Disentangling the potential effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin‐wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land‐use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed‐wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed‐wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land‐use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed‐wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%–26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land‐use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land‐use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.     

Inter‐regional comparison of land‐use effects on stream metabolism

1. Rates of whole‐system metabolism (production and respiration) are fundamental indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Although first‐order, proximal controls are well understood, assessments of the interactions between proximal controls and distal controls, such as land use and geographic region, are lacking. Thus, the influence of land use on stream metabolism across geographic regions is unknown. Further, there is limited understanding of how land use may alter variability in ecosystem metabolism across regions. 2. Stream metabolism was measured in nine streams in each of eight regions (n = 72) across the United States and Puerto Rico. In each region, three streams were selected from a range of three land uses: agriculturally influenced, urban‐influenced, and reference streams. Stream metabolism was estimated from diel changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in each stream reach with correction for reaeration and groundwater input. 3. Gross primary production (GPP) was highest in regions with little riparian vegetation (sagebrush steppe in Wyoming, desert shrub in Arizona/New Mexico) and lowest in forested regions (North Carolina, Oregon). In contrast, ecosystem respiration (ER) varied both within and among regions. Reference streams had significantly lower rates of GPP than urban or agriculturally influenced streams. 4. GPP was positively correlated with photosynthetically active radiation and autotrophic biomass. Multiple regression models compared using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) indicated GPP increased with water column ammonium and the fraction of the catchment in urban and reference land‐use categories. Multiple regression models also identified velocity, temperature, nitrate, ammonium, dissolved organic carbon, GPP, coarse benthic organic matter, fine benthic organic matter and the fraction of all land‐use categories in the catchment as regulators of ER. 5. Structural equation modelling indicated significant distal as well as proximal control pathways including a direct effect of land‐use on GPP as well as SRP, DIN, and PAR effects on GPP; GPP effects on autotrophic biomass, organic matter, and ER; and organic matter effects on ER. 6. Overall, consideration of the data separated by land‐use categories showed reduced inter‐regional variability in rates of metabolism, indicating that the influence of agricultural and urban land use can obscure regional differences in stream metabolism.     

Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison

Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.     

Effects of livestock exclusion on in‐stream habitat and benthic invertebrate assemblages in montane streams

1. Stream and riparian ecosystems in arid montane areas, like the interior western United States, are often just narrow mesic strands, but support diverse and productive habitats. Meadows along many such streams have long been used for rangeland grazing, and, while impacts to riparian areas are relatively well known, the effect of livestock grazing on aquatic life in streams has received less attention. 2. Attempts to link grazing impacts to disturbance have been hindered by the lack of spatial and temporal replication. In this study, we compared channel features and benthic macroinvertebrate communities (i) between 16 stream reaches on two grazed allotments and between 22 reaches on two allotments where livestock had been completely removed for 4 years, (ii) before and after the 4‐year grazing respite at a subset of eight sites and (iii) inside and outside of small‐scale fenced grazing exclosures (eight pairings; 10+ year exclosures) in the meadows of the Golden Trout Wilderness, California (U.S.A.). 3. We evaluated grazing disturbance at the reach scale in terms of the effects of livestock trampling on per cent bank erosion and found that macroinvertebrate richness metrics were negatively correlated with bank erosion, while the percentage of tolerant taxa increased. 4. All macroinvertebrate richness metrics were significantly lower in grazed areas. Bank angle, temperature, fine sediment cover and erosion were higher in grazed areas, while riparian cover was lower. Regression models identified riparian cover, in‐stream substratum, bank conditions and bankfull width‐to‐depth ratios as the most important for explaining variability in macroinvertebrate richness metrics. 5. Small‐scale grazing exclosures showed no improvements for in‐stream communities and only moderate positive effects on riparian vegetation. In contrast, metrics of macroinvertebrate richness increased significantly after a 4‐year period of no grazing. 6. The success of grazing removal reported here suggests that short‐term removal of livestock at the larger, allotment meadow spatial scale is more effective than long‐term, but small‐scale, local riparian area fencing, and yields promising results in achieving stream channel, riparian and aquatic biological recovery.     

