Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

A comprehensive simulation model for sheep blowfly strike due to Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), which builds on previously published versions but also incorporates important new empirical data, is used to explain patterns of lamb and ewe strike recorded on 370 farms in south-west, south-east and central England and Wales. The model is able to explain a significant percentage of the variance in lamb strike incidence in all four regions, and ewe strike in three of the four regions. The model is able to predict the start of seasonal blowfly strike within one week in three of the four regions for both ewes and lambs, and within 3 weeks in the fourth region. It is concluded that the accuracy of the model will allow it to be used to assess the likely efficacy of new control techniques and the effects of changes in existing husbandry practices on strike incidence. The model could also be used to give sheep farmers advance warning of approaching strike problems. However, the ability to forecast future strike patterns is dependent on the accuracy of the weather projections; the more long-term the forecast, the more approximate the prediction is likely to be. When applied on a regional basis, model forecasts indicate expected average patterns of strike incidence and may not therefore be appropriate for individual farmers whose husbandry practices differ substantially from the average.     

Fly abundance and climate as determinants of sheep blowfly strike incidence in southwest England

The relationships between abundance of the blowfly Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), climate, animal management procedures and the incidence of cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) in sheep were examined in three sheep pasture systems in southwest England during the summers of 2002 and 2003. In each year, flies were collected using liver-baited sticky targets, daily weather and routine husbandry practices were noted and the age-class of each animal infested and body position of each strike were recorded. On sites where no strike control was used, 5.8-12.1% of ewes and 5.7-15.8% of lambs were struck. Ewe strikes predominated at the beginning of the season. The incidence of ewe strikes was significantly associated with higher mean temperature, rainfall and shearing; shearing was associated with a 95% reduction in the risk of ewe strike. In lambs, the incidence of strike was significantly related to higher fly abundance, ewe shearing, treatment and mean ambient temperature. Lambs were 4.6 times more likely to be struck after the ewes had been shorn than before; however, the strongest relationship was with mean L. sericata abundance. Average minimum threshold temperatures of 9.5 degrees C for lamb strikes and 8.5 degrees C for all strikes were extrapolated, below which oviposition did not occur. Over 80% of ewe strikes occurred in the breech region in 2002, as did 100% in 2003. However, in lambs both body and breech strikes occurred in both years. The distribution of lamb strikes appeared to change over time, with breech strikes predominating in May, June and July and body strikes occurring increasingly later in the season. The incidence of lamb breech strikes was significantly associated with higher L. sericata abundance and ewe shearing but there was no relationship with weather conditions. By contrast, the risk of body strike in lambs was significantly associated with higher blowfly abundance, higher rainfall and higher maximum temperatures. The relationship between strike incidence and L. sericata abundance is important because it enhances our understanding of strike incidence patterns and management of this disease. Clearly, any factors that facilitate larger L. sericata populations, such as inappropriate carcass burial or increased average ambient temperatures, are likely to increase the incidence of strike.     

The seasonal pattern of sheep blowfly strike in England and Wales

Abstract. Information on 4049 cases of sheep blowfly strike on 495 farms in England and Wales was gathered in a longitudinal survey conducted in 1991. The breech was the most commonly infested area, accounting for 70.9% of all strikes recorded. Body strikes accounted for 19.7% and foot strikes 11.4% of all strikes. Early in the season the incidences of both breech and body strikes were higher in ewes than in lambs, but from June to October lamb strikes predominated. The incidence of foot strike was greater in ewes than lambs throughout the year, with a peak incidence in September. Regional differences in strike incidence were evident; the highest overall incidences were recorded in the southern regions of England where peak incidence occurred earlier in the year. The highest monthly incidence risk was recorded in August in the south-east of England where there were 14.2 strikes per 1000 lambs and 4.0 strikes per 1000 ewes at risk. The importance of faecal soiling and ambient temperature are discussed.     

Population suppression for control of the blowfly Lucilia sericata and sheep blowfly strike

Abstract.

