Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago – Svalbard,Norway

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore–predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long‐term (multidecadal) demographic, population‐ and ecosystem‐based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.     

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.     

Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio‐economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size‐classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.     

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.     

Biology of the Greenland shark Somniosus microcephalus

Greenland shark Somniosus microcephalus is a potentially important yet poorly studied cold-water species inhabiting the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Broad-scale changes in the Arctic ecosystem as a consequence of climate change have led to increased attention on trophic dynamics and the role of potential apex predators such as S. microcephalus in the structure of Arctic marine food webs. Although Nordic and Inuit populations have caught S. microcephalus for centuries, the species is of limited commercial interest among modern industrial fisheries. Here, the limited historical information available on S. microcephalus occurrence and ecology is reviewed and new catch, biological and life-history information from the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean region is provided. Given the considerable by-catch rates in high North Atlantic Ocean latitudes it is suggested that S. microcephalus is an abundant predator that plays an important, yet unrecognized, role in Arctic marine ecosystems. Slow growth and large pup sizes, however, may make S. microcephalus vulnerable to increased fishing pressure in a warming Arctic environment.     

Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.     

Shifts in the composition and distribution of Pacific Arctic larval fish assemblages in response to rapid ecosystem change

The Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem has undergone rapid changes in recent years due to ocean warming, sea ice loss, and increased northward transport of Pacific-origin waters into the Arctic. These climate-mediated changes have been linked to range shifts of juvenile and adult subarctic (boreal) and Arctic fish populations, though it is unclear whether distributional changes are also occurring during the early life stages. We analyzed larval fish abundance and distribution data sampled in late summer from 2010 to 2019 in two interconnected Pacific Arctic ecosystems: the northern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, to determine whether recent warming and loss of sea ice has restricted habitat for Arctic species and altered larval fish assemblage composition from Arctic- to boreal-associated taxa. Multivariate analyses revealed the presence of three distinct multi-species assemblages across all years: (1) a boreal assemblage dominated by yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera), capelin (Mallotus catervarius), and walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus); (2) an Arctic assemblage composed of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and other common Arctic species; and (3) a mixed assemblage composed of the dominant species from the other two assemblages. We found that the wind- and current-driven northward advection of warmer, subarctic waters and the unprecedented low-ice conditions observed in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas beginning in 2017 and persisting into 2018 and 2019 have precipitated community-wide shifts, with the boreal larval fish assemblage expanding northward and offshore and the Arctic assemblage retreating poleward. We conclude that Arctic warming is most significantly driving changes in abundance at the leading and trailing edges of the Chukchi Sea larval fish community as boreal species increase in abundance and Arctic species decline. Our analyses document how quickly larval fish assemblages respond to environmental change and reveal that the impacts of Arctic borealization on fish community composition spans multiple life stages over large spatial scales.     

Not just about sunburn – the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems

Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet‐B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December–February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet‐B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion.     

Gender Specific Reproductive Strategies of an Arctic Key Species (Boreogadus saida) and Implications of Climate Change

The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today''s Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.     

高寒生态系统微生物群落研究进展

高寒生态系统分布在高纬度或高海拔、气候寒冷的地区,包括北极苔原、高山苔原、青藏高原等.高寒生态系统对气候变化非常敏感,其土壤中储存大量的有机碳,对全球的碳平衡起关键作用.微生物是生物地球化学循环的主要驱动者,微生物群落对气候变化的响应和反馈影响生态系统的功能与稳定性.本文回顾了高寒生态系统微生物群落组成、多样性与空间分布,以及微生物群落对气候变化(增温、氮沉降、火干扰)的响应,为拓展我国高寒生态系统微生物研究提供基础.     

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.     

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty‐first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non‐native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non‐native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink.     

Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts

Aim Shifts in species ranges are a predicted and realized effect of global climate change; however, few studies have addressed the rates and consequence of such shifts, particularly in marine systems. Given ecological similarities between shifting and introduced species, we examined how our understanding of range shifts may be informed by the more established study of non‐native species introductions. Location Marine systems world‐wide. Methods Database and citation searches were used to identify 129 marine species experiencing range shifts and to determine spread rates and impacts on recipient communities. Analyses of spread rates were based on studies for which post‐establishment spread was reported in linear distance. The sizes of the effects of community impacts of shifting species were compared with those of functionally similar introduced species having ecologically similar impacts. Results Our review and meta‐analyses revealed that: (1) 75% of the range shifts found through the database search were in the poleward direction, consistent with climate change scenarios, (2) spread rates of range shifts were lower than those of introductions, (3) shifting species spread over an order of magnitude faster in marine than in terrestrial systems, and (4) directions of community effects were largely negative and magnitudes were often similar for shifters and introduced species; however, this comparison was limited by few data for range‐shifting species. Main conclusions Although marine range shifts are likely to proceed more slowly than marine introductions, the community‐level effects could be as great, and in the same direction, as those of introduced species. Because it is well‐established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change. Regardless of habitat, consideration of range shifts in the context of invasion biology can improve our understanding of what to expect from climate change‐driven shifts as well as provide tools for formal assessment of risks to community structure and function.     

Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.     

Interdecadal changes in at‐sea distribution and abundance of subantarctic seabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean

Long‐term demographic studies have recently shown that global climate change together with increasing direct impacts of human activities, such as fisheries, are affecting the population dynamics of marine top predators. However, the effects of these factors on species distribution and abundance at sea are still poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems of the southern hemisphere. Using a unique long‐term data set of at‐sea observations, we tested for interdecadal (1980s vs. 2000s) changes in summer abundance and distribution of 12 species of Albatrosses and Petrels along a 30° latitudinal gradient between tropical and Antarctic waters of the southern Indian Ocean. There were contrasting effects of climate change on subantarctic seabird distribution and abundance at sea. While subtropical waters showed the highest rate of warming, the species that visited this water mass showed the greatest changes in distribution and abundance. The abundance of Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans), White‐chinned Petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) and Giant Petrels (Macronectes sp.) declined markedly, whereas the other species showed contrasting trends or did not change. With the exception of the White‐chinned Petrel, these decreases were at least partly related to regional increase in sea surface temperature. The southward shift of Wandering Albatross and Prions (Pachyptila spp.) distributions could be ascribed to species redistribution or decrease in abundance due to warming of the subtropical waters. Surprisingly, White‐chinned Petrel distribution shifted northward, suggesting more complex mechanisms. This study is the first to document a shift in species range in the Southern Ocean related to climate change and contrasting abundance changes. It suggests that some species might experience more severe impacts from climate change depending on the water masses they visit. As climate changes are predicted to continue in the next decades, understanding species responses to climate change is crucial for conservation management, especially when their conservation status is critical or unknown.     

Assembly rules of reef corals are flexible along a steep climatic gradient

Coral reefs, one of the world's most complex and vulnerable ecosystems, face an uncertain future in coming decades as they continue to respond to anthropogenic climate change, overfishing, pollution, and other human impacts [1, 2]. Traditionally, marine macroecology is based on presence/absence data from taxonomic checklists or geographic ranges, providing a qualitative overview of spatial shifts in species richness that treats rare and common species equally [3, 4]. As a consequence, regional and long-term shifts in relative abundances of individual taxa are poorly understood. Here we apply a more rigorous quantitative approach to examine large-scale spatial variation in the species composition and abundance of corals on midshelf reefs along the length of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, a biogeographic region where species richness is high and relatively homogeneous [5]. We demonstrate that important functional components of coral assemblages "sample" space differently at 132 sites separated by up to 1740 km, leading to complex latitudinal shifts in patterns of absolute and relative abundance. The flexibility in community composition that we document along latitudinal environmental gradients indicates that climate change is likely to result in a reassortment of coral reef taxa rather than wholesale loss of entire reef ecosystems.     

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature.     

Assessing five decades of change in a high Arctic parasitoid community

Arctic ecosystems are fragile, and are particularly sensitive to the pressures of climate change. Both average temperature and precipitation have increased over the past five decades on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in the high Arctic. Altered growth forms and increased biomass in dominant plant species on Ellesmere Island have been observed concurrent with the changing climate, but shifts in the diversity or rank abundance of plant and bird species have not been detected. Changes in diversity may take longer to appear, or may be assessed better using organisms with shorter generation times such as insects. We explored the ecological impacts of climate change on Ellesmere Island using historical and contemporary communities of ichneumonid wasps. We compared community diversity, functional composition, and body size of two common species using ichneumonid specimens collected in 1961–1965, 1980–1982, 1989–1992, and 2010. We found high compositional similarity between collections, overlapping estimates of species richness, no change in the proportion of idiobiont genera in the community, and no clear pattern in body size over time. The greatest amount of variation over time was detected in parasitoids of herbivores; proportionally fewer herbivore‐parasitizing genera were found in 2010 than in historical collections, and the two genera that were only found in one of the four collections were both parasitoids of herbivores. Our results point to the need to assess climate change effects in Arctic systems using a range of taxa, and responses to large‐scale environmental disturbances may be idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.     

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low‐latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long‐lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.     

Environmental drivers of macroinvertebrate communities in high Arctic rivers (Svalbard)

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