Invasive exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia) as a major threat to native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica): a habitat suitability model approach

The introduction of alien species to new environments is one of the main threats to the conservation of biodiversity. One particularly problematic example is that of wild ungulates which are increasingly being established in regions outside their natural distribution range due to human hunting interests. Unfortunately, we know little of the effects these large herbivores may have on the host ecosystems. This study deals with a first comparative analysis of the habitat requirements of two ungulate species that may be facing competition for resources in the south of Europe: the native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) and the exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia). The aoudad is a North African caprid introduced in 1970 as a game species in south‐eastern Spain. It has adapted well, and populations have been freely expanding since then. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis is used to describe the realized niche of both species where their distribution ranges merge. Both species occupy marginal areas of rugged terrain in the region. Marginality is higher for the Iberian ibex, which also presents a higher tolerance of secondary environmental gradients than the aoudad. Highly suitable areas for each species are secondarily suitable for the other. Reclassified and cross‐tabulated habitat suitability maps showing the areas of potential spatial coexistence and differences in ecological traits between both species are provided. The results obtained do not allow inferring resource competition between these species. However, current aoudad expansion could result in it invading the favoured habitats of the ibex. Inadequate hunting policy and monitoring, and increasing climatic resemblance of the study region to the native aoudad areas, due to a strong desertification process, are facilitating a high rate of expansion. We strongly recommend to eradicate or, at least, monitor these exotic populations, and promote active conservation practices, if one wants to preserve the unique natural resources present in this European region.     

Context‐dependent conservation of the cavity‐nesting European Roller

To maximize the effectiveness of conservation interventions, it is crucial to have an understanding of how intraspecific variation determines the relative importance of potential limiting factors. For bird populations, limiting factors include nest‐site availability and foraging resources, with the former often addressed through the provision of artificial nestboxes. However, the effectiveness of artificial nestboxes depends on the relative importance of nest‐site vs. foraging resource limitations. Here, we investigate factors driving variation in breeding density, nestbox occupation and productivity in two contrasting study populations of the European Roller Coracias garrulus, an obligate cavity‐nesting insectivorous bird. Breeding density was more than four times higher at the French study site than at the Latvian site, and there was a positive correlation between breeding density (at the 1‐km² scale) and nest‐site availability in France, whereas there was a positive correlation between breeding density and foraging resource availability in Latvia. Similarly, the probability of a nestbox being occupied increased with predicted foraging resource availability in Latvia but not in France. We detected no positive effect of foraging resource availability on productivity at either site, with most variation in breeding success driven by temporal effects: a seasonal decline in France and strong interannual fluctuations in Latvia. Our results indicate that the factors limiting local breeding density can vary across a species' range, resulting in different conservation priorities. Nestbox provisioning is a sufficient short‐term conservation solution at our French study site, where foraging resources are typically abundant, but in Latvia the restoration of foraging habitat may be more important.     

Genetic identification of endangered North African ungulates using noninvasive sampling

North African ungulates include several threatened and emblematic species, yet are poorly studied mainly due to their remoteness and elusiveness. Noninvasive sampling provides a useful approach to obtain ecological and genetic information essential to guide conservation actions. The very first and most important step in conservation planning is to accurately identify species, and molecular genetics has been proved to be a useful tool. Several molecular genetics protocols are available for species identification, even for samples with poor quality DNA, such as faeces, hairs or bones. Most of these protocols use mitochondrial DNA for barcoding despite this marker being especially prone to problems, including mtDNA introgression, nuclear insert copies, high intraspecific diversity or heteroplasmy. In this work, we developed a molecular method based on polymorphisms in small fragments of the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb, mtDNA) and the nuclear kappa casein genes (KCAS, nDNA) for identifying endangered North African ungulates. These fragments revealed polymorphisms, including species‐specific variation, which allowed species identification of nine ungulate species that co‐occur in North Africa. The method was validated across more than 400 samples, including different types of noninvasive samples collected in the field. The simplicity, high reliability and relative low cost of the described method make it a promising tool to improve ecological studies of the North African ungulates and consequently, the implementation of more efficient management and conservation plans for these endangered ungulates.     

