Impaired Glucose Metabolism among Those with and without Diagnosed Diabetes and Mortality: A Cohort Study Using Health Survey for England Data

Background

The extent that controlled diabetes impacts upon mortality, compared with uncontrolled diabetes, and how pre-diabetes alters mortality risk remain issues requiring clarification.

Methods

We carried out a cohort study of 22,106 Health Survey for England participants with a HbA1_C measurement linked with UK mortality records. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox regression.

Results

Average follow-up time was seven years and there were 1,509 deaths within the sample. Compared with the non-diabetic and normoglycaemic group (HbA1_C <5.7% [<39mmol/mol] and did not indicate diabetes), undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1_C ≥6.5% [≥48mmol/mol] and did not indicate diabetes) inferred an increased risk of mortality for all-causes (HR 1.40, 1.09–1.80) and CVD (1.99, 1.35–2.94), as did uncontrolled diabetes (diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C ≥6.5% [≥48mmol/mol]) and diabetes with moderately raised HbA1_C (diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C 5.7-<6.5% [39-<48mmol/mol]). Those with controlled diabetes (diagnosed diabetes and HbA<5.7% [<39mmol/mol]) had an increased HR in relation to mortality from CVD only. Pre-diabetes (those who did not indicate diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C 5.7-<6.5% [39-<48mmol/mol]) was not associated with increased mortality, and raised HbA1_C did not appear to have a statistically significant impact upon cancer mortality. Adjustment for BMI and socioeconomic status had a limited impact upon our results. We also found women had a higher all-cause and CVD mortality risk compared with men.

Conclusions

We found higher rates of all-cause and CVD mortality among those with raised HbA1_C, but not for those with pre-diabetes, compared with those without diabetes. This excess differed by sex and diabetes status. The large number of deaths from cancer and CVD globally suggests that controlling blood glucose levels and policies to prevent hyperglycaemia should be considered public health priorities.     

Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes remission in Scotland in 2019: A cross-sectional population-based study

BackgroundClinical pathways are changing to incorporate support and appropriate follow-up for people to achieve remission of type 2 diabetes, but there is limited understanding of the prevalence of remission in current practice or patient characteristics associated with remission.Methods and findingsWe carried out a cross-sectional study estimating the prevalence of remission of type 2 diabetes in all adults in Scotland aged ≥30 years diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and alive on December 31, 2019. Remission of type 2 diabetes was assessed between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019. We defined remission as all HbA1c values <48 mmol/mol in the absence of glucose-lowering therapy (GLT) for a continuous duration of ≥365 days before the date of the last recorded HbA1c in 2019. Multivariable logistic regression in complete and multiply imputed datasets was used to examine characteristics associated with remission. Our cohort consisted of 162,316 individuals, all of whom had at least 1 HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at or after diagnosis of diabetes and at least 1 HbA1c recorded in 2019 (78.5% of the eligible population). Over half (56%) of our cohort was aged 65 years or over in 2019, and 64% had had type 2 diabetes for at least 6 years. Our cohort was predominantly of white ethnicity (74%), and ethnicity data were missing for 19% of the cohort. Median body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis was 32.3 kg/m². A total of 7,710 people (4.8% [95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7 to 4.9]) were in remission of type 2 diabetes. Factors associated with remission were older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.48 [95% CI 1.34 to 1.62] P < 0.001) for people aged ≥75 years compared to 45 to 54 year group), HbA1c <48 mmol/mol at diagnosis (OR 1.31 [95% CI 1.24 to 1.39] P < 0.001) compared to 48 to 52 mmol/mol), no previous history of GLT (OR 14.6 [95% CI 13.7 to 15.5] P < 0.001), weight loss from diagnosis to 2019 (OR 4.45 [95% CI 3.89 to 5.10] P < 0.001) for ≥15 kg of weight loss compared to 0 to 4.9 kg weight gain), and previous bariatric surgery (OR 11.9 [95% CI 9.41 to 15.1] P < 0.001). Limitations of the study include the use of a limited subset of possible definitions of remission of type 2 diabetes, missing data, and inability to identify self-funded bariatric surgery.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that 4.8% of people with type 2 diabetes who had at least 1 HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) after diagnosis of diabetes and had at least 1 HbA1c recorded in 2019 had evidence of type 2 diabetes remission. Guidelines are required for management and follow-up of this group and may differ depending on whether weight loss and remission of diabetes were intentional or unintentional. Our findings can be used to evaluate the impact of future initiatives on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes remission.

