城市水资源生态足迹核算模型及应用——以沈阳市为例

水资源生态足迹可以直接反映区域人类社会经济活动对水资源的压力.本研究在现有的生态足迹模型基础上,充分考虑城市自然生态系统对水资源的需求,建立了包括居民日常生活用水、生产运营用水、公共服务用水和生态需水4类帐户的城市水资源生态足迹核算模型,并结合沈阳市实际情况,确定了模型中的相关参数,对沈阳市水资源生态足迹和生态承载力进行分析.结果表明:2000-2009年,沈阳市人均水资源生态足迹总体呈下降态势,但各年度均为水生态赤字;2005年较2000年水资源生态足迹人均下降0.31 hm2,2006、2007年有小幅回升,2008、2009年趋于平稳,说明沈阳市水资源可持续利用状况有一定改善,但仍处于不可持续状态.     

基于气候适宜度的东北地区春玉米发育期模拟模型

以春玉米的生理生态发育过程为基础,基于作物生理发育时间恒定原理,建立了可推广应用的作物发育期模拟模型.本文充分考虑光、温、水对作物生育进程的综合影响,设计了基于气候适宜度来动态确定作物生理发育日数的算法,为模型的大范围推广应用奠定了基础.利用东北地区农业气象站2009、2010年观测资料对模型进行了分析和验证,模型运行结果与实际观测情况比较吻合,全生育期的均方根误差(root mean square error,简称RMSE)为3.8d,营养生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.84以上,生殖生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.77以上.模型生物学意义明确、精度较高、数据易获、可操作性强,能够在农业气象业务服务中应用于玉米生育进程的模拟与预测.     

A hydraulic-photosynthetic model based on extended HLH and its application to Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens)

Although recent investigations [Ryan, M.G., Yoder, B.J., 1997. Hydraulic limits to tree height and tree growth. Bioscience 47, 235-242; Koch, G.W., Sillett, S.C.,Jennings, G.M.,Davis, S.D., 2004. The limits to tree height. Nature 428, 851-854; Niklas, K.J., Spatz, H., 2004. Growth and hydraulic (not mechanical) constraints govern the scaling of tree height and mass. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101, 15661-15663; Ryan, M.G., Phillips, N., Bond, B.J., 2006. Hydraulic limitation hypothesis revisited. Plant Cell Environ. 29, 367-381; Niklas, K.J., 2007. Maximum plant height and the biophysical factors that limit it. Tree Physiol. 27, 433-440; Burgess, S.S.O., Dawson, T.E., 2007. Predicting the limits to tree height using statistical regressions of leaf traits. New Phytol. 174, 626-636] suggested that the hydraulic limitation hypothesis (HLH) is the most plausible theory to explain the biophysical limits to maximum tree height and the decline in tree growth rate with age, the analysis is largely qualitative or based on statistical regression. Here we present an integrated biophysical model based on the principle that trees develop physiological compensations (e.g. the declined leaf water potential and the tapering of conduits with heights [West, G.B., Brown, J.H., Enquist, B.J., 1999. A general model for the structure and allometry of plant vascular systems. Nature 400, 664-667]) to resist the increasing water stress with height, the classical HLH and the biochemical limitations on photosynthesis [von Caemmerer, S., 2000. Biochemical Models of Leaf Photosynthesis. CSIRO Publishing, Australia]. The model has been applied to the tallest trees in the world (viz. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens)). Xylem water potential, leaf carbon isotope composition, leaf mass to area ratio at different heights derived from the model show good agreements with the experimental measurements of Koch et al. [2004. The limits to tree height. Nature 428, 851-854]. The model also well explains the universal trend of declining growth rate with age.     

