Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO₂ concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.     

干湿交替下草地生态系统土壤呼吸变化的微生物响应机制研究进展

草地是陆地生态系统中最重要、分布最广的生态系统类型之一,对全球碳循环和气候调节有着重要的作用和效应.我国拥有极为丰富的草地资源,是巨大的陆地碳储存库,也是全球碳循环重要组成部分.干湿交替是土壤中普遍发生的自然现象,这种现象的发生可能会加速土壤的碳矿化过程、激增土壤呼吸以及影响微生物的活性和群落结构等.在全球变化日趋显著的背景下,降雨量、降雨强度以及降雨频率的变化将会加速土壤干湿交替进程,进而带来微生物活性、群落结构以及土壤呼吸的变化,并对全球碳循环过程产生重要影响.本文综述了近十年来国内外的相关文献,对干湿交替条件下,土壤释放CO₂消耗碳源、土壤呼吸随时间的动态变化趋势以及土壤呼吸与微生物量、微生物活性和微生物群落结构之间的关系进行了分析和总结,以期为更好地理解干湿交替过程中草地生态系统土壤呼吸的微生物学响应机制,更准确地预测和评估未来的全球陆地生态系统的碳收支与气候变化提供一定的理论基础.     

火干扰与生态系统的碳循环

火干扰是陆地生态系统碳循环的重要影响因子。它改变着整个系统的碳循环过程与碳分布格局。正确评估火干扰在碳循环过程中的作用,对推进全球碳循环研究有着重要的意义。从4个方面系统的回顾了火干扰对碳循环的影响过程及其研究方法:(1)火烧过程中含碳痕量气体排放的估算;(2)火烧迹地恢复过程中净第一性生产力(NPP)与土壤呼吸的变化;(3)火干扰对生态系统碳源/汇的影响;(4)模型方法在火干扰与生态系统碳循环研究中的应用。目前火灾碳排量的估算方法业已成熟,但进行更精确的估算必须基于对受干扰生态系统的性质以及火势的时空变异性质的准确理解;相比之下,对于间接的、更为重要的影响,即对火烧迹地恢复过程中碳循环变化的研究则显不足。由于数据缺乏,现有研究大多限于对碳循环某一方面的观测与定量描述,缺乏全面的机理性分析。对此,实地观测、模型模拟与遥感观测的跨尺度集成将成为未来火干扰研究的一个主要方向。     

Cold air drainage flows subsidize montane valley ecosystem productivity

In mountainous areas, cold air drainage from high to low elevations has pronounced effects on local temperature, which is a critical driver of many ecosystem processes, including carbon uptake and storage. Here, we leverage new approaches for interpreting ecosystem carbon flux observations in complex terrain to quantify the links between macro‐climate condition, drainage flows, local microclimate, and ecosystem carbon cycling in a southern Appalachian valley. Data from multiple long‐running climate stations and multiple eddy covariance flux towers are combined with simple models for ecosystem carbon fluxes. We show that cold air drainage into the valley suppresses local temperature by several degrees at night and for several hours before and after sunset, leading to reductions in growing season respiration on the order of ~8%. As a result, we estimate that drainage flows increase growing season and annual net carbon uptake in the valley by >10% and >15%, respectively, via effects on microclimate that are not be adequately represented in regional‐ and global‐scale terrestrial ecosystem models. Analyses driven by chamber‐based estimates of soil and plant respiration reveal cold air drainage effects on ecosystem respiration are dominated by reductions to the respiration of aboveground biomass. We further show that cold air drainage proceeds more readily when cloud cover and humidity are low, resulting in the greatest enhancements to net carbon uptake in the valley under clear, cloud‐free (i.e., drought‐like) conditions. This is a counterintuitive result that is neither observed nor predicted outside of the valley, where nocturnal temperature and respiration increase during dry periods. This result should motivate efforts to explore how topographic flows may buffer eco‐physiological processes from macroscale climate change.     

