Geography best explains global patterns of genetic diversity and postglacial co‐expansion in marine turtles

For many species, climate oscillations drove cycles of population contraction during cool glacial periods followed by expansion during interglacials. Some groups, however, show evidence of uniform and synchronous expansion, while others display differences in the timing and extent of demographic change. We compared demographic histories inferred from genetic data across marine turtle species to identify responses to postglacial warming shared across taxa and to examine drivers of past demographic change at the global scale. Using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we estimated demographic parameters, including the likelihood of past population expansion, from a mitochondrial data set encompassing 23 previously identified lineages from all seven marine turtle species. For lineages with a high posterior probability of expansion, we conducted a hierarchical ABC analysis to estimate the proportion of lineages expanding synchronously and the timing of synchronous expansion. We used Bayesian model averaging to identify variables associated with expansion and genetic diversity. Approximately 60% of extant marine turtle lineages showed evidence of expansion, with the rest mainly exhibiting patterns of genetic diversity most consistent with population stability. For lineages showing expansion, there was a strong signal of synchronous expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum. Expansion and genetic diversity were best explained by ocean basin and the degree of endemism for a given lineage. Geographic differences in sensitivity to climate change have implications for prioritizing conservation actions in marine turtles as well as for identifying areas of past demographic stability and potential resilience to future climate change for broadly distributed taxa.     

Eastward Ho: phylogeographical perspectives on colonization of hosts and parasites across the Beringian nexus

The response of Arctic organisms and their parasites to dramatic fluctuations in climate during the Pleistocene has direct implications for predicting the impact of current climate change in the North. An increasing number of phylogeographical studies in the Arctic have laid a framework for testing hypotheses concerning the impact of shifting environmental conditions on transcontinental movement. We review 35 phylogeographical studies of trans-Beringian terrestrial and freshwater taxa, both hosts and parasites, to identify generalized patterns regarding the number, direction and timing of trans-continental colonizations. We found that colonization across Beringia was primarily from Asia to North America, with many events occurring in the Quaternary period. The 35 molecular studies of trans-Beringian organisms we examined focused primarily on the role of glacial cycles and refugia in promoting diversification. We address the value of establishing testable hypotheses related to high-latitude biogeography. We then discuss future prospects in Beringia related to coalescent theory, palaeoecology, ancient DNA and synthetic studies of arctic host–parasite assemblages highlighting their cryptic diversity, biogeography and response to climate variation.     

Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil

Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion–contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single‐locus data, we can now perform large‐scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single‐locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric‐adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest.     

Phylogeography of Middle American gophersnakes: mixed responses to biogeographical barriers across the Mexican Transition Zone

Aim We used inferences of phylogeographical structure and estimates of divergence times for three species of gophersnakes (Colubridae: Pituophis) distributed across the Mexican Transition Zone (MTZ) to evaluate the postulated association of three Neogene geological events (marine seaway inundation of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, formation of the Transvolcanic Belt across central Mexico, and secondary uplifting of the Sierra Madre Occidental) and of Pleistocene climate change with inter‐ and intraspecific diversification. Location Mexico, Guatemala, and the western United States. Methods We combined range‐wide sampling (67 individuals representing three putative species distributed across northern Middle America and western North America) and phylogenetic analyses of 1637 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA to estimate genealogical relationships and divergence times. The hypothesized concordance of inferred gene trees with geological histories was assessed using topology tests. Results We identified three major lineages of Middle American gophersnakes, and strong phylogeographical structure within each lineage. Gene trees were statistically congruent with hypothesized geological histories for two of the three postulated geological events. Estimated divergence dates and the geographical distribution of genetic variation further support mixed responses to these geological events. Considerable phylogeographical structure appears to have been generated during the Pleistocene. Main conclusions Phylogenetic and phylogeographical structure in gophersnakes distributed across northern Middle America and western North America highlights the influence of both Neogene vicariance events and Pleistocene climate change in shaping genetic diversity in this region. Despite the presence of two major geographical barriers in southern Mexico, extreme geological and environmental heterogeneity in this area may have differentially structured genetic diversity in highland taxa. To the north, co‐distributed taxa may display a more predictable pattern of diversification across the warm desert regions. Future studies should incorporate nuclear data to disentangle inferred lineage boundaries and further elucidate patterns of mitochondrial introgression.     

