Marine range shifts and species introductions: comparative spread rates and community impacts

Aim Shifts in species ranges are a predicted and realized effect of global climate change; however, few studies have addressed the rates and consequence of such shifts, particularly in marine systems. Given ecological similarities between shifting and introduced species, we examined how our understanding of range shifts may be informed by the more established study of non‐native species introductions. Location Marine systems world‐wide. Methods Database and citation searches were used to identify 129 marine species experiencing range shifts and to determine spread rates and impacts on recipient communities. Analyses of spread rates were based on studies for which post‐establishment spread was reported in linear distance. The sizes of the effects of community impacts of shifting species were compared with those of functionally similar introduced species having ecologically similar impacts. Results Our review and meta‐analyses revealed that: (1) 75% of the range shifts found through the database search were in the poleward direction, consistent with climate change scenarios, (2) spread rates of range shifts were lower than those of introductions, (3) shifting species spread over an order of magnitude faster in marine than in terrestrial systems, and (4) directions of community effects were largely negative and magnitudes were often similar for shifters and introduced species; however, this comparison was limited by few data for range‐shifting species. Main conclusions Although marine range shifts are likely to proceed more slowly than marine introductions, the community‐level effects could be as great, and in the same direction, as those of introduced species. Because it is well‐established that introduced species are a primary threat to global biodiversity, it follows that, just like introductions, range shifts have the potential to seriously affect biological systems. In addition, given that ranges shift faster in marine than terrestrial environments, marine communities might be affected faster than terrestrial ones as species shift with climate change. Regardless of habitat, consideration of range shifts in the context of invasion biology can improve our understanding of what to expect from climate change‐driven shifts as well as provide tools for formal assessment of risks to community structure and function.     

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high‐resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery‐independent and ‐dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems—the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate‐driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature‐based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature‐based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management.     

Climate‐driven substitution of habitat‐forming species leads to reduced biodiversity within a temperate marine community

Aim

In marine ecosystems, habitat‐forming species (HFS) such as reef‐building corals and canopy‐forming macroalgae alter local environmental conditions and can promote biodiversity by providing biogenic living space for a vast array of associated organisms. We examined community‐level impacts of observed climate‐driven shifts in the relative abundances of two superficially similar HFS, the warm‐water kelp Laminaria ochroleuca and the cool‐water kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Location

Western English Channel, north‐east Atlantic

Methods

We compared algal and invertebrate assemblages associated with kelp stipes and holdfasts, across multiple sites and sampling events. Significant differences were recorded in the structure of assemblages between the host kelp species at each site and event.

Results

Assemblages associated with stipes of the cool‐water HFS were, on average, >12 times more diverse and supported >3600 times more biomass compared with the warm‐water HFS. Holdfast assemblages also differed significantly between species, although to a lesser extent than those associated with stipes. Overall, assemblages associated with the warm‐water HFS were markedly impoverished and comprised far fewer rare or unique taxa.

Main conclusions

While previous research has shown how climate‐driven loss of HFS can cause biodiversity loss, our study demonstrates that climate‐driven substitutions of HFS can also lead to impoverished assemblages. The indirect effects of climate change remain poorly resolved, but shifts in the distributions and abundances of HFS may invoke widespread ecological change, especially in marine ecosystems where facilitative interactions are particularly strong.     

CLIMATE‐DRIVEN DIVERSIFICATION AND PLEISTOCENE REFUGIA IN PHILIPPINE BIRDS: EVIDENCE FROM PHYLOGEOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE AND PALEOENVIRONMENTAL NICHE MODELING

Avian diversification in oceanic archipelagos is largely attributed to isolation across marine barriers. During glacial maxima, lowered sea levels resulted in repeated land connections between islands joined by shallow seas. Consequently, such islands are not expected to show endemism. However, if climate fluctuations simultaneously caused shifts in suitable environmental conditions, limiting populations to refugia, then occurrence on and dispersal across periodic land bridges are not tenable. To assess the degree to which paleoclimate barriers, rather than marine barriers, drove avian diversification in the Philippine Archipelago, we produced ecological niche models for current‐day, glacial maxima, and interglacial climate scenarios to infer potential Pleistocene distributions and paleoclimate barriers. We then tested marine and paleoclimate barriers for correspondence to geographic patterns of population divergence, inferred from DNA sequences from eight codistributed bird species. In all species, deep‐water channels corresponded to zones of genetic differentiation, but six species exhibited deeper divergence associated with a periodic land bridge in the southern Philippines. Ecological niche models for these species identified a common paleoclimate barrier that coincided with deep genetic structure among populations. Although dry land connections joined southern Philippine islands during low sea level stands, unfavorable environmental conditions limited populations within landmasses, resulting in long‐term isolation and genetic differentiation. These results highlight the complex nature of diversification in archipelagos: marine barriers, changes in connectivity due to sea level change, and climate‐induced refugia acted in concert to produce great species diversity and endemism in the Philippines.     

Contrasting trait assembly patterns in plant and bird communities along environmental and human‐induced land‐use gradients

Human‐driven environmental changes can induce marked shifts in the functional structure of biological communities with possible repercussion on important ecosystem functions and services. At the same time it remains unclear to which extent these changes may differently affect various types of organisms. We investigated species richness and community functional structure of species assemblages at the landscape scale (1 km² plots) for two contrasting model taxa, i.e. plants (producers and sessile organisms) and birds (consumers and mobile organisms), along topography, climate, landscape heterogeneity, and land‐use (agriculture and urbanization) gradients in a densely populated region of Switzerland. Our study revealed that agricultural and urban land uses drove marked shifts in the functional structure of biological communities compared to changes along climate and topography gradients, especially for plants, while for birds these changes were comparable. Agricultural and urban land uses enhanced divergence in traits related to resource use for birds (diet and nesting), growth forms, dispersal, and reproductive traits for plants, while it induced convergence in vegetative plant traits (plant height and leaf dry matter content). These results suggest that contrasting assembly patterns may arise within and across taxonomic groups along the same environmental gradients as result of distinct underlying processes and ‘organism‐specific’ environmental perceptions. Our results further suggest a potential homogenization of biological communities, as well as low functional diversity and redundancy levels of bird assemblages in our human‐dominated study region. This might potentially compromise the maintenance of key ecological processes under future environmental changes.     

Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to address a wide range of theoretical and applied questions in the terrestrial realm, but marine‐based applications remain relatively scarce. In this review, we consider how conceptual and practical issues associated with terrestrial SDMs apply to a range of marine organisms and highlight the challenges relevant to improving marine SDMs. Location We include studies from both marine and terrestrial systems that encompass many geographic locations around the globe. Methods We first performed a literature search and analysis of marine and terrestrial SDMs in ISI Web of Science to assess trends and applications. Using knowledge from terrestrial applications, we critically evaluate the application of SDMs in marine systems in the context of ecological factors (dispersal, species interactions, aggregation and ontogenetic shifts) and practical considerations (data quality, alternative modelling approaches and model validation) that facilitate or create difficulties for model application. Results The relative importance of ecological factors to be considered when applying SDMs varies among terrestrial and marine organisms. Correctly incorporating dispersal is frequently considered an important issue for terrestrial models, but because there is greater potential for dispersal in the ocean, it is often less of a concern in marine SDMs. By contrast, ontogenetic shifts and feeding have received little attention in terrestrial SDM applications, but these factors are important to many marine SDMs. Opportunities also exist for applying more advanced SDM approaches in the marine realm, including mechanistic ecophysiological models, where water balance and heat transfer equations are simpler for some marine organisms relative to their terrestrial counterparts. Main conclusions SDMs have generally been under‐utilized in the marine realm relative to terrestrial applications. Correlative SDM methods should be tested on a range of marine organisms, and we suggest further development of methods that address ontogenetic shifts and feeding interactions. We anticipate developments in, and cross‐fertilization between, coupled correlative and process‐based SDMs, mechanistic eco‐physiological SDMs, and spatial population dynamic models for climate change and species invasion applications in particular. Comparisons of the outputs of different model types will provide insight that is useful for improved spatial management of marine species.     

Niche shift can impair the ability to predict invasion risk in the marine realm: an illustration using Mediterranean fish invaders

Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species‐climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo‐Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.     

