Post‐glacial migration lag restricts range filling of plants in the European Alps

Aim To evaluate the effect of post‐glacial migration lags on the current distribution of Alpine plants and the factors responsible for possible range‐filling differences among species. Location Austrian Alps. Methods We used species distribution models to predict environmentally suitable sites for 183 Alpine plants at a fine spatial resolution (100 × 100 m²). We overlaid these predictions with independent mapping data (3′× 5′) and calculated the extent to which species fill their potential ranges at this coarser grain based on several different approaches. Moreover, we correlated range‐filling estimates with the magnitude of improvement of distribution models when using the distance to putative glacial refugia as an additional independent variable. Finally, we compared species‐specific range‐filling estimates with traits related to dispersal capacity and competitive ability of these species as well as with characteristics of their habitats. Results Even under a conservative approach, incomplete range filling appears common, with 46% and 31% of the species studied occurring in less than 75% and 50% of their predicted suitable ranges, respectively. Proximity to glacial refugia generally accounts for a lower percentage of the deviance in species distribution data (0–20%, mean 4%) than environmental variables (9–57%, mean 27%). However, its importance correlates closely and negatively with the calculated range‐filling estimates. Range filling significantly increases with the dispersal capacity of a species' propagules and the breadth of its altitudinal niche. Calcicolous species have lower range filling than silicicolous plants and substrate generalists. Conclusions Our results suggest that the current ranges of many Alpine plants are still shaped by delayed Holocene recolonization of suitable sites. Hence, long‐term migration lags also affect plant distribution in mountainous areas, at least on regional scales. These findings question whether high mountain floras will be able to track the expected rapid, climate change driven shifts in habitat.     

High genetic differentiation in the alpine plant Campanula alpina Jacq. (Campanulaceae): evidence for glacial survival in several Carpathian regions and long-term isolation between the Carpathians and the Alps

A survey of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) variation was conducted to elucidate the phylogeography of Campanula alpina , a key species of silicicolous alpine grasslands in the Carpathians with a disjunct distribution in the Eastern European Alps. The Carpathians experienced a different glacial history from the Alps: local glaciers were present only in the highest massifs, while alpine habitats extended over larger areas related to their present distribution in this region. We asked: (i) whether in the Carpathians a high-mountain plant exhibits a complex phylogeographical structure or rather signatures of recent migrations, and (ii) whether the disjunct part of the species' distribution in the Alps resulted from a recent colonization from the Carpathians or from a restricted expansion from separate Eastern Alpine refugia. Our study revealed a clear phylogeographical pattern in AFLPs supported by congruent groups of distinct cpDNA haplotypes. Highest genetic differentiation was observed between the Alps and the Carpathians, indicating a long-term isolation between populations from these two mountain ranges. Further genetic division within the Carpathians suggests that current species' distribution is composed of several groups which have been isolated from each other for a long period. One genetic break separates Western from Southeastern Carpathian material, which is in line with a classical biogeographical boundary. A further, strongly supported genetic group was identified at the southwestern edge of the Carpathian arch. In the Eastern Alps, genetic traces of glacial survival in separate refugial areas in the calcareous northern part and the siliceous central part were found.     

Evolutionary history of the European whitefish Coregonus lavaretus (L.) species complex as inferred from mtDNA phylogeography and gill-raker numbers

We compared mitochondrial DNA and gill-raker number variation in populations of the European whitefish Coregonus lavaretus (L.) species complex to illuminate their evolutionary history, and discuss mechanisms behind diversification. Using single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) and sequencing 528 bp of combined parts of the cytochrome oxidase b (cyt b) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 3 (ND3) mithochondrial DNA (mtDNA) regions, we documented phylogeographic relationships among populations and phylogeny of mtDNA haplotypes. Demographic events behind geographical distribution of haplotypes were inferred using nested clade analysis (NCA) and mismatch distribution. Concordance between operational taxonomical groups, based on gill-raker numbers, and mtDNA patterns was tested. Three major mtDNA clades were resolved in Europe: a North European clade from northwest Russia to Denmark, a Siberian clade from the Arctic Sea to southwest Norway, and a South European clade from Denmark to the European Alps, reflecting occupation in different glacial refugia. Demographic events inferred from NCA were isolation by distance, range expansion, and fragmentation. Mismatch analysis suggested that clades which colonized Fennoscandia and the Alps expanded in population size 24 500-5800 years before present, with minute female effective population sizes, implying small founder populations during colonization. Gill-raker counts did not commensurate with hierarchical mtDNA clades, and poorly with haplotypes, suggesting recent origin of gill-raker variation. Whitefish designations based on gill-raker numbers were not associated with ancient clades. Lack of congruence in morphology and evolutionary lineages implies that the taxonomy of this species complex should be reconsidered.     

