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1.
There is a general assumption that intraspecific populations originating from relatively arid climates will be better adapted to cope with the expected increase in drought from climate change. For ecologically and economically important species, more comprehensive, genecological studies that utilize large distributions of populations and direct measures of traits associated with drought‐resistance are needed to empirically support this assumption because of the implications for the natural or assisted regeneration of species. We conducted a space‐for‐time substitution, common garden experiment with 35 populations of coast Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) growing at three test sites with distinct summer temperature and precipitation (referred to as ‘cool/moist’, ‘moderate’, or ‘warm/dry’) to test the hypotheses that (i) there is large genetic variation among populations and regions in traits associated with drought‐resistance, (ii) the patterns of genetic variation are related to the native source‐climate of each population, in particular with summer temperature and precipitation, (iii) the differences among populations and relationships with climate are stronger at the warm/dry test site owing to greater expression of drought‐resistance traits (i.e., a genotype × environment interaction). During midsummer 2012, we measured the rate of water loss after stomatal closure (transpirationmin), water deficit (% below turgid saturation), and specific leaf area (SLA, cmg?1) on new growth of sapling branches. There was significant genetic variation in all plant traits, with populations originating from warmer and drier climates having greater drought‐resistance (i.e., lower transpirationmin, water deficit and SLA), but these trends were most clearly expressed only at the warm/dry test site. Contrary to expectations, populations from cooler climates also had greater drought‐resistance across all test sites. Multiple regression analysis indicated that Douglas‐fir populations from regions with relatively cool winters and arid summers may be most adapted to cope with drought conditions that are expected in the future.  相似文献   

2.
Background and AimsExtreme drought conditions across the globe are impacting biodiversity, with serious implications for the persistence of native species. However, quantitative data on physiological tolerance are not available for diverse flora to inform conservation management. We quantified physiological resistance to cavitation in the diverse Hakea genus (Proteaceae) to test predictions based on climatic origin, life history and functional traits.MethodsWe sampled terminal branches of replicate plants of 16 species in a common garden. Xylem cavitation was induced in branches under varying water potentials (tension) in a centrifuge, and the tension generating 50 % loss of conductivity (stem P50) was characterized as a metric for cavitation resistance. The same branches were used to estimate plant functional traits, including wood density, specific leaf area and Huber value (sap flow area to leaf area ratio).Key ResultsThere was significant variation in stem P50 among species, which was negatively associated with the species climate origin (rainfall and aridity). Cavitation resistance did not differ among life histories; however, a drought avoidance strategy with terete leaf form and greater Huber value may be important for species to colonize and persist in the arid biome.ConclusionsThis study highlights climate (rainfall and aridity), rather than life history and functional traits, as the key predictor of variation in cavitation resistance (stem P50). Rainfall for species origin was the best predictor of cavitation resistance, explaining variation in stem P50, which appears to be a major determinant of species distribution. This study also indicates that stem P50 is an adaptive trait, genetically determined, and hence reliable and robust for predicting species vulnerability to climate change. Our findings will contribute to future prediction of species vulnerability to drought and adaptive management under climate change.  相似文献   

3.
For freshwater systems, climate change‐induced alterations to drought regimes are a considerable threat to already threatened species. This is particularly poignant for kōwaro (or Canterbury mudfish, Neochanna burrowsius), a critically endangered fish largely restricted to drying‐prone waterways on the Canterbury Plains, New Zealand. By comparing three catchment‐wide surveys (2007, 2010, 2015) within the Waianiwaniwa Valley, we assessed the scale and magnitude of population change induced by 2 years of consecutive drought (2014–15), when compared to surveys during wetter conditions (2007, 2010). The droughts triggered a catchment‐wide switch from adult‐dominated populations to populations comprised of juveniles indicated by a significant reduction in median size (~95 mm during the wet to ~60 mm after drought). In comparison, population abundances were highly variable, indicated by no significant change in catch‐per‐unit‐effort. The large variation in catch rates and connection of median size to reproductive potential mean median size will be useful to measure in monitoring to infer potential changes to population resilience, particularly during extreme events. Furthermore, because N. burrowsius could be regarded as extremophile fish, already restricted to harsh habitats, they are likely to become increasingly threatened by climate change. Thus, tools that allow for insightful comparisons between populations, such as a population resilience framework based on both abundance and body size distribution, will be increasingly important for pragmatic decision‐making for targeted conservation measures.  相似文献   

