Simulated effects of low atmospheric CO2 on structure and composition of North American vegetation at the Last Glacial Maximum

1. Physiological experiments have indicated that the lower CO₂ levels of the last glaciation (200 μmol mol^?1) probably reduced plant water-use efficiency (WUE) and that they combined with increased aridity and colder temperatures to alter vegetation structure and composition at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). 2. The effects of low CO₂ on vegetation structure were investigated using BIOME3 simulations of leaf area index (LAI), and a two-by-two factorial experimental design (modern/LGM CO₂, modern/LGM climate).3. Using BIOME3, and a combination of lowered CO₂ and simulated LGM climate (from the NCAR-CCM1 model), results in the introduction of additional xeric vegetation types between open woodland and closed-canopy forest along a latitudinal gradient in eastern North America.4. The simulated LAI of LGM vegetation was 25–60% lower in many regions of central and eastern United States relative to modern climate, indicating that glacial vegetation was much more open than today.5. Comparison of factorial simulations show that low atmospheric CO₂ has the potential to alter vegetation structure (LAI) to a greater extent than LGM climate.6. If the magnitude of LAI reductions simulated for glacial North America were global, then low atmospheric CO₂ may have promoted atmospheric warming and increased aridity, through alteration of rates of water and heat exchange with the atmosphere.     

Beringia as a glacial refugium for boreal trees and shrubs: new perspectives from mapped pollen data

Aim Beringia, far north‐eastern Siberia and north‐western North America, was largely unglaciated during the Pleistocene. Although this region has long been considered an ice‐age refugium for arctic herbs and shrubs, little is known about its role as a refugium for boreal trees and shrubs during the last glacial maximum (LGM, c. 28,000–15,000 calibrated years before present). We examine mapped patterns of pollen percentages to infer whether six boreal tree and shrub taxa (Populus, Larix, Picea, Pinus, Betula, Alnus/Duschekia) survived the harsh glacial conditions within Beringia. Methods Extensive networks of pollen records have the potential to reveal distinctive temporal–spatial patterns that discriminate between local‐ and long‐distance sources of pollen. We assembled pollen records for 149 lake, peat and alluvial sites from the Palaeoenvironmental Arctic Sciences database, plotting pollen percentages at 1000‐year time intervals from 21,000 to 6000 calibrated years before present. Pollen percentages are interpreted with an understanding of modern pollen representation and potential sources of long‐distance pollen during the glacial maximum. Inferences from pollen data are supplemented by published radiocarbon dates of identified macrofossils, where available. Results Pollen maps for individual taxa show unique temporal‐spatial patterns, but the data for each taxon argue more strongly for survival within Beringia than for immigration from outside regions. The first increase of Populus pollen percentages in the western Brooks Ranges is evidence that Populus trees survived the LGM in central Beringia. Both pollen and macrofossil evidence support Larix survival in western Beringia (WB), but data for Larix in eastern Beringia (EB) are unclear. Given the similar distances of WB and EB to glacial‐age boreal forests in temperate latitudes of Asia and North America, the widespread presence of Picea pollen in EB and Pinus pollen in WB indicates that Picea and Pinus survived within these respective regions. Betula pollen is broadly distributed but highly variable in glacial‐maximum samples, suggesting that Betula trees or shrubs survived in restricted populations throughout Beringia. Alnus/Duschekia percentages show complex patterns, but generally support a glacial refugium in WB. Main conclusions Our interpretations have several implications, including: (1) the rapid post‐glacial migration rate reported for Picea in western Canada may be over estimated, (2) the expansion of trees and shrubs within Beringia should have been nearly contemporaneous with climatic change, (3) boreal trees and shrubs are capable of surviving long periods in relatively small populations (at the lower limit of detection in pollen data) and (4) long‐distance migration may not have been the predominant mode of vegetation response to climatic change in Beringia.     

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO₂ changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought‐tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen‐based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO₂ concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought‐tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low‐latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on C₃ photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO₂ concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO₂ concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO₂ effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial‐interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.     

Identification of glacial refugia in south-eastern North America by phylogeographical analyses of a forest understorey plant, Trillium cuneatum

Aim We examine several hypotheses emerging from biogeographical and fossil records regarding glacial refugia of a southern thermophilic plant species. Specifically, we investigated the glacial history and post‐glacial colonization of a forest understorey species, Trillium cuneatum. We focused on the following questions: (1) Did T. cuneatum survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia, and (if so) where were they located, and is the modern genetic structure congruent with the fossil record‐based reconstruction of refugia for mesic deciduous forests? (2) What are the post‐glacial colonization patterns in the present geographical range? Location South‐eastern North America. Methods We sampled 45 populations of T. cuneatum throughout its current range. We conducted phylogeographical analyses based on maternally inherited chloroplast DNA (cpDNA haplotypes) and used TCS software to reconstruct intraspecific phylogeny. Results We detected six cpDNA haplotypes, geographically highly structured into non‐overlapping areas. With one exception, none of the populations had mixed haplotype composition. TCS analysis resulted in two intraspecific cpDNA lineages, with one clade subdivided further by shallower diversification. Main conclusions Our investigation revealed that T. cuneatum survived the LGM in multiple refugia, belonging to two (western, eastern) genealogical lineages geographically structured across south‐eastern North America. The western clade is confined to the south‐western corner of T. cuneatum’s modern range along the Lower Mississippi Valley, where fossil records document a major refugium of mesic deciduous forest. For the eastern clade, modern patterns of cpDNA haplotype distribution suggest cryptic vicariance, in the form of forest contractions and subsequent expansions associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles, rather than simple southern survival and subsequent northward colonization. The north–south partitioning of cpDNA haplotypes was unexpected, suggesting that populations of this rather southern thermophilic species may have survived in more northern locations than initially expected based on LGM climate reconstruction, and that the Appalachian Mountains functioned as a barrier to the dispersal of propagules originating in more southern refugia. Furthermore, our results reveal south‐west to north‐east directionality in historical migration through the Valley and Ridge region of north‐west Georgia.     

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid‐Holocene (6000 ¹⁴C yr bp ) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp ), with a view to evaluating coupled climate‐biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site‐based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present‐day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south‐western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial‐interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now‐arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land‐surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere‐biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land‐surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation‐climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate‐induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid‐Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp and for the LGM.     

Beringia and the global dispersal of modern humans

Until recently, the settlement of the Americas seemed largely divorced from the out‐of‐Africa dispersal of anatomically modern humans, which began at least 50,000 years ago. Native Americans were thought to represent a small subset of the Eurasian population that migrated to the Western Hemisphere less than 15,000 years ago. Archeological discoveries since 2000 reveal, however, that Homo sapiens occupied the high‐latitude region between Northeast Asia and northwest North America (that is, Beringia) before 30,000 years ago and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The settlement of Beringia now appears to have been part of modern human dispersal in northern Eurasia. A 2007 model, the Beringian Standstill Hypothesis, which is based on analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in living people, derives Native Americans from a population that occupied Beringia during the LGM. The model suggests a parallel between ancestral Native Americans and modern human populations that retreated to refugia in other parts of the world during the arid LGM. It is supported by evidence of comparatively mild climates and rich biota in south‐central Beringia at this time (30,000‐15,000 years ago). These and other developments suggest that the settlement of the Americas may be integrated with the global dispersal of modern humans.     

Ice‐age persistence and genetic isolation of the disjunct distribution of larch in Alaska

Larix laricina (eastern larch, tamarack) is a transcontinental North American conifer with a prominent disjunction in the Yukon isolating the Alaskan distribution from the rest of its range. We investigate whether in situ persistence during the last glacial maximum (LGM) or long‐distance postglacial migration from south of the ice sheets resulted in the modern‐day Alaskan distribution. We analyzed variation in three chloroplast DNA regions of 840 trees from a total of 69 populations (24 new sampling sites situated on both sides of the Yukon range disjunction pooled with 45 populations from a published source) and conducted ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) throughout Canada and United States to hindcast the potential range of L. laricina during the LGM. We uncovered the genetic signature of a long‐term isolation of larch populations in Alaska, identifying three endemic chlorotypes and low levels of genetic diversity. Range‐wide analysis across North America revealed the presence of a distinct Alaskan lineage. Postglacial gene flow across the Yukon divide was unidirectional, from Alaska toward previously glaciated Canadian regions, and with no evidence of immigration into Alaska. Hindcast SDM indicates one of the broadest areas of past climate suitability for L. laricina existed in central Alaska, suggesting possible in situ persistence of larch in Alaska during the LGM. Our results provide the first unambiguous evidence for the long‐term isolation of L. laricina in Alaska that extends beyond the last glacial period and into the present interglacial period. The lack of gene flow into Alaska along with the overall probability of larch occurrence in Alaska being currently lower than during the LGM suggests that modern‐day Alaskan larch populations are isolated climate relicts of broader glacial distributions, and so are particularly vulnerable to current warming trends.     

The influence of abrupt climate change on the ice‐age vegetation of the Central American lowlands

Aim To investigate the effects of abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic on the vegetation history of lowland Central America. We use palynological evidence from a Central American lake on the Yucatan Peninsula to evaluate the effects of rapid climate changes during the last ice age, between 65 and 8 ka. Location Lake Petén‐Itzá, lowlands of northern Guatemala. Methods Sediment core PI‐6 was sampled at c. 170‐year resolution for pollen and charcoal analysis in order to construct a temporal sequence of environmental change. Uni‐ and multivariate statistical analyses were performed on the pollen dataset to test whether there was an association between Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and vegetation changes in the Central American lowlands. Results Pollen analysis revealed that the composition of plant assemblages on the Yucatan Peninsula varied in phase with rapid changes in North Atlantic climate. Pine savannas were the main vegetation type between c. 60 and 47 ka. These savannas gave way to pine–oak (Pinus–Quercus) forests in the latter half of the last ice age. Marked episodes of replacement of the pine–oak assemblage by xeric‐tolerant taxa occurred during Heinrich events. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterized by mesic conditions. Main conclusions The pollen record from Lake Petén‐Itzá showed that vegetation changes associated with Heinrich events were more significant than those associated with the LGM. Each Heinrich event produced a characteristic shift towards xeric taxa. Although colder than Heinrich events, the LGM on the Yucatan Peninsula was relatively moist, and the presumed savannization of the landscape during the maximum cooling of the last glacial was not supported by our data. Our findings suggest alternative scenarios for plant diversification and genetic interchange during glacial times, and also indicate that vegetation in tropical continental settings was not as stable as previously thought.     

Late Quaternary biomes of Canada and the eastern United States

Pollen data have been used to construct biome maps for today, 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp and 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp for Canada and the eastern United States. The inferred modern biome distributions agree well with independent reconstructions of North American vegetation prior to European settlement. Some discrepancies between the pollen data and the modern potential vegetation are caused by post‐settlement clearing of the landscape and the consequent increase of herbaceous types in the recent pollen record. Biome distributions at 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp reflected the warmer and drier conditions then prevalent in the continental interior, but the overall position of biomes was similar to that of today. The boreal treeline in North America was not significantly north of its present position, in contrast to the 100–200 km shift reported for Siberia. At the last glacial maximum (18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp ), steppe and tundra were prevalent in the Midwest and north‐western Canada, and coniferous forests and woodlands grew in eastern North America. The open vegetation at 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp was probably due to drier conditions and/or lower concentrations of atmospheric CO₂. The composition and physical structure of biomes is not constant over time. Mid‐Holocene biomes were similar in structure to those of today, but shifts in the relative importance of individual plant functional types are large enough that the physical properties of biomes, such as albedo, canopy conductance and surface roughness, are likely to have varied even during the Holocene. Last glacial maximum biomes were structurally different from their modern counterparts. The biome maps therefore may obscure significant vegetational changes in space and time during the late Quaternary. The difference between the highest and next highest affinity scores for each sample measures how strongly affinity scores discriminate among biomes. For many biomes, the difference is not large, and affinity score ties are not uncommon, highlighting the importance of tie‐break procedures when using the biomization method.     

The biogeography of aquatic macrophytes in North America since the Last Glacial Maximum

Aim To document the post‐glacial migration of the major aquatic macrophytes of North America. Location North America north of Mexico. Methods Aquatic macrophyte pollen were extracted from the North American Pollen Database. The modern pollen distribution was mapped and related to the climate to document the geographical and climatic constraints on these taxa. The fossil pollen were mapped at 2‐ka intervals for the past 21 ka. Results Numerous genera were present in ice‐free Alaska during the Last Glacial Maximum, and south of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the southeast. Those taxa with the widest modern climatic ranges migrated rapidly into ice‐marginal areas, first in the west and then in the east of North America. Subsequent changes in the range and abundance were smaller. Main conclusions There were four migration routes of aquatic macrophytes during the late‐glacial and post‐glacial periods: a southward migration from Alaska between 14–13 and ka, a northern migration in the west at the same time into the ice‐free Cordilleran region, and movements east and west of Appalachia as early as 19 ka for some taxa into the lower Mississippi and into the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes by 11 ka. As the Laurentide ice sheet wasted, aquatic taxa with the broadest contemporary temperature tolerances rapidly occupied ice‐marginal environments.     

Assembly of Alaska‐Yukon boreal steppe communities: Testing biogeographic hypotheses via modern ecological distributions

Beringia (eastern Asia, Alaska, northwest Canada) has been a land‐bridge dispersal route between Asia and North America intermittently since the Mesozoic Era. The Quaternary, the most recent period of exchange, is characterized by large, geologically rapid climate fluctuations and sea‐level changes that alternately expose and inundate the land‐bridge region. Insights into how Quaternary land‐bridge geography has controlled species exchange and assembly of the North American flora comes from focusing on a restricted community with narrow ecological tolerances: species that are today restricted to isolated steppe habitats (dry grasslands) in the Subarctic. We evaluated (i) potential controls over current spatial distributions of steppe plants and their pollinators in Alaska and Yukon and (ii) their ecological distributions in relation to potential biogeographic histories. Taxa present in North America that are disjunct from Asia tended to have larger altitudinal ranges (tolerating colder temperatures) than taxa disjunct from farther south in North America, which were largely restricted to the warmest, lowest‐elevation sites. Ecological findings support the following biogeographic scenarios. Migration from Asia via the land‐bridge occurred during Quaternary glacial periods when conditions were colder and drier than today. While a corridor for migration of cold‐tolerant species of cold steppe and tundra, the land bridge acted as a filter that excluded warmth‐demanding species. Migration from North America occurred under warm, dry interglacial conditions; thermophilous North American disjuncts taking this route may have long histories in Beringia, or they may have migrated recently during the relatively warm and dry early Holocene, when forest cover was incomplete.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Net primary production, carbon storage and climate change in Chinese biomes

Net primary production (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) of Chinese biomes were simulated by BIOME3 under the present climate, and their responses to climate change and doubled CO₂ under a future climatic scenario using output from Hadley Center coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model with CO₂ modelled at 340 and 500 ppmv. The model estimated annual mean NPP of the biomes in China to be between 0 and 1270.7 gC m^‐2 yr^‐1 at present. The highest productivity was found in tropical seasonal and rain forests while temperate forests had an intermediate NPP, which is higher than a lower NPP of temperate savannas, grasslands and steppes. The lowest NPP occurred in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert in cold or arid regions, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. The lowest monthly NPP of each biome occurred generally in February and the highest monthly NPP occurred during the summer (June to August). The annual mean NPP and LAI of most of biomes at changed climate with CO₂ at 340 and 500 ppmv (direct effects on physiology) would be greater than present. The direct effects of carbon dioxide on plant physiology result in significant increase of LAI and NPP. The carbon storage of Chinese biomes at present and changed climates was calculated by the carbon density and vegetation area method. The present estimates of carbon storage are totally 175.83 × 10¹² gC (57.57 × 10¹² gC in vegetation and 118.28 × 10¹² gC in soils). Changed climate without and with the CO₂ direct physiological effects will result in an increase of carbon storage of 5.1 and 16.33 × 10¹², gC compared to present, respectively. The interaction between elevated CO₂ and climate change plays an important role in the overall responses of NPP and carbon to climate change.     

Multilocus phylogeography and population structure of common eiders breeding in North America and Scandinavia

Aim Glacial refugia during the Pleistocene had major impacts on the levels and spatial apportionment of genetic diversity of species in northern latitude ecosystems. We characterized patterns of population subdivision, and tested hypotheses associated with locations of potential Pleistocene refugia and the relative contribution of these refugia to the post‐glacial colonization of North America and Scandinavia by common eiders (Somateria mollissima). Specifically, we evaluated localities hypothesized as ice‐free areas or glacial refugia for other Arctic vertebrates, including Beringia, the High Arctic Canadian Archipelago, Newfoundland Bank, Spitsbergen Bank and north‐west Norway. Location Alaska, Canada, Norway and Sweden. Methods Molecular data from 12 microsatellite loci, the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, and two nuclear introns were collected and analysed for 15 populations of common eiders (n = 716) breeding throughout North America and Scandinavia. Population genetic structure, historical population fluctuations and gene flow were inferred using F‐statistics, analyses of molecular variance, and multilocus coalescent analyses. Results Significant inter‐population variation in allelic and haplotypic frequencies were observed (nuclear DNA F_ST = 0.004–0.290; mtDNA Φ_ST = 0.051–0.927). Whereas spatial differentiation in nuclear genes was concordant with subspecific designations, geographic proximity was more predictive of inter‐population variance in mitochondrial DNA haplotype frequency. Inferences of historical population demography were consistent with restriction of common eiders to four geographic areas during the Last Glacial Maximum: Belcher Islands, Newfoundland Bank, northern Alaska and Svalbard. Three of these areas coincide with previously identified glacial refugia: Newfoundland Bank, Beringia and Spitsbergen Bank. Gene‐flow and clustering analyses indicated that the Beringian refugium contributed little to common eider post‐glacial colonization of North America, whereas Canadian, Scandinavian and southern Alaskan post‐glacial colonization is likely to have occurred in a stepwise fashion from the same glacial refugium. Main conclusions Concordance of proposed glacial refugia used by common eiders and other Arctic species indicates that Arctic and subarctic refugia were important reservoirs of genetic diversity during the Pleistocene. Furthermore, suture zones identified at MacKenzie River, western Alaska/Aleutians and Scandinavia coincide with those identified for other Arctic vertebrates, suggesting that these regions were strong geographic barriers limiting dispersal from Pleistocene refugia.     

No‐analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st‐century predictions by species distribution models

Empirically derived species distributions models (SDMs) are increasingly relied upon to forecast species vulnerabilities to future climate change. However, many of the assumptions of SDMs may be violated when they are used to project species distributions across significant climate change events. In particular, SDM's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but in practice, they assume stable realized niches. The assumption of a fixed realized niche relative to climate variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel future climates open up currently unavailable portions of species’ fundamental niches. To demonstrate this effect, we compare the climate distributions for fossil‐pollen data from 21 to 15 ka bp (relying on paleoclimate simulations) when communities and climates with no modern analog were common across North America to observed modern pollen assemblages. We test how well SDMs are able to project 20th century pollen‐based taxon distributions with models calibrated using data from 21 to 15 ka. We find that taxa which were abundant in areas with no‐analog late glacial climates, such as Fraxinus, Ostrya/Carpinus and Ulmus, substantially shifted their realized niches from the late glacial period to present. SDMs for these taxa had low predictive accuracy when projected to modern climates despite demonstrating high predictive accuracy for late glacial pollen distributions. For other taxa, e.g. Quercus, Picea, Pinus strobus, had relatively stable realized niches and models for these taxa tended to have higher predictive accuracy when projected to present. Our findings reinforce the point that a realized niche at any one time often represents only a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist. Projections from SDMs into future climate conditions that are based solely on contemporary realized distributions are potentially misleading for assessing the vulnerability of species to future climate change.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

The role of disjunction and postglacial population expansion on phylogeographical history and genetic diversity of the circumboreal plant Chamaedaphne calyculata

In the last decade a number of studies has illustrated quite different phylogeographical patterns amongst plants with a northern present‐day geographical distribution, spanning the entire circumboreal region and/or circumarctic region and southern mountains. These works, employing several marker systems, have brought to light the complex evolutionary histories of this group. Here I focus on one circumboreal plant species, Chamaedaphne calyculata (leatherleaf), to unravel its phylogeographical history and patterns of genetic diversity across its geographical range. A survey of 29 populations with combined analyses of chloroplast DNA (cpDNA), internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and AFLP markers revealed structuring into two groups: Eurasian/north‐western North American, and north‐eastern North American. The present geographical distribution of C. calyculata has resulted from colonization from two putative refugial areas: east Beringia and south‐eastern North America. The variation of chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and ITS sequences strongly indicated that the evolutionary histories of the Eurasian/north‐western North American and the north‐eastern North American populations were independent of each other because of a geographical disjunction in the distribution area and ice‐sheet history between north‐eastern and north‐western North America. Mismatch analysis using ITS confirmed that the present‐day population structure is the result of rapid expansion, probably since the last glacial maximum. The AFLP data revealed low genetic diversity of C. calyculata (P = 19.5%, H = 0.085) over the whole geographical range, and there was no evidence of loss of genetic diversity within populations in the continuous range, either at the margins or in formerly glaciated and nonglaciated regions. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 761–775.     

Phylogeographic analysis of North American populations of the parasitic herbaceous plant Monotropa hypopitys L. reveals a complex history of range expansion from multiple late glacial refugia

Aim We carried out a phylogeographic study across the range of the herbaceous plant species Monotropa hypopitys L. in North America to determine whether its current disjunct distribution is due to recolonization from separate eastern and western refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location North America: Pacific Northwest and north‐eastern USA/south‐eastern Canada. Methods Palaeodistribution modelling was carried out to determine suitable climatic regions for M. hypopitys at the LGM. We analysed between 155 and 176 individuals from 39 locations spanning the species’ entire range in North America. Sequence data were obtained for the chloroplast rps2 gene (n = 168) and for the nuclear ITS region (n = 158). Individuals were also genotyped for eight microsatellite loci (n = 176). Interpolation of diversity values was used to visualize the range‐wide distribution of genetic diversity for each of the three marker classes. Minimum spanning networks were constructed showing the relationships between the rps2 and ITS haplotypes, and the geographical distributions of these haplotypes were plotted. The numbers of genetic clusters based on the microsatellite data were estimated using Bayesian clustering approaches. Results The palaeodistribution modelling indicated suitable climate envelopes for M. hypopitys at the LGM in both the Pacific Northwest and south‐eastern USA. High levels of genetic diversity and endemic haplotypes were found in Oregon, the Alexander Archipelago, Wisconsin, and in the south‐eastern part of the species’ distribution range. Main conclusions Our results suggest a complex recolonization history for M. hypopitys in North America, involving persistence in separate eastern and western refugia. A generally high degree of congruence between the different marker classes analysed indicated the presence of multiple refugia, with at least two refugia in each area. In the west, putative refugia were identified in Oregon and the Alexander Archipelago, whereas eastern refugia may have been located in the southern part of the species’ current distribution, as well as in the ‘Driftless Area’. These findings are in contrast to a previous study on the related species Orthilia secunda, which has a similar disjunct distribution to M. hypopitys, but which appears to have recolonized solely from western refugia.     

Postglacial northward expansion and genetic differentiation between migratory and sedentary populations of the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus)

Unlike other migratory hummingbirds in North America, the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) exhibits both long‐distance migratory behaviour in the USA and sedentary behaviour in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the evolution of migration linked to its northward expansion using a multiperspective approach. We analysed variation in morphology, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, estimated migration rates between migratory and sedentary populations, compared divergence times with the occurrence of Quaternary climate events and constructed species distribution models to predict where migratory and sedentary populations resided during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) events. Our results are consistent with a recent northward population expansion driven by migration from southern sedentary populations. Phylogeographical analyses and population genetics methods revealed that migratory populations in the USA and sedentary populations in Mexico of the platycercus subspecies form one admixed population, and that sedentary populations from southern Mexico and Guatemala (guatemalae) undertook independent evolutionary trajectories. Species distribution modelling revealed that the species is a niche tracker and that the climate conditions associated with modern obligate migrants in the USA were not present during the LIG, which provides indirect evidence for recent migratory behaviour in broad‐tailed hummingbirds on the temporal scale of glacial cycles. The finding that platycercus hummingbirds form one genetic population and that suitable habitat for migratory populations was observed in eastern Mexico during the LIG also suggests that the conservation of overwintering sites is crucial for obligate migratory populations currently facing climate change effects.     

Climate change and evolution of the New World pitviper genus Agkistrodon (Viperidae)

Aim We derived phylogenies, phylogeographies, and population demographies for two North American pitvipers, Agkistrodon contortrix (Linnaeus, 1766) and A. piscivorus (Lacépède, 1789) (Viperidae: Crotalinae), as a mechanism to evaluate the impact of rapid climatic change on these taxa. Location Midwestern and eastern North America. Methods We reconstructed maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML) relationships based on 846 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) ATPase 8 and ATPase 6 genes sequenced over 178 individuals. We quantified range expansions, demographic histories, divergence dates and potential size differences among clades since their last period of rapid expansion. We used the Shimodaira–Hasegawa (SH) test to compare our ML tree against three biogeographical hypotheses. Results A significant SH test supported diversification of A. contortrix from northeastern Mexico into midwestern–eastern North America, where its trajectory was sundered by two vicariant events. The first (c. 5.1 Ma) segregated clades at 3.1% sequence divergence (SD) along a continental east–west moisture gradient. The second (c. 1.4 Ma) segregated clades at 2.4% SD along the Mississippi River, coincident with the formation of the modern Ohio River as a major meltwater tributary. A single glacial refugium was detected within the Apalachicola region of southeastern North America. Significant support was also found for a hypothesis of trans‐Gulf rafting by the common ancestor of A. piscivorus from eastern Mexico (possibly the Yucatan Peninsula) to northern Florida. There, a Mid–Late Pliocene marine transgression separated it at 4.8% SD from mainland North America. Significant range expansions followed compressive glacial effects in three (of four) A. contortrix clades and in two (of three) A. piscivorus clades, with the Florida A. piscivorus clade exhibiting significant distributional stasis. Main conclusions Pliocene glaciations, rapidly developing western aridity, and Pleistocene glacial meltwaters seemingly led to the diversification of A. contortrix and A. piscivorus in North America. Both species were pushed southwards by Pleistocene climate change, with subsequent northward expansions uninhibited topographically. The subspecific taxonomy used for A. contortrix and A. piscivorus today, however, appear non‐representative. The monophyletic Florida subspecies of A. piscivorus may be a distinct species (at 4.8% SD), whereas two western subspecies of A. contortrix also appear to constitute a single distinct species, pending additional analyses. We conclude that both species of Agkistrodon can be used as suitable ectothermic models to gauge impacts of future climate change.