A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003–2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector‐borne disease under climate change.     

西尼罗病毒研究进展

西尼罗病毒（West Nile virus,WNV）属黄病毒科,为正单链RNA病毒。它在人类中的感染导致以发热为主要症状的传染性疾病,主要由蚊虫叮咬传播。自20世纪50年代首例报告西尼罗病毒自然感染所致脑炎后的几十年内,西尼罗病毒脑炎在欧洲及中亚地区散在、小规模流行。西尼罗病毒脑炎于1999年在美国的爆发及随后几年在北美的流行引起了极大的关注。这次爆发流行中新出现的种种迹象,如其中间宿主——野生鸟类的大量死亡,人类感染者中中枢神经系统受损比例的增高等,提示近期的遗传变异已使西尼罗病毒感染的病理学与流行病学发生了较显著的变化。另外,随着感染的流行,蚊虫叮咬以外的传播途径,如输血、器官移植、母婴传播等日益受到人们重视。同时,人们对阻止疫情所急需的疫苗的研制也在进行之中。本文就近几年来对西尼罗病毒的感染、免疫与流行病学方面的研究进展进行了综述。     

Evidence of vertical transmission of West Nile virus in field‐collected mosquitoes

Male and nulliparous female mosquitoes were surveyed for evidence of vertical WNV infection in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana. Adult male mosquitoes collected by trapping and aspiration, and adult male and nulliparous female mosquitoes reared from field‐collected larvae were tested. Adult male Culex spp., female Aedes albopictus (Skuse), and female Culex quinquifasciatus Say mosquitoes that were collected as larvae were test‐positive for WNV RNA. Infectious WNV was detected using virus isolation in field‐collected male Aedes triseriatus Say and Culex salinarius Coquillett; these data represent the first field evidence of vertical transmission of WNV in Ae. triseriatus and Cx. salinarius.     

A Model for Defining West Nile Virus Risk Perception Based on Ecology and Proximity

West Nile virus (WNV) has made considerable impact as an emerging infectious disease, spreading from coast to coast across North America since 1999. The disease has exhibited great spatial variability in North America, making an ecosystems approach to understanding the local human and vector ecology critical to prevention and control. This study underscores the importance of employing both personal prevention and community participatory approaches to create messages that have been adapted to the local ecology and are designed to reduce the risk of human infection with this mosquito-borne virus. As the virus spreads into new areas, underlying attitudes toward mosquitoes and the local perception of environment/ecology can affect the success of control and prevention measures. This work presents results from focus group discussions conducted in two Colorado counties in 2003, a year of significant WNV activity in the state. Issues addressed include residents’ assessment of risk and how this perception varied by age group and location, use or nonuse of repellents, and community attitudes toward mosquito control in areas with different ecologies and histories of mosquito-borne disease. The need to address individual components of personal prevention, to target prevention to specific audiences, and to disseminate prevention messages through local channels is discussed. The authors propose including aspects of ecology and disease proximity in understanding risk perception and addressing emerging diseases with a prominent ecological component.     

Climate,environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.     

Control of arbovirus infections by a coordinated response: West Nile Virus in England and Wales

Although there is no recognized transmission of human arboviral infections in the UK, concerns about the possible spread of West Nile virus (WNV) have precipitated coordinated activities around both surveillance and response. The Department of Health has chaired a UK WNV task force since the end of 2000. This is a multidisciplinary group of senior representatives from Agencies and Government Departments involved in human and animal health, entomology and academic departments. Activities include surveillance for WNV infections in humans, and in dead birds, mosquitoes and horses. All have been negative for WNV. A WNV contingency plan was produced in 2004, and this could be used as a generic plan for an effective and coordinated response in the event of the emergence of a new vector-borne zoonotic infection.     

Multi-species interactions in West Nile virus infection

In this paper, we analyse the interaction of different species of birds and mosquitoes on the dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) infection. We study the different transmission efficiencies of the vectors and birds and the impact on the possible outbreaks. We show that the basic reproductive number is the weighted mean of the basic reproductive number of each species, weighted by the relative abundance of its population in the location. These results suggest a possible explanation of why there are no outbreaks of WNV in Mexico.     

