Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.     

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Soil CO2 efflux in a boreal pine forest under atmospheric CO2 enrichment and air warming

The response of forest soil CO₂ efflux to the elevation of two climatic factors, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ (↑CO₂ of 700 μmol mol⁻¹) and air temperature (↑ T with average annual increase of 5°C), and their combination (↑CO₂+↑ T ) was investigated in a 4-year, full-factorial field experiment consisting of closed chambers built around 20-year-old Scots pines ( Pinus sylvestris L.) in the boreal zone of Finland. Mean soil CO₂ efflux in May–October increased with elevated CO₂ by 23–37%, with elevated temperature by 27–43%, and with the combined treatment by 35–59%. Temperature elevation was a significant factor in the combined 4-year efflux data, whereas the effect of elevated CO₂ was not as evident. Elevated temperature had the most pronounced impact early and late in the season, while the influence of elevated CO₂ alone was especially notable late in the season. Needle area was found to be a significant predictor of soil CO₂ efflux, particularly in August, a month of high root growth, thus supporting the assumption of a close link between whole-tree physiology and soil CO₂ emissions. The decrease in the temperature sensitivity of soil CO₂ efflux observed in the elevated temperature treatments in the second year nevertheless suggests the existence of soil response mechanisms that may be independent of the assimilating component of the forest ecosystem. In conclusion, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and air temperature consistently increased forest soil CO₂ efflux over the 4-year period, their combined effect being additive, with no apparent interaction.     

Stability and reactivity of liposome‐encapsulated formate dehydrogenase and cofactor system in carbon dioxide gas‐liquid flow

Formate dehydrogenase from Candida boidinii (CbFDH) is potentially applicable in reduction of CO₂ through oxidation of cofactor NADH into NAD⁺. For this, the CbFDH activity needs to be maintained under practical reaction conditions, such as CO₂ gas‐liquid flow. In this work, CbFDH and cofactor were encapsulated in liposomes and the liposomal enzymes were characterized in an external loop airlift bubble column. The airlift was operated at 45°C with N₂ or CO₂ as gas phase at the superficial gas velocity U_G of 2.0 or 3.0 cm/s. The activities of liposomal CbFDH/cofactor systems were highly stable in the airlift regardless of the type of gas phase because liposome membranes prevented interactions of the encapsulated enzyme and cofactor molecules with the gas‐liquid interface of bubbles. On the other hand, free CbFDH was deactivated in the airlift especially at high U_G with CO₂ bubbles. The liposomal CbFDH/NADH could catalyze reduction of CO₂ in the airlift giving the fractional oxidation of the liposomal NADH of 23% at the reaction time of 360 min. The cofactor was kept inside liposomes during the reaction operation with less than 10% of leakage. All of the results obtained demonstrate that the liposomal CbFDH/NADH functions as a stable catalyst for reduction of CO₂ in the airlift. © 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2010     

An inventory‐based analysis of Canada's managed forest carbon dynamics, 1990 to 2008

Canada's forests play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle because of their large and dynamic C stocks. Detailed monitoring of C exchange between forests and the atmosphere and improved understanding of the processes that affect the net ecosystem exchange of C are needed to improve our understanding of the terrestrial C budget. We estimated the C budget of Canada's 2.3 × 10⁶ km² managed forests from 1990 to 2008 using an empirical modelling approach driven by detailed forestry datasets. We estimated that average net primary production (NPP) during this period was 809 ± 5 Tg C yr^?1 (352 g C m^?2 yr^?1) and net ecosystem production (NEP) was 71 ± 9 Tg C yr^?1 (31 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Harvesting transferred 45 ± 4 Tg C yr^?1 out of the ecosystem and 45 ± 4 Tg C yr^?1 within the ecosystem (from living biomass to dead organic matter pools). Fires released 23 ± 16 Tg C yr^?1 directly to the atmosphere, and fires, insects and other natural disturbances transferred 52 ± 41 Tg C yr^?1 from biomass to dead organic matter pools, from where C will gradually be released through decomposition. Net biome production (NBP) was only 2 ± 20 Tg C yr^?1 (1 g C m^?2 yr^?1); the low C sequestration ratio (NBP/NPP=0.3%) is attributed to the high average age of Canada's managed forests and the impact of natural disturbances. Although net losses of ecosystem C occurred during several years due to large fires and widespread bark beetle outbreak, Canada's managed forests were a sink for atmospheric CO₂ in all years, with an uptake of 50 ± 18 Tg C yr^?1 [net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂=?22 g C m^?2 yr^?1].     