Habitat use, diet and roost selection by the Big Brown Bat (Eptesicus fuscus) in North America: a case for conserving an abundant species

Insectivorous bats are integral components of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite this, a growing number of factors causing world‐wide declines in bat populations have been identified. Relatively abundant species are important for bat conservation because of their role in ecosystems and the research opportunities they offer. In addition, species that have been well‐studied present unique opportunities to synthesize information and highlight important areas of focus for conservation and research. This paper focuses on a well‐studied abundant bat, Eptesicus fuscus. I review the relevant literature on habitat use, diet and roost selection by E. fuscus in North America, and highlight important areas of conservation and research for this species, including the effects of roost disturbance, control of economically important insect pests, exposure to pesticides, long‐term monitoring of populations, and the potential consequences of expanding populations. These issues have broad implications for other species and can be used to focus future research and conservation efforts.     

Partial migration in expanding red deer populations at northern latitudes – a role for density dependence?

Partial migration is common in ungulates living in highly seasonal environments. Typically, at higher latitudes, this involves movement between high elevation summer areas used during breeding and lowland areas with less snow used during winter. Snow depth is regarded the main cause of migration to low elevation, but it is less clear why deer migrate to high elevation in spring. The forage maturation hypothesis explains the upward migration due to plant phenology. We here present also an alternative and non‐exclusive hypothesis, that deer migrate uphill in summer to escape competition due to the high density in winter areas (the competition avoidance hypothesis). We also suggest that social fences may play a role at high population density. Based on a unique study of 141 GPS‐marked red deer from seven regions covering the main distribution in Norway, we found that the proportion of migrants in the populations varied from 38% to 100%. Migration was more common in areas with a diverse topography, i.e. for areas with access to high elevation. Further, we found evidence that migration was negatively density dependent, and that fall migration was delayed at high density. We suggest that a combination of avoidance of competition in high density winter ranges, social fencing during summer in addition to the forage maturation and predation risk avoidance hypotheses, is needed to explain migration patterns of northern ungulates.     

The need for integrative approaches to understand and conserve migratory ungulates

Over the last two centuries overhunting, anthropogenic barriers and habitat loss have disrupted many ungulate migrations. We review the literature on ungulate migration disruptions and find that for many species the disruption of migratory routes causes a rapid population collapse. Previous research has focused on the proximal ecological factors that might favour migration, particularly spatiotemporal variation in resources and predation. However, this does not provide an adequate basis for understanding and mitigating anthropogenic effects on migratory populations. Migration is a complex behaviour and we advocate an integrative approach that incorporates population dynamics, evolution, genetics, behaviour and physiology, and that borrows insights and approaches from research on other taxa. We draw upon research on avian migration to illustrate research approaches that might also be fruitful in ungulates. In particular, we suggest that the migratory cycle should be evaluated in the context of seasonal population limitation, an approach we highlight with a preliminary demographic perturbation analysis of the Serengeti wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus ) population. We provide suggestions for avenues of future research and highlight areas where we believe rapid progress can be made by applying recent advances in theory, technology and analytical approaches.     

Investigating the feasibility of a passive tracking index for monitoring wildlife in the Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia

In many places in Africa, constraints in human, financial and physical resources are common problems that limit the effectiveness of wildlife researchers and managers. In an attempt to identify a useful tool for monitoring African wildlife populations, we tested a passive tracking index (PTI) methodology on a unique wildlife resource area in the Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia. The methodology had previously proved valuable for monitoring a wide variety of wildlife species, including ungulates and carnivores in North America and Australia. Two ungulates (lesser kudu and dikdik), a carnivore (hyaena), a primate (baboon), and a ground foraging bird (guineafowl) were simultaneously indexed. In addition, single observations were recorded for genet, serval and caracal. The species indexed also represent the broad needs for monitoring wildlife. The mammal species are of economic importance to the region through sport hunting. Two of the species, hyaenas and baboons, potentially conflict with human agricultural interests through depredations on livestock and crop production. Anthrax periodically decimates the wildlife in the Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia, but losses of many species are difficult to observe or quantitatively document. The PTI is a simple‐to‐apply, easy‐to‐calculate means to quantify simultaneously population trends for multiple species, and particularly applicable to sustainable harvest by sport hunting, human–wildlife conflicts, and impacts and recovery from wildlife disease.     