Warming,eutrophication, and predator loss amplify subsidies between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems

The exchange of organisms and energy among ecosystems has major impacts on food web structure and dynamics, yet little is known about how climate warming combines with other pervasive anthropogenic perturbations to affect such exchanges. We used an outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment to investigate the interactive effects of warming, eutrophication, and changes in top predators on the flux of biomass between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We demonstrated that predatory fish decoupled aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems by reducing the emergence of aquatic organisms and suppressing the decomposition of terrestrial plant detritus. In contrast, warming and nutrients enhanced cross‐ecosystem exchanges by increasing emergence and decomposition, and these effects were strongest in the absence of predators. Furthermore, we found that warming advanced while predators delayed the phenology of insect emergence. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic perturbations may extend well beyond ecosystem boundaries by influencing cross‐ecosystem subsidies. We find that these changes are sufficient to substantially impact recipient communities and potentially alter the carbon balance between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.     

Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests

In many parts of the world forest disturbance regimes have intensified recently, and future climatic changes are expected to amplify this development further in the coming decades. These changes are increasingly challenging the main objectives of forest ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain the biological diversity of forests. Yet a comprehensive understanding of how disturbances affect these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. We conducted a global literature review on the impact of three of the most important disturbance agents (fire, wind, and bark beetles) on 13 different ecosystem services and three indicators of biodiversity in forests of the boreal, cool‐ and warm‐temperate biomes. Our objectives were to (i) synthesize the effect of natural disturbances on a wide range of possible objectives of forest management, and (ii) investigate standardized effect sizes of disturbance for selected indicators via a quantitative meta‐analysis. We screened a total of 1958 disturbance studies published between 1981 and 2013, and reviewed 478 in detail. We first investigated the overall effect of disturbances on individual ecosystem services and indicators of biodiversity by means of independence tests, and subsequently examined the effect size of disturbances on indicators of carbon storage and biodiversity by means of regression analysis. Additionally, we investigated the effect of commonly used approaches of disturbance management, i.e. salvage logging and prescribed burning. We found that disturbance impacts on ecosystem services are generally negative, an effect that was supported for all categories of ecosystem services, i.e. supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services (P < 0.001). Indicators of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, habitat quality and diversity indices, on the other hand were found to be influenced positively by disturbance (P < 0.001). Our analyses thus reveal a ‘disturbance paradox’, documenting that disturbances can put ecosystem services at risk while simultaneously facilitating biodiversity. A detailed investigation of disturbance effect sizes on carbon storage and biodiversity further underlined these divergent effects of disturbance. While a disturbance event on average causes a decrease in total ecosystem carbon by 38.5% (standardized coefficient for stand‐replacing disturbance), it on average increases overall species richness by 35.6%. Disturbance‐management approaches such as salvage logging and prescribed burning were neither found significantly to mitigate negative effects on ecosystem services nor to enhance positive effects on biodiversity, and thus were not found to alleviate the disturbance paradox. Considering that climate change is expected to intensify natural disturbance regimes, our results indicate that biodiversity will generally benefit from such changes while a sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services might come increasingly under pressure. This underlines that disturbance risk and resilience require increased attention in ecosystem management in the future, and that new approaches to addressing the disturbance paradox in management are needed.     

造林再造林、森林采伐、气候变化、CO2浓度升高、火灾和虫害对森林固碳能力的影响

森林生态系统具有吸收大气CO_2、缓解气候变化的作用。造林再造林作为京都议定书认可的大气CO_2减排途径,是提高森林固碳能力的低成本、有效策略。森林生态系统固碳能力还受森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害等自然因素和人为因素的强烈影响。综述了全球和区域造林再造林的固碳能力,以及目前较受重视的一些因素(森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害)对森林生态系统固碳能力的影响。结果表明,全球造林再造林固碳能力为148—2400TgC/a;采伐造成的全球森林碳损失最大为900 TgC/a,其次是火灾为300 TgC/a,虫害造成森林碳释放最小在2—107 TgC/a之间。建议在今后的研究中,应关注固碳措施和多种环境因素对森林生态系统固碳能力,尤其是对森林土壤固碳能力的影响,严格控制森林采伐和火灾发生,以及减少或避免造林再造林活动引起的碳泄漏。     

