Broad‐scale geographic patterns in body size and hind wing development of western Palaearctic carabid beetles(Coleoptera: Carabidae)

Research into large‐scale ecological rules has a long tradition but has received increasing attention over the last two decades. Whereas environmental, especially climatic, influences on the geographic distribution of species traits such as body size are well understood in mammals and birds, our knowledge of the determinants and mechanisms which shape spatial patterns in invertebrate traits is still limited. This study analyzes macroecological patterns in two traits of the highly diverse invertebrate taxon of carabid beetles: body size and hind wing development, the latter being directly linked to species’ dispersal abilities. We tested for potential impacts of environmental variables (spatial, areal, topographic and climate‐related) representing both contemporary conditions and historical processes on large‐scale patterns in the two traits. Regression models revealed hump‐shaped relationships with latitude for both traits in the categories 1) all species, 2) widespread and 3) endemic (restricted‐range) species: body size and the proportion of flightless species increased from northern towards southern Europe and then decreased towards North Africa. The shared and independent influence of environmental factors was analyzed by variation partitioning. While contemporary environmental productivity and stability (represented by measures of ambient energy and water energy balance) had strong positive relationships with carabid body size, patterns in hind wing development were most notably influenced by topography (elevation range). Regions with high elevation range and low historical climate variability (since the last ice age), which likely offer long‐term stable habitats (i.e. glacial refugia), coincide with regions with high proportions of flightless species. Thus geographic patterns in carabid traits tend to be formed not only by recent climate but also by dispersal and historical climate and processes (i.e. glaciations and postglacial colonization).     

Belowground carabid beetle diversity in the western Palaearctic - effects of history and climate on range-restricted taxa (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

Broad-scale patterns of subterranean diversity are a fascinating but neglected part of biodiversity research. Carabid beetles adapted to belowground habitats form a particularly species-rich part of the subterranean fauna. We studied large-scale diversity patterns of these belowground carabids across the western Palaearctic and evaluated potential impacts of historical and contemporary environmental conditions on the distribution of these taxa, using available species richness and environmental data at country level. Regression modelling and variation partitioning showed a strong relationship between species richness and range in elevation. Potential effects of climatic variables, mainly those related to ambient energy input, were much weaker. We discuss the implications of this combination of effects, which suggests, concordant with the absence of subterranean carabids in northern and highest richness in southern Europe, a strong prevailing influence of historical processes on current richness distributions of these taxa. Previous studies did not provide clear indications for such an influence. In contrast to more mobile and widespread carabid beetles, dispersal limitation due to high adaptation of belowground carabids to subterranean habitats has probably hindered their re-colonization of former permafrost and glaciated regions. Hotspots of highest belowground diversity are located in regions with an assumed long-term stability of environmental conditions, correlating with patterns of other dispersal-limited taxa such as many endemic plants. Our study provides important new information in the discussion of potential determinants of the distinct geographic patterns of belowground diversity. Moreover, it contributes to a better understanding of range size related differences previously found in the distribution of diversity and environmental dependencies of widespread and range-restricted species within the highly diverse carabid beetles.     

The relative roles of environment and history as controls of tree species composition and richness in Europe