Genetic consequences of population expansions and contractions in the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) since the Late Pleistocene

Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has substantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial–drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi‐aquatic animals, which faced tremendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range‐wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1–0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent‐wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental‐scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present‐day hippopotamus populations are genetically disconnected, probably as a result of the mid‐Holocene aridification and contemporary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah‐adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water‐associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long‐term decline.     

Resource partitioning between ungulate populations in arid environments

Herbivores are major drivers of ecosystem structure, diversity, and function. Resilient ecosystems therefore require viable herbivore populations in a sustainable balance with environmental resource availability. This balance is becoming harder to achieve, with increasingly threatened species reliant on small protected areas in increasingly harsh and unpredictable environments. Arid environments in North Africa exemplify this situation, featuring a biologically distinct species assemblage exposed to extreme and volatile conditions, including habitat loss and climate change‐associated threats. Here, we implement an integrated likelihood approach to relate scimitar‐horned oryx (Oryx dammah) and dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas) density, via dung distance sampling, to habitat, predator, and geographic correlates in Dghoumes National Park, Tunisia. We show how two threatened sympatric ungulates partition resources on the habitat axis, exhibiting nonuniform responses to the same vegetation gradient. Scimitar‐horned oryx were positively associated with plant species richness, selecting for vegetated ephemeral watercourses (wadis) dominated by herbaceous cover. Conversely, dorcas gazelle were negatively associated with vegetation density (herbaceous height, litter cover, and herbaceous cover), selecting instead for rocky plains with sparse vegetation. We suggest that adequate plant species richness should be a prerequisite for areas proposed for future ungulate reintroductions in arid and semi‐arid environments. This evidence will inform adaptive management of reintroduced ungulates in protected environments, helping managers and planners design sustainable ecosystems and effective conservation programs.     

Human impact on wildlife populations within a protected Central African forest

This paper addresses the effect of human activities on the density of large mammals in the Dzanga‐Ndoki National Park and the adjacent Dzanga‐Sangha Reserve in the Central African Republic. Between six and eight 20 km long permanent transects were walked on a monthly basis from January 1997 to August 1999 to assess large mammal populations as well as human intrusion. There were no obvious seasonal or monthly trends in elephant, gorilla or non‐human primate densities. Overall, it appears that human activities negatively influence the distribution of most of the large forest animals in Dzanga‐Sangha. Elephants in particular were significantly less common in areas used by humans, but also other species such as non‐human primates showed lower densities closer to the main road and the town of Bayanga. This study confirms the findings of previous studies that roads have a negative impact on wildlife populations. Results of this study stress the need for conservation of large uninterrupted forest blocks to maintain wildlife populations at normal levels. Simply creating roads, even within a protected Central African forest, is likely to have negative impacts on wildlife populations.     

Can small wildlife conservancies maintain genetically stable populations of large mammals? Evidence for increased genetic drift in geographically restricted populations of Cape buffalo in East Africa

The Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) is one of the dominant and most widespread herbivores in sub‐Saharan Africa. High levels of genetic diversity and exceptionally low levels of population differentiation have been found in the Cape buffalo compared to other African savannah ungulates. Patterns of genetic variation reveal large effective population sizes and indicate that Cape buffalos have historically been interbreeding across considerable distances. Throughout much of its range, the Cape buffalo is now largely confined to protected areas due to habitat fragmentation and increasing human population densities, possibly resulting in genetic erosion. Ten buffalo populations in Kenya and Uganda were examined using seventeen microsatellite markers to assess the regional genetic structure and the effect of protected area size on measures of genetic diversity. Two nested levels of genetic structure were identified: a higher level partitioning populations into two clusters separated by the Victoria Nile and a lower level distinguishing seven genetic clusters, each defined by one or two study populations. Although relatively small geographic distances separate most of the study populations, the level of genetic differentiation found here is comparable to that among pan‐African populations. Overall, correlations between conservancy area and indices of genetic diversity suggest buffalo populations inhabiting small parks are showing signs of genetic erosion, stressing the need for more active management of such populations. Our findings raise concerns about the future of other African savannah ungulates with lower population sizes and inferior dispersal capabilities compared with the buffalo.     

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.     

