Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park,Ghana

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.     

Estimating the abundance of the critically endangered Baltic Proper harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population using passive acoustic monitoring

Knowing the abundance of a population is a crucial component to assess its conservation status and develop effective conservation plans. For most cetaceans, abundance estimation is difficult given their cryptic and mobile nature, especially when the population is small and has a transnational distribution. In the Baltic Sea, the number of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) has collapsed since the mid‐20th century and the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN and HELCOM; however, its abundance remains unknown. Here, one of the largest ever passive acoustic monitoring studies was carried out by eight Baltic Sea nations to estimate the abundance of the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise for the first time. By logging porpoise echolocation signals at 298 stations during May 2011–April 2013, calibrating the loggers’ spatial detection performance at sea, and measuring the click rate of tagged individuals, we estimated an abundance of 71–1105 individuals (95% CI, point estimate 491) during May–October within the population''s proposed management border. The small abundance estimate strongly supports that the Baltic Proper harbour porpoise is facing an extremely high risk of extinction, and highlights the need for immediate and efficient conservation actions through international cooperation. It also provides a starting point in monitoring the trend of the population abundance to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures and determine its interactions with the larger neighboring Belt Sea population. Further, we offer evidence that design‐based passive acoustic monitoring can generate reliable estimates of the abundance of rare and cryptic animal populations across large spatial scales.     

Monitoring the acoustic activity of an aquatic insect population in relation to temperature,vegetation and noise

1. Acoustic population monitoring is a noninvasive method that can be deployed continuously over long periods of time and at large spatial scales. One of the newly discovered threats acting on biological diversity is anthropogenic noise. High levels of anthropogenic noise occur in aquatic environments, yet their effects on animals living in freshwater habitats have very rarely been investigated.
2. Here, we used acoustic monitoring and automatic detection to assess the acoustic activity of a population of a soniferous freshwater insect.
3. The sounds emitted by the corixid Micronecta scholtzi were recorded in a Mediterranean pond with an array of 12 hydrophones. An automatic analysis based on a measure of the amplitude found in the frequency band of M. scholtzi was developed to assess the level of acoustic activity. We used functional linear models, accounting for the periodicity of the calling behaviour, to estimate the possible effect of temperature, vegetation and a noise due to an immersed engine.
4. The automatic analysis was validated as an efficient method to measure the acoustic activity. The monitoring revealed a clear 24-hr pattern in the acoustic activity of M. scholtzi and three peaks of activity during the morning. Functional linear models revealed negative effects of both temperature and vegetation and showed that an engine noise, played back for 2 hr during the night, elicited an increase in the level of acoustic activity of the population. Moreover, a cross-correlation procedure showed that noise delayed the acoustic activity of the population.
5. Our results suggest that acoustic survey and automatic detection are efficient methods to monitor the acoustic activity of an insect population especially in response to an anthropogenic disturbance.

     

Estimating nests not present at the time of breeding surveys: an important consideration in assessing nesting populations

ABSTRACT.   Counts of nest starts are often used as indicators of the size of avian nesting populations, or of avian productivity. However, the accuracy of single or repeated counts of unmarked nests over time for estimating seasonal numbers of nests may be strongly affected by nest events that fall in between survey dates, or that occurred prior to or after the survey period. Accuracy may also be affected by uncertainty in the interpretation of counts due to overlap between starting and ending dates of asynchronous nests during the intervisit interval. To measure the combined magnitude of these effects on survey accuracy, we overlaid a monthly "survey" regime on known initiation and ending dates of 2055 nests of ciconiiform birds. Assuming all nests present on the date of simulated survey were counted, monthly surveys underestimated the true number of nest starts by 24–64%, depending on species and year. Using a simple model, we also demonstrate that accuracy does not increase much as survey frequency increases, and that significant estimation error can occur over a wide range of nest success values and degrees of asynchrony. We suggest that (1) these biases can be significant for surveys of many kinds of nesting birds including some territorial passerines, (2) this bias cannot be addressed by increasing survey frequency, and (3) the degree of renesting may be of critical interest for inferring breeding population size from nest count data. We suggest three possible approaches for modeling this error.     

Resource variability, aggregation and direct density dependence in an open context: the local regulation of an African elephant population

1. An emerging perspective in the study of density dependence is the importance of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources. Although this is well understood in temperate ungulates, few studies have been conducted in tropical environments where both food and water are limiting resources. 2. We studied the regulation of one of the world's largest elephant populations in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. The study period started in 1986 when the population was released from culling. Using census data we investigated changes in elephant abundance with respect to rainfall and density across the entire park and across waterholes. 3. The population more than doubled since culling stopped. The population increased continuously during the first 6 years, and then fluctuated widely at about 30,000 individuals. Immigration processes must have been involved in the increase of the population size. 4. Population growth rates were negatively related to previous population density by a convex relationship, and negatively related to the ratio of previous population density on annual rainfall by a linear relationship. However, only this latter model (i.e. assuming a fluctuating carrying capacity related to annual rainfall) produced realistic dynamics. Overall, population decreased during dry years when the elephant density was high. 5. During dry years there were fewer waterholes retaining water during the dry season and consequently elephant numbers at waterholes increased, while their aggregation level across waterholes decreased. On the long-run elephant numbers increased only at the less crowded waterholes. 6. We suggest that the interaction between population size and the available foraging range determined by the number of active waterholes during the dry season controls the park population. 7. Our results emphasize the need to understand how key-resource areas cause resource-based aggregation, which ultimately influences the strength of density dependence. More specifically, this study suggests that climate variability strongly affects local elephant population dynamics through changes in surface-water availability. Finally, as dispersal is likely to be an important driver of the dynamics of this population, our results support views that a metapopulation framework should be endorsed for elephant management in open contexts.     

Assessing the oral health of an ageing population: methods, challenges and predictors of survey participation

doi: 10.1111/j.1741‐2358.2011.00540.x Assessing the oral health of an ageing population: methods, challenges and predictors of survey participation Objectives: To examine predictors of participation and to describe the methodological considerations of conducting a two‐stage population‐based oral health survey. Methods: An observational, cross‐sectional survey (telephone interview and clinical oral examination) of community‐dwelling adults aged 45–64 and ≥65 living in Nova Scotia, Canada was conducted. Results: The survey response rate was 21% for the interview and 13.5% for the examination. A total of 1141 participants completed one or both components of the survey. Both age groups had higher levels of education than the target population; the age 45–64 sample also had a higher proportion of females and lower levels of employment than the target population. Completers (participants who completed interview and examination) were compared with partial completers (who completed only the interview), and stepwise logistic regression was performed to examine predictors of completion. Identified predictors were as follows: not working, post‐secondary education and frequent dental visits. Conclusion: Recruitment, communications and logistics present challenges in conducting a province‐wide survey. Identification of employment, education and dental visit frequency as predictors of survey participation provide insight into possible non‐response bias and suggest potential for underestimation of oral disease prevalence in this and similar surveys. This potential must be considered in analysis and in future recruitment strategies.     

Natural re-establishment of a population of a critically endangered primate in a secondary forest: the San Martin titi monkey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Plecturocebus oenanthe</Emphasis>) at the Pucunucho Private Conservation Area,Peru

The San Martin titi monkey (Plecturocebus oenanthe) is endemic to a small area of northern Peru and is considered Critically Endangered on the IUCN due to massive habitat loss. Between 1994 and 2005 small scale reforestation efforts in the 23.5 ha area of Pucunucho have led to the recuperation of habitat from an area of pasture and crop lands. The first record of P. oenanthe re-establishment in the area is from 2010, although re-establishment probably began earlier. We carried out short population surveys using triangulation to monitor densities of P. oenanthe in Pucunucho in 2011, 2012 and 2016. We estimate the current population of P. oenanthe in this area at 27 individuals, giving population densities of 35 groups/km² and 124 individuals/km². The successful regeneration of habitat and natural re-population of the area by this Critically Endangered species provides evidence of successful reforestation based conservation activities for this and potentially other primate species. Although now protected as a Private Conservation Area, Pucunucho remains threatened.