Invasion dynamics and potential spread of the invasive alien plant species Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) in China

Ageratina adenophora (Sprengel) R. King & H. Robinson (=Eupatorium adenophorum Sprengel) is one of the worst invasive alien species in China. Since A. adenophora was first noticed in Yunnan Province of China in the 1940s, its rapid spread has caused an ecological problem in south‐western China. Understanding its historical invasion pattern and its potential for further spread is needed to plan the management of the species. We reconstructed the historical process of its invasion and analysed its ecological preferences in the invaded region. After a lag phase of 20 years (1940–60), A. adenophora spread rapidly throughout the south and middle subtropical zones in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, China, with an average expansion rate of 20 km per year. It spread relatively slowly in north subtropical areas, with an average expansion rate of 6.8 km per year. It has not established in warm temperate areas within the invaded regions. Although range expansion in Yunnan stopped after 1990, the expansion of its range into neighbouring provinces indicates that A. adenophora has not reached the full potential of its distribution and its range is still rapidly expanding within China. We applied ecological niche modelling (GARP — Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction) to predict potential invasion areas in mainland China on the basis of occurrence points within colonized areas where A. adenophora has reached equilibrium. The predictions, confirmed by the range of values of four key environmental parameters, generally match the parameters of the geography and ecology in the invaded region. Southern and south‐central China have climatic conditions suggestive of a high potential for invasion by A. adenophora. Climatic conditions in northern and western China appear unsuitable for A. adenophora. Urgent measures should be taken to prevent this species from further spreading into the vast areas of potential habitat in southern and south‐central China.     

A model for range expansion of an introduced species: the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal

Abstract. The common waxbill Estrilda astrild was first introduced to Portugal from Africa in 1964, and has spread across much of the country and into Spain. We modelled the expansion of the common waxbill on a 20 × 20 km UTM grid in 4‐year periods from 1964 to 1999. The time variation of the square root of the occupied area shows that this expansion process is stabilizing in Portugal, and reasons for this are discussed. Several methods used to model biological expansions are not appropriate for the present case, because little quantitative data are available on the species ecology and because this expansion has been spatially heterogeneous. Instead, colonization on a grid was modelled as a function of several biophysical and spatio‐temporal variables through the fitting of a multivariate autologistic equation. This approach allows examination of the underlying factors affecting the colonization process. In the case of the common waxbill it was associated positively with its occurrence in adjacent cells, and affected negatively by altitude and higher levels of solar radiation.     

Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species

The relative roles of environment and history in controlling large‐scale species distributions are important not only theoretically, but also for forecasting range responses to climatic change. Here, we use atlas data to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe. Quantifying range filling (R/P) as realized/potential range size ratios using bioclimatic envelope modelling we find mean R/P = 38.3% (±30.3% SD). Many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges, providing support for interpreting the many low R/Ps as primarily reflecting dispersal limitation. R/P increases strongly with latitudinal range centroid and secondarily with hardiness and decreases weakly with longitudinal range centroid. Hence, European tree species ranges appear strongly controlled by geographical dispersal constraints on post‐glacial expansion as well as climate. Consequently, we expect European tree species to show only limited tracking of near‐future climate changes.     

Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响

生态位模型在入侵生物学和保护生物学中具有广泛的应用, 其中Maxent模型最为流行, 被越来越多地应用在预测物种的现实分布和潜在分布的研究中。在Maxent模型中, 多数研究者采用默认参数来构建模型, 这些默认参数源自早期对266个物种的测试, 以预测物种的现实分布为目的。近期研究发现, Maxent模型采用复杂机械学习算法, 对采样偏差敏感, 易产生过度拟合, 模型转移能力仅在低阈值情况下较好。基于默认参数的Maxent模型不仅预测结果不可靠, 而且有时很难解释。在本研究中, 作者以入侵害虫茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)为例, 采用经典模型构建方案(即构建本土模型然后将其转移至入侵地来评估), 利用ENMeval数据包来调整本土Maxent模型调控倍频和特征组合参数, 分析各种参数条件下模型的复杂度, 然后选取最低复杂度的模型参数(即为最优模型), 综合比较默认参数和调整参数后Maxent模型的响应曲线和预测结果, 探讨Maxent模型复杂度对预测结果的影响及Maxent模型构建时所需注意事项, 以期对物种潜在分布进行合理的预测, 促进Maxent模型在我国的合理运用和发展。作者认为, 环境变量的选择至关重要, 需要综合分析其对所模拟物种分布的限制作用和环境变量之间的空间相关性。构建Maxent模型前需对物种分布采样偏差及模型的构建区域进行合理地判断, 模型构建时需要比较不同参数下模型的预测结果和响应曲线, 选取复杂度较低的模型参数来最终建模。在茶翅蝽的分析中, Maxent模型的默认参数和最优模型参数不同, 与Maxent模型默认参数相比, 采用调整参数后所构建的模型预测效果较好, 响应曲线较为平滑, 模型转移能力较高, 能够较为合理反映物种对环境因子的响应和准确地模拟该物种的潜在分布。     

外来入侵物种的风险评估定量模型及应用

预防生物入侵的一个重要手段是对外来物种进行风险评估,应用模型则是定量评估的必备方法。本文简述了常用的适生性风险评估模型,概述了诸如遗传算法、模糊包络模型、自组织特征映射网络等较新的理论方法,它们使用环境变量和物种实际分布数据,利用不同的机理模型预测物种潜在分布区。本文还综述了适用于研究物种扩散性的模型,积分差分方程模型可以模拟物种扩散行为,元胞自动机模型可以揭示种间竞争关系,景观中性模型大多用于种群动态等生态过程的研究。     

近20年外来生物入侵危害与风险评估文献计量分析

外来生物入侵导致全球生物多样性下降,极大地威胁着生态系统健康,已造成很大的生态损失与经济损失。近年来,随着生物入侵的加剧,全球对生物入侵的研究力度不断加大。外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估可以为人们提供对入侵可能性和入侵方式更直接的信息,从而为管理者制定管理策略提供依据。基于最近20年间(1995—2014年)科学文献数据库Web of Science的科学引文索引数据库扩展版(SCI-E)中数据,对外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估方面的研究进行了文献计量分析,旨在了解当前国际研究现状,以便推动中国的生物入侵相关研究。为了全面掌握全球外来生物入侵生态危害与风险评估方面的研究,采用Bibexcel与TDA文献计量工具,对Web of Science数据库中相关文献进行了分析,去重后共获取5492篇文献。结果表明:近20年(1995—2014年)入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估方面的研究刊文量呈现前缓后剧增的趋势,2008—2014年进入了快速发展阶段,文献数量急剧增加,2014年达到最高(511篇);美国发文量远超其它国家,占据主导地位,中国刊文量排名第5。美国、澳大利亚、法国、英国、德国的研究论文影响力较大。刊文量最多的研究机构为美国农业部(USDA),中国科学院发文量排名第10位。研究学科主要为昆虫学、农艺学、植物科学、生态学,研究热点集中在生物防治、风险评估、粮食作物和经济作物的病虫害防治、杂草防控,以及生物入侵与气候变化的关系等方面。有关外来入侵生物的生态危害与风险评估的研究多集中于北美、澳大利亚和欧洲,未来要加强亚洲地区,特别是中国外来生物入侵风险评估的研究;要加强气候变化对外来生物物种特性的影响研究,更多关注入侵生物的生态控制与生态恢复方面的研究,以便更好地为今后长期有效地防控入侵生物提供理论与技术指导。     

Understanding niche shifts: using current and historical data to model the invasive redlegged earth mite,Halotydeus destructor

Aim Niche conservatism is key to understanding species responses to environmental stress such as climate change or arriving in new geographical space such as biological invasion. Halotydeus destructor is an important agricultural pest in Australia and has been the focus of extensive surveys that suggest this species has undergone a niche shift to expand its invasive range inland to hotter and drier environments. We employ modern correlative modelling methods to examine niche conservatism in H. destructor and highlight ecological differences between historical and current distributions. Location Australia and South Africa. Methods We compile comprehensive distribution data sets for H. destructor, representing the native range in South Africa, its invasive range in Australia in the 1960s (40 yr post‐introduction) and its current range in Australia. Using MAXENT, we build correlative models and reciprocally project them between South Africa and Australia and investigate range expansion with models constructed for historical and current data sets. We use several recently developed model exploration tools to examine the climate similarity between native and invasive ranges and subsequently examine climatic variables that limit distributions. Results The invasive niche of H. destructor in Australia transgresses the native niche in South Africa, and the species has expanded in Australia beyond what is predicted from the native distribution. Our models support the notion that H. destructor has undergone a more recent range shift into hotter and drier inland areas of Australia since establishing a stable distribution in the 1960s. Main conclusions Our use of historical and current data highlights that invasion is an ongoing dynamic process and demonstrates that once a species has reached an established range, it may still expand at a later stage. We also show that model exploration tools help understand factors influencing the range of invasive species. The models generate hypotheses about adaptive shifts in H. destructor.     

Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas)

Aim The highly adaptable estuarine crab (Carcinus maenas) has successfully invaded five temperate geographic regions outside of its native Europe. Here, we determine which environmental factors predict the current distribution of C. maenas and what the potential geographic range of this species might be. We also investigated whether the invasion potential of C. maenas differs with respect to the origin of a native subpopulation. Location Models were developed using global observation records of C. maenas. Methods Boosted regression trees were used to model observations from the (1) native, (2) invasive, (3) southern European, (4) northern European and (5) the combined native and invasive geographic ranges of C. maenas. Results Most established invasions were predicted mainly based on temperature. Interestingly, the environment encountered by established invasions failed to predict the majority of northern European populations; suggesting that invasion potential may differ between distinct native populations. Supporting this suggestion, a model of northern European populations, distinguished from southern European populations based on genetic structure, only predicted established invasions south of Nova Scotia. By contrast, a model of southern European populations predicted most established invasions. Main conclusions These results suggest that invasion potential depends on the European origin of an invasive population and that most invasions have arisen from southern Europe. Finally, a model based on combined native and invasive ranges of C. maenas identified potential geographic range extension along many currently invaded coastlines and the potential invasion of countries like Chile, China, Russia, Namibia and New Zealand.     

A rapid survey of the invasive plant species in western Angola

Angola is one of the most neglected African countries in terms of botanical research, in respect of both native and naturalized species. We conducted a rapid assessment of invasive plant species in western Angola during August 2014. In thirteen primary vegetation types, we recorded populations of 44 naturalized plant species, nineteen of which are conclusively invasive (spreading far from introduction sites). Dense invasive populations of Chromolaena odorata, Inga vera and Opuntia stricta pose the greatest environmental and economic threats. Some species with known taxonomic and/or biogeographic uncertainties (e.g. Chromolaena odorata and Ageratina adenophora) or which lacked key characteristics for identification such as flowers during our survey (e.g. Eucalyptus spp.) were subjected to DNA barcoding for comparisons with available genetic data from other studies. This approach allowed us to confirm the identity of taxonomically challenging taxa such as Inga vera, Opuntia stricta and Prosopis chilensis, to conclusively differentiate Chromolaena odorata from Ageratina adenophora, and identify the subspecific identity of Acacia saligna. Canonical correspondence analysis was used to assess the presence and abundance of invasive plant species with respect to the major abiotic factors and vegetation types. Three fairly distinct groups of species emerge from this analysis: (i) species of dry lowland habitats (Calotropis gigantea, Leucaena leucocephala and Opuntia stricta); (ii) species of relatively wet habitats at mid elevations (Ageratum conyzoides, Bidens pilosa, Cardiospermum grandiflorum, Chromolaena odorata, Solanum mauritianum and Tithonia diversifolia); and (iii) upland species (Ageratina adenophora, Galinsoga parviflora and Tagetes minuta). Several invasive species that are widespread in other tropical and subtropical African countries are currently either missing (e.g. many Australian Acacia species, Azolla filiculoides, Broussonetia papyrifera, Clidemia hirta, Parthenium hysterophorus, Rubus rosaefolius, Salvinia molesta), have only very localized populations in Angola (e.g. Lantana camara, Prosopis chilensis) or exist only as planted individuals (e.g. Acacia mearnsii and A. saligna subsp. saligna).     

