Estimated HIV Trends and Program Effects in Botswana

Background

This study uses surveillance, survey and program data to estimate past trends and current levels of HIV in Botswana and the effects of treatment and prevention programs.

Methods/Principal Findings

Data from sentinel surveillance at antenatal clinics and a national population survey were used to estimate the trend of adult HIV prevalence from 1980 to 2007. Using the prevalence trend we estimated the number of new adult infections, the transmission from mothers to children, the need for treatment and the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and adult and child deaths. Prevalence has declined slowly in urban areas since 2000 and has remained stable in rural areas. National prevalence is estimated at 26% (25–27%) in 2007. About 330,000 (318,000–335,000) people are infected with HIV including 20,000 children. The number of new adult infections has been stable for several years at about 20,000 annually (12,000–26,000). The number of new child infections has declined from 4600 in 1999 to about 890 (810–980) today due to nearly complete coverage of an effective program to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). The annual number of adult deaths has declined from a peak of over 15,500 in 2003 to under 7400 (5000–11,000) today due to coverage of ART that reaches over 80% in need. The need for ART will increase by 60% by 2016.

Conclusions

Botswana''s PMTCT and treatment programs have achieved significant results in preventing new child infections and deaths among adults and children. The number of new adult infections continues at a high level. More effective prevention efforts are urgently needed.     

Needle exchange programs: an economic evaluation of a local experience

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether providing a needle exchange program to prevent HIV transmission among injection drug users would cost less than the health care consequences of not having such a program. DESIGN: Incidence outcome model to estimate the number of cases of HIV infection that this program would prevent over 5 years, assuming that the HIV incidence rate would be 2% with the program and 4% without it, and that an estimated 275 injection drug users would use the service over this time. SETTING: Hamilton, Ont. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated number of cases of HIV infection expected to be prevented with and without the program over 5 years; estimated lifetime health care costs of treating an AIDS patient. The indirect costs of AIDS to society (e.g., lost productivity and informal caregiving) were not included. Projected costs were adjusted (discounted) to reflect their present value. In a sensitivity analysis, 3 parameters were varied: the estimate of the HIV transmission rate if no needle exchange program were provided, the number of injection drug users participating in the program, and the discount rate. RESULTS: With very conservative estimates, it was predicted that the Hamilton needle exchange program will prevent 24 cases of HIV infection over 5 years, thereby providing cost savings of $1.3 million after the program costs are taken into account. This translates into a ratio of cost savings to costs of 4:1. The sensitivity analysis confirmed that these findings are robust. CONCLUSION: Needle exchange programs are an efficient use of financial resources.     

Costs of Rapid HIV Screening in an Urban Emergency Department and a Nearby County Jail in the Southeastern United States

Emergency departments and jails provide medical services to persons at risk for HIV infection and are recommended venues for HIV screening. Our main objective in this study was to analyze the cost per new HIV diagnosis associated with the HIV screening program in these two venues. The emergency department’s parallel testing program was conducted at Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia starting in 2008; the jail’s integrated testing program began at the Fulton County (GA) Jail in 2011. The two sites, four miles apart from one another, employed the same rapid HIV test. Ascertainment that cases were new differed by site; only the jail systematically checked identities against health department HIV registries. The program in the emergency department used dedicated HIV test counselors and made 242 diagnoses over a 40-month period at a cost of $2,981 per diagnosis. The jail program used staff nurses, and found 41 new HIV cases over 10.5 months at a cost of $6,688 per new diagnosis. Differences in methods for ascertainment of new diagnoses, previously undiagnosed HIV sero-positivity, and methodologies used for assessing program costs prevent concluding that one program was more economical than the other. Nonetheless, our findings show that testing in both venues yielded many new diagnoses, with the costs within the range reported in the literature.     

Commentary remarks on “HIV/AIDS in China”

The global AIDS epidemic continues to spread in the world. HIV in Factor Ⅷ infected the first Chinese in 1983, while the first AIDS patient was reported in 1985 in China. By the end of 2003, the cumulative estimated number of citizens living with HIV/AIDS is 840,000. At the end of September 2005, the cumulative number of reported HIV/AIDS cases is 135,630. These reports indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is spreading in the general population and that the proportion of female HIV case has increased considerably in recent years. It is predicted that there will be about 10 millions HIV/AIDS cases in China by the year 2010 if the appropriate and sufficient action against the AIDS epidemic is not taken.     