Climate change cannot be entirely responsible for soil carbon loss observed in England and Wales, 1978–2003

We present results from modelling studies, which suggest that, at most, only about 10–20% of recently observed soil carbon losses in England and Wales could possibly be attributable to climate warming. Further, we present reasons why the actual losses of SOC from organic soils in England and Wales might be lower than those reported.     

Annual basal area increment and growth duration of Pinus taeda in response to eight years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment

Rising CO₂ is predicted to increase forest productivity, although the duration of the response and how it might be altered by variation in rainfall, temperature and other environmental variables are not well understood. We measured the basal area of rapidly growing Pinus taeda trees exposed to free‐air CO₂ enrichment for 8 years and used these measurements to estimate monthly and annual growth. We used these measurements in a statistical model to estimate the start and end of growth in each year. Elevated CO₂ increased the basal area increment (BAI) of trees by 13–27%. In most years, exposure to elevated CO₂ increased the growth rate but not the duration of the active growth period. With the exception of 1 year following an extreme drought and a severe ice storm, BAI was positively correlated with the amount of rainfall during the active growth period. The interannual variation in the relative enhancement of BAI caused by elevated CO₂ was strongly related to temperature and rainfall, and was greatest in years with high vapor pressure deficit. There was no evidence of a systematic reduction in the stimulation of growth during the first 8 years of this experiment, suggesting that the hypothesized limitation of the CO₂ response caused by nitrogen availability has yet to occur.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in stomatal conductance of rice at elevated atmospheric CO2 under fully open‐air conditions

Understanding of leaf stomatal responses to the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, [CO₂], is essential for accurate prediction of plant water use under future climates. However, limited information is available for the diurnal and seasonal changes in stomatal conductance (g_s) under elevated [CO₂]. We examined the factors responsible for variations in g_s under elevated [CO₂] with three rice cultivars grown in an open‐field environment under flooded conditions during two growing seasons (a total of 2140 individual measurements). Conductance of all cultivars was generally higher in the morning and around noon than in the afternoon, and elevated [CO₂] decreased g_s by up to 64% over the 2 years (significantly on 26 out of 38 measurement days), with a mean g_s decrease of 23%. We plotted the g_s variations against three parameters from the Ball‐Berry model and two revised versions of the model, and all parameters explained the g_s variations well at each [CO₂] in the morning and around noon (R² > 0.68), but could not explain these variations in the afternoon (R² < 0.33). The present results provide an important basis for modelling future water use in rice production.     

The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: implications for post‐thaw carbon loss

High‐latitude regions store large amounts of organic carbon (OC) in active‐layer soils and permafrost, accounting for nearly half of the global belowground OC pool. In the boreal region, recent warming has promoted changes in the fire regime, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and alter soil OC dynamics in both organic and mineral soil. We examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil OC accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near‐surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska. To estimate OC accumulation rates, we used chronosequence, radiocarbon, and modeling approaches. We also developed a simple model to track long‐term changes in soil OC stocks over past fire cycles and to evaluate the response of OC stocks to future changes in the fire regime. Our chronosequence and radiocarbon data indicate that OC turnover varies with soil depth, with fastest turnover occurring in shallow organic horizons (～60 years) and slowest turnover in near‐surface permafrost (>3000 years). Modeling analysis indicates that OC accumulation in organic horizons was strongly governed by carbon losses via combustion and burial of charred remains in deep organic horizons. OC accumulation in mineral soil was influenced by active layer depth, which determined the proportion of mineral OC in a thawed or frozen state and thus, determined loss rates via decomposition. Our model results suggest that future changes in fire regime will result in substantial reductions in OC stocks, largely from the deep organic horizon. Additional OC losses will result from fire‐induced thawing of near‐surface permafrost. From these findings, we conclude that the vulnerability of deep OC stocks to future warming is closely linked to the sensitivity of permafrost to wildfire disturbance.     

