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Problem formulation, risk analysis, and risk characterization are, respectively, the design, estimation, and interpretation stages of risk assessment. Models traditionally have been used to estimate exposure and effects; now opportunities are growing to use them to design and interpret risk assessments as well. This could raise the level of rigor, reproducibility, and transparency in the risk assessment process, and improve the way information and expertise gets integrated to advise risk managers. The importance of good design and interpretation to the success of risk assessment and risk management, and the role of modeling in that success, is becoming increasingly apparent, but to date models are used only to a fraction of their potential. We provide two examples of the use of models to design and interpret risk assessments. The first looks at the use of models to better characterize risks by modeling uncertainties and exposure from offsite sources, and the second to forecast future risks of a new technology. Following the examples, we discuss some important obstacles to translating new modeling opportunities into practice. These include practical limits on the abilities of organizations to assimilate new tools and methods, and conceptual limits in the way people think about models. 相似文献
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Glenn W. Suter Donald J. Rodier Scott Schwenk Michael E. Troyer Patricia L. Tyler Douglas J. Urban 《人类与生态风险评估》2004,10(6):967-981
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined that one of the major impediments to the advancement and application of ecological risk assessment is doubt concerning appropriate assessment endpoints. The Agency's Risk Assessment Forum determined that the best solution to this problem was to define a set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). They are assessment endpoints that are applicable to a wide range of ecological risk assessments; because they reflect the programmatic goals of the Agency, they are applicable to a wide array of environmental issues, and they may be estimated using existing assessment tools. They are not specifically defined for individual cases; some ad hoc elaboration by users is expected. The GEAEs are not exhaustive or mandatory. Although most of the Agency's ecological decisions have been based on organism-level effects, GEAEs are also defined for populations, ecosystems, and special places. 相似文献
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Rebecca A. Efroymson Virginia H. Dale Latha M. Baskaran Michael Chang Matthew Aldridge Michael W. Berry 《人类与生态风险评估》2005,11(6):1193-1215
Ecological risk assessments at military installations that are performed to support natural resources management objectives rely on information from the surrounding region. Stressors such as noise, ozone, and ozone precursors cross installation boundaries, and effects of urbanization and highway development are regional in scale. Ecological populations are not limited to one side of the installation boundary. Therefore, a framework for transboundary ecological risk assessment at military installations is under development. This article summarizes the problem formulation stage. Components include: (1) regional management goals such as installation Integrated Natural Resources Management Plans and land acquisition, (2) involvement of multiple stressors, and (3) large-scale assessment endpoint entities. Challenges of selecting measures of exposure include: quantifying exposure to aggregate stressors, describing land cover consistently in the region, describing rates of land-cover transition, scaling local measurements to a region, and aggregating or isolating exposures from within and outside of the installation. Measures of effect that are important to transboundary or regional ecological risk assessments at military installations are those that represent: effects at a distance from the stressor, large-scale effects, effects of habitat change or fragmentation, spatial extrapolations of localized effects, and integrated effects of multiple stressors. These factors are reflected in conceptual models. 相似文献
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Margaret H. Whittaker 《人类与生态风险评估》2004,10(5):753-757
Over the past 30 years, risk assessment has developed into a scientific discipline. It is critical that the next generation of risk assessors understand the history of our field, and recognize the numerous successes and failures that have taken place. This short Perspective identifies and describes specific books, monographs, and reports that are required reading for any nascent risk assessor. 相似文献
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Catherine Kramer Phil Brune Justin McDonald Monique Nesbitt Alaina Sauve Sabine Storck‐Weyhermueller 《Plant biotechnology journal》2016,14(9):1899-1913
Data requirements are not harmonized globally for the regulation of food and feed derived from stacked genetically modified (GM) events, produced by combining individual GM events through conventional breeding. The data required by some regulatory agencies have increased despite the absence of substantiated adverse effects to animals or humans from the consumption of GM crops. Data from studies conducted over a 15‐year period for several stacked GM event maize (Zea mays L.) products (Bt11 × GA21, Bt11 × MIR604, MIR604 × GA21, Bt11 × MIR604 × GA21, Bt11 × MIR162 × GA21 and Bt11 × MIR604 × MIR162 × GA21), together with their component single events, are presented. These data provide evidence that no substantial changes in composition, protein expression or insert stability have occurred after combining the single events through conventional breeding. An alternative food and feed risk assessment strategy for stacked GM events is suggested based on a problem formulation approach that utilizes (i) the outcome of the single event risk assessments, and (ii) the potential for interactions in the stack, based on an understanding of the mode of action of the transgenes and their products. 相似文献
