Amazon drought and forest response: Largely reduced forest photosynthesis but slightly increased canopy greenness during the extreme drought of 2015/2016

Amazon droughts have impacted regional ecosystem functioning as well as global carbon cycling. The severe dry‐season droughts in 2005 and 2010, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, have been widely investigated in terms of drought severity and impacts on ecosystems. Although the influence of Pacific SST anomaly on wet‐season precipitation has been well recognized, it remains uncertain to what extent the droughts driven by Pacific SST anomaly could affect forest greenness and photosynthesis in the Amazon. Here, we examined the monthly and annual dynamics of forest greenness and photosynthetic capacity when Amazon ecosystems experienced an extreme drought in 2015/2016 driven by a strong El Niño event. We found that the drought during August 2015–July 2016 was one of the two most severe meteorological droughts since 1901. Due to the enhanced solar radiation during this drought, overall forest greenness showed a small increase, and 21.6% of forests even greened up (greenness index anomaly ≥1 standard deviation). In contrast, solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an indicator of vegetation photosynthetic capacity, showed a significant decrease. Responses of forest greenness and photosynthesis decoupled during this drought, indicating that forest photosynthesis could still be suppressed regardless of the variation in canopy greenness. If future El Niño frequency increases as projected by earth system models, droughts would result in persistent reduction in Amazon forest productivity, substantial changes in tree composition, and considerable carbon emissions from Amazon.     

Long‐term variation in Amazon forest dynamics

Questions: Have forest dynamics changed significantly in intact Amazon rainforests since the early 1980s? If so, what environmental drivers might potentially be responsible? Location: Central Amazonia, north of Manaus, Brazil. Methods: Within 20 1‐ha plots scattered over ～300 km², all trees (≥10 cm diameter at breast height) were marked, identified, and measured five times between 1981 and 2003. We estimated stand‐level dynamics (mortality, recruitment, and growth) for each census interval and evaluated weather parameters over the study period. Results: We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality across our plots. Tree recruitment also rose significantly over time but lagged behind mortality. Tree growth generally accelerated but varied considerably among census intervals, and was lowest when mortality was highest. Tree basal area rose 4% overall, but stem number exhibited no clear trend. In terms of climate variation, annual maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly during our study. Rainfall anomalies were strongly and positively associated with ENSO events. Conclusions: The increasing forest dynamics, growth, and basal area observed are broadly consistent with the CO₂ fertilization hypothesis. However, pronounced shorter‐term variability in stand dynamics might be associated with climatic vicissitudes. Tree mortality peaked, and tree recruitment and growth declined during atypically wet periods. Tree growth was fastest during dry periods, when reduced cloudiness might have increased available solar radiation. Inferences about causality are tenuous because tree data were collected only at multi‐year intervals. Mean temperatures and rainfall seasonality have both increased over time in central Amazonia, and these could potentially have long‐term effects on forest dynamics and carbon storage.     

Climate‐growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate‐growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in tropical dry secondary forests in southern Mexico. The role of large‐scale climatic drivers in determining interannual growth variation was studied by correlating growth to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, including the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Annual growth varied eightfold over 1970–2007, and was correlated with wet season rainfall (r=0.75). Temperature, cloud cover and solar variation did not affect growth, although these climate variables correlated with growth due to their relations with rainfall. Strong positive correlations between growth and SSTA occurred in the North tropical Atlantic during the first half of the year, and in the Pacific during the second half of the year. The Pacific influence corresponded closely to ENSO‐like influences with negative effects of high SSTA in the eastern Pacific Niño3.4 region on growth due to decreases in rainfall. During El Niño years growth was reduced by 37%. We estimated how growth would be affected by the predicted trend of decreasing rainfall in Central America towards the end of this century. Using rainfall predictions of two sets of climate models, we estimated that growth at the end of this century will be reduced by 12% under a medium (A1B) and 21% under a high (A2) emission scenario. These results suggest that climate change may have repercussions for the carbon sequestration capacity of tropical dry forests in the region.     

Long‐term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that anthropogenic global change is altering plant species composition in tropical forests. Fewer studies, however, have focused on long‐term trends in reproductive activity, in part because of the lack of data from tropical sites. Here, we analyze a 28‐year record of tropical flower phenology in response to anthropogenic climate and atmospheric change. We show that a multidecadal increase in flower activity is most strongly associated with rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations using yearly aggregated data. Compared to significant climatic factors, CO₂ had on average an approximately three‐, four‐, or fivefold stronger effect than rainfall, solar radiation, and the Multivariate ENSO Index, respectively. Peaks in flower activity were associated with greater solar radiation and lower rainfall during El Niño years. The effect of atmospheric CO₂ on flowering has diminished over the most recent decade for lianas and canopy trees, whereas flowering of midstory trees and shrub species continued to increase with rising CO₂. Increases in flowering were accompanied by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy and midstory trees. Understory treelets did not show increases in flowering but did show increases in duration. Given that atmospheric CO₂ will likely continue to climb over the next century, a long‐term increase in flowering activity may persist in some growth forms until checked by nutrient limitation or by climate change through rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency and/or increasing cloudiness and reduced insolation.     

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

1. Ecologists often make predictions about community richness and diversity using climate variables that include seasonal precipitation totals and mean daily temperatures. While means and totals can be effective predictors to a certain extent, the complexities of faunal–climate relationships might be over‐simplified through the use of coarse‐grained variables. 2. The goal of this study was to investigate less commonly studied climate variables, including indices of intra‐annual variation in the timing and intensity of precipitation events that might be used to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient. Data from a long‐term, single‐observer dataset at four sites in California were examined with Bayesian model averaging and structural equation modelling. Species‐specific responses to climate were compared with community responses at each site. 3. At lower elevations, it was found that the relative importance of climate variables shifted towards temporal patterns of precipitation, including the timing of the first storm event and the annual number of precipitation events. Heterogeneity among sites was apparent in the importance of specific weather variables, and temporal trends (across years) were detected for a small number of variables. Species‐specific results paralleled those obtained from analysis of species richness, thus suggesting a commonality of response to climate across site‐specific assemblages. 4. Models were improved by inclusion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation indices, indicating that regional variables can profitably be included in faunal–climate relationship analyses. These results emphasise the need for researchers to examine climate variables beyond the most readily summarised means and totals.     

Historical changes in the distributions of invasive and endemic marine invertebrates are contrary to global warming predictions: the effects of decadal climate oscillations

Aim We tested whether a hybrid zone that has formed between an endemic and an invasive species of marine mussel has shifted poleward as expected under a general hypothesis of global warming or has responded instead to decadal climate oscillations. Location We sampled 15 locations on the coast of California, USA, that span the distributions of the two species of marine mussels and their hybrids. Methods Mussels were sampled in 2005–08 and analysed at three nuclear gene loci using methods identical to those used in a study a decade earlier in order to document the genetic architecture of this system. Change in the system was determined by comparing the frequency of species‐specific alleles and multi‐locus genotypes over the intervening decade. Climate variation over the same period was examined by comparing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), upwelling indices and sea surface temperature (SST) during and prior to the study period. Results Contrary to the general expectations of global warming we show that the highly invasive warm‐water mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone formed with the endemic species Mytilus trossulus has rapidly contracted southwards. Mytilus galloprovincialis declined in abundance over the northern third of its geographic range (c. 540 km) and has become rare or absent across the northern 200 km of the range it previously colonized during its initial invasion. The distribution of the native species M. trossulus has remained unchanged over the same time period. Main conclusions The large‐scale range shift in the warm‐water invasive species M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone it forms with M. trossulus has been exceptionally rapid and is in the opposite direction to that predicted by the global warming hypotheses. This shift, however, is consistent with decadal climate variation associated with the ENSO and the PDO. Since the biogeography of this system was first described in 1999, the PDO has shifted from a warm phase, dominated by frequent and large El Niño events, to a cold‐phase period, with minimal ENSO activity. Thus recent decadal climate variation can oppose global trends in average temperature and this study illustrates the need to integrate the effects of climate change across multiple time‐scales.     

Climate‐mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.     

Long‐term changes in ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) assemblages in Scotland

1. One‐way, directional changes in both plant and animal associations are likely to be occurring as a result of changing climate. Current knowledge of long‐term cycles in insect communities is scarce, and therefore it is difficult to assess whether the observed changes in insect communities are the first part of a long‐term trend or parts of normal cycles. 2. In this study multivariate methods were used to describe the trends in ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) assemblages over an 18‐year (1994–2011) period at two Scottish sites. In order to have a deeper insight into the underlying processes, both environmental factors and the species driving the detected changes were investigated. 3. In four out of the six sample transects, insect community compositions showed trends rather than fluctuating patterns. Hierarchical cluster analysis also revealed a clear separation, after accounting for sampling location and broad habitat, between early and later years of sampling. Decreasing annual maximum temperatures and increasing precipitation were identified as the main environmental drivers. Although increased rainfall was expected to be beneficial for hygrophilous species, in the transects in this study generalist species increased in dominance. 4. The increasing importance of generalists, in the communities studied here, underlines the vulnerability of the specialist species and urges greater effort in their conservation. Assemblage changes along different trajectories at the sites in the present study could only be tracked using multivariate methods; commonly used diversity indices proved to be unsatisfactory. Therefore, the exclusive use of simple diversity indices should be discouraged and multivariate methods should be preferred in environmental assessments and conservation planning.     

