Egg‐laying environment modulates offspring responses to predation risk in an amphibian

Predator‐induced plasticity has been in the focus of evolutionary ecological research in the last decades, but the consequences of temporal variation in the presence of cues predicting offspring environment have remained controversial. This is partly due to the fact that the role of early environmental effects has scarcely been scrutinized in this context while also controlling for potential maternal effects. In this study, we investigated how past environmental conditions, that is different combinations of risky or safe adult (prenatal) and oviposition (early post‐natal) environments, affected offspring's plastic responses in hatching time and locomotor activity to predation risk during development in the smooth newt (Lissotriton vulgaris). We found that females did not adjust their reproductive investment to the perceived level of risk in the adult environment, and this prenatal environment had generally negligible effect on offspring phenotype. However, when predator cues were absent during oviposition, larvae raised in the presence of predator cues delayed their hatching and exhibited a decreased activity compared to control larvae developing without predator cues, which responses are advantageous when predators pose a threat to hatched larvae. In the presence of predator cues during oviposition, the difference in hatching time persisted, but the difference in general locomotor activity disappeared between risk‐exposed and control larvae. Our findings provide clear experimental evidence that fine‐scale temporal variation in a predictive cue during and after egg‐laying interactively affects offspring phenotype, and highlight the importance of the early post‐natal environment, which may exert a substantial influence on progeny's phenotype also under natural conditions.     

THE CONTRIBUTION OF MATERNAL EFFECTS TO SELECTION RESPONSE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF COMPETING MODELS

Maternal effects can dramatically influence the evolutionary process, in some cases facilitating and in others hindering adaptive evolution. Maternal effects have been incorporated into quantitative genetic models using two theoretical frameworks: the variance‐components approach, which partitions variance into direct and maternal components, and the trait‐based approach, which assumes that maternal effects are mediated by specific maternal traits. Here, we demonstrate parallels between these models and test their ability to predict evolutionary change. First, we show that the two approaches predict equivalent responses to selection in the absence of maternal effects mediated by traits that are themselves maternally influenced. We also introduce a correction factor that may be applied when such cascading maternal effects are present. Second, we use several maternal effect models, as well as the standard breeder's equation, to predict evolution in response to artificial selection on flowering time in American bellflower, Campanulastrum americanum. Models that included maternal effects made much more accurate predictions of selection response than the breeder's equation. Maternal effect models differed somewhat in their fit, with a version of the trait‐based model providing the best fit. We recommend fitting such trait‐based models when possible and appropriate to make the most accurate evolutionary predictions.     

Plasticity and evolution in correlated suites of traits

When organisms are faced with new or changing environments, a central challenge is the coordination of adaptive shifts in many different phenotypic traits. Relationships among traits may facilitate or constrain evolutionary responses to selection, depending on whether the direction of selection is aligned or opposed to the pattern of trait correlations. Attempts to predict evolutionary potential in correlated traits generally assume that correlations are stable across time and space; however, increasing evidence suggests that this may not be the case, and flexibility in trait correlations could bias evolutionary trajectories. We examined genetic and environmental influences on variation and covariation in a suite of behavioural traits to understand if and how flexibility in trait correlations influences adaptation to novel environments. We tested the role of genetic and environmental influences on behavioural trait correlations by comparing Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) historically adapted to high‐ and low‐predation environments that were reared under native and non‐native environmental conditions. Both high‐ and low‐predation fish exhibited increased behavioural variance when reared under non‐native vs. native environmental conditions, and rearing in the non‐native environment shifted the major axis of variation among behaviours. Our findings emphasize that trait correlations observed in one population or environment may not predict correlations in another and that environmentally induced plasticity in correlations may bias evolutionary divergence in novel environments.     