Recent land‐use changes affect stream ecosystem processes in a subtropical island in Brazil

Land‐use changes such as conversion of natural forest to rural and urban areas have been considered as main drivers of ecosystem functions decline, and a large variety of indicators has been used to investigate these effects. Here, we used a replicated litter‐bag experiment to investigate the effects of land‐use changes on the leaf‐litter breakdown process and leaf‐associated invertebrates along the forest–pasture–urban gradient located in a subtropical island (Florianópolis, SC, Brazil). We identified the invertebrates and measured the litter breakdown rates using the litter bags approach. Litter bags containing 3 g of dry leaf of Alchornea triplinervia were deployed on forest rural and urban streams. Principal component analysis, based on physico‐chemical variables which, confirmed a gradient of degradation from forest to urban streams with intermediate values in rural areas. In accordance, shredder richness and abundance were lower in rural and urban than in forest streams. The land‐use changes led also to the dominance of tolerant generalist taxa (Chironomidae and Oligochaeta) reducing the taxonomic and functional diversity in these sites. Leaf‐litter breakdown rates decreased from forest to rural and finally to urban areas and were associated with changes in pH, water velocity, dissolved oxygen and abundance of leaf‐shredding invertebrates, although global decomposition rates did not differ between rural and urban streams. Overall, this study showed that land‐use changes, namely to rural and urban areas, have a strong impact on tropical streams ecosystems, in both processes and communities composition and structure. Despite of being apparently a smaller transformation of landscape, rural land use is comparable to urbanisation in terms of impact in stream functioning. It is thus critical to carefully plan urban development and maintain forest areas in the island of Florianópolis in order to preserve its natural biodiversity and aquatic ecosystems functioning.     

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Land‐use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land‐use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970–2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.     

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land‐use legacies

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land‐use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land‐use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait‐based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land‐use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.     

Soil carbon sequestration and land‐use change: processes and potential

When agricultural land is no longer used for cultivation and allowed to revert to natural vegetation or replanted to perennial vegetation, soil organic carbon can accumulate. This accumulation process essentially reverses some of the effects responsible for soil organic carbon losses from when the land was converted from perennial vegetation. We discuss the essential elements of what is known about soil organic matter dynamics that may result in enhanced soil carbon sequestration with changes in land‐use and soil management. We review literature that reports changes in soil organic carbon after changes in land‐use that favour carbon accumulation. This data summary provides a guide to approximate rates of SOC sequestration that are possible with management, and indicates the relative importance of some factors that influence the rates of organic carbon sequestration in soil. There is a large variation in the length of time for and the rate at which carbon may accumulate in soil, related to the productivity of the recovering vegetation, physical and biological conditions in the soil, and the past history of soil organic carbon inputs and physical disturbance. Maximum rates of C accumulation during the early aggrading stage of perennial vegetation growth, while substantial, are usually much less than 100 g C m^?2 y^?1. Average rates of accumulation are similar for forest or grassland establishment: 33.8 g C m^?2 y^?1 and 33.2 g C m^?2 y^?1, respectively. These observed rates of soil organic C accumulation, when combined with the small amount of land area involved, are insufficient to account for a significant fraction of the missing C in the global carbon cycle as accumulating in the soils of formerly agricultural land.     

In‐stream habitat and macroinvertebrate responses to riparian corridor length in rangeland streams

Conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation in agricultural landscapes has had mixed success at protecting in‐stream habitat, potentially due to the mismatch between watershed‐scale impacts and reach‐scale restoration. Prioritizing contiguous placement of small‐scale restoration interventions may effectively create larger‐scale restoration projects and improve ecological outcomes. We performed a multi‐site field study to evaluate whether greater linear length of narrow riparian tree corridors resulted in measurable benefits to in‐stream condition. We collected data at 41 sites with varying upstream tree cover nested within 13 groups in rangeland streams in coastal northern California, United States. We evaluated the effect of riparian tree corridor length on benthic macroinvertebrate communities, as well as food resources, water temperature, and substrate size. Sites with longer riparian corridors had higher percentages of invertebrates sensitive to disturbance (including clingers and EPT taxa) as well as lower water temperatures and less fine sediment, two of the most important aquatic stressors. Despite marked improvement, we found no evidence that macroinvertebrate communities fully recovered, suggesting that land use continued to constrain conditions. The restoration of long riparian corridors may be an economically viable and rapidly implementable technique to improve habitat, control sediment, and counter increasing water temperatures expected with climate change within the context of ongoing land use.     

