Adaptive significance of hatching rhythms and dispersal patterns of estuarine crab larvae: avoidance of physiological stress by larval export?

Estuarine crabs commonly display two larval dispersal patterns in which larvae are either exported from or retained within estuaries. The semiterrestrial fiddler crab Uca minax (LeConte, 1855) hatches on nocturnal spring high tides in the upper estuary and larvae are rapidly transported downstream. The mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii (Gould, 1841) hatches on nocturnal high tides of any amplitude and larvae are retained behaviorally in the upper estuary throughout development. If larvae are exported from the estuary to avoid environmental stress, then exported larvae should be less tolerant of high temperatures and low salinities than retained larvae. Larvae of these two species of estuarine crabs were hatched at 20‰ and 25 °C and subjected to salinities of 0, 5, 10,20, and 30‰, temperatures of 25 and 35 °C, and exposure times of 2, 6, 12, and 48 h. Larvae of both species reared at 30 or 20‰ survived well, while those reared in fresh water all died within 2 h regardless of temperature. Mud crab larvae reared at 5 and 10‰ survived better at the lower temperature (25 °C), higher salinity, and shorter exposure times. There was no significant effect of temperature or salinity on the survival of fiddler crab larvae, although survival decreased with increasing exposure time. Thus, the hypothesis that fiddler crab larvae are exported into stable coastal waters to reduce physiological stress is not supported. However, fiddler crab larvae may have evolved to be very tolerant of extreme temperature and salinity stress because they, unlike mud crabs, often release their larvae into shallow creeks. Most fiddler crab larvae are released on nocturnal spring high tides, which facilitates dispersal from tidal creeks. However, freshwater runoff and heat transferred from the marsh surface to flooding waters may still create stressful conditions for larvae soon after they are released. Larval release on spring high tides may facilitate dispersal from tidal creeks.     

Developmental shift in the selective tidal-stream transport behavior of larvae of the fiddler crab Uca minax (LeConte)

Following hatching, larvae of the fiddler crab Uca minax (La Conte) are exported from the adult habitat in estuaries to coastal and shelf waters where they undergo development prior to re-entering estuaries as postlarvae (megalopae). Studies of the spatial distribution of both newly hatched zoeae (Stage I) and megalopae indicate they undergo rhythmic vertical migrations associated with the tides for dispersal and unidirectional transport (selective tidal-stream transport) both within estuaries and between estuaries and the nearshore coastal ocean. We tested the hypothesis that U. minax zoeae possess a circatidal rhythm in vertical migration that facilitates offshore transport in ebb tidal flows, while postlarvae (megalopae) return to estuaries using a similar flood-phased endogenous rhythm. We also determined if the expression of the rhythm was influenced by the salinity conditions zoeae and megalopae experience as they transition between low-salinity regions of estuaries and high-salinity coastal waters. Stage I zoeae were collected by holding ovigerous female crabs in the lab until hatching. Megalopae were collected from the plankton and identified to species using molecular techniques (PCR-RFLP). Under constant laboratory conditions, both zoeae and megalopae exhibited endogenous circatidal rhythms in swimming that matched the principal harmonic constituent of the local tides (12.39 ± 0.07 h; X¯ ± SE). Upward swimming in Stage I zoeae occurred 2.5-4 h after high tide near the time of expected maximum ebb currents in the field. Rhythmic swimming of megalopae occurred slightly earlier in the tide (2.5 ± 0.09 h after high tide; X¯ ± SE) but was not entirely synchronized with flood currents, as expected. Salinity conditions had no apparent effect on the expression or pattern of the rhythms. Results indicate that this circatidal rhythm forms the behavioral basis of selective tidal-stream transport (STST) in early stage U. minax zoeae, but does not undergo a sufficient phase shift to account for vertical distribution patterns exhibited by megalopae in the field.     