Phylogeography of Diadophis punctatus: extensive lineage diversity and repeated patterns of historical demography in a trans-continental snake

Dynamic climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene had profound effects on the distributions of species across North America. Although the role of historical climate change on speciation remains controversial, the impact on genetic variation within species has been well documented. We examined mtDNA sequences from the cytochrome b gene (1117 bp) and a portion of the NADH-4 gene (659 bp) for 286 individuals of Diadophis punctatus to infer phylogeographic patterns and population structure and to examine historical demographic patterns in both glaciated and unglaciated regions of North America. We inferred 14 lineages that replace each other geographically across the United States. Several of these lineages appear to be confined to specific habitats (floodplains, grasslands, montane environments) and traverse previously identified genetic barriers for terrestrial vertebrates including the Mississippi and Apalachicola Rivers, the Appalachian Mountains, and the western continental divide. We also observed overlapping ranges between some haplotype groups and several instances of secondary contact associated with ecological transition zones in eastern South Carolina, southern Oklahoma and central California. Within the US, diversification began during the late Miocene and continued into the mid-Pleistocene, suggesting these lineages pre-dated the last glacial maximum. Coalescent and non-coalescent demographic analyses indicate that independent lineages currently occupying previously glaciated or unsuitable areas in eastern, central and western US underwent post-glacial population expansion likely from southern refugia during the late Pleistocene/early Holocene. Conversely, southern lineages display patterns consistent with long-term population stability. Such long-term persistence of genetic structure may be due to the competitive effects between lineages or ecosystem stability in more southern latitudes.     

When recent and evolutionary histories meet: deciphering temporal events from contemporary patterns of mtDNA from fishers (Martes pennanti) in north‐eastern North America

The current spatial distribution of genetic lineages across a region should reflect the complex interplay of both historical and contemporary processes. Postglacial expansion and recolonization in the distant past, in combination with more recent events with anthropogenic effects such as habitat fragmentation and overexploitation, can help shape the pattern of genetic structure observed in contemporary populations. In this study, we characterize the spatial distribution of mtDNA lineages for fisher (Martes pennanti) in north‐eastern North America. The history of fishers in this region is well understood and thus provides an opportunity to interpret patterns of genetic structure in the light of known historical (e.g. recolonization from glacial refugia) and contemporary events (e.g. reintroductions, fragmentation and natural recolonization). Our results indicate that fishers likely recolonized north‐eastern North America from a single Pleistocene refugium. Three genetically distinct remnant populations persisted through the population declines of the 1800s and served as sources for multiple reintroductions and natural recolonizations that have restored the fisher throughout north‐eastern North America. However, the spatial genetic structure of genetic lineages across the region still reflects the three remnant populations.     

Relative roles of Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change on the historical diversification of bunchgrass lizards (Sceloporus scalaris group) in Mexico

Neogene vicariance during the Miocene and Pliocene and Quaternary climate change have synergistically driven diversification in Mexican highland taxa. We investigated the impacts of these processes on genetic diversification in the widely distributed bunchgrass lizards in the Sceloporus scalaris group. We searched for correlations between timing in diversification and timing of (1) a period of marked volcanism across the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt in central Mexico 3-7.5 million years ago (Ma) and (2) a transition to larger glacial-interglacial cycles during the mid-Pleistocene. From our phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA we identified two major clades that contained 13 strongly supported lineages. One clade contained lineages from the two northern sierras of Mexico, and the other clade included lineages associated with the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and Central Mexican Plateau. Results provided support for Neogene divergences within the S. scalaris group in response to uplift of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, a pattern observed in several co-distributed taxa, and suggested that Quaternary climate change likely had little effect on diversification between lineages. Uplift of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt during specific time periods appears to have strongly impacted diversification in Mexican highland taxa.     

