The European carbon balance. Part 3: forests

We present a new synthesis, based on a suite of complementary approaches, of the primary production and carbon sink in forests of the 25 member states of the European Union (EU‐25) during 1990–2005. Upscaled terrestrial observations and model‐based approaches agree within 25% on the mean net primary production (NPP) of forests, i.e. 520±75 g C m^?2 yr^?1 over a forest area of 1.32 × 10⁶ km² to 1.55 × 10⁶ km² (EU‐25). New estimates of the mean long‐term carbon forest sink (net biome production, NBP) of EU‐25 forests amounts 75±20 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The ratio of NBP to NPP is 0.15±0.05. Estimates of the fate of the carbon inputs via NPP in wood harvests, forest fires, losses to lakes and rivers and heterotrophic respiration remain uncertain, which explains the considerable uncertainty of NBP. Inventory‐based assessments and assumptions suggest that 29±15% of the NBP (i.e., 22 g C m^?2 yr^?1) is sequestered in the forest soil, but large uncertainty remains concerning the drivers and future of the soil organic carbon. The remaining 71±15% of the NBP (i.e., 53 g C m^?2 yr^?1) is realized as woody biomass increments. In the EU‐25, the relatively large forest NBP is thought to be the result of a sustained difference between NPP, which increased during the past decades, and carbon losses primarily by harvest and heterotrophic respiration, which increased less over the same period.     

Carbon cycling and storage in world forests: biome patterns related to forest age

Forest age, which is affected by stand‐replacing ecosystem disturbances (such as forest fires, harvesting, or insects), plays a distinguishing role in determining the distribution of carbon (C) pools and fluxes in different forested ecosystems. In this synthesis, net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and five pools of C (living biomass, coarse woody debris, organic soil horizons, soil, and total ecosystem) are summarized by age class for tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. Estimates of variability in NPP, NEP, and C pools are provided for each biome‐age class combination and the sources of variability are discussed. Aggregated biome‐level estimates of NPP and NEP were higher in intermediate‐aged forests (e.g., 30–120 years), while older forests (e.g., >120 years) were generally less productive. The mean NEP in the youngest forests (0–10 years) was negative (source to the atmosphere) in both boreal and temperate biomes (?0.1 and –1.9 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively). Forest age is a highly significant source of variability in NEP at the biome scale; for example, mean temperate forest NEP was ?1.9, 4.5, 2.4, 1.9 and 1.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across five age classes (0–10, 11–30, 31–70, 71–120, 121–200 years, respectively). In general, median NPP and NEP are strongly correlated (R²=0.83) across all biomes and age classes, with the exception of the youngest temperate forests. Using the information gained from calculating the summary statistics for NPP and NEP, we calculated heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) for each age class in each biome. The mean R_h was high in the youngest temperate age class (9.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) and declined with age, implying that forest ecosystem respiration peaks when forests are young, not old. With notable exceptions, carbon pool sizes increased with age in all biomes, including soil C. Age trends in C cycling and storage are very apparent in all three biomes and it is clear that a better understanding of how forest age and disturbance history interact will greatly improve our fundamental knowledge of the terrestrial C cycle.     

Disturbance and climate effects on carbon stocks and fluxes across Western Oregon USA

We used a spatially nested hierarchy of field and remote‐sensing observations and a process model, Biome‐BGC, to produce a carbon budget for the forested region of Oregon, and to determine the relative influence of differences in climate and disturbance among the ecoregions on carbon stocks and fluxes. The simulations suggest that annual net uptake (net ecosystem production (NEP)) for the whole forested region (8.2 million hectares) was 13.8 Tg C (168 g C m^?2 yr^?1), with the highest mean uptake in the Coast Range ecoregion (226 g C m^?2 yr^?1), and the lowest mean NEP in the East Cascades (EC) ecoregion (88 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Carbon stocks totaled 2765 Tg C (33 700 g C m^?2), with wide variability among ecoregions in the mean stock and in the partitioning above‐ and belowground. The flux of carbon from the land to the atmosphere that is driven by wildfire was relatively low during the late 1990s (～0.1 Tg C yr^?1), however, wildfires in 2002 generated a much larger C source (～4.1 Tg C). Annual harvest removals from the study area over the period 1995–2000 were ～5.5 Tg C yr^?1. The removals were disproportionately from the Coast Range, which is heavily managed for timber production (approximately 50% of all of Oregon's forest land has been managed for timber in the past 5 years). The estimate for the annual increase in C stored in long‐lived forest products and land fills was 1.4 Tg C yr^?1. Net biome production (NBP) on the land, the net effect of NEP, harvest removals, and wildfire emissions indicates that the study area was a sink (8.2 Tg C yr^?1). NBP of the study area, which is the more heavily forested half of the state, compensated for ～52% of Oregon's fossil carbon dioxide emissions of 15.6 Tg C yr^?1 in 2000. The Biscuit Fire in 2002 reduced NBP dramatically, exacerbating net emissions that year. The regional total reflects the strong east–west gradient in potential productivity associated with the climatic gradient, and a disturbance regime that has been dominated in recent decades by commercial forestry.     

Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process‐based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing‐based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ increases in China during the period 1981–2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.32% year^?1 and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.40% year^?1 in the period 1981–1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between ?0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr^?1 with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr^?1, leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO₂ increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.     

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr^?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr^?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr^?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr^?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.     

The European carbon balance. Part 2: croplands

We estimated the long‐term carbon balance [net biome production (NBP)] of European (EU‐25) croplands and its component fluxes, over the last two decades. Net primary production (NPP) estimates, from different data sources ranged between 490 and 846 gC m^?2 yr^?1, and mostly reflect uncertainties in allocation, and in cropland area when using yield statistics. Inventories of soil C change over arable lands may be the most reliable source of information on NBP, but inventories lack full and harmonized coverage of EU‐25. From a compilation of inventories we infer a mean loss of soil C amounting to 17 g m^?2 yr^?1. In addition, three process‐based models, driven by historical climate and evolving agricultural technology, estimate a small sink of 15 g C m^?2 yr^?1 or a small source of 7.6 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Neither the soil C inventory data, nor the process model results support the previous European‐scale NBP estimate by Janssens and colleagues of a large soil C loss of 90 ± 50 gC m^?2 yr^?1. Discrepancy between measured and modeled NBP is caused by erosion which is not inventoried, and the burning of harvest residues which is not modeled. When correcting the inventory NBP for the erosion flux, and the modeled NBP for agricultural fire losses, the discrepancy is reduced, and cropland NBP ranges between ?8.3 ± 13 and ?13 ± 33 g C m^?2 yr^?1 from the mean of the models and inventories, respectively. The mean nitrous oxide (N₂O) flux estimates ranges between 32 and 37 g C Eq m^?2 yr^?1, which nearly doubles the CO₂ losses. European croplands act as small CH₄ sink of 3.3 g C Eq m^?2 yr^?1. Considering ecosystem CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ fluxes provides for the net greenhouse gas balance a net source of 42–47 g C Eq m^?2 yr^?1. Intensifying agriculture in Eastern Europe to the same level Western Europe amounts is expected to result in a near doubling of the N₂O emissions in Eastern Europe. N₂O emissions will then become the main source of concern for the impact of European agriculture on climate.     

Net primary production and net ecosystem production of a boreal black spruce wildfire chronosequence

Net primary production (NPP) was measured in seven black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP)‐dominated sites comprising a boreal forest chronosequence near Thompson, Man., Canada. The sites burned between 1998 and 1850, and each contained separate well‐ and poorly drained stands. All components of NPP were measured, most for 3 consecutive years. Total NPP was low (50–100 g C m^?2 yr^?1) immediately after fire, highest 12–20 years after fire (332 and 521 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the dry and wet stands, respectively) but 50% lower than this in the oldest stands. Tree NPP was highest 37 years after fire but 16–39% lower in older stands, and was dominated by deciduous seedlings in the young stands and by black spruce trees (>85%) in the older stands. The chronosequence was unreplicated but these results were consistent with 14 secondary sites sampled across the landscape. Bryophytes comprised a large percentage of aboveground NPP in the poorly drained stands, while belowground NPP was 0–40% of total NPP. Interannual NPP variability was greater in the youngest stands, the poorly drained stands, and for understory and detritus production. Net ecosystem production (NEP), calculated using heterotrophic soil and woody debris respiration data from previous studies in this chronosequence, implied that the youngest stands were moderate C sources (roughly, 100 g C m^?2 yr^?1), the middle‐aged stands relatively strong sinks (100–300 g C m^?2 yr^?1), and the oldest stands about neutral with respect to the atmosphere. The ecosystem approach employed in this study provided realistic estimates of chronosequence NPP and NEP, demonstrated the profound impact of wildfire on forest–atmosphere C exchange, and emphasized the need to account for soil drainage, bryophyte production, and species succession when modeling boreal forest C fluxes.     

Postfire response of North American boreal forest net primary productivity analyzed with satellite observations

Fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and has been shown to release significant amounts of carbon (C) to the atmosphere through combustion. However, less is known about the effects on ecosystems following fire, which include reduced productivity and changes in decomposition in the decade immediately following the disturbance. In this study, we assessed the impact of fire on net primary productivity (NPP) in the North American boreal forest using a 17‐year record of satellite NDVI observations at 8‐ km spatial resolution together with a light‐use efficiency model. We identified 61 fire scars in the satellite observations using digitized fire burn perimeters from a database of large fires. We studied the postfire response of NPP by analyzing the most impacted pixel within each burned area. NPP decreased in the year following the fire by 60–260 g C m^?2 yr^?1 (30–80%). By comparing pre‐ and postfire observations, we estimated a mean NPP recovery period for boreal forests of about 9 years, with substantial variability among fires. We incorporated this behavior into a carbon cycle model simulation to demonstrate these effects on net ecosystem production. The disturbance resulted in a release of C to the atmosphere during the first 8 years, followed by a small, but long‐lived, sink lasting 150 years. Postfire net emissions were three times as large as from a model run without changing NPP. However, only small differences in the C cycle occurred between runs after 8 years due to the rapid recovery of NPP. We conclude by discussing the effects of fire on the long‐term continental trends in satellite NDVI observed across boreal North America during the 1980s and 1990s.     

Climatic variability,hydrologic anomaly,and methane emission can turn productive freshwater marshes into net carbon sources

Freshwater marshes are well‐known for their ecological functions in carbon sequestration, but complete carbon budgets that include both methane (CH₄) and lateral carbon fluxes for these ecosystems are rarely available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first full carbon balance for a freshwater marsh where vertical gaseous [carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄] and lateral hydrologic fluxes (dissolved and particulate organic carbon) have been simultaneously measured for multiple years (2011–2013). Carbon accumulation in the sediments suggested that the marsh was a long‐term carbon sink and accumulated ~96.9 ± 10.3 (±95% CI) g C m^?2 yr^?1 during the last ~50 years. However, abnormal climate conditions in the last 3 years turned the marsh to a source of carbon (42.7 ± 23.4 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Gross ecosystem production and ecosystem respiration were the two largest fluxes in the annual carbon budget. Yet, these two fluxes compensated each other to a large extent and led to the marsh being a CO₂ sink in 2011 (?78.8 ± 33.6 g C m^?2 yr^?1), near CO₂‐neutral in 2012 (29.7 ± 37.2 g C m^?2 yr^?1), and a CO₂ source in 2013 (92.9 ± 28.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1). The CH₄ emission was consistently high with a three‐year average of 50.8 ± 1.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Considerable hydrologic carbon flowed laterally both into and out of the marsh (108.3 ± 5.4 and 86.2 ± 10.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1, respectively). In total, hydrologic carbon fluxes contributed ~23 ± 13 g C m^?2 yr^?1 to the three‐year carbon budget. Our findings highlight the importance of lateral hydrologic inflows/outflows in wetland carbon budgets, especially in those characterized by a flow‐through hydrologic regime. In addition, different carbon fluxes responded unequally to climate variability/anomalies and, thus, the total carbon budgets may vary drastically among years.     

Carbon storage and fluxes in ponderosa pine forests at different developmental stages

We compared carbon storage and fluxes in young and old ponderosa pine stands in Oregon, including plant and soil storage, net primary productivity, respiration fluxes, eddy flux estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and Biome‐BGC simulations of fluxes. The young forest (Y site) was previously an old‐growth ponderosa pine forest that had been clearcut in 1978, and the old forest (O site), which has never been logged, consists of two primary age classes (50 and 250 years old). Total ecosystem carbon content (vegetation, detritus and soil) of the O forest was about twice that of the Y site (21 vs. 10 kg C m^?2 ground), and significantly more of the total is stored in living vegetation at the O site (61% vs. 15%). Ecosystem respiration (R_e) was higher at the O site (1014 vs. 835 g C m^?2 year^?1), and it was largely from soils at both sites (77% of R_e). The biological data show that above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP), NPP and net ecosystem production (NEP) were greater at the O site than the Y site. Monte Carlo estimates of NEP show that the young site is a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere, and is significantly lower than NEP(O) by c. 100 g C m^?2 year^?1. Eddy covariance measurements also show that the O site was a stronger sink for CO₂ than the Y site. Across a 15‐km swath in the region, ANPP ranged from 76 g C m^?2 year^?1 at the Y site to 236 g C m^?2 year^?1 (overall mean 158 ± 14 g C m^?2 year^?1). The lowest ANPP values were for the youngest and oldest stands, but there was a large range of ANPP for mature stands. Carbon, water and nitrogen cycle simulations with the Biome‐BGC model suggest that disturbance type and frequency, time since disturbance, age‐dependent changes in below‐ground allocation, and increasing atmospheric concentration of CO₂ all exert significant control on the net ecosystem exchange of carbon at the two sites. Model estimates of major carbon flux components agree with budget‐based observations to within ± 20%, with larger differences for NEP and for several storage terms. Simulations showed the period of regrowth required to replace carbon lost during and after a stand‐replacing fire (O) or a clearcut (Y) to be between 50 and 100 years. In both cases, simulations showed a shift from net carbon source to net sink (on an annual basis) 10–20 years after disturbance. These results suggest that the net ecosystem production of young stands may be low because heterotrophic respiration, particularly from soils, is higher than the NPP of the regrowth. The amount of carbon stored in long‐term pools (biomass and soils) in addition to short‐term fluxes has important implications for management of forests in the Pacific North‐west for carbon sequestration.     

Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000

European forests are an important carbon sink; however, the relative contributions to this sink of climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]), nitrogen deposition and forest management are under debate. We attributed the European carbon sink in forests using ORCHIDEE‐FM, a process‐based vegetation model that differs from earlier versions of ORCHIDEE by its explicit representation of stand growth and idealized forest management. The model was applied on a grid across Europe to simulate changes in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of forests with and without changes in climate, [CO₂] and age structure, the three drivers represented in ORCHIDEE‐FM. The model simulates carbon stocks and volume increment that are comparable – root mean square error of 2 m³ ha^?1 yr^?1 and 1.7 kg C m^?2 respectively – with inventory‐derived estimates at country level for 20 European countries. Our simulations estimate a mean European forest NEP of 175 ± 52 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the 1990s. The model simulation that is most consistent with inventory records provides an upwards trend of forest NEP of 1 ± 0.5 g C m^?2 yr^?2 between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25. Furthermore, the method used for reconstructing past age structure was found to dominate its contribution to temporal trends in NEP. The potentially large fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition cannot be told apart, as the model does not explicitly simulate the nitrogen cycle. Among the three drivers that were considered in this study, the fertilizing effect of increasing [CO₂] explains about 61% of the simulated trend, against 26% to changes in climate and 13% only to changes in forest age structure. The major role of [CO₂] at the continental scale is due to its homogeneous impact on net primary productivity (NPP). At the local scale, however, changes in climate and forest age structure often dominate trends in NEP by affecting NPP and heterotrophic respiration.     