Endogenous rhythms and entrainment cues of larval activity in the horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus

The American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus (Linnaeus), typically inhabits estuaries and coastal areas with pronounced semi-diurnal and diurnal tides that are used to synchronize the timing of spawning, larval hatching, and emergence. Horseshoe crabs spawn in the intertidal zone of sandy beaches and larval emergence occurs when the larvae exit the sediments and enter the plankton. However, L. polyphemus populations also occur in areas that lack significant tidal changes and associated synchronization cues. Endogenous activity rhythms that match predictable environmental cycles may enable larval horseshoe crabs to time swimming activity to prevent stranding on the beach. To determine if L. polyphemus larvae possess a circatidal rhythm in vertical swimming, larvae collected from beach nests and the plankton were placed under constant conditions and their activity monitored for 72 h. Time-series analyses of the activity records revealed a circatidal rhythm with a free-running period of ≈ 12.5 h. Maximum swimming activity consistently occurred during the time of expected falling tides, which may serve to reduce the chance of larvae being stranded on the beach and aid in seaward transport by ebb currents (i.e., ebb-tide transport). To determine if agitation serves as the entrainment cue, larvae were shaken on a 12.4 h cycle to simulate conditions during high tide in areas with semi-diurnal tides. When placed under constant conditions, larval swimming increased near the expected times of agitation. Thus, endogenous rhythms of swimming activity of L. polyphemus larvae in both tidal and nontidal systems may help synchronize swimming activity with periods of high water and inundation.     

Establishing Restoration Strategy of Eastern Oyster via a Coupled Biophysical Transport Model

For marine fish and invertebrates, larval dispersal plays a critical role in determining connections among source and sink habitats, and the lack of a predictive understanding of larval dispersal is a fundamental obstacle to the development of spatially explicit restoration plans for marine populations. We investigated larval dispersal patterns of eastern oyster in an estuary along the Northern Gulf of Mexico under different simulation scenarios of tidal amplitude and phase, river discharge, wind direction, and larval vertical migration, using a coupled biophysical transport model. We focused on the dispersal of larvae released from the commercially exploited (Cedar Point, CP) and non‐exploited (Bon Secour Bay, BSB) oyster populations. We found that high flushing rates through the dominant inlet prevented larval exchange between the commercially exploited and non‐exploited populations, resulting in negligible connectivity between them. Variations in tidal amplitude, river discharge and wind direction played a more important role in the amount of larvae retained in Mobile Bay when they are released from CP than from BSB. Under most of the scenarios, larvae from BSB were retained around the spawning area, while larvae from CP showed a predominant westward flow. Net sinking behavior of late‐stage larvae increased larval retention in the bay, but physical transport showed a higher impact in the amount of larvae retained. These findings have enhanced our understanding of larval dispersal of eastern oyster in a wide, shallow estuarine system, and been used to establish spatially explicit strategies for oyster restoration in the Mobile Bay system, Alabama.     

The vertical and transverse distribution of larval herring in the River Blackwater estuary, Essex

The vertical and transverse distributions of spring-spawned larval herring were studied in the River Blackwater estuary, Essex. Sampling was undertaken during May when larval densities within the estuary were at a maximum for the year. At this time, larval lengths were in the range 7–16 mm. No clear diel pattern in the vertical distribution was found, although larval distribution at night was more even.
The tides were found to influence the vertical distribution. Surface waters (< 1.5 m in depth) were avoided during both flood and ebb tides, but used during slack water. Larval densities at ebb were higher near the sea bed than during the flood tide. It was concluded that this behaviour will tend to transport larvae into and retain them within the estuary.     

A modelling study of the respective role of hydrodynamic processes and larval mortality on larval dispersal and recruitment of benthic invertebrates: example of Pectinaria koreni (Annelida: Polychaeta) in the Bay of Seine (English Channel)

The dispersal of Pectinaria koreni larvae released from theeastern Bay of Seine (English Channel) was studied using a two-dimensionalhydrodynamic model which integrates tides, wind-driven currentsand eddy diffusion, in order to examine the influence of environmentalforcing and mortality on larval population dynamics. A broadagreement between predicted larval dispersal for two spawningevents observed in 1987 and field data suggests that numericalmodelling may be useful to analyse processes involved in thetransport and the dynamics of larval populations. Larval mortalitymay be as important as hydrodynamic processes on larval lossesfor the adult population. Tides and eddy diffusion had someeffects on larval dispersal, but wind forcing and the timingof spawning in relation to the meteorological environment arepredicted to be the main source of variability in larval dispersalrates. Although wind-induced larval transport may produce interannualvariations in larval retention and recruitment, predicted retentionrates were always sufficient to ensure the maintenance of theadult population, regardless of hydrodynamic conditions. Thelong-range transport of larvae from the eastern Bay of Seineto distant populations was conditioned by constant strong winds,lasting 15 consecutive days, and should be considered an extremelyrare event.     