• 1 The control of ovine myiasis by suppression of populations of the blowfly Lucifia sericata was investigated experimentally on three farms in the south-west of England in 1992 and 1993.
• 2 In blind trials, sheep on one farm (control) were given two doses of placebo, on a second two doses of the larvicide cyromazine (Vetrazin®, CibaGeigy), and on a third cyromazine and a subsequent dose of placebo.
• 3 The first treatment was given shortly before the predicted spring emergence of L.sericata and the second shortly before the predicted emergence of the second generation. Previous simulation analysis had identified strategic early-season treatment as the optimum for blowfly population suppression.
• 4 On both treatment farms significantly smaller L.sericata populations were recorded throughout 1992 and the incidence of strike was significantly lower than on the control farm. The results show that appropriate early-season timing of sheep treatment can suppress populations of L.sericata and could be used by farmers to reduce the incidence of blowfly strike.
• 5 The results suggest, however, that the effectiveness of population suppression and strike incidence may have been influenced by immigration into the control areas and by adverse weather, the latter changing the susceptibility of sheep to strike and resulting in rising strike incidence even when L.sericata population densities were low. In practice, therefore, blowfly population suppression should be employed as a component of an integrated strike management programme.

     

Sheep blowfly strike risk and management in Great Britain: a survey of current practice

Abstract.  The methods used for the control of sheep blowfly strike (ovine cutaneous myiasis) and the farm management factors associated with strike prevalence were examined using data from questionnaire survey returns provided by 966 sheep farmers in Great Britain, based on the period between March 2003 and February 2004. Overall, 91% of participants treated prophylactically with insecticides against blowfly strike; 39% treated twice and 11% treated more than three times in the year. Insect growth regulators (IGRs) were the most commonly chosen product (40%), especially the IGR cyromazine. Only 12% of farmers opted to dip their sheep in organophosphate insecticide against fly strike and 2% of farmers reported applying inappropriate products against strike to their sheep, such as ivermectin or 'drenches'. Farmers worming their ewes more often were 0.8 times less likely to report blowfly strike, but those who wormed their lambs more often were 1.2 times more likely to report strike. Pure-breed flocks were 0.7 times less likely to record an outbreak of blowfly strike than cross-breed flocks. Strike was less likely in ewe flocks grazed at higher altitude; however, this relationship with altitude was not seen in lambs. The results show that insecticides remain the primary tool used by almost all farmers to prevent strike and that the type of insecticides used and means of application have altered dramatically over the past 15 years. However, the prevalence of strike has remained almost unchanged over this period. Clearly careful attention to the type and timing of insecticide application, in association with a detailed understanding of the husbandry factors that predispose sheep to higher strike risk, is essential to allow the optimal management of strike problems.     

Modelling the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of disease risk: sheep blowfly strike by Lucilia sericata in Great Britain

Understanding the spatial scale and temporal pattern of disease incidence is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate management and intervention strategies. It is particularly critical, given the need to understand the elevated risks linked to climate change, to allow the most likely changes in the distribution of parasites and disease vectors to be predicted under a range of climate change scenarios. Using statistical models, the spatial distribution and climatic correlates of a range of parasites and diseases have been mapped previously, but their development into dynamic, predictive tools is less common. The aim of the work described here, was to use a species distribution model to characterise the environmental determinants of the monthly occurrence of ovine cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) by Lucilia sericata, the most frequent primary agent of northern European myiasis, and to then use this model to describe the potential spatial changes that might be expected in response to predicted climate change in Great Britain. The model predicts that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios will result in an increase in the risk of strike and an elongated blowfly season. However, even for the most rapid warming scenario predictions over the next 70 years, strike is not predicted to occur throughout the winter. Nevertheless, in this latter case, parts of central and southern England are likely to become too hot and dry for strike by L. sericata, to persist in mid-summer. Under these conditions, it is possible that other, more pathogenic Mediterranean agents of myiasis, such as Wolfhartia magnifica, could potentially replace L. sericata. Where the phenology of strike is altered by climate change, as predicted here, significant changes to the timing and frequency of parasite treatments and husbandry practices, such as shearing, will be required to manage the problem. The results suggest that the modelling approach adopted here could be usefully applied to a range of disease systems.     

