Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Aim To investigate effects of within-season and interannual climate variability on the behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems as simulated by the FORSKA2 patch model. Location Eleven climate station locations distributed along a transect across the boreal zone of central Canada. Methods FORSKA2′s water balance submodel was modified to enable it to behave more realistically under a varying climate. Long-term actual monthly time-series of temperature and precipitation data were detrended and used to drive the modified model. Long-term monthly averages of the same detrended data were used to drive the unmodified model. Results Modifications created significant improvements when simulating species composition at sites in boreal Canada. Simulated forest biomass values were slightly higher than those obtained from the unmodified model using averaged climate records, but resembled the observed distribution of vegetation more closely. Main conclusions Modified FORSKA2 suggests that boreal forest composition and distribution may be more sensitive to changes in monthly rainfall data than to changes in temperature. Climate variability affects seasonal water balances and should be considered when using patch models to forecast vegetation dynamics during and following a period of climate transition. The modified model provided improved representation of the latitudinal trend in spatially averaged biomass density in this region.     

菌根真菌影响森林生态系统碳循环研究进展

森林生态系统在全球碳(C)储量中占据极为重要的地位。菌根真菌广泛存在于森林生态系统中,在森林生态系统C循环过程中发挥重要的作用。阐述了不同菌根类型真菌在森林生态系统C循环过程中的功能,对比了温带/北方森林与热带/亚热带森林中菌根真菌介导的C循环研究方面新近取得的研究结果。发现温带和北方森林的外生菌根(EcM)植物对地上生物量C的贡献相对较小,然而是地下C储量的主要贡献者;以丛枝菌根(AM)共生为主的热带/亚热带森林地表生物量占比较高,表明AM植被对热带/亚热带森林地上生物量C的贡献相对较大。我们还就全球变化背景下,菌根真菌及其介导的森林生态系统C汇功能,以及不同菌根类型树种影响C循环的机制等进行了总结。菌根真菌通过影响凋落物分解、土壤有机质形成及地下根系生物量,进而影响整个森林生态系统的C循环功能。菌根介导的森林C循环过程很大程度上取决于(优势)树木的菌根类型和森林土壤中菌根真菌的群落结构。最后指出了当前研究存在的主要问题以及未来研究展望。本文旨在明确菌根真菌在森林生态系统C循环转化过程中的重要生态功能,有助于准确地评估森林生态系统C汇现状,为应对全球变化等提供重要的依据。     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.     

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

Tropical forests are the most carbon (C)-rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantification of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict ≤ 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when compared with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.     

兴安落叶松林碳平衡及管理活动影响研究 （英文）

 在利用大兴安岭地区根河落叶松(Larix gmelini)林生态系统定位研究站的实际观测资料验证CENTURY模型的基础上,探讨了林业经营管理方式对兴安落叶松林碳循环的影响,指出：1）目前兴安落叶松林是一个碳汇,每年净吸收碳2.65 t·hm-2。2）砍伐将使兴安落叶松林生物量和生产力下降,土壤碳含量则有所增加。干扰强度越大则其植物总生物量、生产力和土壤碳含量变化幅度越大,伐后恢复时间也越长。3）连年去除枯枝落叶处理使兴安落叶松林土壤碳含量下降,土壤越来越贫瘠。植物总生物量在前30年迅速增加,之后则趋于稳     

气候变化、林火和采伐对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响

大兴安岭林区林火发生的频率受气候变化的影响将会增加,可能会增加该地区森林生态系统碳损失.本研究通过耦合森林生态系统模型和森林景观模型以模拟未来百年大兴安岭森林碳储量动态变化,量化气候变化、林火和采伐对森林碳储量的影响.结果表明: 虽然采伐和林火会抵消相当一部分由气候变化增加的碳储量,但气候变化仍然能够增加大兴安岭森林碳储量.未来100年该地区森林地上和土壤有机碳储量将会分别增加9%～22%和6%～9%.短期(0～20年)气候变化对大兴安岭森林碳储量的影响大于同期林火的影响,中期(30～50年)和长期(60～100年)气候变化对森林碳储量的影响小于林火和采伐的影响.由于未来大兴安岭地区气候变化及其林火干扰存在不确定性,导致未来该地区森林碳储量存在较大的不确定性.未来100年大兴安岭森林地上碳储量和土壤有机碳储量不确定性分别为12.4%～16.2%和6.6%～10.4%.为准确估算我国北方森林生态系统碳储量,需要考虑种子传播、林火和采伐的影响.     