林带疏透度模型及其应用

在应用数字图象处理法测定东北西部典型杨树林带疏透度的基础上,采用逐步回归分析和推理方法分别构筑了疏透度与林带结构因子相关的主导因子模型和因配置方式和树种而异的机理模型,并阐述了两种模型在林带结构调控中的作用．     

作物生产力模型及其应用研究

从农业生态环境的角度论述了作物生产力模型的产生背景,讨论了作物生产力模型发展的幼年期、少年期、青年期和成熟期4个阶段,从科学研究,农业作物管理和农业决策分析等方面论述了作物生产力模型在保护农业生态环境中的作用,讨论了作物生产力模型的不足之处主要为简单的模型的地区适应性不强,而复杂的模型则由于参数的难以获取,且不同研究区域基础数据格式的一致性问题,也导致模型的地区适应性比较弱,因而提出要建立通用,统一的数据格式,以使作物生产力模型在不同地区易于推广应用;最后针对作物生产力模型普遍适应性能比较弱的问题,对作物生产力模型与地理信息系统的结合进行了研究,并综述了目前在作物生产力模型的界面友好化方面的一些工作,提出建立通用的作物生产力模型界面是今后发展的重点所在。     

Logistic回归模型及其在昆虫学中的应用

介绍了应用Logistic回归分析对二值反应的试验数据进行分析的方法 ,以及Logistic回归分析模型参数估计及其统计检验的方法 ,并结合 1个实际例子说明了Logistic回归模型的应用。     

Spatiotemporal analysis of ground-based woody plant leafing in response to temperature in temperate eastern China

The analysis of woody plant leafing in response to regional-scale temperature variation using ground-based phenology is usually limited by the sparse coverage and missing data of ground observation. In this study, a station-based multispecies method was proposed to generate spatiotemporal variation of woody plant leafing date using ground observations from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network during 1974–1996. The results show that the leafing date had slightly insignificant advance (?0.56 day decade^?1), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index could explain 36 % variance of the spring leafing date anomaly. The leafing date had been substantially delayed (4 days) when AO shifted from an extreme high index state (2) in 1989–1990 to a relatively low state (0.1) in 1991–1996. The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to demonstrate the temporal evolutions and spatial structures of interannual variations of the spring temperature and leafing date anomalies. The three CCA spatial patterns of leafing date anomaly are similar to those of spring temperature anomaly. The first spatial pattern shows ubiquitous warming, which is consistent with the ubiquitous advance in leafing date across the study area. The second and third spatial patterns present the regional differences featured by advanced (delayed) leafing associated with high (low) temperature. The results suggest that the spring leafing date anomaly is spatiotemporally coherent with the regional-scale temperature variations. Although we focus here on woody plant leafing in a historical period in temperate eastern China, our station-based multispecies method may be applicable to analysis of the ground-based phenology in response to regional-scale climatic variation in other regions.     

辽宁省城市热岛强度特征及等级划分

根据气象站资料累积时间、资料连续性、站点位置、城郊站间距离、站点数量、迁站情况,对辽宁省61个气象站进行筛选,并利用选出的城郊代表站的月和年气温数据,分析了辽宁省热岛强度的变化范围及幅度,确定了热岛强度等级.结果表明:辽宁省铁岭站、大连站、鞍山站、朝阳站、丹东站、锦州站6个气象站可作为城市气温的代表站,台安站等18个气象站可作为郊区气温的代表站;1980-2009年,辽宁省6个代表城市的热岛强度年变化不同,除铁岭为微弱下降外,其他5市均表现为上升趋势,铁岭年热岛强度较强,大连年热岛强度较弱;6个代表城市的月热岛强度变化也不同,丹东、锦州、铁岭的月热岛强度呈明显的“U”型分布,6市最大热岛强度均出现在1月,最小热岛强度均出现在5-8月,具有冬季强、夏季弱的特点.6市热岛强度的年、月变化范围分别为0.57～2.15℃和-0.70～4.60℃,年和月热岛强度分别有97.8％和72.3％集中在0.5～2.0℃.辽宁省热岛强度可划分为无、弱、强和极强4个等级.     

Time to pregnancy--a model and its application

Biological fertility is poorly measured by the number of children born in industrially advanced societies. The time elapsing from when a couple decides to have a child to clinically recognizable pregnancy is a useful alternative. Time to pregnancy can be collected in broad categories in large samples. A model for condensing important information from such data is presented, which fits several large samples of reported waiting times. It is shown that multiparous women conceive more quickly than primiparous women.     