Evolutionary importance of parental care performance,food resources,and direct and indirect genetic effects in a burying beetle

Indirect genetic effects (IGE) of parental care performance and the direct–indirect covariance contribute substantially to total heritability in domesticated and laboratory mammals. For animals from natural populations empirical estimates of IGE are sparse. Thus, despite recent models relating IGE to evolution, evolutionary interpretations of IGE are limited. To address this deficit, we used a reciprocal cross‐fostering breeding design to estimate environmental influences, direct and indirect genetic effects, and direct–indirect genetic covariances in the burying beetle Nicrophorus pustulatus to determine the evolutionary importance of IGE arising from variation in parental care performance. Carrion size positively affected adult mass and time on carrion, but had no effect on total development time. Males were slightly larger than females. For both mass and development, independent of these environmental influences, direct and indirect genetic effects were of moderate magnitude. Total genetic effects explained 36–50% of the phenotypic variance in mass and size and 27–37% of phenotypic variance in development time. Direct–indirect genetic covariances were zero or close to zero. Thus, for both mass and development time, the response to natural selection arising from environmental variation may be accelerated by the presence of IGE in N. pustulatus. The generality of this pattern and the evolutionary significance of IGE arising from parental care awaits further study of natural populations.     

Genetic and phenotypic sources of life history variation along a cline in voltinism in the cricket Allonemobius socius

Clinal variation in life histories can be genetically based, resulting from selection imposed by different environments, or it may be due to the differential expression of phenotypically plastic traits. We examined the cline in voltinism in the egg-diapausing cricket Allonemobius socius, with populations spanning the switch from a univoltine to a bivoltine phenology. A common garden experiment was employed, using environments that mimicked photoperiod and temperature conditions found in the field. There were only small differences in development time among populations, and the difference in phenology observed in the field is likely due to clinal variation in the length of the growing season. We found large genetically-based differences in the reaction norm for egg diapause that were further magnified by environmental cues. The synergism of genetic and environmental effects was an example of cogradient selection. In the zone of transition between phenologies, voltinism appeared to be a conditional strategy, rather than a genetic polymorphism. First-generation females from this area can lay either direct-developing or diapause eggs depending on the likelihood that a second generation will have sufficient time to develop. For this species, the cline in voltinism is the result of a combination of environmental effects on development, and genetic and environmental influences on egg diapause propensity.     

Competition as a source of constraint on life history evolution in natural populations

Competition among individuals is central to our understanding of ecology and population dynamics. However, it could also have major implications for the evolution of resource-dependent life history traits (for example, growth, fecundity) that are important determinants of fitness in natural populations. This is because when competition occurs, the phenotype of each individual will be causally influenced by the phenotypes, and so the genotypes, of competitors. Theory tells us that indirect genetic effects arising from competitive interactions will give rise to the phenomenon of ‘evolutionary environmental deterioration'', and act as a source of evolutionary constraint on resource-dependent traits under natural selection. However, just how important this constraint is remains an unanswered question. This article seeks to stimulate empirical research in this area, first highlighting some patterns emerging from life history studies that are consistent with a competition-based model of evolutionary constraint, before describing several quantitative modelling strategies that could be usefully applied. A recurrent theme is that rigorous quantification of a competition''s impact on life history evolution will require an understanding of the causal pathways and behavioural processes by which genetic (co)variance structures arise. Knowledge of the G-matrix among life history traits is not, in and of itself, sufficient to identify the constraints caused by competition.     

Age and sex affect quantitative genetic parameters for dominance rank and aggression in free‐living greylag geese

Knowledge of the genetic and environmental influences on a character is pivotal for understanding evolutionary changes in quantitative traits in natural populations. Dominance and aggression are ubiquitous traits that are selectively advantageous in many animal societies and have the potential to impact the evolutionary trajectory of animal populations. Here we provide age‐ and sex‐specific estimates of additive genetic and environmental components of variance for dominance rank and aggression rate in a free‐living, human‐habituated bird population subject to natural selection. We use a long‐term data set on individually marked greylag geese (Anser anser) and show that phenotypic variation in dominance‐related behaviours contains significant additive genetic variance, parental effects and permanent environment effects. The relative importance of these variance components varied between age and sex classes, whereby the most pronounced differences concerned nongenetic components. In particular, parental effects were larger in juveniles of both sexes than in adults. In paired adults, the partner's identity had a larger influence on male dominance rank and aggression rate than in females. In sex‐ and age‐specific estimates, heritabilities did not differ significantly between age and sex classes. Adult dominance rank was only weakly genetically correlated between the sexes, leading to considerably higher heritabilities in sex‐specific estimates than across sexes. We discuss these patterns in relation to selection acting on dominance rank and aggression in different life history stages and sexes and suggest that different adaptive optima could be a mechanism for maintaining genetic variation in dominance‐related traits in free‐living animal populations.     