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO2 emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models – CENTURY and RothC – were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear‐cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear‐cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady‐state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate‐change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO₂ emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO₂. The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8–30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO₂ conditions.     

Fine Root Growth and Vertical Distribution in Response to Elevated CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, Warming and Drought in a Mixed Heathland–Grassland

Belowground plant responses have received much less attention in climate change experiments than aboveground plant responses, thus hampering a holistic understanding of climate change effects on plants and ecosystems. In addition, responses of plant roots to climate change have mostly been studied in single-factor experiments. In a Danish heathland ecosystem, we investigated both individual and combined effects of elevated CO₂, warming and drought on fine root length, net production and standing biomass by the use of minirhizotrons, ingrowth cores and soil coring. Warming increased the net root production from ingrowth cores, but decreased fine root number and length in minirhizotrons, whereas there were no significant main effects of drought. Across all treatments and soil depths, CO₂ stimulated both the total fine root length (+44%) and the number of roots observed (+39%), with highest relative increase in root length in the deeper soil layers. Our results suggest that under future climate, plants may allocate considerable resources into roots compared to aboveground biomass. Increased carbon (C) allocation to roots may have a great impact on the overall ecosystem C balance and must be considered in modelling of future ecosystem responses to climate change. To provide models with necessary validation data, more studies are needed to investigate if higher C allocation to roots will lead to long-term C storage in more recalcitrant soil C pools or if this potential increase in soil carbon storage may be offset by increased priming activity and turnover rates for soil organic matter.     

Can litter addition mediate plant productivity responses to increased precipitation and nitrogen deposition in a typical steppe?

Plant litter is a key component of grassland and plays a major role in terrestrial ecosystem processes. Global climate change has been shown to considerably alter litter inputs to soils, which may feed back to the grassland ecosystem responses to climate change. In order to explore whether litter addition could mediate above and belowground productivity responses to short-term increases in growing-season precipitation and nitrogen deposition, we conducted a two-year study on water, nitrogen and litter addition in Inner Mongolia grassland. After two years of treatments, our results showed that water, nitrogen, and litter addition increased aboveground biomass (AB) and belowground net primary productivity (BNPP). Besides, litter addition increased BNPP responses to water addition. These litter addition effects could be attributed to the influence of litter on soil moisture and soil nitrogen availability, ultimately increasing belowground water use efficiency (WUE_BNPP) and plant nitrogen uptake (NUP_BNPP). However, litter addition suppressed the aboveground biomass (AB) responses to nitrogen addition under ambient precipitation conditions by affecting soil moisture. In conclusion, our results suggest that ecosystem responses to short-term increases in growing-season precipitation and nitrogen deposition could be mediated by the increased litter input caused by climate change.     

Modeling analysis of primary controls on net ecosystem productivity of seven boreal and temperate coniferous forests across a continental transect