4.
Current climate models predict a shift to warmer, drier conditions in the southwestern US. While major shifts in plant distribution are expected to follow these climate changes, interactions among species and intraspecific genetic variation rarely have been incorporated into models of future plant distributions. We examined the drought‐related mortality of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in northern Arizona focusing on trees that showed genetically‐based resistance or susceptibility to a nonlethal herbivore, the shoot‐boring moth, Dioryctria albovittella. Because moth resistant trees have outperformed susceptible trees during 20 years of study, and herbivory has been shown to increase drought related mortality, we expected higher mortality rates in susceptible trees. However, our field observations and greenhouse experiments showed several unexpected patterns relevant to understanding the consequences of climate change: (1) The mortality of adult P. edulis resistant to the moth was three times higher than the mortality of trees susceptible to the moth. (2) Over a few years, differential mortality caused a shift in stand structure from resistant dominated to equality (3 : 1 resistant : susceptible to 1 : 1). (3) Adult moth resistant trees suffered significantly greater water stress than adult moth susceptible trees, suggesting that variation among the two groups in drought tolerance may be a mechanism for differential mortality. (4) When grown under drought conditions in the greenhouse, seedlings from resistant mothers died sooner than seedlings from susceptible mothers. These data support the hypothesis that drought can act as an agent of balancing selection and that drought resistance is a heritable trait. Taken together, our findings suggest that genetic variation in a population can be an important factor in determining its response to future climate change, and argue for the inclusion of genetics into models developed to understand the consequences of climate change.  相似文献   

5.
6.
One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up‐slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high‐elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower‐elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up‐slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower‐elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up‐slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower‐elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.  相似文献   

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8.
Globally, montane tropical diversity is characterized by extraordinary local endemism that is not readily explained by current environmental variables indicating a strong imprint of history. Montane species often exist as isolated populations under current climatic conditions and may have remained isolated throughout recent climatic cycles, leading to substantial genetic and phenotypic divergence. Alternatively, populations may have become contiguous during colder climates resulting in less divergence. Here we compare responses to historical climate fluctuation in a montane specialist skink, Lampropholis robertsi, and its more broadly distributed congener, L. coggeri, both endemic to rainforests of northeast Australia. To do so, we combine spatial modelling of potential distributions under representative palaeoclimates, multi‐locus phylogeography and analyses of phenotypic variation. Spatial modelling of L. robertsi predicts strong isolation among disjunct montane refugia during warm climates, but with potential for localized exchange during the most recent glacial period. In contrast, predicted stable areas are more widespread and connected in L. coggeri. Both species exhibit pronounced phylogeographic structuring for mitochondrial and nuclear genes, attesting to low dispersal and high persistence across multiple isolated regions. This is most prominent in L. robertsi, for which coalescent analyses indicate that most populations persisted in isolation throughout the climate cycles of the Pleistocene. Morphological divergence, principally in body size, is more evident among isolated populations of L. robertsi than L. coggeri. These results highlight the biodiversity value of isolated montane populations and support the general hypothesis that tropical montane regions harbour high levels of narrow‐range taxa because of their resilience to past climate change.  相似文献   

9.
The strength of plant‐herbivore interactions varies spatially and through plant ontogeny, which may result in variable selection on plant defense, both among populations and life‐history stages. To test whether populations have diverged in herbivore resistance at an early plant stage, we quantified oviposition preference and larval feeding by Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) on young (5–6 weeks old) Arabidopsis lyrata (L.) O'Kane & Al‐Shehbaz (Brassicaceae) plants, originating from 12 natural populations, six from Sweden and six from Norway. Arabidopsis lyrata can be trichome‐producing or glabrous, with glabrous plants usually receiving more damage from insect herbivores in natural populations. We used the six populations polymorphic for trichome production to test whether resistance against P. xylostella differs between the glabrous and the trichome‐producing morph among young plants. There was considerable variation among populations in the number of eggs received and the proportion of leaf area consumed by P. xylostella, but not between regions (Sweden vs. Norway) or trichome morphs. Rosette size explained a significant portion of the variation in oviposition and larval feeding. The results demonstrate that among‐population variation in resistance to insect herbivory can be detected among very young individuals of the perennial herb A. lyrata. They further suggest that trichome densities are too low at this plant developmental stage to contribute to resistance, and that the observed among‐population variation in resistance is related to differences in other plant traits.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, we test for the key bioclimatic variables that significantly explain the current distribution of plant species richness in a southern African ecosystem as a preamble to predicting plant species richness under a changed climate. We used 54,000 records of georeferenced plant species data to calculate species richness and spatially interpolated climate data to derive nineteen bioclimatic variables. Next, we determined the key bioclimatic variables explaining variation in species richness across Zimbabwe using regression analysis. Our results show that two bioclimatic variables, that is, precipitation of the warmest quarter (R2 = 0.92, P < 0.001) and temperature of the warmest month (R2 = 0.67, P < 0.001) significantly explain variation in plant species richness. In addition, results of bioclimatic modelling using future climate change projections show a reduction in the current bio‐climatically suitable area that supports high plant species richness. However, in high‐altitude areas, plant richness is less sensitive to climate change while low‐altitude areas show high sensitivity. Our results have important implications to biodiversity conservation in areas sensitive to climate change; for example, high‐altitude areas are likely to continue being biodiversity hotspots, as such future conservation efforts should be concentrated in these areas.  相似文献   