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Toxicity tests are widely used to set “acceptable” levels of chemical exposure. Different organizations have identified a base set of tests specifying a mix of endpoints, durations, and species to be tested. A specific test and endpoint is chosen as the basis for calculation of human health risk values like reference doses (RfDs). This study empirically evaluates the data and choices made in setting acute and chronic RfDs for 352 conventional pesticides. The results suggest that for Acute, Acute-Female Specific, and Chronic RfDs one test is used far more than others. Ninety-six percent of the 116 Acute Female-Specific RfDs relied on a developmental toxicity test and 78% of Chronic RfDs used the chronic bioassay. Tests in rats were used far more often than other species in all RfD calculations. For all types of RfDs a total uncertainty factor of 100 was most common although values as low as 1 and as high as 3000 were seen. These results provide insights not only into the science policy frameworks used, but also into ways toxicity testing and risk assessment may be streamlined and made more efficient. 相似文献
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Rikard Levin 《人类与生态风险评估》2006,12(5):834-855
Uncertainty may influence decision-making. A prerequisite for a decision to be well founded is thus that scientific experts inform decision-makers about all decision relevant uncertainty. A set of conditions is provided for adequate characterization of scientific uncertainty for the purposes of regulatory decision-making. These conditions require specification of (1) the character and degree of uncertainty about the assessment variables, (2) the possibility of reducing the uncertainty, and (3) the degree of agreement among experts. Furthermore, it is required that (4) the information covered by the previous conditions is presented in a clear and comprehensible way. The point of departure is that characterizing scientific uncertainty conceptually means specifying all potentially important possibilities that are consistent with the state of scientific knowledge. The conditions are intended to be applied to human health risk assessment of chemicals. However, the basic approach, to consider potentially important possibilities, should be useful also to environmental, and site-specific risk assessment. 相似文献
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Rebecca A. Efroymson Mark J. Peterson Daniel S. Jones Glenn W. Suter II 《人类与生态风险评估》2008,14(5):854-870
An ecological risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF). The focus of the assessment was a testing program at the Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, that is, M60-A1 tanks. The problem formulation for the assessment included conceptual models for three component activities of the test, helicopter overflight, missile firing, and tracked vehicle movement, and two ecological endpoint entities, woody desert wash communities and desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) populations. An activity-specific risk assessment framework was available to provide guidance for assessing risks associated with aircraft overflights. Key environmental features of the assessment area include barren desert pavement and tree-lined desert washes. The primary stressors associated with helicopter overflights were sound and the view of the aircraft. The primary stressor associated with Hellfire missile firing was sound. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to desert washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased ponding, infiltration, and/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. A plan for estimating integrated risks from the three military activities was included in the problem formulation. 相似文献
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《Chronobiology international》2013,30(5):1149-1158
In Germany, risk assessment of the working time arrangement is legally required, and within this context the authors assessed the usefulness of the fatigue and risk index (FRI) to predict any detrimental effects to health and safety. This assessment was made using data from two different surveys. Each contained records of working hours over a 4-wk period plus information on occupational accidents and health complaints. The independent variables drawn from the FRI parameters included the maxima, means, variances, and index factor scores. Phi-correlations between the FRI (dichotomized to the index of the reference system) and the incidence of an occupational accident were rather moderate, with a maximum correlation of .22 using the mean fatigue index (FI). Correlations between the two index factor scores and health complaints (sleep problems, stomach pain, eructation/heartburn) revealed the FI component, but not the risk index (RI) component, was related to those health complaints. Forward stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated the FI (but not the RI) predicted occupational accidents (FIfactor odds ratio [OR]?=?1.90, confidence interval [CI] 1.23–2.93). When using multiple regression analyses, the FI was able to predict sleep problems and other circadian related-problems, but the regression coefficients were moderate. In general, the results were not considered sufficient to justify a mandatory use of the FRI. (Author correspondence: jana. greubel@gawo-ev. de) 相似文献
