Changes in incidence of and mortality from breast cancer in England and Wales since introduction of screening. United Kingdom Association of Cancer Registries.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the impact of the NHS breast screening programme on the incidence of and mortality from breast cancer. DESIGN--Comparison of age specific incidence and mortality before and after the introduction of screening in the late 1980s. SETTING--England and Wales. SUBJECTS--Women aged over 30 years. RESULTS--In 1992 the age standardised incidence of breast cancer was 40% higher than in 1979. After the introduction of screening in 1988 recorded incidence rates rose steeply in the screened age group (50-64 year olds) but not in others. In 1992 the rates levelled off at about 25% higher than in 1987. Total mortality from breast cancer has increased steadily since the 1950s; the rates increased earlier in the younger age groups. By the mid-1980s rates had begun to fall in the younger age groups; but total mortality was still among the highest in the world. Age standardised mortality in the 55-69 age group changed little during the first three years of screening but then fell steeply and in 1994 was 12% lower than in 1987. CONCLUSIONS--Since the introduction of screening there have been pronounced increases in recorded incidence in the screened age group. Cancer registries have an essential role in assessing screening programmes and cancer services. The steep decrease in mortality in 55-69 year olds which began three years after screening started is unlikely to be due to screening. The widespread adoption of treatment with tamoxifen during this period may be important. With the reduction in mortality already observed and the expected additional benefits from screening, the Health of the Nation target should be achieved.     

Model of outcomes of screening mammography: information to support informed choices

Objective To provide easy to use estimates of the benefits and harms of biennial screening mammography for women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70 years.Design Markov process model, with data from BreastScreen Australia, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Main outcome measure Age specific outcomes expressed per 1000 women over 10 years.Results For every 1000 women screened over 10 years, 167-251 (depending on age) receive an abnormal result; 56-64 of these women undergo at least one biopsy, 9-26 have an invasive cancer detected by screening, and 3-6 have ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) detected by screening. More breast cancers (both invasive and DCIS) are diagnosed among screened than unscreened women. For example, among 1000 women aged 50 who have five biennial screens, 33 breast cancers are diagnosed: 28 invasive cancers (18 detected at screening and 10 interval cancers) and five DCIS (all detected at screening). By comparison, among 1000 women aged 50 who decline screening, 20 cancers are diagnosed over 10 years. There are about 0.5, 2, 3, and 2 fewer deaths from breast cancer over 10 years per 1000 women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70, respectively, who choose to be screened compared with women who decline screening at times determined by relevant policy.Conclusion Benefits and harms of screening mammography are relatively finely balanced. Quantitative estimates such as these can be used to support individual informed choices about screening.     

Bias in Observational Studies of the Association between Menopausal Hormone Therapy and Breast Cancer

BackgroundDuring the period 1985-2000 the breast cancer incidence rates increased 50% in the age group invited to mammography screening in Norway and Sweden. Simultaneously, use of hormone replacement treatment therapy (HT) increased 5 times. Several influential observational studies showed that HT was associated with 50% to 100% increased risk of breast cancer and most for those using combined (estrogen plus progestin) hormone replacement therapy (CHT). In contrast, the randomized WHI trial reported that CHT increased the risk by 10% for those not having previously used hormones and 24% when including previous users in the analyses. In another randomized trial, estrogen use only was not associated with any increased risk at all. After the WHI trial was published in 2003, use of HT dropped 70% within 5 years in Norway and Sweden while breast cancer rates were essentially unchanged. After 2008, HT use has dropped further and breast cancer incidence rates have started increasing again. The study objective is to calculate and to explain potential bias in the observational study design.ConclusionsWe suggest that the mechanism causing higher hazard ratio of breast cancer (compared to the observational studies) is the time-varying effect of CHT on the breast cancer risk and selective retrospective reporting of hormone use. Other risk factors for the increase in breast cancer risk in the age group 50-69 years should be considered, for example, overdiagnosis.     

Predicting mortality from cervical cancer after negative smear test results.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the relative protection against death from cervical cancer after two or more negative smear test results and compare it with the protection against invasive cancer estimated by an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group in an analysis of data from 10 large screening programmes. DESIGN--Comparison of risk of death from cervical cancer after two or more negative smear results with the risk in unscreened women by using a model constructed with data from the British Columbia screening programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality from and incidence of invasive cancer. RESULTS--In women with two negative smear results estimates of protection against cervical cancer were about 50% higher when lethal invasive cancer was used as the criterion rather than all invasive cancer. This difference was due to these women being more likely to attend for further tests at which invasive cancer could be detected: screen detected cancer has a better prognosis than clinically diagnosed cancer. Screening intervals could be longer than three years: screening women aged 35-64 every five years was predicted to result in a 90% reduction in mortality from cervical cancer. CONCLUSION--Because protection from mortality is higher than protection from disease and because of the high costs and negative side effects of frequent screening, screening intervals should be longer than three years.     

Trends in advanced breast cancer incidence rates after implementation of a mammography screening program in a German population

BackgroundMammography screening programs (MSPs) aim to detect early-stage breast cancers in order to decrease the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and to reduce breast cancer mortality. We analyzed the time trends of advanced-stage breast cancer incidence rates in the target population before and after implementation of the MSP in a region of northwestern Germany.MethodsThe MSP in the Münster district started in October 2005. A total of 13,874 women with an incident invasive breast cancer (BC) was identified by the population-based epidemiological cancer registry between 2000 and 2013 in the target group 50–69 years. Multiple imputation methods were used to replace missing data on tumor stages (10.4%). The incidence rates for early-stage (UICC I) and advanced-stage (UICC II+) BC were determined, and Poisson regression analyses were performed to assess trends over time.ResultsThe incidence rates for UICC I breast cancers increased during the step-up introduction of the MSP and remained elevated thereafter. By contrast, after increasing from 2006 to 2008, the incidence rates of UICC II+ breast cancers decreased to levels below the pre-screening period. Significantly decreasing UICC II+ incidence rates were limited to the age group 55–69 years and reached levels that were significantly lower than incidence rates in the pre-screening period.DiscussionThe incidence rates of advanced-stage breast cancers decreased in the age groups from 55 years to the upper age limit for screening eligibility, but not in the adjacent age groups. The findings are consistent with MSP lead time effects and seem to indicate that the MSP lowers advanced-stage breast cancer rates in the target population.     

Effect of screening on the incidence of cervical cancer in Alberta.

The rates of registration of cases of in-situ and invasive cancer of the cervix in Alberta have fallen for women aged 35 and over since the introduction of screening in the early 1960s, as predicted by theory and described in Finland. However, for women aged 15 to 34 years of age the predicted pattern was followed only initially: the registration rate for in-situ and probably also invasive cancer increased after 1973. This could be due to an actual increase in the incidence of in-situ cancer of the cervix among younger women, as might be expected from the epidemiologic aspects of the disease, but it might also be due to increased recruitment of younger women to the screening program.     

Screening for squamous cervical cancer: duration of low risk after negative results of cervical cytology and its implication for screening policies. IARC Working Group on evaluation of cervical cancer screening programmes.

A collaborative study of screening programmes in eight countries was performed to estimate the risks of cervical cancer associated with different screening policies. Most of the data came from centrally organised screening programmes. Relative protection was higher in women who had had two or more negative results of screening tests than in those who had had only one negative smear, particularly in the first five years after the last test. There was little difference in the protection afforded by screening every year compared with every three years, but screening only once every five or 10 years offered appreciably less protection. The age of the women did not affect the sensitivity of the test or the sojourn time of the disease (the length of the detectable preclinical phase during which abnormal cytology could be picked up if a smear were taken); invasive cancer in women under 25 was rare. Centrally organised screening programmes were more effective than uncoordinated screening. Screening programmes should be aimed principally at women aged 35-60 but should start some years before the age of 35, and the intervals between screening should be three years or less.     

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CIN III) and invasive cervical carcinoma: the yawning gap revisited and the treatment of risk

In a 3-year study of the population of Southampton and south-west Hampshire there were 10 times as many cases of CIN III compared with invasive squamous carcinoma (700 compared with 70). The peak incidence of CIN III per 1000 screened women years was in those aged 25-29 years, which was 20 years earlier than the peak incidence of invasive cervical cancer per 1000 women years at risk. Ninety percent of CIN III was diagnosed in women under 50 years. There were 14 cases of cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CGIN III), three coexisting with CIN III, all in women aged under 50 years: the gap between intraepithelial and invasive lesions was not seen for glandular neoplasia. Although referral was for at least moderate dyskaryosis in 86.8% of women with CIN III or CGIN III, most had been screened previously, either having had mild abnormalities requiring repeat cytology (39.8%) or negative cytology (34.5%). Only 12 women aged > or = 50 years had previous negative cytology: 21.4% compared with 35.6% of women aged < 50 years (P = 0.034). The results of this study suggest that the best opportunity for preventing invasive squamous cell carcinoma lies in screening women aged 20-39 years when the incidence of CIN III in the screened population is highest and before the peak incidence of invasive disease. The results also indicate the importance of repeated screening and follow up of minor cytological abnormalities in the detection of CIN III. The benefit of screening must be regarded as a treatment of risk, since it is almost certain that a high proportion of CIN III regresses or persists unchanged.     

Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program

Background:

There has been growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer as a result of mammography screening. We report incidence rates in British Columbia before and after the initiation of population screening and provide estimates of overdiagnosis.

Methods:

We obtained the numbers of breast cancer diagnoses from the BC Cancer Registry and screening histories from the Screening Mammography Program of BC for women aged 30–89 years between 1970 and 2009. We calculated age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ. We compared these rates by age, calendar period and screening participation. We obtained 2 estimates of overdiagnosis from cumulative cancer rates among women between the ages of 40 and 89 years: the first estimate compared participants with nonparticipants; the second estimate compared observed and predicted population rates.

Results:

We calculated participation-based estimates of overdiagnosis to be 5.4% for invasive disease alone and 17.3% when ductal carcinoma in situ was included. The corresponding population-based estimates were −0.7% and 6.7%. Participants had higher rates of invasive cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ than nonparticipants but lower rates after screening stopped. Population incidence rates for invasive cancer increased after 1980; by 2009, they had returned to levels similar to those of the 1970s among women under 60 years of age but remained elevated among women 60–79 years old. Rates of ductal carcinoma in situ increased in all age groups.

Interpretation:

The extent of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer in our study population was modest and primarily occurred among women over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated for all age groups. The estimation of overdiagnosis from observational data is complex and subject to many influences. The use of mammography screening in older women has an increased risk of overdiagnosis, which should be considered in screening decisions.There is growing interest in the overdiagnosis of breast cancer resulting from mammography screening.^1,2 It has been suggested that incidence rates after the introduction of mammography screening are higher than would be expected from the early detection of clinically significant disease alone. The clinical importance of ductal carcinoma in situ has long been unclear, and recent attention has also focused on the potential overdiagnosis of invasive cancer.^1,3,4 Furthermore, more frequent screening, wider age ranges and higher false-positive rates in much of North America may result in increased overdiagnosis⁵ in comparison with Europe, the source of most reports.The Screening Mammography Program of BC provides bilateral 2-view mammography screening to female residents of British Columbia. The program began in 1988 at a single location and progressively expanded by adding centres in larger communities and extending mobile services; by 2000, geographic coverage was effectively 100%. Women aged 40–79 years are eligible to self-refer. Since 1997, women aged 40–49 years are reminded to return annually, and those over 50 years of age are reminded to return biennially. Women outside of this age-range can undergo screening with a physician’s referral. Rates of abnormal results on screening mammography in British Columbia are comparable to the community rates seen in the United States.⁶Our primary objective for this study was to estimate the extent of overdiagnosis of breast cancer due to screening. To do this, we examined cancer rates in the following subpopulations: all women 1970–1979, and women in 2005–2009 classified by active and nonactive participation in screening. From 1970 to 1979, screening was infrequent and no organized program existed. In the period 2005–2009, screening was well established and the use of hormone replacement therapy for menopause had declined.⁷ Our secondary objective was to determine the changes in population incidence of breast cancer, both invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ, following the implementation of a population-based screening program. Thus, we report an analysis of population age-specific incidence rates in British Columbia over a 40-year period (1970–2009).     

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman''s lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more.     

Trends in breast cancer mortality in Sweden before and after implementation of mammography screening

Background

Incidence-based mortality modelling comparing the risk of breast cancer death in screened and unscreened women in nine Swedish counties has suggested a 39% risk reduction in women 40 to 69 years old after introduction of mammography screening in the 1980s and 1990s.

Objective

We evaluated changes in breast cancer mortality in the same nine Swedish counties using a model approach based on official Swedish breast cancer mortality statistics, robust to effects of over-diagnosis and treatment changes. Using mortality data from the NordCan database from 1974 until 2003, we estimated the change in breast cancer mortality before and after introduction of mammography screening in at least the 13 years that followed screening start.

Results

Breast mortality decreased by 16% (95% CI: 9 to 22%) in women 40 to 69, and by 11% (95% CI: 2 to 20%) in women 40 to 79 years of age.

Discussion

Without individual data it is impossible to completely separate the effects of improved treatment and health service organisation from that of screening, which would bias our results in favour of screening. There will also be some contamination of post-screening mortality from breast cancer diagnosed prior to screening, beyond our attempts to adjust for delayed benefit. This would bias against screening. However, our estimates from publicly available data suggest considerably lower benefits than estimates based on comparison of screened versus non-screened women.     

Risk of cancer of the breast after legal abortion during first trimester: a Swedish register study.

An increase in induced abortions in Sweden has been accompanied by an increase in the incidence of breast cancer of about 40% in women aged 20-44. To assess whether the apparent risk is real the risk of breast cancer was investigated in practically all Swedish women with a history of a legal abortion in the first trimester before the age of 30 during 1966-74 (n = 49,000). The cohort was followed up in the Swedish cancer register to identify cases of breast cancer diagnosed more than five years after the abortion until the end of 1984. The number of observed cases of breast cancer was 65 compared with an expected number of 84.5, estimated from the contemporary Swedish population with due consideration to age, giving a relative risk of 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.99). Contrary to most earlier reports, this study did not indicate any overall increased risk of breast cancer after an induced abortion in the first trimester in young women.     

Age as a factor in breast cancer knowledge,attitudes and screening behaviour.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are age-related differences in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer and whether the differences reflect the age-specific Canadian recommendations on breast cancer screening. DESIGN: Telephone survey. SETTING: Two cities and five towns and their surrounding areas in Alberta. PARTICIPANTS: The age-specific, randomly selected sample comprised 1284 women aged 40 to 75 years who did not have breast cancer. Of the 1741 eligible women who were contacted, 1350 (78%) agreed to participate; 66 were excluded because of age ineligibility or a history of breast cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Frequency of knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer, by age group. RESULTS: Knowledge of breast cancer risk factors was generally low and decreased with age. Few women were aware of the Canadian recommendations on breast self-examination, physical examination of the breasts by a health care practitioner and mammographic screening. Older women believed they were less susceptible to breast cancer than younger women and were less likely to have positive attitudes toward screening. Self-examination was performed 9 to 15 times per year by 424 women (33%), and 810 (63%) had been examined by a health care professional in the past year. Although 664 (52%) had undergone mammography, the proportion decreased with age after age 59. The main barriers to mammography were lack of physician referral and the woman''s belief that the procedure is unnecessary if she is healthy. CONCLUSIONS: Education is needed to increase breast cancer knowledge, promote the Canadian recommendations for early detection of breast cancer and decrease negative beliefs about the disease. Changes in the behaviour of women and physicians are needed to increase the use of breast self-examination, clinical breast examination by a health care professional and mammographic screening. Reaching women in the upper range (60 to 69 years) of the target group for mammographic screening should be a focus in promoting early detection of breast cancer.     

Is mammography indicated for women with defective BRCA genes? Implications of recent scientific advances for the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of hereditary breast cancer

About 5% of breast cancer patients have inherited their disease because of a mutation in genes encoding either the BRCA-1 or BRCA-2 proteins. Inheriting one of these mutations confers a 50% to 87% risk of breast cancer. Many physicians faced with such a patient would, at a minimum, suggest increased and earlier screening for breast cancer by routine mammography.[1] Normally, regular mammographic screening combined with appropriate and prompt treatment can reduce mortality from breast cancer by 30% in women aged 50-59 years and by about 14%-18% in women aged 40-49. There are no controlled clinical trials for screening young women who have multiple first-degree relatives developing breast cancer before age 45, or those known to carry BRCA-1 or BRCA-2 mutations. In fact, recent advances point out that BRCA-1 and BRCA-2 gene products are needed to repair radiation damage to DNA.[4,5] Based on this finding, I propose that women with defective BRCA genes are likely to have an inordinate sensitivity to radiation, and this raises a question about the advisability of routinely screening these women by frequent mammography.     

Cervical cancer screening: A Slovenian experience

In Slovenia, opportunistic screening was introduced in regular gynaecological practice in 1960. The proportion of population screened was unknown, as well as there were no standards for quality assurance and control. Despite great number of smears read, there were no major changes in invasive cervical cancer incidence in the period 1979 till 1993, but in 1994 the incidence rate started to increase again to reach its peak in 1997 (23,1/100.000, 241 new cases). Based on the experiences from the countries with effectively organised screening programmes, a decision was made in 1996 by the Minister of Health to nominate a group of experts to prepare a proposal for organised cervical cancer screening programme after testing the methodology in pilot study. In the pilot the central computerised information system (Screening Registry) was gradually established to register all smears from the whole country, to identify women who do not attend for screening to send them invitation for screening and to monitor screening activity and its quality. The aim of pilot was also to develop guidelines for quality assurance and control of all procedures involved in cervical cancer screening and treatment of intraepithelial lesions. In three years since the beginning of the national programme, nearly 70% of women in the target age group were registered with at least one smear. All other results are presented in regular programme reports. There is still place for further development of the programme, but the incidence of cervical cancer already started to decline especially among younger women, who attend for screening more often than those aged over 50.     

Mammography screening in the county of Fyn. November 1993-December 1999

This report covers the outcome of the first three invitation rounds of the organised mammography screening programme in the county of Fyn. The programme started in November 1993, and the third invitation round ended on 31 December 1999. The screening takes place either at a special clinic located at University Hospital Odense or in a mobile unit. Women living in and around the city of Odense are examined at the clinic (about 55%), while the rest are examined in the mobile unit. Two-view mammography is used at the first screening. Women with dense breast tissue will continue to have two-view mammography (about 60%), whereas the rest will have singleview mammography at the subsequent screens. All screening images are exposed at the mammography-screening clinic and evaluated with double reading in the clinic. The programme targets women aged 50-69, except those undergoing treatment for breast cancer or going for regular check-ups following breast cancer. Based on the updated population register, the IT-Centre of the county of Fyn issues the invitations. Invited are all women aged 50-69 and living in the county of Fyn when their general practitioners' patients are invited. During the first 3 invitation rounds, 136,079 screening tests were made. Of these, 129,375 tests were made in the women aged 50-69 targeted by the programme. In addition, 6682 screening tests were made in women aged 70 and above, and 22 screening tests were made in women below the age of 50. As a consequence of the mammography screening 2657 assessments were made, 1145 women had surgery, 782 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer, and 109 women were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ. A participation rate for the first invitation round was calculated immediately after the end of the round based on the number of participants divided by the number of women invited. This percentage was 88%. Invitation data are, however, not stored. It is therefore not possible now to calculate the participation rates in previous invitation rounds based on the same method. We have therefore chosen to calculate the participation rate as the coverage, i.e. the number of participants divided by the average number of women in the county of Fyn during a given invitation round. Calculated in this way, 84% participated in the first round, 84% in the second round, and 82% in the third round. It should be remembered that these figures do not take into account that some women are not invited because they 1) were undergoing current treatment for breast cancer or going for regular check-ups following breast cancer, or 2) did not participate in the previous round (and never actively informed the programme that they wanted an invitation to the next invitation round), relevant only for the second and third invitation round. For the second and third invitation rounds, the programme only invited women who participated in the previous invitation round, asked the clinic for an invitation, or entered the target population since the last invitation round. Therefore the participation rate in the second invitation round among actually invited women will be close to 94%, as 94% of those participating in the first round came for the second round. For the third invitation round, the participation rate among actually invited women will be close to 96%, as 96% of those participating in the first and second rounds came for the third round. One per cent of the participants in the first invitation round were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ. The detection rate was 0.5% in both the second and third invitation rounds. Ductal carcinoma in situ cases constituted 14% of the detected cases in the first and second rounds, and 10% in the third round. The percentage of invasive breast cancer 10 mm of less was 38%, 31%, and 32%, respectively, and 68%, 74%, and 73%, respectively, were node-negative. The screening programme of the county of Fyn fulfilled all the quality assessment parameters specified by the European guidelines on breast cancer screening, except two. The proportionate interval cancer rate was higher than specified in the guidelines, probably mainly due to the fact that the Fyn programme operates without early recalls. The proportion of stage II+ cancers was higher than specified in the guidelines, which seems, however, to be due to inconsistency between some of the performance indicators in the European guidelines. This analysis of the outcome from the first three invitation rounds of the mammography screening programme in the county of Fyn thus showed that it is a programme of high quality with a favourable profile of the prognostic indicators. The screening programme is hopefully well on its way to reducing breast cancer mortality in the county of Fyn.     

Long term risk of invasive cancer after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3: population based cohort study

Objective To study the long term risk of invasive cancer of the cervix or vagina after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Swedish cancer registry.Participants All women in Sweden with severe dysplasia or cervical carcinoma in situ (equivalent to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3) treated during 1958-2002 (n=132 493) contributing 2 315 724 woman years.Main outcome measures Standardised incidence ratios with risk of cancer in the Swedish general female population as reference, and relative risks in multivariable log-linear regression model, with internal references.Results Women with previous cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 had an increased risk of invasive cervical cancer compared with the general female population (standardised incidence ratio 2.34, 95% confidence interval 2.18 to 2.50). The increased risk showed a decreasing trend with time since diagnosis for women treated later than 1970 but the risk was still increased after 25 years. An effect of age was found, with an accentuated increase in risk for women aged more than 50. The excess risk for cervical cancer associated with previous cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 has steadily increased since 1958. For vaginal cancer the standardised incidence ratio was 6.82 (5.61 to 8.21) but this decreased to 2.65 after 25 years. Adjustments in the multivariable log-linear regression model did not substantially alter these results.Conclusions Women previously treated for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 are at an increased risk of developing invasive cervical cancer and vaginal cancer. This risk has increased since the 1960s and is accentuated in women aged more than 50. The risk is still increased 25 years after treatment.     

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the Loire-Atlantique,France: A decline since 2003

Background: A recent decline in breast cancer incidence rates has been reported in the United States and in Europe. This decrease has been partly attributed to the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). No study in Europe has detailed recent breast cancer incidence trends both by hormonal receptor status and mode of detection at an individual level. Methods: We examined trends in breast cancer incidence rates in the French administrative area of Loire-Atlantique between 1991 and 2007, by age, mode of detection, histological subtype, estrogen/progesterone receptor (ER/PR) status and grade. Annual age-standardized breast cancer incidence rates were estimated using the Loire-Atlantique and Vendée Cancer Registry data. Annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated using an age-adjusted Poisson regression model. Results: Incidence rates of breast cancer increased 3.5% per year in 1991–2003, dropped ?4.3% per year in 2003–2006 and increased in 2007 (9.1%). Stratified analyses by age groups showed that the decrease concerned predominantly women aged 50–64 years, whereas an increasing proportion of cancers detected by organized screening was observed in this age group. Among these women, the decline of incidence particularly concerned positive estrogen and progesterone receptor tumors, lobular subtype tumors, and low-grade tumors. Conclusion: The drop in breast cancer incidence rates observed between 2003 and 2006 in women 50–64 years old was greater for ER+PR+ tumors. During the same period, the incidence of breast cancers diagnosed by organized screening increased. These patterns appear consistent with an impact of the reduced use of HRT.     

Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur. DESIGN--(a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general''s (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case. SETTING--North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland). SUBJECTS--Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991. RESULTS--There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death. CONCLUSIONS--Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.