Phylogeography of a subalpine tall‐herb Ranunculus platanifolius (Ranunculaceae) reveals two main genetic lineages in the European mountains

A phylogeographical analysis of Ranunculus platanifolius, a typical European subalpine tall‐herb species, indicates the existence of two main genetic lineages based on amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. One group comprises populations from the Balkan Peninsula and the south‐eastern Carpathians and the other includes the remaining part of the range of the species, encompassing the western Carpathians, Sudetes, Alps, Pyrenees and Scandinavia. The main phylogeographical break observed in this species runs across the Carpathians and separates the main parts of this range (western and south‐eastern Carpathians), supporting a distinct glacial history of populations in these areas. The high genetic similarity of the Balkan Peninsula and south‐eastern Carpathian populations could indicate a common glacial refugium for these contemporarily isolated areas of species distribution. The western and northern part of the species range displays an additional weak differentiation into regional phylogeographical groups, which could have been shaped by isolation in glacial refugia or even by a postglacial isolation. The observed weak phylogeographical structure could also be linked with ecological requirements, allowing survival along streams in relatively low, forested mountain ranges. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Southern isolation and northern long‐distance dispersal shaped the phylogeography of the widespread,but highly disjunct,European high mountain plant Artemisia eriantha (Asteraceae)

We investigated the range dynamics of Artemisia eriantha, a widespread, but rare, mountain plant with a highly disjunct distribution in the European Alpine System. We focused on testing the roles of vicariance and long‐distance dispersal in shaping the current distribution of the species. To this end, we collected AFLP and plastid DNA sequence data for 17 populations covering the entire distributional range of the species. Strong phylogeographical structure was found in both datasets. AFLP data suggested that almost all populations were genetically strongly differentiated, with 58% of the overall genetic variation partitioned among populations. Bayesian clustering identified five groups of populations: Balkans, Pyrenees, Central Apennines, one southwestern Alpine population and a Widespread cluster (eastern Pyrenees, Alps, Carpathians). Major groups were supported by neighbor‐joining and NeighbourNet analyses. Fourteen plastid haplotypes were found constituting five strongly distinct lineages: Alps plus Pyrenees, Apennines, Balkans, southern Carpathians, and a Widespread group (eastern Pyrenees, northern Carpathians, Mt. Olympus). Plastid DNA data suggested that A. eriantha colonized the European Alpine System in a westward direction. Although, in southern Europe, vicariant differentiation among the Iberian, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas predominated, thus highlighting their importance as glacial refugia for alpine species, in temperate mountain ranges, long‐distance dispersal prevailed. This study emphasizes that currently highly disjunct distributions can be shaped by both vicariance and long‐distance dispersal, although their relative importance may be geographically structured along, for instance, latitude, as in A. eriantha. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 174 , 214–226.     

Glacial refugia,recolonization patterns and diversification forces in Alpine‐endemic Megabunus harvestmen

The Pleistocene climatic fluctuations had a huge impact on all life forms, and various hypotheses regarding the survival of organisms during glacial periods have been postulated. In the European Alps, evidence has been found in support of refugia outside the ice shield (massifs de refuge) acting as sources for postglacial recolonization of inner‐Alpine areas. In contrast, evidence for survival on nunataks, ice‐free areas above the glacier, remains scarce. Here, we combine multivariate genetic analyses with ecological niche models (ENMs) through multiple timescales to elucidate the history of Alpine Megabunus harvestmen throughout the ice ages, a genus that comprises eight high‐altitude endemics. ENMs suggest two types of refugia throughout the last glacial maximum, inner‐Alpine survival on nunataks for four species and peripheral refugia for further four species. In some geographic regions, the patterns of genetic variation are consistent with long‐distance dispersal out of massifs de refuge, repeatedly coupled with geographic parthenogenesis. In other regions, long‐term persistence in nunataks may dominate the patterns of genetic divergence. Overall, our results suggest that glacial cycles contributed to allopatric diversification in Alpine Megabunus, both within and at the margins of the ice shield. These findings exemplify the power of ENM projections coupled with genetic analyses to identify hypotheses about the position and the number of glacial refugia and thus to evaluate the role of Pleistocene glaciations in driving species‐specific responses of recolonization or persistence that may have contributed to observed patterns of biodiversity.     

Tree recruitment of European tree species at their current upper elevational limits in the Swiss Alps

Aim The physical and physiological mechanisms that determine tree‐line position are reasonably well understood, but explanations for tree species‐specific upper elevational limits below the tree line are still lacking. In addition, once these uppermost positions have been identified, questions arise over whether they reflect past expansion events or active ongoing recruitment or even upslope migration. The aims of this study were: (1) to assess current tree recruitment near the cold‐temperature limit of 10 major European tree species in the Swiss Alps, and (2) to rank species by the extent that their seedlings and saplings exceed the elevational limit of adult trees, possibly reflecting effects of the recent climate warming. Location Western and eastern Alps of Switzerland. Methods For each species, occurrences were recorded along six elevational transects according to three size classes from seedlings to adult trees in 25‐m‐elevation steps above and below their regional upper elevational limit. Two methods were used to compare upper elevational limits between seedlings, saplings and adults within species. First, we focused on the uppermost occurrence observed in each life stage for a given species within each studied region; and second, we predicted their upper distribution range using polynomial models fitted to presence/absence data. Results Species exhibited a clear ranking in their elevational limit. Regional differences in species limits (western versus eastern Swiss Alps) could largely be attributed to regional differences in temperature. Observed and predicted limits of each life stage showed that all species were represented by young individuals in the vicinity of the limit of adult trees. Moreover, tree recruitment of both seedlings and saplings was detected and predicted significantly beyond adult tree limits in most of the species. Across regions, seedlings and saplings were on average found at elevations 73 m higher than adult trees. Main conclusions Under current conditions, neither seed dispersal nor seedling establishment constitutes a serious limitation of recruitment at the upper elevational limits of major European trees. The recruits found beyond the adult limits demonstrate the potential for an upward migration of trees in the Alps in response to ongoing climate warming.     

Is the incidence of survival in interior Pleistocene refugia (nunataks) underestimated? Phylogeography of the high mountain plant Androsace alpina (Primulaceae) in the European Alps revisited

Temperate mountain ranges such as the European Alps have been strongly affected by the Pleistocene glaciations. Glacial advances forced biota into refugia, which were situated either at the periphery of mountain ranges or in their interior. Whereas in the Alps peripheral refugia have been repeatedly and congruently identified, support for the latter scenario, termed “nunatak hypothesis,” is still limited and no general pattern is recognizable yet. Here, we test the hypothesis of nunatak survival for species growing in the high alpine to subnival zones on siliceous substrate using the cushion plant Androsace alpina (Primulaceae), endemic to the European Alps, as our model species. To this end, we analyzed AFLP and plastid DNA sequence data obtained from a dense and range‐wide sampling. Both AFLPs and plastid sequence data identified the southwestern‐most population as the most divergent one. AFLP data did not allow for discrimination of interior and peripheral populations, but rather identified two to three longitudinally separated major gene pools. In contrast, in the eastern half of the Alps several plastid haplotypes of regional or local distribution in interior ranges—the Alpine periphery mostly harbored a widespread haplotype—were indicative for the presence of interior refugia. Together with evidence from other Alpine plant species, this study shows that in the eastern Alps silicicolous species of open habitats in the alpine and subnival zone survived, also or exclusively so, in interior refugia. As the corresponding genetic structure may be lost in mostly nuclear‐derived, rapidly homogenizing marker systems such as AFLPs or RAD sequencing tags, markers not prone to homogenization, as is the case for plastid sequences (Sanger‐sequenced or extracted from an NGS data set) will continue to be important for detecting older, biogeographically relevant patterns.     

Contrasting patterns and mechanisms of spatial turnover for native and exotic freshwater fish in Europe

Aim We compare the distribution patterns of native and exotic freshwater fish in Europe, and test whether the same mechanisms (environmental filtering and/or dispersal limitation) govern patterns of decrease in similarity of native and exotic species composition over geographical distance (spatial species turnover). Locations Major river basins of Europe. Methods Data related to geography, habitat diversity, regional climate and species composition of native and exotic freshwater fish were collated for 26 major European river basins. We explored the degree of nestedness in native and exotic species composition, and quantified compositional similarity between river basins according to the beta‐sim (independent of richness gradient) and Jaccard (dependent of richness gradient) indices of similarity. Multiple regression on distance matrices and variation‐partitioning approaches were used to quantify the relative roles of environmental filtering and dispersal limitation in shaping patterns of decreasing compositional similarity over geographical distance. Results Native and exotic species exhibited significant nested patterns of species composition, indicating that differences in fish species composition between river basins are primarily the result of species loss, rather than species replacement. Both native and exotic compositional similarity decreased significantly with increasing geographical distance between river basins. However, gradual changes in species composition with geographical distance were found only for exotic species. In addition, exotic species displayed a higher rate of similarity decay (higher species turnover rate) with geographical distance, compared with native species. Lastly, the majority of explained variation in exotic compositional similarity was uniquely related to geography, whereas native compositional similarity was either uniquely explained by geography or jointly explained by environment and geography. Main conclusions Our study suggests that large‐scale patterns of spatial turnover for exotic freshwater fish in Europe are generated by human‐mediated dispersal limitation, whereas patterns of spatial turnover for native fish result from both dispersal limitation relative to historical events (isolation by mountain ranges, glacial history) and environmental filtering.     

Mountain roads shift native and non‐native plant species' ranges

Roads are known to act as corridors for dispersal of plant species. With their variable microclimate, role as corridors for species movement and reoccurring disturbance events, they show several characteristics that might influence range dynamics of both native and non‐native species. Previous research on plant species ranges in mountains however seldom included the effects of roads. To study how ranges of native and non‐native species differ between roads and adjacent vegetation, we used a global dataset of plant species composition along mountain roads. We compared average elevation and range width of species, and used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to compile their range optimum and amplitude. We then explored differences between roadside and adjacent plots based on a species’ origin (native vs non‐native) and nitrogen and temperature affinity. Most non‐native species had on average higher elevational ranges and broader amplitudes in roadsides. Higher optima for non‐native species were associated with high nitrogen and temperature affinity. While lowland native species showed patterns comparable to those in non‐native species, highland native species had significantly lower elevational ranges in roadsides compared to the adjacent vegetation. We conclude that roadsides indeed change the elevational ranges of a variety of species. These changes are not limited to the expansion of non‐native species along mountain roads, but also include both upward and downward changes in ranges of native species. Roadsides may thus facilitate upward range shifts, for instance related to climate change, and they could serve as corridors to facilitate migration of alpine species between adjacent high‐elevation areas. We recommend including the effects of mountain roads in species distribution models to fine‐tune the predictions of range changes in a warming climate.     

Contrasting phylogeographies inferred for the two alpine sister species Cardamine resedifolia and C. alpina (Brassicaceae)

Aim We use Cardamine alpina and C. resedifolia as models to address the detailed history of disjunctions in the European alpine system. These species grow on siliceous bedrock: C. alpina in the Alps and Pyrenees, and C. resedifolia in several mountain ranges from the Sierra Nevada to the Balkans. We explore differentiation among their disjunct populations as well as within the contiguous Alpine and Pyrenean ranges, and compare the phylogeographical histories of these diploid sister species. We also include samples of the closely related, arctic diploid C. bellidifolia in order to explore its origin and post‐glacial establishment. Location European alpine system, Norway and Iceland. Methods We employed amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). AFLP data were analysed using principal coordinates analysis, neighbour joining and Bayesian clustering, and measures of diversity and differentiation were computed. Results For the snow‐bed species C. alpina (27 populations, 203 plants) we resolved two strongly divergent lineages, corresponding to the Alps and the Pyrenees. Although multiple glacial refugia were invoked in the Pyrenees, we inferred only a single one in the Maritime Alps – from which rapid post‐glacial colonization of the entire Alps occurred, accompanied by a strong founder effect. For C. resedifolia (33 populations, 247 plants), which has a broader ecological amplitude and a wider distribution, the genetic structuring was rather weak and did not correspond to the main geographical disjunctions. This species consists of two widespread and largely sympatric main genetic groups (one of them subdivided into four geographically more restricted groups), and frequent secondary contacts exist between them. Main conclusions The conspicuously different histories of these two sister species are likely to be associated with their different ecologies. The more abundant habitats available for C. resedifolia may have increased the probability of its gradual migration during colder periods and also of successful establishment after long‐distance dispersal, whereas C. alpina has been restricted by its dependence on snow‐beds. Surprisingly, the arctic C. bellidifolia formed a very divergent lineage with little variation, contradicting a scenario of recent, post‐glacial migration from the Alps or Pyrenees.     

Disjunct distributions during glacial and interglacial periods in mountain butterflies: Erebia epiphron as an example

Over several decades, the distribution patterns and evolution of alpine disjunct species has become an increasingly discussed subject. Large scale genetic analysis has allowed the resolution of the past range changes and intraspecific evolution of many species, in Europe especially of Mediterranean origin. However, the phylogeographic structures of species with arctic-alpine disjunct distribution patterns are relatively poorly studied. The existing phylogeographic analysis (mostly of alpine plant species) supports disjunct distributions during glacial as well as post-glacial periods for a number of species. However, several questions still remain unresolved and we therefore analysed the Mountain Ringlet Erebia epiphron as a model for such alpine disjunct species. We found strong differentiation into five different lineages supporting five differentiation centres: (i) the eastern Pyrenees, (ii) the mountain ranges between the central Pyrenees and south-western Alps, (iii, iv) two areas along the southern Alps margin and (v) the northern Alps margin. We propose that these patterns evolved due to the humidity requirements of this species, which did not allow survival in the dry glacial steppes, but along the margins of the wetter glaciated high mountain ranges.     

Climate oscillations and species interactions: large‐scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host plant as a case study. Location The Alps. Methods We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host‐plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice‐based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions Species‐specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited the opportunities for co‐evolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at a large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host dependence of the beetle, which locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.     

Does vicariance shape biotas? Biogeographical tests of the vicariance model in the north‐west European land snail fauna

Aim To investigate the importance of vicariance in shaping the north‐west European land snail fauna. Location North‐west Europe. Methods We tested whether there is a non‐random congruence, i.e. a clustering of species ranges, using a Monte Carlo procedure with a null model that generates range data sets such that their range size distribution, the species richness distribution of the geographic cells and the spatial autocorrelation of the occurrences of a taxon approach the parameters in the real data set. Biotic elements, groups of species with similar ranges, were delimited with Model based Gaussian clustering. The prediction that closely related species belong to different biotic elements, has been tested with a chi‐square test. Results The distribution areas of the north‐west European land snail species are significantly clustered as predicted by the vicariance model. One widespread and seven regional biotic elements were identified. Contrary to the predictions of the vicariance model, closely related north‐west European land snail species belong significantly more often to the same biotic element than should be expected by chance. Main conclusions The clustering of closely related north‐west European land snail species within the same biotic element indicates that speciation modes other than vicariance were frequent or that the imprint of vicariance on the ranges was obscured by extensive post‐speciational dispersal. Extensive dispersal may have been caused by Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. The core areas of the regionally restricted biotic elements might indicate the positions of glacial refugia of land snails.     