Importance of scale,land‐use,and stream network properties for riparian plant communities along an urban gradient

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Comparative responses of termite functional and taxonomic diversity to land‐use change

1. While it is clear that land‐use change significantly impacts the taxonomic dimension of soil biodiversity, how the functional dimension responds to land‐use change is less well understood. 2. This study examined how the transformation of primary forests into rubber tree monocultures impacts individual termite species and how this change is reflected in termite taxonomic and functional α‐diversity (within site) and β‐diversity (among sites). 3. Overall, individual species responded strongly to land‐use change, whereby only 11 of the 27 species found were able to tolerate both habitats. These differences caused a 27% reduction in termite taxonomic richness and reduced taxonomic β‐diversity in rubber plantations compared with primary forests. The study also revealed that the forest conversion led to a shift in some termite species with smaller body size, shorter legs and smaller mandibular traits. Primary forests exhibited higher functional richness and functional β‐diversity of termite species, indicating that functional traits of termite species in rubber plantations are more evenly distributed. 4. The present study suggests that forest conversion does not merely decrease taxonomic diversity of termites, but also exerts functional trait filtering within some termite species. The results affirm the need for biodiversity assessments that combine taxonomic and functional indicators when monitoring the impact of land‐use change.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Effects of land use on water chemistry and macroinvertebrates in two streams of the Piracicaba river basin, south-east Brazil

• 1 Several studies have shown that land use has a strong influence on river chemistry and its biotic components. Most of these studies focused on nitrogen in temperate American and European catchments. Much less is known about the relationship between stream conditions and land use in tropical areas of developing countries.
• 2 Besides climate, there are three important differences between attributes of temperate and tropical catchments: non‐point sources are the dominant contributor of pollution in USA, whereas point source pollution is the most important in our study; use of fertilizer is much smaller in developing countries, and the type of agriculture and management practices are distinct.
• 3 We test whether the chemical composition of streams and their macroinvertebrate communities can be related to land use. Accordingly, we compared the variability of chemical composition and macroinvertebrate communities in the streams of two catchments (Pisca and Cabras) belonging to the same ecoregion, but having different types of land use.
• 4 The main land use in the Pisca catchment in 1993 was sugar cane (62%), followed by pasture (22%) and urban centres (10%). In contrast, the main land use in the Cabras catchment was pasture (60%), followed by annual crops (13%) and forest (10%); urban centres occupied only 2% of the catchment.
• 5 In the Cabras catchment, most of the parameters correlated with a land use index (LUI) ( Fig. 2 ). However, only conductivity, major cations and major anions (with exception of sulfate) had a statistically significant correlation coefficient. More than 90% of the variance was explained for these parameters. DIC, NO₃ and richness of invertebrates (RI) also strongly correlated with LUI (R² = 0.75), although these correlation coefficients were not significant. Total suspended solids (TSS) had a significant correlation with LUI (R² = 0.98), but, the correlation was inverse. In the Pisca catchment, conductivity, major cations (with exception of potassium), major anions, and DIC, DO, and DOC had a strong and statistically significant correlation with LUI. Correlation coefficients were also high for respiration rate, although the correlation was not statistically significant.

Figure 2 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint Relationships between variables and LUI (land use index) for the Cabras (closed circle) and Pisca (open circle) catchments. Both catchment were pooled together in this figure, however, statistical tests were performed separately for each catchment.     

Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate, vegetation, and stream flow patterns in adjacent natural areas

We present evidence that land use practices in the plains of Colorado influence regional climate and vegetation in adjacent natural areas in the Rocky Mountains in predictable ways. Mesoscale climate model simulations using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) projected that modifications to natural vegetation in the plains, primarily due to agriculture and urbanization, could produce lower summer temperatures in the mountains. We corroborate the RAMS simulations with three independent sets of data: (i) climate records from 16 weather stations, which showed significant trends of decreasing July temperatures in recent decades; (ii) the distribution of seedlings of five dominant conifer species in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, which suggested that cooler, wetter conditions occurred over roughly the same time period; and (iii) increased stream flow, normalized for changes in precipitation, during the summer months in four river basins, which also indicates cooler summer temperatures and lower transpiration at landscape scales. Combined, the mesoscale atmospheric/land-surface model, short-term trends in regional temperatures, forest distribution changes, and hydrology data indicate that the effects of land use practices on regional climate may overshadow larger-scale temperature changes commonly associated with observed increases in CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.     

Soil carbon dynamics following land‐use change varied with temperature and precipitation gradients: evidence from stable isotopes

Knowledge of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics following deforestation or reforestation is essential for evaluating carbon (C) budgets and cycle at regional or global scales. Worldwide land‐use changes involving conversion of vegetation with different photosynthetic pathways (e.g. C₃ and C₄) offer a unique opportunity to quantify SOM decomposition rate and its response to climatic conditions using stable isotope techniques. We synthesized the results from 131 sites (including 87 deforestation observations and 44 reforestation observations) which were compiled from 36 published papers in the literatures as well as our observations in China's Qinling Mountains. Based on the ¹³C natural abundance analysis, we evaluated the dynamics of new and old C in top soil (0–20 cm) following land‐use change and analyzed the relationships between soil organic C (SOC) decomposition rates and climatic factors. We found that SOC decomposition rates increased significantly with mean annual temperature and precipitation in the reforestation sites, and they were not related to any climatic factor in deforestation sites. The mean annual temperature explained 56% of variation in SOC decomposition rates by exponential model (y = 0.0014e^0.1395x) in the reforestation sites. The proportion of new soil C increased following deforestation and reforestation, whereas the old soil C showed an opposite trend. The proportion of new soil C exceeded the proportion of old soil C after 45.4 years' reforestation and 43.4 years' deforestation, respectively. The rates of new soil C accumulation increased significantly with mean annual precipitation and temperature in the reforestation sites, yet only significantly increased with mean annual precipitation in the deforestation sites. Overall, our study provides evidence that SOC decomposition rates vary with temperature and precipitation, and thereby implies that global warming may accelerate SOM decomposition.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Historical land‐use and landscape change in southern Sweden and implications for present and future biodiversity

The two major aims of this study are (1) To test the performance of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) to quantify past landscape changes using historical maps and related written sources, and (2) to use the LRA and map reconstructions for a better understanding of the origin of landscape diversity and the recent loss of species diversity. Southern Sweden, hemiboreal vegetation zone. The LRA was applied on pollen records from three small bogs for four time windows between AD 1700 and 2010. The LRA estimates of % cover for woodland/forest, grassland, wetland, and cultivated land were compared with those extracted from historical maps within 3‐km radius around each bog. Map‐extracted land‐use categories and pollen‐based LRA estimates (in % cover) of the same land‐use categories show a reasonable agreement in several cases; when they do not agree, the assumptions used in the data (maps)‐model (LRA) comparison are a better explanation of the discrepancies between the two than possible biases of the LRA modeling approach. Both the LRA reconstructions and the historical maps reveal between‐site differences in landscape characteristics through time, but they demonstrate comparable, profound transformations of the regional and local landscapes over time and space due to the agrarian reforms in southern Sweden during the 18th and 19th centuries. The LRA was found to be the most reasonable approach so far to reconstruct quantitatively past landscape changes from fossil pollen data. The existing landscape diversity in the region at the beginning of the 18th century had its origin in the long‐term regional and local vegetation and land‐use history over millennia. Agrarian reforms since the 18th century resulted in a dramatic loss of landscape diversity and evenness in both time and space over the last two centuries leading to a similarly dramatic loss of species (e.g., beetles).