11.
Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.  相似文献   

12.
Drought events are predicted to increase due to climate change, yet consequences for plant–insect interactions are only partially understood. Drought‐mediated interactions between herbivores and their host plants are affected by a combination of factors, including characteristics of the affected plant, its associated herbivore and of the prevailing drought. Studying the effect of these factors in combination may provide important insight into plant and herbivore responses to drought. We studied drought effects on plant resistance to two leaf‐chewing herbivores by considering differing growth conditions, plant chemistry and insect responses in concert. We exposed Alliaria petiolata plants from several wild populations to different intensities of intermittent drought stress and quantified drought‐mediated changes in plant chemistry. Simultaneously, we assessed behavior (feeding preference) and performance of two lepidopteran herbivores: Pieris brassicae, a specialist, and Spodoptera littoralis, a generalist. Drought led to lowest concentrations of secondary defense compounds in severely stressed plants, without affecting total nitrogen content. Additionally, drought evoked opposite patterns in feeding preferences (plant palatability) between the herbivore species. Pieris brassicae consumed most of well‐watered plants, while S. littoralis preferred severely drought‐stressed plants. Hence, feeding preferences of S. littoralis reflected changes in plant secondary chemistry. Contrary to their feeding preference, P. brassicae performed better on drought‐stressed than on well‐watered plants, with faster development and higher attained pupal mass (plant suitability). Spodoptera littoralis showed retarded development in all treatments. In conclusion, drought caused plant secondary defense compounds to decrease consistently across all studied plant populations, which evoked contrasting feeding preferences of two herbivore species of the same feeding guild. These results suggest herbivore specificity as a possible explanation for herbivore responses to drought and emphasize the importance of herbivore characteristics such as feeding specialization in understanding and predicting consequences of future drought events.  相似文献   

13.
  • Species responses to climate change will be primarily driven by their environmental tolerance range, or niche breadth, with the expectation that broad niches will increase resilience. Niche breadth is expected to be larger in more heterogeneous environments and moderated by life history. Niche breadth also varies across life stages. Therefore, the life stage with the narrowest niche may serve as the best predictor of climatic vulnerability. To investigate the relationship between niche breadth, climate and life stage we identify germination niche breadth for dormant and non‐dormant seeds in multiple populations of three milkweed (Asclepias) species.
  • Complementary trials evaluated germination under conditions simulating historic and predicted future climate by varying cold–moist stratification temperature, length and incubation temperature. Germination niche breadth was derived from germination evenness across treatments (Levins Bn), with stratified seeds considered less dormant than non‐stratified seeds.
  • Germination response varies significantly among species, populations and treatments. Cold–moist stratification ≥4 weeks (1–3 °C) followed by incubation at 25/15 °C+ achieves peak germination for most populations. Germination niche breadth significantly expands following stratification and interacts significantly with latitude of origin. Interestingly, two species display a positive relationship between niche breadth and latitude, while the third presents a concave quadratic relationship.
  • Germination niche breadth significantly varies by species, latitude and population, suggesting an interaction between source climate, life history and site‐specific factors. Results contribute to our understanding of inter‐ and intraspecific variation in germination, underscore the role of dormancy in germination niche breadth, and have implications for prioritising and conserving species under climate change.
  相似文献   

14.
Improving our understanding of the potential of forest adaptation is an urgent task in the light of predicted climate change. Long‐term alternatives for susceptible yet economically important tree species such as Norway spruce (Picea abies) are required, if the frequency and intensity of summer droughts will continue to increase. Although Silver fir (Abies alba) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) have both been described as drought‐tolerant species, our understanding of their growth responses to drought extremes is still limited. Here, we use a dendroecological approach to assess the resistance, resilience, and recovery of these important central Europe to conifer species the exceptional droughts in 1976 and 2003. A total of 270 trees per species were sampled in 18 managed mixed‐species stands along an altitudinal gradient (400–1200 m a.s.l.) at the western slopes of the southern and central Black Forest in southwest Germany. While radial growth in all species responded similarly to the 1976 drought, Norway spruce was least resistant and resilient to the 2003 summer drought. Silver fir showed the overall highest resistance to drought, similarly to Douglas fir, which exhibited the widest growth rings. Silver fir trees from lower elevations were more drought prone than trees at higher elevations. Douglas fir and Norway spruce, however, revealed lower drought resilience at higher altitudes. Although the 1976 and 2003 drought extremes were quite different, Douglas fir maintained consistently the highest radial growth. Although our study did not examine population‐level responses, it clearly indicates that Silver fir and Douglas fir are generally more resistant and resilient to previous drought extremes and are therefore suitable alternatives to Norway spruce; Silver fir more so at higher altitudes. Cultivating these species instead of Norway spruce will contribute to maintaining a high level of productivity across many Central European mountain forests under future climate change.  相似文献   