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide impairs the performance of root‐feeding vine weevils by modifying root growth and secondary metabolites

Predicting how insect crop pests will respond to global climate change is an important part of increasing crop production for future food security, and will increasingly rely on empirically based evidence. The effects of atmospheric composition, especially elevated carbon dioxide (eCO₂), on insect herbivores have been well studied, but this research has focussed almost exclusively on aboveground insects. However, responses of root‐feeding insects to eCO₂ are unlikely to mirror these trends because of fundamental differences between aboveground and belowground habitats. Moreover, changes in secondary metabolites and defensive responses to insect attack under eCO₂ conditions are largely unexplored for root herbivore interactions. This study investigated how eCO₂ (700 μmol mol^?1) affected a root‐feeding herbivore via changes to plant growth and concentrations of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phenolics. This study used the root‐feeding vine weevil, Otiorhynchus sulcatus and the perennial crop, Ribes nigrum. Weevil populations decreased by 33% and body mass decreased by 23% (from 7.2 to 5.4 mg) in eCO₂. Root biomass decreased by 16% in eCO₂, which was strongly correlated with weevil performance. While root N concentrations fell by 8%, there were no significant effects of eCO₂ on root C and N concentrations. Weevils caused a sink in plants, resulting in 8–12% decreases in leaf C concentration following herbivory. There was an interactive effect of CO₂ and root herbivory on root phenolic concentrations, whereby weevils induced an increase at ambient CO₂, suggestive of defensive response, but caused a decrease under eCO₂. Contrary to predictions, there was a positive relationship between root phenolics and weevil performance. We conclude that impaired root‐growth underpinned the negative effects of eCO₂ on vine weevils and speculate that the plant's failure to mount a defensive response at eCO₂ may have intensified these negative effects.     

An independent method of deriving the carbon dioxide fertilization effect in dry conditions using historical yield data from wet and dry years

Accurate estimates of the fertilization effect that elevated carbon dioxide [CO₂] has on crop yields are valuable for estimation of future crop production, yet there is still some controversy over these estimates due to possible CO₂‐by‐water‐status interactions in chamber studies and the difficulty of conducting field experiments with elevated [CO₂]. This study presents a new method to estimate the CO₂ fertilization effect (CFE) in dry conditions (CFE_dry), based on a combination of historical yield and climatic data and field experiments that do not require elevated [CO₂]. It was estimated that approximately 50 years of increasing [CO₂] (i.e., a 73 ppm increase) resulted in a 9% and 14% improvement of yield in dry conditions for maize and soybean, respectively, which are similar to estimates derived from free air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) studies. The main source of uncertainty in this approach relates to differential effects of technology trends such as new cultivars in wet vs. dry years. Estimates of this technology–water interaction can be refined by further experimentation under ambient [CO₂], offering a cost‐effective path for improving CFE estimates. The results should prove useful for modeling future yield impacts of climate change, and the approach could be used to derive estimates for other species using relatively simple yield trials.     

