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1.
1. To quantify the interactions between density-dependent, population regulation and density-independent limitation, we studied the time-series dynamics of an experimental laboratory insect microcosm system in which both environmental noise and resource limitation were manipulated. 2. A hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach is presented through which it is feasible to capture all sources of uncertainty, including observation error to accurately quantify the density dependence operating on the dynamics. 3. The regulatory processes underpinning the dynamics of two different bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis) are principally determined by environmental conditions, with fluctuations in abundance explained in terms of changes in overcompensatory dynamics and stochastic processes. 4. A general, stochastic population model is developed to explore the link between abundance fluctuations and the interaction between density dependence and noise. Taking account of time-lags in population regulation can substantially increase predicted population fluctuations resulting from underlying noise processes.  相似文献   

2.
Factors controlling brown trout Salmo trutta recruitment in Mediterranean areas are largely unknown, despite the relevance this may have for fisheries management. The effect of hydrological variability on survival of young brown trout was studied during seven consecutive years in five resident populations from the southern range of the species distribution. Recruit density at the end of summer varied markedly among year-classes and rivers during the study period. Previous work showed that egg density the previous fall did not account for more than 50% of the observed variation in recruitment density. Thus, we expected that climatic patterns, as determinants of discharge and water temperature, would play a role in the control of young trout abundance. We tested this by analyzing the effects of flow variation and predictability on young trout survival during the spawning to emergence and the summer drought periods. Both hatching and emergence times and length of hatching and emergence periods were similar between years within each river but varied considerably among populations, due to differences in water temperature. Interannual variation in flow attributes during spawning to emergence and summer drought affected juvenile survival in all populations, once the effect of endogenous factors was removed. Survival rate was significantly related to the timing, magnitude and duration of extreme water conditions, and to the rate of change in discharge during hatching and emergence times in most rivers. The magnitude and duration of low flows during summer drought appeared to be a critical factor for survival of young trout. Our findings suggest that density-independent factors, i.e., hydrological variability, play a central role in the population dynamics of brown trout in populations from low-latitude range margins. Reported effects of hydrologic attributes on trout survival are likely to be increasingly important if, as predicted, climate change leads to greater extremes and variability of flow regimes.  相似文献   

3.
1. The relative importance of density‐dependent and density‐independent processes in explaining fluctuations in natural populations has been widely debated. In particular, the importance of larval supply and whether it may control the type of regulatory processes a population experiences has proved contentious. 2. Using surveys and field experiments conducted in streams in Canterbury, New Zealand, we investigated how variation in the survival of non‐migratory Galaxias vulgaris fry was affected by density‐dependent and density‐independent processes and how this variation influenced recruitment dynamics. 3. Fry populations with high settlement densities experienced a 70–80% reduction in population size from density‐related mortality during the first fourteen days after peak settlement but thereafter the influence of density‐dependent processes on fry was weak. The impact of environmental conditions on fry populations was dependent on fry size and the magnitude of the perturbation, such that flooding effects on fry survival were most severe when fry were small. 4. In streams not affected by flooding, the size and density of introduced trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) were the most significant factors determining the abundance of eventual recruits. A field experiment manipulating brown trout access to fry populations revealed that trout as small as 110 mm may be capable of greatly reducing and possibly preventing galaxiid recruitment. 5. Overall, the results indicated density‐dependent population regulation was only possible at sites with high native fish densities because trout were likely to be suppressing the number of potential recruits at sites with low native fish numbers. Whilst density‐dependent processes had a strong effect on fry survival following the period of peak fry abundance, density‐independent processes associated with flow and predatory trout influences on fry survival largely determined recruitment variability among galaxiid populations. Focusing conservation efforts on improving habitat to increase fry retention and reducing the impacts of trout on galaxiids would ensure more native fish populations reached their potential abundance.  相似文献   