An inventory‐based analysis of Canada's managed forest carbon dynamics, 1990 to 2008

Canada's forests play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle because of their large and dynamic C stocks. Detailed monitoring of C exchange between forests and the atmosphere and improved understanding of the processes that affect the net ecosystem exchange of C are needed to improve our understanding of the terrestrial C budget. We estimated the C budget of Canada's 2.3 × 10⁶ km² managed forests from 1990 to 2008 using an empirical modelling approach driven by detailed forestry datasets. We estimated that average net primary production (NPP) during this period was 809 ± 5 Tg C yr^?1 (352 g C m^?2 yr^?1) and net ecosystem production (NEP) was 71 ± 9 Tg C yr^?1 (31 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Harvesting transferred 45 ± 4 Tg C yr^?1 out of the ecosystem and 45 ± 4 Tg C yr^?1 within the ecosystem (from living biomass to dead organic matter pools). Fires released 23 ± 16 Tg C yr^?1 directly to the atmosphere, and fires, insects and other natural disturbances transferred 52 ± 41 Tg C yr^?1 from biomass to dead organic matter pools, from where C will gradually be released through decomposition. Net biome production (NBP) was only 2 ± 20 Tg C yr^?1 (1 g C m^?2 yr^?1); the low C sequestration ratio (NBP/NPP=0.3%) is attributed to the high average age of Canada's managed forests and the impact of natural disturbances. Although net losses of ecosystem C occurred during several years due to large fires and widespread bark beetle outbreak, Canada's managed forests were a sink for atmospheric CO₂ in all years, with an uptake of 50 ± 18 Tg C yr^?1 [net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂=?22 g C m^?2 yr^?1].     

Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales

Net biome productivity (NBP) dominates the observed large variation of atmospheric CO₂ annual increase over the last five decades. However, the dominant regions controlling inter‐annual to multi‐decadal variability of global NBP are still controversial (semi‐arid regions vs. temperate or tropical forests). By developing a theory for partitioning the variance of NBP into the contributions of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (R_h) at different timescales, and using both observation‐based atmospheric CO₂ inversion product and the outputs of 10 process‐based terrestrial ecosystem models forced by 110‐year observational climate, we tried to reconcile the controversy by showing that semi‐arid lands dominate the variability of global NBP at inter‐annual (<10 years) and tropical forests dominate at multi‐decadal scales (>30 years). Results further indicate that global NBP variability is dominated by the NPP component at inter‐annual timescales, and is progressively controlled by R_h with increasing timescale. Multi‐decadal NBP variations of tropical rainforests are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through its significant influences on both temperature and precipitation. This study calls for long‐term observations for the decadal or longer fluctuations in carbon fluxes to gain insights on the future evolution of global NBP, particularly in the tropical forests that dominate the decadal variability of land carbon uptake and are more effective for climate mitigation.     