Mireille Captieux and co-workers report on population-level evidence for remission of type 2 diabetes in Scotland.     

The Influence of Diabetes,Glycemic Control,and Diabetes-Related Comorbidities on Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Background

To assess the influence of diabetes mellitus (DM), glycemic control, and diabetes-related comorbidities on manifestations and outcome of treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Culture positive pulmonary TB patients notified to health authorities in three hospitals in Taiwan from 2005–2010 were investigated. Glycemic control was assessed by glycated haemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) and diabetic patients were categorized into 3 groups: HbA1C<7%, HbA1C 7–9%, HbA1C>9%. 1,473 (705 with DM and 768 without DM) patients were enrolled. Of the 705 diabetic patients, 82 (11.6%) had pretreatment HbA1C<7%, 152 (21.6%) 7%–9%, 276 (39.2%) >9%, and 195 (27.7%) had no information of HbA1C. The proportions of patients with any symptom, cough, hemoptysis, tiredness and weight loss were all highest in diabetic patients with HbA1C>9%. In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and drug resistance, diabetic patients with HbA1C>9% (adjOR 3.55, 95% CI 2.40–5.25) and HbA1C 7–9% (adjOR 1.62, 95% CI 1.07–2.44) were significantly more likely to be smear positive as compared with non-diabetic patients, but not those with HbA1C<7% (adjOR 1.16, 95% CI 0.70–1.92). The influence of DM on outcome of TB treatment was not proportionately related to HbA1C, but mainly mediated through diabetes-related comorbidities. Patients with diabetes-related comorbidities had an increased risk of unfavorable outcome (adjOR 3.38, 95% CI 2.19–5.22, p<0.001) and one year mortality (adjOR 2.80, 95% CI 1.89–4.16). However, diabetes was not associated with amplification of resistance to isoniazid (p = 0.363) or to rifampicin (p = 0.344).

Conclusions/Significance

Poor glycemic control is associated with poor TB treatment outcome and improved glycemic control may reduce the influence of diabetes on TB.     

Relationship of Glycated Hemoglobin Levels with Myocardial Injury following Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background

Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) predicts clinical cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular mortality. However, the relationship between HbA1c and myocardial injury following elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) has not been investigated.

Objectives

The study sought to assess the relationship between HbA1c and myocardial injury following elective PCI in patients with type 2 DM.

Methods

We studied a cohort of consecutive 994 diabetic patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing elective PCI. Periprocedural myocardial injury was evaluated by analysis of troponin I (cTnI). The association between preprocedural HbA1c levels and the peak values of cTnI within 24 hours after PCI was evaluated.

Results

Peak postprocedural cTnI >1×upper limit of normal (ULN), >3×ULN and >5×ULN were detected in 543 (54.6%), 337 (33.9%) and 245 (24.6%) respectively. In the multivariate model, higher HbA1c levels were associated with less risk of postprocedural cTnI >1×ULN (odds ratio [OR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76–0.95; P = 0.005). There was a trend that higher HbA1c levels were associated with less risk of postprocedural cTnI >3×ULN (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81–1.02; P = 0.088). HbA1c was not associated with the risk of postprocedural cTnI elevation above 5×ULN (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.84–1.08; P = 0.411).

Conclusions

The present study provided the first line of evidence that higher preprocedural HbA1c levels were associated with less risk of myocardial injury following elective PCI in diabetic patients.     

Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

Objective

Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.

Methods

Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008–2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.

Results

The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703–0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883–0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715–0.753) and 0.882 (0.868–0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥15 and invasive score of ≥19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.

Conclusions

The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.     

Extreme Levels of HbA1c Increase Incident ESRD Risk in Chinese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Competing Risk Analysis in National Cohort of Taiwan Diabetes Study

Background

Whether HbA1c is a predictor of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in type 2 diabetes patients remains unclear. This study evaluated relationship between HbA1c and ESRD in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.

Methods

Patients aged ≥ 30 years who were free of ESRD (n = 51 681) were included from National Diabetes Care Management Program from 2002–2003. Extended Cox proportional hazard model with competing risk of death served to evaluate association between HbA1c level and ESRD.

Results

A total of 2613 (5.06%) people developed ESRD during a follow-up period of 8.1 years. Overall incidence rate of ESRD was 6.26 per 1000 person-years. Patients with high levels of HbA1c had a high incidence rate of ESRD, from 4.29 for HbA1c of  6.0%–6.9% to 10.33 for HbA1c ≥ 10.0% per 1000 person-years. Patients with HbA1c < 6.0% particularly had a slightly higher ESRD incidence (4.34 per 1000 person-years) than those with HbA1c  of 6.0%–6.9%. A J-shaped relationship between HbA1c level and ESRD risk was observed. After adjustment, patients with HbA1c < 6.0% and ≥ 10.0% exhibited an increased risk of ESRD (HR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.62–2.44; HR: 4.42, 95% CI: 3.80–5.14, respectively) compared with those with HbA1c of 6.0%–6.9%.

Conclusions

Diabetes care has focused on preventing hyperglycemia, but not hypoglycemia. Our study revealed that HbA1c level ≥ 7.0% was linked with increased ESRD risk in type 2 diabetes patients, and that HbA1c < 6.0% also had the potential to increase ESRD risk. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that appropriate glycemic control is essential for diabetes care to meet HbA1c targets and improve outcomes without increasing the risk to this population. Clinicians need to pay attention to HbA1c results on diabetic nephropathy.     

Evaluation of an mHealth-enabled hierarchical diabetes management intervention in primary care in China (ROADMAP): A cluster randomized trial

BackgroundGlycemic control remains suboptimal in developing countries due to critical system deficiencies. An innovative mobile health (mHealth)-enabled hierarchical diabetes management intervention was introduced and evaluated in China with the purpose of achieving better control of type 2 diabetes in primary care.Methods and findingsA community-based cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted among registered patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care from June 2017 to July 2019. A total of 19,601 participants were recruited from 864 communities (clusters) across 25 provinces in China, and 19,546 completed baseline assessment. Moreover, 576 communities (13,037 participants) were centrally randomized to the intervention and 288 communities (6,509 participants) to usual care. The intervention was centered on a tiered care team–delivered mHealth-mediated service package, initiated by monthly blood glucose monitoring at each structured clinic visit. Capacity building and quarterly performance review strategies upheld the quality of delivered primary care. The primary outcome was control of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c; <7.0%), assessed at baseline and 12 months. The secondary outcomes include the individual/combined control rates of blood glucose, blood pressure (BP), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C); changes in levels of HbA1c, BP, LDL-C, fasting blood glucose (FBG), and body weight; and episodes of hypoglycemia. Data were analyzed using intention-to-treat (ITT) generalized estimating equation (GEE) models, accounting for clustering and baseline values of the analyzed outcomes. After 1-year follow-up, 17,554 participants (89.8%) completed the end-of-study (EOS) assessment, with 45.1% of them from economically developed areas, 49.9% from urban areas, 60.5 (standard deviation [SD] 8.4) years of age, 41.2% male, 6.0 years of median diabetes duration, HbA1c level of 7.87% (SD 1.92%), and 37.3% with HbA1c <7.0% at baseline. Compared with usual care, the intervention led to an absolute improvement in the HbA1c control rate of 7.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.0% to 10.0%) and a relative improvement of 18.6% (relative risk [RR] 1.186, 95% CI 1.105 to 1.267) and an absolute improvement in the composite ABC control (HbA1c <7.0%, BP <140/80 mm Hg, and LDL-C <2.6 mmol/L) rate of 1.9% (95% CI 0.5 to 3.5) and a relative improvement of 21.8% (RR 1.218, 95% CI 1.062 to 1.395). No difference was found on hypoglycemia episode and weight gain between groups. Study limitations include noncentralized laboratory tests except for HbA1c, and caution should be exercised when extrapolating the findings to patients not registered in primary care system.ConclusionsThe mHealth-enabled hierarchical diabetes management intervention effectively improved diabetes control in primary care and has the potential to be transferred to other chronic conditions management in similar contexts.Trial registrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR) IOC-17011325.

Weiping Jia and co-workers evaluate an intervention for diabetes management in primary care in China.     

Relationship between HbA1c and Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Chinese Population: A Multicenter Study

Objective

Since there is a paucity of reference data in the literature to indicate the relationship between HbA1c, and 24 h mean blood glucose (MBG) from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in Chinese populations, we described the above relationship in adult Chinese subjects with different glucose tolerance status.

Methods

Seven-hundred-and-forty-two individuals without history of diabetes were included to the study at 11 hospitals in urban areas across China from 2007–2009 and data of 673 subjects were included into the final analysis. Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) classified the participants as nondiabetic subjects, including those with normal glucose regulation (NGR; n = 121) and impaired glucose regulation (IGR; n = 209), or newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (n = 343). All participants completed testing for HbA1c levels and wore a CGM system for three consecutive days. The 24 h MBG levels were calculated. Spearman correlations and linear regression analyses were applied to quantify the relationship between glucose markers.

Results

The levels of HbA1c and 24 h MBG significantly increased with presence of glucose intolerance (NGR<IGR<type 2 diabetes; both, P<0.001). Analysis of the total population indicated that HbA1c was strongly correlated with 24 h MBG (r = 0.735). The correlation was also found to be significant for the subgroup of participants with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (r = 0.694, P<0.001). Linear regression analysis of the total study population yielded the following equation: 24 h MBG _mmol/L = 1.198×HbA1c–0.582 (24 h MBG _mg/dL = 21.564×HbA1c–10.476) (R² = 0.670, P<0.001). The model fit was not improved by application of exponential or quadratic modeling. When HbA1c was 6.5%, the calculated 24 h MBG was 7.2 (6.4–8.1) mmol/L (130 (115–146) mg/dL); and when HbA1c was 7.0%, the 24 h MBG was 7.8 (6.9–8.7) mmol/L (140 (124–157) mg/dL).

Conclusions

Our study provided the reference data of the relationship between HbA1c and CGM in Chinese subjects.     

The Impact of Diabetes Mellitus and Corresponding HbA1c Levels on the Future Risks of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: A Representative Cohort Study in Taiwan

Background

This study explored the relationship between the glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level in patients with or without diabetes mellitus and future risks of cardiovascular disease and death.

Methods

Based on a national representative cohort, a total of 5277 participants (7% with diabetes) were selected from Taiwan''s Triple High Survey in 2002. The comorbidities, medication usages, and outcomes of cardiovascular disease and death, were extracted from the Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database and National Death Registry.

Results

After a median follow-up of 9.7 years, participants with diabetes had higher incidence of new onset cardiovascular disease (17.9 versus 3.16 cases per 1000 person-years) and death (20.1 versus 4.96 cases per 1000 person-years) than those without diabetes (all P < 0.001). Diabetes showed increased risk of all-cause death after adjusting for all confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-3.45). Every 1% increment of HbA1c was positively associated with the risk of total cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.08-1.34) and the risk of death (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26) for all participants. As compared to the reference group with HbA1c below 5.5%, participants with HbA1c levels ≥7.5% had significantly elevated future risks of total cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.01-3.26) and all-cause death (HR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.45-4.14).

Conclusions/Interpretation

Elevated HbA1C levels were associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease and death, the suboptimal glycemic control with HbA1c level over 7.5% (58.5 mmol/mol) was strongly associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease and all-cause death.     