Zooplankton species composition is linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current

In the Northern California Current (NCC), zooplankton communities show interannual and multiyear shifts in species dominance that are tracked by survival of salmon populations. These zooplankton community changes correlate with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index: a ‘warm‐water’ copepod species group is more abundant during warm (positive) phases of the PDO and less abundant during cold (negative) phases; the reverse occurs for a ‘cold‐water’ species group. The observed relationship led to the hypothesis that the relative dominance of warm/cold‐water copepods in the NCC is driven by changes in the horizontal advection of surface water over different phases of the PDO. To test this hypothesis, variation in surface water advection to coastal regions of the NCC over the period of 1950–2008 was investigated using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and passive tracer experiments, then was compared with zooplankton collected off Oregon since 1996. Results showed that surface water advection varied with the phase of the PDO; the low‐frequency component of advection anomalies strongly correlated with copepod species composition (R>0.9). During positive phases of the PDO, current anomalies were northward and onshore, resulting in transport of warmer waters and the associated copepods into the region. During negatives phases, increased equatorward current anomalies led to a copepod community that was dominated by cold‐water taxa. Our results support the hypothesis that climate‐driven changes in basin‐scale circulation controls copepod community composition in the NCC, and demonstrate that large‐scale climate forcings downscale to influence local and regional ecosystem structure.     

Pelagic marine refugia and climatically sensitive areas in an eastern boundary current upwelling system

Refugia are areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological, or sociocultural resources. Spatially identifying refugia is important for conservation and applied management. Yet the concept of refugia has not been broadly extended to marine ecosystems. Here, we analyze data from a unique and long‐term (1999–2015) standardized survey of pelagic marine and anadromous species off Oregon and Washington in the northern California Current to identify such refugia. We use quantitative approaches to assess locations with high species richness and community persistence relative to local and basin‐scale environmental fluctuations. We have identified a potential climate change refugial zone along the continental shelf of Washington State in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, characterized by a species‐rich community with low interannual temporal community change. This region contrasts with adjacent areas to the south and offshore that have lower species richness, and higher temporal species community change. Also, using spatially variant generalized additive mixed models, we identify areas with species compositions that are more influenced by basin‐scale climatic fluctuations than others. We propose that upwelling regions with retentive topographic features, such as wide continental shelves, can function as marine refugia for pelagic fauna, whereas offshore locations are potentially more climatically sensitive and experience high temporal change in species composition. Further identification of these marine refugia using in situ data for pelagic biodiversity and climatically sensitive areas can help guide management in the face of inevitable climatically driven change.     

Twenty‐five years of plant community dynamics and invasion in New Zealand tussock grasslands

Understanding how plant communities respond to plant invasions is important both for understanding community structure and for predicting future ecosystem change. In a system undergoing intense plant invasion for 25 years, we investigated patterns of community change at a regional scale. Specifically, we sought to quantify how tussock grassland plant community structure had changed and whether changes were related to increases in plant invasion. Frequency data for all vascular plants were recorded on 124, permanent transects in tussock grasslands across the lower eastern South Island of New Zealand measured three times over a period of 25 years. Multivariate analyses of species richness were used to describe spatial and temporal patterns in the vegetation. Linear mixed‐effects models were used to relate temporal changes in community structure to the level and rate of invasion of three dominant invasive species in the genus Hieracium while accounting for relationships with other biotic and abiotic variables. There was a strong compositional gradient from exotic‐ to native‐dominated plant communities that correlated with increasing elevation. Over the 25 years, small‐scale species richness significantly decreased and then increased again; however, these changes differed in different plant communities. Exotic species frequency consistently increased on some transects and consistently declined on others. Species richness changes were correlated with the level of Hieracium invasion and abiotic factors, although the relationship with Hieracium changed from negative to positive over time. Compositional changes were not related to measured predictors. Our results suggest that observed broad‐scale fluctuations in species richness and community composition dynamics were not driven by Hieracium invasion. Given the relatively minor changes in community composition over time, we conclude that there is no evidence for widespread degradation of these grasslands over the last 25 years. However, because of continuing weed invasion, particularly at lower elevations, impacts may emerge in the longer term.     

N:P stoichiometric changes via species turnover in arid versus saline desert environments

1. Aridity and salinity have a key role in driving physiological and ecological processes in desert ecosystems. However, how community‐scale foliar nutrients respond to aridity and salinity, and how these responses might vary with community composition along aridity and salinity gradients is unclear. We hypothesize that the response will be a shift in community stoichiometric values resulting from nutrient variability of shared species and unique species (site‐specific species), but little research has addressed the relative contribution of either component.
2. We analyzed the community‐scale stoichiometric response of a desert community of perennial plants along an aridity and salinity transect by focusing on foliar nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations and N:P ratios. After evaluating the shared and unique species variability, we determined their relative contribution to the community stoichiometric response to aridity and salinity, reflected by changes in nonweighted and weighted community‐average values.
3. Community‐scale stoichiometry decreased significantly under aridity and salinity, with significantly consistent changes in nonweighted and weighted community‐average stoichiometry for most shared and unique species measurements. The relative contribution of unique species shifts to the changes in community stoichiometry was greater (15%–77%) than the relative contribution of shared species shifts (7%–45%), excluding the change in weighted P concentration under aridity. Thus, the shifts of unique species amplified the community stoichiometric response to environmental changes.
4. Synthesis. These results highlighted the need for a more in‐depth consideration of shared and unique species variability to understand and predict the effects of environmental change on the stoichiometry of plant communities. Although variation in community stoichiometry can be expected under extreme aridity and salinity conditions, changes of unique species could be a more important driver of the stoichiometric response of plant communities.

     

Rewiring and indirect effects underpin modularity reshuffling in a marine food web under environmental shifts

Species are characterized by physiological and behavioral plasticity, which is part of their response to environmental shifts. Nonetheless, the collective response of ecological communities to environmental shifts cannot be predicted from the simple sum of individual species responses, since co‐existing species are deeply entangled in interaction networks, such as food webs. For these reasons, the relation between environmental forcing and the structure of food webs is an open problem in ecology. To this respect, one of the main problems in community ecology is defining the role each species plays in shaping community structure, such as by promoting the subdivision of food webs in modules—that is, aggregates composed of species that more frequently interact—which are reported as community stabilizers. In this study, we investigated the relationship between species roles and network modularity under environmental shifts in a highly resolved food web, that is, a “weighted” ecological network reproducing carbon flows among marine planktonic species. Measuring network properties and estimating weighted modularity, we show that species have distinct roles, which differentially affect modularity and mediate structural modifications, such as modules reconfiguration, induced by environmental shifts. Specifically, short‐term environmental changes impact the abundance of planktonic primary producers; this affects their consumers’ behavior and cascades into the overall rearrangement of trophic links. Food web re‐adjustments are both direct, through the rewiring of trophic‐interaction networks, and indirect, with the reconfiguration of trophic cascades. Through such “systemic behavior,” that is, the way the food web acts as a whole, defined by the interactions among its parts, the planktonic food web undergoes a substantial rewiring while keeping almost the same global flow to upper trophic levels, and energetic hierarchy is maintained despite environmental shifts. This behavior suggests the potentially high resilience of plankton networks, such as food webs, to dramatic environmental changes, such as those provoked by global change.     

Invasion by the amphipod Gammarus pulex alters community composition of native freshwater macroinvertebrates

Assessing the effects of invading species on native community structure is often confounded by environmental factors and weakened by lack of replicated, long-term pre- and post-invasion monitoring. Here, we uncouple the community effects of a freshwater amphipod invader from environmental differences. In Irish rivers, the introduced Gammarus pulex replaces the native Gammarus duebeni celticus . However, the River Lissan in Northern Ireland is dissected by a weir that has slowed the upstream invasion by G. pulex . This allowed us in 2000 to sample three contiguous 150-m reaches that were (1) G. pulex dominated; (2) mixed Gammarus spp.; and (3) G. duebeni celticus only. In 2003, we resampled these reaches and one additional of mixed Gammarus species and one with only G. duebeni celticus further upstream. In temperature, conductivity, and pH, there were statistically significant but no biologically relevant differences among the five reaches of 2003, and between the three reaches surveyed in both years. Although there was evidence of recovery in macroinvertebrate diversity and richness in invaded reaches between years, continued upstream invasion was associated with sustained reductions in these community metrics as compared to un-invaded sites. Community ordination indicated (1) different associations of community composition attributed to the distribution, abundance, and biomass of the invader; and (2) increasing similarity of invaded communities over time. The impact mechanisms of G. pulex on macroinvertebrate community composition may include predation and competition. The consequences of the observed community changes for ecosystem functioning require further investigation.     

Contrasting community responses to fertilization and the role of the competitive ability of dominant species

Question: Do contrasting biotic contexts in nutrient‐poor grasslands affect the predictability of invasion by exploitative species following fertilization? Location: French Alps. Methods: We examined community responses after 2 years of nutrient addition for two nutrient‐poor European calcareous grasslands, a mesoxeric community dominated by the short bunchgrass Bromus erectus and a mesic community dominated by the tall rhizomatous grass Brachypodium rupestre. We also performed reciprocal transplantations of these two dominant slow‐growing species and Arrhenatherum elatius, a tall fast‐growing grass that dominates nutrient‐rich communities and is likely to invade nutrient‐poor communities after fertilization. Transplants were grown with or without neighbors, in order to measure their individual responses (without neighbors) and competition intensity (by comparing performances with and without neighbors using the Relative Neighbor Effect index – RNE) during one growing season in all three communities. Results: In the Bromus community, fertilization induced a strong increase in fast‐growing grasses (including A. elatius). Competition intensity was low for the three transplanted grasses, but strongly increased with resource addition, to reach values observed in the Arrhenatherum community. In the Brachypodium community, no change in competition intensity with fertilization was detected, because of the high mortality of the two “non‐resident” species, irrespective of the presence of neighbors. Conclusions: Community responses to nutrient improvement are context‐dependent and vary as a function of the biotic environment. Soil processes are proposed as the main drivers of community resistance to the invasion of fast‐growing species in the mesic, nutrient‐poor grassland dominated by the large conservative competitor B. rupestre.     

Explaining ecological shifts: the roles of temperature and primary production in the long‐term dynamics of benthic faunal composition

Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change requires that we can identify the drivers of long‐term ecological variation. Biological assemblages can exhibit abrupt deviations from temporal trends, potentially resulting in irreversible shifts in species composition over short periods of time. Such dynamics are hypothesised to occur as gradual forcing eventually causes biological thresholds to be crossed, but could also be explained by biota simply tracking abrupt changes to their environment. Here, we modelled temporal variation in a North Sea benthic faunal assemblage over a 40‐year period (1972–2012) to test for changes to temporal trends of biota and determine whether they could be explained by underlying patterns in sea temperature and primary production. These extrinsic factors were postulated to influence community dynamics through their roles in determining and sustaining the metabolic demands of organisms, respectively. A subset of mainly large and long‐lived taxa (those loaded on the first principal component of taxa densities) exhibited two significant changes to their temporal trends, which culminated in a shift in assemblage composition. These changes were explained by an increase in pelagic primary production, and hence detrital food input to the seabed, but were unrelated to variation in sea temperature. A second subset of mainly small and short‐lived taxa (those loaded on the second principal component) did not experience any significant changes to their temporal trends, as enhanced pelagic primary production appeared to mitigate the impact of warming on these organisms. Our results suggest that abrupt ecological shifts can occur as biota track underlying variation in extrinsic factors, in this case primary production. Changes to the structure of ecosystems may therefore be predictable based on environmental change projections.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Environmental context determines multi‐trophic effects of consumer species loss

Loss of biodiversity and nutrient enrichment are two of the main human impacts on ecosystems globally, yet we understand very little about the interactive effects of multiple stressors on natural communities and how this relates to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Advancing our understanding requires the following: (1) incorporation of processes occurring within and among trophic levels in natural ecosystems and (2) tests of context‐dependency of species loss effects. We examined the effects of loss of a key predator and two groups of its prey on algal assemblages at both ambient and enriched nutrient conditions in a marine benthic system and tested for interactions between the loss of functional diversity and nutrient enrichment on ecosystem functioning. We found that enrichment interacted with food web structure to alter the effects of species loss in natural communities. At ambient conditions, the loss of primary consumers led to an increase in biomass of algae, whereas predator loss caused a reduction in algal biomass (i.e. a trophic cascade). However, contrary to expectations, we found that nutrient enrichment negated the cascading effect of predators on algae. Moreover, algal assemblage structure varied in distinct ways in response to mussel loss, grazer loss, predator loss and with nutrient enrichment, with compensatory shifts in algal abundance driven by variation in responses of different algal species to different environmental conditions and the presence of different consumers. We identified and characterized several context‐dependent mechanisms driving direct and indirect effects of consumers. Our findings highlight the need to consider environmental context when examining potential species redundancies in particular with regard to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, non‐trophic interactions based on empirical evidence must be incorporated into food web‐based ecological models to improve understanding of community responses to global change.     

Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24‐year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short‐term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability.     

Dynamics of weed infestation of main agricultural crops in Belarus

In Belarus about 300 weed plant species are marked, dominated by 30?–?40 species which are found on practically all the fields. Changes in the numbers of each weed species depend on many factors. The data of itinerary inspections of agricultural crops done in 1981?–?1985 and 1996?–?2003 show the specific composition change of the main dominating weed plants in comparison with 1939. The reasons promoting change of the specific composition of crop weed infestation are shown.     

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top‐predator track ocean warming rates

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long‐lived, wide‐ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea‐surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large‐scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom‐up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.