Uptake and fate of specific antibody in feeding larvae of the sheep blowfly,Lucilia cuprina

Abstract. The quantity of specific antibody ingested by larvae of Lucilia cuprina and its fate after ingestion were studied in larvae grown on sheep and on an artificial diet. Larvae grown to late first or early second instar on sheep vaccinated with horse myoglobin contained 66% less specific antibody detected by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay than larvae grown to a similar stage on an artificial diet containing 75% serum from the same sheep. A similar result was obtained when larvae were grown to mid-third instar. Larvae grown on sheep to first or second instar contained approximately the same quantity of specific antibody per unit weight of larvae as those grown to third instar. Larvae grown on diet to third instar contained 22% less specific antibody per unit weight than those grown to first or second instar. In larvae grown on diet to late third instar, ingested diet retained 91 ± 12% of its original specific antibody activity in the crop, 50 ± 11% in the anterior midgut, 8 ± 2% in the posterior midgut and 13 ± 6% in the hindgut. The mean concentration of total immunoglobulin detectable in the haemolymph of individual third instar larvae grown on diet was 1.7 ± 2.8 ug/ml. Assays of specific antibody in the haemolymph of similarly reared larvae indicated that all or most of this immunoglobulin remained functional. The implications of the quantities and distribution of ingested functional antibody found in feeding larvae of L.cuprina are discussed in relation to the possibility of vaccinating sheep against these larvae and the selection of likely internal targets as sources of potential protective antigens.     

Sheep blowfly strike: the cost of control in relation to risk

Sheep blowfly strike (ovine cutaneous myiasis) is a widespread economic and welfare problem in sheep husbandry in many parts of the world. Strike incidence is determined by a complex interaction of fly abundance, host susceptibility and climate, combined with farmer husbandry and intervention strategies. Sheep farmers adopt a range of approaches to the type and timing of the management used for the control of blowfly strike, the rational basis for which is often not robust. Here a deterministic model, based on existing data relating to fly abundance, seasonal risk and strike incidence, is used to compare the variable costs associated with different strike management strategies. The model shows that not employing prophylactic treatment is the lowest cost strategy only where strike risk is low. In all other circumstances, prophylactic treatment incurs lower costs than not doing so, because the deaths associated with strike outweigh the costs of prophylactic treatment. Lamb treatment, in particular, has a substantial effect on strike and cost reduction, since lambs are the most abundant age-class of animals and are at the highest risk over the period when fly abundance is the greatest. Early-season treatment of ewes before shearing is also an important component of the lowest cost strategies, particularly when the blowfly season is extended. While the rational choice of the most appropriate strike management strategy is essential in the context of farm economics, welfare considerations lend added importance to treatment decisions that reduce strike incidence.     

Comparison of traps for the control of sheep blowfly in the U.K.

The ability of three commercially available trap types to catch Lucilia (Diptera: Calliphoridae) blowflies was assessed on three sheep farms in southwest England in 2008. The aim was to evaluate their relative value for the control of ovine cutaneous myiasis (sheep blowfly strike) on farms. There was a highly significant difference between the total number of female Lucilia caught per day by the traps, with an Agrilure Trap (Agrimin Ltd, Brigg, U.K.) catching more than the other trap types (Rescue Disposable Fly Trap, Sterling International, Spokane, U.S.A.; Redtop Trap, Miller Methods, Johannesburg, South Africa). However, there was no significant difference between the traps in the numbers of female Lucilia sericata (Meigen) caught. Nevertheless, consideration of the rate at which female L. sericata were caught over time showed that the Agrilure trap did not begin catching until about 30 days after its initial deployment. It subsequently caught L. sericata at a faster rate than the other two traps. The data suggest that the freeze‐dried liver bait used in the Agrilure trap required a period of about 30 days to become fully rehydrated and decompose to the degree required to attract and catch L. sericata. Once the bait was attractive, however, the trap outperformed the other two traps in terms of the rate of L. sericata capture. The Agrilure trap would appear to be the most effective of the designs tested for use against sheep blowfly and blowfly strike in the U.K., but care would be needed to ensure that the traps were deployed in advance of the blowfly season so that the bait was suitably aged when trapping was required.     