4.
  1. Determining the factors driving population dynamics of stream salmonids across broad landscapes is important for understanding stream ecosystem functioning and for the management and conservation of the populations of such fish. A few studies have described the determinants of the early life history of salmonids across catchments, but none of them have examined how this spatial variation develops temporally.
  2. We hypothesised that: (1) spatiotemporal dynamics of young-of-the-year (YoY) trout populations vary within the catchment, with loss rates (emigration plus mortality) being higher in lower elevation, downstream reaches than in higher elevation, upstream ones; and (2) loss rate would be density dependent, leading to reduced intra- and inter-cohort competition and supporting establishment of resident populations.
  3. We tested the first hypothesis by examining relationships between geomorphic characteristics of spawning streams and temporal dynamics of YoY brown trout density, loss rate and biological traits through an austral summer across the catchment of New Zealand's fourth-longest river, the Taieri River. To test the second hypothesis, we examined whether initial YoY density in spring and other biotic determinants affected loss rate and cohort structure dynamics, resulting in density-dependent self-thinning of YoY fish to avoid resource limitation.
  4. Spring YoY density and subsequent loss rate was higher in low elevation sites, corresponding to stream accessibility to migratory spawners. These significant correlations of YoY density and related biotic variables with elevation disappeared later in the season, indicating that regardless of their origin, brown trout YoY tend to form stream resident populations with multicohort structure and densities low enough to limit intraspecific competition.
  5. Our findings provide evidence that geomorphological features of the landscape affect temporal dynamics of YoY trout populations driven by density-dependent self-regulatory mechanisms that can control the abundance of growing fish.
  相似文献   

5.
Salmonid population dynamics: stability under weak density dependence?   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
S Einum 《Oikos》2005,110(3):630-633
Lobón-Cerviá and Rincón analysed the dynamics of a stream-resident brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) population using stock-recruitment relationships, and reported no indication of density dependence but strong effects of water discharge on juvenile production. The authors concluded to have demonstrated an example of a population where "… endogenous density-dependent mechanisms played, at most, a limited role" for population dynamics (p. 643), and that the population persists with "… little or no operation of endogenous regulatory mechanisms" (p. 641). Further, they "… question the extent to which generalizations claiming that most natural animal populations should be subject to the operation of regulatory feedback mechanisms hold for fish populations" (p. 644). If these conclusions were accurate, it should radically alter our view of fish population dynamics and how such populations should be managed. However, here I argue that these conclusions should be treated cautiously, and suggest alternative interpretations which are more consistent with theory and previous empirical research. Furthermore, using the study of Lobón-Cerviá and Rincón as an illustrative example, I suggest that additional insight into population dynamics may be attained by shifting the focus away from the conventional absolute distinction between density-dependent and -independent factors towards studies that address the potential for interactions between external forces and density.  相似文献   

6.
Debate on the control of population dynamics in reef fishes has centred on whether patterns in abundance are determined by the supply of planktonic recruits, or by post-recruitment processes. Recruitment limitation implies little or no regulation of the reef-associated population, and is supported by several experimental studies that failed to detect density dependence. Previous manipulations of population density have, however, focused on juveniles, and there have been no tests for density-dependent interactions among adult reef fishes. I tested for population regulation in Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, a small, short-lived goby that is common in the Caribbean. Adult density was manipulated on artificial reefs and adults were also monitored on reefs where they varied in density naturally. Survival of adult gobies showed a strong inverse relationship with their initial density across a realistic range of densities. Individually marked gobies, however, grew at similar rates across all densities, suggesting that density-dependent survival was not associated with depressed growth, and so may result from predation or parasitism rather than from food shortage. Like adult survival, the accumulation of new recruits on reefs was also much lower at high adult densities than at low densities. Suppression of recruitment by adults may occur because adults cause either reduced larval settlement or reduced early post-settlement survival. In summary, this study has documented a previously unrecorded regulatory mechanism for reef fish populations (density-dependent adult mortality) and provided a particularly strong example of a well-established mechanism (density-dependent recruitment). In combination, these two compensatory mechanisms have the potential to strongly regulate the abundance of this species, and rule out the control of abundance by the supply of recruits.  相似文献   

