Future of cancer incidence in Shanghai,China: Predicting the burden upon the ageing population

AimThe age-specific cancer patterns have changed significantly over the last few decades in urban Shanghai. Predicting the cancer incidence in an ageing population can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform further research studies.Materials and MethodsAnnual cancer cases and population data from 1988 to 2013 were collected from Shanghai Cancer Registry. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the future cancer incidence with demographical changes from 2014 to 2025.ResultsFrom 1988 through 2013, the urban population aged < 65 years decreased by 19.5%, while the population aged ≥ 65 years increased by 58.4%. In the same period, cancer cases increased by 66.0% (from 8315 to 13,806) and 88.6% (from 7448 to 14,048) in these two populations, respectively. From 2014–2025, the population size is expected to decrease by an additional 29.6% in people aged < 65 years, while it will increase by an additional 68.3% in people aged ≥ 65 years. Correspondingly, the model predicts an 87.5% and 143.4% increase in cancer cases for these two populations, respectively. The most pronounced increase was found in thyroid cancer in both sexes, followed by prostate, kidney, and colon cancer in men. In women, lung, kidney, and cervical cancer in women was expected to increase.ConclusionsThe number of cancer cases in urban Shanghai, especially in older people, is expected to significantly increase in the next decade. Particular strategies targeting the elderly are required to combat the cancers.     

Stratum corneum hydration inversely correlates with certain serum cytokine levels in the elderly,possibly contributing to inflammaging

The equine population in the United States and worldwide now includes a higher percentage of geriatric horses than ever previously recorded, and as methods to treat and manage elderly equids are developed and refined, this aging population will likely continue to expand. A better understanding of how horses age and the effect of age on immunity and disease susceptibility is needed to enable targeted preventative healthcare strategies for aged horses. This review article outlines the current state of knowledge regarding the effect of aging on immunity, vaccine responsiveness, and disease risk in the horse, highlighting similarities and differences to what is observed in aged humans. Horses show similar but milder age-related alterations in immune function to those reported in people. Decreases in lymphocyte proliferation and antibody production and diminished response to vaccination have all been documented in elderly horses, however, increased risk of infectious disease is not commonly reported. Aged horses also show evidence of a proinflammatory state (inflammaging) yet appear less susceptible to the chronic diseases of people for which inflammation is a risk factor. Information is currently lacking as to why the horse does not experience the same risk of age-related disease (e.g., cancer, heart disease, neurodegeneration) as people, although a lack of negative lifestyle habits, differences in diet, exercise, genetics and physiology may all contribute to improved health outcomes in the older horse.

     

Survival of cancer patients in urban and rural areas of Germany—A comparison

BackgroundCancer care services including cancer prevention activities are predominantly localised in central cities, potentially causing a heterogeneous geographic access to cancer care. The question of an association between residence in either urban or rural areas and cancer survival has been analysed in other parts of the world with inconsistent results. This study aims at a comparison of age-standardised 5-year survival of cancer patients resident in German urban and rural regions using data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering a population of 33 million people.Material and methodsPatients diagnosed with cancers of the most frequent and of some rare sites in 1997–2006 were included in the analyses. Places of residence were assigned to rural and urban areas according to administrative district types of settlement structure. Period analysis and district type specific population life tables were used to calculate overall age-standardised 5-year relative survival estimates for the period 2002–2006. Poisson regression models for excess mortality (relative survival) were used to test for statistical significance.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival estimates varied little among district types for most of the common sites with no consistent trend. Significant differences were found for female breast cancer patients and male malignant melanoma patients resident in city core regions with slightly better survival compared to all other district types, particularly for patients aged 65 years and older.ConclusionWith regard to residence in urban or rural areas, the results of our study indicate that there are no severe differences concerning quality and accessibility of oncological care in Germany among different district types of settlement.     

An increasing trend of gastric cancer deaths and inadequate preventive measures in elderly adults

Background

Japan became the world's first country to cover Helicobacter pylori eradication for chronic gastritis under its National Health Insurance (NHI) system in February 2013. Thereafter, H. pylori eradication dramatically increased and gastric cancer deaths began to decrease in Japan. However, the details of gastric cancer deaths and its prevention in the very elderly have not been fully elucidated.

Methods

We analyzed the temporal trend of gastric cancer deaths referencing data from Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reports and “Cancer Statistics in Japan–2021” and assessed the numbers of H. pylori test and gastric cancer screening using a national database and a report of cancer screening in Shimane Prefecture, respectively.

Results

Although gastric cancer deaths in total population have clearly decreased since 2013, those in people aged 80 years and older are still increasing. People aged 80 years and older represent 9% of the total population and accounted for half of all gastric cancer deaths in 2020. The numbers of H. pylori eradication and gastric cancer screening in people aged 80 years and older were 25% and 25% of those in other generations, respectively.

Conclusion

In spite of a dramatic increase in H. pylori eradication and a clear decrease in gastric cancer deaths in Japan, gastric cancer deaths in people aged 80 years and older are increasing. This might be due to fewer H. pylori eradication in the elderly than in other generations, indicating the difficulty of gastric cancer prevention in the very elderly.     

How many, how old, how soon?

This article highlights the population projections for the UK to 2066 and their health implications. The changes in the demographic age structure of human populations have dual implications. Although they represent accomplishments in social and health development considering the fact that more individuals are able to live until old age, these changes also bring new demands that affect all aspects of society, including employment, taxation, pension, education, and health. Age specific population projections presented were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. It is projected that the total number of people aged 60 years and older will rise from 12 million in 2001 to 18.6 million in 2031 and the number of individuals suffering with chronic diseases and disabilities will see a three-fold increase. Although these projections rely on assumptions and are subject to some changes, it is made clear that the proportion of the population aged 65 and above will continue to increase substantially over the next decades. These population trends will have a large impact on the health and health care needs of the population. Thus, there is a need to develop and plan institutions and policies that address the demands of the aging population. Understanding and identification of the causes and prevention of conditions that could result to serious disabilities must be a high priority.     

Lung and breast cancer mortality among women in France: Future trends

Estimates of mortality in future years are crucial for communication, prevention and anticipation related to the burden of diseases and for developing scenarios studying the effects of reducing environmental exposure. The aim of this study is to project observed trends of mortality in France for lung and breast cancer among females to 2021. Projections of mortality rates are based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and a Poisson distribution. We used cancer mortality data from the French mortality register (period 1977–2006) and population data from population registers (estimated for 1977–2006 and projected for period 2007–2021 using five scenarios: largest, smallest, youngest, older, average population). Alternative models were tested (generalized additive model, negative binomial distribution).For the average population scenario, lung and breast cancer mortality rates age-standardized to the world population, are respectively: 11.5 per 10⁵ women (Credibility interval: 10.3–12.8) and 15.9 (14.4–17.6) in 2007–2011, 14.6 (11.7–18.1) and 14.5 (11.6–18.0) in 2012–2016, 18.2 (12.6–26.0) and 13.3 (9.1–18.9) in 2017–2021.Projections show an ongoing increase for lung cancer and decrease for breast cancer mortality rates, which are expected to be equal in 2012–2016. Compared projections of these two cancers using a similar method had not been done before. Aggressive prevention strategies targeting smoking among women are needed to control this fast growing epidemic of avoidable cancer. Planning of health care capacity for diagnosis and treatment of cancer among females is also necessary.     

An Introduction to a Symposium in Geriatric Dentistry: Issues in Gerontology

The papers in this collection address geriatric dentistry at a time when society is rapidly becoming older. More than ever before, all dental care providers must understand the special needs of elderly patients and the unique biological features of the aged person that affect the diagnosis and prognosis of oral pathology. Attitudes about aging in the elderly must be discussed within the context of the health care setting so we can address the needs for social change, particularly in the dental and medical professions. This symposium brings together a series of papers on topics that are being researched in geriatric dentistry. The topics are diverse, including methods to finance dental care, psychiatric considerations, temporomandibular joint dysfunction, prosthodontics, artificial saliva and nutritional factors, immunology and the new frontiers in dental science, periodontal disease and oral cancer. And as an epilogue to our theme, a dentist with a primarily geriatric practice reflects on the difficulties and the rewards of the elderly patient. Improving the quality of life is the goal of aging research and to investigate aging legitimately we must ask in a systematic manner, what is aging? In this introduction, we discuss briefly the several theories of aging that are guiding research efforts.     

