Age-specific demography in Plantago: uncovering age-dependent mortality in a natural population

Accurate measures of age-dependent mortality are critical to life-history analysis and measures of fitness, yet these measures are difficult to obtain in natural populations. Age-dependent mortality patterns can be obscured not only by seasonal variation in environmental conditions and reproduction but also by changes in the heterogeneity among individuals in the population over time due to selection. This study of Plantago lanceolata uses longitudinal data from a field study with a large number of individuals to develop a model to estimate the shape of the baseline hazard function that represents the age-dependent risk of mortality. The model developed here uses both constant (genetics, spatial location) and time-varying (temperature, rainfall, reproduction, size) covariates not only to estimate the underlying mortality pattern but also to demonstrate that the risk of mortality associated with fitness components can change with time/age. Moreover, this analysis suggests that increasing size after reproductive maturity may allow this plant species to escape from demographic senescence.     

Age-structured population growth rates in constant and variable environments: a near equilibrium approach

General measures summarizing the shapes of mortality and fecundity schedules are proposed. These measures are derived from moments of probability distributions related to mortality and fecundity schedules. Like moments, these measures form infinite sequences, but the first terms of these sequences are of particular value in approximating the long-term growth rate of an age- structured population that is growing slowly. Higher order terms are needed for approximating faster growing populations. These approximations offer a general nonparametric approach to the study of life-history evolution in both constant and variable environments. These techniques provide simple quantitative representations of the classical findings that, with fixed expected lifetime and net reproductive rate, type I mortality and early peak reproduction increase the absolute magnitude of the population growth rate, while type III mortality and delayed peak reproduction reduce this absolute magnitude.     

Body configuration as a predictor of mortality: comparison of five anthropometric measures in a 12 year follow-up of the Norwegian HUNT 2 study

Background

Distribution of body fat is more important than the amount of fat as a prognostic factor for life expectancy. Despite that, body mass index (BMI) still holds its status as the most used indicator of obesity in clinical work.

Methods

We assessed the association of five different anthropometric measures with mortality in general and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in particular using Cox proportional hazards models. Predictive properties were compared by computing integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement for two different prediction models. The measures studied were BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The study population was a prospective cohort of 62,223 Norwegians, age 20–79, followed up for mortality from 1995–1997 to the end of 2008 (mean follow-up 12.0 years) in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT 2).

Results

After adjusting for age, smoking and physical activity WHR and WHtR were found to be the strongest predictors of death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD mortality per increase in WHR of one standard deviation were 1.23 for men and 1.27 for women. For WHtR, these HRs were 1.24 for men and 1.23 for women. WHR offered the greatest integrated discrimination improvement to the prediction models studied, followed by WHtR and waist circumference. Hip circumference was in strong inverse association with mortality when adjusting for waist circumference. In all analyses, BMI had weaker association with mortality than three of the other four measures studied.

Conclusions

Our study adds further knowledge to the evidence that BMI is not the most appropriate measure of obesity in everyday clinical practice. WHR can reliably be measured and is as easy to calculate as BMI and is currently better documented than WHtR. It appears reasonable to recommend WHR as the primary measure of body composition and obesity.     

Excess Winter Mortality and Cold Temperatures in a Subtropical City,Guangzhou, China

Background

A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.

Methods

This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.

Results

The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (r_s=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95%CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95%CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.

Conclusion

Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.     

肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎的观察和护理

目的探讨肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎有效的观察方法和护理措施。方法对152例肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎的观察方法和护理措施进行回顾性分析。结果152例患者通过治疗及护理配合,治愈好转129例,死亡和自动出院23例。结论加强病情观察及实施有效的护理措施对促进患者康复、减少并发症,降低死亡率有重要的意义。     

Decreased mortality in a rat model of acute postinfarction heart failure

INTRODUCTION: The rat model of postinfarction heart failure (HF) has been very valuable in experimental cardiology. One disadvantage of this model is the very high acute mortality (70-80%). The aim of this study was to evaluate whether measures of intensive cardiac care applied to rats with acute myocardial infarction (MI) would reduce mortality. METHODS: Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing approximately 300 g were used. The animals were randomized into two groups. The intensive care group (IC) n=20 and conventional care group (CC) n=20. Experimental MI was induced by ligation of the left coronary artery producing large anterolateral MI. Animals in the IC group received isoflurane anesthesia and respiratory support postoperatively. The heart rhythm was monitored continuously and ventricular arrhythmias were treated with amiodarone and cardioversion. RESULTS: Mortality rate within 24 h was 4/20 (20%) in the IC group and 14/20 (70%) in the CC group (p<0.01). This represents a 3.5-fold reduction in acute mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: The use of amiodarone, respiratory support, isoflurane gas anesthesia, and electrical cardioversion of malignant arrhythmias are simple and effective measures to reduce mortality in rats with acute MI and HF. Improving survival rates increases cost-efficiency and ethical acceptance of this important experimental HF model.     