7.
Bowler DE  Benton TG 《Oecologia》2011,166(1):111-119
Dispersal can play an important role in both the local and regional dynamics of populations. Empirical studies have shown that the proportion of individuals dispersing is often density dependent, which may have implications for the effect of dispersal on populations. In this study, we manipulate the dispersal strategy of adults within two-patch laboratory populations of soil mites and compare the consequences of fixed (density-independent) and density-dependent dispersal in environments of constant and temporally varying resource availability. Effects of dispersal on population dynamics were dependent on the presence of environmental variation. Both dispersal strategies tended to spatially homogenize the population abundance of adults in a variable environment. However, the effect of environmental variation on mean adult abundance was greater with density-dependent dispersal than with fixed dispersal. Adult dispersal did not affect juvenile or egg abundance. This study demonstrates the potential significance of density-dependent dispersal for population dynamics, but emphasizes the role of the environmental context.  相似文献   

8.
THE NATURAL CONTROL OF POPULATIONS OF BUTTERFLIES AND MOTHS   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
1. Life-table data for 14 species of Lepidoptera are analysed by the k -factor technique of Varley & Gradwell (1960). Two factors are shown to be of particular importance in determining fluctuations in abundance from one generation to the next. These key factors are predators and the failure of females to lay their full complement of eggs.
2. Data from 24 studies are reviewed to identify any density-dependent factors that would be capable of regulating the populations about an equilibrium density. In eight studies no density-dependent relationships could be identified, and in a further 13 the only density dependence demonstrated was due to intraspecific competition for resources. It is argued that competition is incapable of regulating populations at low density. In the other three studies, natural enemies are thought to be acting in a density-dependent manner, but their ability to regulate the populations is questioned.
3. The frequency of over-population and of extinction is reviewed and both appear to occur frequently in Lepidoptera. This, coupled with the failure of most studies to demonstrate the existence of density-dependent processes capable of regulating populations, leads the author to reject the model of regulation about an equilibrium density in favour of a model of population limitation by a ceiling set by resources.
4. Fluctuations in resource availability may be important in determining variations in the abundance of many Lepidoptera, but at present too few ecologists have quantified the carrying capacity of habitats occupied by the species they study to generalize about this.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract Knowledge of processes that drive the local population dynamics of coral-reef fishes is important for managing reef fisheries, and for using these species as models for understanding the ecology of demersal marine fishes in general. However, the reef-fish literature is replete with poorly defined concepts and vague hypotheses regarding the issue of population dynamics. Dichotomous arguments, such as whether or not recruitment drives population dynamics, are misdirected because they fail to incorporate several important concepts. First, changes in local population size are driven by four demographic rates (birth, death, immigration and emigration), all of which must be studied to understand population dynamics. Second, all populations that persist do so because at least one of these demographic rates operates in a density-dependent way that is both sufficiently strong and appropriately time-lagged. Therefore, identifying the source(s) of direct density dependence is critical for understanding the limits to variation in population size (i.e. population regulation). Third, regulation does not imply a simple point equilibrium in population size; density dependence in populations of reef fishes is bound to lie within a field of stochastic variation, and thus be difficult to detect. Since its formal origin in 1981, the ‘recruitment limitation’ hypothesis for explaining local population dynamics in reef fishes has undergone ambiguous changes in definition that threaten its usefulness. ‘Recruitment, ‘originally defined as the appearance of newly settled fish on a reef, more recently is often measured months after settlement, thus confounding pre- and post-settlement processes. ‘Limitation, ‘ which originally referred to recruitment being so low as to preclude local populations from reaching densities where resources were limiting, is more recently defined as an absence of any form of density dependence after settlement. The most effective means of testing whether post-settlement mortality is in fact density-independent is to examine patterns of mortality directly, rather than indirectly by interpreting the shape of the relationship between initial recruit density and subsequent adult density within a cohort (the recruit-adult function). Understanding the population dynamics of coral-reef fishes will require a more equitable focus on all four demographic rates, be they density dependent or not, as well as greater attention to identifying sources of density dependence. Such a pluralistic focus necessitates integrated studies of both pre- and post-settlement processes conducted at multiple spatial and temporal scales. For example, recent evidence suggests that density-dependent pre-dation on new recruits that have settled among reefs at different densities may prove to be an important source of local population regulation, especially via the aggregative response of transient piscivores.  相似文献   