Long‐term antagonistic effect of increased precipitation and nitrogen addition on soil respiration in a semiarid steppe

Changes in water and nitrogen (N) availability due to climate change and atmospheric N deposition could have significant effects on soil respiration, a major pathway of carbon (C) loss from terrestrial ecosystems. A manipulative experiment simulating increased precipitation and atmospheric N deposition has been conducted for 9 years (2005–2013) in a semiarid grassland in Mongolian Plateau, China. Increased precipitation and N addition interactively affect soil respiration through the 9 years. The interactions demonstrated that N addition weakened the precipitation‐induced stimulation of soil respiration, whereas increased precipitation exacerbated the negative impacts of N addition. The main effects of increased precipitation and N addition treatment on soil respiration were 15.8% stimulated and 14.2% suppressed, respectively. Moreover, a declining pattern and 2‐year oscillation were observed for soil respiration response to N addition under increased precipitation. The dependence of soil respiration upon gross primary productivity and soil moisture, but not soil temperature, suggests that resources C substrate supply and water availability are more important than temperature in regulating interannual variations of soil C release in semiarid grassland ecosystems. The findings indicate that atmospheric N deposition may have the potential to mitigate soil C loss induced by increased precipitation, and highlight that long‐term and multi‐factor global change studies are critical for predicting the general patterns of terrestrial C cycling in response to global change in the future.     

Seasonal patterns in rainforest litterfall: Detecting endogenous and environmental influences from long‐term sampling

Tropical rainforests play an important role in the storage and cycling of global terrestrial carbon. In the carbon cycle, net primary productivity of forests is linked to soil respiration through the production and decomposition of forest litter. Climate seasonality appears to influence the production of litter although there is considerable variability within and across forests that makes accurate estimates challenging. We explored the effects of climate seasonality on litterfall dynamics in a lowland humid rainforest over a 7‐year period from 2007 to 2013, including an El Niño/La Niña cycle in 2010/2011. Litterfall was sampled fortnightly in 24 traps of 0.50 m diameter within a 1‐ha forest plot. Total mean litterfall was 10.48 ± 1.32 (±SD, dry weight) Mg ha^?1 year^?1 and seasonal in distribution. The different components of litterfall were divided into L_Leaf (63.5%), L_Wood (27.7%) and L_{FF[flowers & fruit]} (8.8%), which all demonstrated seasonal dynamics. Peak falls in L_Leaf and L_Wood were highly predictable, coinciding with maximum daily temperatures and 1 and 2 months prior to maximum monthly rainfall. The El Niño/La Niña cycle coincided with elevated local winter temperatures and peak falls of L_Leaf and L_Wood. Importantly, we establish how sampling length and generalized additive models eliminate the requirement for extensive within‐site sampling when the intention is to describe dynamics in litterfall patterns. Further, a greater understanding of seasonal cycles in litterfall allows us to distinguish between endogenous controls and environmental factors, such as El Niño events, which may have significant impacts on biochemical cycles.     

Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Modification of Vegetative Phenology in a Tropical Semi‐deciduous Forest by Abnormal Drought and Rain1

The control of vegetative phenology in tropical trees is not well understood. In dry forest trees, leaf abscission may be enhanced by advanced leaf age, increasing water stress, or declining photoperiod. Normally, it is impossible to dissect the effects of each of these variables because most leaves are shed during the early dry season when day length is near its minimum and leaves are relatively old. The 1997 El‐Niño Southern Oscillation caused a ten‐week long, severe abnormal drought from June to August in the semi‐deciduous forests of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We monitored the effect of this drought on phenology and water status of trees with young leaves and compared modifications of phenology in trees of different functional types with the pattern observed during the regular dry season. Although deciduous trees at dry sites were severely water stressed (Ψstem < ‐7MPa) and their mesic leaves remained wilted for more than two months, these and all other trees retained all leaves during the abnormal drought. Many trees exchanged leaves three to four months earlier than normal during the wet period after the abnormal drought and shed leaves again during the regular dry season. Irrigation and an exceptional 70 mm rainfall during the mid‐dry season 1998/1999 caused bud break and flushing in all leafless trees except dormant stem succulents. The complex interactions between leaf age and water stress, the principal determinants of leaf abscission, were found to vary widely among trees of different functional types.     