基于过程模型的2000-2018年中国陆地生态系统服务时空动态及其权衡与协同分析

2000年以来,中国陆地生态系统经历了剧烈变化并显著改变了生态系统服务。深入理解近20年中国陆地生态系统服务的时空演变格局及其权衡与协同关系对生态系统管理和可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于最新发展的遥感驱动的生态系统服务评估过程模型(CEVSA-ES),研究定量评估了2000—2018年中国4种生态系统服务(即净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持)的时空格局及其权衡与协同关系。结果发现：(1)净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持等服务在2018的全国总量分别为3.68 Pg C/a、0.43 Pg C/a、1015.71 km³/a 208.18 Gt/a;东部季风区的生态系统服务显著高于西北内陆地区及青藏高原地区,特别是热带-亚热带地区主导了中国生态系统服务供给,其对全国尺度不同生态系统服务总量的贡献率均高于50%;(2)2000—2018年,全国净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持均呈增加趋势,年际变化速率分别为42.80 Tg C/a、13.42 Tg C/a、11.90 km³/a、1.11 Gt/a,其中净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水呈...     

Evidence of climate‐driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem‐wide reorganization occurred in the mid‐1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid‐1960s and the mid‐1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher‐level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.     

Restoration potential of threatened ecosystem engineers increases with aridity: broad scale effects on soil nutrients and function

Species extinctions alter ecosystem services, and the magnitude of this impact is likely to change across environmental gradients. In Australia, soil‐disturbing mammals that are now considered ecologically extinct are thought to be important ecosystem engineers. Previous studies have demonstrated microsite‐level impacts of reintroduced soil‐disturbing mammals on soil functions, but effects are yet to be tested across larger scales. Further, it is unclear how impacts vary across environmental gradients and if the restoration potential of reintroductions changes with climate. We examined the effects of soil‐disturbing mammal reintroductions across a large rainfall gradient in Australia to test the hypothesis that ecosystem engineering effects on soil function depend on climate. We compared soil labile carbon, available nitrogen and the activity of four enzymes associated with nutrient cycling in three microsite types with and without soil‐disturbing mammals in five sites along a large rainfall gradient (166–870 mm). Soil enzyme activity was greatest in the presence of soil‐disturbing mammals and increased with rainfall, but soil available carbon and nitrogen varied across the gradient and among microsites. Microsite effects were often stronger than any effects of soil‐disturbing mammals, with soil beneath vegetated patches (shrubs and trees) having greater enzyme activity, carbon and nitrogen than bare soils. However, soil‐disturbing mammals homogenised nutrient distributions across microsites. The impacts of soil‐disturbing mammals on soil function previously detected at micro‐scales was detected at a landscape‐scale. However, the overall effects of soil‐disturbing mammals on soil functions varied with productivity (rainfall). The context of soil‐disturbing mammal reintroductions is thus likely to be critical in determining their effectiveness in restoring soil function.     

How eddy covariance flux measurements have contributed to our understanding of Global Change Biology

A global network of long‐term carbon and water flux measurements has existed since the late 1990s. With its representative sampling of the terrestrial biosphere's climate and ecological spaces, this network is providing background information and direct measurements on how ecosystem metabolism responds to environmental and biological forcings and how they may be changing in a warmer world with more carbon dioxide. In this review, I explore how carbon and water fluxes of the world's ecosystem are responding to a suite of covarying environmental factors, like sunlight, temperature, soil moisture, and carbon dioxide. I also report on how coupled carbon and water fluxes are modulated by biological and ecological factors such as phenology and a suite of structural and functional properties. And, I investigate whether long‐term trends in carbon and water fluxes are emerging in various ecological and climate spaces and the degree to which they may be driven by physical and biological forcings. As a growing number of time series extend up to 20 years in duration, we are at the verge of capturing ecosystem scale trends in the breathing of a changing biosphere. Consequently, flux measurements need to continue to report on future conditions and responses and assess the efficacy of natural climate solutions.     

Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry,biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa

We model future changes in land biogeochemistry and biogeography across East Africa. East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections exhibit a robust response of strong future warming and general annual‐mean rainfall increases. Eighteen future climate projections from nine GCMs participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment were used as input to the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), which predicted vegetation patterns and carbon storage in agreement with satellite observations and forest inventory data under the present‐day climate. All simulations showed future increases in tropical woody vegetation over the region at the expense of grasslands. Regional increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (18–36%) and total carbon storage (3–13%) by 2080–2099 compared with the present‐day were common to all simulations. Despite decreases in soil carbon after 2050, seven out of nine simulations continued to show an annual net land carbon sink in the final decades of the 21st century because vegetation biomass continued to increase. The seasonal cycles of rainfall and soil moisture show future increases in wet season rainfall across the GCMs with generally little change in dry season rainfall. Based on the simulated present‐day climate and its future trends, the GCMs can be grouped into four broad categories. Overall, our model results suggest that East Africa, a populous and economically poor region, is likely to experience some ecosystem service benefits through increased precipitation, river runoff and fresh water availability. Resulting enhancements in NPP may lead to improved crop yields in some areas. Our results stand in partial contradiction to other studies that suggest possible negative consequences for agriculture, biodiversity and other ecosystem services caused by temperature increases.     

全球变化下海岸带微生物生态研究进展

海岸带地区是元素循环最活跃的自然区域之一,微生物作为地球元素循环的主要驱动者,对该区域生态系统中物质转化与能量流动起着至关重要的作用。本文从典型海岸带生态系统：海岸带湿地、海草床与海藻森林、近岸水体出发,围绕微生物参与的碳、氮循环过程以及其中的温室气体排放情况,综述了在全球气候变化与人为活动干扰的作用下,海岸带地区的微生物群落对外界环境变化的响应机制以及生态功能维持机制,最后对海岸带系统中微生物生态研究进行了初步的展望。     

Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by regional climate model output

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect together with the direct effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on vegetation growth are expected to produce changes in the cycling of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Impacts will vary across Europe, and regional-scale studies are needed to resolve this variability. In this study, we used the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem model driven by a suite of regional climate model (RCM) scenarios from the European Union (EU) project PRUDENCE to estimate climate impacts on carbon cycling across Europe. We identified similarities and discrepancies in simulated climate impacts across scenarios, particularly analyzing the uncertainties arising from the range of climate models and emissions scenarios considered. Our results suggest that net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) will generally increase throughout Europe, but with considerable variation between European subregions. The smallest NPP increases, and in some cases decreases, occurred in the Mediterranean, where many ecosystems switched from sinks to sources of carbon by 2100, mainly as a result of deteriorating water balance. Over the period 1991–2100, modeled climate change impacts on the European carbon balance ranged from a sink of 11.6 Gt C to a source of 3.3 Gt C, the average annual sink corresponding with 1.85% of the current EU anthropogenic emissions. Projected changes in carbon balance were more dependent on the choice of the general circulation model (GCM) providing boundary conditions to the RCM than the choice of RCM or the level of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions.     

Post‐clearcut dynamics of carbon,water and energy exchanges in a midlatitude temperate,deciduous broadleaf forest environment

Clearcutting and other forest disturbances perturb carbon, water, and energy balances in significant ways, with corresponding influences on Earth's climate system through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Observations are needed to quantify the precise changes in these balances as they vary across diverse disturbances of different types, severities, and in various climate and ecosystem type settings. This study combines eddy covariance and micrometeorological measurements of surface‐atmosphere exchanges with vegetation inventories and chamber‐based estimates of soil respiration to quantify how carbon, water, and energy fluxes changed during the first 3 years following forest clearing in a temperate forest environment of the northeastern US. We observed rapid recovery with sustained increases in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) over the first three growing seasons post‐clearing, coincident with large and relatively stable net emission of CO₂ because of overwhelmingly large ecosystem respiration. The rise in GEP was attributed to vegetation changes not environmental conditions (e.g., weather), but attribution to the expansion of leaf area vs. changes in vegetation composition remains unclear. Soil respiration was estimated to contribute 44% of total ecosystem respiration during summer months and coarse woody debris accounted for another 18%. Evapotranspiration also recovered rapidly and continued to rise across years with a corresponding decrease in sensible heat flux. Gross short‐wave and long‐wave radiative fluxes were stable across years except for strong wintertime dependence on snow covered conditions and corresponding variation in albedo. Overall, these findings underscore the highly dynamic nature of carbon and water exchanges and vegetation composition during the regrowth following a severe forest disturbance, and sheds light on both the magnitude of such changes and the underlying mechanisms with a unique example from a temperate, deciduous broadleaf forest.     