10.
It is widely believed that environmental variability is the main cause for fluctuations in commercially exploited small pelagic fish populations around the world. Nevertheless, density-dependent factors also can drive population dynamics. In this paper, we analyzed thirteen years of a relative abundance index of two clupeoids fish populations coexisting in the central-south area off Chile, namely the common sardine, Strangomera bentincki, and anchovy, Engraulis ringens. We applied the classical diagnostic tools of time series analysis to the observed time-series. Also, the realized per capita population growth rate was studied with the aim of detecting the feedback structure that is characterizing the population dynamics of the two species. The analysis suggests that population fluctuations of the two species have an important density-dependent component, displaying first-order (direct density-dependent) and second-order (delayed density-dependent) simultaneously. The density-dependent component explained 70.5 and 55.6 % of the realized per capita population growth rate of common sardine and anchovy, respectively. The deterministic skeleton model showed an asymptotic convergence to equilibrium density. In presence of a stochastic environment, fluctuations were reproduced for the species showing a component of fluctuation with a period of 4 year. The intrinsic dynamics of each species is typical of interacting species resulting from trophic interactions. It is postulated that the second-order dynamics of S. bentincki and E. ringens in central-south Chile, may be the result from interactions with a specialist predator (the fishing fleet), interacting with exogenous environmental factors.  相似文献   

11.
 Following predictions from climatic general circulation models, the effects of perturbations in global climate are expected to be most pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Elaborating on a recently developed plant–herbivore–climate model, we explore statistically how different winter climate regimes and density-dependent processes during the past century have affected population dynamics of two arctic ungulate species. Our analyses were performed on the dynamics of six muskox and six caribou populations. In muskoxen, variation in winter climate, mediated through the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explained up to 24% of the variation in interannual abundance, whereas in caribou up to 16% was explained by the NAO. Muskoxen responded negatively following warm and snowy winters, whereas caribou responded negatively to dry winters. Direct and delayed density dependence was recorded in most populations and explained up to 32% and 90% of variations in abundance of muskoxen and caribou, respectively. Received: November 19, 2001 / Accepted: May 28, 2002  相似文献   

12.
1. In demographically open marine systems, the extent to which density-dependent processes in the benthic adult phase are required for population persistence is unclear. At one extreme, represented by the recruitment limitation hypothesis, larval supply may be insufficient for the total population size to reach a carrying capacity and density-independent mortality predominates. At the opposite extreme, populations are saturated and density-dependent mortality is sufficiently strong to reshape patterns established at settlement. 2. We examined temporal variation in the way density-independent and density-dependent mortality interact in a typical sessile marine benthic invertebrate, the acorn barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), over a 2-year period. 3. Recruitment was manipulated at two high recruitment sites in north Wales, UK to produce recruit densities covering the range naturally found in this species. Following manipulation, fixed quadrats were monitored using digital photography and temporal changes in mortality and growth rate were examined. 4. Over a 2-year period there was a clear, spatially consistent, over-compensatory relationship between the density of recruits and adult abundance indicating strong density-dependent mortality. The strength of density dependence intensified with increasing recruitment. 5. Density-dependent mortality did not operate consistently over the study period. It only operated in the early part of the benthic phase, but the pattern of adult abundance generated was maintained throughout the whole 2-year period. Thus, early life-history processes dictated adult population abundance and dynamics. 6. Examination of the natural recruitment regime in the area of study indicated that both positive and negative effects of recruitment will occur over scales varying from kilometres to metres.  相似文献   