Identifying evolutionarily significant units for conservation of the endangered Malus sieversii using genome‐wide RADseq data

Malus sieversii, a wild progenitor of the domesticated apple, is an endangered species and is assigned second conservation priority by the China Plant Red Data Book. It is urgent to carry out in situ conservation of this species, but previous studies have not identified evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) for conservation management. In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity and relationships of six M. sieversii populations from China using integrated analysis of microsatellite (nSSR) data, genome‐wide SNPs and previous results in order to propose a reasonable conservation management. The results showed that levels of genetic diversity were inconsistently reflected by our nSSR and previous studies, suggesting that indices of genetic diversity are not effective to identify priority conservation areas for M. sieversii. Based on the selection criteria of ESUs for endangered species conservation, ESUs should reflect lineage divergence, geographical separation and different adaptive variation. Our phylogenetic tree based on genome‐wide SNPs yielded a clear relationship of divergent lineages among M. sieversii populations, leading to new different from those of previous studies. Three independent lineages, including the pairs of populations Huocheng‐Yining, Gongliu‐Xinyuan and Tuoli‐Emin, were identified. The geographic distances between populations among the different phylogenetic lineages were much greater than those within the same phylogenetic lineage. A cluster analysis on environmental variables showed that the three independent lineages inhabit different environmental conditions, suggesting that they may have adapted to different environments. Based on the results, we propose that three independent ESUs should be recognized as conservation units for M. sieversii in China.     

Resource-based habitat definition, niche overlap and conservation of two sympatric glacial relict butterflies

The precise knowledge of ecological resources and conditions required by species threatened by rapidly changing environmental conditions is of prime importance for conservation biology. Transferability of this knowledge between species with similar ecological requirements is often assumed, but rarely tested. This is especially the case for glacial relict populations confined to climate‐habitat traps from where they cannot move to rejoin areas with suitable environmental conditions. Using two glacial relict butterflies as model organisms, we first quantitatively define larval and adult resource‐based habitat use of each species. Secondly, we test the transferability of ecological profiles (both habitat and ecological niche) between these two species that share both the same biotope and the same host plant. Our results show that both species have markedly different ecological requirements relating to differences in life history and behavioural traits (i.e. egg‐laying strategies and mate‐locating behaviour). Although the two species share many ecological features, they use different functional habitats within our study site. The high degree of interspecific niche overlap should indicate a high interspecific competition. However, we argue that their co‐existence can be explained by the non‐limiting abundance of some resources (e.g. host plants), by the partial separation in time of adult flight periods and by the territorial behaviour of one of the species. We discuss the following general messages: (1) functional habitat of a (threatened) species should be defined in a spatial context corresponding to individual station keeping, and (2) quick diagnosis based on similar ecological requirements may be misleading for the design of reliable conservation and restoration strategies. Detailed mechanistic and quantitative ecological understanding of resource‐use and environmental tolerances across an organism's life cycle is essential for effective conservation in changing environments, like for glacial relict species.     

Genetic analysis shows low levels of hybridization between African wildcats (Felis silvestris lybica) and domestic cats (F. s. catus) in South Africa

Hybridization between domestic and wild animals is a major concern for biodiversity conservation, and as habitats become increasingly fragmented, conserving biodiversity at all levels, including genetic, becomes increasingly important. Except for tropical forests and true deserts, African wildcats occur across the African continent; however, almost no work has been carried out to assess its genetic status and extent of hybridization with domestic cats. For example, in South Africa it has been argued that the long‐term viability of maintaining pure wildcat populations lies in large protected areas only, isolated from human populations. Two of the largest protected areas in Africa, the Kgalagadi Transfrontier and Kruger National Parks, as well as the size of South Africa and range of landscape uses, provide a model situation to assess how habitat fragmentation and heterogeneity influences the genetic purity of African wildcats. Using population genetic and home range data, we examined the genetic purity of African wildcats and their suspected hybrids across South Africa, including areas within and outside of protected areas. Overall, we found African wildcat populations to be genetically relatively pure, but instances of hybridization and a significant relationship between the genetic distinctiveness (purity) of wildcats and human population pressure were evident. The genetically purest African wildcats were found in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, while samples from around Kruger National Park showed cause for concern, especially combined with the substantial human population density along the park's boundary. While African wildcat populations in South Africa generally appear to be genetically pure, with low levels of hybridization, our genetic data do suggest that protected areas may play an important role in maintaining genetic purity by reducing the likelihood of contact with domestic cats. We suggest that approaches such as corridors between protected areas are unlikely to remain effective for wildcat conservation, as the proximity to human settlements around these areas is projected to increase the wild/domestic animal interface. Thus, large, isolated protected areas will become increasingly important for wildcat conservation and efforts need to be made to prevent introduction of domestic cats into these areas.     

