Tropical niche conservatism and the species richness gradient of North American butterflies

Aim We explore the potential role of the ‘tropical conservatism hypothesis’ in explaining the butterfly species richness gradient in North America. Its applicability can be derived from the tropical origin of butterflies and the presumed difficulties in evolving the cold tolerance required to permit the colonization and permanent occupation of the temperate zone. Location North America. Methods Digitized range maps for butterfly species north of Mexico were used to map richness for all species, species with distributions north of the Tropic of Capricorn (Extratropicals), and species that also occupy the tropics (Tropicals). A phylogeny resolved to subfamily was used to map the geographical pattern of mean root distance, a metric of the evolutionary development of assemblages. Regression models and general linear models examined environmental correlates of overall richness and for Extratropicals vs. Tropicals, patterns in summer vs. winter, and patterns in northern vs. southern North America. Results Species in more basal subfamilies dominate the south, whereas more derived clades occupy the north. There is also a ‘latitudinal’ richness gradient in Canada/Alaska, whereas in the conterminous USA richness primarily varies longitudinally. Overall richness is associated with broad‐ and mesoscale temperature gradients. The richness of Tropicals is strongly associated with temperature and distance from winter population sources. The richness of Extratropicals in the north is most strongly correlated with the pattern of glacial retreat since the more recent Ice Age, whereas in the south, richness is positively associated with the range of temperatures in mountains and the presence of forests but is negatively correlated with the broad‐scale temperature gradient. Main conclusions The tropical conservatism hypothesis provides a possible explanation for the complex structure of the species richness gradient. The Canada/Alaska fauna comprises temperate, boreal and tundra species that are nevertheless constrained by cold climates and limited vegetation, coupled with possible post‐Pleistocene recolonization lags. In the USA tropical species are constrained by temperature in winter as well as recolonization distances in summer, whereas temperate‐zone groups are richer in cooler climates in mountains and forests, where winter conditions are more suitable for diapause. The evolution of cold tolerance is key to both the evolutionary and ecological patterns.     

Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and anova s were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain‐dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland‐dwelling than in mountain‐dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses.     

Multiregional comparison of the ecological and phylogenetic structure of butterfly species richness gradients

Aim To examine butterfly species richness gradients in seven regions/countries and to quantify geographic mean root distance (MRD) patterns. My primary goal is to determine the extent to which an explanation for butterfly richness patterns based on tropical niche conservatism and the evolution of cold tolerance, proposed for the fauna of Canada and the USA, applies to other parts of the world. Location USA/Canada, Mexico, Europe/NW Africa, Transbaikal Siberia, Chile, South Africa and Australia. Methods Digitized range maps for butterfly species in each region were used to map richness patterns in summer (for all areas) and winter (for USA/Canada, Europe/NW Africa and Australia). A phylogeny resolved to subfamily was used to map the geographic MRD patterns. Regression trees and general linear models examined climatic and vegetation correlates of species richness and MRD within and among regions. Results Various combinations of climate and vegetation were strong predictors of species richness gradients within regions, but unresolved ‘regional’ factors contributed to the multiregional pattern. Regionally based differences in phylogenetic structure also exist, but MRD is negatively correlated with temperature both within and across areas. MRD patterns consistent with tropical niche conservatism occur in most areas. With a possible partial exception of Mexico, faunas in cold climates and in mountains are more derived than faunas in lowlands and tropical/subtropical climates. In USA/Canada, Europe and Australia, winter faunas are more derived than summer faunas. Main conclusions The phylogenetic pattern previously found in the USA and Canada is widespread in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and niche conservatism and the evolution of cold tolerance is the likely explanation for the development of the global butterfly species richness gradient over evolutionary time. Contemporary climate also influences species richness patterns but is unlikely to be a complete explanation globally. The importance of climate is also manifested in the seasonal loss of more basal butterfly elements outside the tropics in winter.     