Process‐based models are effective tools to synthesize and/or extrapolate measured carbon (C) exchanges from individual sites to large scales. In this study, we used a C‐ and nitrogen (N)‐cycle coupled ecosystem model named CN‐CLASS (Carbon Nitrogen‐Canadian Land Surface Scheme) to study the role of primary climatic controls and site‐specific C stocks on the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of seven intermediate‐aged to mature coniferous forest sites across an east–west continental transect in Canada. The model was parameterized using a common set of parameters, except for two used in empirical canopy conductance–assimilation, and leaf area–sapwood relationships, and then validated using observed eddy covariance flux data. Leaf Rubisco‐N dynamics that are associated with soil–plant N cycling, and depend on canopy temperature, enabled the model to simulate site‐specific gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) reasonably well for all seven sites. Overall GEP simulations had relatively smaller differences compared with observations vs. ecosystem respiration (RE), which was the sum of many plant and soil components with larger variability and/or uncertainty associated with them. Both observed and simulated data showed that, on an annual basis, boreal forest sites were either carbon‐neutral or a weak C sink, ranging from 30 to 180 g C m^?2 yr^?1; while temperate forests were either a medium or strong C sink, ranging from 150 to 500 g C m^?2 yr^?1, depending on forest age and climatic regime. Model sensitivity tests illustrated that air temperature, among climate variables, and aboveground biomass, among major C stocks, were dominant factors impacting annual NEP. Vegetation biomass effects on annual GEP, RE and NEP showed similar patterns of variability at four boreal and three temperate forests. Air temperature showed different impacts on GEP and RE, and the response varied considerably from site to site. Higher solar radiation enhanced GEP, while precipitation differences had a minor effect. Magnitude of forest litter content and soil organic matter (SOM) affected RE. SOM also affected GEP, but only at low levels of SOM, because of low N mineralization that limited soil nutrient (N) availability. The results of this study will help to evaluate the impact of future climatic changes and/or forest C stock variations on C uptake and loss in forest ecosystems growing in diverse environments.     

全球气候变暖对凋落物分解的影响

凋落物分解作为生态系统核心过程,参与生态系统碳的周转与循环,影响生态系统碳的收支平衡,调控生态系统对全球气候变暖的反馈结果。全球气候变暖通过环境因素、凋落物数量和质量以及分解者3个方面,直接或间接地作用于凋落物分解过程,并进一步影响土壤养分周转和碳库动态。气候变暖可通过升高温度和改变实际蒸散量等环境因素直接作用于凋落物分解。气候变暖可引起植物物种短期内碳、氮和木质素等化学性质的改变以及群落中物种组成的长期变化从而改变凋落物质量。在凋落物分解过程中,土壤分解者亚系统作为主要生命组分(土壤动物和微生物)彼此相互作用、相互协调共同参与调节凋落物的分解过程。凋落物分解可以通过改变土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构来加快微生物养分的固定或矿化,以形成新的养分利用模式来改变土壤有机质从而对气候变化做出响应。未来凋落物分解的研究方向应基于大尺度跨区域分解实验和长期实验,关注多个因子交互影响下,分解过程中碳、氮养分释放、地上/地下凋落物分解生物学过程与联系、分解者亚系统营养级联效应等方面。     

Soil CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> efflux and fungal and bacterial biomass in a plantation and a secondary forest in wet tropics in Puerto Rico

We examined the effects of root and litter exclusion on the rate of soil CO₂ efflux and microbial biomass using trenching and tent separation techniques in a secondary forest (SF) and a pine (Pinus caribaea Morelet) plantation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Soil surface CO₂ efflux was measured using the alkali trap method at 12 randomly-distributed locations in each treatment (control, root exclusion, litter exclusion, and both root and litter exclusion) in the plantation and the SF, respectively. We measured soil CO₂ efflux every two months and collected soil samples at each sampling location in different seasons to determine microbial biomass from August 1996 to July 1997. We found that soil CO₂ efflux was significantly reduced in the litter and root exclusion plots (7-year litter and/or root exclusion) in both the secondary forest and the pine plantation compared with the control. The reduction of soil CO₂ efflux was 35.6% greater in the root exclusion plots than in the litter exclusion plots in the plantation, whereas a reversed pattern was found in the secondary forest. Microbial biomass was also reduced during the litter and root exclusion period. In the root exclusion plots, total fungal biomass averaged 31.4% and 65.2% lower than the control plots in the plantation and the secondary forest, respectively, while the total bacterial biomass was 24% and 8.3% lower than the control plots in the plantation and the secondary forest, respectively. In the litter exclusion treatment, total fungal biomass averaged 69.2% and 69.7% lower than the control plots in the plantation and the secondary forest, respectively, while the total bacterial biomass was 48% and 50.1% lower than the control plots in the plantation and the secondary forest, respectively. Soil CO₂ efflux was positively correlated with both fungal and bacterial biomass in both the plantation the secondary forest. The correlation between soil CO₂ efflux and active fungal biomass was significantly higher in the plantation than in the secondary forest. However, the correlation between the soil CO₂ efflux and both the active and total bacterial biomass was significantly higher in the secondary forest than in the plantation in the day season. In addition, we found soil CO₂ efflux was highly related to the strong interactions among root, fungal and bacterial biomass by multiple regression analysis (R² > 0.61, P < 0.05). Our results suggest that carbon input from aboveground litterfall and roots (root litter and exudates) is critical to the soil microbial community and ecosystem carbon cycling in the wet tropical forests.     