Phylogeographic structure in long‐tailed voles (Rodentia: Arvicolinae) belies the complex Pleistocene history of isolation,divergence, and recolonization of Northwest North America's fauna

Quaternary climate fluctuations restructured biodiversity across North American high latitudes through repeated episodes of range contraction, population isolation and divergence, and subsequent expansion. Identifying how species responded to changing environmental conditions not only allows us to explore the mode and tempo of evolution in northern taxa, but also provides a basis for forecasting future biotic response across the highly variable topography of western North America. Using a multilocus approach under a Bayesian coalescent framework, we investigated the phylogeography of a wide‐ranging mammal, the long‐tailed vole, Microtus longicaudus. We focused on populations along the North Pacific Coast to refine our understanding of diversification by exploring the potentially compounding roles of multiple glacial refugia and more recent fragmentation of an extensive coastal archipelago. Through a combination of genetic data and species distribution models (SDMs), we found that historical climate variability influenced contemporary genetic structure, with multiple isolated locations of persistence (refugia) producing multiple divergent lineages (Beringian or northern, southeast Alaska or coastal, and southern or continental) during glacial advances. These vole lineages all occur along the North Pacific Coast where the confluence of numerous independent lineages in other species has produced overlapping zones of secondary contact, collectively a suture zone. Finally, we detected high levels of neoendemism due to complex island geography that developed in the last 10,000 years with the rising sea levels of the Holocene.     

East Asian allopatry and north Eurasian sympatry in Long‐tailed Tit lineages despite similar population dynamics during the late Pleistocene

Eurasia is a large continent characterized by heterogeneous environments. Glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene have had variable impacts on the avifauna across Eurasia. Bird populations from South‐East Asia show stability through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), while populations from Europe exhibit evidence of post‐LGM expansion. We investigated the phylogeography of the Long‐tailed Tit (Aegithalos caudatus), which spans the longitudinal breadth of Eurasia to test how climatic history and regional topographical complexity affected populations and diversification within the species complex. Our results show that two lineages from central and southern China (lineages C and D) segregate geographically, while lineages across northern Eurasia (lineage A and B) show substantial sympatry. Bayesian estimates for the timing of diversification suggest that the four lineages diverged during the middle Pleistocene, splitting in parallel and undergoing concurrent demographic histories since divergence. A. caudatus lineages experienced similar and synchronous population size dynamics during glacial cycles before the LGM. We conclude that the difference in geo‐topologic complexity may be an important factor that led to the variation in secondary admixture between northern Eurasian and eastern Asian lineages.     

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.     

Multi-locus phylogeographic and population genetic analysis of Anolis carolinensis: historical demography of a genomic model species

The green anole (Anolis carolinensis) has been widely used as an animal model in physiology and neurobiology but has recently emerged as an important genomic model. The recent sequencing of its genome has shed new light on the evolution of vertebrate genomes and on the process that govern species diversification. Surprisingly, the patterns of genetic diversity within natural populations of this widespread and abundant North American lizard remain relatively unknown. In the present study, we use 10 novel nuclear DNA sequence loci (N?=?62 to 152) and one mitochondrial locus (N?=?226) to delimit green anole populations and infer their historical demography. We uncovered four evolutionarily distinct and geographically restricted lineages of green anoles using phylogenetics, bayesian clustering, and genetic distance methods. Molecular dating indicates that these lineages last shared a common ancestor ～2 million years ago. Summary statistics and analysis of the frequency distributions of DNA polymorphisms strongly suggest range-wide expansions in population size. Using Bayesian Skyline Plots, we inferred the timing of population size expansions, which differ across lineages, and found evidence for a relatively recent and rapid westward expansion of green anoles across the Gulf Coastal Plain during the mid-Pleistocene. One surprising result is that the distribution of genetic diversity is not consistent with a latitudinal shift caused by climatic oscillations as is observed for many co-distributed taxa. This suggests that the most recent Pleistocene glacial cycles had a limited impact on the geographic distribution of the green anole at the northern limits of its range.     

Contrasting response to Pleistocene climate change by ground-living and arboreal Mandarina snails from the oceanic Hahajima archipelago

While the genetic impact of Pleistocene climate change on temperate species has been well characterized, especially in Europe and North America, an effect on the diversification of species on oceanic islands has been less well studied. This is perhaps a surprising observation given the traditional and continuing contribution of island species (e.g. Darwin's finches, Partula snails, Lord Howe Island palms) to understand speciation. Here, we combine mitochondrial and microsatellite data from the ground-living and arboreal Mandarina snails of the oceanic, subtropical Hahajima archipelago (Ogasawara, colloquially 'Galápagos of the Orient') to enable a comparative approach to understand the impact of the Pleistocene glaciations on their phylogeography. Prior work suggested that several narrowly divergent, ground-living species pairs of Mandarina populations on the outlying islands, as well as the low-lying southern and central parts of Hahajima, probably underwent bottlenecks and subsequent expansions during the recent Pleistocene. Here, the most striking finding is that largely arboreal species have deeply divergent, geographically restricted mitochondrial lineages, in contrast to a census size that is at least an order of magnitude lower than ground-living snails. As populations of both types are highly polymorphic at microsatellite loci, the systematic difference at the mitochondrial locus probably indicates a contrasting effect of the Pleistocene climate cycles on the two groups. We speculate that this may have partly come about owing to a reduced efficacy of natural selection on the more greatly structured populations of arboreal snails. If so, then a prediction is that the genome of other snails, or other species with limited mobility, will show a similar response to the Pleistocene climate cycles.     

Diversification in the Mexican horned lizard Phrynosoma orbiculare across a dynamic landscape

The widespread montane Mexican horned lizard Phrynosoma orbiculare (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) represents an ideal species to investigate the relative impacts of Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change on lineage diversification across the Mexican highlands. We used mitochondrial DNA to examine the maternal history of P. orbiculare and estimate the timing and tempo of lineage diversification. Based on our results, we inferred 11 geographically structured, well supported mitochondrial lineages within this species, suggesting P. orbiculare represents a species complex. Six divergences between lineages likely occurred during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, and four splits probably happened during the Pleistocene. Diversification rate appeared relatively constant through time. Spatial and temporal divergences between lineages of P. orbiculare and co-distributed taxa suggest that a distinct period of uplifting of the Transvolcanic Belt around 7.5-3 million years ago broadly impacted diversification in taxa associated with this mountain range. To the north, several river drainages acting as filter barriers differentially subdivided co-distributed highland taxa through time. Diversification patterns observed in P. orbiculare provide additional insight into the mechanisms that impacted differentiation of highland taxa across the complex Mexican highlands.     

Phylogeography of the Northern Alligator Lizard (Squamata,Anguidae): Hidden diversity in a western endemic

Western North America includes the California Floristic Province and the Pacific Northwest, biologically diverse regions highlighted by a complex topography, geology, climate and history. A number of animals span these regions and show distinctive patterns of dispersal, vicariance and lineage diversification. Examining phylogeographic patterns in the fauna of this area aids in our understanding of the forces that have contributed to the generation and maintenance of regional biodiversity. Here, we investigate the biogeography and population structure of the Northern Alligator Lizard (Elgaria coerulea), a wide‐ranging anguid endemic to western North America. We sequenced two mtDNA fragments (ND2 and ND4) for 181 individuals across the range of the species and analysed these data with phylogenetic approaches to infer population and biogeographic history, and date major divergences within the taxon. We further used Bayesian clustering methods to assess major patterns of population structure and performed ecological niche modelling (ENM) to aid in our interpretation of geographic structure and diversification of E. coerulea lineages. Our phylogeographic examination of E. coerulea uncovered surprising diversity and structure, recovering 10 major lineages, each with substantial geographic substructure. While some divergences within the species are relatively old (Pliocene, 5.3–2.6 mya), most intraspecific variation appears to be of more recent origin (Pleistocene, 2.6 mya‐11,700 ya). Current diversity appears to have arisen in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and spread west and north since the Pliocene. Finally, our ENMs suggest that much of the Coast Ranges in California provided ideal habitat during the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) that has since contracted dramatically and shifted northwards, whereas significant portions of the Sierra Nevada were unsuitable during the LGM and have since become more suitable. Interestingly, E. coerulea shares a number of genetic boundaries with other sympatric taxa, suggesting common historical events and geomorphological features have shaped the biota of this region.     