Correlates of species richness in North American bat families

Aim A near universal truth in North America is that species richness increases from the Arctic Circle to the Central American tropics. Latitude is regarded as a major explanatory variable in species density, although it is only a surrogate for underlying ecological variables. I aimed to elucidate those underlying ecological variables that are associated with variation in bat species richness across the entire North American continent, providing a portrait of the macroecology of the order Chiroptera and its familial components. Methods I determined the number of bat species recorded for every state in Mexico and the United States, every province or territory in Canada, and every country in Central America. For each of these entities (n = 99), I also gathered basic data on mean annual precipitation, variation across the year (July vs. January) in mean temperature, mean January temperature, range in elevation (topographic relief), per cent vegetative cover and median latitude. Using a variety of linear regression and model‐fitting techniques, I analysed the strength and direction of the relationship between species richness and environmental variables for the order Chiroptera as a whole and separately for each of four familial groups: Molossidae (free‐tailed bats), Phyllostomidae (New World leaf‐nosed bats), Vespertilionidae (evening bats), and a set of six families (the Desmodontidae, Emballonuridae, Furipteridae, Natalidae, Noctilionidae, and Thyropteridae) represented in North America relatively poorly. Results and main conclusions Save for the Vespertilionidae, species richness of bats increased towards the Panamanian Isthmus. The Phyllostomidae and the set of miscellaneous families are particularly speciose in tropical Central America, with many fewer species occurring through subtropical Mexico into (in some cases) the southernmost United States. The Molossidae extends farther north, sparingly into the middle of the United States. Species density of the Vespertilionidae peaks in central and western Mexico and the southernmost United States, declining south through tropical southern Mexico and Central America and north through the central United States into Canada. Annual precipitation, January temperature, and topography are good predictors of species richness in the Chiroptera and the Molossidae, precipitation, topography, and temperature range in the Phyllostomidae, January temperature and topography in the Vespertilionidae, and precipitation alone in the collection of families. Vegetative cover explained little variation in the Chiroptera as a whole or in any family. After accounting for the effects of the environmental variables, latitude explained an insignificant amount of the residual variation in species richness. Bat families differ in their ecology, so studies of bat biogeography in North America may be misleading if they are examined only at the ordinal level.     

Local‐ to continental‐scale variation in the richness and composition of an aquatic food web

Aim We investigated patterns of species richness and composition of the aquatic food web found in the liquid‐filled leaves of the North American purple pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea (Sarraceniaceae), from local to continental scales. Location We sampled 20 pitcher‐plant communities at each of 39 sites spanning the geographic range of S. purpurea– from northern Florida to Newfoundland and westward to eastern British Columbia. Methods Environmental predictors of variation in species composition and species richness were measured at two different spatial scales: among pitchers within sites and among sites. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to examine correlates and similarities of species richness and abundance within and among sites. Results Ninety‐two taxa of arthropods, protozoa and bacteria were identified in the 780 pitcher samples. The variation in the species composition of this multi‐trophic level community across the broad geographic range of the host plant was lower than the variation among pitchers within host‐plant populations. Variation among food webs in richness and composition was related to climate, pore‐water chemistry, pitcher‐plant morphology and leaf age. Variation in the abundance of the five most common invertebrates was also strongly related to pitcher morphology and site‐specific climatic and other environmental variables. Main conclusions The surprising result that these communities are more variable within their host‐plant populations than across North America suggests that the food web in S. purpurea leaves consists of two groups of species: (1) a core group of mostly obligate pitcher‐plant residents that have evolved strong requirements for the host plant and that co‐occur consistently across North America, and (2) a larger set of relatively uncommon, generalist taxa that co‐occur patchily.     

The performance of range maps and species distribution models representing the geographic variation of species richness at different resolutions

Aim The method used to generate hypotheses about species distributions, in addition to spatial scale, may affect the biodiversity patterns that are then observed. We compared the performance of range maps and MaxEnt species distribution models at different spatial resolutions by examining the degree of similarity between predicted species richness and composition against observed values from well‐surveyed cells (WSCs). Location Mexico. Methods We estimated amphibian richness distributions at five spatial resolutions (from 0.083° to 2°) by overlaying 370 individual range maps or MaxEnt predictions, comparing the similarity of the spatial patterns and correlating predicted values with the observed values for WSCs. Additionally, we looked at species composition and assessed commission and omission errors associated with each method. Results MaxEnt predictions reveal greater geographic differences in richness between species rich and species poor regions than the range maps did at the five resolutions assessed. Correlations between species richness values estimated by either of the two procedures and the observed values from the WSCs increased with decreasing resolution. The slopes of the regressions between the predicted and observed values indicate that MaxEnt overpredicts observed species richness at all of the resolutions used, while range maps underpredict them, except at the finest resolution. Prediction errors did not vary significantly between methods at any resolution and tended to decrease with decreasing resolution. The accuracy of both procedures was clearly different when commission and omission errors were examined separately. Main conclusions Despite the congruent increase in the geographic richness patterns obtained from both procedures as resolution decreases, the maps created with these methods cannot be used interchangeably because of notable differences in the species compositions they report.     