基于CA-Markov模型和多目标优化的大连市土地利用格局

运用马尔科夫转移矩阵、多准则评估以及元胞自动机耦合的CA-Markov模型,基于1990、2000、2010年土地利用图、地形因子和地理要素等,模拟大连市未来土地利用景观格局变化趋势.基于大连市土地利用结构、经济社会、自然环境等特点,结合大连市城市总体规划和土地利用规划,建立经济、社会、环境3个目标导向的模糊多目标优化模型,优化配置了大连市未来土地利用格局.结果表明:1990-2010年,大连的快速发展呈现出建设用地持续扩张而耕地、林地面积缩小的特点,以现有城市化速度发展,到2020年大连市景观格局土地覆盖将发生很大变化,景观破碎化程度将加剧.优化调整土地利用数量结构,能满足未来大连可持续发展的要求.     

沈阳城市森林凋落物数量及动态

在沈阳城市森林中设置20个样点,2005-2007年连续3年进行了森林凋落物数量和动态的观测.结果表明:研究期间,20个1 m2凋落物收集器中共收集30种树种凋落叶,占研究区树种的15.5％,种群个体数量和叶面积分别占研究区内树木的63.8％和69.9％.叶凋落量与该树种的叶面积呈显著正相关.不同树种的叶片凋落开始时间相差很大,落叶开始时间早的树种,落叶结束时间也提前.落叶开始时间与落叶持续时间和落叶结束时间极显著相关.年平均凋落量为4229.0 kg· hm-2,其中叶、枝和花果的凋落量分别占总凋落量的80.3％、11.0％和8.7％.凋落物的季节变化呈单峰型曲线,10月达到最大值,约占总凋落量的50.0％.大量凋落物为城市森林提供了营养物质和能量.     

A new fitness function and its application on a five locus model

Summary A new fitness function is proposed. It is a balance function which results from a combination of a turnover function defining the expression of favourable genetic factors and a cost function describing the costs of metabolism. A favourable genetic factor is defined as the heterozygote state at a locus. Five loci with two alleles each are considered. In computer simulations various kinds of this function are investigated. Their influence on the genetic composition of a population in equilibrium, the number and types of equilibria and the mean fitness are reported. Free recombination and tight linkage are considered.     

A model for one-dimensional morphoelasticity and its application to fibroblast-populated collagen lattices

The mechanical behaviour of solid biological tissues has long been described using models based on classical continuum mechanics. However, the classical continuum theories of elasticity and viscoelasticity cannot easily capture the continual remodelling and associated structural changes in biological tissues. Furthermore, models drawn from plasticity theory are difficult to apply and interpret in this context, where there is no equivalent of a yield stress or flow rule. In this work, we describe a novel one-dimensional mathematical model of tissue remodelling based on the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient. We express the mechanical effects of remodelling as an evolution equation for the effective strain, a measure of the difference between the current state and a hypothetical mechanically relaxed state of the tissue. This morphoelastic model combines the simplicity and interpretability of classical viscoelastic models with the versatility of plasticity theory. A novel feature of our model is that while most models describe growth as a continuous quantity, here we begin with discrete cells and develop a continuum representation of lattice remodelling based on an appropriate limit of the behaviour of discrete cells. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we use this framework to capture qualitative aspects of the continual remodelling observed in fibroblast-populated collagen lattices, in particular its contraction and its subsequent sudden re-expansion when remodelling is interrupted.     

A model for slow axonal transport and its application to neurofilamentous neuropathies

A model for slow axonal transport is developed in which the essential features are reversible binding of cytoskeletal elements and of soluble cytosolic proteins to each other and to motile elements such as actin microfilaments. Computer simulation of the equations of the model demonstrate that the model can account for many of the features of the SCa and SCb waves observed in pulse experiments. The model also provides a unified explanation for the increase and decrease of neurofilament transport rates observed in various toxicant-induced neuropathies.     