Introducing biological realism into the study of developmental plasticity in behaviour

There is increasing attention for integrating mechanistic and functional approaches to the study of (behavioural) development. As environments are mostly unstable, it is now often assumed that genetic parental information is in many cases not sufficient for offspring to become optimally adapted to the environment and that early environmental cues, either indirectly via the parents or from direct experience, are necessary to prepare them for a specific environment later in life. To study whether these early developmental processes are adaptive and through which mechanism, not only the early environmental cues but also how they impinge on the later-life environmental context has therefore to be taken into account when measuring the animal's performance. We first discuss at the conceptual level six ways in which interactions between influences of different time windows during development may act (consolidation, cumulative information gathering and priming, compensation, buffering, matching and mismatching, context dependent trait expression). In addition we discuss how different environmental factors during the same time window may interact in shaping the phenotype during development. Next we discuss the pros and cons of several experimental designs for testing these interaction effects, highlighting the necessity for full, reciprocal designs and the importance of adjusting the nature and time of manipulation to the animal's adaptive capacity. We then review support for the interaction effects from both theoretical models and animal experiments in different taxa. This demonstrates indeed the existence of interactions at multiple levels, including different environmental factors, different time windows and between generations. As a consequence, development is a life-long, environment-dependent process and therefore manipulating only the early environment without taking interaction effects with other and later environmental influences into account may lead to wrong conclusions and may also explain inconsistent results in the literature.     

Estimates of direct and indirect effects for early juvenile survival in captive populations maintained for conservation purposes: the case of Cuvier's gazelle

Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life‐history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115–0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to selection in the captive population.     

Evolution of Adaptation and Mate Choice: Parental Relatedness Affects Expression of Phenotypic Variance in a Natural Population

Mating between relatives generally results in reduced offspring viability or quality, suggesting that selection should favor behaviors that minimize inbreeding. However, in natural populations where searching is costly or variation among potential mates is limited, inbreeding is often common and may have important consequences for both offspring fitness and phenotypic variation. In particular, offspring morphological variation often increases with greater parental relatedness, yet the source of this variation, and thus its evolutionary significance, are poorly understood. One proposed explanation is that inbreeding influences a developing organism’s sensitivity to its environment and therefore the increased phenotypic variation observed in inbred progeny is due to greater inputs from environmental and maternal sources. Alternatively, changes in phenotypic variation with inbreeding may be due to additive genetic effects alone when heterozygotes are phenotypically intermediate to homozygotes, or effects of inbreeding depression on condition, which can itself affect sensitivity to environmental variation. Here we examine the effect of parental relatedness (as inferred from neutral genetic markers) on heritable and nonheritable components of developmental variation in a wild bird population in which mate choice is often constrained, thereby leading to inbreeding. We found greater morphological variation and distinct contributions of variance components in offspring from highly related parents: inbred offspring tended to have greater environmental and lesser additive genetic variance compared to outbred progeny. The magnitude of this difference was greatest in late-maturing traits, implicating the accumulation of environmental variation as the underlying mechanism. Further, parental relatedness influenced the effect of an important maternal trait (egg size) on offspring development. These results support the hypothesis that inbreeding leads to greater sensitivity of development to environmental variation and maternal effects, suggesting that the evolutionary response to selection will depend strongly on mate choice patterns and population structure.     