Persistence of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is a widespread global pathogen that results in significant morbidity and mortality. Data from animal models provide evidence of persistent renal and neurological infection from WNV; however, the possibility of persistent infection in humans and long-term neurological and renal outcomes related to viral persistence remain largely unknown. In this paper, we provide a review of the literature related to persistent infection in parallel with the findings from cohorts of patients with a history of WNV infection. The next steps for enhancing our understanding of WNV as a persistent pathogen are discussed.     

Apoptosis in mosquito midgut epithelia associated with West Nile virus infection

The mosquito Culex pipiens pipiens is a documented vector of West Nile virus (WNV, Flaviviridae, Flavivirus). Our laboratory colony of C. p. pipiens, however, was repeatedly refractory to experimental transmission of WNV. Our goal was to identify if a cellular process was inhibiting virus infection of the midgut. We examined midguts of mosquitoes fed control and WNV-infected blood meals. Three days after feeding, epithelial cells from abdominal midguts of mosquitoes fed on WNV fluoresced under an FITC filter following Acridine Orange staining, indicating apoptosis in this region. Epithelial cells from experimental samples examined by TEM exhibited ultrastructural changes consistent with apoptosis, including shrinkage and detachment from neighbors, heterochromatin condensation, nuclear degranulation, and engulfment of apoptotic bodies by adjacent cells. Virions were present in cytoplasm and within cytoplasmic vacuoles of apoptotic cells. No apoptosis was detected by TEM in control samples. In parallel, we used Vero cell plaque assays to quantify infection after 7 and 10 day extrinsic incubation periods and found that none of the mosquitoes (0/55 and 0/10) which imbibed infective blood were infected. We propose that programmed cell death limits the number of WNV-infected epithelial cells and inhibits disseminated viral infections from the mosquito midgut.     

Serologic survey of West Nile virus in horses from Central-West,Northeast and Southeast Brazil

Since the emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America in 1999, there have been several reports of WNV activity in Central and South American countries. To detect WNV in Brazil, we performed a serological survey of horses from different regions of Brazil using recombinant peptides from domain III of WNV. Positive samples were validated with the neutralisation test. Our results showed that of 79 ELISA-positive horses, nine expressed WNV-specific neutralising antibodies. Eight of the infected horses were from the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and one was from the state of Paraíba. Our results provide additional evidence for the emergence of WNV in Brazil and for its circulation in multiple regions of the country.     

The impact of maturation delay of mosquitoes on the transmission of West Nile virus

We formulate and analyze a delay differential equation model for the transmission of West Nile virus between vector mosquitoes and avian hosts that incorporates maturation delay for mosquitoes. The maturation time from eggs to adult mosquitoes is sensitive to weather conditions, in particular the temperature, and the model allows us to investigate the impact of this maturation time on transmission dynamics of the virus among mosquitoes and birds. Numerical results of the model show that a combination of the maturation time and the vertical transmission of the virus in mosquitoes has substantial influence on the abundance and number of infection peaks of the infectious mosquitoes.     

Evidence for a population expansion in the West Nile virus vector Culex tarsalis

Population genetic structure of the West Nile Virus vector Culex tarsalis was investigated in 5 states in the western United States using 5 microsatellite loci and a fragment of the mitochondrial reduced form of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide dehydrogenase 4 (ND4) gene. ND4 sequence analysis revealed a lack of isolation by distance, panmixia across all populations, an excess of rare haplotypes, and a star-like phylogeny. Microsatellites revealed moderate genetic differentiation and isolation by distance, with the largest genetic distance occurring between populations in southern California and New Mexico (F(ST) = 0.146). Clustering analysis and analysis of molecular variance on microsatellite data indicated the presence of 3 broad population clusters. Mismatch distributions and site-frequency spectra derived from mitochondrial ND4 sequences displayed pattern's characteristic of population expansion. Fu and Li's D* and F*, Fu's F(S), and Tajima's D statistics performed on ND4 sequences all revealed significant, negative deviations from mutation-drift equilibrium. Microsatellite-based multilocus heterozygosity tests showed evidence of range expansion in the majority of populations. Our results suggest that C. tarsalis underwent a range expansion across the western United States within the last 375,000-560,000 years, which may have been associated with Pleistocene glaciation events that occurred in the midwestern and western United States between 350,000 and 1 MYA.     

西尼罗病毒的RT-PCR检测与鉴定

建立西尼罗病毒敏感、特异、快速的RT-PCR检测方法用于实验室诊断和流行病学监测。采用一步RT-PCR和套式PCR法对西尼罗病毒感染的乳鼠脑和细胞培养上清进行扩增,并对扩增产物进行序列测定。两种方法均可分别从两种组织中扩增出与预期大小相一致的片段,套式PCR法比一步RT-PCR法更为敏感,该扩增片段与西尼罗病毒埃及Eg101株相应序列的同源性为99％。     

Polymorphic microsatellite loci from the West Nile virus vector Culex tarsalis

Since its introduction in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread across North America. Culex tarsalis is a highly efficient WNV vector species. Many traits such as virus susceptibility, autogeny and host preference vary geographically and temporally in C. tarsalis. Culex tarsalis genomic libraries were developed and were highly enriched for microsatellite inserts (42–96%). We identified 12 loci that were polymorphic in wild C. tarsalis populations. These microsatellites are the first DNA‐based genetic markers developed for C. tarsalis and will be useful for investigating population structure and constructing genetic maps in this mosquito.     

West Nile virus may have hitched a ride across the Western United States on Culex tarsalis mosquitoes

West Nile virus spread rapidly from east to west across North America, despite the north‐south migratory flyways of its avian hosts. In this issue, Venkatesan & Rasgon (2010) present new data on the population genetics of Culex tarsalis, the dominant West Nile virus vector in the Western United States, suggesting that patterns of mosquito gene flow may better reflect the virus’s expansion from the Midwest to the Pacific than patterns of bird movement. These findings suggest a more significant role for vector dispersal in arboviral range expansion than has previously been appreciated, and they highlight the value of molecular genetic studies of insect vector populations for understanding epidemiology and disease ecology.     

我国西尼罗病毒和Tahyna病毒的发现与流行

已发现100余种蚊传虫媒病毒在世界各地流行,其引发的人兽共患病是全世界关注的公共卫生问题。长期以来我国仅发现乙型脑炎和登革热两种蚊传虫媒病毒病,但近年来新发现西尼罗病毒和Tahyna病毒及其感染疾病流行。从我国新疆维吾尔自治区采集的蚊虫标本中分离到西尼罗病毒,大量血清学研究证明当地不仅存在西尼罗病毒感染所致疾病,还发生过西尼罗病毒感染引发的病毒性脑炎流行。目前已从新疆维吾尔自治区、青海省和内蒙古自治区采集的蚊虫标本中分离到Tahyna病毒,并发现其在自然界动物中的循环和导致的人类感染流行。西尼罗病毒和Tahyna病毒及其相关感染性疾病的发现为我国虫媒病毒及虫媒病毒病的预防与控制提出了新的挑战。     

The backward bifurcation in compartmental models for West Nile virus

In all of the West Nile virus (WNV) compartmental models in the literature, the basic reproduction number serves as a crucial control threshold for the eradication of the virus. However, our study suggests that backward bifurcation is a common property shared by the available compartmental models with a logistic type of growth for the population of host birds. There exists a subthreshold condition for the outbreak of the virus due to the existence of backward bifurcation. In this paper, we first review and give a comparison study of the four available compartmental models for the virus, and focus on the analysis of the model proposed by Cruz-Pacheco et al. to explore the backward bifurcation in the model. Our comparison study suggests that the mosquito population dynamics itself cannot explain the occurrence of the backward bifurcation, it is the higher mortality rate of the avian host due to the infection that determines the existence of backward bifurcation.     

Development and characterization of West Nile virus replicon expressing secreted Gaussia Luciferase

We developed a Gaussia luciferase (Gluc) reporter replicon of West Nile virus (WNV) and used it to quantify viral translation and RNA replication. The advantage of the Gluc replicon is that Gaussia luciferase is secreted into the culture medium from cells transfected with Gluc replicon RNA, and the medium can be assayed directly for luciferase activity. Using a known Flavivirus inhibitor (NITD008), we demonstrated that the Gluc-WNV replicon could be used for antiviral screening. The Gluc-WNV-Rep will be useful for research in antiviral drug development programs, as well as for studying viral replication and pathogenesis of WNV.