13.
It is frequently assumed that population fluctuations are largely independent within a community of trophically‐similar species, but this need not be so. If population fluctuations are partly synchronized or concordant, this will produce interannual variability in the community's aggregate abundance and generate temporal variance in ecosystem structure. We studied the community of Lepidoptera inhabiting northern hardwood forests in New Hampshire, USA, to evaluate the hypothesis that fluctuations in consumer communities can arise from concordant dynamics of constituent populations. Interannual comparisons of moth abundances for >75 species sampled at three sites over four years revealed that concordant dynamics contribute strongly to interannual variability in the abundance of consumers. A conspicuous decline in community abundance from 2004 to 2005 was the result of predominantly negative population growth rates of the component species, while an increase in community abundance from 2006 to 2007 was the result of predominantly positive population growth rates. Population dynamics most strongly linked species that feed in the early season (perhaps due to shared responses to climatic effects), but not species that might share natural enemies or host plants. The observed concordant dynamics introduced conspicuous temporal variation in the abundance of primary consumers relative to plants and secondary consumers, thereby altering the forest's trophic structure. Such variance in the aggregate abundance of forest primary consumers could generate time‐lagged fluctuations in abundances of secondary consumers and will generally have important consequences for ecosystem properties and processes that are nonlinear functions of consumer abundance, such as plant community structure and nutrient cycling.  相似文献   

14.
Population dynamics of the brown planthopper (BPH),Nilaparvata lugens Stål, were investigated in paddy fields in the coastal lowland of West Java, Indonesia, where rice is cultivated twice a year, in the wet and dry cropping seasons. Distinct differences in the basic features of population dynamics were detected between the two rice cropping seasons: (1) In the wet season, BPH populations multiplied rapidly in the period from initial to peak generation, reaching quite often the destructive level despite the low density of initial immigrants. However, in the dry season, the population growth rate and the peak population density were much lower than those in the wet season. The abundance of natural enemies such as arthropod predators played a major role in determining such a difference in seasonal population development. (2) The density at the peak generation or the occurrence of outbreaks in each field was predictable in the wet season with fairly high accuracy on the basis of the density at the initial or previous seasonal generations. In the dry season, however, the rate of population growth and the peak population density widely varied among the fields depending on the water status in each field. (3) Density-dependent processes to regulate the population density were detected in both cropping seasons. In the wet season, the regulatory processes were only detected in such high densities as cause the considerable deterioration of host plants, which suggested that the processes were largely attributable to intra-specific competition. In the dry season, however, the regulatory processes operated at a much lower density in the earlier stages of the crops. The results of an analysis of adult longevity or residence period suggested that the density-dependent dispersal of macropterous adults played an important role in stabilizing the population fluctuation among the fields in the early dry season.  相似文献   

15.
Stepping-stone models for the ecological dynamics of metapopulations are often used to address general questions about the effects of spatial structure on the nature and complexity of population fluctuations. Such models describe an ensemble of local and spatially isolated habitat patches that are connected through dispersal. Reproduction and hence the dynamics in a given local population depend on the density of that local population, and a fraction of every local population disperses to neighboring patches. In such models, interesting dynamic phenomena, e.g. the persistence of locally unstable predator-prey interactions, are only observed if the local dynamics in an isolated patch exhibit non-equilibrium behavior. Therefore, the scope of these models is limited. Here we extend these models by making the biologically plausible assumption that reproductive success in a given local habitat not only depends on the density of the local population living in that habitat, but also on the densities of neighboring local populations. This would occur if competition for resources occurs between neighboring populations, e.g. due to foraging in neighboring habitats. With this assumption of quasi-local competition the dynamics of the model change completely. The main difference is that even if the dynamics of the local populations have a stable equilibrium in isolation, the spatially uniform equilibrium in which all local populations are at their carrying capacity becomes unstable if the strength of quasi-local competition reaches a critical level, which can be calculated analytically. In this case the metapopulation reaches a new stable state, which is, however, not spatially uniform anymore and instead results in an irregular spatial pattern of local population abundance. For large metapopulations, a huge number of different, spatially non-uniform equilibrium states coexist as attractors of the metapopulation dynamics, so that the final state of the system depends critically on the initial conditions. The existence of a large number of attractors has important consequences when environmental noise is introduced into the model. Then the metapopulation performs a random walk in the space of all attractors. This leads to large and complicated population fluctuations whose power spectrum obeys a red-shifted power law. Our theory reiterates the potential importance of spatial structure for ecological processes and proposes new mechanisms for the emergence of non-uniform spatial patterns of abundance and for the persistence of complicated temporal population fluctuations.  相似文献   

