Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961

The effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) on crop yields is one of the most uncertain and influential parameters in models used to assess climate change impacts and adaptations. A primary reason for this uncertainty is the limited availability of experimental data on CO₂ responses for crops grown under typical field conditions. However, because of historical variations in CO₂, each year farmers throughout the world perform uncontrolled yield ‘experiments’ under different levels of CO₂. In this study, measurements of atmospheric CO₂ growth rates and crop yields for individual countries since 1961 were compared to empirically determine the average effect of a 1 ppm increase of CO₂ on yields of rice, wheat, and maize. Because the gradual increase in CO₂ is highly correlated with major changes in technology, management, and other yield controlling factors, we focused on first differences of CO₂ and yield time series. Estimates of CO₂ responses obtained from this approach were highly uncertain, reflecting the relatively small importance of year‐to‐year CO₂ changes for yield variability. Combining estimates from the top 20 countries for each crop resulted in estimates with substantially less uncertainty than from any individual country. The results indicate that while current datasets cannot reliably constrain estimates beyond previous experimental studies, an empirical approach supported by large amounts of data may provide a potentially valuable and independent assessment of this critical model parameter. For example, analysis of reliable yield records from hundreds of individual, independent locations (as opposed to national scale yield records with poorly defined errors) may result in empirical estimates with useful levels of uncertainty to complement estimates from experimental studies.     

Seventeen years of carbon dioxide enrichment of sour orange trees: final results

The long-term responses of trees to elevated CO₂ are especially crucial (1) to mitigating the rate of atmospheric CO₂ increase, (2) to determining the character of future forested natural ecosystems and their spread across the landscape, and (3) to determining the productivity of future agricultural tree crops. Therefore, a long-term CO₂-enrichment experiment on sour orange trees was started in 1987, and the final results after 17 years are reported herein. Four sour orange trees ( Citrus aurantium L.) were grown from seedling stage at 300 μmol mol⁻¹ CO₂ above ambient in open-top, clear-plastic-wall chambers at Phoenix, AZ. Four control trees were similarly grown at ambient CO₂. All trees were supplied ample water and nutrients comparable with a commercial orchard. After a peak 2–4 years into the experiment, there was a productivity plateau at about a 70% enhancement of annual fruit and incremental wood production over the last several years of the experiment. When summed over the duration of the experiment, there was an overall enhancement of 70% of total biomass production. Much of the enhancement came from greater numbers of fruits produced, with no change in fruit size. Thicker trunks and branches and more branches and roots were produced, but the root/shoot ratio was unaffected. Also, there was almost no change in the elemental composition of the biomass produced, perhaps in part due to the minimal responsiveness of root-symbiotic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to the treatment.     

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C4 crops for food and fuel

Crops with the C₄ photosynthetic pathway are vital to global food supply, particularly in the tropical regions where human well-being and agricultural productivity are most closely linked. While rising atmospheric [CO₂] is the driving force behind the greater temperatures and water stress, which threaten to reduce future crop yields, it also has the potential to directly benefit crop physiology. The nature of C₄ plant responses to elevated [CO₂] has been controversial. Recent evidence from free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments suggests that elevated [CO₂] does not directly stimulate C₄ photosynthesis. Nonetheless, drought stress can be ameliorated at elevated [CO₂] as a result of lower stomatal conductance and greater intercellular [CO₂]. Therefore, unlike C₃ crops for which there is a direct enhancement of photosynthesis by elevated [CO₂], C₄ crops will only benefit from elevated [CO₂] in times and places of drought stress. Current projections of future crop yields have assumed that rising [CO₂] will directly enhance photosynthesis in all situations and, therefore, are likely to be overly optimistic. Additional experiments are needed to evaluate the extent to which amelioration of drought stress by elevated [CO₂] will improve C₄ crop yields for food and fuel over the range of C₄ crop growing conditions and genotypes.     

The effect of carbon dioxide concentration on respiration of growing and mature soybean leaves

Soybean plants were grown continuously at 350 and 700cm³m^?3 CO₂ at constant temperature. Respiration rates of third trifoliolate leaves were measured at the growth CO₂ concentration for the whole dark period from 5d before through to 5d after full area expansion. The short-term response of respiration rate to the measurement CO₂ concentration was also determined at each age. Respiration rates per unit of dry mass declined with age and were significantly less at a given age or RGR in leaves grown and measured at the elevated CO₂. The difference in respiration rate was largest in mature leaves and resulted from the different measurement CO₂ concentrations. The respiratory costs of the tissue synthesis, estimated from the elemental composition of the tissue, did not differ substantially between CO₂ treatments. The response of respiration rate to carbon dioxide concentration was not strongly affected by the form of nitrogen supplied. Maintenance respiration calculated by subtracting growth respiration from total respiration was negative in rapidly growing leaves for both CO₂ treatments. This indicates that CO₂ efflux in the dark does not accurately reflect the average 24 h rate of energy expenditure on growth and maintenance for soybean leaves.     

The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.     

Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990

Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro‐ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water‐limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations prevented a further 4% loss relative to 1990 yields. Closer investigation of three sites revealed the nature of the simulated response of water‐limited yield to water availability, water stress and maximum temperatures. At all three sites, maximum temperature hastened time from sowing to flowering and to maturity and reduced grain number per m² and average weight per grain. This 27% climate‐driven decline in water‐limited yield is not fully expressed in actual national yields. This is due to an unprecedented rate of technology‐driven gains closing the gap between actual and water‐limited potential yields by 25 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 enabling relative yields to increase from 39% in 1990 to 55% in 2015. It remains to be seen whether technology can continue to maintain current yields, let alone increase them to those required by 2050.     

Management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and related crop yield dynamics in China's cropland

Enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and food supply are vital for human survival when facing climate change. Site-specific best management practices (BMPs) are being promoted for adoption globally as solutions. However, how SOC and crop yield are related to each other in responding to BMPs remains unknown. Here, path analysis based on meta-analysis and machine learning was conducted to identify the effects and potential mechanisms of how the relationship between SOC and crop yield responds to site-specific BMPs in China. The results showed that BMPs could significantly enhance SOC and maintain or increase crop yield. The maximum benefits in SOC (30.6%) and crop yield (79.8%) occurred in mineral fertilizer combined with organic inputs (MOF). Specifically, the optimal SOC and crop yield would be achieved when the areas were arid, soil pH was ≥7.3, initial SOC content was ≤10 g kg⁻¹, duration was >10 years, and the nitrogen (N) input level was 100–200 kg ha⁻¹. Further analysis revealed that the original SOC level and crop yield change showed an inverted V-shaped structure. The association between the changes in SOC and crop yield might be linked to the positive role of the nutrient-mediated effect. The results generally suggested that improving the SOC can strongly support better crop performance. Limitations in increasing crop yield still exist due to low original SOC level, and in regions where the excessive N inputs, inappropriate tillage or organic input is inadequate and could be diminished by optimizing BMPs in harmony with site-specific conditions.     

Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO₂ fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process‐based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above‐ground biomass production at elevated [CO₂] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO₂]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional‐scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO₂] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO₂] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops.     

Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is not only one of the major agricultural production areas in China, but it is also the most susceptible to climate variability. This led us to investigate the impact of climate change on maize potential yield and yield gaps in this region, where maize accounts for about 30% of the nation's production. The APSIM‐Maize model was calibrated and validated for maize phenology and yields. The validated model was then used to estimate potential yields, rain‐fed potential yields, and yield gaps for assessing the climate impacts on maize productivity in NEC. During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC, whereas the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease. When the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield. A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield. However, the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield, consistent with our finding that farmers adopted longer season hybrids for which the increase in minimum temperature provided better conditions for germination, emergence, and grain filling during night time. The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm). Our results indicate that regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC. Within NEC, on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields, indicating a large exploitable yield gap, which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC.     

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.     

Effects of elevated temperature and carbon dioxide on seed-set and yield of kidney bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

It is important to quantify and understand the consequences of elevated temperature and carbon dioxide (CO₂) on reproductive processes and yield to develop suitable agronomic or genetic management for future climates. The objectives of this research work were (a) to quantify the effects of elevated temperature and CO₂ on photosynthesis, pollen production, pollen viability, seed‐set, seed number, seeds per pod, seed size, seed yield and dry matter production of kidney bean and (b) to determine if deleterious effects of high temperature on reproductive processes and yield could be compensated by enhanced photosynthesis at elevated CO₂ levels. Red kidney bean cv. Montcalm was grown in controlled environments at day/night temperatures ranging from 28/18 to 40/30 °C under ambient (350 µmol mol^?1) or elevated (700 µmol mol^?1) CO₂ levels. There were strong negative relations between temperature over a range of 28/18–40/30 °C and seed‐set (slope, ? 6.5% °C^?1) and seed number per pod (? 0.34 °C^?1) under both ambient and elevated CO₂ levels. Exposure to temperature > 28/18 °C also reduced photosynthesis (? 0.3 and ? 0.9 µmol m^?2 s^?1 °C^?1), seed number (? 2.3 and ? 3.3 °C^?1) and seed yield (? 1.1 and ? 1.5 g plant^?1 °C^?1), at both the CO₂ levels (ambient and elevated, respectively). Reduced seed‐set and seed number at high temperatures was primarily owing to decreased pollen production and pollen viability. Elevated CO₂ did not affect seed size but temperature > 31/21 °C linearly reduced seed size by 0.07 g °C^?1. Elevated CO₂ increased photosynthesis and seed yield by approximately 50 and 24%, respectively. There was no beneficial interaction of CO₂ and temperature, and CO₂ enrichment did not offset the negative effects of high temperatures on reproductive processes and yield. In conclusion, even with beneficial effects of CO₂ enrichment, yield losses owing to high temperature (> 34/24 °C) are likely to occur, particularly if high temperatures coincide with sensitive stages of reproductive development.     