When Are We Most Vulnerable to Temperature Variations in a Day?

Daily temperature measures are commonly used when examining the association between temperature and mortality. In fact, temperature measures are available 24 hours a day and more detailed records may provide a better prediction of mortality compared to daily statistics. In this article, monthly stratified analysis modeling for mortality is conducted for the total population as well as the stratified elderly and younger subgroups. We identified the most significant time during the day that is associated with daily mortality. Surprisingly, the estimates of relative risk and magnitude of associations derived from the hourly temperature measures are similar or even stronger compared to those modeled by the daily statistics. This phenomenon remains true for lagged hourly temperature measures and the changing patterns of associations from January through December are revealed. In summary, people are the most vulnerable to temperature variations in the early morning around 5 am and the night time around 8 pm.     

Long-lasting insecticidal nets and the quest for malaria eradication: a mathematical modeling approach

Journal of Mathematical Biology - Recent dramatic declines in global malaria burden and mortality can be largely attributed to the large-scale deployment of insecticidal-based measures, namely...     

Assessment of whether in-hospital mortality for lobectomy is a useful standard for the quality of lung cancer surgery: retrospective study

Objectives To calculate in-hospital mortality after lobectomy for primary lung cancer in the United Kingdom; to explore the validity of using such data to assess the quality of UK thoracic surgeons; and to investigate the relation between in-hospital mortality and the number of procedures performed by surgeons.Design Retrospective study.Setting 36 departments dealing with thoracic surgery in UK hospitals.Participants 4028 patients who had undergone lobectomy for primary lung cancer by one of 102 surgeons.Main outcome measures In-hospital mortality in relation to individual surgeons, among all patients, and among each of five groups of patients defined by the number of operations performed by the surgeon.Results 103 patients (2.6%, 95% confidence interval 2.1% to 3.1%) died after surgery during the same hospital admission. No significant difference was found for in-hospital mortality between the five groups.Conclusions The number of procedures performed by a thoracic surgeon is not related to in-hospital mortality. Reporting data on in-hospital mortality after lobectomy for primary lung cancer is a poor tool for measuring a surgeon''s performance.     

Infant mortality decline in the late 19th and early 20th centuries: the role of market milk

Starting in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a precipitous decline in infant mortality was observed in the United States. Economic growth, improved nutrition, new sanitary measures, and advances in knowledge about infant care all contributed to this decline in infant mortality. Little is known, however, about how these individual factors affected disease-specific components of infant mortality over time. Systematic review of historical data suggests that cleaning the market milk supply was the single most important contributor to this decline in both diarrheal and overall infant mortality, and that this development played a far more important role than family income, other sanitary measures, or medical intervention.     

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups.     

Effect of current and midlife obesity status on mortality risk in the elderly

The primary purpose of this study was to determine whether current and midlife obesity status provide independent information on mortality risk in elderly persons. Analyses were based on 3,238 participants from the original Framingham Heart Study (FHS) cohort who lived to at least 70 years of age and who had BMI measures from when they were in their 50s. Within this group of 70-year olds, obesity based on current BMI was associated with a 21% increased risk of mortality (P = 0.019) whereas obesity in 70-year olds based on BMI measures obtained at around 50 years of age was associated with a 55% increased risk of mortality (P < 0.0001). Compared to 70-year olds who were nonobese at both 50 and 70 years of age, mortality risk was increased by 47% (P < 0.001) in those who were obese at both 50 and 70 years of age, increased by 56% (P < 0.001) in those who were obese at 50 years of age and nonobese at 70 years of age, and not significantly different (P > 0.9) in those who were nonobese at 50 years of age and obese at 70 years of age. In summary, in this cohort of elderly adults, midlife and current BMI had independent effects on mortality risk. Specifically, although mortality risk was increased in obese older adults who were already obese at midlife, this was not the case for newly obese older adults. Conversely, nonobese older adults who were obese at midlife had an increased mortality risk. These observations imply that it is imperative to consider an elderly adult's BMI in context of their BMI at midlife.     