Phenotypic plasticity,but not adaptive tracking,underlies seasonal variation in post‐cold hardening freeze tolerance of Drosophila melanogaster

In temperate regions, an organism's ability to rapidly adapt to seasonally varying environments is essential for its survival. In response to seasonal changes in selection pressure caused by variation in temperature, humidity, and food availability, some organisms exhibit plastic changes in phenotype. In other cases, seasonal variation in selection pressure can rapidly increase the frequency of genotypes that offer survival or reproductive advantages under the current conditions. Little is known about the relative influences of plastic and genetic changes in short‐lived organisms experiencing seasonal environmental fluctuations. Cold hardening is a seasonally relevant plastic response in which exposure to cool, but nonlethal, temperatures significantly increases the organism's ability to later survive at freezing temperatures. In the present study, we demonstrate seasonal variation in cold hardening in Drosophila melanogaster and test the extent to which plasticity and adaptive tracking underlie that seasonal variation. We measured the post‐cold hardening freeze tolerance of flies from outdoor mesocosms over the summer, fall, and winter. We bred outdoor mesocosm‐caught flies for two generations in the laboratory and matched each outdoor cohort to an indoor control cohort of similar genetic background. We cold hardened all flies under controlled laboratory conditions and then measured their post‐cold hardening freeze tolerance. Comparing indoor and field‐caught flies and their laboratory‐reared G1 and G2 progeny allowed us to determine the roles of seasonal environmental plasticity, parental effects, and genetic changes on cold hardening. We also tested the relationship between cold hardening and other factors, including age, developmental density, food substrate, presence of antimicrobials, and supplementation with live yeast. We found strong plastic responses to a variety of field‐ and laboratory‐based environmental effects, but no evidence of seasonally varying parental or genetic effects on cold hardening. We therefore conclude that seasonal variation in post‐cold hardening freeze tolerance results from environmental influences and not genetic changes.     

Environmentally induced changes in correlated responses to selection reveal variable pleiotropy across a complex genetic network

Selection in novel environments can lead to a coordinated evolutionary response across a suite of characters. Environmental conditions can also potentially induce changes in the genetic architecture of complex traits, which in turn could alter the pattern of the multivariate response to selection. We describe a factorial selection experiment using the nematode Caenorhabditis remanei in which two different stress‐related phenotypes (heat and oxidative stress resistance) were selected under three different environmental conditions. The pattern of covariation in the evolutionary response between phenotypes or across environments differed depending on the environment in which selection occurred, including asymmetrical responses to selection in some cases. These results indicate that variation in pleiotropy across the stress response network is highly sensitive to the external environment. Our findings highlight the complexity of the interaction between genes and environment that influences the ability of organisms to acclimate to novel environments. They also make clear the need to identify the underlying genetic basis of genetic correlations in order understand how patterns of pleiotropy are distributed across complex genetic networks.     

Evolutionary potential of a widespread clonal grass under changing climate

Adaptive responses are probably the most effective long‐term responses of populations to climate change, but they require sufficient evolutionary potential upon which selection can act. This requires high genetic variance for the traits under selection and low antagonizing genetic covariances between the different traits. Evolutionary potential estimates are still scarce for long‐lived, clonal plants, although these species are predicted to dominate the landscape with climate change. We studied the evolutionary potential of a perennial grass, Festuca rubra, in western Norway, in two controlled environments corresponding to extreme environments in natural populations: cold–dry and warm–wet, the latter being consistent with the climatic predictions for the country. We estimated genetic variances, covariances, selection gradients and response to selection for a wide range of growth, resource acquisition and physiological traits, and compared their estimates between the environments. We showed that the evolutionary potential of F. rubra is high in both environments, and genetic covariances define one main direction along which selection can act with relatively few constraints to selection. The observed response to selection at present is not sufficient to produce genotypes adapted to the predicted climate change under a simple, space for time substitution model. However, the current populations contain genotypes which are pre‐adapted to the new climate, especially for growth and resource acquisition traits. Overall, these results suggest that the present populations of the long‐lived clonal plant may have sufficient evolutionary potential to withstand long‐term climate changes through adaptive responses.     