Fish larval supply to and within a lagoonal estuary: multiple sources for Barnegat Bay,New Jersey

We evaluated spatial variation in fish larval supply to a temperate, lagoon type estuary (Barnegat Bay, New Jersey) by determining species composition, size, and stage into inlets (n = 2), thoroughfares between adjacent estuaries (n = 3), and within the estuary (n = 4) in seasonal, synoptic sampling on night time flood tides during 2010–2014. Larval supply, as sampled with identical plankton nets (1 m diameter, 1 mm mesh) was dominated by post-flexion stage individuals (most 5–10 but reaching 70+ mm) from species spawned in the Atlantic Ocean from a variety of sources (e.g., Sargasso Sea, outer and inner continental shelf) and in the bay. While abundance for individual species varied among locations and years, in general, the larval composition was similar across inlets, thoroughfares, and within the bay within the same seasons. Homogenization across locations was likely the result of the tidal exchanges between the ocean, the estuary, and the adjacent locations. These exchanges provide numerous, redundant sources of larvae to this estuarine nursery. The similarity in larval supply among inlets, thoroughfares, and within the estuary indicates that the longer term study location behind Little Egg Inlet is representative for this, and probably other, estuaries along the New Jersey shore.     

Dispersal Patterns,Active Behaviour,and Flow Environment during Early Life History of Coastal Cold Water Fishes

During the pelagic larval phase, fish dispersal may be influenced passively by surface currents or actively determined by swimming behaviour. In situ observations of larval swimming are few given the constraints of field sampling. Active behaviour is therefore often inferred from spatial patterns in the field, laboratory studies, or hydrodynamic theory, but rarely are these approaches considered in concert. Ichthyoplankton survey data collected during 2004 and 2006 from coastal Newfoundland show that changes in spatial heterogeneity for multiple species do not conform to predictions based on passive transport. We evaluated the interaction of individual larvae with their environment by calculating Reynolds number as a function of ontogeny. Typically, larvae hatch into a viscous environment in which swimming is inefficient, and later grow into more efficient intermediate and inertial swimming environments. Swimming is therefore closely related to length, not only because of swimming capacity but also in how larvae experience viscosity. Six of eight species sampled demonstrated consistent changes in spatial patchiness and concomitant increases in spatial heterogeneity as they transitioned into more favourable hydrodynamic swimming environments, suggesting an active behavioural element to dispersal. We propose the tandem assessment of spatial heterogeneity and hydrodynamic environment as a potential approach to understand and predict the onset of ecologically significant swimming behaviour of larval fishes in the field.     

Effects of river flow on larval growth and survival of Japanese seaperch Lateolabrax japonicus (Pisces) in the Chikugo River estuary, upper Ariake Bay

The abundance and growth history of larval and juvenile Japanese seaperch Lateolabrax japonicus were investigated in the Chikugo River estuary, upper Ariake Bay, from 1990 to 2000. Growth during the larval period (up to 15 mm standard length, L _S, the size at recruitment into the estuary) was backcalculated using sagittal otolith microstructures by the biological intercept method. Growth rates in length declined at body sizes >14 mm L _S. High freshwater discharge through the Chikugo River was associated with high temperatures of the upper Ariake Bay where the larvae spend their planktonic life. Mean larval stage duration (days) from hatch to 15 mm ( D ₁₅) varied between 48·8 and 76·2 days and was inversely correlated with the estimated mean temperature history [mean daily temperature (° C) experienced by the larvae during the period from hatch to 15 mm, T ₁₅]. Mean abundance (number m⁻²) of larvae and juveniles was highest in years when T ₁₅, D ₁₅ and freshwater discharge were at intermediate levels. Although the abundance was not correlated with either of these variables, an exponential relationship between abundance and D ₁₅ was found when data collected during the highest river discharge years (1990, 1991 and 1998) were excluded. The increase in freshwater discharge through the Chikugo River probably had the potential to enhance or diminish Japanese seaperch recruitment in two ways: 1) it could increase recruitment probability by increasing temperature and larval growth and 2) high river flow also had the potential to decrease the probability of immigration into the river by increasing larval seaward dispersion, predation due to decreased turbidity and starvation due to decreased zooplankton prey abundance in the estuary.     