The effect of nitrogen fertilization on the phenology of roots in a barrier island sand dune community

Little work has been done on the phenology of root growth and senescence largely due to methodological difficulties. The application of minirhizotron technology has enabled the tracking of individual roots through an entire growing season. As a result, direct measures of mortality, root growth, and an analysis of cohorts can be obtained. This study examined the belowground response of vegetation in a nutrient limited system to nitrogen addition. Small plots on a 36 year old dune on Hog Island, a barrier island in the Virginia Coast Reserve Long Term Ecological Research Site, were fertilized with nitrogen. Minirhizotron tubes were installed in each fertilized and control plot. Each tube was sampled monthly for nine months, March through October of 1992. Root length density increased throughout the growing season with the greatest root length density in the top 20 cm of the soil profile. The fertilized plots had greater root length densities (14.1 mm cm^-2) than the unfertilized plots (2.9 mm cm^-2). There was no significant depth × treatment interaction. Root mortality did not significantly change with fertilization. The largest loss of roots for a cohort occurred within the first month. The dune grassland community did not respond to fertilization with large changes in root distribution or increases in mortality in this study.     

Behaviour impairment in captured and released sablefish: ecological consequences and possible substitute measures for delayed discard mortality

Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria aged 1+ and 2+ years were towed for 4 h in a net, transferred to air for either 15 or 30 min, and then held in tanks for up to 35 days for observation of physical injury, immediate mortality, behaviour impairment, delayed mortality and total mortality. Behaviour was impaired for at least 3 h and returned to normal levels by 24 h after stress induction. Behaviour impairment was correlated with delayed mortality in 2+ year fish but not in 1+ year fish which showed greater variation in stress responses. The results of this study and a review of past discard and escapee studies showed that substitute measures for delayed mortality in the field should include physical injury and behaviour impairment. These two measures integrate the effects of capture‐related stressors which can produce and magnify physical and physiological injury, resulting in changes in fish condition and delayed mortality.     

长白山国家级自然保护区两栖类动物道路致死特征分析

为了解旅游道路交通导致的两栖类致死效应,于2007~2014年在环绕长白山国家级自然保护区的环长白山旅游公路(环区公路)、头道环区公路以及白山公路分别选取1条样线,采用直接计数法统计了交通致死的两栖类种类、数量,以及致死个体处于交通路段的位置,共统计257次,累计调查样带总长2 441 km。道路致死两栖类种类有5种,累计致死个体数为7 910只,平均致死率为3.34只/km。最容易致死的两栖类动物是中国林蛙(Rana chensinensi)、东方铃蟾(Bombina orientalis)、中华蟾蜍(Bufo gargariza),这3种动物占到致死总数的96.36%;经Moses Test检验,白山公路的致死率、头道公路的致死率及环区公路致死率均与对照土路致死率差异显著(白山公路:n=67,P=0.000;头道公路:n=76,P=0.000;环区公路:n=164,P=0.000)。白山公路与头道公路两栖类致死率差异显著(n=93,P=0.010),白山公路与环区公路的两栖类道路致死率差异显著(n=181,P=0.000);头道公路与环区公路的两栖类道路致死率差异显著(n=190,P=0.000)。两栖类道路致死高峰期在8月份,其次较集中出现在4~6月的繁殖期。从公路年度致死变化来看,2007~2014年期间除了中国林蛙和中华蟾蜍致死率呈小幅波动外,其他种类致死率总体呈下降趋势,只有日本树蟾(Hyla japonica)年度致死率差异显著(Kruskal Wallis Test:χ2=18.031,df=7,P=0.012);不同月份中华蟾蜍(Pearson:R=0.939,n=7,P=0.002)、中国林蛙(Pearson:R=0.912,n=7,P=0.004)、日本树蟾(Pearson:R=0.904,n=7,P=0.005)致死率与交通量显著相关。本研究认为,两栖类的道路致死率与两栖类种群大小、种群密度、生活史及交通量等都存在显著相关性。     

Economic implication of diseases in goats in India with reference to implementation of a health plan calendar

The role of goats in the economy of the rural resource poor in India and economic losses due to mortality and morbidity at micro and macro level is important. Goats contribute more than 52% of households’ total income towards nutrition and food security of the family of goat keepers. The mortality and morbidity losses due to diseases in goats were estimated at field level in Mathura district of Uttar Pradesh State, India. The mortality rates for small, medium and large categories of goat keeping were 32.8, 32.1 and 15.8% in kids and 31.2, 19.9 and 14.9% in adult goats, respectively. The losses due to diseases in goats scaled at national level were estimated at Rs. 11,720 million per annum. The adoption of prophylactic and preventive measures in goats could result in a net savings of Rs. 5144 million per annum to the economy of the country. The study demonstrates a need to use available technology to prevent diseases in goats.     