Land‐use change to bioenergy: grassland to short rotation coppice willow has an improved carbon balance

The effect of a transition from grassland to second‐generation (2G) bioenergy on soil carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance is uncertain, with limited empirical data on which to validate landscape‐scale models, sustainability criteria and energy policies. Here, we quantified soil carbon, soil GHG emissions and whole ecosystem carbon balance for short rotation coppice (SRC) bioenergy willow and a paired grassland site, both planted at commercial scale. We quantified the carbon balance for a 2‐year period and captured the effects of a commercial harvest in the SRC willow at the end of the first cycle. Soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) did not contribute significantly to the GHG balance of these land uses. Soil respiration was lower in SRC willow (912 ± 42 g C m^?2 yr^?1) than in grassland (1522 ± 39 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) reflected this with the grassland a net source of carbon with mean NEE of 119 ± 10 g C m^?2 yr^?1 and SRC willow a net sink, ?620 ± 18 g C m^?2 yr^?1. When carbon removed from the ecosystem in harvested products was considered (Net Biome Productivity), SRC willow remained a net sink (221 ± 66 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Despite the SRC willow site being a net sink for carbon, soil carbon stocks (0–30 cm) were higher under the grassland. There was a larger NEE and increase in ecosystem respiration in the SRC willow after harvest; however, the site still remained a carbon sink. Our results indicate that once established, significant carbon savings are likely in SRC willow compared with the minimally managed grassland at this site. Although these observed impacts may be site and management dependent, they provide evidence that land‐use transition to 2G bioenergy has potential to provide a significant improvement on the ecosystem service of climate regulation relative to grassland systems.     

Effects of land use change and management on the European cropland carbon balance

We model the carbon balance of European croplands between 1901 and 2000 in response to land use and management changes. The process‐based ORCHIDEE‐STICS model is applied here in a spatially explicit framework. We reconstructed land cover changes, together with an idealized history of agro‐technology. These management parameters include the treatment of straw and stubble residues, application of mineral fertilizers, improvement of cultivar species and tillage. The model is integrated for wheat and maize during the period 1901–2000 forced by climate each 1/2‐hour, and by atmospheric CO₂, land cover change and agro‐technology each year. Several tests are performed to identify the most sensitive agro‐technological parameters that control the net biome productivity (NBP) in the 1990s, with NBP equaling for croplands the soil C balance. The current NBP is a small sink of 0.16 t C ha^?1 yr^?1. The value of NBP per unit area reflects past and current management, and to a minor extent the shrinking areas of arable land consecutive to abandonment during the 20th Century. The uncertainty associated with NBP is large, with a 1‐sigma error of 0.18 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 obtained from a qualitative, but comprehensive budget of various error terms. The NBP uncertainty is dominated by unknown historical agro‐technology changes (47%) and model structure (27%), with error in climate forcing playing a minor role. A major improvement to the framework would consist in using a larger number of representative crops. The uncertainty of historical land‐use change derived from three different reconstructions, has a surprisingly small effect on NBP (0.01 t C ha^?1 yr^?1) because cropland area remained stable during the past 20 years in all the tested land use forcing datasets. Regional cross‐validation of modeled NBP against soil C inventory measurements shows that our results are consistent with observations, within the uncertainties of both inventories and model. Our estimation of cropland NBP is however likely to be biased towards a sink, given that inventory data from different regions consistently indicate a small source whereas we model a small sink.     

Site-level evaluation of satellite-based global terrestrial gross primary production and net primary production monitoring