RESPONSE TO NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL HETEROGENEITY: MATERNAL EFFECTS AND SELECTION ON LIFE-HISTORY CHARACTERS AND PLASTICITIES IN MIMULUS GUTTATUS

Recent studies in plant populations have found that environmental heterogeneity and phenotypic selection vary at local spatial scales. In this study, I ask if there is evolutionary change in response to environmental heterogeneity and, if so, whether the response occurs for characters or character plasticities. I used vegetative clones of Mimulus guttatus to create replicate populations of 75 genotypes. These populations were planted into the natural habitat where they differed in mean growth, flowering phenology, and life span. This phenotypic variation was used to define selective environments. There was variation in fitness (flower production) among genotypes across all planting sites and in genotype response to the selective environment. Offspring from each site were grown in the greenhouse in two water treatments. Because each population initially had the same genetic composition, variation in the progeny between selective environments reveals either evolutionary change in response to environmental heterogeneity or environmental maternal effects. Plants from experimental sites that flowered earlier, had shorter life spans and were less productive, produced offspring that had more flowers, on average, and were less plastic in vegetative allocation than offspring of longer-lived plants from high-productivity areas. However, environmental maternal effects masked phenotypic differences in flower production. Therefore, although there was evidence of genetic differentiation in both life-history characters and their plasticities in response to small-scale environmental heterogeneity, environmental maternal effects may slow evolutionary change. Response to local-scale selective regimes suggests that environmental heterogeneity and local variation in phenotypic selection may act to maintain genetic variation.     

Genetic architecture of survival and fitness-related traits in two populations of Atlantic salmon

The additive genetic effects of traits can be used to predict evolutionary trajectories, such as responses to selection. Non-additive genetic and maternal environmental effects can also change evolutionary trajectories and influence phenotypes, but these effects have received less attention by researchers. We partitioned the phenotypic variance of survival and fitness-related traits into additive genetic, non-additive genetic and maternal environmental effects using a full-factorial breeding design within two allopatric populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Maternal environmental effects were large at early life stages, but decreased during development, with non-additive genetic effects being most significant at later juvenile stages (alevin and fry). Non-additive genetic effects were also, on average, larger than additive genetic effects. The populations, generally, did not differ in the trait values or inferred genetic architecture of the traits. Any differences between the populations for trait values could be explained by maternal environmental effects. We discuss whether the similarities in architectures of these populations is the result of natural selection across a common juvenile environment.     

Evolutionary constraints of warning signals: A genetic trade‐off between the efficacy of larval and adult warning coloration can maintain variation in signal expression

To predict evolutionary responses of warning signals under selection, we need to determine the inheritance pattern of the signals, and how they are genetically correlated with other traits contributing to fitness. Furthermore, protective coloration often undergoes remarkable changes within an individual's lifecycle, requiring us to quantify the genetic constraints of adaptive coloration across all the relevant life stages. Based on a 12 generation pedigree with > 11,000 individuals of the wood tiger moth (Arctia plantaginis), we show that high primary defense as a larva (large warning signal) results in weaker defenses as adult (less efficient warning color), due to the negative genetic correlation between the efficacy of larval and adult warning coloration. However, production of effective warning coloration as a larva did not incur any life‐history costs and was positively genetically correlated with reproductive output. These results provide novel insights into the evolutionary constraints on protective coloration in animals, and explain the maintenance of variation in the signal expression despite the strong directional selection by predators. By analyzing the genetic and environmental effects on warning signal and life‐history traits in all relevant life stages, we can accurately determine the mechanisms shaping the evolutionary responses of phenotypic traits under different selection environments.     

The evolution of unconditional strategies via the 'multiplier effect'

Ostensibly, it makes sense in a changeable world to condition behaviour and development on information when it is available. Nevertheless, unconditional behavioural and life history strategies are widespread. Here, we show how intergenerational effects can limit the evolutionary value of responding to reliable environmental cues, and thus favour the evolutionary persistence of otherwise paradoxical unconditional strategies. While cue-ignoring genotypes do poorly in the wrong environments, in the right environment they will leave many copies of themselves, which will themselves leave many copies, and so on, leading genotypes to accumulate in habitats in which they do well. We call this 'The Multiplier Effect'. We explore the consequences of the multiplier effect by focussing on the ecologically important phenomenon of natal philopatry. We model the environment as a large number of temporally varying breeding sites connected by natal dispersal between sites. Our aim is to identify which aspects of an environment promote the multiplier effect. We show, if sites remain connected through some background level of 'accidental' dispersal, unconditional natal philopatry can evolve even when there is density dependence (with its accompanying kin competition effects), and cues that are only mildly erroneous. Thus, the multiplier effect may underpin the evolution and maintenance of unconditional strategies such as natal philopatry in many biological systems.     

Transgenerational plasticity of inducible defences: Combined effects of grand‐parental,parental and current environments

Phenotypic plasticity can occur across generations (transgenerational plasticity) when environments experienced by the previous generations influenced offspring phenotype. The evolutionary importance of transgenerational plasticity, especially regarding within‐generational plasticity, is a currently hot topic in the plasticity framework. How long an environmental effect can persist across generations and whether multigenerational effects are cumulative are primordial—for the evolutionary significance of transgenerational plasticity—but still unresolved questions. In this study, we investigated how the grand‐parental, parental and offspring exposures to predation cues shape the predator‐induced defences of offspring in the Physa acuta snail. We expected that the offspring phenotypes result from a three‐way interaction among grand‐parental, parental and offspring environments. We exposed three generations of snails without and with predator cues according to a full factorial design and measured offspring inducible defences. We found that both grand‐parental and parental exposures to predator cues impacted offspring antipredator defences, but their effects were not cumulative and depended on the defences considered. We also highlighted that the grand‐parental environment did alter reaction norms of offspring shell thickness, demonstrating an interaction between the grand‐parental transgenerational plasticity and the within‐generational plasticity. We concluded that the effects of multigenerational exposure to predator cues resulted on complex offspring phenotypic patterns which are difficult to relate to adaptive antipredator advantages.     

Developmental and genetic effects on behavioral and life‐history traits in a field cricket

A fundamental goal of evolutionary ecology is to identify the sources underlying trait variation on which selection can act. Phenotypic variation will be determined by both genetic and environmental factors, and adaptive phenotypic plasticity is expected when organisms can adjust their phenotypes to match environmental cues. Much recent research interest has focused on the relative importance of environmental and genetic factors on the expression of behavioral traits, in particular, and how they compare with morphological and life‐history traits. Little research to date examines the effect of development on the expression of heritable variation in behavioral traits, such as boldness and activity. We tested for genotype, environment, and genotype‐by‐environment differences in body mass, development time, boldness, and activity, using developmental density treatments combined with a quantitative genetic design in the sand field cricket (Gryllus firmus). Similar to results from previous work, animals reared at high densities were generally smaller and took longer to mature, and body mass and development time were moderately heritable. In contrast, neither boldness nor activity responded to density treatments, and they were not heritable. The only trait that showed significant genotype‐by‐environment differences was development time. It is possible that adaptive behavioral plasticity is not evident in this species because of the highly variable social environments it naturally experiences. Our results illustrate the importance of validating the assumption that behavioral phenotype reflects genetic patterns and suggest questions about the role of environmental instability in trait variation and heritability.     

When mother knows best: A population genetic model of transgenerational versus intragenerational plasticity

Many organisms exhibit phenotypic plasticity; producing alternate phenotypes depending on the environment. Individuals can be plastic (intragenerational or direct plasticity), wherein individuals of the same genotype produce different phenotypes in response to the environments they experience. Alternatively, an individual's phenotype may be under the control of its parents, usually the mother (transgenerational or indirect plasticity), so that mother's genotype determines the phenotype produced by a given genotype of her offspring. Under what conditions does plasticity evolve to have intragenerational as opposed to transgenerational genetic control? To explore this question, we present a population genetic model for the evolution of transgenerational and intragenerational plasticity. We hypothesize that the capacity for plasticity incurs a fitness cost, which is borne either by the individual developing the plastic phenotype or by its mother. We also hypothesize that individuals are imperfect predictors of future environments and their capacity for plasticity can lead them occasionally to make a low‐fitness phenotype for a particular environment. When the cost, benefit and error parameters are equal, we show that there is no evolutionary advantage to intragenerational over transgenerational plasticity, although the rate of evolution of transgenerational plasticity is half the rate for intragenerational plasticity, as predicted by theory on indirect genetic effects. We find that transgenerational plasticity evolves when mothers are better predictors of future environments than offspring or when the fitness cost of the capacity for plasticity is more readily borne by a mother than by her developing offspring. We discuss different natural systems with either direct intragenerational plasticity or indirect transgenerational plasticity and find a pattern qualitatively in accord with the predictions of our model.