Projected changes in plant species richness and extent of riparian vegetation belts as a result of climate‐driven hydrological change along the Vindel River in Sweden

1. Riparian plant communities are primarily structured by the hydrological regime of the stream. Models of climate change predict increased temperatures and changed patterns of precipitation that will alter the flow of rivers and streams with consequences for riparian communities. In boreal regions of Europe, stream flows will exhibit earlier spring‐flood peaks of lower magnitude, lower summer flows and higher flows in autumn and winter. We quantified the effects of predicted hydrological change on riparian plant species richness, using four different scenarios for the free‐flowing Vindel River in northern Sweden. 2. We calculated the hydrological niche of vegetation belts by relating the occurrence of species and vegetation belts to data on flood duration for 10 years preceding the vegetation survey. We then used the flood duration predicted for 2071–2100 to estimate expected changes in the extent of each vegetation belt. Using species accumulation curves, we then predicted changes in plant species richness as a result of changes in extent. 3. The two most species‐rich vegetation belts, riparian forest and willow shrub, were predicted to decrease most in elevational extent, up to 39 and 32%, respectively. The graminoid belt below the shrub belt will mainly shift upwards in elevation while the amphibious vegetation belt at the bottom of the riparian zone increases in size. 4. In the Vindel River, the riparian forest and willow shrub zone will lose most species, with reductions of 5–12% and 1–13% per site, respectively, depending on the scenario. The predicted loss from the entire riparian zone is lower, 1–9%, since many species occur in more than one vegetation belt. More extensive species losses are expected in the southern boreal zone for which much larger spring‐flood reductions are projected. 5. With an expected reduction in area of the most species‐rich belts, it becomes increasingly important to manage and protect riparian zones to alleviate other threats, thus minimising the risk of species losses. Restoring river and stream reaches degraded by other impacts to gain riparian habitat is another option to avoid species losses.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

Potential impacts of climate change on patterns of insect herbivory on understorey plant species: A transplant experiment

Species‐specific responses to climate change will lead to changes in species interactions across multiple trophic levels. Interactions between plants and their insect herbivores, in particular, may become increasingly disrupted if mobile herbivores respond more rapidly to climatic change than their associated host plants. We present a multispecies transplant experiment aimed at assessing potential climatic impacts on patterns of leaf herbivory. Four shrubby understorey plant species were transplanted outside their native range into a climate 2.5°C warmer in annual mean temperature. After 12 months, we assessed the types and amount of herbivore leaf damage, compared with plants transplanted to a control site within their native range. The overall amount of foliage loss to herbivores ranged from approximately 3–10% across species and sites, a range consistent with most estimates of leaf loss in other studies. The most common types of leaf damage were sucking and chewing and this pattern was consistent for all four plant species at all sites. There were no significant differences in levels and patterns of herbivory between control and warm sites for three out of four plant species. This suggests that with moderate climate warming, most herbivory will continue to be dominated by chewers and suckers, and that the overall level of foliage loss will be similar to that experienced presently.     

Effects of increased flooding on riparian vegetation: Field experiments simulating climate change along five European lowland streams

In many parts of the world, the magnitude and frequency of cold‐season precipitation are expected to increase in the near future. This will result in an increased magnitude and duration of winter and spring flooding by rain‐fed streams and rivers. Such climate‐driven increases in flooding are likely to affect riparian plant communities, but future vegetation changes are hard to predict due to current lack of data. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally modified the hydrology of five streams across three countries in north‐western Europe during late winter/early spring over a period of 3 years. We assessed the responses in riparian plant species richness, biomass, plant‐available nitrogen and phosphorus and seed deposition to increased flooding depth (+18 cm on average at the lowest positions along the riparian gradient) and prolonged flooding duration (6 weeks on average). After 3 years of increased flooding, there was an overall decline in riparian species richness, while riparian plant biomass increased. Extractable soil nitrogen and phosphorus also increased and are likely to have contributed to the increased biomass. Increased flooding resulted in the arrival of more seeds of additional species to the riparian zone, thereby potentially facilitating the shifts in riparian plant species composition we observed. The results of our concerted experimental effort demonstrate that changes in stream riparian plant communities can occur rapidly following increased winter flooding, leading to strong reductions in plant species diversity.     