Macroecological explanations for differences in species richness gradients: a canonical analysis of South American birds

Aim To evaluate how spatial variation of species richness in different bird orders responds to environmental gradients and determine which order level trait best predicts these relationships. Location South America. Methods A canonical correlation analysis was performed between the species richness in each of 17 bird orders and eight environmental variables in 374, 220 × 220 km cells. Loadings associated with the first two canonical variables were regressed against six order‐level predictors, including diversification level (number of species in each order), body size, median geographical range size and characteristics included in the model to control Type I error rates (the phylogenetic relationship among orders and levels of local‐scale spatial autocorrelation). Results Richness patterns of 14 bird orders were highly correlated with the first canonical axis, indicating that most orders respond similarly to energy‐water gradients (primarily actual evapotranspiration, minimum temperature and potential evapotranspiration). In contrast, species richness within Trochiliformes, Apodiformes and Galliformes were also correlated with the second canonical variable, representing measures of mesoscale climatic variation (range in elevation within cells, minimum temperature, and the interaction term between them) and landcover (habitat diversity). We also found that total diversification within orders was the best predictor of the loadings associated with the first canonical axis, whereas body size of each order best predicted loadings on the second axis. Conclusion Our results broadly support climatic‐related hypotheses as explanations for spatial variation in species richness of different orders. However, both historical (order‐specific variation in speciation rates) and ecological (dispersal of species that evolved by independent processes into areas amenable to birds) processes can explain the relationship between order level traits, such as body size and diversification level, and magnitude of response to current environment, furnishing then guidelines for a further and deeper understanding of broad‐scale diversity gradients.     

The role of exotic species in homogenizing the North American flora

Exotic species have begun to homogenize the global biota, yet few data are available to assess the extent of this process or factors that constrain its advance at global or continental scales. We evaluate homogenization of vascular plants across America north of Mexico by comparing similarity in the complete native and exotic floras between states and provinces of the USA and Canada. Compared with native species, exotic plants are distributed haphazardly among areas but spread more widely, producing differentiation of floras among neighbouring areas but homogenization at greater distance. The number of exotic species is more closely associated with the size of the human population than with ecological conditions, as in the case of native species, and their distributions are less influenced by climate than those of native species.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

The legacy of past climate and landscape change on species' current experienced climate and elevation ranges across latitude: a multispecies study utilizing mammals in western North America

Aim Elevation and climate ranges across latitude experienced by 21 wide‐ranging mammal species in western North America were summarized to examine two questions: (1) do populations in the northern and southern portions of a species’ range experience different climates or are environments selected to remain similar to climates at the core of ranges; and (2) how do species’ elevational ranges, experienced temperature seasonality and temperature ranges change across latitude? Given the larger effects of climate oscillations in the north vs. the south, a predicted outcome is for species to conserve climate niches across latitude and to show reduced climate and elevation ranges in the north. An alternative outcome is latitudinal niche diversification and increased climate variation in the north. Location Western North America. Methods The questions above were examined using a combination of species occurrence data bases, climate data bases, simple summaries of means and standard deviations and by testing summaries against random distributions across latitude for 21 mammal species from a variety of orders. Results The results showed that: (i) most species conserve their niche strongly or weakly given overall temperature gradients from north to south; (ii) seasonality experienced by species is relatively static until the highest latitudes despite directional trends across the region; and (iii) the elevation range and temperature variation that species experience decreases from south to north. Main conclusions Populations at range edges appear to partition environments to remain closer to temperature values similar to those at the core of the range. In addition, seasonality is not a likely explanatory factor of genetic diversity in latitudinal gradients. The data are instead more consistent with predictions that a combination of higher gene‐flow, increasing environmental instability and decreasing elevation gradients in the north compared to the south may lead to negative correlations between latitude and species’ climate variation. The results corroborate risks faced by northern mammal populations to global climate changes.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

The latitudinal gradient of species diversity among North American grasshoppers (Acrididae) within a single habitat: a test of the spatial heterogeneity hypothesis

