Use of response functions in selecting lodgepole pine populations for future climates

Although growth response functions have previously been developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) populations in British Columbia, new analyses were conducted: (1) to demonstrate the merit of a new local climate model in genecological analysis; (2) to highlight new methods for deriving response functions; and (3) to evaluate the impacts of management options for existing geographically defined seed planning units (SPUs) for reforestation. Results of this study suggest that new methods for anchoring population response functions, and a multivariate approach for incorporating climate variables into a single model, considerably improve the reliability of these functions. These functions identified a small number of populations in central areas of the species distribution with greater growth potential over a wide range of mean annual temperature (MAT). Average productivity of lodgepole pine is predicted to increase (up to 7%) if moderate warming (～2°C MAT) occurs in the next few decades as predicted, although productivity would substantially decline in some SPUs in southern BC. Severe global warming (>3°C MAT) would result in either a drastic decline in productivity or local populations being extirpated in southern SPUs. New deployment strategies using the best seed sources for future reforestation may not only be able to mitigate the negative impact of global warming, but may even be able to increase productivity in some areas.     

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity,Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO₂ on water use efficiency, but no direct CO₂ fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Non-equilibrium succession dynamics indicate continued northern migration of lodgepole pine

Because species affect ecosystem functioning, understanding migration processes is a key component of predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. This study provides evidence of range expansion under current climatic conditions of an indigenous species with strong ecosystem effects. Surveys of stands along the northern distribution limit of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in central Yukon Territory, Canada showed consistent increases in pine dominance following fire. These patterns differed strongly from those observed at sites where pine has been present for several thousand years. Differences in species thinning rates are unlikely to account for the observed increases in pine dominance. Rates of pine regeneration at its range limits were equivalent to those of spruce, indicating a capacity for rapid local population expansion. The study also found no evidence of strong climatic limitation of pine population growth at the northern distribution limit. We interpret these data as evidence of current pine expansion at its range limits and conclude that the northern distribution of lodgepole pine is not in equilibrium with current climate. This study has implications for our ability to predict vegetation response to climate change when populations may lag in their response to climate.     

Bioclimatic model of tree radial growth: application to the French Mediterranean Aleppo pine forests

The potential effects of global changes on forests are of increasing concern. Dendrochronology, which deals with long-term records of tree growth under natural environmental conditions, can be used to evaluate the impact of climatic change on forest productivity. However, assessment of climatic change impacts must be supported by accurate and reliable models of the relationships between climate and tree growth. In this study, a bioclimatic model is used to explore the relationships between tree radial growth and bioclimatic variables closely related to the biological functioning of a tree. This model is at an intermediate level of complexity between purely empirical and process-based models. The method is illustrated with data for 21 Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) stands grown under a Mediterranean climate in south-east France. The results show that Aleppo pine growth is mainly controlled by soil water availability during the growing season. The bioclimatic variable which best expresses the observed inter-annual tree growth variations is the actual evapotranspiration (AET). Four parameters were adjusted to simulate dendrochronological data: the soil water capacity, the wilting point, the minimum temperature for photosynthesis, and the end of the growing season. The bioclimatic model gives better results than the standard response function and provides better insight into the functional processes involved in tree growth. The convincing results obtained by the bioclimatic model as well as the limited numbers of parameters it requires demonstrate the feasibility of using it to explore future climatic change impacts on Aleppo pine forests.     

Variation on reaction norm in lodgepole pine natural populations

Variations on the norm of reaction among ten natural lodgepole pine populations sampled from three lodgepole pine subspecies (Pinus contorta ssp. contorta, ssp. latifolia and ssp. murrayana) were studied by using 20 year heights measured in 57 provenance test sites across interior British Columbia (B.C.). There were significant population by site interactions. Concurrent joint regression and the AMMI model were used to dissect these population by environmental interactions. Joint regression analysis indicated that three populations (from the northwest) had a negative linear regression coefficient with environmental deviation, three (from central and southeast sites) had a positive regression coefficient and four (from the southwest) had a zero regression coefficient. The AMMI model revealed a similar pattern of reaction norm among the ten populations. But the three significant IPCA axes, which captured twice as much of the G × E sum of squares than joint regression, were more effective in separating the ten populations and associating their performance with the climate of test sites and their origin. The variation patterns of reaction norm in lodgepole pine populations demonstrated that adaptation of lodgepole pine natural populations to the various physical environments, at sub-species as well as at population level, was due largely to a balance between selection for high growth potential in less severe environments and selection for high cold hardiness in severe environments. Received: 4 May 2000 / Accepted: 10 November 2000     

Variation in the suitability of Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine) to feeding by three pine defoliators, Panolis flammea, Neodiprion sertifer and Zeiraphera diniana

A series of experiments were carried out on Pinus contorta Dougl. in Scotland to establish if there were any inter-provenance differences in suitability to three major forest pests: the pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea (D and S) (Lep., Noctuidae), the European pine sawfly, Neodiprion sertifer (Geoff.) (Hym., Diprionidae), and the larch bud moth Zeiraphera diniana Guennée (Lep., Tortricidae). There were significant differences in the survival, weight, and development time of P. flammea on different provenances of seedling logepole pine. Southern interior lodgepole pine (ILP) proved to be the most resistant provenance. Larvae performed significantly better on Alaskan lodgepole pine (ALP) and Skeena River lodgepole pine (ELP). Panolis flammea larvae showed significant feeding preference for certain provenances of mature lodgepole pine, with ILP being preferred to ALP, north coastal lodgepole pine, and Scots pine. There were significant differences in the mean relative growth rate of N. sertifer on different provenances of seedling and mature trees. ALP was the most resistant provenance among seedling trees, but the least resistant among mature trees. There were also significant differences in survival on foliage from mature provenances. There were no significant differences in survival of second instar Z. diniana on different provenances of mature lodgepole pine.     

Asynchrony in larval development of the pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, on an introduced host plant may affect parasitoid efficacy

In the United Kingdom, Panolis flammea (Den. and Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important pest species of the introduced lodgepole pine but not of its natural host Scots pine. The timing of P. flammea larval growth must be synchronized with its host tree if the larvae are to succeed. We collected field data during 1990 which revealed that the phenological window starts earlier in Scots pine and is shorter than that observed in lodgepole pine. The larvae are found in the field earlier and within a narrower time frame within a Scots pine forest than in a lodgepole pine forest. The larval developmental period is significantly longer on lodgepole pine than on Scots pine. The synchrony/asynchrony of P. flammea to its natural host (Scots pine) and an introduced tree (lodgepole pine) results in the parasitoids having a different impact on the larvae of the two hosts. At any one time, the host plant, caterpillars and parasitoids are more synchronous on the ancestral Scots pine than on lodgepole pine, resulting in a higher percentage of larvae in the optimal instar for parasitism at that time. In lodgepole pine, the percentage of suitable instars available to parasitoids is lower at any given time. The information presented here furthers our understanding of the possible mechanisms for the observed differential population dynamics of the insect on Scots pine and lodgepole pine in the UK. Handling editor: Robert Glinwood.     

Picturing local adaptation: Spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing reveal clinal responses to climate transfer in common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca)

Common-garden trials of forest trees provide phenotype data used to assess growth and local adaptation; this information is foundational to tree breeding programs, genecology, and gene conservation. As jurisdictions consider assisted migration strategies to match populations to suitable climates, in situ progeny and provenance trials provide experimental evidence of adaptive responses to climate change. We used drone technology, multispectral imaging, and digital aerial photogrammetry to quantify spectral traits related to stress, photosynthesis, and carotenoids, and structural traits describing crown height, size, and complexity at six climatically disparate common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca) in western Canada. Through principal component analysis, we identified key components of climate related to temperature, moisture, and elevational gradients. Phenotypic clines in remotely sensed traits were analyzed as trait correlations with provenance climate transfer distances along principal components (PCs). We used traits showing clinal variation to model best linear unbiased predictions for tree height (R² = .98–.99, root mean square error [RMSE] = 0.06–0.10 m) and diameter at breast height (DBH, R² = .71–.97, RMSE = 2.57–3.80 mm) and generated multivariate climate transfer functions with the model predictions. Significant (p < .05) clines were present for spectral traits at all sites along all PCs. Spectral traits showed stronger clinal variation than structural traits along temperature and elevational gradients and along moisture gradients at wet, coastal sites, but not at dry, interior sites. Spectral traits may capture patterns of local adaptation to temperature and montane growing seasons which are distinct from moisture-limited patterns in stem growth. This work demonstrates that multispectral indices improve the assessment of local adaptation and that spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing produce reliable proxies for ground-measured height and DBH. This phenotyping framework contributes to the analysis of common-garden trials towards a mechanistic understanding of local adaptation to climate.     

Ecohydrology of Adjacent Sagebrush and Lodgepole Pine Ecosystems: The Consequences of Climate Change and Disturbance

Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.     

Spatiotemporal variation in the relationship between boreal forest productivity proxies and climate data

The impacts of climate change on high-latitude forest ecosystems are still uncertain. Divergent forest productivity trends have recently been reported both at the local and regional level challenging the projections of boreal tree growth dynamics. The present study investigated (i) the responses of different forest productivity proxies to monthly climate (temperature and precipitation) through space and time; and (ii) the local coherency between these proxies through time at four high-latitude boreal Scots pine sites (coastal and inland) in Norway. Forest productivity proxies consisted of two proxies representing stem growth dynamics (radial and height growth) and one proxy representing canopy dynamics (cumulative May-to-September Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Between-proxy and climate-proxy correlations were computed over the 1982–2011 period and over two 15-yr sub-periods. Over the entire period, radial growth significantly correlated with current year July temperature, and height growth and cumulative NDVI significantly correlated with previous and current growing season temperatures. Significant climate responses were quite similar across sites, despite some higher sensitivity to non-growing season climate at inland sites. Significant climate-proxy correlations identified over the entire period were temporarily unstable. Local coherency between proxies was generally insignificant. The spatiotemporal instability in climate-proxy correlations observed for all proxies underlines evolving responses to climate and challenges the modelling of forest productivity. The general lack of local coherency between proxies at our four study sites suggests that forest productivity estimations based on a single proxy should be considered with great caution. The combined use of different forest growth metrics may help circumvent uncertainties in capturing responses of forest productivity to climate variability and improve estimations of carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems.     

不列颠·哥伦比亚省北部小杆松及白云杉立地指数与生态立地质量的关系

为在ＰｒｉｎｃｅＲｕｐｅｒｔ林区的“亚北方”部分建立生态立地质量与森林生产力的联系,对从９３个小杆松林分和７７个白云杉林分获得的数据进行了分析．所研究的林分处于两个气候状况、８个土壤水分状况以及５个土壤养分状况．这些气候、土壤水分和养分状况被视为等级变量用于林地分类和回归分析．小杆松和白云杉的立地指数随土壤水分和养分状况变化而变化,但不依赖于气候变化．与土壤水分相关的变化格局对两个种来说很相似,但与土壤养分相关的变化格局则全然不同．在所建立的５类回归模型中,土壤小区模型对于两个种都显示出立地指数与土壤水分和养分状况具有很强的相互关系（Ｒ２＞０．８０,ＳＥＥ≤１．６ｍ）．可以认为土壤水分和养分的等级度量在大范围内可作为小杆松和白云杉立地指数的预测预报因子．     

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15‐year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021–2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer–autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15‐year period. However, their predictions for the 2021–2080 period diverged. Rainfall‐based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance‐based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer–autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century.     

北京山区3种暖温带森林生态系统未来碳平衡的模拟与分析

使用LPJ-GUESS植被动态模型, 在北京山区研究了未来100a以辽东栎 (Quercus liaotungensis) 为优势种的落叶阔叶林、以白桦 (Betula platyphylla) 为主的阔叶林和油松 (Pinus tabulaeformis) 为优势种的针阔混交林的碳变化, 定量分析了生态系统净初级生产力 (NPP) 、土壤异养呼吸 (Rh) 、净生态系统碳交换 (NEE) 和碳生物量 (Carbon bio-mass) 对两种未来气候情景 (SRES A2和B2) 以及相应大气CO2浓度变化情景的响应特征。结果表明:1) 未来100a两种气候情景下3种森林生态系统的NPP和Rh均增加, 并且A2情景下增加的程度更大;2) 由于3种生态系统树种组成的不同, 未来气候情景下各自NPP和Rh增加的比例不同, 导致三者NEE的变化也相异:100a后辽东栎林由碳汇转变为弱碳源, 白桦林仍保持为碳汇但功能减弱, 油松林成为一个更大的碳汇;3) 3种森林生态系统的碳生物量在未来气候情景下均增大, 21世纪末与20世纪末相比:辽东栎林在A2情景下碳生物量增加的比例为27.6%, 大于B2情景下的19.3%;白桦林和油松林在B2情景下碳生物量增加的比例分别为34.2%和52.2%, 大于A2情景下的30.8%和28.4%。     

Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in forest responses to a warming climate

The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open‐top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 °C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO₂ assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17° to 34° were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 °C to 1.07 °C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.     

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.     

Influence of forest structure on the abundance of snowshoe hares in western Wyoming

Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) are a primary prey species for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in western North America. Lynx management plans require knowledge of potential prey distribution and abundance in the western United States. Whether even-aged regenerating forests or multi-storied forests contain more snowshoe hares is currently unknown. During 2006–2008, we estimated snowshoe hare density in 3 classes of 30–70-year-old lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and 4 classes of late seral multi-storied forest with a spruce (Picea engelmannii)-fir (Abies lasiocarpa) component in the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming. We recorded physiographic variables and forest structure characteristics to understand how these factors influence abundance of snowshoe hares. In many instances, snowshoe hares were more abundant in late seral multi-storied forests than regenerating even-aged forests. Forest attributes predicting hare abundance were often more prevalent in multi-storied forests. Late seral multi-storied forests with a spruce–fir component and dense horizontal cover, as well as 30–70-year-old lodgepole pine with high stem density, were disproportionately influential in explaining snowshoe hare densities in western Wyoming. In order to promote improved habitat conditions for snowshoe hares in this region, management agencies should consider shifting their focus towards maintaining, enhancing, and promoting multi-storied forests with dense horizontal cover, as well as developing 30–70-year-old lodgepole pine stands with high stem density that structurally mimic multi-storied forests. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

伊春地区红松和红皮云杉径向生长对气候变化的响应

树木生长-气候关系对准确评估气候变化对森林生态系统影响、预测森林生产力与植被动态及揭示树木对气候变化的响适应策略至关重要。在全球变暖背景下,升温可能会对树木的生长产生影响,从而改变区域森林生态系统的生产力或碳储量。本研究利用生长-气候响应函数、滑动相关分析等树木年轮学方法,探讨伊春地区阔叶红松林内红松和红皮云杉径向生长的主要限制因子及两者径向生长对快速升温(1980年后)响应的异同。结果表明:1980年前红松径向生长有明显加速的趋势,红皮云杉上升趋势较弱;而1980年后红松径向生长趋势显著下降,红皮云杉则下降不明显。红皮云杉径向生长与上一年9月及当年6月平均气温显著负相关,而红松径向生长与上一年12月及当年1月、4月和6月最低气温显著正相关。1980年快速升温后,高温对两树种生长的抑制作用增强,尤其是红松。生长季末(9月)降水对红松和红皮云杉的限制作用由升温前的负相关转变为升温后的显著正相关。温度是限制红松和红皮云杉径向生长的主要气候因子,降水影响相对较弱;其中红松径向生长对气候变化的响应比红皮云杉更敏感。快速升温后,红松和红皮云杉生长-气候关系的变化可能与升温导致的暖干旱化有关。若气候变暖持续或加剧,二者径向生长的气候限制因子也将由温度转变为水分;红松和红皮云杉会出现生长衰退,尤其是红松。     

Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases

1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.