Changes in species interactions across a 2.5 km elevation gradient: effects on plant migration in response to climate change

Predicted climate change in the Andes will require plant species to migrate upslope to avoid extinction. Central to predictions of species responses to climate change is an understanding of species distributions along environmental gradients. Environmental gradients are frequently modelled as abiotic, but biotic interactions can play important roles in setting species distributions, abundances, and life history traits. Biotic interactions also have the potential to influence species responses to climate change, yet they remain mostly unquantified. An important interaction long studied in tropical forests is postdispersal seed predation which has been shown to affect the population dynamics, community structure, and diversity of plant species in time and space. This paper presents a comparative seed predation study of 24 species of tropical trees across a 2.5 km elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes and quantifies seed predation variation across the elevational gradient. We then use demographic modelling to assess effects of the observed variation in seed predation on population growth rates in response to observed increasing temperatures in the area. We found marked variation among species in total seed predation depending on the major seed predator of the species and consistent changes in seed predation across the gradient. There was a significant increase in seed survival with increasing elevation, a trend that appears to be driven by regulation of seed predators via top–down forces in the lowlands giving way to bottom–up (productivity) regulation at mid‐ to high elevations, resulting in a ninefold increase in effective fecundity for trees at high elevations. This potential increase in seed crop size strongly affects modelled plant population growth and seed dispersal distances, increasing population migration potential in the face of climate change. These results also indicate that species interactions can have effects on par with climate in species responses to global change.     

Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974–1989 and 2006–2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051–2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM‐based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change.     

Responses of phenology and biomass production of boreal fens to climate warming under different water‐table level regimes

Climate change affects peatlands directly through increased air temperatures and indirectly through changes in water‐table level (WL). The interactions of these two still remain poorly known. We determined experimentally the separate and interactive effects of temperature and WL regime on factors of relevance for the inputs to the carbon cycle: plant community composition, phenology, biomass production, and shoot:root allocation in two wet boreal sedge‐dominated fens, “southern” at 62°N and “northern” at 68°Ν. Warming (1.5°C higher average daily air temperature) was induced with open‐top chambers and WL drawdown (WLD; 3–7 cm on average) by shallow ditches. Total biomass production varied from 250 to 520 g/m², with belowground production comprising 25%–63%. Warming was associated with minor effects on phenology and negligible effects on community composition, biomass production, and allocation. WLD clearly affected the contribution of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the community and the biomass they produced: shrubs benefited while forbs and mosses suffered. These responses did not depend on the warming treatment. Following WLD, aboveground biomass production decreased mainly due to reduced growth of mosses in the southern fen. Aboveground vascular plant biomass production remained unchanged but the contribution of different PFTs changed. The observed changes were also reflected in plant phenology, with different PFTs showing different responses. Belowground production increased following WLD in the northern fen only, but an increase in the contributions of shrubs and forbs was observed in both sites, while sedge contribution decreased. Moderate warming alone seems not able to drive significant changes in plant productivity or community composition in these wet ecosystems. However, if warming is accompanied by even modest WL drawdown, changes should be expected in the relative contribution of PFTs, which could lead to profound changes in the function of fens. Consequently, hydrological scenarios are of utmost importance when estimating their future function.     

The effects of climate change on a mega‐diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador

Ecuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. Climate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. We projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in Ecuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. Our work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change     

Biodiversity loss under existing land use and climate change: an illustration using northern South America

Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land‐use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land‐use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land‐use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land‐use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land‐use patterns loads the dice against species richness.     

Response of littoral vegetation on climate warming in the boreal zone; an experimental simulation

The impact of climate warming on the littoral zone of a boreal lake ecosystem was studied experimentally for three growing seasons in two artificial ponds (10×27 m) and in replicated chamber experiments. One pond was enclosed in a plastic greenhouse and another untreated pond served as a reference system. During the growing seasons temperature in the greenhouse was maintained at levels 2–3 °C higher than ambient with a computer-controlled ventilation system. One growing season prior to initiation of the experiment, a vegetated littoral zone with equal densities of water horsetail (Equisetum fluviatile) was established in both ponds. Although changes occurred in the species dominance (E. fluviatile - Alisma plantago-aquatica - Sparganium erectum spp. microcarpum - Elodea canadensis) within the three years of the study, the emergent macrophytes emerged earlier and grew better in the warmer conditions of the greenhouse pond compared with those in the reference pond. The difference in above-ground biomass throughout the growing seasons was >2 fold and after three experimental growing seasons the difference in below-ground biomass of macrophytes was 2.5-fold between the ponds. In replicated chamber experiments the biomass growth of E. fluviatile was also significantly higher in a 2–3 °C higher temperature than under ambient conditions. An ecosystem-scale induced change, characterized by a heavy growth of filamentous algae (mainly chlorophytes) was evident in the vegetated littoral zone of the greenhouse pond. A hypothesis that macrophyte rhizomes function as `phosphorus pumps' from the sediment and thus accelerate eutrophication in a warmer climate should be further studied.     

Multigenerational experimental simulation of climate change on an economically important insect pest

Long‐term multigenerational experimental simulations of climate change on insect pests of economically and socially important crops are crucial to anticipate challenges for feeding humanity in the not‐so‐far future. Mexican bean weevil Zabrotes subfasciatus, is a worldwide pest that attacks the common bean Phaseolus vulgaris seeds, in crops and storage. We designed a long term (i.e., over 10 generations), experimental simulation of climate change by increasing temperature and CO₂ air concentration in controlled conditions according to model predictions for 2100. Higher temperature and CO₂ concentrations favored pest''s egg‐to‐adult development survival, even at high female fecundity. It also induced a reduction of fat storage and increase of protein content but did not alter body size. After 10 generations of simulation, genetic adaptation was detected for total lipid content only, however, other traits showed signs of such process. Future experimental designs and methods similar to ours, are key for studying long‐term effects of climate change through multigenerational experimental designs.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.     

Potential host colonization by insect herbivores in a warmer climate: a transplant experiment

We conducted a transplant experiment to investigate the potential colonization of a plant species by insect herbivores under a warmer climate. Acacia falcata seeds collected from four latitudes, encompassing the current coastal range of the species (1150 km), were grown in the same soil type and climatic conditions in a glasshouse. Plants were then transplanted to two sites, 280 km north of A. falcata's current coastal range; the transplant sites were 1.2 and 5.5°C warmer than the northernmost and southernmost boundaries of the species' current range, respectively. We compared the structure and composition of the herbivorous Hemiptera and Coleoptera communities on the transplants (i) to that of A. falcata within its current distribution, (ii) to a closely related Acacia species (Acacia leptostachya) that naturally occurred at the transplant sites, and (iii) among the A. falcata transplants originating from seeds collected at different latitudes. Herbivory on A. falcata was also compared between the transplants and the current distribution, and among transplant originating from different latitudes. Thirty species of externally feeding herbivorous Coleoptera and Hemiptera were collected from the transplanted A. falcata over a period of 12 months following transplantation. Guild structure of this herbivore community (based on the proportion of species within each of seven groups based on taxonomy and feeding style) did not significantly differ between the transplants and that found on A. falcata within its natural range, but did differ between the transplants and A. leptostachya. Rates of herbivory did not significantly differ between the transplants and plants at sites within the natural range. There were no significant differences in herbivore species richness or overall rates of herbivory on the transplants originating from different latitudes. In conclusion, host plant identity was apparently more important than climate in influencing the structure of the colonizing herbivore community. If this result holds for other plant–herbivore systems, we might expect that under a warmer climate, broad patterns in insect community structure and rates of herbivory may remain similar to that at present, even though species composition may change substantially.     

Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada's boreal forests

Biomass change of the world's forests is critical to the global carbon cycle. Despite storing nearly half of global forest carbon, the boreal biome of diverse forest types and ages is a poorly understood component of the carbon cycle. Using data from 871 permanent plots in the western boreal forest of Canada, we examined net annual aboveground biomass change (ΔAGB) of four major forest types between 1958 and 2011. We found that ΔAGB was higher for deciduous broadleaf (DEC) (1.44 Mg ha^?1 year^?1, 95% Bayesian confidence interval (CI), 1.22–1.68) and early‐successional coniferous forests (ESC) (1.42, CI, 1.30–1.56) than mixed forests (MIX) (0.80, CI, 0.50–1.11) and late‐successional coniferous (LSC) forests (0.62, CI, 0.39–0.88). ΔAGB declined with forest age as well as calendar year. After accounting for the effects of forest age, ΔAGB declined by 0.035, 0.021, 0.032 and 0.069 Mg ha^?1 year^?1 per calendar year in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. The ΔAGB declines resulted from increased tree mortality and reduced growth in all forest types except DEC, in which a large biomass loss from mortality was accompanied with a small increase in growth. With every degree of annual temperature increase, ΔAGB decreased by 1.00, 0.20, 0.55 and 1.07 Mg ha^?1 year^?1 in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. With every cm decrease of annual climatic moisture availability, ΔAGB decreased 0.030, 0.045 and 0.17 Mg ha^?1 year^?1 in ESC, MIX and LSC forests, but changed little in DEC forests. Our results suggest that persistent warming and decreasing water availability have profound negative effects on forest biomass in the boreal forests of western Canada. Furthermore, our results indicate that forest responses to climate change are strongly dependent on forest composition with late‐successional coniferous forests being most vulnerable to climate changes in terms of aboveground biomass.     

Accelerated vegetation succession but no hydrological change in a boreal fen during 20 years of recent climate change

Northern mires (fens and bogs) have significant climate feedbacks and contribute to biodiversity, providing habitats to specialized biota. Many studies have found drying and degradation of bogs in response to climate change, while northern fens have received less attention. Rich fens are particularly important to biodiversity, but subject to global climate change, fen ecosystems may change via direct response of vegetation or indirectly by hydrological changes. With repeated sampling over the past 20 years, we aim to reveal trends in hydrology and vegetation in a pristine boreal fen with gradient from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. We resampled 203 semi‐permanent plots and compared water‐table depth (WTD), pH, concentrations of mineral elements, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plant species occurrences, community structure, and vegetation types between 1998 and 2018. In the study area, the annual mean temperature rose by 1.0°C and precipitation by 46 mm, in 20‐year periods prior to sampling occasions. We found that wet fen vegetation decreased, while bog and poor fen vegetation increased significantly. This reflected a trend of increasing abundance of common, generalist hummock species at the expense of fen specialist species. Changes were the most pronounced in high pH plots, where Sphagnum mosses had significantly increased in plot frequency, cover, and species richness. Changes of water chemistry were mainly insignificant in concentration levels and spatial patterns. Although indications toward drier conditions were found in vegetation, WTD had not consistently increased, instead, our results revealed complex dynamics of WTD as depending on vegetation changes. Overall, we found significant trend in vegetation, conforming to common succession pattern from rich to poor fen and bog vegetation. Our results suggest that responses intrinsic to vegetation, such as increased productivity or altered species interactions, may be more significant than indirect effects via local hydrology to the ecosystem response to climate warming.     

The effects of climate change on species composition,succession and phenology: a case study

Climate change and its role in altering biological interactions and the likelihood of invasion by introduced species in marine systems have received increased attention in recent years. It is difficult to forecast how climate change will influence community function or the probability of invasion as it alters multiple marine environmental parameters including rising water temperature, lower salinity and pH. In the present study, we correlate changes in environmental parameters to shifts in species composition in a subtidal community in Newcastle, NH through comparison of two, 3‐year periods separated by 23 years (1979–1981 and 2003–2005). We observed concurrent shifts in climate related factors and in groups of organisms that dominate the marine community when comparing 1979–1981 to 2003–2005. The 1979–1981 community was dominated by perennial species (mussels and barnacles). In contrast, the 2003–2005 community was dominated by annual native and invasive tunicates (sea‐squirts). We also observed a shift in the environmental factors that characterized both communities. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate characterized the 1979–1981 community while sea surface temperature, pH, and chlorophyll a characterized the 2003–2005 community. Elongated warmer water temperatures, through the fall and early winter months of the 2000s, extended the growing season of native organisms and facilitated local dominance of invasive species. Additionally, beta‐diversity was greater between 2003–2005 than 1979–1981 and driven by larger numbers of annual species whose life‐history characteristics (e.g., timing and magnitude of recruitment, growth and mortality) are driven by environmental parameters, particularly temperature.     

Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach

Recent IPCC projections suggest that Africa will be subject to particularly severe changes in atmospheric conditions. How the vegetation of Africa and particularly the grassland–savanna–forest complex will respond to these changes has rarely been investigated. Most studies on global carbon cycles use vegetation models that do not adequately account for the complexity of the interactions that shape the distribution of tropical grasslands, savannas and forests. This casts doubt on their ability to reliably simulate the future vegetation of Africa. We present a new vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM) that was specifically developed for tropical vegetation. The aDGVM combines established components from existing DGVMs with novel process‐based and adaptive modules for phenology, carbon allocation and fire within an individual‐based framework. Thus, the model allows vegetation to adapt phenology, allocation and physiology to changing environmental conditions and disturbances in a way not possible in models based on fixed functional types. We used the model to simulate the current vegetation patterns of Africa and found good agreement between model projections and vegetation maps. We simulated vegetation in absence of fire and found that fire suppression strongly influences tree dominance at the regional scale while at a continental scale fire suppression increases biomass in vegetation by a more modest 13%. Simulations under elevated temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations predicted longer growing periods, higher allocation to roots, higher fecundity, more biomass and a dramatic shift toward tree dominated biomes. Our analyses suggest that the CO₂ fertilization effect is not saturated at ambient CO₂ levels and will strongly increase in response to further increases in CO₂ levels. The model provides a general and flexible framework for describing vegetation response to the interactive effects of climate and disturbances.