Climate‐based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate‐based species distribution models (S‐SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate‐based S‐SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate‐based S‐SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S‐SDMs were more accurate in plant‐rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate‐based S‐SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate‐based S‐SDMs.     

Butterfly community structure and landscape composition in agricultural landscapes of the central United States

Agricultural landscapes worldwide are under increased pressure to provide food, feed, fiber, and fuel for a growing human population. These demands are leading to changes in agricultural landscapes and subsequent declines in biodiversity. We used citizen science data from the North American Butterfly Association and remotely-sensed land cover data from the US Department of Agriculture to study relationships between agricultural landscape composition and butterfly community structure in the Midwestern US. Landscape-level butterfly species richness (based on rarefaction estimates) was highest in agricultural landscapes with relatively low amounts of cropland, relatively high amounts of woodland, and intermediate amounts of grassland and wetland. Rarefied richness generally declined with the dominance of any of these land cover types. Unlike other land cover types, urban development had a consistent negative effect on rarefied richness. Butterfly community structure (based on relative abundance) was also significantly related to the amount of cropland, woodland, grassland, and wetland in the landscape. The rarest butterfly species were associated with woodland-, grassland-, and wetland-dominated landscapes, likely due to their association with plant species occurring in savannahs, prairies, and marshes, respectively. Assuming that variation across space reflects changes over time, our results support conclusions from previous studies that removal of natural and seminatural habitats alters butterfly community structure and decreases species diversity in agricultural landscapes.     

A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

Environmental changes are driving rapid geographic shifts of suitable environmental conditions for species. These might survive by tracking those shifts, however successful responses will depend on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats (current and future) and on their connectivity. Most herptiles (i.e., amphibians and reptiles) have low dispersal abilities, and therefore herptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to environmental changes. Here we assessed the vulnerability of herptile species to future climate and land use changes in fragmented landscapes. We developed and tested a methodological approach combining the strengths of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and of functional connectivity analysis. First, using SDMs we forecasted current and future distributions of potential suitable areas as well as range dynamics for four herptile species in Portugal. SDM forecasts for 2050 were obtained under two contrasting emission scenarios, translated into moderate (low-emissions scenario) or large (high-emissions scenario) changes in climate and land use conditions. Then, we calculated and analysed functional connectivity from areas projected to lose environmental suitability towards areas keeping suitable conditions. Landscape matrix resistance and barrier effects of the national motorway network were incorporated as the main sources of fragmentation. Potential suitable area was projected to decrease under future conditions for most test species, with the high-emissions scenario amplifying the losses or gains. Spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity between potentially suitable areas signalled the most important locations for maintaining linkages and migration corridors, as well as potential conflicts due to overlaps with the current motorway network. By integrating SDM projections with functional connectivity analysis, we were able to assess and map the vulnerability of distinct herptile species to isolation or extinction under environmental change scenarios. Our framework provides valuable information, with fairly low data requirements, for optimizing biodiversity management and mitigation efforts, aiming to reduce the complex and often synergistic negative impacts of multiple environmental change drivers. Implications for conservation planning and management are discussed from a global change adaptation perspective.     

Estimating the consequences of land-use changes on butterfly diversity in a marginal agricultural landscape in Sweden

Abandonment of farming with the resultant increase in forest cover is one of the major threats to semi-natural grasslands in marginal agricultural areas. In Sweden, the loss of semi-natural grassland is a serious nature conservation problem since it is one of the most species-rich habitats. In this study, the consequences of grassland abandonment and afforestation on butterfly diversity and butterfly dispersal costs are estimated and used to compare three different future land-use scenarios for a marginal agricultural landscape in Sweden. Based on previous butterfly surveys on grasslands in the area, a relationship between land-use type and butterfly diversity was established. By comparing land-use maps of different scenarios, the number of suitable habitat patches and total suitable habitat patch area with low, medium and high butterfly diversity could be estimated. To obtain an indication of possible fragmentation effects, a least-cost analysis was used to compare travel costs of the butterflies between suitable habitat patches for the different scenarios. The results show that different land-use scenarios affect butterfly diversity and travel costs differently. In the extreme case scenario of cessation of full-time farming and a reduction in part-time farming, nearly all valuable butterfly habitats will vanish, since the most species-rich habitats lie in the periphery of the settlement and are expected to be abandoned and afforested first. If, on the other hand, grassland management is less reduced the effect of abandonment on butterflies depends very much on which areas continue to be managed. To preserve the most important grasslands for butterflies an active management strategy for the whole study area would be needed. While it seems relatively easy to identify the areas most important to conserve from a butterfly diversity perspective, it will be more difficult to find an optimal spatial solution that also minimises dispersal costs for butterflies.     