Snow depth, soil freezing, and fluxes of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane in a northern hardwood forest

Soil–atmosphere fluxes of trace gases (especially nitrous oxide (N₂O)) can be significant during winter and at snowmelt. We investigated the effects of decreases in snow cover on soil freezing and trace gas fluxes at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, a northern hardwood forest in New Hampshire, USA. We manipulated snow depth by shoveling to induce soil freezing, and measured fluxes of N₂O, methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) in field chambers monthly (bi-weekly at snowmelt) in stands dominated by sugar maple or yellow birch. The snow manipulation and measurements were carried out in two winters (1997/1998 and 1998/1999) and measurements continued through 2000. Fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄ showed a strong seasonal pattern, with low rates in winter, but N₂O fluxes did not show strong seasonal variation. The snow manipulation induced soil freezing, increased N₂O flux and decreased CH₄ uptake in both treatment years, especially during winter. Annual N₂O fluxes in sugar maple treatment plots were 207 and 99 mg N m⁻² yr⁻¹ in 1998 and 1999 vs. 105 and 42 in reference plots. Tree species had no effect on N₂O or CO₂ fluxes, but CH₄ uptake was higher in plots dominated by yellow birch than in plots dominated by sugar maple. Our results suggest that winter fluxes of N₂O are important and that winter climate change that decreases snow cover will increase soil:atmosphere N₂O fluxes from northern hardwood forests.     

Nitrogen deposition,vegetation burning and climate warming act independently on microbial community structure and enzyme activity associated with decomposing litter in low‐alpine heath

Low‐alpine heathlands are thought to be particularly sensitive to nitrogen (N) deposition, climate and land management change, yet little is known about how these factors regulate key belowground processes, like litter turnover, under field conditions. Here we use an in situ factorial field experiment to test the effects of increased atmospheric N deposition, climate manipulation and past vegetation burning, and their interactions, on litter decomposition and the activity and diversity of associated microorganisms. The use of litter from within (native) and outwith (standard) the experimental plots also enabled us to test whether decomposition and microbial functional diversity is driven primarily by soil conditions or litter chemistry. In general, extracellular enzyme activities of litter were driven by additions of simulated N deposition with phosphatase being the most responsive. We found that standard litter incubated in plots that had been burnt 8 years previously decomposed slower and lost less N and phosphorus than in unburnt plots. This material also had associated with it the greatest activity of glucosidase and the least diverse microbial community, as assessed by culture‐independent methods. Although all treatments significantly affected microbial diversity, burning explained most of the variability, indicating a close coupling between plant and microbial communities in these treatments. A striking feature of all the data relating to both standard and native litter was an almost complete lack of interactive effects between the treatments. The lack of interactions between the treatments indicates that each perturbation might affect different mechanisms in the decomposition process (including the composition of associated microbial communities) and nutrient cycling.     

Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at both ambient and elevated carbon dioxide

Continuing increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) will likely be accompanied by global warming. Our research objectives were (a) to determine the effects of season‐long exposure to daytime maximum/nighttime minimum temperatures of 32/22, 36/26, 40/30 and 44/34°C at ambient (350 μmol mol^?1) and elevated (700 μmol mol^?1) CO₂ on reproductive processes and yield of peanut, and (b) to evaluate whether the higher photosynthetic rates and vegetative growth at elevated CO₂ will negate the detrimental effects of high temperature on reproductive processes and yield. Doubling of CO₂ increased leaf photosynthesis and seed yield by 27% and 30%, respectively, averaged across all temperatures. There were no effects of elevated CO₂ on pollen viability, seed‐set, seed number per pod, seed size, harvest index or shelling percentage. At ambient CO₂, seed yield decreased progressively by 14%, 59% and 90% as temperature increased from 32/22 to 36/26, 40/30 and 44/34°C, respectively. Similar percentage decreases in seed yield occurred at temperatures above 32/22°C at elevated CO₂ despite greater photosynthesis and vegetative growth. Decreased seed yields at high temperature were a result of lower seed‐set due to poor pollen viability, and smaller seed size due to decreased seed growth rates and decreased shelling percentages. Seed harvest index decreased from 0.41 to 0.05 as temperature increased from 32/22 to 44/34°C under both ambient and elevated CO₂. We conclude that there are no beneficial interactions between elevated CO₂ and temperature, and that seed yield of peanut will decrease under future warmer climates, particularly in regions where present temperatures are near or above optimum.     