The role of predation in disease control: a comparison of selective and nonselective removal on prion disease dynamics in deer

Effective measures for controlling chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of cervids, remain elusive. We review theoretic relationships between predation and host-parasite dynamics and describe a mathematical model to evaluate the potential influence of random removal through harvest or culling and selective predation by wolves (Canis lupus) upon CWD dynamics in deer (Odocoileus spp.) populations. Imposing nonselective mortality representing a 15% annual harvest or cull 51 yr after CWD introduction lowered both deer population size and steady state CWD. Selective (4×) mortality at the same 15% predation rate caused a more modest reduction in deer population size accompanied by a relatively rapid decline in CWD prevalence and elimination of the disease from a closed population. The impacts of selective predation on epidemic dynamics were sensitive to assumptions on parameter estimates; however, within expected ranges, the results of selective predation were consistent and robust. We suggest that as CWD distribution and wolf range overlap in the future, wolf predation may suppress disease emergence or limit prevalence.     

Extrinsic Mortality Effects on Reproductive Strategies in a Caribbean Community

Extrinsic mortality is a key influence on organisms’ life history strategies, especially on age at maturity. This historical longitudinal study of 125 women in rural Domenica examines effects of extrinsic mortality on human age at maturity and pace of reproduction. Extrinsic mortality is indicated by local population infant mortality rates during infancy and at maturity between the years 1925 and 2000. Extrinsic mortality shows effects on age at first birth and pace of reproduction among these women. Parish death records show huge historical variation in age-specific mortality rates. The infant mortality rate (IMR) in the early 1920s was low, increased dramatically beginning in 1929, and reached a maximum in the 1950s, at which point IMR declined steadily to its present low rate. The mortality rate early in life showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. Women who experienced conditions of low IMR early in life reproduced relatively late in life. Those born into moderately high levels of infant mortality tended to reproduce earlier than those born at low levels. At very high infant mortality levels early in life, women went on to delay reproduction until relatively late, possibly as a result of somatic depletion and energetic stress associated with the conditions that lead to high IMR. Population mortality rates at age of maturity also showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. The pace of reproduction, estimated as number of surviving offspring controlled for maternal age, showed a similar quadratic effect. There were complex interactions between population mortality rates in infancy and at maturity. When extrinsic mortality was high during infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had little effect on timing of first birth. When extrinsic mortality was low to moderate in infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had significant effects on adult reproduction. I speculate that these effects are mediated through development of personality facets associated with reproduction.     

Evaluating local adaptation of a complex phenotype: reciprocal tests of pigmy rattlesnake venoms on treefrog prey

Theory predicts that predator–prey interactions can generate reciprocal selection pressures on species pairs, which can result in local adaptation, yet the presence and pattern of local adaptation is poorly studied in vertebrate predator–prey systems. Here, we used a reciprocal common garden (laboratory) experimental design involving comparisons between local and foreign populations to determine if local adaptation was present between a generalist predator—the pigmy rattlesnake (Sistrurus miliarius)—and a co-occurring prey—the squirrel treefrog (Hyla squirella). We conducted toxicity trials using snake venom from two populations separated by 340 km tested on prey from sympatric and allopatric populations, resulting in data from four venom origin–frog origin combinations. We assessed venom effectiveness using two measures (frog mortality at 24 h and time to frog death) and then used regression analyses to look for a signal of local adaptation with either measure. We found evidence for local adaptation for one measure (time to death), but not the other (frog mortality). We argue that in this system, the time to death of a prey item is a more ecologically relevant measure of venom effectiveness than is frog mortality at 24 h. Our results document an example of local adaptation between two interacting vertebrates using a whole-organism assay and a local versus foreign criteria and provide evidence that population-level variation in snake venom is adaptive.     

A comparison of adiposity measures as predictors of all-cause mortality: the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Objective: Our goal was to examine five different measures of adiposity as predictors of all‐cause mortality. Research Methods and Procedures: Subjects were 16,969 men and 24,344 women enrolled between 1990 and 1994 in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (27 to 75 years of age). There were 2822 deaths over a median follow‐up period of 11 years. BMI, waist circumference, and waist‐to‐hip ratio were obtained from direct anthropometric measurements. Fat mass and percentage fat were estimated by bioelectric impedance analysis. Results: Comparing the top quintile with the second quintile, for men there was an increased risk of between 20% and 30% for all‐cause mortality associated with each of the anthropometric measures. For women, there was an increased risk of 30% (95% confidence interval for hazard ratio, 1.1–1.6) observed for waist circumference and 50% (1.2–1.8) for waist‐to‐hip ratio, but little or no increased risk for BMI, fat mass, and percentage fat. Waist‐to‐hip ratio was positively and monotonically associated with all‐cause mortality for both men and women. There was a linear association between waist circumference and all‐cause mortality for men, whereas a U‐shaped association was observed for women. Discussion: Measures of central adiposity were better predictors of mortality in women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study compared with measures of overall adiposity. We recommend measuring waist and hip circumferences in population studies investigating the risk of all‐cause mortality associated with obesity. The use of additional measures such as bioelectric impedance is not justified for this outcome.