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.     

Comparison of butterfly communities and abundances between marginal grasslands and conservation lands in the eastern Great Plains

The alteration and fragmentation of native tallgrass prairie in the Midwestern United States has created a need to identify other land types with the ability to support grassland butterfly species. This study examines butterfly usage of marginal grasslands, which consist of semi-natural grasslands existing within in a larger agricultural matrix, compared to grasslands managed for conservation of prairie species. Using generalized linear mixed models we analyzed how land purpose (marginal vs. conservation grasslands) affected butterfly abundance. We found grassland butterfly species to be significantly more common on conservation grasslands, whereas generalist species were significantly more common on marginal grasslands. Results of ordination analyses indicated that while many species used both types of habitats, butterfly species assemblages were distinct between habitat types and that edge to interior ratio and the floristic quality index of sites were important habitat characteristics driving this distinction. Within conservation grasslands we examined the relationship between butterfly abundance and the planting diversity used in restoring each site. We found higher diversity restorations hosted more individuals of butterflies considered habitat generalists, as well as species considered to be of conservation concern.     

Relationships between the age of northern Kantou plain (central Japan) coppice woods used for production of Japanese forest mushroom logs and butterfly assemblage structure

To discern mechanisms maintaining the diversity of grassland and forest butterflies in coppice woods managed for the production of Japanese forest mushroom logs, we investigated the butterfly fauna in cut-over land tracts shortly after felling and 5 year later, and in forest stands 10, 15, and 25 year after felling (here, we use the term “forests” when referring to the chronosequence of these treed stands). Butterfly species richness and diversity (H′) and the densities of individuals were highest in cut-over lands 5 year after clear-cutting, followed by 25-year-old forest stands. In forests, the richness and densities of forest butterfly species were higher than were those of grassland species. Among forest stands of different ages, forest butterfly species’ richness and the densities of individuals were highest in 25-year-old woods nearing felling time. Some forest butterfly species were observed only in forests. The species richness and densities of grassland butterflies were much higher in cut-over lands 0 and 5 year post felling than in forests; grassland species were rarely found in stands ≥10 year old. Thus, cut-over lands seem to function as temporary habitats for grassland species. Furthermore, the number of forest butterfly species was the same in cut-over lands 5 year after felling and in 25-year-old forest stands; the densities of forest butterfly species was higher in these cut-over lands than in the forest stands. Forest butterfly species living on cut-over land 5 year post felling sipped flower nectar, laid eggs on host plants, and practiced territorial behaviour involved in mate finding. Hence, these cut-over lands functioned as important habitats for various developmental stages of forest butterflies. In conclusion, traditional coppicing in woods for production of Japanese forest mushroom logs is very important for the maintenance of diversity in grassland and forest butterfly species.     

How climate,migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process‐based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north‐eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1–2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36–61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life‐history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future.     

Livestock-driven land use change to model species distributions: Egyptian vulture as a case study

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict species ranges and their shifts under future scenarios of global environmental change (GEC). SDMs are thus incorporating key drivers of GEC (e.g. climate, land use) to improve predictions of species’ habitat suitability (i.e. as an indicator of species occurrence). Yet, most SDMs incorporating land use only consider dominant land cover types, largely ignoring other key aspects of land use such as land management intensity and livestock. We developed SDMs including main land use components (i.e. land cover, livestock and its management intensity) to assess their relative importance in shaping habitat suitability for the Egyptian vulture, an endangered raptor linked to livestock presence. We modelled current and future (2020 and 2050) habitat suitability for this vulture using an organism-centred approach. This allowed us to account for basic species’ habitat needs (i.e. nesting cliff) while gaining insight into our variables of interest (i.e. livestock and land cover). Once nest-site requirements were fulfilled, land use variables (i.e. openland and sheep and goat density) were the main factors determining species’ habitat suitability. Current suitable area could decrease by up to 6.81% by 2050 under scenarios with rapid economic growth but no focus on environmental conservation and rural development. Local solutions to environmental sustainability and rural development could double current habitat suitability by 2050. Land use is expected to play a key role in determining Egyptian vulture's distribution through land cover change but also through changes in livestock management (i.e. species and stocking density). Change in stocking densities (sheep and goats/km²) becomes thus an indicator of habitat suitability for this vulture in our study area. Abandonment of agro-pastoral practises (i.e. below ∼15–20 sheep and goats/km²) will negatively influence the species distribution. Nonetheless, livestock densities above these values will not further increase habitat suitability. Given the widespread impacts of livestock on ecosystems, the role of livestock and its management intensity in SDMs for other (non-livestock-related) species should be further explored.     

Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States

Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose‐grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade‐offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business‐as‐usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose‐grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose‐grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land‐use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for biodiversity, and point to the challenges associated with evaluating bioenergy sustainability.     

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long‐term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short‐term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.     

The complexity of forest borders determines the understorey vegetation

Questions

What are the most important drivers of plant species richness (gamma‐diversity) and species turnover (beta‐diversity) in the field layer of a forest edge? Does the tree and shrub species richness structure and complexity affect the richness of forest and grassland specialist species?

Location

Southeast Sweden.

Methods

We sampled 50 forest edges with different levels of structural complexity in agricultural landscapes. In each border we recorded trees, shrubs and herb layer species in a 50‐m transect parallel with the forest. We investigated species composition and species turnover in relation to the proportions of gaps in the border and the diversity of trees and shrubs.

Results

Total plant species richness in the field layer was mainly explained by the proportion of gaps to areas with full canopy cover and tree diversity. Increasing number of gaps promoted higher diversity of grassland specialist species within the field layer, resulting in open forest borders with the highest overall species richness. Gaps did however have a negative impact on forest species richness. Conversely, increasing forest species richness was positively related to tree diversity, but the number of grassland specialist species was negatively affected by tree diversity.

Conclusions

Managing forest borders, and therefore increasing the area of semi‐open habitats in fragmented agricultural landscapes, provides future opportunities to create a network of suitable habitats for both grassland and deciduous forest specialist species. Such measures therefore have the potential to increase functional connectivity and support dispersal of species in homogeneous forest/agricultural landscapes.     

Butterfly diversity and historical land cover change along an altitudinal gradient

Land cover and climate change are both major threats for biodiversity. In mountain ecosystems species have to adapt to fragmented habitats and harsh environmental conditions but so far, altitudinal effects in combination with land cover change have been rarely studied. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of altitude and historical land cover change on butterfly diversity. We studied species richness patterns of butterflies occuring in wetlands and other open habitats along an altitudinal gradient in a low mountain region (340–750 m a.s.l., Bavaria, Germany) with drastic loss of open habitats within the last 40–60 years. We recorded in 27 sites a total of 4,523 individuals of 49 butterfly species and five species of burnet moths. Species richness peaked at mid elevation and increased with patch size. Land cover change was most pronounced at high altitudes, but neither current open habitats, nor the historical loss of open habitats affected the species richness of butterflies. Neither open land specialized butterflies nor generalist and forest species were significantly affected by the loss of open habitats. However, increasing forest area in high altitudes reduces possible refuge open habitats for butterflies at their thermal distribution limits. This could lead to extinction of such butterfly species when temperatures further rise due to global warming.     

Effects of managing semi-natural grassland buffers on butterflies

Butterflies are important components of biodiversity in grassland ecosystems and provide ecosystem services such as pollination. Although agricultural intensification has led to a scarcity of native grassland habitats within most agricultural landscapes of North America, fragmented remnants and semi-natural habitats may support diverse communities, including butterflies, as long as vital resources such as host plants are available. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program practice CP33 Habitat Buffers for Upland Birds (USDA 2004) provides semi-natural grassland habitat in agricultural landscapes, but a knowledge gap exists about impacts of prescribed disturbance (e.g. burning or disking) on butterflies. We monitored butterfly habitat and butterfly communities on experimentally manipulated CP33 grassland buffers in Clay County, Mississippi from 2007 to 2009. Disturbance guild butterfly species richness did not differ among treatments. However, disturbance guild abundance was positively affected by disking in both the first and second growing seasons following disking, and the magnitude of this response varied between years. Effects of burning on disturbance guild abundance did not differ from the control treatment. There were no treatment differences for grassland guild butterfly abundance and species richness suggesting that periodic disturbance does not unduly impact grassland-associated butterflies in the southeastern US. Our results support current USDA practice standards that require periodic disturbance during the 10-year contract, but restrict the disturbance to 1/3 or 1/4 of grassland buffer area in a given year.     

Butterfly species richness and abundance in the Katavi ecosystem of western Tanzania

We sampled butterflies in six different habitat types in and around Katavi National Park, a remote reserve consisting primarily of miombo woodland and seasonal lakes in western Tanzania. Blendon traps set for 531 trap days and 143 h of butterfly netting at 35 sites yielded 186 species from five families over a 4‐month period during the wet season. Eight of these species constituted possible range extensions. Butterfly abundance and species richness were low in cultivated habitats but high in open riverine habitats; many butterfly species were found only in seasonally flooded grassland. This study constitutes the first butterfly species inventory from this poorly‐known national park, shows that protection of dry season water sources provides an important conservation service for invertebrates as well as large mammals, and that increased cultivation outside miombo parks can reduce local butterfly diversity.     

Spatiotemporal land use modelling to assess land availability for energy crops – illustrated for Mozambique

A method and tool have been developed to assess future developments in land availability for bioenergy crops in a spatially explicit way, while taking into account both the developments in other land use functions, such as land for food, livestock and material production, and the uncertainties in the key determinant factors of land use change (LUC). This spatiotemporal LUC model is demonstrated with a case study on the developments in the land availability for bioenergy crops in Mozambique in the timeframe 2005–2030. The developments in the main drivers for agricultural land use, demand for food, animal products and materials were assessed, based on the projected developments in population, diet, GDP and self‐sufficiency ratio. Two scenarios were developed: a business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenario and a progressive scenario. Land allocation was based on land use class‐specific sets of suitability factors. The LUC dynamics were mapped on a 1 km² grid level for each individual year up to 2030. In the BAU scenario, 7.7 Mha and in the progressive scenario 16.4 Mha could become available for bioenergy crop production in 2030. Based on the Monte Carlo analysis, a 95% confidence interval of the amount of land available and the spatially explicit probability of available land was found. The bottom‐up approach, the number of dynamic land uses, the diverse portfolio of LUC drivers and suitability factors, and the possibility to model uncertainty mean that this model is a step forward in modelling land availability for bioenergy potentials.     

碳税政策对农业土地利用变化及其碳排放的影响

农业生态系统具有碳源和碳汇的双重特征,其在减缓气候变化中的重要性已得到国际社会的广泛认可。相较于技术手段的创新,碳税、补贴等经济手段被认为是较为简单、可行、易出台的碳排放减缓政策。采用气候变化综合评估模型-GOPer-GC模型,构建国际碳税情景,模拟分析了2008年至2050年碳税政策的实施对全球各区域农业土地覆被及土地利用变化碳排放的影响。模拟结果表明,情景2和情景3中全球农业土地利用变化累计碳排放分别达到49.6 GtC和23.1 GtC,明显低于基准情景的累计排放量51.9 GtC。这说明,实施碳税政策后,相较于将碳税收入用作一般性财政收入,将碳税收入补贴至农业部门在一定程度上减缓农业碳排放。此外,林业部门获取更多的碳税补贴时,多数区域农业土地利用变化碳排放规模大幅减少,主因是耕地变为林地、草地变为林地面积的增加。情景3中,中国的碳汇量较其他情景显著增加,主要来自耕地变为林地、草地变为林地,累计碳汇量分别达到1.7和3.7 GtC。因此,对于中国、美国、印度等大部分区域来说,碳税收入更多地补贴至林业部门有利于在整体上减缓农业碳排放,而欧盟、日本、东亚、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、东欧地区,碳税收入平均补贴至种植业、畜牧业和林业反而具有相对更好的减排效果。     

Value of fallow farmlands as summer habitats for waterbirds in a Japanese rural area

