant SNPs and a QTL ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.23 cM. The QTL detection power was consistently higher using genomic relationship matrix. Regardless of population and training set size, genomic prediction provided higher prediction accuracy of complex trait when compared to pedigree-based prediction. The accuracy of genomic prediction when there is relatedness between individuals in the training set and the reference population is much higher than the value for unrelated individuals.     

Consistency between marker- and genealogy-based heritability estimates in an experimental stand of Prosopis alba (Leguminosae)

Prosopis represents a valuable forest resource in arid and semiarid regions. Management of promising species requires information about genetic parameters, mainly the heritability (h(2)) of quantitative profitable traits. This parameter is traditionally estimated from progeny tests or half-sib analysis conducted in experimental stands. Such an approach estimates h(2) from the ratio of between-family/total phenotypic variance. These analyses are difficult to apply to natural populations of species with a long life cycle, overlapping generations, and a mixed mating system, without genealogical information. A promising alternative is the use of molecular marker information to infer relatedness between individuals and to estimate h(2) from the regression of phenotypic similarity on inferred relatedness. In the current study we compared h(2) of 13 quantitative traits estimated by these two methods in an experimental stand of P. alba, where genealogical information was available. We inferred pairwise relatedness by Ritland's method using six microsatellite loci. Relatedness and heritability estimates from molecular information were highly correlated to the values obtained from genealogical data. Although Ritland's method yields lower h(2) estimates and tends to overestimate genetic correlations between traits, this approach is useful to predict the expected relative gain of different quantitative traits under selection without genealogical information.     

The Nature of Genetic Variation for Complex Traits Revealed by GWAS and Regional Heritability Mapping Analyses

We use computer simulations to investigate the amount of genetic variation for complex traits that can be revealed by single-SNP genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or regional heritability mapping (RHM) analyses based on full genome sequence data or SNP chips. We model a large population subject to mutation, recombination, selection, and drift, assuming a pleiotropic model of mutations sampled from a bivariate distribution of effects of mutations on a quantitative trait and fitness. The pleiotropic model investigated, in contrast to previous models, implies that common mutations of large effect are responsible for most of the genetic variation for quantitative traits, except when the trait is fitness itself. We show that GWAS applied to the full sequence increases the number of QTL detected by as much as 50% compared to the number found with SNP chips but only modestly increases the amount of additive genetic variance explained. Even with full sequence data, the total amount of additive variance explained is generally below 50%. Using RHM on the full sequence data, a slightly larger number of QTL are detected than by GWAS if the same probability threshold is assumed, but these QTL explain a slightly smaller amount of genetic variance. Our results also suggest that most of the missing heritability is due to the inability to detect variants of moderate effect (∼0.03–0.3 phenotypic SDs) segregating at substantial frequencies. Very rare variants, which are more difficult to detect by GWAS, are expected to contribute little genetic variation, so their eventual detection is less relevant for resolving the missing heritability problem.     

Cross-Tissue and Tissue-Specific eQTLs: Partitioning the Heritability of a Complex Trait

Top signals from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are enriched with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) identified in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue. We therefore hypothesized that such eQTLs might account for a disproportionate share of the heritability estimated from all SNPs interrogated through GWASs. To test this hypothesis, we applied linear mixed models to the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) T2D data set and to data sets representing Mexican Americans from Starr County, TX, and Mexicans from Mexico City. We estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance attributable to the additive effect of all variants interrogated in these GWASs, as well as a much smaller set of variants identified as eQTLs in human adipose tissue, skeletal muscle, and lymphoblastoid cell lines. The narrow-sense heritability explained by all interrogated SNPs in each of these data sets was substantially greater than the heritability accounted for by genome-wide-significant SNPs (∼10%); GWAS SNPs explained over 50% of phenotypic variance in the WTCCC, Starr County, and Mexico City data sets. The estimate of heritability attributable to cross-tissue eQTLs was greater in the WTCCC data set and among lean Hispanics, whereas adipose eQTLs significantly explained heritability among Hispanics with a body mass index ≥ 30. These results support an important role for regulatory variants in the genetic component of T2D susceptibility, particularly for eQTLs that elicit effects across insulin-responsive peripheral tissues.     

Genetic parameters in a rubber tree population: heritabilities,genotype-by-environment interactions and multi-trait correlations

Rubber tree breeding programs are mainly driven by selection of individuals with high yield and quality of rubber. Data from 51 open-pollinated progenies tested on six sites in Brazil were analyzed over several traits to estimate the following: genetic parameters such as narrow-sense heritability and additive genetic variance in single- and multi-site analyses, type B correlations to determine the relevance of genotype-by-environment interactions and its effects on alternative selection strategies, additive genetic repeatability correlation for rubber yield based on three consecutive yearly measurements, and type A correlations to evaluate trait-to-trait genetic associations for all measured traits. Average rubber yield (RYm) showed an estimated narrow-sense heritability of 0.31, with an estimated type B correlation of 0.84, indicating low levels of genotype-by-environment interaction. The trait survival and number of latex vessel rings (RG) showed larger genotype-by-environment interaction and the lowest heritabilites. High to moderate type B correlation was found for most traits, with a value of 0.85 between diameter (or girth) and RYm; therefore, it is possible to achieve interesting rubber yield genetic gains (over 3 years of measurements) from indirect selection based on diameter at age 2.     

Heritability in the genome-wide association era

Heritability, the fraction of phenotypic variation explained by genetic variation, has been estimated for many phenotypes in a range of populations, organisms, and time points. The recent development of efficient genotyping and sequencing technology has led researchers to attempt to identify the genetic variants responsible for the genetic component of phenotype directly via GWAS. The gap between the phenotypic variance explained by GWAS results and those estimated from classical heritability methods has been termed the "missing heritability problem". In this work, we examine modern methods for estimating heritability, which use the genotype and sequence data directly. We discuss them in the context of classical heritability methods, the missing heritability problem, and describe their implications for understanding the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes.     

Quantitative genetics and fitness effects of basal metabolism

The physiological requirements of reproduction are predicted to generate a link between energy, physiology and life history traits. Simultaneously, low maintenance costs, measured by energy consumption, are expected to be advantageous. Here we investigated fitness relatedness of traits by estimating genetic correlations between, and inbreeding depression for, body mass, basal metabolic rate (BMR) and other life history characters in a wild rodent, Myodes glareolus. The narrow-sense heritability of absolute and mass corrected BMRs were high for females (h² = 0.48 and 0.42) but low and non-significant for males (0.32 and 0.09). A significant positive genetic correlation between BMR and litter size suggests that traits connected to female fecundity might favour higher metabolism (i.e. support increased intake hypothesis). However, the estimates of inbreeding depression indicate that, while higher values of body mass and female litter size could be positively associated with overall fitness, the association between BMR and overall fitness in bank voles would be negative (i.e. support compensation hypothesis). This result suggests that the advantages of larger litters and larger body mass might be evolutionary constrained by high costs of maintenance of those traits, as reflected by the level of basal metabolism.     

Maximum-likelihood variance components analysis of heritabilities of cranial nonmetric traits

Nonmetric traits of the cranium are often used to support hypotheses of the history and divergence of human populations. These studies rely on the assumption that nonmetric traits are heritable, yet few skeletal series exist with associated pedigree information that allow for the calculation of additive genetic variance, or heritability. In addition, traits for which heritabilities have been published represent dichotomous present/absent forms instead of the range of expression that can be observed for many nonmetric characters. In the present study I use a maximum-likelihood variance components analysis to calculate univariate narrow-sense heritability estimates on the skeletal series from Hallstatt, Austria, for 9 sutural bones, 27 multilevel traits, and dichotomized present/absent forms for 19 of these multilevel characters. Most of the trait heritabilities do not differ significantly from a model of h2 = 0, and they have large standard errors. In a heuristic comparison of multilevel versus dichotomous trait forms, most of the nonmetric characters showed no differences in heritability between the two methods used for parsing the phenotypic variation, although where differences were noted, the presence-absence version had higher heritabilities. These results have implications not only for the use of particular nonmetric traits in population studies but also for the practice of character dichotomization in data collection.     

Fine mapping of five loci associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol detects variants that double the explained heritability

Complex trait genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide an efficient strategy for evaluating large numbers of common variants in large numbers of individuals and for identifying trait-associated variants. Nevertheless, GWAS often leave much of the trait heritability unexplained. We hypothesized that some of this unexplained heritability might be due to common and rare variants that reside in GWAS identified loci but lack appropriate proxies in modern genotyping arrays. To assess this hypothesis, we re-examined 7 genes (APOE, APOC1, APOC2, SORT1, LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9) in 5 loci associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in multiple GWAS. For each gene, we first catalogued genetic variation by re-sequencing 256 Sardinian individuals with extreme LDL-C values. Next, we genotyped variants identified by us and by the 1000 Genomes Project (totaling 3,277 SNPs) in 5,524 volunteers. We found that in one locus (PCSK9) the GWAS signal could be explained by a previously described low-frequency variant and that in three loci (PCSK9, APOE, and LDLR) there were additional variants independently associated with LDL-C, including a novel and rare LDLR variant that seems specific to Sardinians. Overall, this more detailed assessment of SNP variation in these loci increased estimates of the heritability of LDL-C accounted for by these genes from 3.1% to 6.5%. All association signals and the heritability estimates were successfully confirmed in a sample of ～10,000 Finnish and Norwegian individuals. Our results thus suggest that focusing on variants accessible via GWAS can lead to clear underestimates of the trait heritability explained by a set of loci. Further, our results suggest that, as prelude to large-scale sequencing efforts, targeted re-sequencing efforts paired with large-scale genotyping will increase estimates of complex trait heritability explained by known loci.     

Detecting Identity by Descent and Homozygosity Mapping in Whole-Exome Sequencing Data

The detection of genetic segments of Identical by Descent (IBD) in Genome-Wide Association Studies has proven successful in pinpointing genetic relatedness between reportedly unrelated individuals and leveraging such regions to shortlist candidate genes. These techniques depend on high-density genotyping arrays and their effectiveness in diverse sequence data is largely unknown. Due to decreasing costs and increasing effectiveness of high throughput techniques for whole-exome sequencing, an influx of exome sequencing data has become available. Studies using exomes and IBD-detection methods within known pedigrees have shown that IBD can be useful in finding hidden genetic candidates where known relatives are available. We set out to examine the viability of using IBD-detection in whole exome sequencing data in population-wide studies. In doing so, we extend GERMLINE, a method to detect IBD from exome sequencing data by finding small slices of matching alleles between pairs of individuals and extending them into full IBD segments. This algorithm allows for efficient population-wide detection in dense data. We apply this algorithm to a cohort of Crohn''s Disease cases where whole-exome and GWAS array data is available. We confirm that GWAS-based detected segments are highly accurate and predictive of underlying shared variation. Where segments inferred from GWAS are expected to be of high accuracy, we compare exome-based detection accuracy of multiple detection strategies. We find detection accuracy to be prohibitively low in all assessments, both in terms of segment sensitivity and specificity. Even after isolating relatively long segments beyond 10cM, exome-based detection continued to offer poor specificity/sensitivity tradeoffs. We hypothesize that the variable coverage and platform biases of exome capture account for this decreased accuracy and look toward whole genome sequencing data as a higher quality source for detecting population-wide IBD.     

Marker-assisted estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in rainbow trout,Oncorhynchus mykiss

Estimation of quantitative genetic parameters conventionally requires known pedigree structure. However, several methods have recently been developed to circumvent this requirement by inferring relationship structure from molecular marker data. Here, two such marker-assisted methodologies were used and compared in an aquaculture population of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Firstly a regression-based model employing estimates of pairwise relatedness was applied, and secondly a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure was employed to reconstruct full-sibships and hence an explicit pedigree. While both methods were effective in detecting significant components of genetic variance and covariance for size and spawning time traits, the regression model resulted in estimates that were quantitatively unreliable, having both significant bias and low precision. This result can be largely attributed to poor performance of the pairwise relatedness estimator. In contrast, genetic parameters estimated from the reconstructed pedigree showed close agreement with ideal values obtained from the true pedigree. Although not significantly biased, parameters based on the reconstructed pedigree were underestimated relative to ideal values. This was due to the complex structure of the true pedigree in which high numbers of half-sibling relationships resulted in inaccurate partitioning of full-sibships, and additional unrecognized relatedness between families.     

Integrated analysis of direct and proxy genome wide association studies highlights polygenicity of Alzheimer’s disease outside of the APOE region

Recent meta-analyses combining direct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with those of family history (GWAX) have indicated very low SNP heritability of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). These low estimates may call into question the prospects of continued progress in genetic discovery for AD within the spectrum of common variants. We highlight dramatic downward biases in previous methods, and we validate a novel method for the estimation of SNP heritability via integration of GWAS and GWAX summary data. We apply our method to investigate the genetic architecture of AD using GWAX from UK Biobank and direct case-control GWAS from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). We estimate the liability scale common variant SNP heritability of Clinical AD outside of APOE region at ~7–11%, and we project the corresponding estimate for AD pathology to be up to approximately 23%. We estimate that nearly 90% of common variant SNP heritability of Clinical AD exists outside the APOE region. Rare variants not tagged in standard GWAS may account for additional variance. Our results indicate that, while GWAX for AD in UK Biobank may result in greater attenuation of genetic effects beyond that conventionally assumed, it does not introduce appreciable contamination of signal by genetically distinct traits relative to direct case-control GWAS in IGAP. Genetic risk for AD represents a strong effect of APOE superimposed upon a highly polygenic background.