15.
We currently face both an extinction and a biome crisis embedded in a changing climate. Many biodiverse ecosystems are being lost at far higher rates than they are being protected or ecologically restored. At the same time, natural climate solutions offer opportunities to restore biodiversity while mitigating climate change. The Bonn Challenge is a U.N. programme to restore biodiversity and mitigate climate change through restoration of the world's degraded landscapes. It provides an unprecedented chance for ecological restoration to become a linchpin tool for addressing many environmental issues. Unfortunately, the Forest and Landscape Restoration programme that underpins the Bonn Challenge, as its name suggests, remains focused on trees and forests, despite rising evidence that many non‐forest ecosystems also offer strong restoration potential for biodiversity and climate mitigation. We see a need for restoration to step back to be more inclusive of different ecosystem types and to step up to provide integrated scientific knowledge to inform large‐scale restoration. Stepping back and up will require assessments of where to restore what species, with recognition that in many landscapes multiple habitat types should be restored. In the process, trade‐offs in the delivery of different ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, biodiversity, water, albedo, livestock forage) should be clearly addressed. We recommend that biodiversity safeguards be included in policy and implemented in practice, to avoid undermining the biophysical relationships that provide ecosystem resilience to climate change. For ecological restoration to contribute to international policy goals will require integrated large‐scale science that works across biome boundaries.  相似文献   

16.
Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species’ demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast–slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long‐term capture–recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow–fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (Tcristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (Bvariegata and Ssalamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast–slow continuum.  相似文献   

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18.
The effects of elevated CO2 and drought on ecophysiological parameters in grassland species have been examined, but few studies have investigated the effect of competition on those parameters under climate change conditions. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of elevated CO2 and drought on the response of plant water relations, gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence and aboveground biomass in four grassland species, as well as to assess whether the type of competition modulates that response. Elevated CO2 in well‐watered conditions increased aboveground biomass by augmenting CO2 assimilation. Drought reduced biomass by reducing CO2 assimilation rate via stomatal limitation and, when drought was more severe, also non‐stomatal limitation. When plants were grown under the combined conditions of elevated CO2 and drought, drought limitation observed under ambient CO2 was reduced, permitting higher CO2 assimilation and consequently reducing the observed decrease in aboveground biomass. The response to climate change was species‐specific and dependent on the type of competition. Thus, the response to elevated CO2 in well‐watered grasses was higher in monoculture than in mixture, while it was higher in mixture compared to monoculture for forbs. On the other hand, forbs were more affected than grasses by drought in monoculture, while in mixture the negative effect of drought was higher in grasses than in forbs, due to a lower capacity to acquire water and mineral nutrients. These differences in species‐level growth responses to CO2 and drought may lead to changes in the composition and biodiversity of the grassland plant community in future climate conditions.  相似文献   

19.
Developing strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage‐based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather‐induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard.  相似文献   

20.
Populations residing near species' low‐latitude range margins (LLMs) often occur in warmer and drier environments than those in the core range. Thus, their genetic composition could be shaped by climatic drivers that differ from those occurring at higher latitudes, resulting in potentially adaptive variants of conservation value. Such variants could facilitate the adaptation of populations from other portions of the geographical range to similar future conditions anticipated under ongoing climate change. However, very few studies have assessed standing genetic variation at potentially adaptive loci in natural LLM populations. We investigated standing genetic variation at single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located within 117 candidate genes and its links to putative climatic selection pressures across 19 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) populations distributed along a regional climatic gradient near the species' southern range margin in southeastern Europe. These populations are restricted to floodplain forests along large lowland rivers, whose hydric regime is undergoing significant shifts under modern rapid climate change. The populations showed very weak geographical structure, suggesting extensive genetic connectivity and gene flow or shared ancestry. We identified eight (6.2%) positive FST‐outlier loci, and genotype–environment association analyses revealed consistent associations between SNP allele frequencies and several climatic variables linked to water availability. A total of 61 associations involving 37 SNPs (28.5%) from 35 annotated genes provided important insights into putative functional mechanisms in our system. Our findings provide empirical support for the role of LLM populations as sources of potentially adaptive variation that could enhance species’ resilience to climate change‐related pressures.  相似文献   

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