不同放牧强度下短花针茅荒漠草原植被-土壤系统有机碳组分储量特征

草地生态系统作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在全球碳循环中发挥着重要作用。以内蒙古短花针茅荒漠草原不同放牧强度样地为研究对象,通过分析地上植物、凋落物、根系、土壤中有机碳和土壤轻组有机碳,研究草原植被-土壤系统有机碳组分储量的变化特征,从碳储量角度为合理利用草原提供指导。研究结果表明:(1)不同放牧强度荒漠草原地上植物碳储量为11.98—44.51 g/m~2,凋落物碳储量10.43—36.12 g/m~2,根系(0—40cm)碳储量502.30—804.31 g/m~2,且对照区(CK)均显著高于中度放牧区(MG)、重度放牧区(HG);(2)0—40cm土壤碳储量为7817.43—9694.16 g/m~2,其中轻度放牧区(LG)碳储量为9694.16 g/m~2,显著高于CK、HG(P0.05);(3)植被—土壤系统的碳储量为8342.14—10494.80 g/m~2,LGMGCKHG,有机碳主要储存于土壤当中,占比约90.54%—93.71%,适度放牧利用有利于发挥草地生态系统的碳汇功能;(4)土壤轻组有机碳储量为484.20—654.62 g/m~2,LG储量最高,表明适度放牧有助于草原土壤营养物质的循环和积累。     

Allocation of carbon in a mature eucalypt forest and some effects of soil phosphorus availability

Pools and annual fluxes of carbon (C) were estimated for a mature Eucalyptus pauciflora (snowgum) forest with and without phosphorus (P) fertilizer addition to determine the effect of soil P availability on allocation of C in the stand. Aboveground biomass was estimated from allometric equations relating stem and branch diameters of individual trees to their biomass. Biomass production was calculated from annual increments in tree diameters and measurements of litterfall. Maintenance and construction respiration were calculated for each component using equations given by Ryan (1991a). Total belowground C flux was estimated from measurements of annual soil CO₂ efflux less the C content of annual litterfall (assuming forest floor and soil C were at approximate steady state for the year that soil CO₂ efflux was measured). The total C content of the standing biomass of the unfertilized stand was 138 t ha^-1, with approximately 80% aboveground and 20% belowground. Forest floor C was 8.5 t ha^-1. Soil C content (0–1 m) was 369 t ha^-1 representing 70% of the total C pool in the ecosystem. Total gross annual C flux aboveground (biomass increment plus litterfall plus respiration) was 11.9 t ha^-1 and gross flux belowground (coarse root increment plus fine root production plus root respiration) was 5.1 t ha^-1. Total annual soil efflux was 7.1 t ha^-1, of which 2.5 t ha^-1 (35%) was contributed by litter decomposition.The short-term effect of changing the availability of P compared with C on allocation to aboveground versus belowground processes was estimated by comparing fertilized and unfertilized stands during the year after treatment. In the P-fertilized stand annual wood biomass increment increased by 30%, there was no evidence of change in canopy biomass, and belowground C allocation decreased by 19% relative to the unfertilized stand. Total annual C flux was 16.97 and 16.75 t ha^-1 yr^-1 and the ratio of below- to aboveground C allocation was 0.43 and 0.35 in the unfertilized and P-fertilized stands, respectively. Therefore, the major response of the forest stand to increased soil P availability appeared to be a shift in C allocation; with little change in total productivity. These results emphasise that both growth rate and allocation need to be estimated to predict changes in fluxes and storage of C in forests that may occur in response to disturbance or climate change.     

气候变化对我国南方人工林地上生物量影响的模拟研究——以会同生态站磨哨实验林场为例

全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统尤其是森林生态系统有着重要的影响,气温升高、辐射强迫的增强将显著改变森林生态系统的结构和功能.南方人工林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化的响应日益强烈.为了探究未来气候情景下我国南方人工林对气候变化的响应,降低未来气候变化对人工林可能带来的损失,本研究采用3种最新的气候情景—典型浓度排放路径情景(RCP2.6情景、RCP4.5情景、RCP8.5情景)预估数据,应用生态系统过程模型PnET-Ⅱ和空间直观景观模型LANDIS-Ⅱ模拟2014—2094年间湖南省会同森林生态实验站磨哨实验林场森林的地表净初级生产力(ANPP)、物种建立可能性(SEP)和地上生物量的变化.结果表明: 不同森林类型的SEP和ANPP对气候变化的响应有明显的差异,各森林类型对气候变化的响应程度表现为: 对于SEP,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,人工针叶林＞天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林;在RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林＞人工针叶林.对于ANPP,在RCP2.6情景下,人工阔叶林＞天然阔叶林＞人工针叶林;在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林＞人工阔叶林＞人工针叶林.人工针叶林的地上生物量在2050年左右开始下降,天然阔叶林和人工阔叶林整体呈现上升趋势.2014—2094年,研究区地上总生物量在不同气候情景下增加幅度不同,RCP2.6情景下增加了68.2%,RCP4.5情景下增加了79.3%,RCP8.5情景下增加了72.6%.3种情景下的总地上生物量大小排序为: RCP4.5> RCP8.5> RCP2.6.我们认为,适当的增温将有助于未来研究区森林总地上生物量的积累,但过度的增温也可能会阻碍森林的生产和生态功能的持续发展.     

Dynamic global vegetation modelling for prediction of plant functional types and biogenic trace gas fluxes

1. A Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) has been developed as a new feature of the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) ecosystem production and trace gas model. This DGVM includes seasonal phenology algorithms calibrated using historical interannual data sets derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) satellite ‘greenness’ index. 2. The coupled CASA-DGVM design is based conceptually on two main elements of Tilman's resource-ratio hypothesis of vegetation change, namely: 1) plant competition for resources (water and light) over relatively short time periods of months and seasons; and 2) the long-term pattern in the supply of growth-limiting resources such as water and nutrients, i.e. the resource-supply trajectory. This simulation model generates global gridded estimates of primary production, above and below ground biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and trace gas fluxes from soil. 3. Eight distributed test locations for the DGVM were evaluated initially to represent a variety of climate conditions ranging from Arctic (64°N Alaska) to tropical and subtropical (24°S southern Africa) latitude zones. At all test locations, the predicted plant functional type (PFT) matched closely with the actual reported PFT. 4. In the process of running the model to steady state PFTs, most forest locations showed a rapid progression of transient states, from bare ground to grassland, to grasses with shrub cover, and finally to the forest PFT. From this first global application, the DGVM correctly predicts the presence of forest classes in approximately 75–95% of all cases worldwide, and grasslands in approximately 58% of all cases. 5. The effects of two hypothetical climate change scenarios were evaluated. Scenario I was set by warming air surface temperatures linearly to 4 °C above average over a 25-year simulation period. Scenario II was set by decreasing annual rainfall amounts linearly to 50% below average over a 25-year simulation period. 6. The warming scenario I resulted in PFT at high-latitude forest and boreal forest sites changing to mixed coniferous forest, accompanied by increase in canopy LAI. The drought scenario II resulted in PFT at the boreal forest and savanna sites changing to grasslands. At locations where PFT did not change with climate, however, soil water and canopy LAI were predicted to decline progressively under the warming scenario, beginning from steady-state temperate and tropical zone PFTs. They also declined under the drought scenario beginning from practically any steady state PFT.     

