Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.     

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long‐lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest‐dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate‐induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate‐induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process‐based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid‐ to low‐elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning.     

Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests

In many parts of the world forest disturbance regimes have intensified recently, and future climatic changes are expected to amplify this development further in the coming decades. These changes are increasingly challenging the main objectives of forest ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain the biological diversity of forests. Yet a comprehensive understanding of how disturbances affect these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. We conducted a global literature review on the impact of three of the most important disturbance agents (fire, wind, and bark beetles) on 13 different ecosystem services and three indicators of biodiversity in forests of the boreal, cool‐ and warm‐temperate biomes. Our objectives were to (i) synthesize the effect of natural disturbances on a wide range of possible objectives of forest management, and (ii) investigate standardized effect sizes of disturbance for selected indicators via a quantitative meta‐analysis. We screened a total of 1958 disturbance studies published between 1981 and 2013, and reviewed 478 in detail. We first investigated the overall effect of disturbances on individual ecosystem services and indicators of biodiversity by means of independence tests, and subsequently examined the effect size of disturbances on indicators of carbon storage and biodiversity by means of regression analysis. Additionally, we investigated the effect of commonly used approaches of disturbance management, i.e. salvage logging and prescribed burning. We found that disturbance impacts on ecosystem services are generally negative, an effect that was supported for all categories of ecosystem services, i.e. supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services (P < 0.001). Indicators of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, habitat quality and diversity indices, on the other hand were found to be influenced positively by disturbance (P < 0.001). Our analyses thus reveal a ‘disturbance paradox’, documenting that disturbances can put ecosystem services at risk while simultaneously facilitating biodiversity. A detailed investigation of disturbance effect sizes on carbon storage and biodiversity further underlined these divergent effects of disturbance. While a disturbance event on average causes a decrease in total ecosystem carbon by 38.5% (standardized coefficient for stand‐replacing disturbance), it on average increases overall species richness by 35.6%. Disturbance‐management approaches such as salvage logging and prescribed burning were neither found significantly to mitigate negative effects on ecosystem services nor to enhance positive effects on biodiversity, and thus were not found to alleviate the disturbance paradox. Considering that climate change is expected to intensify natural disturbance regimes, our results indicate that biodiversity will generally benefit from such changes while a sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services might come increasingly under pressure. This underlines that disturbance risk and resilience require increased attention in ecosystem management in the future, and that new approaches to addressing the disturbance paradox in management are needed.     

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co‐occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi‐annual landscape‐wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co‐occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed‐species and age‐heterogeneous forests with good site‐matching tend to be less susceptible to large‐scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved.     

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.     

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species‐specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long‐term (1966–2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests.     

天然林生态系统稳定性与病虫害干扰——调控与被调控

如何评价天然林中原生的昆虫、病原的生态功能是制定病虫害防治措施首先要明确的问题之一。依据天然林生态系统稳定性与病虫害干扰之间关系的最新研究进展,系统阐述了当前有关天然林调控病虫害爆发的多样性-稳定性假说和联合抗性假说,指出联合抗性假说的不确定性以及多样性-稳定性假说的局限性。昆虫、病原在天然林演替过程对系统整体结构、健康、稳定以及可持续性上不但发挥着重要的生态调控功能作用,在有些情况下甚至加速或改变系统的演替途径。这种生物干扰目前在林业发达国家的天然林管理策略中被视为有益的干扰元素,由此提出将模拟自然干扰作为今后天然林管理策略一项指导方针。同时指出我国对此的认识不仅较国外林业发达国家晚,而且在实践中也未能有效地整合在森林生态系统健康管理的实践中,因此这种对天然林生物干扰的新认识有助于未来我国天然林病虫害生态控制治理决策的制定。     

次生林概念与生态干扰度

近一个世纪强烈的人为干扰使世界范围内的原始林面积锐减,次生林已成为中国乃至世界森林资源的主体.虽然在文献与现实中"次生林（Secondary forest）"被广泛使用,但次生林的概念在各个国家,甚至同一国家或地区以及各种不同文献中存在相互矛盾的情况,这给次生林研究与经营实践带来诸多不便;而不准确的次生林定义也为与各个层次的决策制定者及公众之间的交流带来了障碍.本文在查阅大量国内外关于次生林概念文献的基础上,结合近年来关于次生林生态与经营研究实践,综合分析了次生林概念的不确定性,同意以往次生林定义中的基本内涵,并认为：次生林是由于人为破坏性干扰或异常自然干扰使原始林固有的林分结构、物种组成或基本功能发生了显著变化,经过天然更新或人工诱导天然更新恢复形成的林分.但该定义中仍存在着很多不确定性, 如:怎样的干扰为"人为破坏性干扰"和"异常自然干扰";"林分结构、物种组成或基本功能"发生了怎样的变化为"显著变化";"人工诱导天然更新"中"人工"参与的成分比例如何等.次生林概念是在20世纪初由植物演替学家提出,当时未考虑干扰的持续性;而实际上,无论是次生林还是原始林,均是森林生态系统演替过程中的某一状态,在现代森林生态系统研究中,应重新规范"次生林"的概念.考虑到"次生林"定义的不确定性或困难性,建议使用"森林自然度"或"森林生态系统成熟度"或"森林干扰度"来表达现实森林所处的状态,但该方面的研究与实践尚需加强.     

Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe

Natural disturbance regimes are changing substantially in forests around the globe. However, large‐scale disturbance change is modulated by a considerable spatiotemporal variation within biomes. This variation remains incompletely understood particularly in the temperate forests of Europe, for which consistent large‐scale disturbance information is lacking. Here, our aim was to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances across temperate forest landscapes in Europe using remote sensing data and determine their underlying drivers. Specifically, we tested two hypotheses: (1) Topography determines the spatial patterns of disturbance, and (2) climatic extremes synchronize natural disturbances across the biome. We used novel Landsat‐based maps of forest disturbances 1986–2016 in combination with landscape analysis to compare spatial disturbance patterns across five unmanaged forest landscapes with varying topographic complexity. Furthermore, we analyzed annual estimates of disturbances for synchronies and tested the influence of climatic extremes on temporal disturbance patterns. Spatial variation in disturbance patterns was substantial across temperate forest landscapes. With increasing topographic complexity, natural disturbance patches were smaller, more complex in shape, more dispersed, and affected a smaller portion of the landscape. Temporal disturbance patterns, however, were strongly synchronized across all landscapes, with three distinct waves of high disturbance activity between 1986 and 2016. All three waves followed years of pronounced drought and high peak wind speeds. Natural disturbances in temperate forest landscapes of Europe are thus spatially diverse but temporally synchronized. We conclude that the ecological effect of natural disturbances (i.e., whether they are homogenizing a landscape or increasing its heterogeneity) is strongly determined by the topographic template. Furthermore, as the strong biome‐wide synchronization of disturbances was closely linked to climatic extremes, large‐scale disturbance episodes are likely in Europe's temperate forests under climate changes.     

Unraveling environmental drivers of a recent increase in Swiss fungi fruiting

Disentangling biotic and abiotic drivers of wild mushroom fruiting is fraught with difficulties because mycelial growth is hidden belowground, symbiotic and saprotrophic supply strategies may interact, and myco‐ecological observations are often either discontinuous or too short. Here, we compiled and analyzed 115 417 weekly fungal fruit body counts from permanent Swiss inventories between 1975 and 2006. Mushroom fruiting exhibited an average autumnal delay of 12 days after 1991 compared with before, the annual number of fruit bodies increased from 1801 to 5414 and the mean species richness doubled from 10 to 20. Intra‐ and interannual coherency of symbiotic and saprotrophic mushroom fruiting, together with little agreement between mycorrhizal yield and tree growth suggests direct climate controls on fruit body formation of both nutritional modes. Our results contradict a previously reported declining of mushroom harvests and propose rethinking the conceptual role of symbiotic pathways in fungi‐host interaction. Moreover, this conceptual advancement may foster new cross‐disciplinary research avenues, and stimulate questions about possible amplifications of the global carbon cycle, as enhanced fungal production in moist mid‐latitude forests rises carbon cycling and thus increases greenhouse gas exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.     

森林干扰对大兴安岭北部森林小流域径流情势的影响

为了解大兴安岭森林流域水文过程对森林干扰的响应,利用近配对流域方法,排除了气候变量的时空差异,对比研究了森林干扰后大兴安岭北部典型森林小流域(100 km2)洪峰径流(High flow)和枯水径流(Low flow)径流情势(Flow regimes)的变化趋势。结果表明,森林干扰对枯水径流情势影响显著,与对照流域(小北沟流域)相比,森林干扰(占流域总面积的6.74%)使老沟河流域平均枯水径流流量降低了26.58%,平均枯水径流变异系数值增加了36.77%,并且差异达到极显著水平(P0.01)。另一方面,森林植被的干扰相对增加了森林小流域的洪峰流量、历时和变异性,但与对照流域相比差异均未达到统计显著水平,说明小面积的森林植被干扰未能引起流域洪峰径流情势的显著变化。进一步对配对流域的径流浮动系数(Flashiness Index)的分析发现,森林干扰显著增加了森林小流域的径流浮动性,研究时段内干扰流域的径流浮动系数为0.078,是对照流域(0.057)的1.37倍。大兴安岭北部森林小流域的天然径流情势(Natural flow regimes)对森林干扰比较敏感,在与水文循环联系紧密的区域(例如河岸带),小范围的森林干扰便可以引起径流情势的显著变化,这在未来该地区森林和水资源的管理中需要特别注意。     

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics,structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand‐to‐biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand‐level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate‐induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought‐tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.     

Meta-analysis shows forest soil CO2 effluxes are dependent on the disturbance regime and biome type

Forest soil CO₂ efflux (FCO₂) is a crucial process in global carbon cycling; however, how FCO₂ responds to disturbance regimes in different forest biomes is poorly understood. We quantified the effects of disturbance regimes on FCO₂ across boreal, temperate, tropical and Mediterranean forests based on 1240 observations from 380 studies. Globally, climatic perturbations such as elevated CO₂ concentration, warming and increased precipitation increase FCO₂ by 13% to 25%. FCO₂ is increased by forest conversion to grassland and elevated carbon input by forest management practices but reduced by decreased carbon input, fire and acid rain. Disturbance also changes soil temperature and water content, which in turn affect the direction and magnitude of disturbance influences on FCO₂. FCO₂ is disturbance- and biome-type dependent and such effects should be incorporated into earth system models to improve the projection of the feedback between the terrestrial C cycle and climate change.     

Major disturbance events in terrestrial ecosystems detected using global satellite data sets

Ecosystem scientists have yet to develop a proven methodology to monitor and understand major disturbance events and their historical regimes at a global scale. This study was conducted to evaluate patterns in an 18‐year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major ecosystem disturbance events and regimes. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide has been computed at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 1999 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude/longitude. Potential disturbance events of large extent ( > 0.5 Mha) were identified in the FPAR time series by locating anomalously low values (FPAR‐LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 0.5° pixel. We find that nearly 400 Mha of the global land surface could be identified with at least one FPAR‐LO event over the 18‐year time series. The majority of these potential disturbance events occurred in tropical savanna and shrublands or in boreal forest ecosystem classes. Verification of potential disturbance events from our FPAR‐LO analysis was carried out using documented records of the timing of large‐scale wildfires at locations throughout the world. Disturbance regimes were further characterized by association analysis with historical climate anomalies. Assuming accuracy of the FPAR satellite record to characterize major ecosystem disturbance events, we estimate that nearly 9 Pg of carbon could have been lost from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere as a result of large‐scale ecosystem disturbance over this 18‐year time series.