Aim This study investigates the determinants of European‐scale patterns in tree species composition and richness, addressing the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of environment and history? History refers to lasting effects of past large‐scale events and time‐dependent cumulative effects of ongoing processes, notably dispersal limited range dynamics. (2) Among the environmental determinants, what is the relative importance of climate, soils, and forest cover? (3) Do the answers to questions 1 and 2 differ between conifers and Fagales, the two major monophyletic groups of European trees? Location The study area comprises most of Europe (34° N–72° N and 11° W–32° E). Methods Atlas data on native distributions of 54 large tree species at 50 × 50 km resolution were linked with climatic, edaphic, and forest cover maps in a geographical information system. Unconstrained (principal components analysis using Hellinger distance transformation and detrended correspondence analysis) and constrained ordinations (redundancy analysis using Hellinger distance transformation and canonical correspondence analysis) and multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the determinants of species composition and species richness, respectively. History is expected to leave its mark as broad spatial patterns and was represented by the nine spatial terms of a cubic trend surface polynomial. Results The main floristic pattern identified by all ordinations was a latitude‐temperature gradient, while the lower axes corresponded mostly to spatial variables. Partitioning the floristic variation using constrained ordinations showed the mixed spatial‐environmental and pure spatial fractions to be much greater than the pure environmental fraction. Biplots, forward variable selection, and partial analyses all suggested climatic variables as more important floristic determinants than forest cover or soil variables. Tree species richness peaked in the mountainous regions of East‐Central and Southern Europe, except the Far West. Variation partitioning of species richness found the mixed spatial‐environmental and pure spatial fractions to be much greater than the pure environmental fraction for all species combined and Fagales, but not for conifers. The scaled regression coefficients indicated climate as a stronger determinant of richness than soils or forest cover. While the dominant patterns were similar for conifers and Fagales, conifers exhibited less predictable patterns overall, a smaller pure spatial variation fraction relative to pure environmental fraction, and a greater relative importance of climate; all differences being more pronounced for species richness than for species composition. Main conclusions The analyses suggest that history is at least as important as current environment in controlling species composition and richness of European trees, with the exception of conifer species richness. Strong support for interpreting the spatial patterns as outcomes of historical processes, notably dispersal limitation, came from the observation that many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges. Furthermore, it was confirmed that climate predominates among environmental determinants of distribution and diversity patterns at large spatial scales. Finally, the particular patterns exhibited by conifers probably reflect greater environmental specialization and greater human impact. These findings warn against expecting the European tree flora to be able track fast future climate changes on its own.     

Climate and soil texture influence patterns of forb species richness and composition in big sagebrush plant communities across their spatial extent in the western U.S.

Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities are widespread in western North America and, similar to all shrub steppe ecosystems worldwide, are composed of a shrub overstory layer and a forb and graminoid understory layer. Forbs account for the majority of plant species diversity in big sagebrush plant communities and are important for ecosystem function. Few studies have explored geographic patterns of forb species richness and composition and their relationships with environmental variables in these communities. Our objectives were to examine the fine and broad-scale spatial patterns in forb species richness and composition and the influence of environmental variables. We sampled forb species richness and composition along transects at 15 field sites in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming, built species-area relationships to quantify differences in forb species richness at sites, and used Principal Components Analysis, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and redundancy analysis to identify relationships among environmental variables and forb species richness and composition. We found that species richness was most strongly correlated with soil texture, while species composition was most related to climate. The combination of climate and soil texture influences water availability, which our results indicate has important consequences for forb species richness and composition, and suggests that climate change-induced modification of soil water availability may have important implications for plant species diversity in the future.     

Hierarchical Dynamics of Ecological Communities: Do Scales of Space and Time Match?

Theory posits that community dynamics organize at distinct hierarchical scales of space and time, and that the spatial and temporal patterns at each scale are commensurate. Here we use time series modeling to investigate fluctuation frequencies of species groups within invertebrate metacommunities in 26 boreal lakes over a 20-year period, and variance partitioning analysis to study whether species groups with different fluctuation patterns show spatial signals that are commensurate with the scale-specific fluctuation patterns identified. We identified two groups of invertebrates representing hierarchically organized temporal dynamics: one species group showed temporal variability at decadal scales (slow patterns of change), whilst another group showed fluctuations at 3 to 5-year intervals (faster change). This pattern was consistently found across all lakes studied. A spatial signal was evident in the slow but not faster-changing species groups. As expected, the spatial signal for the slow-changing group coincided with broad-scale spatial patterns that could be explained with historical biogeography (ecoregion delineation, and dispersal limitation assessed through a dispersal trait analysis). In addition to spatial factors, the slow-changing groups correlated with environmental variables, supporting the conjecture that boreal lakes are undergoing environmental change. Taken together our results suggest that regionally distinct sets of taxa, separated by biogeographical boundaries, responded similarly to broad-scale environmental change. Not only does our approach allow testing theory about hierarchically structured space-time patterns; more generally, it allows assessing the relative role of the ability of communities to track environmental change and dispersal constraints limiting community structure and biodiversity at macroecological scales.     

Environmental and topographic drivers of amphibian phylogenetic diversity and endemism in the Iberian Peninsula

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns and allowing their persistence is of utmost importance. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain spatial diversity patterns, including water-energy availability, habitat heterogeneity, and historical climatic refugia. The main goal of this study is to identify if general spatial drivers of species diversity patterns of phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) at the global scale are also predictive of PD and PE at regional scales, using Iberian amphibians as a case study. Our main hypothesis assumes that topography along with contemporary and historical climate are drivers of phylogenetic diversity and endemism, but that the strength of these predictors may be weaker at the regional scale than it tends to be at the global scale. We mapped spatial patterns of Iberian amphibians' phylogenetic diversity and endemism, using previously published phylogenetic and distribution data. Furthermore, we compiled spatial data on topographic and climatic variables related to the water-energy availability, topography, and historical climatic instability hypotheses. To test our hypotheses, we used Spatial Autoregressive Models and selected the best model to explain diversity patterns based on Akaike Information Criterion. Our results show that, out of the variables tested in our study, water-energy availability and historical climate instability are the most important drivers of amphibian diversity in Iberia. However, as predicted, the strength of these predictors in our case study is weaker than it tends to be at global scales. Thus, additional drivers should also be investigated and we suggest caution when interpreting these predictors as surrogates for different components of diversity.     

Relative importance of water, energy, and heterogeneity in determining regional pteridophyte and seed plant richness in China

Environmental variables, such as ambient energy, water availability, and environmental heterogeneity have been frequently proposed to account for species diversity gradients. How taxon-specific functional traits define large-scale richness gradients is a fundamental issue in understanding spatial patterns of species diversity, but has not been well documented. Using a large dataset on the regional flora from China, we examine the contrast spatial patterns and environmental determinants between pteridophytes and seed plants which differ in dispersal capacity and environmental requirements. Pteridophyte richness shows more pronounced spatial variation and stronger environmental associations than seed plant richness. Water availability generally accounts for more spatial variance in species richness of pteridophytes and seed plants than energy and heterogeneity do, especially for pteridophytes which have high dependence on moist and shady environments. Thus, pteridophyte richness is disproportionally affected by water-related variables; this in turn results in a higher proportion of pteridophytes in regional vascular plant floras (pteridophyte proportion) in wet regions. Most of the variance in seed plant richness, pteridophyte richness, and pteridophyte proportion explained by energy is included in variation that water and heterogeneity account for, indicating the redundancy of energy in the study extent. However, heterogeneity is more important for determining seed plant distributions. Pteridophyte and seed plant richness is strongly correlated, even after the environmental effects have been removed, implying functional linkages between them. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating biological traits of different taxonomic groups into the studies of macroecology and global change biology.     

Habitat structure and neighbor linear features influence more carabid functional diversity in olive groves than the farming system

The effects of land-use management and environmental features at different scales on carabid beetle diversity and trait structure were assessed across olive groves in northeastern Portugal. We selected organic and integrated olive groves that were distinct in terms of specific management practices, local linear features and landscape configurations. Besides the management intensification levels, differences in carabid diversity and community traits were mainly due to local habitat and ecological linear structures at a finer spatial scale. Carabid community traits related to disturbance, namely traits of body size and species dispersal ability, responded to land-use intensity and particular olive grove features were influencing diversity patterns. Within the olive grove patches, larger and brachypterous species were associated to plots with more dense vegetation cover while macropterous and small-sized species were more associated to open areas. Also, larger carabid species benefitted from higher patch size heterogeneity within the landscape mosaics. Our findings indicate that the effects of farming system is contingent on the specific management practices, local and linear features present in agroecosystems such as olive groves. Particularly, the influence of local features on carabid diversity patterns and community traits linked to dispersal and movement may be crucial in maintaining pest control at a landscape scale.     

Quaternary and pre‐Quaternary historical legacies in the global distribution of a major tropical plant lineage

Aim The relative importance of current climate and past historical legacies is hotly debated. Here, we assess their role in determining the global distribution and diversity patterns of palms (Arecaceae), a widespread, species‐rich group of keystone ecological importance in tropical ecosystems. Location Global. Methods We assembled country‐level species lists world‐wide and compiled associated data on potential contemporary environmental drivers (current climate, habitat heterogeneity, area, and insularity), Quaternary glacial–interglacial climate change and major biogeographic regions to evaluate to what extent the global distribution and species richness patterns in palms reflect Quaternary climatic oscillations or regional effects reflecting pre‐Quaternary legacies. We also assessed for the first time if historical legacies differ between continents and islands, providing novel insights into determinants of insular species richness. Results Palm species richness was significantly affected by Quaternary climate changes and further differed between biogeographic regions even when both current environmental conditions and Quaternary climate changes were accounted for. In contrast, global limits to the distribution of the palm family were best explained by current temperature while biogeographic regional differences were unimportant and Quaternary climate change caused only a small constraint. Historical legacies were weak on islands, with only a small regional effect and no effect of Quaternary climate changes. Main conclusions Strong historical legacies supplement current environment as determinants of palm species richness. These primarily comprise pre‐Quaternary historical effects, reflected in low African species richness (possibly linked to pre‐Quaternary extinctions) and outstandingly high Neotropical and Indomalayan palm species richness (possibly linked to these regions' long‐term climatic suitability for palms). In contrast to species richness, the global distribution of the family range is largely in equilibrium with current climate. The small historical effects on islands are consistent with climatic buffering from their oceanic environment.     

Spatial nonstationarity and scale-dependency in the relationship between species richness and environmental determinants for the sub-Saharan endemic avifauna

Aim This article aims to test for and explore spatial nonstationarity in the relationship between avian species richness and a set of explanatory variables to further the understanding of species diversity variation. Location Sub‐Saharan Africa. Methods Geographically weighted regression was used to study the relationship between species richness of the endemic avifauna of sub‐Saharan Africa and a set of perceived environmental determinants, comprising the variables of temperature, precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index. Results The relationships between species richness and the explanatory variables were found to be significantly spatially variable and scale‐dependent. At local scales > 90% of the variation was explained, but this declined at coarser scales, with the greatest sensitivity to scale variation evident for narrow ranging species. The complex spatial pattern in regression model parameter estimates also gave rise to a spatial variation in scale effects. Main conclusions Relationships between environmental variables are generally assumed to be spatially stationary and conventional, global, regression techniques are therefore used in their modelling. This assumption was not satisfied in this study, with the relationships varying significantly in space. In such circumstances the average impression provided by a global model may not accurately represent conditions locally. Spatial nonstationarity in the relationship has important implications, especially for studies of species diversity patterns and their scaling.     

Fine‐scale patterns of species and phylogenetic turnover in a global biodiversity hotspot: Implications for climate change vulnerability

Question: What is the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors for species compositional and phylogenetic turnover? Location: High‐rainfall zone of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods: Correlates of species compositional turnover were assessed using quadrat‐based floristic data, and establishing relationships with environmental and spatial factors using canonical correspondence analyses and Mantel tests. Between‐quadrat phylogenetic distance measures were computed and examined for correlations with environmental and spatial attributes. Processes structuring pa2t2terns of beta diversity were also evaluated within four broad floristic assemblages defined a priori. Results: Floristic diversity was strongly related to environmental attributes. A low significance of spatial variables on assemblage patterns suggested no evident effect of dispersal limitations. Species compositional turnover was especially high within the swamp and outcrop assemblage. Phylogenetic turnover was closely coupled to species compositional turnover, implying the occurrence of many locally endemic and phylogenetically relict taxa. Beta diversity patterns within assemblages were also significantly correlated with the local environment, and relevant correlates differed between floristic assemblage types. Conclusion: Phylogenetic diversity in the SWAFR high‐rainfall zone is clustered within edaphic microhabitats in a generally subdued landscape. A clustered rather than dispersed distribution of phylogenetic diversity increases the probability of significant plant diversity loss during periods of climate change. Climate change susceptibility of the region's flora is accordingly estimated to be high. We highlight the conservation significance of swamp and outcrops that are characterized by distinct hydrological properties and may provide refugial habitat for plant diversity during periods of moderate climate change.     

DECOUPLING OF SHORT‐ AND LONG‐DISTANCE DISPERSAL PATHWAYS IN THE ENDEMIC NEW ZEALAND SEAWEED CARPOPHYLLUM MASCHALOCARPUM (PHAEOPHYCEAE,FUCALES)1

The processes that produce and maintain genetic structure in organisms operate at different timescales and on different life‐history stages. In marine macroalgae, gene flow occurs through gamete/zygote dispersal and rafting by adult thalli. Population genetic patterns arise from this contemporary gene flow interacting with historical processes. We analyzed spatial patterns of mitochondrial DNA variation to investigate contemporary and historical dispersal patterns in the New Zealand endemic fucalean brown alga Carpophyllum maschalocarpum (Turner) Grev. Populations bounded by habitat discontinuities were often strongly differentiated from adjoining populations over scales of tens of kilometers and intrapopulation diversity was generally low, except for one region of northeast New Zealand (the Bay of Plenty). There was evidence of strong connectivity between the northern and eastern regions of New Zealand’s North Island and between the North and South Islands of New Zealand and the Chatham Islands (separated by 650 km of open ocean). Moderate haplotypic diversity was found in Chatham Islands populations, while other southern populations showed low diversity consistent with Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat and subsequent recolonization. We suggest that ocean current patterns and prevailing westerly winds facilitate long‐distance dispersal by floating adult thalli, decoupling genetic differentiation of Chatham Island populations from dispersal potential at the gamete/zygote stage. This study highlights the importance of encompassing the entire range of a species when inferring dispersal patterns from genetic differentiation, as realized dispersal distances can be contingent on local or regional oceanographic and historical processes.     

Contrasting metacommunity structure and beta diversity in an aquatic‐floodplain system

Habitat connectivity and dispersal interact to structure metacommunities, but few studies have examined these patterns jointly for organisms across the aquatic–terrestrial ecotone. We assessed metacommunity structure and beta diversity patterns of instream benthic invertebrates, riparian carabid beetles (Order: Coleoptera; Family: Carabidae) and riparian spiders (Order: Araneae) at fifteen sites in a river‐floodplain system. Sampling took place over a three‐year period (2010–2012) in the Rhine‐Main‐Observatory LTER site on the Kinzig River, central Germany. This allowed disentangling the combined influence, and temporal variability, of habitat connectivity (i.e. between aquatic and terrestrial) and dispersal ability (i.e. between spiders and beetles, and aerial and aquatic dispersing invertebrates) on the dominant paradigms structuring these metacommunities. We found mostly consistent differences in the manner that metacommunities were structured between groups, with lower levels of variability explained for beetles compared to the other groups. Beetles were consistently structured more by turnover than nestedness components, with greater beta diversity than expected by chance and a minor spatial compared to environmental signal emerging with variance partitioning. Conversely, spiders and benthic invertebrates had lower beta diversity and greater nestedness than null expectation, and a clearer spatial signal controlling metacommunity structure. Our results suggest varying levels of mass effects and species sorting shape river‐floodplain metacommunities, depending on habitat connectivity and dispersal ability. That is, greater connectivity and lower fragmentation along the river compared to the terrestrial zone promoted mass effects, and differences in overall dispersal ability and mode (i.e. active and passive) for instream and riparian communities shifted paradigms between mass effects and species sorting.     

Patterns of plant species endemism in Ecuador

Distribution patterns of plant species endemic to Ecuador and adjacent parts of southern Colombia and northern Peru are analysed on the basis of information in the Flora of Ecuador. A total of 827 restricted-range species were found, many of which are known from extremely small areas, often only one or a few localities. A total of 27% of the species treated in the Flora of Ecuador are endemic to that country. The overall proportion of endemic and restricted-range species is greater in the Andes than in the lowland areas on either side of these mountains; particularly the southern Andes appears to be very rich in endemic species. Spatial analysis of distribution data results in the recognition of 15 floristic elements and 18 geographical endemism regions in Ecuador, the characteristics of which are discussed. Comparison with distribution patterns of restricted-range bird species show a general correspondence, with the main difference that birds tend to be more widely distributed than plants along the Andes. Comparison of the results with the location of national parks and other protected areas shows that the endemic floras in the northern and eastern parts of the country are much better protected than those of the southern and western parts.     

Determinants of Delphacidae richness and endemism in China

1. Identifying the macro-scale patterns and the underlying mechanisms of species richness are key aspects of biodiversity-related research. In China, previous studies on the mechanisms underlying insect richness have primarily focused on the current ecological conditions. Therefore, the impact of historical climate change on these mechanisms is less well understood. 2. Here, we use members of the Delphacidae family to evaluate the relative impact of the current environmental conditions and that of the Last Glacial Maximum on total species richness and endemism. Total species richness and endemic species richness were summed in 1° × 1° grid cells that the insects occupied. Generalised linear models, simultaneous autoregressive models, and random forest models were used to assess the effects of different environmental factors on total species richness and endemism. 3. The two patterns of species richness are jointly regulated by the current environment and the Last Glacial Maximum, but their key determinants differ. Winter coldness and the temperature annual range strongly affected the total species richness, but temperature variation during the Last Glacial Maximum also played an important role in the development of species richness. The distribution of endemic species was most strongly affected by the Last Glacial Maximum temperature change. 4. The studies confirm that historical climate change contributes to patterns of insect species richness, particularly patterns of endemism. Considering that China was mildly affected by the last glacial period, we propose that the incorporation of historical climate data into such studies will provide a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms.     

Land-use history affects understorey plant species distributions in a large temperate-forest complex,Denmark

In Europe, forests have been strongly influenced by human land-use for millennia. Here, we studied the importance of anthropogenic historical factors as determinants of understorey species distributions in a 967 ha Danish forest complex using 156 randomly placed 100-m² plots, 15 environmental, 9 spatial, and 5 historical variables, and principal components analysis (PCA), redundancy analysis (RDA) as well as indicator species analysis. The historical variables were status as ancient (1805 AD) high forest, reclaimed bogs, ≤100 m from Bronze Age burial mounds, or former conifer plantation, and stand age. The PCA results showed that the main gradients in species composition were strongly related to the explanatory variables. Forward variable selection and variation partitioning using RDA showed that although modern environment was the dominant driver of species composition, anthropogenic historical factors were also important. The pure historical variation fraction constituted 13% of the variation explained. The RDA results showed that ancient-forest status and, secondarily, reclaimed bog status were the only significant historical variables. Many typical forest interior species, with poor dispersal and a strong literature record as ancient-forest species, were still concentrated in areas that were high forest in 1805. Among the younger forests, there were clear floristic differences between those on reclaimed bogs and those not. Apparently remnant populations of wet-soil plants were still present in the reclaimed bog areas. Our results emphasize the importance of historical factors for understanding modern vegetation patterns in forested landscapes.     

A globally consistent richness-climate relationship for angiosperms

Species richness, the simplest index of biodiversity, varies greatly over broad spatial scales. Richness-climate relationships often account for >80% of the spatial variance in richness. However, it has been suggested that richness-climate relationships differ significantly among geographic regions and that there is no globally consistent relationship. This study investigated the global patterns of species and family richness of angiosperms in relation to climate. We found that models relating angiosperm richness to mean annual temperature, annual water deficit, and their interaction or models relating richness to annual potential evapotranspiration and water deficit are both globally consistent and very strong and are independent of the diverse evolutionary histories and functional assemblages of plants in different parts of the world. Thus, effects of other factors such as evolutionary history, postglacial dispersal, soil nutrients, topography, or other climatic variables either must be quite minor over broad scales (because there is little residual variation left to explain) or they must be strongly collinear with global patterns of climate. The correlations shown here must be predicted by any successful hypothesis of mechanisms controlling richness patterns.     

Geographical patterns of community‐based tree species richness in Chinese mountain forests: the effects of contemporary climate and regional history

The relationship between climate/productivity and historical/regional contingency and their relative influence on geographical patterns of species richness (GPSR) are still unresolved. Based on field data from 1494 plots from forests on 63 mountains across China, we document the GPSR for forest communities. Regression tree and generalized linear models were used to explore the discreteness and gradient of the distribution of tree species richness (α‐diversity), and to estimate the correlations of climate, historical floristic region, and local habitat with species richness. The collinearity between climatic variables and region were further disentangled; and the spatial autocorrelation in the patterns of α‐diversity and the residuals of alternative predictive models were compared. Overall, 75% of variation in plot‐based α‐diversity of trees was accounted for by all variables included, and about 66.5%, 64.5% and 27.9% by climate, region, and local habitat respectively. Importantly, the explanatory power of these variables differed in particular for coniferous, deciduous broadleaved and evergreen broadleaved species. Ambient temperature was more important for α‐diversity of trees than were the other climatic variables across China. Spatial autocorrelation in the pattern of α‐diversity could be accounted for mainly by spatial variation climate. The concordance between tree α‐diversity, historical flora, contemporary climate, and Quaternary climate change mode suggests the climate/productivity and historical/regional contingency both contribute to the GPSR in a complimentary manner. Taken together, our results provide unique evidence to link of the effects of contemporary climate and historical climate change on species richness across scales.     

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.