Prevention and control of HIV infection in the Osh region of the Kyrgyz Republic

A total of 178 cases of HIV infection were diagnosed in the Osh region of the Kyrgyz Republic for January 1, 2003, the intensity of the prevalence of HIV infection being 14.5 per 100,000 of the population with this figure for the whole republic being equal to 5.9. In the dynamics of the HIV infection epidemic two periods were detected. During the first 3 years (1998-2000) a few individual imported cases of HIV infection were registered in the region. During the last 2 years (2001-2002) 98.8% of all cases of HIV infection registered in the region, as well as the presence of an epidemic outbreak among injection drug users (IDU), were detected. The risk factors of getting HIV infection were the intravenous use of drugs and a low level of information among young people concerning the routes of transmission of this infection and means of protection from HIV/AIDS: the promotion of healthy life style among young people, the introduction of the programs of "harm reduction" among IDU and the rules of safe sex.     

A missing piece in the puzzle: HIV in mature adults in sub-Saharan Africa

Healthcare and social needs for mature adults aged 50 years or older differ from those of younger adults due to stigma concerning HIV in older people, beliefs that engagement in sexual activity no longer applies, age driven comorbidities and responses to antiretroviral treatment, which complicate HIV diagnosis and management. In the face of a growing HIV epidemic in mature adults, mostly due to infected people aging with HIV, but also due to new infections in this age group, HIV services, which mostly cater for HIV in young adults and children, and HIV education messages and interventions, which mainly target young adults, leave the mature adult exposed and vulnerable to HIV transmission and to a lack of care and treatment thereafter.     

An analysis of an outbreak of HIV infection in the city of Svetlogorsk, the Republic of Byelarus, among persons using injected narcotics

The examination of all persons suspected in the use narcotics (including suppliers and vendors of drugs) in Svetlogorsk (Belarus) for the presence of antibodies to HIV revealed 811 cases of HIV infection, i.e. 1% of the whole population was found to be infected by HIV. More than 90% of all HIV-infected persons were drug addicts introducing narcotic intravenously; young people aged 18 to 29 years constituted 81% (of these, 76% were males and 24% were females). The rapid spread of HIV was caused by the use of a ready-made HIV-infected drug which had been supplied for sale and could have been infected in the process of manufacture or packing.     

The role of integration and clonal expansion in HIV infection: live long and prosper

Integration of viral DNA into the host genome is a central event in the replication cycle and the pathogenesis of retroviruses, including HIV. Although most cells infected with HIV are rapidly eliminated in vivo, HIV also infects long-lived cells that persist during combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Cells with replication competent HIV proviruses form a reservoir that persists despite cART and such reservoirs are at the center of efforts to eradicate or control infection without cART. The mechanisms of persistence of these chronically infected long-lived cells is uncertain, but recent research has demonstrated that the presence of the HIV provirus has enduring effects on infected cells. Cells with integrated proviruses may persist for many years, undergo clonal expansion, and produce replication competent HIV. Even proviruses with defective genomes can produce HIV RNA and may contribute to ongoing HIV pathogenesis. New analyses of HIV infected cells suggest that over time on cART, there is a shift in the composition of the population of HIV infected cells, with the infected cells that persist over prolonged periods having proviruses integrated in genes associated with regulation of cell growth. In several cases, strong evidence indicates the presence of the provirus in specific genes may determine persistence, proliferation, or both. These data have raised the intriguing possibility that after cART is introduced, a selection process enriches for cells with proviruses integrated in genes associated with cell growth regulation. The dynamic nature of populations of cells infected with HIV during cART is not well understood, but is likely to have a profound influence on the composition of the HIV reservoir with critical consequences for HIV eradication and control strategies. As such, integration studies will shed light on understanding viral persistence and inform eradication and control strategies. Here we review the process of HIV integration, the role that integration plays in persistence, clonal expansion of the HIV reservoir, and highlight current challenges and outstanding questions for future research.     

Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study

BackgroundWorldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%.Methodology/Principal findingsThe individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years.Conclusion/SignificanceThe leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Brief and Expanded Evidence-Based Risk Reduction Interventions for HIV-Infected People Who Inject Drugs in the United States

AimsTwo behavioral HIV prevention interventions for people who inject drugs (PWID) infected with HIV include the Holistic Health Recovery Program for HIV+ (HHRP+), a comprehensive evidence-based CDC-supported program, and an abbreviated Holistic Health for HIV (3H+) Program, an adapted HHRP+ version in treatment settings. We compared the projected health benefits and cost-effectiveness of both programs, in addition to opioid substitution therapy (OST), to the status quo in the U.S.MethodsA dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to epidemic data of current US populations was created. Projected outcomes include future HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained under alternative strategies. Total medical costs were estimated to compare the cost-effectiveness of each strategy.ResultsOver 10 years, expanding HHRP+ access to 80% of PWID could avert up to 29,000 HIV infections, or 6% of the projected total, at a cost of $7,777/QALY gained. Alternatively, 3H+ could avert 19,000 infections, but is slightly more cost-effective ($7,707/QALY), and remains so under widely varying effectiveness and cost assumptions. Nearly two-thirds of infections averted with either program are among non-PWIDs, due to reduced sexual transmission from PWID to their partners. Expanding these programs with broader OST coverage could avert up to 74,000 HIV infections over 10 years and reduce HIV prevalence from 16.5% to 14.1%, but is substantially more expensive than HHRP+ or 3H+ alone.ConclusionsBoth behavioral interventions were effective and cost-effective at reducing HIV incidence among both PWID and the general adult population; however, 3H+, the economical HHRP+ version, was slightly more cost-effective than HHRP+.     

U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin,population history,and characterization of early strains

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on different lineages. When sequences were grouped by years of collection, nucleotide distance comparisons demonstrated an increase in diversity over time and indicated that contemporary strains are more closely related to early epidemic strains than to each other. Using a recently developed likelihood ratio reduction procedure, the date of origin of the U.S. epidemic was estimated to be 1968 +/- 1.4 years. A coalescent approach was also used to estimate the population history of the U.S. subtype B epidemic. Our analyses provide new information that implies an exponential growth rate from the beginning of the U.S. HIV epidemic. The dating results suggest a U.S. introduction date (or date of divergence from the most recent common ancestor) that precedes the date of the earliest known AIDS cases in the late 1970s. Furthermore, the estimated epidemic growth curve shows a period of exponential growth that preceded most of the early documented cases and also indicates a leveling of prevalence rates in the recent past.     

Estimation of Population Vaccination Effectiveness from HIV Vaccine Trials

Longini , Datta , and Halloran (1996) proposed to design HIV vaccine trials in a way that will permit the simultaneous estimation of the vaccine effects on susceptibility to infection and on infectiousness of vaccine brak-throughs. The main feature of their design is the inclusion of steady partners of trial participants. They estimate four parameters from the vaccine trial: the probability that a susceptible person will become infected from his/her steady partner, the probability of becoming infected from outside the partnership, the vaccine efficacy for susceptibility and the vaccine efficacy for infectiousness. We show how the estimates of these parameters can be used to predict the attack rate in a given population during a specified period following mass-vaccination. This is an iterative method, as the attack rate depends on the HIV prevalence which, in turn, depends on the number of new cases during that period. The same method is also used to estimate the attack rate in that population during the same period in the absence of vaccination. The estimated attack rates allow us to estimate the population vaccination effectiveness, defined as the fraction HIV cases prevented by a vaccination program.     

The role of sexually transmitted diseases in HIV transmission

More than 42 million people worldwide are now infected with HIV, in spite of sustained prevention activities. Although the spread of HIV has been primarily sexual, epidemiological studies have indicated that the efficiency of the spread of HIV is poor, perhaps as infrequently as 1 in every 1,000 episodes of sexual intercourse. However, sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) that cause ulcers or inflammation greatly increase the efficiency of HIV transmission--by increasing both the infectiousness of, and the susceptibility to HIV infection. STDs might be particularly important in the early stages of a localized HIV epidemic, when people with risky sexual behaviour are most likely to become infected. In China, eastern Europe and Russia, there has been a remarkable increase in the incidence of STDs in recent years, and this is reflected in the rapid increase in the spread of HIV in these areas. Targeted STD detection and treatment should have a central role in HIV prevention in these emerging epidemics.     

Estimating HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis need and impact in Malawi,Mozambique and Zambia: A geospatial and risk-based analysis

BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a WHO-recommended HIV prevention method for people at high risk for acquiring HIV, is being increasingly implemented in many countries. Setting programmatic targets, particularly in generalised epidemics, could incorporate estimates of the size of the population likely to be eligible for PrEP using incidence-based thresholds. We estimated the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for PrEP and the number of HIV infections that could be averted in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia using prioritisation based on age, sex, geography, and markers of risk.Methods and findingsWe analysed the latest nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia to determine the proportion of adults who report behavioural markers of risk for HIV infection. We used prevalence ratios (PRs) to quantify the association of these factors with HIV status. Using a multiplier method, we combined these proportions with the number of new HIV infections by district, derived from district-level modelled HIV estimates. Based on these numbers, different scenarios were analysed for the minimum number of person-years on PrEP needed to prevent 1 HIV infection (NNP).An estimated total of 38,000, 108,000, and 46,000 new infections occurred in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia in 2016, corresponding with incidence rates of 0.43, 0.63, and 0.57 per 100 person-years. In these countries, 9%–20% of new infections occurred among people with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months and 40%–42% among people with either an STI or a non-regular sexual partner (NP) in the past 12 months (STINP). The models estimate that around 50% of new infections occurred in districts with incidence rates ≥1.0% in Mozambique and Zambia and ≥0.5% in Malawi. In Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, 35.1%, 21.9%, and 12.5% of the population live in these high-incidence districts. In the most parsimonious scenario, if women aged 15–34 years and men 20–34 years with an STI in the past 12 months living in high-incidence districts were to take PrEP, it would take a minimum of 65.8 person-years on PrEP to avert 1 HIV infection per year in Malawi, 35.2 in Mozambique, and 16.4 in Zambia. Our findings suggest that 3,300, 5,200, and 1,700 new infections could be averted per year in the 3 countries, respectively. Limitations of our study are that these values are based on modelled estimates of HIV incidence and self-reported behavioural risk factors from national surveys.ConclusionsA large proportion of new HIV infections in these 3 African countries were estimated to occur among people who had either an STI or an NP in the past year, providing a straightforward means to set PrEP targets. Greater prioritisation of PrEP by district, sex, age, and behavioural risk factors resulted in lower NNPs thereby increasing PrEP cost-effectiveness, but also diminished the overall impact on reducing new infections

Dominik Stelzle and co-workers estimate impact of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis use on HIV infections in 3 African countries.     

Five myths about AIDS that have misdirected research and treatment

A number of widely repeated and factually incorrect myths have pervaded the AIDS research literature, misdirecting research and treatment. Five of the most outstanding are: 1) that all risk groups develop AIDS at the same rate following HIV infection; 2) that there are no true seroreversions following HIV infection; 3) that antibody is protective against HIV infection; 4) that the only way to treat AIDS effectively is through retroviral therapies; and 5) that since HIV is so highly correlated with AIDS incidence, it must be the sole necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS. A huge body of research, reviewed in this paper, demonstrates the falsity of these myths. 1) The average number of years between HIV infection and AIDS is greater than 20 years for mild hemophiliacs, 14 years for transfussion severe hemophiliacs, 10 years for old severe hemophiliacs, 10 years for homosexual men, 6 years for transfusion patients of all ages, 2 years for transplant patients, and 6 months for perinatally infected infants. These differences can only be explained in terms of risk-group associated cofactors. 2) Seroreversions are common. Between 10 and 20 percent of HIV-seronegative people in high risk groups have T-cell immunity to HIV, and may have had one or more verified positive HIV antibody tests in the past. 3) Antibody, far from being protective against HIV, appears to be highly diagnostic of loss of immune regulation of HIV, and some evidence of antibody-enhancement of infection exists. 4) Non-retroviral treatments of HIV infection, including safer sex practices, elimination of drug use, high nutrient diets, and limited reexposure to HIV and its cofactors have proven to be effective means of preventing or delaying onset of AIDS. 5) Many immunosuppressive factors, including drug use, multiple concurrent infections, and exposure to alloantigens, are as highly correlated with AIDS risk groups as HIV. These data are more consistent with AIDS being a multifactorial or synergistic disease than a monofactorial one.     

Emerging Patterns of HIV Infection and Control in the Philippines

A total of 50 carriers of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), 46 of them female prostitutes, have been detected through seroprevalence surveys by the Department of Health, Manila. Infection rates are highest in two small cities near foreign military bases and in the tourist district of MetroManila. Nine patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) who contracted the disease outside the country have been reported, with opportunistic infections being the major clinical feature. Public information measures heavily utilize the mass media, and there is anecdotal evidence that awareness of the disease among the urban population is increasing. The National AIDS Committee foresees that a large proportion of the cases seen in the Philippines over the next few years will be returning nationals who were infected abroad.     

HIV viral sequences in seronegative people at risk detected by in situ hybridisation and polymerase chain reaction.

A study was conducted to assess the occurrence of latent infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among seronegative people at high risk of infection. The presence of HIV genomes was analysed by molecular techniques in two seronegative children born to mothers infected with HIV and in three regular sexual partners of seropositive drug addicts. The adults were selected from a seronegative cohort at high risk of infection because of their sexual contacts and the children selected because of impaired growth. HIV retroviral sequences were detected in four of the five subjects directly at the cellular level by in situ hybridisation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. HIV genomic sequences were confirmed by in vitro amplification of viral DNA with the polymerase chain reaction technique. The existence of a latent viral infection state in these seronegative subjects indicates the unreliability of standard serological analysis in people who have been in regular contact with infected patients.     

The control of viral diseases in the developing countries with the use of existing vaccines]

In developing countries, every year about 70 million measles cases occur with 1.5 million deaths, over 200,000 children contract paralytic poliomyelitis, 50 million people get infected with viral B hepatitis causing over 1 million deaths, and several thousand people perish because of yellow fever according to WHO data. At the present time, there are 12 vaccines against viruses: vaccines against German measles and mumps in addition to the above. The universal immunization program (UIP) of WHO targets measles and polio. In 1989, a WHO resolution envisioned a 90% immunization coverage by the year 2000. Measles vaccination is recommended for children aged 9-23 months, since most children have maternal antibodies during the first 3-13 months of age. The Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine provided seroconversion of 92, 96, and 98% for 18 months vs. the 66, 76, and 91% rate of the Schwarz vaccine. In the US, measles incidence increased from 1497 cases in 1983 to 6382 cases in 1988 to over 14,000 cases in 1989, prompting second vaccination in children of school age. The highest incidence of polio was registered in Southeast Asia, although it declined from 1 case/100,000 population in 1975 to .5/100,000 in 1988. Oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV) provides protection: there is only 1 case/2.5 million vaccinations. Hepatitis B has infected over 2 billion people. About 300 million are carriers, with a prevalence of 20% in African, Asian, and Pacific region populations. Plasmatic and bioengineered recombinant vaccine type have been used in 30 million people. The first dose is given postnatally, the second at 1-2 months of age, and the 3rd at 1 year of age. Yellow fever vaccine was 50 years old in 1988, yet during 1986-1988 there were 5395 cases with 3172 deaths in Africa and South America. Vaccination provides 90-95% seroconversion, and periodic follow-up vaccinations under UIP could eradicate these infections and their etiologic agents.     

Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART)--yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.     

Polymyalgia rheumatica/giant cell arteritis in a Cambridge general practice.

The aim of this study was to establish the incidence and prevalence of polymyalgia rheumatica/giant cell arteritis in general practice. Patients with this disorder, whether previously diagnosed or not, were ascertained by using a questionnaire administered by interview, and all received full clinical and laboratory assessment. A total of 579 patients aged 65 and over was seen, and 19 (33/1000) had been diagnosed or developed symptoms within the previous eight years. Thus the calculated annual incidence in those aged 65 and over was about 4/1000. The figures from this first large scale study of polymyalgia rheumatica/giant cell arteritis in general practice are much higher than those from studies carried out in hospital. The questionnaire was effective in both identifying known cases of polymyalgia rheumatica/giant cell arteritis and detecting new cases. As this is a treatable disorder, it is important that doctors become aware of how common it is in elderly people.