Temporal trends in net and crude probability of death from cancer and other causes in the Australian population, 1984–2013

BackgroundWhile net probabilities of death in the relative survival framework ignore competing causes of death, crude probabilities allow estimation of the real risk of cancer deaths. This study quantifies temporal trends in net and crude probabilities of death.MethodsAustralian population-based cohort of 2,015,903 people aged 15-89 years, diagnosed with a single primary invasive cancer from 1984 to 2013 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2014. Survival was analyzed with the cohort method. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate both probability measures by diagnosis year for all cancers and selected leading sites.ResultsFor each site, excess mortality rates reduced over time, especially for prostate cancer. While both the 10-year net and crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, specific patterns varied. For example, the crude probability of lung cancer deaths for males aged 50 years decreased from 0.90 (1984) to 0.79 (2013); whereas the corresponding probabilities for kidney cancer were 0.64 and 0.18 respectively. Patterns for crude probabilities of competing deaths were relatively constant. Although for younger patients, both net and crude measures were similar, crude probability of competing deaths increased with age, hence for older ages net and crude measures were different except for lung and pancreas cancers.ConclusionsThe observed reductions in probabilities of death over three decades for Australian cancer patients are encouraging. However, this study also highlights the ongoing mortality burden following a cancer diagnosis, and the need for continuing efforts to improve cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment.     

The cost of premature death from cancer attributable to alcohol: Productivity losses in Europe in 2018

BackgroundMore than 1.9 million people die from cancer each year in Europe. Alcohol use is a major modifiable risk factor for cancer and poses an economic burden on society. We estimated the cost of productivity lost due to premature death (under 65 years of age) from alcohol-attributable cancer in the European Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018.MethodsWe estimated cancer deaths attributable to alcohol using a Levin-based population attributable fractions method and cancer deaths in 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Lost productivity was estimated for all alcohol-attributable cancer deaths by sex, cancer site, and country. Productivity losses were valued using the human capital approach.ResultsAn estimated 23,300 cancer deaths among people aged less than 65 in the EU plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK in 2018 were attributable to alcohol (18,200 males, 5100 females). This equated to €4.58 billion in total productivity losses in the region and 0.027 % of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The average cost per alcohol-attributable cancer death was €196,000. Productivity lost to alcohol-attributable cancer per capita was highest in Western Europe. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal had the highest rate of premature mortality from alcohol-attributable cancer and the highest productivity lost as a share of national GDP.ConclusionOur study provides estimates of lost productivity from alcohol-attributable cancer death in Europe. Cost-effective strategies to prevent alcohol-attributable cancer deaths could result in economic benefits for society and must be prioritised.     

¿Cuál es el papel de la valoración geriátrica integral en Oncogeriatría?

The growing increase in world population and generalised aging have been accompanied by an increase in the prevalence of cancer in the elderly. Aging is associated with certain physiological changes, some of which are enhanced by the neoplasm itself. Along with this, the elderly oncology patient usually has more problems than the rest of the elderly, and has a multitude of deficits. These characteristics require a special handling of the older patient with cancer, by using the main tool used in Geriatrics, the comprehensive geriatric assessment. This article analyses the importance of the comprehensive geriatric assessment in this population group, paying special attention to its ability to predict the toxicity of chemotherapy and the survival of the elderly oncology, as well as its ability to classify these patients into groups that help in the decision making process.     

Global changes in bladder cancer mortality in the elderly

BackgroundBladder cancer is the 14th most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide and has a mean age of diagnosis of 73 years. Elderly people have fewer curative treatment options for muscle invasive bladder cancer. The aim of this study is to investigate how bladder cancer mortality has changed over the past forty years in different world regions to assess discrepancies between elderly and younger patients with bladder cancer.MethodsBladder cancer mortality data were extracted from the World Health Organisation’s GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for bladder cancer were computed by year, sex, region and Human Development Index (HDI) using the world standard population.ResultsOverall ASMR in all available countries with data between 1986 and 2014 for men aged ≥ 75 has decreased from 101.2 to 89.9 per 100,000 (−11.2%). The decrease in ASMR for men < 75 has been 0.3–2.0 per 100,000 (−39.4%). In women aged ≥ 75 ASMR has decreased from 26.9 to 22.5 per 100,000 (−16.4%) and in women < 75 the ASMR has decreased from 0.76 to 0.56 per 100,000 (−26.4%).Correlation analysis showed a positive linear relationship between Human Development Index (HDI) and improvement in age-standardised mortality rate in all ages. Pearson’s coefficient showed that correlation was strongest in the 60–74 age group (r = −0.61, p < 0.001) and weakest in those aged ≥ 75 (r = −0.39, p = 0.01).ConclusionBladder cancer mortality is not improving in the elderly at the same rate as the rest of the population. Particular focus should be applied in future research to enhance and expand treatment options for bladder cancer that are appropriate for elderly patients.     

Trends in breast cancer survival in Germany from 1976 to 2008--a period analysis by age and stage

Background: Implementation of mammography screening and advances in breast cancer treatment are considered as main reasons for the decline in breast cancer mortality observed in many industrialized countries during the past two decades. The purpose of this study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of trends in breast cancer incidence, mortality and survival by age and stage in Germany. Methods: Data from the population based Saarland Cancer Registry including patients diagnosed with breast cancer from 1972 to 2007 were used. Period analysis methods were employed to calculate 5-year relative survival and its trends. Results: Mortality started to decline during the 1990s, and a previous increase in incidence levelled off in the early 21st century. Overall age-standardized 5-year relative survival of invasive breast cancer steadily increased during the past three decades to 83% in 2004–2008. This increase was mostly due to an increase in survival for patients with localized cancers and locally or regionally spread tumours (increase of age-standardized 5-year relative survival from 92% to 98% and from 65% to 80%, respectively, between 1992 and 2008), whereas age-standardized 5-year relative survival essentially remained unchanged at levels close to 21% in patients with metastasized cancer. For women aged 70 years or older 5-year relative survival and its increase over time were inferior compared to younger patients. Conclusions: The observed trends in population based survival suggest that advances in treatment of early breast cancer have substantially contributed to the gain in prognosis. The poor prognosis of metastasized breast cancer patients and the increasing age gradient in 5-year relative survival call for enhanced efforts for early detection and more rigorous treatment of elderly patients.     

Changing temporal trends in non-AIDS cancer mortality among people diagnosed with AIDS: San Francisco,California, 1996–2013

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) mortality, but its effect on non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC) mortality is unclear. To help inform cancer prevention and screening, we evaluated trends in NADC mortality among people with AIDS (PWA) in the ART era.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed AIDS surveillance data, including causes of death from death certificates, for PWA in San Francisco who died in 1996–2013. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), and year, age, race, sex-adjusted standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for 1996–1999, 2000–2005, and 2006–2013, corresponding to advances in ART.ResultsThe study included 5822 deceased PWA of whom 90% were male and 68% were aged 35–54 at time of death. Over time, the PMRs significantly decreased for ADCs (2.6%, 1.4%, 1.2%) and increased for NADCs (4.3%, 7.0%, 12.3%). For all years combined (1996–2013) and compared to the California population, significantly elevated SMRs were observed for these cancers: all NADCs combined (2.1), anal (58.4), Hodgkin lymphoma (10.5), liver (5.2), lung/larynx (3.0), rectal (5.2), and tongue (4.7). Over time, the SMRs for liver cancer (SMR 19.8, 11.2, 5.0) significantly decreased while the SMRs remained significantly elevated over population levels for anal (SMR 123, 48.2, 45.5), liver (SMR 19.8, 11.2, 5.0), and lung/larynx cancer (SMR 5.3, 4.7, 3.6).ConclusionA decline in ADC PMRs and increase in NADC PMRs represent a shift in the cancer burden, likely due to ART use. Moreover, given their elevated SMRs, anal, liver, and lung/larynx cancer remain targets for improved cancer prevention, screening, and treatment.     