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between habitat complexity and species diversity: the greater the heterogeneity of a habitat, the greater the number of species in that habitat. On a regional scale, this hypothesis has been proposed to explain the increases in species diversity from the poles to the tropics: the tropics are more diverse because they contain more habitats. On the local scale, the spatial heterogeneity hypothesis suggests that the tropics are more diverse because they contain more microhabitats. The positive relationship between habitat heterogeneity and species diversity, on the local scale, is well documented. In this paper, we test whether habitat heterogeneity on the local scale can explain the latitudinal gradient of species diversity on the regional scale. We determined the latitudinal gradient of species diversity of 305 species of North American grasshoppers using published distribution maps. We compared the slope of this multihabitat (regional-scale) gradient with the slope of a within-habitat (local-scale) gradient in the prairie grasslands. Our results show no significant difference between the slopes at the two scales. We tested the generality of our results by comparing multi- and within-habitat latitudinal gradients of species diversity for ants, scorpions and mammals using data from the literature. These results are in accordance with those from grasshoppers. We can therefore reject the local-scale spatial heterogeneity hypothesis as a mechanism explaining the regional-scale latitudinal gradient of species diversity. We discuss alternative mechanisms that produce this gradient.     

Climate and history explain the species richness peak at mid-elevation for Schizothorax fishes (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) distributed in the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions

Aim  We studied elevational species richness patterns of Schizothorax fishes and identified the roles of ecological and evolutionary factors in shaping the patterns of elevational diversity.
Location  The Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions.
Methods  We assembled distribution and altitude data for all Schizothorax species using the literature. We merged ecological and evolutionary approaches to test the relationships between species richness and ecological factors (climate, area, the mid-domain effect) or evolutionary factors (diversification rates and time of colonization).
Results  We found that species richness of Schizothorax fishes peaked at mid-elevations. Rainfall, area, the mid-domain effect and diversification rate were weak predictors of the richness pattern. Temperature showed a nonlinear relationship with species richness. Temperature and time of colonization were the most important variables in explaining the elevational diversity pattern.
Main conclusion  Our findings indicate that the time-for-speciation effect and niche conservatism play important roles in variation of species richness.     

Ecological biogeography of North American mammals: species density and ecological structure in relation to environmental gradients

Aim To evaluate the relationship of climate and physiography to species density and ecological diversity of North American mammals. Location North America, including Mexico and Central America. Methods Species density, size structure and trophic structure of mammalian faunas and nine environmental variables were documented for quadrats covering the entire continent. Spatial autocorrelation of species density and the environmental variables illustrated differences in their spatial structure at the continental scale. We used principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the climatic variables, linear multiple regression to determine which environmental variables best predict species density for the continent and several regions of the continent, and canonical ordination to evaluate how well the environmental variables predict ecological structure of mammalian faunas over North America. Results In the best regression model, five environmental variables, representing seasonal extremes of temperature, annual energy and moisture, and elevation, predicted 88% of the variation in species density for the whole continent. Among different regions of North America, the environmental variables that predicted species density vary. Changes in the size and trophic structure of mammalian faunas accompany changes in species density. Redundancy analysis demonstrated that environmental variables representing winter temperature, frostfree period, potential and actual evapotranspiration, and elevation account for 77% of the variation in ecological structure. Main conclusions The latitudinal gradient in mammalian species density is strong, but most of it is explained by variation in the environmental variables. Each ecological category peaks in species richness under particular environmental conditions. The changes of greatest magnitude involve the smallest size categories (< 10 g, 11–100 g), aerial insectivores and frugivores. Species in these categories, mostly bats, increase along a gradient of decreasing winter temperature and increasing annual moisture and frostfree period, trends correlated with latitude. At the opposite end of this gradient, species in the largest size category (101–1000 kg) increase in frequency. Species in size categories 3 (101–1000 g), 5 (11–100 kg) and 6 (101–1000 kg), herbivores, and granivores increase along a longitudinal gradient of increasing annual potential evapotranspiration and elevation. Much of the spatial pattern is consistent with ecological sorting of species ranges along environmental gradients, but differential rates of speciation and extinction also may have shaped the ecological diversity of extant North American mammals.     

Phenology dictates the impact of climate change on geographic distributions of six co‐occurring North American grasshoppers

Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is an important determinant of how well insects can either expand or shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change. Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test the hypothesis that phenology correlates with range expansion, given that co‐occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early‐ and late‐season species should possess different range expansion potentials, as estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios for the year 2050. My results suggest that, of the six species examined here, early‐season species were more sensitive to climate change than late‐season species. The three early‐season species examined here might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled geographic distributions of the three late‐season species were generally constant under climate change, likely because they were pre‐adapted to hot and dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how insect distributions might change in the future, but this hypothesis remains to be tested at a broader scale.