Flooded rice fields, which occupy half of the total agricultural land in Japan, are known to be foraging habitats for waterbirds. We investigated the use of various fallow fields by birds in midsummer, when rice fields are generally full of grown rice plants and are of little use for foraging waterbirds. We distinguished four types of fallow fields based on the ground cover and vegetation: (i) tall-grass fields; (ii) wet short-grass fields; (iii) dry fields; and (iv) flooded open fields. In August 1998 we counted birds four times in 19 survey plots of fallow fields and in seven plots of rice fields in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, where 82% of the farmlands are devoted to rice production. We observed 590 individual birds of 22 species, of which 15 species were waterbirds, mostly herons and shorebirds. Flooded open fields supported the largest number of species and the highest bird density, while rice fields supported the fewest. Within flooded open fields, herons preferred open-water areas, while shorebirds used bare ground most often. Wet short-grass fields looked similar to flooded open fields, except for the amount of short grass, but supported far fewer birds than flooded open fields. The number of birds in dry fields was comparable to that in flooded open fields, but most of the birds were ground-foraging passerines. Our limited dataset suggests that fallow fields can serve as valuable supplemental habitats for waterbirds during summer, if they are appropriately managed to preserve flooded open fields and smaller areas of other habitats.     

Climate,competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees

Aim Species ranges have adapted during the Holocene to altering climate conditions, but it remains unclear if species will be able to keep pace with recent and future climate change. The goal of our study is to assess the influence of changing macroclimate, competition and habitat connectivity on the migration rates of 14 tree species. We also compare the projections of range shifts from species distribution models (SDMs) that incorporate realistic migration rates with classical models that assume no or unlimited migration. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated SDMs with species abundance data from 5768 forest plots from ICP Forest Level 1 in relation to climate, topography, soil and land‐use data to predict current and future tree distributions. To predict future species ranges from these models, we applied three migration scenarios: no migration, unlimited migration and realistic migration. The migration rates for the SDMs incorporating realistic migration were estimated according to macroclimate, inter‐specific competition and habitat connectivity from simulation experiments with a spatially explicit process model (TreeMig). From these relationships, we then developed a migration cost surface to constrain the predicted distributions of the SDMs. Results The distributions of early‐successional species during the 21st century predicted by SDMs that incorporate realistic migration matched quite well with the unlimited migration assumption (mean migration rate over Europe for A1fi/GRAS climate and land‐use change scenario 156.7 ± 79.1 m year^?1 and for B1/SEDG 164.3 ± 84.2 m year^?1). The predicted distributions of mid‐ to late‐successional species matched better with the no migration assumption (A1fi/GRAS, 15.2 ± 24.5 m year^?1 and B1/SEDG, 16.0 ± 25.6 m year^?1). Inter‐specific competition, which is higher under favourable growing conditions, reduced range shift velocity more than did adverse macroclimatic conditions (i.e. very cold or dry climate). Habitat fragmentation also led to considerable time lags in range shifts. Main conclusions Migration rates depend on species traits, competition, spatial habitat configuration and climatic conditions. As a result, re‐adjustments of species ranges to climate and land‐use change are complex and very individualistic, yet still quite predictable. Early‐successional species track climate change almost instantaneously while mid‐ to late‐ successional species were predicted to migrate very slowly.     

城市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟——以深圳市为例

深圳市作为粤港澳大湾区城市化水平最高、经济最为发达区域，其快速变化的土地利用方式对生态系统服务价值产生了深刻影响。基于1995—2015年深圳市土地利用和生态系统服务价值(ESV)变化规律，运用FLUS模型与ESV算法，设定自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种情景，模拟不同情景下土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明：(1) 1995—2015年转出量最高的地类是草地，草地与林地间存在密切相互转化关系，除建设用地外，其余地类均呈“入不敷出”态势；(2) 1995—2015年ESV总价值的下降趋势由迅猛变化为和缓，调节服务是深圳市最主要的生态系统服务功能，其次则是支持服务功能；(3)秉持粤港澳大湾区建设基本原则，以2035年为目标年，设定了自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护四种情景，发现自然发展和城市发展的ESV总价值损失量较高，建筑面积的增加和草地面积的大规模减少成为两情景下生态系统服务价值减少的关键。生态保护情景下，虽然ESV总价值减少趋势并未有效遏制，但减少量明显少于其余三种情景，成为未来深圳市土地利用优化的最优情景。