Behavior of larval Hemigrapsus sanguineus (de Haan) in response to gravity and pressure

Hemigrapsus sanguineus is an invasive species of crab (family: Grapsidae) in the north Atlantic basin. The species has spread rapidly since it was first discovered in North America in the late 1980s; however, the mechanisms of this range expansion remain unclear. This study attempts to predict the vertical distribution and, thus, ultimate transport of H. sanguineus larvae by examining larval responses to gravity and pressure. Geotaxis was determined by measuring the response of individual larvae to gravity in the absence of other tactic stimuli. Barokinesis was determined by measuring changes in swimming speed of larvae upon step-wise changes in pressure. Geotactic response of the larvae changes ontogenetically; early stage larvae are negatively geotactic (orienting towards the surface), while late stage larvae are positively geotactic (orienting towards the bottom). Larvae show a response to pressure that would aid in depth regulation. Early-stage larvae increase activity upon a change in pressure and orient their movement to gravity. However, the larvae show a relatively low sensitivity to pressure change. The evidence predicts an export-and-return model of larval transport, similar to that of Uca spp. in the Middle Atlantic Bight. This model supports the hypothesis that H. sanguineus larvae have the potential for high dispersal and will continue to invade new regions through larval transport.     

Travel with your kin ship! Insights from genetic sibship among settlers of a coral damselfish

Coral reef fish larvae are tiny, exceedingly numerous, and hard to track. They are also highly capable, equipped with swimming and sensory abilities that may influence their dispersal trajectories. Despite the importance of larval input to the dynamics of a population, we remain reliant on indirect insights to the processes influencing larval behavior and transport. Here, we used genetic data (300 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms) derived from a light trap sample of a single recruitment event of Dascyllus abudafur in the Red Sea (N = 168 settlers). We analyzed the genetic composition of the larvae and assessed whether kinship among these was significantly different from random as evidence for cohesive dispersal during the larval phase. We used Monte Carlo simulations of similar‐sized recruitment cohorts to compare the expected kinship composition relative to our empirical data. The high number of siblings within the empirical cohort strongly suggests cohesive dispersal among larvae. This work highlights the utility of kinship analysis as a means of inferring dynamics during the pelagic larval phase.     

Can bivalve veligers escape feeding currents of adult bivalves?

While the stock of introduced Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) increased in the Oosterschelde estuary (SW Netherlands), so did the filtration pressure of all bivalve species together. In the same period, stocks of native bivalves declined slightly. The expansion of Pacific oysters in Dutch estuaries might be partially due to better abilities of their larvae to avoid or escape filtration, compared to larvae of native bivalves. In this context, escape and swimming abilities of Pacific oyster larvae and the larvae of the native blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) were compared.Swimming behaviour of C. gigas larvae and larvae of M. edulis was recorded in still water and in a suction current mimicking a bivalve feeding current, in a horizontal and in a vertical plane. Larval swimming behaviour in a suction flow field was reconstructed by subtracting local water movement vectors from the total movement of larvae, yielding movement paths due to larval swimming alone.Swimming speeds and the rate of displacement in vertical direction of C. gigas and M. edulis larvae were related to larval shell length, and to the pitch of up- or downward swimming.Larvae of both species did not show escape reactions in a suction flow field. With increasing shell length, larval swimming speeds of both species increased significantly. Swimming speeds of C. gigas larvae were significantly higher than swimming speeds of M. edulis larvae, resulting in a faster vertical displacement. The ability to migrate to more favourable water layers faster may offer C. gigas an advantage over native bivalves with slower swimming larvae.     