Blowfly strike in England and Wales: the relationship between prevalence and farm and management factors

Abstract. In order to develop and evaluate control strategies for blowfly strike, a greater understanding of the epidemiology is essential. A postal survey of sheep farmers yielded information about ten farm and management factors and their relationship to blowfly strike prevalence. The risk of a farm reporting at least one case of blowfly strike increased as flock size and stocking density increased (adjusted odds ratio of 1.13 for an increase in flock size of 100 sheep and 1.38 for an increase in stocking density of ten sheep per hectare). As farm altitude increased, the risk of blowfly strike decreased (adjusted odds ratio 0.67 for an increase in farm altitude of 100 m). The risk of high strike prevalence (more than 2% of sheep struck) decreased as both farm altitude and flock size increased. High strike prevalence was also associated with on-farm sheep carcase disposal (odds ratio 1.35). Farmers in the south-west of England were more likely to report at least one case of blowfly strike and high strike prevalence compared to all other regions.     

Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity,and on sustainable levels of profitability

Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970–99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models (GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit‐maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity (ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower‐rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from ?0.15 to +0.07 °C^?1 and to CO₂ increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6–25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal‐livestock zone.     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

Estimating the incidence of fly myiases in Australian sheep flocks: development of a weather-driven regression model

The blowfly, Lucilia cuprina Wiedemann (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is the primary myiasis (strike) fly of sheep in Australia. Most strike occurs in the anal-perineum area (crutch), but strike to the neck, shoulders, back and withers (body) is also important. Regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which the weekly incidence of flystrike can be explained by variations in fly abundance and/or recent changes in weather, pasture conditions or flock management. Strike and flock management data were collected by questionnaire surveys of 30-60 sheep properties in each of three major sheep-producing areas in southeastern Australia, namely, Gunning (southern New South Wales), Inverell (northern New South Wales) and Flinders Island (Bass Strait). After using simulation modelling to remove effects due to shearing, crutching and/or insecticide treatment, pasture growth index was found to be the most important explanatory variable affecting the incidence of all forms of myiasis. Others were average weekly air temperature, the amount and frequency of rainfall, relative humidity, dung quality index and a factor denoting seasonal effects. Together, these variables accounted for 48.4% of the variation in body strike, 56.8% of that in crutch strike and 51.9% of that in other forms of strike. Prediction was improved by the inclusion of additional lagged variables describing previous strike, fly abundance and fly activity. With these additions, the variation explained increased to 60.4% for body strike, 68.0% for crutch strike and 58.3% for other strikes.     

Clear and present danger: balancing the land management issues of today with the eternal challenge of climate change

Summary Management of natural ecosystems in Australian landscapes is fraught with difficulties and challenges. While unfavourable climate change is viewed of as an overwhelming critical factor, government and nongovernment groups faced with conserving biodiversity and ecological processes must continue to focus on already well‐advanced present‐day threats that erode the resilience of species to environmental perturbations and change. The most notable of these are posed by land clearing, introduced pests, weeds and inappropriate fire regimes. There are many positive examples of the biodiversity gains that can be made from reconnecting remnant vegetation, intensive and extensive pest and weed control, and re‐adjusting fire regimes. When such pressures are alleviated, native species sometimes display an innate ability to recover. This gives hope that natural systems can be both resurrected and maintained for a range of functions, including providing sufficient suitable habitat to support the movement of component species in response to climate change. Achieving success in managing natural areas over the long term may be further assisted by looking outside the box for funding sources. Monitoring the outcome of land management activities is a key to understanding what is being achieved and should be encouraged wherever possible.     

Modification of developmental instability and fitness: Malathion-resistance in the Australian sheep blowfly,Lucilia cuprina

The evolution of resistance to malathion byLucilia cuprina initially results in an increase in fluctuating asymmetry. Resistant flies are at a selective disadvantage, relative to susceptibles, in the absence of the insecticide. A fitness/asymmetry modifier of diazinon-resistant phenotypes ameliorates these effects resulting in malathion-resistant phenotypes of relative fitness and asymmetry similar to susceptibles. For the nine genotypic combinations of the modifier and malathion-resistance alleles, developmental time increases linearly with increasing asymmetry. Percentage egg hatch decreases linearly with increasing asymmetry. The initially disruptive effect of the malathion-resistant allele was partially dominant, the effect of the modifier dominant. The results are discussed in terms of developmental perturbation, asymmetry estimation and relative fitness to consider whether it is adequate to use changes in fluctuating asymmetry alone as measures of developmental instability. It is suggested that in some circumstances antisymmetry may indicate developmental instability and that the diazinon/malathion-resistance systems inL. cuprina may allow the relative importance of genetical and/or environmental developmental perturbations to be ascertained.     