Complete taxon sampling of the avian genus Pica (magpies) reveals ancient relictual populations and synchronous Late‐Pleistocene demographic expansion across the Northern Hemisphere

Previous studies have suggested that bird populations in east Asia were less affected by Pleistocene climatic fluctuations than those in Europe and North America. However, this is mainly based on comparisons among species. It would be more relevant to analyse geographical populations of widespread species or species complexes. We analyzed two mitochondrial genes and two nuclear introns for all taxa of Pica to investigate 1) which Earth history factors have shaped the lineage divergence, and 2) whether different geographical populations were differently affected by the Pleistocene climatic changes. Our mitochondrial tree recovered three widespread lineages, 1) in east Asia, 2) across north Eurasia, and 3) in North America, respectively, with three isolated lineages in northwest Africa, Arabia and the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, respectively. Divergences among lineages took place 1.4–3.1 million yr ago. The northwest African population was sister to the others, which formed two main clades. In one of these, Arabia was sister to Qinghai‐Tibet, and these formed the sister clade to the east Asia clade. The other main clade comprised the North American and north Eurasian clades. There was no or very slight structure within these six geographical clades, including a lack of differentiation between the two North American species black‐billed magpie P. hudsonia and yellow‐billed magpie P. nutalli. Demographic expansion was recorded in the three most widespread lineages after 0.06 Ma. Asymmetric gene flow was recorded in the north Eurasian clade from southwestern Europe eastward, whereas the east Asian clade was rooted in south central China. Our results indicate that the fragmentation of the six clades of Pica was related to climatic cooling and aridification during periods of the Pliocene–Pleistocene. Populations on both sides of the Eurasian continent were similarly influenced by the Pleistocene climate changes and expanded concomitantly with the expansion of steppes. Based on results we also propose a revised taxonomy recognising seven species of Pica.     

Historical isolation,range expansion,and secondary contact of two highly divergent mitochondrial lineages in spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum)

Abstract.— The high species diversity of aquatic and terrestrial faunas in eastern North America has been attributed to range reductions and allopatric diversification resulting from historical climate change. The role these processes may have played in speciation is still a matter of considerable debate; however, their impacts on intraspecific genetic structure have been well documented. We use mitochondrial DNA sequences to reconstruct an intraspecific phylogeny of the widespread North American spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum , and test whether phylogenetic patterns conform to regional biogeographical hypotheses about the origins of diversity in eastern North America. Specifically, we address the number and locations of historical refugia, the extent and patterns of postglacial colonization by divergent lineages, and the origin and affinities of populations in the Interior Highland region. Despite apparent morphological uniformity, genetic discontinuities throughout the range of this species suggest that populations were historically fragmented in at least two refugia in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The ranges of these two highly divergent clades expanded northward, resulting in two widely distributed lineages that are sympatric in regions previously proposed as suture zones for other taxa. The evolutionary history of spotted salamander populations underscores the generality of biogeographical processes in eastern North America: despite differences in population size, glacial refugia, and vagility, similar signatures of differentiation are evident among and within widespread taxa.     

Mitochondrial phylogeography of moose (Alces alces): late pleistocene divergence and population expansion

We examined phylogeographic relationships of moose (Alces alces) worldwide to test the proposed existence of two geographic races and to infer the timing and extent of demographic processes underpinning the expansion of this species across the Northern Hemisphere in the late Pleistocene. Sequence variation within the left hypervariable domain of the control region occurred at low or moderate levels worldwide and was structured geographically. Partitioning of genetic variance among regions indicated that isolation by distance was the primary agent for differentiation of moose populations but does not support the existence of distinct eastern and western races. Levels of genetic variation and structure of phylogenetic trees identify Asia as the origin of all extant mitochondrial lineages. A recent coalescence is indicated, with the most recent common ancestor dating to the last ice age. Moose have undergone two episodes of population expansion, likely corresponding to the final interstade of the most recent ice age and the onset of the current interglacial. Timing of expansion for the population in the Yakutia--Manchuria region of eastern Asia indicates that it is one of the oldest populations of moose and may represent the source of founders of extant populations in North America, which were colonized within the last 15,000 years. Our data suggest an extended period of low population size or a severe bottleneck prior to the divergence and expansion of extant lineages and a recent, less-severe bottleneck among European lineages. Climate change during the last ice age, acting through contraction and expansion of moose habitat and the flooding of the Bering land bridge, undoubtedly was a key factor influencing the divergence and expansion of moose populations.     

Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew,Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.     

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.     

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10‐year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2‐year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long‐term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10‐year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940–1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10‐year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare–lynx system.