Patterns and processes of larval emergence in an estuarine parasite system

Trematode parasites in intertidal estuaries experience constantly varying conditions, with the presence or absence of water potentially limiting larval transport between hosts. Given the short life spans (< or =24 h) of cercariae, emergence timing should be optimized to enhance the probability of successful transmission. In the present study, field measurements and laboratory experiments identified processes that regulate the emergence of cercariae from their first intermediate snail hosts in an intertidal marsh. Larvae emerged over species-specific temperature ranges, exclusively during daylight hours, and only when snails were submerged. The three factors operate over different temporal scales: temperature monthly, light diurnally (24-h period), and water depth tidally (12-h period). Each stimulus creates a necessary condition for the next, forming a hierarchy of environmental cues. Emergence as the tide floods would favor transport within the estuary, and light may trigger direct (downward or upward) swimming toward host habitats. Abbreviated dispersal would retain asexually reproduced cercariae within the marsh, and local mixing would diversify the gene pool of larvae encysting on subsequent hosts. In contrast to the timing of cercarial release, emergence duration was under endogenous control. Duration of emergence decreased from sunrise to sunset, perhaps in response to the diminishing lighted interval as the day progresses. Circadian rhythms that control cercarial emergence of freshwater species (including schistosomes) are often set by the activity patterns of subsequent hosts. In this estuary, however, the synchronizing agent is the tides. Together, exogenous and endogenous factors control emergence of trematode cercariae, mitigating the vagaries of an intertidal environment.     

Species composition and distribution of summer ichthyoplankton in Chupa Estuary (Kandalaksha Bay of the White Sea)

On the basis of ichthyoplankton surveys performed in July 2002 and June 2004–2005 in Chupa Estuary and adjacent waters of Kandalaksha Bay, species composition and distribution of eggs and larvae of fish were studied. Early stages of development of seven fish species were found in the composition of ichthyoplankton. The bulk of abundance of ichthyoplankton was formed of Clupea pallasii marisalbi larvae. It was shown that the sites of aggregation of larval C. pallasii marisalbi from June to July are constant and located in the central and preestuarine areas of Chupa Estuary. Possible routes of their passive migrations within Chupa Estuary and the adjacent water area of Kandalaksha Bay are considered. It is suggested that the drift of larvae beyond the estuary proceeds slowly, and after hatching they can long stay in the estuary concentrating in its central and preestuarine areas.     

Larval retention and dynamics of the prawns Palaemon longirostris H. Milne Edwards and Crangon crangon Linnaeus (Decapoda,Caridea) in the Mira estuary,Portugal

Summary

Palaemon longirostris and Crangon crangon larval and post-larval stages were collected intensively in two 24-h cycles during neap and spring tidal periods in a fixed station located in the mid-Mira estuary (southwest Portugal). In each case, on the previous day, horizontal distribution of larval stages was studied in a series of 20 stations from the mouth of the estuary to near freshwater. Horizontal distribution of the discrete instars of both species were similar, suggesting larval retention. Results from the 24-h cycles indicate a semilunar cycle of larval release activity, and an initial displacement of the larvae from the parental stock, as newly-hatched larvae concentrate in the surface layer of the water column on post-crepuscular ebbing tides. The sequence of larval stages tends to be progressively more dependent of the bottom layers, and the whole larval and post-larval development is accomplished within the estuarine boundaries. Larval release cycles, coupled with duration of development and progressive change in vertical position, induce mutual exclusion of different aged larvae, which may minimise cannibalistic behaviour and competition between larvae with different capabilities.     

Swimming Speed of Larval Snail Does Not Correlate with Size and Ciliary Beat Frequency

Many marine invertebrates have planktonic larvae with cilia used for both propulsion and capturing of food particles. Hence, changes in ciliary activity have implications for larval nutrition and ability to navigate the water column, which in turn affect survival and dispersal. Using high-speed high-resolution microvideography, we examined the relationship between swimming speed, velar arrangements, and ciliary beat frequency of freely swimming veliger larvae of the gastropod Crepidula fornicata over the course of larval development. Average swimming speed was greatest 6 days post hatching, suggesting a reduction in swimming speed towards settlement. At a given age, veliger larvae have highly variable speeds (0.8–4 body lengths s⁻¹) that are independent of shell size. Contrary to the hypothesis that an increase in ciliary beat frequency increases work done, and therefore speed, there was no significant correlation between swimming speed and ciliary beat frequency. Instead, there are significant correlations between swimming speed and visible area of the velar lobe, and distance between centroids of velum and larval shell. These observations suggest an alternative hypothesis that, instead of modifying ciliary beat frequency, larval C. fornicata modify swimming through adjustment of velum extension or orientation. The ability to adjust velum position could influence particle capture efficiency and fluid disturbance and help promote survival in the plankton.     