Carbon Accumulation Patterns During Post-Fire Succession in Cajander Larch (Larix cajanderi) Forests of Siberia

Increased fire activity within boreal forests could affect global terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by decreasing stand age or altering tree recruitment, leading to patterns of forest regrowth that differ from those of pre-fire stands. To improve our understanding of post-fire C accumulation patterns within boreal forests, we evaluated above- and belowground C pools within 17 Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) stands of northeastern Siberia that varied in both years since fire and stand density. Early-successional stands (<20-year old) exhibited low larch recruitment, and consequently, low density, aboveground larch biomass, and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP_tree). Mid-successional stands (21- to 70-year old) were even-aged with considerable variability in stand density. High-density mid-successional stands had 21 times faster rates of ANPP_tree than low-density stands (252 vs. 12?g?C?m^?2?y^?1) and 26 times more C in aboveground larch biomass (2,186 vs. 85?g?C?m^?2). Density had little effect on total soil C pools. During late-succession (>70-year old), aboveground larch biomass, ANPP_tree, and soil organic layer C pools increased with stand age. These stands were low density and multi-aged, containing both mature trees and new recruits. The rapid accumulation of aboveground larch biomass in high-density, mid-successional stands allowed them to obtain C stocks similar to those in much older low-density stands (~8,000?g?C?m^?2). If fire frequency increases without altering stand density, landscape-level C storage could decline, but if larch density also increases, large aboveground C pools within high-density stands could compensate for a shorter successional cycle.     

Net ecosystem productivity of boreal jack pine stands regenerating from clearcutting under current and future climates

Life cycle analysis of climate and disturbance effects on forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is necessary to assess changes in forest carbon (C) stocks under current or future climates. Ecosystem models used in such assessments need to undergo well-constrained tests of their hypotheses for climate and disturbance effects on the processes that determine CO₂ exchange between forests and the atmosphere. We tested the ability of the model ecosys to simulate diurnal changes in CO₂ fluxes under changing air temperatures (T_a) and soil water contents during forest regeneration with eddy covariance measurements over boreal jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands along a postclearcut chronosequence. Model hypotheses for hydraulic and nutrient constraints on CO₂ fixation allowed ecosys to simulate the recovery of C cycling during the transition of boreal jack pine stands from C sources following clearcutting (NEP from −150 to −200 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) to C sinks at maturity (NEP from 20 to 80 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) with large interannual variability. Over a 126-year logging cycle, annualized NEP, C harvest, and net biome productivity (NBP=NEP–harvest removals) of boreal jack pine averaged 47, 33 and 14 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. Under an IPCC SRES climate change scenario, rising T_a exacerbated hydraulic constraints that adversely affected NEP of boreal jack pine after 75 years. These adverse effects were avoided in the model by replacing the boreal jack pine ecotype with one adapted to warmer T_a. This replacement raised annualized NEP, C harvest, and NBP to 81, 56 and 25 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ during a 126-year logging cycle under the same climate change scenario.     

Effects of Warming, Summer Drought, and CO2 Enrichment on Aboveground Biomass Production, Flowering Phenology, and Community Structure in an Upland Grassland Ecosystem

Future climate scenarios predict simultaneous changes in environmental conditions, but the impacts of multiple climate change drivers on ecosystem structure and function remain unclear. We used a novel experimental approach to examine the responses of an upland grassland ecosystem to the 2080 climate scenario predicted for the study area (3.5°C temperature increase, 20% reduction in summer precipitation, atmospheric CO₂ levels of 600 ppm) over three growing seasons. We also assessed whether patterns of grassland response to a combination of climate change treatments could be forecast by ecosystem responses to single climate change drivers. Effects of climate change on aboveground production showed considerable seasonal and interannual variation; April biomass increased in response to both warming and the simultaneous application of warming, summer drought, and CO₂ enrichment, whereas October biomass responses were either non-significant or negative depending on the year. Negative impacts of summer drought on production were only observed in combination with a below-average rainfall regime, and showed lagged effects on spring biomass. Elevated CO₂ had no significant effect on aboveground biomass during this study. Both warming and the 2080 climate change scenario were associated with a significant advance in flowering time for the dominant grass species studied. However, flowering phenology showed no significant response to either summer drought or elevated CO₂. Species diversity and equitability showed no response to climate change treatments throughout this study. Overall, our data suggest that single-factor warming experiments may provide valuable information for projections of future ecosystem changes in cool temperate grasslands.