High cancer mortality rates in the elderly in the UK

Introduction: Cancer is largely a disease of older individuals. We compared UK cancer mortality rates with those for other countries to assess progress. Methods: Death details were obtained from the WHO Mortality Database for the UK, the USA and 11 European countries. Mortality rates were calculated for the age groups 55–64, 65–74, 75–84 and ≥85 years. Trends between 1995–97 and 2003–05 were determined. The number of excess cancer deaths in the UK was calculated by applying the age-specific mortality rates observed in other regions to the UK. Results: For all cancers combined, UK rates for 2003–05 in those aged ≥75 years were 11–31% higher than in other regions. From 1995–97 to 2003–05, UK rates decreased by 16–17% in those aged <75 years, but increased by 2% in those ≥85 years compared with decreases of 4–16% for the other geographic areas. More than 14,000 cancer deaths in the UK in those aged ≥75 years would be avoided each year if UK mortality rates were identical to those in the USA. Conclusion: The UK is making poor progress in controlling cancer in older age groups. The gap in mortality rates between the UK and other countries and between old and young in the UK is widening.     

Residential care for elderly people: a decade of change.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the changes between 1979 and 1990 in demography and dependency levels in elderly people in residential care. DESIGN--Censuses of those aged 65 years and over in any type of residential care at midnight on 11 December 1979 and 27 November 1990. SETTING--Leicestershire District Health Authority (population 865,133, 1991 census), coterminous with county and social services boundaries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age, sex, length of stay, and dependency levels (measured by activities of daily living). RESULTS--In 1990 (1979), 6079 (4678) elderly people were enumerated in 241 (133) establishments, a 30% increase in the numbers of elderly people in residential care and an 82% increase in the number of establishments between 1979 and 1990. Dependency levels rose between 1979 and 1990 in all but the geriatric sector, the greatest increases being found in private residential homes where the largest percentage increase in the number of residents had occurred. CONCLUSIONS--Dependency levels in residential care have risen substantially, particularly in the private sector, even beyond levels expected from the greater numbers of elderly people. With the impending move to community care, dependency levels are likely to rise further, and more appropriate staff training and medical input to homes will become necessary.     

Projection of older Australians with a history of midlife obesity and overweight 2010–2050

Objective: This study projects midlife obesity status in future older Australians. Design and Methods: Cross‐sectional prevalence of being obese or overweight by broad age groups was interpolated to obtain single‐year‐age data. These estimates were then used to derive prevalence of normal weight and underweight. Data by birth year and year of observation of persons aged 30–70 years were used to construct prediction equations. Results: Results show that older people with a history of midlife obesity is projected to rise substantially in the future. For people aged 65 years, midlife obesity was estimated at 22% in 2010 and is projected to increase to 43% for males and 37% for females in 2050. Conclusion: While the proportion of individuals with midlife normal weight is projected to decline substantially, prevalence of midlife overweight remains almost stable. The number of persons aged 65 years and over having a history of midlife obesity is projected to increase nearly six‐fold from less than 500,000 persons in 2010 to 2.8 million in 2050. In comparison, between 2010 and 2050, Australia's older population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase by only 2.5‐fold. Growing obesity prevalence in the Australian population translates into a large increase in older people with a history of midlife obesity, with major implications for the future burden of disease in older persons.     

Skin disease in a geriatric patients group in outpatient dermatologic clinic Karlovac, Croatia

To determine the characteristic pattern and frequency of dermatoses in dermatologic patients over 65 years we used electronic data base of General hospital Karlovac and conducted a retrospective cross sectional study evaluating age, sex and proportion of dermatoses. Total number of patients was 3200. There were 822 (25.69%) patients older than 65 years, and 2378 (74.31%) patients aged from 18-64 years. Ratio male/female in population over 65 years in our study was 0.76:1. Males had higher frequncy of verrucae vulgares 26 (7.3%) and dermatitis nummularis 47 (13.2%) then female and that difference was statistically significant. Female had higher frequency of keratosis acitinca 124 (26.61%) and fibroma 23 (4.94%), and that difference was statistically significant. The ten most common diagnosis in population over 65 years old were: keratosis actinica in 184 patients (22.38%) verrucae seborrhoicae in 156 (18.98%), dermatitits nummularis in 77 patients (9.37%), dermatitis allergica e contactu in 60 (7.30%) patients, mycosis in 56 (6.81%) patients, psoriasis in 51 (6.20%), verrucae vulgares in 39 (4.74%), fibromas in 27 (3.28%), naevi in 9 (1.09%) and acne in 1 (0.12%) patient. The number of patients with diagnosis of keratosis actinica, verrucae seborrhoicae and mycoses in population over 65 years old are greater then in younger subpopulation and that difference was statistically significant. There are specific pattern of frequency of dermatoses in elderly. Verrucae seborrhoica, keratosis actinica and mycoses are more common then in general population. In elderly risk for development of skin cancer is increased. Early detection of skin cancers and treatment of precanceroses is of utmost interest of health providers.     