16.
Synopsis We examined the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution, abundance, and condition of salmonid fishes along a stream gradient. We observed a longitudinal change in fish distribution with native cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki utah, and introduced brown trout, Salmo trutta, demonstrating a distinct pattern of allopatry. Cutthroat trout dominated high elevation reaches, while reaches at lower elevations were dominated by brown trout. A transition zone between these populations was associated with lower total trout abundance, consistent changes in temperature and discharge, and differences in dietary preference. Variation in cutthroat trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of brown trout and diel temperature, whereas variation in brown trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of cutthroat trout and discharge. These results suggest the potential for condition-mediated competition between the two species. The results from our study can aid biologists in prioritizing conservation activities and in developing robust management strategies for cutthroat trout.  相似文献   

17.
Dynamics of a harvested moose population in a variable environment   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7  
1. Population size, calves per female, female mean age and adult sex ratio of a moose ( Alces alces ) population in Vefsn, northern Norway were reconstructed from 1967 to 1993 using cohort analysis and catch-at-age data from 96% (6752) of all individuals harvested.
2. The dynamics of the population were influenced mainly by density-dependent harvesting, stochastic variation in climate and intrinsic variation in the age-structure of the female segment of the population.
3. A time delay in the assignment of hunting permits in relation to population size increased fluctuations in population size.
4. Selective harvesting of calves and yearlings increased the mean age of adult females in the population, and, because fecundity in moose is strongly age-specific, the number of calves per female concordantly increased. However, after years with high recruitment, the adult mean age decreased as large cohorts entered the adult age-groups. This age-structure effect generated cycles in the rate of recruitment to the population and fluctuations introduced time-lags in the population dynamics.
5. An inverse relationship between recruitment rate and population density, mediated by a density-dependent decrease in female body condition, could potentially have constituted a regulatory mechanism in the dynamics of the population, but this effect was counteracted by a density-dependent increase in the mean age of adult females.
6. Stochastic variation in winter snow depth and summer temperature had delayed effects on recruitment rate and in turn population growth rate, apparently through effects on female body condition before conception.  相似文献   

18.
The population dynamics of two grasshoppers (Melanoplus femurrubrum and M. sanguinipes) were studied using experimental microcosms over 8 years at a Palouse prairie site in Montana. Grasshopper density, survival and reproduction in the experimental populations responded in a density-dependent fashion to natural and experimental changes in food availability for all grasshopper developmental stages, both within and between all years. We observed that field populations of the grasshoppers at the site exhibited density, survival and reproductive responses similar to the experimental populations over the period of the study. Because we could not identify any differences between the field and microcosm environments or the grasshopper individuals in them, we contend that field populations were ultimately limited by food within and between years. Density-dependent food limitation occurred for all age categories over the entire summer, because food abundance declined relative to grasshopper food requirements over the summer. Food limitation occurred between years, because in years with the lowest food abundance, the populations produced more hatchlings for the next year than could be supported by the highest observed food abundance. Finally, the observed annual changes in food abundance were correlated with the annual variation in weather (rainfall and temperature), which indicated that the long established relationship between grasshopper densities and weather conditions does not imply population limitation by density-independent processes.  相似文献   

19.
From 1968–1984 (period I), a brown trout Salmo trutta , population in a 70-ha oligotrophic lake in central Norway was exploited using larger mesh gill-nets selectively removing the larger fish. From 1985–1994 (period II), intermediate sized fish were removed using smaller-mesh sizes gill-nets. Fishing mortality and CPUE were correlated positively with effort and numbers of fish >3 years old for period II. The gill-net catchability was correlated negatively with spawner biomass and number of trout >3 years old. The significant positive correlation between natural mortality and stock biomass and spawning stock biomass indicated density-dependent mortality. The significant correlation between spawning stock and recruitment described by the Ricker model, indicated density-dependent recruitment of 1-year-old trout. The fishing regimes in the two periods affected the population dynamics and density differently. Selective removal of smaller fish permitted the larger fish to survive, and was beneficial in reducing fish density and maintaining stocks at low levels, consequently, achieving the expected increase in fish growth rates.  相似文献   

20.
A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983–1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95–99 % throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983–2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983–1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.  相似文献   

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