Tidal dispersal of salt marsh insect larvae within the Westerschelde estuary

In the Westerschelde estuary, salt marshes are present as isolated patches fringing the estuary. In the present paper tidal transport of stem-boring larvae of Agapanthia villosoviridescens (Coleoptera) from salt marshes of the upper reaches of the Westerschelde estuary to marshes of the lower reaches is demonstrated. The evidence for the origin of the larvae is based on comparisons of growth and development characteristics of larvae found in flood debris belts and resident larval populations. These characteristics are different on the various salt marshes along the Westerschelde, probably as a result of estuarine gradients. Additional evidence for the larval origin comes from the plant composition of the flood debris. The occurrence of upward tidal transport is discussed. Considering the comparatively large area of salt marshes in the upper estuary, tidal dispersal of larvae probably will be dominated by transport in seaward direction. So far, very little is known on the role of tidal currents with regard to the exchange between salt marsh populations. The present results suggest that tidal transport may not only be important for dispersal of aquatic organisms in an estuary, but also for organisms inhabiting the semi-terrestrial estuarine salt marshes.     

Growth Inhibitory Nature of Artemisia annua Extract against Culex quinquefasciatus (Say)

Petroleum ether (Pee), carbon tetrachloride (Cte) and methanol extract (Mee) of Artemisia annua, Chenopodium album and Sonchus oleraceus were screened for their efficacy against Culex quinquefasciatus larvae. Pee of A. annua, Mee of A. annua and Ch. album, Cte of A. Annua were found effective in descending order after 24 and 48 hrs of treatment. Pee of A. annua, the most potent extract with LC₅₀ 78.2 ppm was selected to study its influence on the development and metamorphosis of the culicine mosquito. The extract significantly affected the hatching, larval development, pupal transformation and also lengthened the larval and pupal periods. Growth index was remarkably reduced. Treated culicine eggs, larvae and pupae showed deformities including disruption of the body wall, distorted alimentary canal, damaged tracheal network and arrested histogenesis. The extract has remarkable effect on the metamorphosis and high larvicidal potential, hence, can be used as an effective alternative to the existing synthetic pesticides for the control of Cx. quinquefasciatus.     

The effect of flow on larval vertical distribution of the sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis

Most meroplanktonic larvae have been considered to behave as passive particles in the water column, and their dispersal determined by advection. However, larvae may influence their horizontal transport by sinking or swimming between overlying water masses. The flow conditions under which larvae influence their vertical distribution through depth regulation are presently unclear. Using an annular flume, we examined the effect of increasing flow, repeated exposure to flow, and acceleration and deceleration on the vertical distribution of 4-arm stage echinoplutei of Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. Specifically, we generated different levels of vertical velocity and shear strengths by manipulating horizontal velocity (u). We increased and decreased flow speed incrementally from no flow (u = 0 cm s^− 1) to intermediate flow (u = 0.48 cm s^− 1) to high flow (u = 1.02 cm s^− 1) for each of 3 cycles within each of 2 independent trials. We used a high resolution digital camera to record, and image-analysis to quantify, larval distribution. In the absence of flow, larvae swam upwards and aggregated near the surface of the flume. With increasing flow, increasing numbers of larvae were observed in the mid to low water column indicating a negative influence on larval ability to aggregate near the surface. No differences were observed between distributions in acceleration and deceleration phases of the cycles; however, results suggest that increased exposure can decrease the ability of larvae to regulate their vertical position over time. Vertical shear can result in the re-orientation of swimming larvae and likely compromised larval ability for directed swimming in our study. The threshold shear level beyond which larvae cannot regulate their vertical position is > 2 s^− 1, suggesting that echinoid larvae may be more vulnerable to shear than other weak swimmers, most likely because of their shape. However, echinoid larvae can likely influence their vertical distribution within many areas in the ocean, since shears > 2 s^− 1 are present only in highly turbulent regions such as fronts.     

Model-derived dispersal pathways from multiple source populations explain variability of invertebrate larval supply

Background

Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a bio-physical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p<0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of −6 to +5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p<0.001, and r = 0.79, p<0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality.

Conclusions/Significance

The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provide meaningful predictions of the patterns and causes of fine-scale variability in larval supply to marine populations.