Elevational shifts,biotic homogenization and time lags in vegetation change during 40 years of climate warming

Many species show evidence of climate‐driven distribution shifts towards higher elevations, but given the tremendous variation among species and regions, we lack an understanding of the community‐level consequences of such shifts. Here we test for signatures of climate warming impacts using a repeat survey of semi‐permanent vegetation plots in 1970 and 2012 in a montane protected area in southern Québec, Canada, where daily maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by ∼1.6°C and ∼2.5°C over the same time period. As predicted, the abundance‐weighted mean elevations of species distributions increased significantly over time (9 m/decade). A community temperature index (CTI) was calculated as the abundance‐weighted mean of the median temperature across occurrences within each species geographic range in eastern North America. CTI did not vary significantly over time, although the raw magnitude of change (+ 0.2°C) matched the expectation based on the upward shift in distributions of 9 m/decade. Species composition of high elevation sites converged over time toward that observed at low elevation, although compositional changes at low elevation sites were more modest. As a consequence, the results of a multivariate analysis showed a decline in among‐plot compositional variability (i.e. beta diversity) over time, thus providing some of the first empirical evidence linking climate warming with biotic homogenization. Finally, plot‐scale species richness showed a marked increase of ∼25% on average. Overall, elevational distribution shifts, biodiversity change, and biotic homogenization over the past four decades have been consistent with predictions based on climate warming, although the rate of change has been relatively slow, suggesting substantial time lags in biotic responses to climate change.     

A Race for Space? How Sphagnum fuscum stabilizes vegetation composition during long‐term climate manipulations

Strong climate warming is predicted at higher latitudes this century, with potentially major consequences for productivity and carbon sequestration. Although northern peatlands contain one‐third of the world's soil organic carbon, little is known about the long‐term responses to experimental climate change of vascular plant communities in these Sphagnum‐dominated ecosystems. We aimed to see how long‐term experimental climate manipulations, relevant to different predicted future climate scenarios, affect total vascular plant abundance and species composition when the community is dominated by mosses. During 8 years, we investigated how the vascular plant community of a Sphagnum fuscum‐dominated subarctic peat bog responded to six experimental climate regimes, including factorial combinations of summer as well as spring warming and a thicker snow cover. Vascular plant species composition in our peat bog was more stable than is typically observed in (sub)arctic experiments: neither changes in total vascular plant abundance, nor in individual species abundances, Shannon's diversity or evenness were found in response to the climate manipulations. For three key species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Betula nana and S. fuscum) we also measured whether the treatments had a sustained effect on plant length growth responses and how these responses interacted. Contrasting with the stability at the community level, both key shrubs and the peatmoss showed sustained positive growth responses at the plant level to the climate treatments. However, a higher percentage of moss‐encroached E. hermaphroditum shoots and a lack of change in B. nana net shrub height indicated encroachment by S. fuscum, resulting in long‐term stability of the vascular community composition: in a warmer world, vascular species of subarctic peat bogs appear to just keep pace with growing Sphagnum in their race for space. Our findings contribute to general ecological theory by demonstrating that community resistance to environmental changes does not necessarily mean inertia in vegetation response.     

Common garden experiments reveal uncommon responses across temperatures,locations, and species of ants

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding of the causes of compositional and spatial variation in responses to warming. Such experiments are useful for determining if geographically separated populations and co‐occurring species respond differently to warming, and they provide the opportunity to compare effects of warming on fitness (survivorship and reproduction). We exposed colonies of two common ant species in the eastern United States, Aphaenogaster rudis and Temnothorax curvispinosus, collected along a latitudinal gradient from Massachusetts to North Carolina, to growth chamber treatments that simulated current and projected temperatures in central Massachusetts and central North Carolina within the next century. Regardless of source location, colonies of A. rudis, a keystone seed disperser, experienced high mortality and low brood production in the warmest temperature treatment. Colonies of T. curvispinosus from cooler locations experienced increased mortality in the warmest rearing temperatures, but colonies from the warmest locales did not. Our results suggest that populations of some common species may exhibit uniform declines in response to warming across their geographic ranges, whereas other species will respond differently to warming in different parts of their geographic ranges. Our results suggest that differential responses of populations and species must be incorporated into projections of range shifts in a changing climate.     

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20‐year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species’ life‐history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta‐analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow‐water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold‐water‐associated species at the trailing “warm” end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold‐water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.     

Combining physiological threshold knowledge to species distribution models is key to improving forecasts of the future niche for macroalgae

Species distribution models (SDM) are a useful tool for predicting species range shifts in response to global warming. However, they do not explore the mechanisms underlying biological processes, making it difficult to predict shifts outside the environmental gradient where the model was trained. In this study, we combine correlative SDMs and knowledge on physiological limits to provide more robust predictions. The thermal thresholds obtained in growth and survival experiments were used as proxies of the fundamental niches of two foundational marine macrophytes. The geographic projections of these species’ distributions obtained using these thresholds and existing SDMs were similar in areas where the species are either absent‐rare or frequent and where their potential and realized niches match, reaching consensus predictions. The cold‐temperate foundational seaweed Himanthalia elongata was predicted to become extinct at its southern limit in northern Spain in response to global warming, whereas the occupancy of southern‐lusitanic Bifurcaria bifurcata was expected to increase. Combined approaches such as this one may also highlight geographic areas where models disagree potentially due to biotic factors. Physiological thresholds alone tended to over‐predict species prevalence, as they cannot identify absences in climatic conditions within the species’ range of physiological tolerance or at the optima. Although SDMs tended to have higher sensitivity than threshold models, they may include regressions that do not reflect causal mechanisms, constraining their predictive power. We present a simple example of how combining correlative and mechanistic knowledge provides a rapid way to gain insight into a species’ niche resulting in consistent predictions and highlighting potential sources of uncertainty in forecasted responses to climate change.     

Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old‐field ecosystem

Atmospheric and climatic change can alter plant biomass production and plant community composition. However, we know little about how climate change‐induced alterations in biomass production affect plant species composition. To better understand how climate change will alter both individual plant species and community biomass, we manipulated atmospheric [CO₂], air temperature, and precipitation in a constructed old‐field ecosystem. Specifically, we compared the responses of dominant and subdominant species to our climatic treatments, and explored how changes in plant dominance patterns alter community evenness over 2 years. Our study resulted in four major findings: (1) all treatments, elevated [CO₂], warming, and increased precipitation increased plant community biomass and the effects were additive rather than interactive, (2) plant species differed in their response to the treatments, resulting in shifts in the proportional biomass of individual species, which altered the plant community composition; however, the plant community response was largely driven by the positive precipitation response of Lespedeza, the most dominant species in the community, (3) precipitation explained most of the variation in plant community composition among treatments, and (4) changes in precipitation caused a shift in the dominant species proportional biomass that resulted in lower community evenness in the wet relative to dry treatments. Interestingly, compositional and evenness responses of the subdominant community to the treatments did not always follow the responses of the whole plant community. Our data suggest that changes in plant dominance patterns and community evenness are an important part of community responses to climatic change, and generally, that such compositional shifts can alter ecosystem biomass production and nutrient inputs.     

Temporal variation in responses of species to four decades of climate warming

Many species are expanding at their leading‐edge range boundaries in response to climate warming. Species are known to respond individualistically to climate change, but there has been little consideration of whether responses are consistent over time. We compared responses of 37 southerly distributed British butterflies over two study periods, first between 1970–1982 and 1995–1999 and then between 1995–1999 and 2005–2009, when mean annual temperature increased regionally by 0.03 °C yr^?1 (a significant rate of increase) and 0.01 °C yr^?1(a nonsignificant increase) respectively. Our study species might be expected to benefit from climate warming. We measured three responses to climate to investigate this; changes in range margin, distribution area and abundance. In general, the responses of species were inconsistent over time. Species that increased their distribution areas during the first period tended to do so again during the second period, but the relationship was weak. Changes in range margins and abundance were not consistent. In addition, only 5/37 species showed qualitatively similar responses in all three response variables over time (three species increased and two species declined in all variables in both periods). Overall rates of range expansion and distribution area change were significantly greater in the second study period, despite the lower rate of warming, perhaps due to species exploiting climate‐distribution lags remaining from the earlier, warmer period. However, there was a significantly greater decline in abundance during the second study period, so range expansions northwards were not necessarily accompanied by increases in distribution area and/or abundance. Hence, species ranges have been thinning as they have expanded northwards. The idiosyncratic responses of these species likely reflect the balance of climatic and habitat drivers of species distribution and abundance changes.     

Both life‐history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range‐wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution.     

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.     

Variable sensitivity of plant communities in Iceland to experimental warming

Facing an increased threat of rapid climate change in cold‐climate regions, it is important to understand the sensitivity of plant communities both in terms of degree and direction of community change. We studied responses to 3–5 years of moderate experimental warming by open‐top chambers in two widespread but contrasting tundra communities in Iceland. In a species‐poor and nutrient‐deficient moss heath, dominated by Racomitrium lanuginosum, mean daily air temperatures at surface were 1–2°C higher in the warmed plots than the controls whereas soil temperatures tended to be lower in the warmed plots throughout the season. In a species‐rich dwarf shrub heath on relatively rich soils at a cooler site, dominated by Betula nana and R. lanuginosum, temperature changes were in the same direction although more moderate. In the moss heath, there were no detectable community changes while significant changes were detected in the dwarf shrub heath: the abundance of deciduous and evergreen dwarf shrubs significantly increased (>50%), bryophytes decreased (18%) and canopy height increased (100%). Contrary to some other studies of tundra communities, we detected no changes in species richness or other diversity measures in either community and the abundance of lichens did not change. It is concluded that the sensitivity of Icelandic tundra communities to climate warming varies greatly depending on initial conditions in terms of species diversity, dominant species, soil and climatic conditions as well as land‐use history.     

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well‐studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate‐related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat‐sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade‐offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.     

Multilocus phylogeography of a widespread savanna–woodland‐adapted rodent reveals the influence of Pleistocene geomorphology and climate change in Africa's Zambezi region

Understanding historical influences of climate and physiographic barriers in shaping patterns of biodiversity remains limited for many regions of the world. For mammals of continental Africa, phylogeographic studies, particularly for West African lineages, implicate both geographic barriers and climate oscillations in shaping small mammal diversity. In contrast, studies for southern African species have revealed conflicting phylogenetic patterns for how mammalian lineages respond to both climate change and geologic events such as river formation, especially during the Pleistocene. However, these studies were often biased by limited geographic sampling or exclusively focused on large‐bodied taxa. We exploited the broad southern African distribution of a savanna–woodland‐adapted African rodent, Gerbilliscus leucogaster (bushveld gerbil) and generated mitochondrial, autosomal and sex chromosome data to quantify regional signatures of climatic and vicariant biogeographic phenomena. Results indicate the most recent common ancestor for all G. leucogaster lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene. We documented six divergent mitochondrial lineages that diverged ~0.270–0.100 mya, each of which was geographically isolated during periods characterized by alterations to the course of the Zambezi River and its tributaries as well as regional ‘megadroughts’. Results demonstrate the presence of a widespread lineage exhibiting demographic expansion ~0.065–0.035 mya, a time that coincides with savanna–woodland expansion across southern Africa. A multilocus autosomal perspective revealed the influence of the Kafue River as a current barrier to gene flow and regions of secondary contact among divergent mitochondrial lineages. Our results demonstrate the importance of both climatic fluctuations and physiographic vicariance in shaping the distribution of southern African biodiversity.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so‐far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow‐skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model‐testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow‐skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem.     

Flexibility in a changing arctic food web: Can rough‐legged buzzards cope with changing small rodent communities?

Indirect effects of climate change are often mediated by trophic interactions and consequences for individual species depend on how they are tied into the local food web. Here we show how the response of demographic rates of an arctic bird of prey to fluctuations in small rodent abundance changed when small rodent community composition and dynamics changed, possibly under the effect of climate warming. We observed the breeding biology of rough‐legged buzzards (Buteo lagopus) at the Erkuta Tundra Monitoring Site in southern Yamal, low arctic Russia, for 19 years (1999–2017). At the same time, data on small rodent abundance were collected and information on buzzard diet was obtained from pellet dissection. The small rodent community experienced a shift from high‐amplitude cycles to dampened fluctuations paralleled with a change in species composition toward less lemmings and more voles. Buzzards clearly preferred lemmings as prey. Breeding density of buzzards was positively related to small rodent abundance, but the shift in small rodent community lead to lower numbers relative to small rodent abundance. At the same time, after the change in small rodent community, the average number of fledglings was higher relative to small rodent abundance than earlier. These results suggest that the buzzard population adapted to a certain degree to the changes in the major resource, although at the same time density declined. The documented flexibility in the short‐term response of demographic rates to changes in structure and dynamics of key food web components make it difficult to predict how complex food webs will be transformed in a warmer Arctic. The degree of plasticity of functional responses is indeed likely to vary between species and between regions, depending also on the local food web context.     

Dwarf shrub and grass vegetation resistant to long‐term experimental warming while microarthropod abundance declines on the Falkland Islands

Dwarf shrubs are a dominant plant type across many regions of the Earth and have hence a large impact on carbon and nutrient cycling rates. Climate change impacts on dwarf shrubs have been extensively studied in the Northern Hemisphere, and there appears to be large variability in response between ecosystem types and regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, less data are available despite dwarf shrub vegetation being a dominant feature of southern South America and mountainous regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present the response of an Empetrum rubrum dwarf shrub and a Poa grass community to 12 years of experimental climate manipulation achieved using open top chambers on the Falkland Islands, a cold temperate island group in the South Atlantic. The dwarf shrub and grass vegetation did not change significantly in cover, biomass or species richness over the 12 years period in response to climate warming scenarios of up to 1°C reflecting annual warming levels predicted in this region for the coming decades. The soil microarthropod community, however, responded with declines in abundance (37%) under warming conditions in the grass community, but no such changes were observed in the dwarf shrub community. Overall, our data indicate that dwarf shrub communities are resistant to the levels of climate warming predicted over the coming decades in the southern South America region and will, therefore, remain a dominant driver of local ecosystem properties.     

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ_s). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ_s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.     

Interdecadal changes in at‐sea distribution and abundance of subantarctic seabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean

Long‐term demographic studies have recently shown that global climate change together with increasing direct impacts of human activities, such as fisheries, are affecting the population dynamics of marine top predators. However, the effects of these factors on species distribution and abundance at sea are still poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems of the southern hemisphere. Using a unique long‐term data set of at‐sea observations, we tested for interdecadal (1980s vs. 2000s) changes in summer abundance and distribution of 12 species of Albatrosses and Petrels along a 30° latitudinal gradient between tropical and Antarctic waters of the southern Indian Ocean. There were contrasting effects of climate change on subantarctic seabird distribution and abundance at sea. While subtropical waters showed the highest rate of warming, the species that visited this water mass showed the greatest changes in distribution and abundance. The abundance of Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans), White‐chinned Petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) and Giant Petrels (Macronectes sp.) declined markedly, whereas the other species showed contrasting trends or did not change. With the exception of the White‐chinned Petrel, these decreases were at least partly related to regional increase in sea surface temperature. The southward shift of Wandering Albatross and Prions (Pachyptila spp.) distributions could be ascribed to species redistribution or decrease in abundance due to warming of the subtropical waters. Surprisingly, White‐chinned Petrel distribution shifted northward, suggesting more complex mechanisms. This study is the first to document a shift in species range in the Southern Ocean related to climate change and contrasting abundance changes. It suggests that some species might experience more severe impacts from climate change depending on the water masses they visit. As climate changes are predicted to continue in the next decades, understanding species responses to climate change is crucial for conservation management, especially when their conservation status is critical or unknown.     

Species and community responses to short‐term climate manipulation: Microarthropods in the sub‐Antarctic

Abstract: Both species and community‐level investigations are important for understanding the biotic impacts of climate change, because current evidence suggests that individual species responses are idiosyncratic. However, few studies of climate change impacts have been conducted on entire terrestrial arthropod communities living in the same habitat in the southern Hemisphere, and the effects of precipitation changes on them are particularly poorly understood. Here we investigate the species‐ and community‐level responses of microarthropods inhabiting a keystone plant species, on sub‐Antarctic Marion Island, to experimental reduction in precipitation, warming and shading. These climate manipulations were chosen based on observed climate trends and predicted indirect climate change impacts on this system. The dry‐warm and shade inducing treatments that were imposed effected significant species‐ and community‐level responses after a single year. Although the strongest community‐level trends included a dramatic decline in springtail abundance and total biomass under the dry‐warm and shade treatments, species responses were generally individualistic, that is, springtails responded differently to mites, and particular mite and springtail species responded differently to each other. Our results therefore provide additional support for the dynamic rather than static model for community responses to climate change, in the first such experiment in the sub‐Antarctic. In conclusion, these results show that an ongoing decline in precipitation and increase in temperature is likely to have dramatic direct and indirect effects on this microarthropod community. Moreover, they indicate that while at a broad scale it may be possible to make generalizations regarding species responses to climate change, these generalizations are unlikely to translate into predictable effects at the community level.     

Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus,and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence.