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1.
Jeff S Bowman Simon Rasmussen Nikolaj Blom Jody W Deming S?ren Rysgaard Thomas Sicheritz-Ponten 《The ISME journal》2012,6(1):11-20
Dramatic decreases in the extent of Arctic multiyear ice (MYI) suggest this environment may disappear as early as 2100, replaced by ecologically different first-year ice. To better understand the implications of this loss on microbial biodiversity, we undertook a detailed census of the microbial community in MYI at two sites near the geographic North Pole using parallel tag sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Although the composition of the MYI microbial community has been characterized by previous studies, microbial community structure has not been. Although richness was lower in MYI than in underlying surface water, we found diversity to be comparable using the Simpson and Shannon''s indices (for Simpson t=0.65, P=0.56; for Shannon t=0.25, P=0.84 for a Student''s t-test of mean values). Cyanobacteria, comprising 6.8% of reads obtained from MYI, were observed for the first time in Arctic sea ice. In addition, several low-abundance clades not previously reported in sea ice were present, including the phylum TM7 and the classes Spartobacteria and Opitutae. Members of Coraliomargarita, a recently described genus of the class Opitutae, were present in sufficient numbers to suggest niche occupation within MYI. 相似文献
2.
George M. Durner David C. Douglas Shannon E. Albeke John P. Whiteman Steven C. Amstrup Evan Richardson Ryan R. Wilson Merav Ben‐David 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(9):3460-3473
Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio‐tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987–1998 and 1999–2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%–9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%–8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%–3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1–3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic. 相似文献
3.
Inger Greve Alsos Dorothee Ehrich Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz Ole Bennike Andreas Joachim Kirchhefer Aslaug Geirsdottir 《Biology letters》2016,12(9)
Sea ice has been suggested to be an important factor for dispersal of vascular plants in the Arctic. To assess its role for postglacial colonization in the North Atlantic region, we compiled data on the first Late Glacial to Holocene occurrence of vascular plant species in East Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Svalbard. For each record, we reconstructed likely past dispersal events using data on species distributions and genetics. We compared these data to sea-ice reconstructions to evaluate the potential role of sea ice in these past colonization events and finally evaluated these results using a compilation of driftwood records as an independent source of evidence that sea ice can disperse biological material. Our results show that sea ice was, in general, more prevalent along the most likely dispersal routes at times of assumed first colonization than along other possible routes. Also, driftwood is frequently dispersed in regions that have sea ice today. Thus, sea ice may act as an important dispersal agent. Melting sea ice may hamper future dispersal of Arctic plants and thereby cause more genetic differentiation. It may also limit the northwards expansion of competing boreal species, and hence favour the persistence of Arctic species. 相似文献
4.
Denitrification activity and oxygen dynamics in Arctic sea ice 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Søren Rysgaard Ronnie N. Glud Mikael K. Sejr Martin E. Blicher Henrik J. Stahl 《Polar Biology》2008,31(5):527-537
Denitrification and oxygen dynamics were investigated in the sea ice of Franklin Bay (70°N), Canada. These investigations
were complemented with measurements of denitrification rates in sea ice from different parts of the Arctic (69°N–85°N). Potential
for bacterial denitrification activity (5–194 μmol N m−2 day−1) and anammox activity (3–5 μmol N m−2 day−1) in melt water from both first-year and multi-year sea ice was found. These values correspond to 27 and 7%, respectively,
of the benthic denitrification and anammox activities in Arctic sediments. Although we report only potential denitrification
and anammox rates, we present several indications that active denitrification in sea ice may occur in Franklin Bay (and elsewhere):
(1) despite sea ice-algal primary production in the lower sea ice layers, heterotrophic activity resulted in net oxygen consumption
in the sea ice of 1–3 μmol l−1 sea ice per day at in situ light conditions, suggesting that O2 depletion may occur prior to the spring bloom. (2) The ample organic carbon (DOC) and NO3
− present in sea ice may support an active denitrification population. (3) Measurements of O2 conditions in melted sea ice cores showed very low bulk concentrations, and in some cases anoxic conditions prevailed. (4)
Laboratory studies using planar optodes for measuring the high-resolution two-dimensional O2 distributions in sea ice confirmed the very dynamic and heterogeneous O2 distribution in sea ice, displaying a mosaic of microsites of high and low O2 concentrations. Brine enclosures and channels were strongly O2 depleted in actively melting sea ice, and anoxic conditions in parts of the brine system would favour anaerobic processes. 相似文献
5.
Pan‐Arctic sea ice‐algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice
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Benjamin A. Lange Hauke Flores Christine Michel Justin F. Beckers Anne Bublitz John Alec Casey Giulia Castellani Ido Hatam Anke Reppchen Svenja A. Rudolph Christian Haas 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(11):4581-4597
There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan‐Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first‐year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m2, a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice‐algal biomass and represent a reliable ice‐algal habitat due to the (quasi‐) permanent low‐snow surface of these features. We identified an ice‐algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice‐algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan‐Arctic CryoSat‐2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice‐algal habitat within the MYI‐covered region of 0.54 million km2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block‐model classification, which assigns single‐parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice‐algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice‐algae. 相似文献
6.
近年来随着北极地区的开放和全球变化对北极地区生态环境和海冰现存量的影响日益显现,北极浮冰生态学研究得到了广泛的重视和实质性的进展.最新研究结果显示,浮冰本身包含了一个复杂的生物群落,高纬度浮冰生物群落的初级产量远高于原先的估算,浮冰生物群落在北极海洋生态系统中的作用被进一步确认.但由于对浮冰生物群落的研究受后勤保障条件的制约,目前尚有大量科学问题有待今后进一步深入研究,预期我国科学家将在其中做出贡献. 相似文献
7.
Andrew P. Castagno Till J. W. Wagner Mattias R. Cape Conner W. Lester Elizabeth Bailey Catharina Alves-de-Souza Robert A. York Alyson H. Fleming 《Global Change Biology》2023,29(17):5087-5098
Phytoplankton primary production in the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the last two decades. In 2019, a record spring bloom occurred in Fram Strait, characterized by a peak in chlorophyll that was reached weeks earlier than in other years and was larger than any previously recorded May bloom. Here, we consider the conditions that led to this event and examine drivers of spring phytoplankton blooms in Fram Strait using in situ, remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. From samples collected during the May 2019 bloom, we observe a direct relationship between sea ice meltwater in the upper water column and chlorophyll a pigment concentrations. We place the 2019 spring dynamics in context of the past 20 years, a period marked by rapid change in climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that increased advection of sea ice into the region and warmer surface temperatures led to a rise in meltwater input and stronger near-surface stratification. Over this time period, we identify large-scale spatial correlations in Fram Strait between increased chlorophyll a concentrations and increased freshwater flux from sea ice melt. 相似文献
8.
Bodil A. Bluhm Haakon Hop Mikko Vihtakari Rolf Gradinger Katrin Iken Igor A. Melnikov Janne E. Søreide 《Ecology and evolution》2018,8(4):2350-2364
Arctic sea ice provides microhabitats for biota that inhabit the liquid‐filled network of brine channels and the ice–water interface. We used meta‐analysis of 23 published and unpublished datasets comprising 721 ice cores to synthesize the variability in composition and abundance of sea ice meiofauna at spatial scales ranging from within a single ice core to pan‐Arctic and seasonal scales. Two‐thirds of meiofauna individuals occurred in the bottom 10 cm of the ice. Locally, replicate cores taken within meters of each other were broadly similar in meiofauna composition and abundance, while those a few km apart varied more; 75% of variation was explained by station. At the regional scale (Bering Sea first‐year ice), meiofauna abundance varied over two orders of magnitude. At the pan‐Arctic scale, the same phyla were found across the region, with taxa that have resting stages or tolerance to extreme conditions (e.g., nematodes and rotifers) dominating abundances. Meroplankton, however, was restricted to nearshore locations and landfast sea ice. Light availability, ice thickness, and distance from land were significant predictor variables for community composition on different scales. On a seasonal scale, abundances varied broadly for all taxa and in relation to the annual ice algal bloom cycle in both landfast and pack ice. Documentation of ice biota composition, abundance, and natural variability is critical for evaluating responses to decline in Arctic sea ice. Consistent methodology and protocols must be established for comparability of meiofauna monitoring across the Arctic. We recommend to (1) increase taxonomic resolution of sea ice meiofauna, (2) focus sampling on times of peak abundance when seasonal sampling is impossible, (3) include the bottom 30 cm of ice cores rather than only bottom 10 cm, (4) preserve specimens for molecular analysis to improve taxonomic resolution, and (5) formulate a trait‐based framework that relates to ecosystem functioning. 相似文献
9.
Gradinger RR 《Zoology (Jena, Germany)》2001,104(3-4):339-345
Sea ice is a unique habitat in polar seas. A diverse assemblage of plants and animals lives in its interior parts and at the ice-water interface. Their distribution is to a large extent controlled by abiotic parameters such as light, salinity and space, as well as food availability. In both the Arctic and Antarctic, the highest metazoan concentrations occur mostly in the bottom centimetres of the sea ice. Dominant metazoans are nematodes, turbellarians, rotifers and crustaceans. The ice-water interface itself houses in addition to endemic amphipods migrants from both the ice and the pelagic realm. To survive with the environmental conditions of the sea ice habitat, the ice biota is adapted, specifically to seasonal salinity variations from below 5 to above 60 PSU. Sea ice metazoans feed mainly on the algae growing within the sea ice. The loss of habitat during ice melt periods can lead to substantial sedimentation of ice fauna to the sea floor, where it might act as food source for the benthos. 相似文献
10.
Brian Eddie Andrew Juhl Christopher Krembs Charles Baysinger Susanne Neuer 《Environmental microbiology》2010,12(3):797-809
Sea ice microbial community structure affects carbon and nutrient cycling in polar seas, but its susceptibility to changing environmental conditions is not well understood. We studied the eukaryotic microbial community in sea ice cores recovered near Point Barrow, AK in May 2006 by documenting the composition of the community in relation to vertical depth within the cores, as well as light availability (mainly as variable snow cover) and nutrient concentrations. We applied a combination of epifluorescence microscopy, denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and clone libraries of a section of the 18S rRNA gene in order to compare the community structure of the major eukaryotic microbial phylotypes in the ice. We find that the community composition of the sea ice is more affected by the depth horizon in the ice than by light availability, although there are significant differences in the abundance of some groups between light regimes. Epifluorescence microscopy shows a shift from predominantly heterotrophic life styles in the upper ice to autotrophy prevailing in the bottom ice. This is supported by the statistical analysis of the similarity between the samples based on the denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis banding patterns, which shows a clear difference between upper and lower ice sections with respect to phylotypes and their proportional abundance. Clone libraries constructed using diatom‐specific primers confirm the high diversity of diatoms in the sea ice, and support the microscopic counts. Evidence of protistan grazing upon diatoms was also found in lower sections of the core, with implications for carbon and nutrient recycling in the ice. 相似文献
11.
Laidre KL Heide-Jørgensen MP Nyeland J Mosbech A Boertmann D 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2008,275(1652):2695-2702
Sea ice loss will indirectly alter energy transfer through the pelagic food web and ultimately impact apex predators. We quantified spring-time trends in sea ice recession around each of 46 thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) colonies in west Greenland across 20 degrees of latitude and investigated the magnitude and timing of the associated spring-time primary production. A geographical information system was used to extract satellite-based observations of sea ice concentration from the Nimbus-7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR, 1979-1987) and the Defence Meteorological Satellite Programs Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI, 1987-2004), and satellite-based observations of chlorophyll a from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS: EOS-Terra satellite) in weekly intervals in circular buffers around each colony site (150 km in radius). Rapid recession of high Arctic seasonal ice cover created a temporally predictable primary production bloom and associated trophic cascade in water gradually exposed to solar radiation. This pattern was largely absent from lower latitudes where little to no sea ice resulted in a temporally variable primary production bloom driven by nutrient cycling and upwelling uncoupled to ice. The relationship between the rate and variability of sea ice recession and colony size of thick-billed murres shows that periodical confinement of the trophic cascade at high latitudes determines the carrying capacity for Arctic seabirds during the breeding period. 相似文献
12.
Anique Stecher Stefan Neuhaus Benjamin Lange Stephan Frickenhaus Bánk Beszteri Peter G. Kroth 《欧洲藻类学杂志》2016,51(1):31-46
Sea ice is a large and diverse ecosystem contributing significantly to primary production in ice-covered regions. In the Arctic Ocean, sea ice consists of mixed multi-year ice (MYI), often several metres thick, and thinner first-year ice (FYI). Current global warming is most severe in Arctic regions; as a consequence, summer sea ice cover is decreasing and MYI is disappearing at an alarming rate. Despite its apparent hostility, sea ice is inhabited by a diverse microbial community of bacteria and protists, many of which are photosynthetic. Here we present an assessment of eukaryotic biodiversity in MYI and FYI from the central Arctic Ocean using high-throughput 454 sequencing of 18S rRNA and rDNA amplicons. We compared the rDNA-based ‘total’ biodiversity with the ‘active’ biodiversity from rRNA amplicons and found differences between them including an over-representation of Ciliophora, Bicosoecida and Bacillariophyceae operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in the active part of the community. Differences between the two libraries are more pronounced at the lower taxonomic level: certain genera, such as Melosira, are more abundant in the rRNA library, indicating activity of these genera. Furthermore, we found that one FYI station showed a higher activity of potential grazers which was probably due to the advanced stage of melt evident by higher ice temperatures and highly porous ice compared with the other stations. 相似文献
13.
We report on the first record of interstitial cnidarians in sea ice. Ice core samples were collected during eight field periods
between February 2003 and June 2006 in the coastal fast ice off Barrow, Alaska (71°N, 156°W) at four locations. A total of
194 solitary, small (0.2–1.1 mm) elongated specimens of a previously unknown interstitial hydroid taxon were found. By cnidome
composition and the occurrence of a highly retractable pedal disc formed by epidermal tissue only, the specimens are tentatively
assigned to representatives of the family Protohydridae, subclass Anthomedusae. The hydroids were found almost exclusively
in the bottom 10 cm-layer (at the ice–water interface) of 118 ice cores, with abundances ranging from 0 to 27 individuals
per core section (0–4,244 ind m−2) and a grand mean of 269 ind m−2 in bottom 10 cm-layer sections. Abundances were lower in December and late May than in months in between with considerable
site variability. A factor analysis using 12 variables showed that hydroid abundance correlated highest with abundances of
copepod nauplii and polychaete juveniles suggesting a trophic relationship. 相似文献
14.
Diversity and cold-active hydrolytic enzymes of culturable bacteria associated with Arctic sea ice,Spitzbergen 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Groudieva T Kambourova M Yusef H Royter M Grote R Trinks H Antranikian G 《Extremophiles : life under extreme conditions》2004,8(6):475-488
The diversity of culturable bacteria associated with sea ice from four permanently cold fjords of Spitzbergen, Arctic Ocean, was investigated. A total of 116 psychrophilic and psychrotolerant strains were isolated under aerobic conditions at 4°C. The isolates were grouped using amplified rDNA restriction analysis fingerprinting and identified by partial sequencing of 16S rRNA gene. The bacterial isolates fell in five phylogenetic groups: subclasses and of Proteobacteria, the Bacillus–Clostridium group, the order Actinomycetales, and the Cytophaga–Flexibacter–Bacteroides (CFB) phylum. Over 70% of the isolates were affiliated with the Proteobacteria subclass. Based on phylogenetic analysis (<98% sequence similarity), over 40% of Arctic isolates represent potentially novel species or genera. Most of the isolates were psychrotolerant and grew optimally between 20 and 25°C. Only a few strains were psychrophilic, with an optimal growth at 10–15°C. The majority of the bacterial strains were able to secrete a broad range of cold-active hydrolytic enzymes into the medium at a cultivation temperature of 4°C. The isolates that are able to degrade proteins (skim milk, casein), lipids (olive oil), and polysaccharides (starch, pectin) account for, respectively, 56, 31, and 21% of sea-ice and seawater strains. The temperature dependences for enzyme production during growth and enzymatic activity were determined for two selected enzymes, -amylase and -galactosidase. Interestingly, high levels of enzyme productions were measured at growth temperatures between 4 and 10°C, and almost no production was detected at higher temperatures (20–30°C). Catalytic activity was detected even below the freezing point of water (at –5°C), demonstrating the unique properties of these enzymes. 相似文献
15.
Ingo Schewe 《International Review of Hydrobiology》2001,86(3):317-335
Abundance, biomass and activity of the small‐sized benthic organisms (bacteria to meiofauna, including foraminifera) was studied in summer 1998 during the expedition ARK XIV/1a to the Amerasian area of the perennially ice covered central Arctic Ocean. With the help of two icebreakers, the German research vessel POLARSTERN and the Russian nuclear‐powered ARCTICA, it was possible to reach this remote, heavily ice‐covered region in order to carry out the first benthic investigations. These focus on effects on the benthic community of the expected low food availability under perennial ice coverage. Bacterial and meiofaunal abundances were determined by direct counting. Biomass determinations on bacteria and nematodes were undertaken by size‐imaging techniques. In addition biochemical analyses were carried out to estimate food availability (as sediment‐bound chloroplastic pigments indicating phytodetritus) at the sea floor, the total microbial biomass (TMB; i.e. the total amount of sediment inhabiting bacteria, flagellata, protozoa and small metazoa, estimated by phospholipid quantification) and the potential bacterial activity (turnover rates of ester‐cleaving exoenzymes). Concentrations of chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE) in the main target area (Alpa‐Ridge) ranged between 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.17 ± 0.04 μg/ml. A 2–3 times higher concentration was determined at a station on the Lomonosov Ridge crest (0.40 ± 0.15 μg/ml). The standing stock of meiobenthic organisms (including foraminiferans) was extremely low and varied between 72 ± 17 individuals 10 cm–2 in the deep Makarov Basin (3,170 m) and 190 ± 56 individuals 10 cm–2 on the Alpha Ridge (1,470 m). Significantly higher numbers (U‐test, p = 0.049) were found on the Lomonosov Ridge (297 ± 82 individuals 10 cm–2). Meiobenthic abundances from the area of investigations, were up to ten times lower than those reported from non‐ice covered deep‐sea regions. However a significant water depth depending decrease of meiobenthic abundances was still detectable. A comparison of biomass data determined by volumetric measurements and biochemical methods showed that about 67% of the TMB are held by organisms of nanofauna size (2–32 μm), approx. 32% belongs to bacteria. Only 0.5–1.5% of the TMB were held by metazoan meiofauna. 相似文献
16.
Sveinn A. Hanssen Børge Moe Bård‐Jørgen Bårdsen Frank Hanssen Geir W. Gabrielsen 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(10):3554-3564
Anthropogenic impact on the environment and wildlife are multifaceted and far‐reaching. On a smaller scale, controlling for predators has been increasing the yield from local natural prey resources. Globally, human‐induced global warming is expected to impose severe negative effects on ecosystems, an effect that is expected to be even more pronounced in the scarcely populated northern latitudes. The clearest indication of a changing Arctic climate is an increase in both air and ocean temperatures leading to reduced sea ice distribution. Population viability is for long‐lived species dependent on adult survival and recruitment. Predation is the main mortality cause in many bird populations, and egg predation is considered the main cause of reproductive failure in many birds. To assess the effect of predation and climate, we compared population time series from a natural experiment where a trapper/down collector has been licensed to actively protect breeding common eiders Somateria mollissima (a large seaduck) by shooting/chasing egg predators, with time series from another eider colony located within a nature reserve with no manipulation of egg predators. We found that actively limiting predator activity led to an increase in the population growth rate and carrying capacity with a factor of 3–4 compared to that found in the control population. We also found that population numbers were higher in years with reduced concentration of spring sea ice. We conclude that there was a large positive impact of human limitation of egg predators, and that this lead to higher population growth rate and a large increase in size of the breeding colony. We also report a positive effect of warming climate in the high arctic as reduced sea‐ice concentrations was associated with higher numbers of breeding birds. 相似文献
17.
S. C. Pathak Vandana Kulshrestha Arun Kumar Choubey A. H. Parulekar 《Journal of biosciences》1999,24(2):233-240
Air borne insects, mostly carried by wind currents, were trapped over the northern Arabian sea (16‡ to 20‡ N; 68‡ to 72‡ E),
in the course of cruise No. 111, ORVSAGAR KANYA (March 14 to April 7, 1996). A total of 2,301 insects belonging to 8 different orders, 47 families and 173 species were trapped.
Of these, Hymenoptera was represented by the largest number (1082), which was followed by Hemiptera (586), Diptera (552),
Coleoptera (51), Neuroptera (10), Trichoptera (03), Lepidoptera (03) and Orthoptera (01). The trapped insects were mostly
between 0.6 mm to over 11 mm long. The data was examined for α-diversity as well as for possible correlations between various
parameters like the diversity index, size and number of insects trapped on one hand and the distance of the nearest land mass
in wind direction, on the other.
Deceased. 相似文献
18.
Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison
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Reinhard Prestele Peter Alexander Mark D. A. Rounsevell Almut Arneth Katherine Calvin Jonathan Doelman David A. Eitelberg Kerstin Engström Shinichiro Fujimori Tomoko Hasegawa Petr Havlik Florian Humpenöder Atul K. Jain Tamás Krisztin Page Kyle Prasanth Meiyappan Alexander Popp Ronald D. Sands Rüdiger Schaldach Jan Schüngel Elke Stehfest Andrzej Tabeau Hans Van Meijl Jasper Van Vliet Peter H. Verburg 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(12):3967-3983
Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. 相似文献
19.
Marine mammals are important sources of food for indigenous residents of northern Alaska. Changing sea ice patterns affect the animals themselves as well as access to them by hunters. Documenting the traditional knowledge of Iñupiaq and Yupik hunters concerning marine mammals and sea ice makes accessible a wide range of information relevant to understanding the ecosystem to which humans belong. We interviewed hunters in 11 coastal villages from the northern Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea. Hunters reported extensive changes in sea ice and weather that have affected the timing of marine mammal migrations, their distribution and behaviour and the efficacy of certain hunting methods. Amidst these changes, however, hunters cited offsetting technological benefits, such as more powerful and fuel-efficient outboard engines. Other concerns included potential impacts to subsistence hunting from industrial activity such as shipping and oil and gas development. While hunters have been able to adjust to some changes, continued environmental changes and increased disturbance from human activity may further challenge their ability to acquire food in the future. There are indications, however, that innovation and flexibility provide sources of resilience. 相似文献
20.
Jakob J. Assmann Isla H. Myers‐Smith Albert B. Phillimore Anne D. Bjorkman Richard E. Ennos Janet S. Prevy Greg H. R. Henry Niels M. Schmidt Robert D. Hollister 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(7):2258-2274
The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology. 相似文献