鹤山退化草坡生态系统的自然恢复

研究了鹤山南亚热带退化草坡20a的自然恢复动态,发现群落虽有阳生乔木入侵,但仍处于草本和灌丛占优势的生物多样性较低的阶段;土壤中的有机质、水解氮、有效磷和有效钾等营养元素已基本恢复到同地带顶级森林群落的水平;虽然群落的空间结构与生物多样性尚未恢复,但其部分生态功能已经恢复,其中水土保持最先恢复,生产力等功能还需要较长的时间恢复;对于鹤山草坡这类一般退化生态系统来说,可能需要通过构建合适的人工林来加速生物多样性和生物量等指标的恢复过程,仅仅通过自然恢复是难以在较短的时间内迅速恢复其物质循环等功能的。     

Inversion of terrestrial ecosystem model parameter values against eddy covariance measurements by Monte Carlo sampling

Effective measures to counter the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere require that we better understand the functioning of the global carbon cycle. Uncertainties about, in particular, the terrestrial carbon cycle's response to climate change remain high. We use a well‐known stochastic inversion technique originally developed in nuclear physics, the Metropolis algorithm, to determine the full probability density functions (PDFs) of parameters of a terrestrial ecosystem model. By thus assimilating half‐hourly eddy covariance measurements of CO₂ and water fluxes, we can substantially reduce the uncertainty of approximately five model parameters, depending on prior uncertainties. Further analysis of the posterior PDF shows that almost all parameters are nearly Gaussian distributed, and reveals some distinct groups of parameters that are constrained together. We show that after assimilating only 7 days of measurements, uncertainties for net carbon uptake over 2 years for the forest site can be substantially reduced, with the median estimate in excellent agreement with measurements.     

Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes

Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ‐GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy‐covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model‐measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ‐GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R_h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.     

Estimating carbon carrying capacity in natural forest ecosystems across heterogeneous landscapes: addressing sources of error

Evaluating contributions of forest ecosystems to climate change mitigation requires well‐calibrated carbon cycle models with quantified baseline carbon stocks. An appropriate baseline for carbon accounting of natural forests at landscape scales is carbon carrying capacity (CCC); defined as the mass of carbon stored in an ecosystem under prevailing environmental conditions and natural disturbance regimes but excluding anthropogenic disturbance. Carbon models require empirical measurements for input and calibration, such as net primary production (NPP) and total ecosystem carbon stock (equivalent to CCC at equilibrium). We sought to improve model calibration by addressing three sources of errors that cause uncertainty in carbon accounting across heterogeneous landscapes: (1) data‐model representation, (2) data‐object representation, (3) up‐scaling. We derived spatially explicit empirical models based on environmental variables across landscape scales to estimate NPP (based on a synthesis of global site data of NPP and gross primary productivity, n=27), and CCC (based on site data of carbon stocks in natural eucalypt forests of southeast Australia, n=284). The models significantly improved predictions, each accounting for 51% of the variance. Our methods to reduce uncertainty in baseline carbon stocks, such as using appropriate calibration data from sites with minimal human disturbance, measurements of large trees and incorporating environmental variability across the landscape, have generic application to other regions and ecosystem types. These analyses resulted in forest CCC in southeast Australia (mean total biomass of 360 t C ha^?1, with cool moist temperate forests up to 1000 t C ha^?1) that are larger than estimates from other national and international (average biome 202 t C ha^?1) carbon accounting systems. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of carbon stocks in natural forests is important to allow accurate accounting for losses of carbon due to human activities and sequestration of carbon by forest growth.