Population expansion of the invasive Pomacentridae Chromis limbata (Valenciennes, 1833) in southern Brazilian coast: long-term monitoring,fundamental niche availability and new records

Human-mediated species invasions are recognized as a leading cause of global biotic homogenization and extinction. Studies on colonization events since early stages, establishment of new populations and range extension are scarce because of their rarity, difficult detection and monitoring. Chromis limbata is a reef-associated and non-migratory marine fish from the family Pomacentridae found in depths ranging between 3 and 45 m. The original distribution of the species encompassed exclusively the eastern Atlantic, including the Azores, Madeira and the Canary Islands. It is also commonly reported from West Africa between Senegal and Pointe Noire, Congo. In 2008, vagrant individuals of C. limbata were recorded off the east coast of Santa Catarina Island, South Brazil (27° 41′ 44″ S, 48° 27′ 53″ W). This study evaluated the increasing densities of C. limbata populations in Santa Catarina State shoreline. Two recent expansions, northwards to São Paulo State and southwards to Rio Grande do Sul State, are discussed, and a niche model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was performed to evaluate suitable C. limbata habitats. Brazilian populations are established and significantly increasing in most sites where the species has been detected. The distributional boundaries predicted by the model are clearly wider than their known range of occurrence, evidencing environmental suitability in both hemispheres from areas where the species still does not occur. Ecological processes such as competition, predation and specially habitat selectivity may regulate their populations and overall distribution range. A long-term monitoring programme and population genetics studies are necessary for a better understanding of this invasion and its consequences to natural communities.     

提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种 的潜在分布

生态位模型利用物种分布点所关联的环境变量去推算物种的生态需求, 模拟物种的分布。在模拟入侵物种分布时, 经典生态位模型包括模型构建于物种本土分布地, 然后将其转移并投射至另一地理区域, 来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布。然而在模型运用时, 出现了模型的转移能力较低、模拟的结果与物种的实际分布不相符的情况, 由此得出了生态位漂移等不恰当的结论。提高生态位模型的转移能力, 可以准确地模拟入侵物种的潜在分布, 为入侵种的风险评估提供参考。作者以入侵种茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)和互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)为例, 从模型的构建材料(即物种分布点和环境变量)入手, 全面阐述提高模型转移能力的策略。在构建模型之前, 需要充分了解入侵物种的生物学特性、种群平衡状态、本土地理分布范围及物种的生物历史地理等方面的知识。在模型构建环节上, 物种分布点不仅要充分覆盖物种的地理分布和生态空间的范围, 同时要降低物种采样点偏差; 环境变量的选择要充分考虑其对物种分布的限制作用、各环境变量之间的空间相关性, 以及不同地理种群间生态空间是否一致, 同时要降低环境变量的空间维度; 模型构建区域要真实地反映物种的地理分布范围, 并考虑种群的平衡状态。作者认为, 在生态位保守的前提下, 如果模型是构建在一个合理方案的基础上, 生态位模型的转移能力是可以保证的, 在以模型转移能力较低的现象来阐述生态位分化时需要引起注意。     

Global patterns in the shape of species geographical ranges reveal range determinants