A subject-specific pelvic bone model and its application to cemented acetabular replacements

A subject-specific three-dimensional finite element (FE) pelvic bone model has been developed and applied to the study of bone–cement interfacial response in cemented acetabular replacements. The pelvic bone model was developed from CT scan images of a cadaveric pelvis and validated against the experiment data obtained from the same specimen at a simulated single-legged stance. The model was then implanted with a cemented acetabular cup at selected positions to simulate some typical implant conditions due to the misplacement of the cup as well as a standard cup condition. For comparison purposes, a simplified FE model with homogeneous trabecular bone material properties was also generated and similar implant conditions were examined.The results from the homogeneous model are found to underestimate significantly both the peak von Mises stress and the area of the highly stressed region in the cement near the bone–cement interface, compared with those from the subject-specific model. Non-uniform cement thickness and non-standard cup orientation seem to elevate the highly stressed region as well as the peak stress near the bone–cement interface.     

A Poisson model of sequence comparison and its application to coronavirus phylogeny

In this paper, we propose two metrics to compare DNA and protein sequences based on a Poisson model of word occurrences. Instead of comparing the frequencies of all fixed-length words in two sequences, we consider (1) the probability of ‘generating’ one sequence under the Poisson model estimated from the other; (2) their different expression levels of words. Phylogenetic trees of 25 viruses including SARS-CoVs are constructed to illustrate our approach.     

东北地区植被物候期遥感模拟与变化规律

使用1982—2003年GIMMS-NDVI数据,借助GIS空间分析功能,提取东北地区不同植被NDVI时间序列数据,使用分段式Logistic函数模拟了东北地区不同植被物候期,分析了1982—2003年不同植被物候期的变化趋势。结果表明:针叶林、阔叶林、草丛、草甸和沼泽植被生长季开始日期提前,生长季延长,其中沼泽植被生长季开始日期提前和生长季延长的趋势明显,针叶林次之;结束日期的变化趋势表现不一,针叶林和沼泽植被生长季结束日期推迟,阔叶林、草丛和草甸植被呈现微弱提前趋势;针阔混交林、灌丛、草原和农田植被生长季开始日期推迟,生长季缩短,其中农田植被生长季开始日期推迟和生长季缩短的趋势明显,草原次之;针阔混交林、灌丛、草原和农田4种植被生长季结束日期呈现提前的变化趋势,其中灌丛结束日期的提前趋势明显。     

异速生长模型及其应用概述

生物体的许多特征（如代谢速率等）随着个体大小的变化而变化,经常用幂函数形式的异速生长方程来表达,其中影响最为深远的就是新陈代谢速率和个体大小成3／4幂的关系,在简要回顾研究历史的基础上,重点介绍20世纪以来,由West等提出的、目前最为公认的代谢理论模型（分型分配网络模型、生态代谢模型）,包括模型假设条件、数学推导过程、模型在生物学中的应用及关于模型的一些争议。     

作物生长模拟模型及其应用

论述了作物生长模型在国内外的研究及其发展过程,作物模型的机理及在农业生产中的作用,对作物生长模型在生产应用中存在的问题及今后的发展方向进行了讨论     

A constitutive model for two-dimensional soft tissues and its application to experimental data

A constitutive relation proposed by Shoemaker (Ph.D. dissertation, 1984) to model the mechanical behavior of membraneous or two-dimensional soft tissues is described. Experiments by Schneider (Ph.D. dissertation, 1982) on human skin and Lee et al. (Am. J. Physiol., 249, H222-H230, 1985) on canine pericardium, and the application of the constitutive model to biaxial stress-strain data from these experiments, are discussed. Some experimental data and predictions of the model obtained by curvefitting are presented for comparison. Values of material parameters are also presented. It is concluded that the constitutive model is well able to fit results of individual tests, and that its generality (judged by consistency of parameters from test to test of the same specimen), though not complete, does compare favorably with some other results presented in the literature.