Long‐term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High‐elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree‐ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long‐term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂, i.e., C_i/C_a and intrinsic water‐use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree‐ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to quantify long‐term trends in C_i/C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³C‐derived), growth (mixed‐effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate–growth relations showed growth‐limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental‐scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C‐derived long‐term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Seedling Mortality Due to Drought and Fire Associated with the 2002 El Niño Event in a Tropical Rain Forest in North‐East Queensland,Australia1

We monitored survival of seedlings in 216 1‐m² quadrats in lowland rain forest in tropical north Queensland between December 2001 and December 2002. During this time, the region experienced severe drought associated with an El Nińo Southern Oscillation event. The 2001 census recorded 124 species and 2912 individuals. In late November 2002 (2 wk prior to the second census), a low intensity fire passed through approximately half of the study site removing all evidence of seedlings from 110 plots. Only 482 (17%) individuals and 64 (52%) species recorded in 2001 survived the 12‐mo period. In 96 quadrats not affected by fire, mortality was high, but considerably variable between species. Six of the 20 most abundant species in 2001 experienced mortality rates higher than the community average and two of the most abundant species showed rates lower than average. Overall, conditions experienced during 2002 caused significant changes in the rank abundances of species between censuses. Mortality due to fire was less severe and mortality more uniform across species, resulting in significant concordance between pre and postfire rankings, once the effects of drought had been considered. Our results provide the first indication of how differences in survival after a perturbation predicted to become more frequent in future global climates may alter the size and species composition of the seedling bank in Australian tropical rain forests.     

Long‐term recovery of the functional community assembly and carbon pools in an African tropical forest succession

On the African continent, the population is expected to expand fourfold in the next century, which will increasingly impact the global carbon cycle and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, it is of vital importance to understand how carbon stocks and community assembly recover after slash‐and‐burn events in tropical second growth forests. We inventoried a chronosequence of 15 1‐ha plots in lowland tropical forest of the central Congo Basin and evaluated changes in aboveground and soil organic carbon stocks and in tree species diversity, functional composition, and community‐weighted functional traits with succession. We aimed to track long‐term recovery trajectories of species and carbon stocks in secondary forests, comparing 5 to 200 + year old secondary forest with reference primary forest. Along the successional gradient, the functional composition followed a trajectory from resource acquisition to resource conservation, except for nitrogen‐related leaf traits. Despite a fast, initial recovery of species diversity and functional composition, there were still important structural and carbon stock differences between old growth secondary and pristine forest, which suggests that a full recovery of secondary forests might take much longer than currently shown. As such, the aboveground carbon stocks of 200 + year old forest were only 57% of those in the pristine reference forest, which suggests a slow recovery of aboveground carbon stocks, although more research is needed to confirm this observation. The results of this study highlight the need for more in‐depth studies on forest recovery in Central Africa, to gain insight into the processes that control biodiversity and carbon stock recovery.     

Precipitation‐drainage cycles lead to hot moments in soil carbon dioxide dynamics in a Neotropical wet forest

Soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions from tropical forests are modulated seasonally by precipitation. However, subseasonal responses to meteorological events (e.g., storms, drought) are less well known. Here, we present the effects of meteorological variability on short‐term (hours to months) dynamics of soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions in a Neotropical wet forest. We continuously monitored soil temperature, moisture, and CO₂ for a three‐year period (2015–2017), encompassing normal conditions, floods, a dry El Niño period, and a hurricane. We used a coupled model (Hydrus‐1D) for soil water propagation, heat transfer, and diffusive gas transport to explain observed soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil CO₂ concentration responses to meteorology, and we estimated soil CO₂ efflux with a gradient‐flux model. Then, we predicted changes in soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions under different warming climate change scenarios. Observed short‐term (hourly to daily) soil CO₂ concentration responded more to precipitation than to other meteorological variables (including lower pressure during the hurricane). Observed soil CO₂ failed to exhibit diel patterns (associated with diel temperature fluctuations in drier climates), except during the drier El Niño period. Climate change scenarios showed enhanced soil CO₂ due to warmer conditions, while precipitation played a critical role in moderating the balance between concentrations and emissions. The scenario with increased precipitation (based on a regional model projection) led to increases of +11% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +4% in soil CO₂ emissions. The scenario with decreased precipitation (based on global circulation model projections) resulted in increases of +4% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +18% in soil CO₂ emissions, and presented more prominent hot moments in soil CO₂ outgassing. These findings suggest that soil CO₂ will increase under warmer climate in tropical wet forests, and precipitation patterns will define the intensity of CO₂ outgassing hot moments.