Aim Do species range shapes follow general patterns? If so, what mechanisms underlie those patterns? We show for 11,582 species from a variety of taxa across the world that most species have similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. We then seek to disentangle the roles of climate, extrinsic dispersal limitation (e.g. barriers) and intrinsic dispersal limitation (reflecting a species’ ability to disperse) as constraints of species range shape. We also assess the relationship between range size and shape. Location Global. Methods Range shape patterns were measured as the slope of the regression of latitudinal species ranges against longitudinal ranges for each taxon and continent, and as the coefficient of determination measuring the degree of scattering of species ranges from the 1:1 line (i.e. latitudinal range = longitudinal range). Two major competing hypotheses explaining species distributions (i.e. dispersal or climatic determinism) were explored. To this end, we compared the observed slopes and coefficients of determination with those predicted by a climatic null model that estimates the potential range shapes in the absence of dispersal limitation. The predictions compared were that species distribution shapes are determined purely by (1) intrinsic dispersal limitation, (2) extrinsic dispersal limitations such as topographic barriers, and (3) climate. Results  Using this methodology, we show for a wide variety of taxa across the globe that species generally have very similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. However, neither neutral models assuming random but spatially constrained dispersal, nor models assuming climatic control of species distributions describe range shapes adequately. The empirical relationship between the latitudinal and longitudinal ranges of species falls between the predictions of these competing models. Main conclusions We propose that this pattern arises from the combined effect of macroclimate and intrinsic dispersal limitation, the latter being the major determinant among restricted‐range species. Hence, accurately projecting the impact of climate change onto species ranges will require a solid understanding of how climate and dispersal jointly control species ranges.     

Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances

Although abiotic factors, together with dispersal and biotic interactions, are often suggested to explain the distribution of species and their abundances, species distribution models usually focus on abiotic factors only. We propose an integrative framework linking ecological theory, empirical data and statistical models to understand the distribution of species and their abundances together with the underlying community assembly dynamics. We illustrate our approach with 21 plant species in the French Alps. We show that a spatially nested modelling framework significantly improves the model's performance and that the spatial variations of species presence-absence and abundances are predominantly explained by different factors. We also show that incorporating abiotic, dispersal and biotic factors into the same model bring new insights to our understanding of community assembly. This approach, at the crossroads between community ecology and biogeography, is a promising avenue for a better understanding of species co-existence and biodiversity distribution.     

A trait-based approach across the native and invaded range to understand plant invasiveness and community impact

Alien plant species invasiveness and impact on diversity (i.e. species richness and composition) can be driven by the altered competitive interactions experienced by the invader in its invaded range compared to its native range. Trait-based competition effects on invasiveness can be mediated through size-asymmetric competition, i.e. a trait suit of the invader that drives competitive dominance, and through ‘niche differences', i.e. trait differentiation and thus minimized competition between invader and the invaded community. In terms of invasion impact, size-asymmetric competition is expected to result in competitive exclusion of co-occurring subordinate species, whereas ‘niche differences' might result in competitive exclusion of the most functionally similar co-occurring species. Although observational work does not allow the full disentanglement of both trait-based effects, it does allow to verify the occurrence of expected theoretical trait patters. In this study, we explored the trait-based competition effects on invasiveness and diversity impact for Rosa rugosa in both its invaded range in Belgium and its native range in Japan, based on seven functional traits across 100 vegetation plots. Following the predictions for enhanced invasiveness, we found much lower functional overlap between R. rugosa and the co-occurring species in the invaded range compared to the native range. This likely also explains the absence of diversity impact in its native range. Despite the absence of changes in species richness in the invaded range, the invader did strongly impact species composition of invaded communities. This impact occurred through strong shade tolerance responses, suggesting size-asymmetric competition effects and cover loss of co-occurring dominant species, next to exclusion of co-occurring species most functionally similar to the invader; suggesting niche difference effects. In conclusion, this case-study illustrates how exploring functional trait patterns across a species native and invaded range can help in understanding how trait-based competition processes can affect invasiveness and community impact.