Operational monitoring of global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) is now underway using imagery from the satellite‐borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Evaluation of MODIS GPP and NPP products will require site‐level studies across a range of biomes, with close attention to numerous scaling issues that must be addressed to link ground measurements to the satellite‐based carbon flux estimates. Here, we report results of a study aimed at evaluating MODIS NPP/GPP products at six sites varying widely in climate, land use, and vegetation physiognomy. Comparisons were made for twenty‐five 1 km² cells at each site, with 8‐day averages for GPP and an annual value for NPP. The validation data layers were made with a combination of ground measurements, relatively high resolution satellite data (Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus at ～30 m resolution), and process‐based modeling. There was strong seasonality in the MODIS GPP at all sites, and mean NPP ranged from 80 g C m^?2 yr^?1 at an arctic tundra site to 550 g C m^?2 yr^?1 at a temperate deciduous forest site. There was not a consistent over‐ or underprediction of NPP across sites relative to the validation estimates. The closest agreements in NPP and GPP were at the temperate deciduous forest, arctic tundra, and boreal forest sites. There was moderate underestimation in the MODIS products at the agricultural field site, and strong overestimation at the desert grassland and at the dry coniferous forest sites. Analyses of specific inputs to the MODIS NPP/GPP algorithm – notably the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the vegetation canopy, the maximum light use efficiency (LUE), and the climate data – revealed the causes of the over‐ and underestimates. Suggestions for algorithm improvement include selectively altering values for maximum LUE (based on observations at eddy covariance flux towers) and parameters regulating autotrophic respiration.     

Carbon balance in the tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest during climate change: scaling up from leaf physiology and soil carbon dynamics

Carbon exchange by the terrestrial biosphere is thought to have changed since pre-industrial times in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and variations (anomalies) in inter-annual air temperatures. However, the magnitude of this response, particularly that of various ecosystem types (biomes), is uncertain. Terrestrial carbon models can be used to estimate the direction and size of the terrestrial responses expected, providing that these models have a reasonable theoretical base. We formulated a general model of ecosystem carbon fluxes by linking a process-based canopy photosynthesis model to the Rothamsted soil carbon model for biomes that are not significantly affected by water limitation. The difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) represents net ecosystem production (NEP). The model includes (i) multiple compartments for carbon storage in vegetation and soil organic matter, (ii) the effects of seasonal changes in environmental parameters on annual NEP, and (iii) the effects of inter-annual temperature variations on annual NEP. Past, present and projected changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface air temperature (at different latitudes) were analysed for their effects on annual NEP in tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest biomes. In all three biomes, annual NEP was predicted to increase with CO₂ concentration but to decrease with warming. As CO₂ concentrations and temperatures rise, the positive carbon gains through increased NPP are often outweighed by losses through increased R_h, particularly at high latitudes where global warming has been (and is expected to be) most severe. We calculated that, several times during the past 140 years, both the tundra and boreal forest biomes have switched between being carbon sources (annual NEP negative) and being carbon sinks (annual NEP positive). Most recently, significant warming at high latitudes during 1988 and 1990 caused the tundra and boreal forests to be net carbon sources. Humid tropical forests generally have been a carbon sink since 1960. These modelled responses of the various biomes are in agreement with other estimates from either field measurements or geochemical models. Under projected CO₂ and temperature increases, the tundra and boreal forests will emit increasingly more carbon to the atmosphere while the humid tropical forest will continue to store carbon. Our analyses also indicate that the relative increase in the seasonal amplitude of the accumulated NEP within a year is about 0–14% year^?1 for boreal forests and 0–23% year^?1 in the tundra between 1960 and 1990.     

A large proportion of North American net ecosystem production is offset by emissions from harvested products,river/stream evasion,and biomass burning

Diagnostic carbon cycle models produce estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP, the balance of net primary production and heterotrophic respiration) by integrating information from (i) satellite‐based observations of land surface vegetation characteristics; (ii) distributed meteorological data; and (iii) eddy covariance flux tower observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (used in model parameterization). However, a full bottom‐up accounting of NEE (the vertical carbon flux) that is suitable for integration with atmosphere‐based inversion modeling also includes emissions from decomposition/respiration of harvested forest and agricultural products, CO₂ evasion from streams and rivers, and biomass burning. Here, we produce a daily time step NEE for North America for the year 2004 that includes NEP as well as the additional emissions. This NEE product was run in the forward mode through the CarbonTracker inversion setup to evaluate its consistency with CO₂ concentration observations. The year 2004 was climatologically favorable for NEP over North America and the continental total was estimated at 1730 ± 370 TgC yr^?1 (a carbon sink). Harvested product emissions (316 ± 80 TgC yr^?1), river/stream evasion (158 ± 50 TgC yr^?1), and fire emissions (142 ± 45 TgC yr^?1) counteracted a large proportion (35%) of the NEP sink. Geographic areas with strong carbon sinks included Midwest US croplands, and forested regions of the Northeast, Southeast, and Pacific Northwest. The forward mode run with CarbonTracker produced good agreement between observed and simulated wintertime CO₂ concentrations aggregated over eight measurement sites around North America, but overestimates of summertime concentrations that suggested an underestimation of summertime carbon uptake. As terrestrial NEP is the dominant offset to fossil fuel emission over North America, a good understanding of its spatial and temporal variation – as well as the fate of the carbon it sequesters ─ is needed for a comprehensive view of the carbon cycle.     