Demographic effects of large, introduced herbivores on a long-lived endemic plant

The introduction of alien ungulates is a major threat for the survival of endangered plants, especially in island ecosystems. However, very few studies have investigated the potential damage of large herbivores on plant diversity in Mediterranean protected areas. In this study, we describe the population structure and the long-term dynamics of the main populations of the Sardinian narrow endemic Centaurea horrida Bad. (Asteraceae), by means of permanent plots where individual plants were tagged and monitored through 6?years (2004?C2009). We monitored this endangered plant at three sites: two were protected areas where introduced and feral ungulates are present, and the other one was a non-protected site without introduced ungulates. We found that adults and saplings were more abundant at the non-protected site. Through matrix models, we also highlighted that the non-protected population showed the highest population growth rate. Finally, by means of an exclusion experiment for ungulates at one protected site, we demonstrated that herbivores had a negative effect on the survival of seedlings and adult plants, and reduced the stochastic population growth rate. An LTRE analysis showed that differences in the survival, especially of adult individuals, had the highest responsibility in explaining the higher population growth rate when herbivores are excluded. Our study constitutes a clear example on how the protection of alien large herbivores can have opposite effects on the conservation of an endangered plant. Some management options are proposed, and the urgent need of manipulative experiments on species-specific interactions between protected plants and alien herbivore species is invoked.     

Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall?

Cyclic population dynamics is relatively common among populations of small mammals in high latitudes but is not yet established among African savanna ungulates. However, oscillations may be expected in large mammal populations subject to quasi‐periodic oscillations in regional rainfall. We evaluated evidence for environmentally entrained oscillations in a large‐mammal predator–prey system in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, where rainfall exhibits quasi‐periodic oscillations. The evaluation is based on analysis of comparative changes in the abundance of twelve ungulate species throughout South Africa's KNP using population counts over the period 1965–1996. We present evidence suggesting that (i) twelve ungulate populations display cyclic variability with half‐periods ranging between 10 and 18 years, (ii) this variability was associated with lagged rainfall between 3 and 10 years back in the past for different ungulate species, and (iii) the ungulate species respond in contrasting ways to rainfall, with some reaching highest abundance during periods of low rainfall and others under conditions of high rainfall. These findings are not consistent with the response pattern we would expect if the population oscillations were driven directly by the rainfall influence on food availability. Instead they seem to be an outcome of predator–prey interactions, which are entrained by the effect of rainfall on habitat conditions affecting the relative susceptibility of the different ungulate species to predation.     

Standardizing the double-observer survey method for estimating mountain ungulate prey of the endangered snow leopard

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.     

Wildlife harvesting guidelines for community-based wildlife management: a southern African perspective

African wildlife populations and their habitats are dwindling outside ofstate-protected areas due to escalating human demands on natural resources,while the effective enforcement of conservation legislation is impracticableacross most of the continent. A particular conservation crisis is looming insouthern Africa, where extensive wildlife areas are rapidly giving way tosubsistence agropastoralism. The concept of community-based wildlife management(CBWM) has been embraced by donor agencies as a hopeful solution in areas whereadequate wildlife resources persist and agricultural potential is marginal. Theconservation value of CBWM depends, however, on communities having specificinformation to evaluate the sustainable benefits of wildlife in comparison withalternative landuse options. Furthermore, simple but scientifically soundmonitoring procedures are required to ensure that the offtake from wildlifepopulations is kept within sustainable limits. This paper draws together keyecological issues of relevance to CBWM in southern African savannas andidentifies topics requiring further attention from ecologists. The aim is toassist conservation and development agencies in providing prompt and appropriatetechnical support to communities in areas where opportunities for CBWM stillexist but could soon be foreclosed.     

Responses of an endangered brown bear population to climate change based on predictable food resource and shelter alterations

The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%–30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free‐ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes.