Responses of High Arctic wet sedge tundra to climate warming since 1980

The global climate is changing rapidly and Arctic regions are showing responses to recent warming. Responses of tundra ecosystems to climate change have been examined primarily through short‐term experimental manipulations, with few studies of long‐term ambient change. We investigated changes in above‐ and belowground biomass of wet sedge tundra to the warming climate of the Canadian High Arctic over the past 25 years. Aboveground standing crop was harvested from five sedge meadow sites and belowground biomass was sampled from one of the sites in the early 1980s and in 2005 using the same methods. Aboveground biomass was on average 158% greater in 2005 than in the early 1980s. The belowground biomass was also much greater in 2005: root biomass increased by 67% and rhizome biomass by 139% since the early 1980s. Dominant species from each functional group (graminoids, shrubs and forbs) showed significant increases in aboveground biomass. Responsive species included the dominant sedge species Carex aquatilis stans, C. membranacea, and Eriophorum angustifolium, as well as the dwarf shrub Salix arctica and the forb Polygonum viviparum. However, diversity measures were not different between the sample years. The greater biomass correlated strongly with increased annual and summer temperatures over the same time period, and was significantly greater than the annual variation in biomass measured in 1980–1983. Increased decomposition and mineralization rates, stimulated by warmer soils, were likely a major cause of the elevated productivity, as no differences in the mass of litter were found between sample periods. Our results are corroborated by published short‐term experimental studies, conducted in other wet sedge tundra communities which link warming and fertilization with elevated decomposition, mineralization and tundra productivity. We believe that this is the first study to show responses in High Arctic wet sedge tundra to recent climate change.     

Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4–7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.     

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.     

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid‐2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well‐documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.     

Autogenic succession, land-use change, and climatic influences on the Holocene development of a kettle-hole mire in Northern Poland

We reconstructed the Holocene developmental history of a kettle-hole peatland in the Tuchola Forest of Northern Poland, using pollen, testat amoebae and plant macrofossil indicators. Our aims were to determine the timing and pattern of autogenic succession and natural and anthropogenic influences on the peatland. Northern Poland is under mixed oceanic and continental climatic influences but has so far been less studied in a palaeoecological context than more oceanic regions of Europe. In the first terrestrial developmental phase of the mire, the testate amoebae-inferred depth to water table revealed two major dry shifts at ca. 9400 (end of lake phase) and ca. 7100 cal BP (a period of global cooling and dry shift in Western Europe). Conditions became wetter again in two steps at ca. 6700 and ca. 5800 BP after a dry event at ca. 6100 BP. The timing of the wet shift at 5800 BP corresponds to wet periods in Western Europe. Peat accumulation rates were low (0.1 mm yr^− 1) between ca. 5600 and ca. 3000 BP when sedges dominated the peatland. In the last 2500 yrs surface moisture fluctuated with wet events at ca. 2750–2400, and 2000 BP, and dry events at ca. 2250–2100 and 1450 BP. After 1450 BP a trend towards wetter conditions culminated at ca. 500 cal BP, possibly caused by local deforestation. Over the mire history, pH (inferred from testate amoebae) was mostly low (around 5) with two short-lived shifts to alkaline conditions (7.5) at ca. 6100 and 1450 BP indicating a minerotrophic influence from surface run-off into the mire. Up to about 1000 BP the ecological shifts inferred from the three proxies agree with palaeoclimatic records from Poland and Western Europe. After this date, however correlation is less clear suggesting an increasing local anthropogenic impact on the mire. This study confirms that kettle-hole peatlands can yield useful palaeoenvironmental data as well as recording land-use change and calls for more comparable studies in regions are the interface between major climate influences.     

The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem

During recent decades there has been a change in the circulation of atmospheric pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are expressed in the recently described Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has shown an upward trend (associated with winter warming in the eastern Arctic) during the last three decades. We analysed a 12‐year time series on growth of Cassiope tetragona (Lapland Cassiope) and a 21‐year time series on abundance of a Svalbard reindeer population. High values of the AO index were associated with reduced plant growth and reindeer population growth rate. The North Atlantic Oscillation index was not able to explain a significant proportion of the variance in either plant growth or reindeer population fluctuations. Thus, the AO index may be a better predictor for ecosystem effects of climate change in certain high‐arctic areas compared to the NAO index.     

CO2 exchange in three Canadian High Arctic ecosystems: response to long-term experimental warming

Carbon dioxide exchange, soil C and N, leaf mineral nutrition and leaf carbon isotope discrimination (LCID‐Δ) were measured in three High Arctic tundra ecosystems over 2 years under ambient and long‐term (9 years) warmed (～2°C) conditions. These ecosystems are located at Alexandra Fiord (79°N) on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, and span a soil water gradient; dry, mesic, and wet tundra. Growing season CO₂ fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R_e)) were measured using an infrared gas analyzer and winter C losses were estimated by chemical absorption. All three tundra ecosystems lost CO₂ to the atmosphere during the winter, ranging from 7 to 12 g CO₂‐C m^?2 season^?1 being highest in the wet tundra. The period during the growing season when mesic tundra switch from being a CO₂ source to a CO₂ sink was increased by 2 weeks because of warming and increases in GEP. Warming during the summer stimulated dry tundra GEP more than R_e and thus, NEE was consistently greater under warmed as opposed to ambient temperatures. In mesic tundra, warming stimulated GEP with no effect on R_e increasing NEE by ～10%, especially in the first half of the summer. During the ～70 days growing season (mid‐June–mid‐August), the dry and wet tundra ecosystems were net CO₂‐C sinks (30 and 67 g C m^?2 season^?1, respectively) and the mesic ecosystem was a net C source (58 g C m^?2 season^?1) to the atmosphere under ambient temperature conditions, due in part to unusual glacier melt water flooding that occurred in the mesic tundra. Experimental warming during the growing season increased net C uptake by ～12% in dry tundra, but reduced net C uptake by ～20% in wet tundra primarily because of greater rates of R_e as opposed to lower rates of GEP. Mesic tundra responded to long‐term warming with ～30% increase in GEP with almost no change in R_e reducing this tundra type to a slight C source (17 g C m^?2 season^?1). Warming caused LCID of Dryas integrafolia plants to be higher in dry tundra and lower in Salix arctic plants in mesic and wet tundra. Our findings indicate that: (1) High Arctic ecosystems, which occur in similar mesoclimates, have different net CO₂ exchange rates with the atmosphere; (2) long‐term warming can increase the net CO₂ exchange of High Arctic tundra by stimulating GEP, but it can also reduce net CO₂ exchange in some tundra types during the summer by stimulating R_e to a greater degree than stimulating GEP; (3) after 9 years of experimental warming, increases in soil carbon and nitrogen are detectable, in part, because of increases in deciduous shrub cover, biomass, and leaf litter inputs; (4) dry tundra increases in GEP, in response to long‐term warming, is reflected in D. integrifolia LCID; and (5) the differential carbon exchange responses of dry, mesic, and wet tundra to similar warming magnitudes appear to depend, in part, on the hydrologic (soil water) conditions. Annual net ecosystem CO₂‐C exchange rates ranged from losses of 64 g C m^?2 yr^?1 to gains of 55 g C m^?2 yr^?1. These magnitudes of positive NEE are close to the estimates of NPP for these tundra types in Alexandra Fiord and in other High Arctic locations based on destructive harvests.     

Holocene vegetation and climate change on the Colorado Great Plains,USA, and the invasion of Colorado piñon (Pinus edulis)

Aim To reconstruct the last c. 7000 years of vegetation and climate change in an unusual region of modern Great Plains grassland and scarp woodland in south‐east Colorado (USA), and to determine the late Holocene biogeography of Colorado piñon (Pinus edulis) at its easternmost extent, using a series of radiocarbon‐dated packrat (Neotoma sp.) middens. Location The West Carrizo Canyon drains the Chaquaqua Plateau, a plateau that projects into the western extent of the southern Great Plains grasslands in south‐eastern Colorado, USA. Elevations of the study sites are 1448 to 1525 m a.s.l. Today the plateau is mostly Juniperus scopulorum–P. edulis woodland. Methods Plant macrofossils and pollen assemblages were analysed from 11 ¹⁴C‐dated packrat middens. Ages ranged from 5990 yr bp (6839 cal. yr bp ) to 280 yr bp (485 cal. yr bp ). Results The results presented here provide information on the establishment and expansion of Juniperus–P. edulis woodland at its eastern limits. The analysis of both plant macrofossils and pollen from the 11 middens documents changes in plant communities over the last 7000 years, and the establishment of P. edulis at its easternmost limit. Though very minor amounts of P. edulis pollen occur as early as the middle Holocene, plant macrofossils were only recovered in middens dating after c. 480 cal. yr bp . Main conclusions Originally, midden research suggested a late glacial refuge to the north‐east of the Carrizo Canyon site, and a middle Holocene expansion of P. edulis. Results reported here are consistent with a late Holocene expansion, here at its eastern limits, but noted elsewhere at its northern and north‐eastern limits. In general, this late Holocene expansion is consistent with pollen data from sediments in Colorado and New Mexico, and suggests that P. edulis is still expanding its range at its present extremes. This has implications for further extension of its range due to changing climatic conditions in the future.     

Advancing the long view of ecological change in tundra systems

Despite uncertainties related to sustained funding, ideological rivalries and the turnover of research personnel, long-term studies and studies espousing a long-term perspective in ecology have a history of contributing landmark insights into fundamental topics, such as population- and community dynamics, species interactions and ecosystem function. They also have the potential to reveal surprises related to unforeseen events and non-stationary dynamics that unfold over the course of ongoing observation and experimentation. The unprecedented rate and magnitude of current and expected abiotic changes in tundra environments calls for a synthetic overview of the scope of ecological responses these changes have elicited. In this special issue, we present a series of contributions that advance the long view of ecological change in tundra systems, either through sustained long-term research, or through retrospective or prospective modelling. Beyond highlighting the value of long-term research in tundra systems, the insights derived herein should also find application to the study of ecological responses to environmental change in other biomes as well.     

Plant community composition and species richness in the High Arctic tundra: From the present to the future

Arctic plant communities are altered by climate changes. The magnitude of these alterations depends on whether species distributions are determined by macroclimatic conditions, by factors related to local topography, or by biotic interactions. Our current understanding of the relative importance of these conditions is limited due to the scarcity of studies, especially in the High Arctic. We investigated variations in vascular plant community composition and species richness based on 288 plots distributed on three sites along a coast‐inland gradient in Northeast Greenland using a stratified random design. We used an information theoretic approach to determine whether variations in species richness were best explained by macroclimate, by factors related to local topography (including soil water) or by plant‐plant interactions. Latent variable models were used to explain patterns in plant community composition. Species richness was mainly determined by variations in soil water content, which explained 35% of the variation, and to a minor degree by other variables related to topography. Species richness was not directly related to macroclimate. Latent variable models showed that 23.0% of the variation in community composition was explained by variables related to topography, while distance to the inland ice explained an additional 6.4 %. This indicates that some species are associated with environmental conditions found in only some parts of the coast–inland gradient. Inclusion of macroclimatic variation increased the model's explanatory power by 4.2%. Our results suggest that the main impact of climate changes in the High Arctic will be mediated by their influence on local soil water conditions. Increasing temperatures are likely to cause higher evaporation rates and alter the distribution of late‐melting snow patches. This will have little impact on landscape‐scale diversity if plants are able to redistribute locally to remain in areas with sufficient soil water.     

Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice‐rich permafrost landscapes,Prudhoe Bay Oilfield,Alaska

Many areas of the Arctic are simultaneously affected by rapid climate change and rapid industrial development. These areas are likely to increase in number and size as sea ice melts and abundant Arctic natural resources become more accessible. Documenting the changes that have already occurred is essential to inform management approaches to minimize the impacts of future activities. Here, we determine the cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years (1949–2011) of infrastructure‐ and climate‐related changes in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, the oldest and most extensive industrial complex in the Arctic, and an area with extensive ice‐rich permafrost that is extraordinarily sensitive to climate change. We demonstrate that thermokarst has recently affected broad areas of the entire region, and that a sudden increase in the area affected began shortly after 1990 corresponding to a rapid rise in regional summer air temperatures and related permafrost temperatures. We also present a conceptual model that describes how infrastructure‐related factors, including road dust and roadside flooding are contributing to more extensive thermokarst in areas adjacent to roads and gravel pads. We mapped the historical infrastructure changes for the Alaska North Slope oilfields for 10 dates from the initial oil discovery in 1968–2011. By 2010, over 34% of the intensively mapped area was affected by oil development. In addition, between 1990 and 2001, coincident with strong atmospheric warming during the 1990s, 19% of the remaining natural landscapes (excluding areas covered by infrastructure, lakes and river floodplains) exhibited expansion of thermokarst features resulting in more abundant small ponds, greater microrelief, more active lakeshore erosion and increased landscape and habitat heterogeneity. This transition to a new geoecological regime will have impacts to wildlife habitat, local residents and industry.     

Long‐term experimental manipulation of climate alters the ectomycorrhizal community of Betula nana in Arctic tundra

Climate warming is leading to shrub expansion in Arctic tundra. Shrubs form ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations with soil fungi that are central to ecosystem carbon balance as determinants of plant community structure and as decomposers of soil organic matter. To assess potential climate change impacts on ECM communities, we analysed fungal internal transcribed spacer sequences from ECM root tips of the dominant tundra shrub Betula nana growing in treatments plots that had received long‐term warming by greenhouses and/or fertilization as part of the Arctic Long‐Term Ecological Research experiment at Toolik Lake Alaska, USA. We demonstrate opposing effects of long‐term warming and fertilization treatments on ECM fungal diversity; with warming increasing and fertilization reducing the diversity of ECM communities. We show that warming leads to a significant increase in high biomass fungi with proteolytic capacity, especially Cortinarius spp., and a reduction of fungi with high affinities for labile N, especially Russula spp. In contrast, fertilization treatments led to relatively small changes in the composition of the ECM community, but increased the abundance of saprotrophs. Our data suggest that warming profoundly alters nutrient cycling in tundra, and may facilitate the expansion of B. nana through the formation of mycorrhizal networks of larger size.     

Beyond just sea‐level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land‐sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea‐level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change‐related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea‐level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.     

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general ‘greening’ trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets‐occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two.     

Mammalian responses to Middle Holocene climatic change in the Great Basin of the western United States

In spite of decades of intense research directed toward understanding the climates and ecology of the Great Basin (western United States) during the past 10,000 years, the responses of mammals to the extreme aridity of the Middle Holocene (c. 8000–5000 years ago) in this region have been poorly understood. Using a well‐dated small mammal sequence from Homestead Cave, north‐central Utah, I show that the Middle Holocene small mammal faunas of this area underwent a decrease in species richness and evenness, driven largely by a series of local extinctions and near‐extinctions coupled with a dramatic increase in the abundance of taxa well‐adapted to xeric conditions. At the end of this period, some taxa that require relatively mesic habitats began to increase in abundance immediately, others did not rebound in abundance until several thousand years later, while still others have not returned at all. This suite of responses has been difficult to detect because climatic change at the beginning of the Middle Holocene was so much more substantial than that which occurred toward its end.     

Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic: the importance of long‐term thermal acclimation potential and inhibitory effects of light on respiration

The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration (R), a temperature‐dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well‐understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short‐term temperature responses can predict long‐term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species E riophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and B etula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light (R _L/R _D), respiratory response to short‐term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long‐term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E . vaginatum both R _L and R _D acclimated to the long‐term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short‐term response to temperature increase. In B . nana, both R _L and R _D responded to short‐term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long‐term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short‐term temperature responses will depend on species‐specific acclimation potential and the differential response of R _L and R _D to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance.