The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

Marrow fat content, sex and age of red deer killed by wolves in winter in the Carpathian Mountains

Age, sex and legbone marrow fat content of 90 red deer Cervus elaphus killed by wolves Canis lupus in winter in southeastern Poland were examined 1984–1988. The majority of kills were calves (44%) and hinds (40%); stags formed only 16%. The average age of hinds was 7.2 yr compared to 5.3 yr in stags. Animals older than 10 yr comprised only 13% of prey. Adults showed high femoral fat content (> 80%) throughout the winter (76% in early winter and 52% in late winter). Among calves femur marrow fat varied through the winter. In early winter 70% of calves had a high fat content (> 80%), though by late winter only 20% had such a high fat content, whilst 43% had low fat content (< 20%).     

Genotype by environment interactions in winter survival in red deer

1. The extent to which environmental heterogeneity interacts with genetic hetero geneity to affect individual fitness within populations has the potential to affect the dynamics of natural populations and the amount of genetic variation maintained in natural populations, yet is a relatively poorly investigated topic in either ecology or evolutionary biology.
2. Many individual-based studies are precluded from such investigations by the practical problems of measuring heritability of traits affecting fitness and the difficulties of experimental manipulation of the study population. One way of demonstrating how commonly genotype by environmental interactions affect fitness, though not their overall importance in determining fitness, is to investigate fitness in a population subdivided by genotype at one or more marker loci.
3. We analyse data on calf winter survival from a population of red deer from the Isle of Rum, Scotland. Data on individual survival, environmental fluctuations and genotype at 13 loci were collected from 1982 to 1994.
4. We found associations between survival over the first winter of life and calf genotype at two out of three allozyme loci and five out of 10 microsatellite loci. All of the results remained significant under randomization tests. Other genotypes that initially appeared to have an association with survival were rejected when bootstrapped, usually due to insufficient data or anomalies in the data.
5. Our results suggest that associations between fitness and genotype are common. Five out of the seven associations found involved interactions with environmental variables. Four of these showed density-dependent selection with different genotypes showing high survival at high population size compared to low population size and one interacted with autumn rainfall. In a sixth case, genotype interacted with sex.     

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.     

Short- and long-term effects of winter and spring weather on growth and survival of red deer in Norway

Populations of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway have increased continuously over the last decades. We tested the possible effects of climate and increase in population size on the survival rates and body condition of individuals in one of the northernmost populations of red deer in Europe. Based on 678 individuals of known age marked between 1977 and 1995, we estimated annual survival rates, the probabilities of being harvested and the recapture probability according to sex, age, year, winter and spring weather, population size, and, body weight and body condition, using capture-mark-recapture models. Winter harshness negatively influenced the body weight of yearlings and the survival of calves of both sexes. Spring weather influenced the survival of males in all age classes. A negative trend during the study period was detected in body weight and condition of calves and yearlings, but not in any age- or sex- specific survival rates. No significant gender differences in mean survival were shown in any age class. Moreover, there was little (male) or no (female) detectable between-year variation in survival rates for yearlings and adults. Winter weather acts as a limiting factor on population growth through a short-term effect on first-year survival and a long-term effect on body weight. We discuss the surprising low sex differences in natural survival rates and the differential effects of winter harshness on body weight, body condition and survival in relation to life history characteristics of red deer. Received: 10 November 1997 / Accepted: 2 June 1998     

Constraints on plastic responses to climate variation in red deer

Influences of climate on life history traits in natural populations are well documented. However, the implications of between-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity underlying observed trait-environment relationships are rarely considered due to the large, long-term datasets required for such analysis. Studies typically present correlations of annual trait means with climate or assume that individual phenotypic responses are constant. Here, we examine this additional level of variation and show that, in a red deer population on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, changes in climate generate changes in phenotype only amongst individuals who have experienced favourable ecological conditions. Examination of relationships between offspring birth weight and spring temperature within the lifetimes of individual females revealed that the tendency to respond to climate declined as the population density experienced early in life increased. The presence of such systematic variation in individual plasticity is rarely documented in the wild, and has important implications for our understanding of the environmental dependencies of traits under varying ecological conditions.     

Great expectations: dominance,breeding success and offspring sex ratios in red deer

Differences in dominance rank among red deer (Cervus elaphus) females (hinds) on Rhum were related to their breeding success as well as to the comparative success of male and female offspring. Males (stags) born to mothers above median rank were more successful than hinds, while hinds born to subordinate mothers were more successful than stags. The ratio of male to female calves produced by dominant mothers was significantly higher than that produced by subordinates. Since dominance rank among hinds is related to their body weight as adults and to their birth weight, these results suggest that the birth sex ratio may be affected by environmental factors operating during a female's early development.     

Moose body mass variation revisited: disentangling effects of environmental conditions and genetics

Large-scale geographical variation in phenotypic traits within species is often correlated to local environmental conditions and population density. Such phenotypic variation has recently been shown to also be influenced by genetic structuring of populations. In ungulates, large-scale geographical variation in phenotypic traits, such as body mass, has been related to environmental conditions and population density, but little is known about the genetic influences. Research on the genetic structure of moose suggests two distinct genetic lineages in Norway, structured along a north-south gradient. This corresponds with many environmental gradients, thus genetic structuring provides an additional factor affecting geographical phenotypic variation in Norwegian moose. We investigated if genetic structure explained geographical variation in body mass in Norwegian moose while accounting for environmental conditions, age and sex, and if it captured some of the variance in body mass that previously was attributed to environmental factors. Genetic structuring of moose was the most important variable in explaining the geographic variation in body mass within age and sex classes. Several environmental variables also had strong explanatory power, related to habitat diversity, environmental seasonality and winter harshness. The results suggest that environmental conditions, landscape characteristics, and genetic structure should be evaluated together when explaining large-scale patterns in phenotypic characters or life history traits. However, to better understand the role of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic traits in moose, an extended individual-based study of variation in fitness-related characters is needed, preferably in an area of convergence between different genetic lineages.     

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution.     

Global climate change and phenotypic variation among red deer cohorts.

The variability of two fitness-related phenotypic traits (body weight and a mandibular skeletal ratio) was analysed among cohorts and age-classes of red deer in Norway. Phenotypic variation among cohorts was pronounced for calves, yearlings and reproductively mature adults. Fluctuations in cohort-specific mean body weights and skeletal ratios of adults correlated with global climatic variation in winter conditions influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation while cohorts were in utero. Red deer born following warm winters were smaller than those born after cold winters, and this inter-cohort variability persisted into adulthood. Phenotypic variation among cohorts of red deer influenced by climate change may pose consequences for fitness of cohorts since body size and condition contribute to reproductive success and survival in male and female red deer. In particular, the recent trend of increasingly warm winters in northern Europe and Scandinavia may lead to reduced body size and fecundity of red deer, and perhaps other ungulates, in those areas.     

Body size divergence in nine‐spined sticklebacks: disentangling additive genetic and maternal effects

Interpopulation differences in body size are of common occurrence in vertebrates, but the relative importance of genetic, maternal, and environmental effects as causes of observed differentiation have seldom been assessed in the wild. Gigantism in pond nine‐spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius Linnaeus, 1758) has been repeatedly observed, but the quantitative genetic basis of population divergence in size has remained unstudied. We conducted a common garden experiment – using ‘pure’ and reciprocal crosses between two populations (‘giant’ pond versus ‘normal’ marine) – to test for the relative importance of additive genetic, non‐additive genetic, and maternal effects on body size after 11 months of growth in the laboratory. We found that body size difference between the two populations in laboratory conditions owed mainly to additive genetic effects, and only to a minor degree to maternal effects. Furthermore, the weak maternal effects were seen only in the offspring of ‘giant’ mothers, and appeared to be mediated through differences in egg size. Thus, the results suggest that gigantism in pond populations of P. pungitius is based on the effects of additively acting genes, rather than to direct environmental induction, or maternal or non‐additive gene action. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 107 , 521–528.     

Effects of density, climate, and supplementary forage on body mass and pregnancy rates of female red deer in Spain

The influence of short- and long-term (cohort) effects of climate and density on the life-histories of ungulates in temperate regions may vary with latitude, habitat, and management practices, but the life-histories of ungulates in the Mediterranean region are less well known. This study examined the short- and long-term effects of rainfall and absolute density on hinds in two of the southernmost populations of red deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) in Europe. One population received supplementary forage. Unlike more northerly latitudes, where red deer hinds lose body mass in winter as a result of adverse weather, in the Spanish populations, hinds did not lose body mass. Hinds in the population that received supplementary forage were heavier and more likely to become pregnant than were the hinds in the unsupplemented population. The likelihood of pregnancy occurring was strongly influenced by hind body mass; the proportion of yearlings that became pregnant was consequently lower in the unsupplemented population than in the population that received supplementary forage. Cohort effects on hind body mass (negative for density and positive for rainfall at birth) and on the probability of pregnancy (negative for density at birth) were apparent only in the unsupplemented population, which implies that supplemental feeding may partially compensate for negative density-dependent factors during early growth, and that supplemented deer hinds may experience reduced selection pressures. These results reflect the particular seasonal variation in the abundance and quality of food in Mediterranean habitats. The delayed effects of climate and density at birth on adult hind body mass and the prevalence of pregnancy probably affects population dynamics and constitutes a mechanism by which cohort effects affect the population dynamics in Iberian red deer. The management of Iberian red deer populations should take into account cohort effects and supplemental feeding practices, which can buffer density- and climate-dependent effects and reduce natural selection pressures.     

Influence of level of nutrition during late pregnancy on reproductive productivity of red deer I. Adult and primiparous hinds gestating red deer calves

The present study aimed to relate feed intake of red deer hinds during late pregnancy to dam body condition, foetal development and calf growth. Across 3 years, multiparous (n=33) or primiparous (n=18) hinds with known conception dates were housed in individual pens from days 150-220 of pregnancy, during which time they were each offered one of three daily allowances of pelletised rations (11 MJME/kg DM; 16% CP): high (H; ad libitum), medium (M; approximately 30% less; multiparous hinds only) and low (L; approximately 50% less). Restricted intake levels were retrospectively calculated from the mean intake of H hinds in the previous week. Hinds were returned to pasture at day 220 and calving was closely monitored. Liveweights, body condition score (BCS), and lactation score (LS) of hinds were recorded weekly from day 130 of pregnancy until calves were weaned at 12 weeks of age. Calves were tagged and weighed at birth, and subsequently weighed at 7 and 12 weeks of age. Additionally, hinds in the first year of study underwent CT scans on days 150 and 215 of pregnancy to assess compositional changes of the dam and conceptus. Mean daily ad libitum intakes of H hinds increased from 1.8 to 2.0 kg DM (0.6-0.7 MJME/kg0.75) at around day 150 to 2.8-3.2 kg DM (0.8-0.9 MJME/kg0.75) by day 220. Those of M and L hinds peaked at 1.8 and 1.6 kg DM, respectively, by day 220. This was reflected in significant treatment effects on liveweight gain and change in BCS and LS by the time of calving. CT scans indicated a significant treatment effect by day 215 on the mass of hind tissues (fat and lean) and a non-significant trend on conceptus/foetal weights. Despite apparent differences in foetal growth trajectories, there were no discernable treatment effects on sex-adjusted birth weights. However, there was an unexpectedly wide spread in calving dates that reflected considerable variation in gestation length. Furthermore, gestation length was negatively correlated with change in hind liveweight (but not BCS) between days 150 and 220 of pregnancy for all groups of hinds (P<0.05). Of three neonatal calf mortalities, none were related to overweight (dystocia) or underweight (non-viability) calves. Subsequent growth rates (g/day) of surviving calves did not reflect prior treatment of their dams, although variation in birth date influenced weights on specific dates. It is concluded from this study that while variation in nutrition to hinds during the last trimester may strongly influence foetal development, under conditions of modest feed imbalance, variation in gestation length compensates to ensure optimisation of birth weight.     

Fast and efficient DNA-based method for winter diet analysis from stools of three cervids: moose, red deer, and roe deer

Effects of cervid browsing on timber production, especially during winter, lead to economic losses in forest management. The aim of this study was to present an efficient DNA-based method which allows qualitative assessment of the winter diet from stools of moose (Alces alces), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and red deer (Cervus elaphus). The preliminary results of the diet composition of the three cervids from Poland were also presented with a special emphasis on moose. The electropherograms of the chloroplast intron trnL (UAA) P6 loop amplification products using g (fluorescence-labeled) and h primers revealed differences in the length of PCR products among various plant species eaten by these herbivores. In addition, the usage of species-specific primers allowed unambiguous identification of different gymnosperms and angiosperms. The preliminary moose diet analysis, based on winter fecal samples from the entire range of moose occurrence in Poland, revealed the presence of 15 to 24 tree, shrub, and herbaceous species. This fast, cost-efficient, and simple method proved also to be reliable for the diet analysis of red deer and roe deer. It may be a valuable tool in forest and conservation management, as well as a way of enhancing ecological studies focusing on the impact of herbivores on the ecosystems and their possible food niche overlap.     

Body mass index and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a meta-analysis

Background

The association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality in patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been a subject of interest for decades. However, the evidence is inadequate to draw robust conclusions because some studies were generally small or with a short follow-up.

Methods

We carried out a search in MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and EMBASE database for relevant studies. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to assess the association between BMI and mortality in patients with COPD. In addition, a baseline risk-adjusted analysis was performed to investigate the strength of this association.

Results

22 studies comprising 21,150 participants were included in this analysis. Compared with patients having a normal BMI, underweight individuals were associated with higher mortality (RR  = 1.34, 95% CI  = 1.01–1.78), whereas overweight (RR  = 0.47, 95% CI  = 0.33–0.68) and obese (RR  = 0.59, 95% CI  = 0.38–0.91) patients were associated with lower mortality. We further performed a baseline risk-adjusted analysis and obtained statistically similar results.

Conclusion

Our study showed that for patients with COPD being overweight or obese had a protective effect against mortality. However, the relationship between BMI and mortality in different classes of obesity needed further clarification in well-designed clinical studies.     

No evidence of juvenile body mass affecting dispersal in male red deer

Dispersal is an important mechanism in population dynamics with a sparse empirical basis. Environmental causes of dispersal may work directly or indirectly. In a population with documented negative density-dependent male dispersal, we investigated if the effect of density on dispersal was indirectly mediated through body mass. We analysed the probability of dispersal in 170 juvenile red deer males in Snillfjord municipality, Norway, during a 20-year period of rapid population growth (1977–1997). Body mass and dispersal propensity were not related. Thus, changes in population density act directly on dispersal and are not affected by body mass. Body mass-dependent dispersal occurs in species with strong antagonistic interactions and a high cost of dispersal. Our result suggests that the cost of dispersal in male red deer is low in terms of energy expenditure and survival. We conclude that the effect of body mass on dispersal is likely to vary with mating system and cost of dispersal.     

Effects of management at weaning on behaviour and weight gain of farmed red deer calves

Two studies were performed to determine whether there were behavioural or productive differences arising from two contrasting weaning practices for red deer; proximate vs. distant separation of dams and calves. In Experiment 1, 80 calves across two replicates were used. For each replicate, calves were separated from their mothers, weighed and allocated to one of two treatments (n=20 calves), either confinement in an unfamiliar paddock 100 m from their mothers for 2 weeks following weaning (treatment N), or transportation 2 km to a different farm (treatment F). Groups were observed during the following 6 days and weighed 14 days after weaning. In Experiment 2, the same procedure was performed out on two commercial farms, but using 40 calves per treatment group, without replication or weight recording. In Experiment 1 running, fenceline pacing and vocalising declined following weaning, with steeper declines for F than N calves for running and vocalising (P<0.01). Similar trends, with an indication of less vocalising and movement overall, were seen in Experiment 2. In contrast, mean post-weaning weight gains for N calves were higher than for F calves (3.0 compared with 2.4 kg, SED 0.48 kg; P<0.05). Weather variables (cloud, temperature and wind) were associated with behaviour in both studies (P<0.05), with a trend for pacing, calling and running to increase as conditions deteriorated (cloud cover and wind speed increased, and temperature decreased). It was concluded that distant separation appeared beneficial to the calves but more research was required to determine optimal weaning management. The study supported previous evidence that weaning should be carried out in good weather.     

Body and organ mass in agouti and non-agouti deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus).

Body, adrenal, brain, heart, liver, kidney, spleen and testis masses were determined for agouti and non-agouti deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus gracilis) of both sexes. Body mass was highest for non-agouti females and lowest for agouti females; and sex differences in body mass were significant for agouti, but not non-agouti, deer mice. Adrenal, brain and liver masses were similar between color morphs; heart mass was greater in agouti males; and kidney, spleen and testis masses were all significantly greater for non-agouti deer mice. Splenomegaly in non-agouti deer mice was prominent, as spleens of non-agouti deer mice were 50% larger than those of agouti animals. Sex differences varied across organs and color morphs. For both color morphs, males had heavier adrenals and brains, whereas females had heavier livers and spleens. Kidney and heart mass was greater for female non-agouti deer mice, but for agouti animals, heart mass was greater in males and kidney mass differed little between the sexes. For both color morphs, testes and spleen mass was altered by photoperiod in 72 deer mice housed under short- or long-day conditions and the effect was stronger in non-agouti animals. This is the first report of splenomegaly and sex-specific body mass differences associated with the non-agouti allele.