Regional variation in the historical components of global avian species richness

Aim Using a global data base of the distribution of extant bird species, we examine the evidence for spatial variation in the evolutionary origins of contemporary avian diversity. In particular, we assess the possible role of the timing of mountain uplift in promoting diversification in different regions. Location Global. Methods We mapped the distribution of avian richness at four taxonomic levels on an equal‐area 1° grid. We examined the relationships between richness at successive taxonomic levels (e.g. species richness vs. genus richness). We mapped the residuals from linear regressions of these relationships to identify areas that are exceptional in the number of lower taxa relative to the number of higher taxa. We use generalized least squares models to test the influence of elevation range and temperature on lower‐taxon richness relative to higher‐taxon richness. Results Peaks of species richness in the Neotropics were congruent with patterns of generic richness, whilst peaks in Australia and the Himalayas were congruent with patterns of both genus and family richness. Hotspots in the Afrotropics did not reflect higher‐taxon patterns. Regional differences in the relationship between richness at successive taxonomic levels revealed variation in patterns of taxon co‐occurrence. Species and genus co‐occurrence was positively associated with elevational range across much of the world. Taxon occurrence in the Neotropics was associated with a positive interaction between elevational range and temperature. Conclusions These results demonstrate that contemporary patterns of richness show different associations with higher‐taxon richness in different regions, which implies that the timing of historical effects on these contemporary patterns varies across regions. We suggest that this is due to dispersal limitation and phylogenetic constraints on physiological tolerance limits promoting diversification. We speculate that diversification rates respond to long‐term changes in the Earth's topography, and that the role of tropical mountain ranges is implicated as a correlate of contemporary diversity, and a source of diversification across avian evolutionary history.     

A weak upward elevational shift in the distributions of breeding birds in the Italian Alps

Aim To test whether bird assemblages are shifting upwards in their elevational distribution in synchrony with current climate warming and/or habitat changes. Location A gradient of elevation in the Italian Alps (Alta Valsessera, Piedmont). Methods We used data from two recent atlas surveys performed on a 1 × 1 km grid at an 11‐year interval (1992–94 and 2003–05). We modelled the elevational gradient of avifaunal composition, using a sample‐based approach, in an effort to detect evidence for an upward elevational shift of bird zonation. Changes in species richness were controlled for. The results from this analysis were compared with those obtained using a species‐based approach. Changes in climate and landscape between the two surveys were assessed using local meteorological data and Corine Land Cover maps, respectively. Results We detected small avifaunal changes between the two surveys: (1) mean elevations increased for the majority of species, but the average change was not significantly different from zero; (2) the species richness increased, but this was mainly due to an increase in sampling effort; and (3) a change in species composition was detected, which was at the limit of significance and corresponded on average to a 29‐m upward elevational shift in the distribution of the avifauna. The shift was the same for open land and forest bird communities. During the same period, the mean temperature increased by c. 1 °C in the area, and a slight trend towards vegetation closure by woody plants was detected. Main conclusions The use of fine‐scale breeding bird atlases in mountainous regions, together with ordination methods, provides a sensitive tool to test and measure elevational shifts in species ranges, but the results have to be interpreted carefully. In our case, the observed elevational shift in the distributions of the avifauna cannot unambiguously be attributed to climate warming. This shift is smaller than expected from the regional increase in temperature, which raises the question of how closely bird distributions match climate change.     

Holocene re‐colonisation,central–marginal distribution and habitat specialisation shape population genetic patterns within an Atlantic European grass species

Corynephorus canescens (L.) P.Beauv. is an outbreeding, short‐lived and wind‐dispersed grass species, highly specialised on scattered and disturbance‐dependent habitats of open sandy sites. Its distribution ranges from the Iberian Peninsula over Atlantic regions of Western and Central Europe, but excludes the two other classical European glacial refuge regions on the Apennine and Balkan Peninsulas. To investigate genetic patterns of this uncommon combination of ecological and biogeographic species characteristics, we analysed AFLP variation among 49 populations throughout the European distribution range, expecting (i) patterns of SW European glacial refugia and post‐glacial expansion to the NE; (ii) decreasing genetic diversity from central to marginal populations; and (iii) interacting effects of high gene flow and disturbance‐driven genetic drift. Decreasing genetic diversity from SW to NE and distinct gene pool clustering imply refugia on the Iberian Peninsula and in western France, from where range expansion originated towards the NE. High genetic diversity within and moderate genetic differentiation among populations, and a significant pattern of isolation‐by‐distance indicate a gene flow drift equilibrium within C. canescens, probably due to its restriction to scattered and dynamic habitats and limited dispersal distances. These features, as well as the re‐colonisation history, were found to affect genetic diversity gradients from central to marginal populations. Our study emphasises the need for including the specific ecology into analyses of species (re–)colonisation histories and range centre–margin analyses. To account for discontinuous distributions, new indices of marginality were tested for their suitability in studies of centre–periphery gradients.     

Disentangling biotic interactions,environmental filters,and dispersal limitation as drivers of species co‐occurrence

A key focus in ecology is to search for community assembly rules. Here we compare two community modelling frameworks that integrate a combination of environmental and spatial data to identify positive and negative species associations from presence–absence matrices, and incorporate an additional comparison using joint species distribution models (JSDM). The frameworks use a dichotomous logic tree that distinguishes dispersal limitation, environmental requirements, and interspecific interactions as causes of segregated or aggregated species pairs. The first framework is based on a classical null model analysis complemented by tests of spatial arrangement and environmental characteristics of the sites occupied by the members of each species pair (Classic framework). The second framework, (SDM framework) implemented here for the first time, builds on the application of environmentally‐constrained null models (or JSDMs) to partial out the influence of the environment, and includes an analysis of the geographical configuration of species ranges to account for dispersal effects. We applied these approaches to examine plot‐level species co‐occurrence in plant communities sampled along a wide elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps. According to the frameworks, the majority of species pairs were randomly associated, and most of the non‐random positive and negative species associations could be attributed to environmental filtering and/or dispersal limitation. These patterns were partly detected also with JSDM. Biotic interactions were detected more frequently in the SDM framework, and by JSDM, than in the Classic framework. All approaches detected species aggregation more often than segregation, perhaps reflecting the important role of facilitation in stressful high‐elevation environments. Differences between the frameworks may reflect the explicit incorporation of elevational segregation in the SDM framework and the sensitivity of JSDM to the environmental data. Nevertheless, all methods have the potential to reveal general patterns of species co‐occurrence for different taxa, spatial scales, and environmental conditions.     

Predicting spatial patterns of plant species richness: a comparison of direct macroecological and species stacking modelling approaches

Aim This study compares the direct, macroecological approach (MEM) for modelling species richness (SR) with the more recent approach of stacking predictions from individual species distributions (S‐SDM). We implemented both approaches on the same dataset and discuss their respective theoretical assumptions, strengths and drawbacks. We also tested how both approaches performed in reproducing observed patterns of SR along an elevational gradient. Location Two study areas in the Alps of Switzerland. Methods We implemented MEM by relating the species counts to environmental predictors with statistical models, assuming a Poisson distribution. S‐SDM was implemented by modelling each species distribution individually and then stacking the obtained prediction maps in three different ways – summing binary predictions, summing random draws of binomial trials and summing predicted probabilities – to obtain a final species count. Results The direct MEM approach yields nearly unbiased predictions centred around the observed mean values, but with a lower correlation between predictions and observations, than that achieved by the S‐SDM approaches. This method also cannot provide any information on species identity and, thus, community composition. It does, however, accurately reproduce the hump‐shaped pattern of SR observed along the elevational gradient. The S‐SDM approach summing binary maps can predict individual species and thus communities, but tends to overpredict SR. The two other S‐SDM approaches – the summed binomial trials based on predicted probabilities and summed predicted probabilities – do not overpredict richness, but they predict many competing end points of assembly or they lose the individual species predictions, respectively. Furthermore, all S‐SDM approaches fail to appropriately reproduce the observed hump‐shaped patterns of SR along the elevational gradient. Main conclusions Macroecological approach and S‐SDM have complementary strengths. We suggest that both could be used in combination to obtain better SR predictions by following the suggestion of constraining S‐SDM by MEM predictions.