Terrestrial gross primary production inferred from satellite fluorescence and vegetation models

Determining the spatial and temporal distribution of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is a critical step in closing the Earth's carbon budget. Dynamical global vegetation models (DGVMs) provide mechanistic insight into GPP variability but diverge in predicting the response to climate in poorly investigated regions. Recent advances in the remote sensing of solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) opens up a new possibility to provide direct global observational constraints for GPP. Here, we apply an optimal estimation approach to infer the global distribution of GPP from an ensemble of eight DGVMs constrained by global measurements of SIF from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). These estimates are compared to flux tower data in N. America, Europe, and tropical S. America, with careful consideration of scale differences between models, GOSAT, and flux towers. Assimilation of GOSAT SIF with DGVMs causes a redistribution of global productivity from northern latitudes to the tropics of 7–8 Pg C yr^?1 from 2010 to 2012, with reduced GPP in northern forests (~3.6 Pg C yr^?1) and enhanced GPP in tropical forests (~3.7 Pg C yr^?1). This leads to improvements in the structure of the seasonal cycle, including earlier dry season GPP loss and enhanced peak‐to‐trough GPP in tropical forests within the Amazon Basin and reduced growing season length in northern croplands and deciduous forests. Uncertainty in predicted GPP (estimated from the spread of DGVMs) is reduced by 40–70% during peak productivity suggesting the assimilation of GOSAT SIF with models is well‐suited for benchmarking. We conclude that satellite fluorescence augurs a new opportunity to quantify the GPP response to climate drivers and the potential to constrain predictions of carbon cycle evolution.     

The legacy of harvest and fire on ecosystem carbon storage in a north temperate forest

Forest harvesting and wildfire were widespread in the upper Great Lakes region of North America during the early 20th century. We examined how long this legacy of disturbance constrains forest carbon (C) storage rates by quantifying C pools and fluxes after harvest and fire in a mixed deciduous forest chronosequence in northern lower Michigan, USA. Study plots ranged in age from 6 to 68 years and were created following experimental clear‐cut harvesting and fire disturbance. Annual C storage was estimated biometrically from measurements of wood, leaf, fine root, and woody debris mass, mass losses to herbivory, soil C content, and soil respiration. Maximum annual C storage in stands that were disturbed by harvest and fire twice was 26% less than a reference stand receiving the same disturbance only once. The mechanism for this reduction in annual C storage was a long‐lasting decrease in site quality that endured over the 62‐year timeframe examined. However, during regrowth the harvested and burned forest rapidly became a net C sink, storing 0.53 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ after 6 years. Maximum net ecosystem production (1.35 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and annual C increment (0.95 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) were recorded in the 24‐ and 50‐year‐old stands, respectively. Net primary production averaged 5.19 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in experimental stands, increasing by < 10% from 6 to 50 years. Soil heterotrophic respiration was more variable across stand ages, ranging from 3.85 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 6‐year‐old stand to 4.56 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 68‐year‐old stand. These results suggest that harvesting and fire disturbances broadly distributed across the region decades ago caused changes in site quality and successional status that continue to limit forest C storage rates.