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Objective: To explore the relationship between public trust in scientific experts on obesity and public attention to nutrition recommendations, to investigate trust as a predictor of weight‐related behaviors, and to identify the sociodemographic characteristics associated with high and low trust in scientific experts on obesity. Research Methods and Procedures: This analysis used survey data from two sources: 1) a 2005 Harvard School of Public Health Obesity Survey (N = 2033), and 2) the 2004 General Social Survey (N = 2812). Five outcome measures were used. Three were used to explore trust as a predictor of attention and weight‐related behaviors. Two were used to identify the sociodemographic predictors of trust. Logistic regression analysis was used to model the outcome variables. Results: Trust in scientific experts was the strongest predictor of public attention to nutritional recommendations from scientific experts, but it was not directly related to weight‐related behaviors. Public attention was significantly associated with two weight‐related behaviors: tracking fruit and vegetable intake and exercise. Women and more educated individuals had significantly higher odds of trusting scientific experts. Characteristics associated with distrust in scientific experts included Hispanic race and older age (over 50). Discussion: Public health experts should work toward building trust as an important step in stemming the obesity epidemic. Further, more research is necessary to better understand the factors driving trust in scientific experts on obesity. A deeper insight in this area will certainly be of great benefit to obesity‐related risk communication and potentially lead to positive behavior change. 相似文献
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Ecological risk assessment and management have grown from a long history of assessment and management activities aimed at improving the everyday lives of humans. The background against which ecological risk assessment and management has developed is discussed and recent trends in the development of risk assessment and management frameworks documented. Seven frameworks from five different countries are examined. All maintain an important role for science, suggest adaptive approaches to decision-making and have well-defined analytical steps. Differences in approaches toward the separation of policy and science, the preference for management over assessment, the inclusion of stakeholders, the iterative nature of the analytical cycle, the use of decision criteria and economic information suggest considerable evolution in framework design over time. Despite the changes, no consensus on the design of a framework is apparent and work remains to be done on refining an integrative framework that effectively incorporates both policy and science considerations for environmental management purposes. 相似文献
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沈阳某冶炼厂废弃厂区的人类健康风险评价 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
以沈阳某冶炼厂废弃厂区重金属污染监测为依据,采用美国环保局最新的人类健康风险评价标准方法对沈阳某冶炼厂废弃地块污染土壤进行了评价,并且假设未来该土地利用类型为工业用地(Ⅰ)或休闲用地(Ⅱ).评价结果显示:工业用地(Ⅰ)和休闲用地(Ⅱ)的累积非致癌风险指数分别为2.65×10-2和3.67×10-2;工业用地(Ⅰ)和休闲用地(Ⅱ)由呼吸摄入Cd造成的潜在致癌风险指数分别为4.48×10-9和7.30×10-10,不会对在该地区工作和休闲的人们造成身体健康上的伤害;无论是工业用地假设还是休闲用地假设,由无机铜造成的人类健康风险在整个风险中所占的比例最大;由美国环保局的人类健康风险评价方法反推得出的冶炼厂地块未来为工业用地的土壤修复目标值均小于我国工业企业土壤环境质量风险评价基准值. 相似文献
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Mert Guney 《人类与生态风险评估》2016,22(6):1396-1417
Soil ingestion is an important pathway for human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-contaminated soils and dust for children (via ingesting hand residue) as well as for adults (via occupational exposure). An appropriate selection of exposure parameter values is essential for having an accurate risk assessment. This review addresses key parameters for estimating oral exposure to PAH-contaminated soils/dust, discusses their variability and uncertainty, and provides recommendations for value selection. Bioaccessibility (contaminant fraction solubilized in gastro-intestinal tract, available for entering bloodstream and reaching target organs) and soil ingestion rate are two key parameters for exposure assessment (usually characterized by large variability and/or uncertainty), followed by exposure frequency/duration and body weight. 相似文献
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Human and ecological health risk assessments and the decisions that stem from them require the acquisition and analysis of data. In agencies that are responsible for health risk decision-making, data (and/or opinions/judgments) are obtained from sources such as scientific literature, analytical and process measurements, expert elicitation, inspection findings, and public and private research institutions. Although the particulars of conducting health risk assessments of given disciplines may be dramatically different, a common concern is the subjective nature of judging data utility. Often risk assessors are limited to available data that may not be completely appropriate to address the question being asked. Data utility refers to the ability of available data to support a risk-based decision for a particular risk assessment. This article familiarizes the audience with the concept of data utility and is intended to raise the awareness of data collectors (e.g., researchers), risk assessors, and risk managers to data utility issues in health risk assessments so data collection and use will be improved. In order to emphasize the cross-cutting nature of data utility, the discussion has not been organized into a classical partitioning of risk assessment concerns as being either human health- or ecological health-oriented, as per the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund Program. 相似文献
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The applicability of a stochastic model was explored to assess the impact of a new independent agency for animal health in England in terms of the cost of animal disease outbreaks. The new agency was proposed to take responsibility for animal disease management in England. The stochastic model estimates the likelihood that the proposed new agency would face animal disease outbreaks of major and minor magnitude; and how many outbreaks of each magnitude, within its first 30 years of operation. Large variability in the potential total cost of the new agency was attributable to the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown major disease, although Bluetongue, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Avian Influenza were also influential. The results show that if the new agency reduces disease costs by even 0.5%, this could benefit society by an estimated £21 million per year. The stochastic approach offers a method for dealing with uncertainties in any continuing deliberations regarding the proposed new agency, resulting in a potential annual gain of £73 million ranging to an annual loss of £144 million. 相似文献