The impact of skin cancer prevention efforts in New South Wales,Australia: Generational trends in melanoma incidence and mortality

BackgroundIn Australia, skin cancer awareness campaigns have focused on raising the awareness and consequences of skin cancer and highlighting the importance of utilising sun protection.MethodsTrends in melanoma incidence and mortality have been explored elsewhere in Australia and this study sought to examine the trends in NSW. Anonymised incidence and mortality data for in situ and invasive melanoma from 1988 to 2014 were obtained from the NSW Cancer Registry. Trends of melanoma incidence and mortality were analysed using segmented regression to allow for changes over time. Birth cohort patterns were assessed using age–period–cohort models.ResultsOver the period, incidence of in situ melanoma increased in all age groups although the rates were lowest in those under 40 years of age. Incidence of invasive melanoma was either stable or decreased in people under 60, while it increased in those aged 60 and above, particularly in men. Age–period–cohort analysis revealed decreasing age-specific incidence of invasive melanoma under 40 years of age. Melanoma mortality over the period was stable or decreased in all groups except in men aged 60 or over. Overall, mortality rates generally declined or remained stable particularly in recent years.ConclusionIt is encouraging that rates of invasive melanoma are declining in the younger age cohorts – which could be attributed to both primary prevention efforts with individuals protecting their skin as well as early detection through self assessment and clinician performed skin checks. In addition, whilst it is important to monitor the increasing rates of in situ melanoma, the increase is likely due to early detection and treatment of melanoma that could have progressed to invasive melanoma and therefore detection whilst still in situ is an improved outcome. Overall, the results demonstrate the need to continue to improve the understanding of and compliance with primary skin cancer prevention measures in order to reduce population UVR exposure and overall melanoma incidence.     

Study on the Trend and Disease Burden of Injury Deaths in Chinese Population, 2004–2010

Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10^th Revision (ICD-10). We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004–2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79–38.47% of all injury deaths) and suicides (16.20–22.01%) were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004–2010). The burden of injury among men (72.11%) was about three times more than that of women''s (28.89%). This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China.     

The relationship between breast cancer and augmentation mammaplasty: an epidemiologic study

Surgical implantation of breast prostheses for cosmetic purposes has become increasingly popular, and by 1981, it was estimated that three-quarters of a million women had had such an operation. The long-term potential risks, particularly of breast cancer, of such procedures have not been properly investigated. To evaluate the potential breast cancer risk, we have conducted a retrospective cohort study of 3111 women followed through various public and medical records for a total of 18,476 person-years, with a median of 6.2 years per person. The cases of breast cancer were detected by means of a computerized match with the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program, a population-based cancer registry. Overall, 15.7 breast cancer cases were expected and 9 were observed, a nonsignificant deficit [standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 57 percent, 95 percent confidence limits: 26 percent, 109 percent]. The cancers were generally diagnosed at an early stage. Among the 573 women aged 40 or older at implantation, 7.1 cases were expected and 8 were observed (SIR = 113 percent). In women whose implants were performed before the age of 40, only 1 case was observed whereas 8.6 cases were expected (SIR = 12 percent, 95 percent confidence limits: 0.3 percent, 65 percent), a significant difference. These data do not support an increased risk of breast cancer following augmentation mammaplasty. The low breast cancer rate in women having augmentation mammaplasty at a young age that many such women may have a reduced amount of breast tissue, but data on this are unavailable.