Invertebrate pests of canola and their management in Australia: a review

Abstract  In Australia, canola is subject to attack by at least 30 species of invertebrate pests, although the composition of this pest complex can vary between regions. Mites (e.g. the redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor and the blue oat mites Penthaleus spp.), lucerne flea ( Sminthurus viridis ) and false wireworms (e.g. the grey false wireworm Isopteron punctatissimus and the bronzed field beetle Adelium brevicorne ) are the major pests threatening the seedling establishment, whereas aphids (the cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae , the turnip aphid Lipaphis erysimi and the green peach aphid Myzus persicae ), the native budworm ( Helicoverpa punctigera ), the diamondback moth ( Plutella xylostella ) and the Rutherglen bug ( Nysius vinitor ) can cause irregular and unpredictable damage to the flowering and podding plants. Current tactics of pest management for canola rely largely on the use of synthetic pesticides, but this single-technology approach is likely to incur negative effects on natural enemies and the risk of pest resistance. Thus, the sustainable production of canola requires integrated pest management (IPM) strategies, in which cultural control, crop resistance and biological control are used as important components, with chemical inputs applied only when absolutely needed to restrict pests from reaching economically damaging densities. Such IPM strategies should be built around a fundamental understanding of pest ecology at both regional and local farm levels and the integration of renewable technologies. Therefore, future research efforts need to be focused on the canola-cropping system, with a particular emphasis on the impact of pest species, natural enemies of the pests, varietal resistance to pests and the spatial ecology of pest species.     

A conceptual model of farmers' informational activity: a tool for improved support of livestock farming management

Farmers have been slow to adopt decision support system (DSS) models and their outputs, mainly owing to (i) the complexity of the data involved, which most potential users are unable to collect and process; and (ii) inability to integrate these models into real representations of their informational environments. This situation raises questions about the way farm management researchers have modelled information and information management, and especially about the quality of the information assessed by the farmers. We consider that to review advisory procedures we need to understand how farmers select and use farm management-related information, rather than focusing on decisions made in particular situations. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model of the farmer-targeted farm management-related information system. This model was developed using data collected in commercial beef cattle farms. The design structure and operational procedures are based on (i) data categories representing the diversity of the informational activity; and (ii) selected criteria for supporting decisions. The model is composed of two subsystems, each composed of two units. First, an organizational subsystem organizes, finalizes and monitors informational activity. Second, a processing subsystem builds and exploits the informational resources. This conceptual model makes it possible to describe and understand the diverse range of farmers' informational activity by taking into account both the flow of information and the way farmers make sense of that information. This model could serve as a component of biodecisional DSS models for assigning information in the decision-making process. The next task will be to take into account the broad range of farmers' perceptions of the management situations in DSS models.     

Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder

It has been suggested that animals may have evolved cooperative breeding strategies in response to extreme climatic conditions. Climate change, however, may push species beyond their ability to cope with extreme climates, and reduce the group sizes in cooperatively breeding species to a point where populations are no longer viable. Predicting the impact of future climates on these species is challenging as modelling the impact of climate change on their population dynamics requires information on both group- and individual-level responses to climatic conditions. Using a single-sex individual-based model incorporating demographic responses to ambient temperature in an endangered species, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, we show that there is a threshold temperature above which populations of the species are predicted to collapse. For simulated populations with carrying capacities equivalent to the median size of real-world populations (nine packs), extinction risk increases once temperatures exceed those predicted in the best-case climate warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6). The threshold is higher (between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) for larger simulated populations (30 packs), but 84% of real-world populations number <30 packs. Simulated populations collapsed because, at high ambient temperatures, juvenile survival was so low that packs were no longer recruiting enough individuals to persist, leading them to die out. This work highlights the importance of social dynamics in determining impacts of climatic variables on social species, and the critical role that recruitment can play in driving population-level impacts of climate change. Population models parameterised on long-term data are essential for predicting future population viability under climate change.