Consequences of simultaneous elevation of carbon dioxide and temperature for plant–herbivore interactions: a metaanalysis

The effects of elevated carbon dioxide on plant–herbivore interactions have been summarized in a number of narrative reviews and metaanalyses, while accompanying elevation of temperature has not received sufficient attention. The goal of our study is to search, by means of metaanalysis, for a general pattern in responses of herbivores, and plant characteristics important for herbivores, to simultaneous experimental increase of carbon dioxide and temperature (ECET) in comparison with both ambient conditions and responses to elevated CO₂ (EC) and temperature (ET) applied separately. Our database includes 42 papers describing studies of 31 plant species and seven herbivore species. Nitrogen concentration and C/N ratio in plants decreased under both EC and ECET treatments, whereas ET had no significant effect. Concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates and phenolics increased in EC, decreased in ET and did not change in ECET treatments, whereas terpenes did not respond to EC but increased in both ET and ECET; leaf toughness increased in both EC and ECET. Responses of defensive secondary compounds to treatments differed between woody and green tissues as well as between gymnosperm and angiosperm plants. Insect herbivore performance was adversely affected by EC, favoured by ET, and not modified by ECET. Our analysis allowed to distinguish three types of relationships between CO₂ and temperature elevation: (1) responses to EC do not depend on temperature (nitrogen, C/N, leaf toughness, phenolics in angiosperm leaves), (2) responses to EC are mitigated by ET (sugars and starch, terpenes in needles of gymnosperms, insect performance) and (3) effects emerge only under ECET (nitrogen in gymnosperms, and phenolics and terpenes in woody tissues). This result indicates that conclusions of CO₂ elevation studies cannot be directly extrapolated to a more realistic climate change scenario. The predicted negative effects of CO₂ elevation on herbivores are likely to be mitigated by temperature increase.     

Carbon balance in the tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest during climate change: scaling up from leaf physiology and soil carbon dynamics

Carbon exchange by the terrestrial biosphere is thought to have changed since pre-industrial times in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and variations (anomalies) in inter-annual air temperatures. However, the magnitude of this response, particularly that of various ecosystem types (biomes), is uncertain. Terrestrial carbon models can be used to estimate the direction and size of the terrestrial responses expected, providing that these models have a reasonable theoretical base. We formulated a general model of ecosystem carbon fluxes by linking a process-based canopy photosynthesis model to the Rothamsted soil carbon model for biomes that are not significantly affected by water limitation. The difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) represents net ecosystem production (NEP). The model includes (i) multiple compartments for carbon storage in vegetation and soil organic matter, (ii) the effects of seasonal changes in environmental parameters on annual NEP, and (iii) the effects of inter-annual temperature variations on annual NEP. Past, present and projected changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface air temperature (at different latitudes) were analysed for their effects on annual NEP in tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest biomes. In all three biomes, annual NEP was predicted to increase with CO₂ concentration but to decrease with warming. As CO₂ concentrations and temperatures rise, the positive carbon gains through increased NPP are often outweighed by losses through increased R_h, particularly at high latitudes where global warming has been (and is expected to be) most severe. We calculated that, several times during the past 140 years, both the tundra and boreal forest biomes have switched between being carbon sources (annual NEP negative) and being carbon sinks (annual NEP positive). Most recently, significant warming at high latitudes during 1988 and 1990 caused the tundra and boreal forests to be net carbon sources. Humid tropical forests generally have been a carbon sink since 1960. These modelled responses of the various biomes are in agreement with other estimates from either field measurements or geochemical models. Under projected CO₂ and temperature increases, the tundra and boreal forests will emit increasingly more carbon to the atmosphere while the humid tropical forest will continue to store carbon. Our analyses also indicate that the relative increase in the seasonal amplitude of the accumulated NEP within a year is about 0–14% year^?1 for boreal forests and 0–23% year^?1 in the tundra between 1960 and 1990.