An oxygen-mediated positive feedback between elevated carbon dioxide and soil organic matter decomposition in a simulated anaerobic wetland

We examined the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on soil carbon decomposition in an experimental anaerobic wetland system. Pots containing either bare C₄‐derived soil or the C₃ sedge Scirpus olneyi planted in C₄‐derived soil were incubated in greenhouse chambers at either ambient or twice‐ambient atmospheric CO₂. We measured CO₂ flux from each pot, quantified soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization using δ¹³C, and determined root and shoot biomass. SOM mineralization increased in response to elevated CO₂ by 83–218% (P<0.0001). In addition, soil redox potential was significantly and positively correlated with root biomass (P= 0.003). Our results (1) show that there is a positive feedback between elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and wetland SOM decomposition and (2) suggest that this process is mediated by the release of oxygen from the roots of wetland plants. Because this feedback may occur in any wetland system, including peatlands, these results suggest a limitation on the size of the carbon sink presented by anaerobic wetland soils in a future elevated‐CO₂ atmosphere.     

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.     

Facility for studying the effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration and increased temperature on crops

The requirements for the experimental study of the effects of global climate change conditions on plants are outlined. A semi-controlled plant growth facility is described which allows the study of elevated CO₂ and temperature, and their interaction on the growth of plants under radiation and temperature conditions similar to the field. During an experiment on winter wheat (cv. Mercia), which ran from December 1990 through to August 1991, the facility maintained mean daytime CO₂ concentrations of 363 and 692 cm³ m^?3 for targets of 350 and 700 cm³ m^?3 respectively. Temperatures were set to follow outside ambient or outside ambient +4°C, and hourly means were within 0.5°C of the target for 92% of the time for target temperatures greater than 6°C. Total photosynthetically active radiation incident on the crop (solar radiation supplemented by artifieal light with natural photoperiod) was 2% greater than the total measured outside over the same period.     

双向标记培养植物测定大气二氧化碳稳定碳同位素组成

基于植物能够利用体内的碳酸酐酶来催化碳酸氢根离子生成二氧化碳和水作为底物进行光合作用的特性,采用两种δ13CPDB值差值大于10‰的碳酸氢钠分别作为外源碳酸氢根离子的碳同位素标记物,通过室内双向水培诸葛菜和芥菜型油菜实验,分别向水培处理液里添加已知δ13CPDB值的碳酸氢钠并培养24 h,利用同位素比值质谱(IRMS)技术,测定并计算了两个时间、两种环境下的大气二氧化碳稳定碳同位素日平均组成。结果表明:在环境1(不同浓度的Na HCO3处理液)下所得到的δCa值与添加到处理液中的碳酸氢根离子的浓度有关;在环境2(不同浓度的PEG处理液)下所得到的δCa值与添加到处理液中的PEG的浓度无关;两种环境下所测得的大气二氧化碳稳定碳同位素日平均组成δCa值与实验中培养的植物种类无关,而与添加到培养液中碳酸氢根离子的浓度及植物的生长速率有关。数据重现性好,结果准确可靠,可以高精度的测定不同待测环境下大气二氧化碳稳定碳同位素比值,其可为以后监测不同时间、不同地点的大气二氧化碳碳同位素组成及来源提供非常有效的方法和信息。     

Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at both ambient and elevated carbon dioxide

Continuing increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) will likely be accompanied by global warming. Our research objectives were (a) to determine the effects of season‐long exposure to daytime maximum/nighttime minimum temperatures of 32/22, 36/26, 40/30 and 44/34°C at ambient (350 μmol mol^?1) and elevated (700 μmol mol^?1) CO₂ on reproductive processes and yield of peanut, and (b) to evaluate whether the higher photosynthetic rates and vegetative growth at elevated CO₂ will negate the detrimental effects of high temperature on reproductive processes and yield. Doubling of CO₂ increased leaf photosynthesis and seed yield by 27% and 30%, respectively, averaged across all temperatures. There were no effects of elevated CO₂ on pollen viability, seed‐set, seed number per pod, seed size, harvest index or shelling percentage. At ambient CO₂, seed yield decreased progressively by 14%, 59% and 90% as temperature increased from 32/22 to 36/26, 40/30 and 44/34°C, respectively. Similar percentage decreases in seed yield occurred at temperatures above 32/22°C at elevated CO₂ despite greater photosynthesis and vegetative growth. Decreased seed yields at high temperature were a result of lower seed‐set due to poor pollen viability, and smaller seed size due to decreased seed growth rates and decreased shelling percentages. Seed harvest index decreased from 0.41 to 0.05 as temperature increased from 32/22 to 44/34°C under both ambient and elevated CO₂. We conclude that there are no beneficial interactions between elevated CO₂ and temperature, and that seed yield of peanut will decrease under future warmer climates, particularly in regions where present temperatures are near or above optimum.