An Ecological Risk Assessment Methodology for Screening Discharge Alternatives of Produced Water

Previous studies on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of produced water relied on the use of deterministic hydrodynamic models. The assessment was usually carried out in the North Sea context using a model such as the Chemical Hazard Assessment and Risk Management (CHARM), or in the North American context based on the output of a hydrodynamic model such as the Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System (CORMIX). In both these cases, however, probabilistic analysis has not been employed, particularly, to account for uncertainty associated with hydrodynamic models in the ERA study. In fact, it is the hydrodynamic model that has a direct linkage to the selection of the discharge alternatives. Apart from the monitoring purposes, in this article, it is suggested that criteria for evaluating discharge alternatives of produced water in a marine environment might incorporate an awareness of ecological risks by incorporating engineering and toxicological aspects. An ERA methodology consisting of problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization is discussed in light of evaluating the discharge alternatives. A probabilistic analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS)–based Monte Carlo (MC) simulations was employed. A depiction of associated risks for an area comparable to a regulatory mixing zone of typical effluent discharges is presented.     

外来湿地植物再力花适生性分析

通过修改过的澳大利亚杂草评估系统(Australia Weed Risk Assessment System),气候匹配模型(MaxEnt)以及越冬实验对外来湿地植物再力花(Thalia dealbata)的适生性进行了分析.澳大利亚评估系统的评分为18分,远超过系统本身阈值(6分).MaxEnt分布区预测结果表明,再力花可以在北京—郑州—西安—成都—丽江一线以东生长,江浙一带以及安徽省东南部尤其适合再力花的生长.冷冻实验表明,经过2个月0℃低温处理的再力花虽然在生物量及开花数量上与低温处理时间较短的植株存在显著差异,但是却依然可以完成整个生活史.结果表明,再力花在中国大部分区域都可以生长,可能具有入侵风险.     

Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance and Procedural Documents: An Annotated Compilation and Evaluation of Reference Materials

The scientific approach toward ecological risk assessment (ERA) has advanced greatly during the 1990s. This growth has been accompanied by the development of ERA guidance by USEPA Headquarters, individual USEPA Regions, state environmental agencies, as well as international agencies. This compilation of ERA guidance and procedural documents identifies many of the existing ERA reference materials from the regulatory and/or governmental agency arena. In addition, this compilation provides annotations pertaining to the focus of each reviewed document, and compares/contrasts the approaches presented in the documents. As such, the evaluation provides insight into some of the qualities and levels of detail provided by each document. Examples of documents which are highlighted include recently published USEPA's “Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment;” USEPA's “Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund;” the U.S. Army's “Procedural Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessments;” and Environment Canada's “Ecological Risk Assessments Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.”     

Scientists urge DHS to improve Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

In 2006, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) completed its first Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA), intended to be the foundation for DHS's subsequent biennial risk assessments mandated by Homeland Security Presidential Directive 10 (HSPD-10). At the request of DHS, the National Research Council established the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis to provide an independent, scientific peer review of the BTRA. The Committee found a number of shortcomings in the BTRA, including a failure to consider terrorists as intelligent adversaries in their models, unnecessary complexity in threat and consequence modeling and simulations, and a lack of focus on risk management. The Committee unanimously concluded that an improved BTRA is needed to provide a more credible foundation for risk-informed decision making.     

Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recognized the need to develop a framework for human health risk assessment that puts a perspective on the approaches in practice throughout the Agency. In response, the Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has begun the long-term process of developing a framework for human health risk assessment. The framework will be a communication piece that will lay out the scientific basis, principles, and policy choices underlying past and current risk assessment approaches and will provide recommendations for integrating/harmonizing risk assessment methodologies for all human health endpoints.     

Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the USEPA. The U.S. Government has the right to retain a nonexclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright covering this article. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recognized the need to develop a framework for human health risk assessment that puts a perspective on the approaches in practice throughout the Agency. In response, the USEPA's Risk Assessment Forum has begun the process of developing a framework for human health risk assessment. This paper provides some additional background to the previous review of the framework efforts and notes the Agency's extramural efforts to begin the process of integrating and harmonizing risk assessment approaches for all human health endpoints.     

Risk Assessment and Invasion Characteristics of Alien Plants in and Around the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Two risk assessment protocols were adopted to assess the risks posed by alien plants that naturalized or non-naturalized in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (AGENC). In this study the Risk Assessment for Central Europe method revealed that more than two-thirds of the 19 naturalized and four-fifths of the 17 non-naturalized alien plants presented high or moderate risk, and all 36 alien plants were considered to be rejected for their potential agricultural and environmental risks under the Australian Weed Risk Assessment system. On the characteristics of plant invasions, more attention should be given to disturbed habitats rather than these relative natural or closed ecosystems, and also be prudent and careful of the alien plants that are introduced as useful plants from North or South America and unintentional introduction from Europe. Moreover, annuals needed special attention: three-quarters of the alien plants were annual species, only a few were biennial (8.3%), perennial (11.1%), liana and tree plants (2.8%). Plant invasions are not extremely serious in the AGENC, but there are several alien plants that have naturalized and spread themselves in the region. However, attention should be given in the future to predicting and preventing plant invasions in this fragile region.     

Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species

Robust tools are needed to prioritise the management of invasive non-native species (INNS). Risk assessment is commonly used to prioritise INNS, but fails to take into account the feasibility of management. Risk management provides a structured evaluation of management options, but has received little attention to date. We present a risk management scheme to assess the feasibility of eradicating INNS that can be used, in conjunction with existing risk assessment schemes, to support prioritisation. The Non-Native Risk Management scheme (NNRM) can be applied to any predefined area and any taxa. It uses semi-quantitative response and confidence scores to assess seven key criteria: Effectiveness, Practicality, Cost, Impact, Acceptability, Window of opportunity and Likelihood of re-invasion. Scores are elicited using expert judgement, supported by available evidence, and consensus-building methods. We applied the NNRM to forty-one INNS that threaten Great Britain (GB). Thirty-three experts provided scores, with overall feasibility of eradication assessed as ‘very high’ (8 species), ‘high’ (6), ‘medium’ (8), ‘low’ (10) and ‘very low’ (9). The feasibility of eradicating terrestrial species was higher than aquatic species. Lotic freshwater and marine species scored particularly low. Combining risk management and existing risk assessment scores identified six established species as priorities for eradication. A further six species that are not yet established were identified as priorities for eradication on arrival as part of contingency planning. The NNRM is one of the first INNS risk management schemes that can be used with existing risk assessments to prioritise INNS eradication in any area.     

Uncertainty/Safety Factors in Health Risk Assessment: Opportunities for Improvement

This paper presents the results of deliberations from participants who met on the second day of the Fourth Annual Workshop on the Evaluation of Uncertainty/Safety Factors in Health Risk Assessment. The group reviewed the previous day's presentations and implications for improvement in risk assessment. After much discussion, the group concluded that, in the short term, significant improvements could be made in the pharmacokinetic component of the inter-species uncertainty factor and developed a series of default options for this factor. These defaults consider route of exposure (oral or inhalation), and the form of the active compound (parent, metabolite, or very reactive metabolite). Several assumptions are key to this approach, such as a similar oral or inhalation bioavailability across species. We believe this method represents a useful default approach until more compound-specific information is available.     

Harmonizing the Incorporation of Uncertainty and Variability Into Risk Assessment: An International Approach

International harmonization of risk assessment approaches affords a number of opportunities and advantages. Overall, harmonization will lead to more efficient use of resources, but also will lead to better understanding amongst scientists and regulators worldwide. It is with these goals in mind that in 1994 the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) initiated its Project on the Harmonization of Approaches to the Assessment of Risk from Exposure to Chemicals (Harmonization Project). An ongoing activity under this project addresses uncertainty and variability in risk assessment. The goal of the overall activity is to promote harmonization of risk assessment methodologies for noncancer endpoints. However, given the common links in uncertainty and variability that apply across a range of end-point-specific activities, these links are identified wherever possible. This paper provides an overview of the IPCS Harmonization Project and reviews the activity and future plans related to uncertainty and variability.     

Evidence-based practices for thromboembolism prevention: summary of the ASPS Venous Thromboembolism Task Force Report

In July of 2011, the American Society of Plastic Surgeons Executive Committee approved the Venous Thromboembolism Task Force Report. The report includes a summary of the scientific literature relevant to venous thromboembolism and plastic surgery along with five evidence-based recommendations. The recommendations are divided into two sections: risk stratification and prevention. The risk stratification recommendations are based on the 2005 Caprini Risk Assessment Module, which has been validated in the scientific literature as an effective tool for risk-stratifying plastic and reconstructive surgery patients based on individual risk factors for 60-day venous thromboembolism. The three prophylaxis recommendations are dependent on an individual patient's 2005 Caprini Risk Assessment Module score.     

Simplified fate modelling in respect to ecotoxicological and human toxicological characterisation of emissions of chemical compounds

Purpose  

The impact assessment of chemical compounds in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) requires a vast amount of data on the properties of the chemical compounds being assessed. The purpose of the present study is to explore statistical options for reduction of the data demand associated with characterisation of chemical emissions in LCIA and ERA.     

Animal cloning and the FDA--the risk assessment paradigm under public scrutiny

The evidence gathered thus far--ultimately to be published in the Draft Risk Assessment on Animal Cloning--indicates that there are no unique risks associated with animal cloning.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry And Calculated Frax Risk Scores May Underestimate Osteoporotic Fracture Risk In Vitamin D-Deficient Veterans With Hiv Infection

Objective: We evaluated the utility of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) in assessing fracture risk in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and vitamin D deficiency.Methods: This was a retrospective study of HIV-infected patients with co-existing vitamin D deficiency at the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), and the 10-year fracture risk was calculated by the FRAX algorithm. Two independent radiologists reviewed lateral chest radiographs for the presence of subclinical vertebral fractures.Results: We identified 232 patients with HIV and vitamin D deficiency. Overall, 15.5% of patients met diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis on DEXA, and 58% had low BMD (T-score between -1 and -2.5). The median risk of any major osteoporotic and hip fracture by FRAX score was 1.45 and 0.10%, respectively. Subclinical vertebral fractures were detected in 46.6% of patients. Compared to those without fractures, those with fractures had similar prevalence of osteoporosis (15.3% versus 15.7%; P>.999), low BMD (53.2% versus 59.3%; P = .419), and similar FRAX hip scores (0.10% versus 0.10%; P = .412). While the FRAX major score was lower in the nonfracture group versus fracture group (1.30% versus 1.60%; P = .025), this was not clinically significant.Conclusion: We found a high prevalence of subclinical vertebral fractures among vitamin D–deficient HIV patients; however, DEXA and FRAX failed to predict those with fractures. Our results suggest that traditional screening tools for fragility fractures may not be applicable to this high-risk patient population.Abbreviations:25(OH)D = 25-hydroxyvitamin DBMD = bone mineral densityBMI = body mass indexDEXA = dual-energy X-ray absorptiometryFRAX = Fracture Risk Assessment ToolHIV = human immunodeficiency virusIQR = interquartile rangePTH = parathyroid hormoneVA = Veterans AffairsWHO = World Health Organization     

Synthesis of semantic modelling and risk analysis methodology applied to animal welfare

Decision-making on animal welfare issues requires a synthesis of information. For the assessment of farm animal welfare based on scientific information collected in a database, a methodology called 'semantic modelling' has been developed. To date, however, this methodology has not been generally applied. Recently, a qualitative Risk Assessment approach has been published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) for the first time, concerning the welfare of intensively reared calves. This paper reports on a critical analysis of this Risk Assessment (RA) approach from a semantic-modelling (SM) perspective, emphasizing the importance of several seemingly self-evident principles, including the definition of concepts, application of explicit methodological procedures and specification of how underlying values and scientific information lead to the RA output. In addition, the need to include positive aspects of welfare and overall welfare assessments are emphasized. The analysis shows that the RA approach for animal welfare could benefit from SM methodology to support transparent and science-based decision-making.     

Technical Critique of the Multimedia,Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is developing the Multimedia, Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model to evaluate potential human and ecological risks associated with the disposal of solid wastes designated as hazardous wastes in nonhazardous waste management units. USEPA intends to use the 3MRA model to determine national exit levels that will allow solid wastes that theoretically pose acceptable human and ecological risks to be safely managed in Subtitle D nonhazardous waste management units. We critically evaluated the 3MRA model to determine whether the methodology, interim modules, and input parameters are appropriate and scientifically defensible. Overall, our review of the 3MRA model indicates that it contains many conservative assumptions that may limit the validity of the model results and its use as a national model adequate for making regulatory decisions. Many of the assumptions and data inputs used to model the pathways involved in the transport of chemicals from a waste management unit are flawed. Other specific concerns include the lack of model validation, incompatibility of data between modules, and overestimation of potential human and ecological exposures. Before using the 3MRA model, we recommend that USEPA consider whether the 3MRA model is either an appropriate or accurate tool for evaluating the disposal of hazardous wastes nationwide.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this article: The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World Bjorn Lomborg Weed Risk Assessment R.H. Groves, F. D. Panetta and J. G. Virtue     

Risk analysis: an overview

Risk analysis increasingly is considered as an integral part of the environmental management decision-making process. Risk, defined as the probability of occurrence of a particular adverse effect on human health or the environment, should not be confounded with hazard, defined as a source of potential injury independent of occurrence. Risk analysis has to be followed by risk management. Some opponents of risk analysis make the reproach that the science used in risk analysis is immature and consequently that the entire process in laden with hidden value judgments. Attempts to overcome these critics are increasingly based on the use of robust biologic data the final considered values system being efficacy-based, efficiency-based or equity-based. Globalization has brought with it new problems, and there is an urgent need to improve risk analysts; to increase its public acceptability and to establish consensus regarding solutions to global environmental problems. In this context biologic-based models and biomarkers hold, the greatest promise for improving risk assessment. These considerations are illustrated by a few examples, also pertaining to low-dose extrapolation and to the problem of thresholds for carcinogenesis. Future directions for development are evoked.