Hemoglobin A1c Levels and Risk of Severe Hypoglycemia in Children and Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes from Germany and Austria: A Trend Analysis in a Cohort of 37,539 Patients between 1995 and 2012

Background

Severe hypoglycemia is a major complication of insulin treatment in patients with type 1 diabetes, limiting full realization of glycemic control. It has been shown in the past that low levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), a marker of average plasma glucose, predict a high risk of severe hypoglycemia, but it is uncertain whether this association still exists. Based on advances in diabetes technology and pharmacotherapy, we hypothesized that the inverse association between severe hypoglycemia and HbA1c has decreased in recent years.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed data of 37,539 patients with type 1 diabetes (mean age ± standard deviation 14.4±3.8 y, range 1–20 y) from the DPV (Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation) Initiative diabetes cohort prospectively documented between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2012. The DPV cohort covers an estimated proportion of >80% of all pediatric diabetes patients in Germany and Austria. Associations of severe hypoglycemia, hypoglycemic coma, and HbA1c levels were assessed by multivariable regression analysis. From 1995 to 2012, the relative risk (RR) for severe hypoglycemia and coma per 1% HbA1c decrease declined from 1.28 (95% CI 1.19–1.37) to 1.05 (1.00–1.09) and from 1.39 (1.23–1.56) to 1.01 (0.93–1.10), respectively, corresponding to a risk reduction of 1.2% (95% CI 0.6–1.7, p<0.001) and 1.9% (0.8–2.9, p<0.001) each year, respectively. Risk reduction of severe hypoglycemia and coma was strongest in patients with HbA1c levels of 6.0%–6.9% (RR 0.96 and 0.90 each year) and 7.0%–7.9% (RR 0.96 and 0.89 each year). From 1995 to 2012, glucose monitoring frequency and the use of insulin analogs and insulin pumps increased (p<0.001). Our study was not designed to investigate the effects of different treatment modalities on hypoglycemia risk. Limitations are that associations between diabetes education and physical activity and severe hypoglycemia were not addressed in this study.

Conclusions

The previously strong association of low HbA1c with severe hypoglycemia and coma in young individuals with type 1 diabetes has substantially decreased in the last decade, allowing achievement of near-normal glycemic control in these patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Association of Serum Uric Acid with 2-Hour Postload Glucose in Chinese with Impaired Fasting Plasma Glucose and/or HbA1c

Objective

To examine whether serum uric acid (SUA) is associated with 2-hour postload glucose (2-h PG) in Chinese with impaired fasting plasma glucose (IFG) and/or HbA1c (IA1C).

Research Design and Methods

Anthropometric and biochemical examinations, such as SUA concentration, were performed in 3763 individuals from all the villages in Baqiao County, China. A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was conducted in 1197 Chinese with prediabetes as having IFG (110≤ fasting plasma glucose [FPG] <126 mg/dl and HbA1c <6.5%), IA1C (5.7% ≤ HbA1c <6.5% and FPG <126 mg/dl), or both.

Results

The present study included 1197 participants with IFG and/or IA1C (mean age 56.5±10.3 years; 50.6% men). In multivariate linear regression, after adjustment for gender, age, smoking and drinking, body mass index (BMI), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), lipid profiles, logarithmic transformed C-reactive protein (log-CRP), estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR), FPG and HbA1c, with a 1-mg/dl increment of SUA, 2-h PG increased by 5.04±0.72 (P<0.001), 3.06±1.08 (P = 0.001), 5.40±1.26 (P<0.001), and 2.34±2.16 mg/dl (P = 0.056) in all participants, in participants with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and with 2-h newly diagnosed diabetes (2-h NDM, with 2-h PG ≥200 mg/dl), respectively. In both men and women, 2-h PG increased progressively and significantly from the lower to the upper SUA tertiles (P<0.001). Moreover, in multivariate logistic regression, 1-standard deviation (SD; 1.53 mg/dl) increment of SUA was significantly associated with a 36% higher risk for 2-h NDM (Odds ratio [CI 95%]: 1.36 [1.09–1.99]; P = 0.03).

Conclusions

SUA is significantly associated with 2-h PG in Chinese with IFG and/or IA1C.     

The Association of Normal Range Glycated Hemoglobin with Restrictive Lung Pattern in the General Population

Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is an important diagnostic indicator of diabetes mellitus, and some authors have argued that it is related to impaired lung function in the diabetic population. However, there was rare study for association between lung function and HbA1c in the non-diabetic population. We investigated whether HbA1c below the diagnostic threshold is related to deficits in lung function. We analyzed biochemical and spirometry data from a nation-wide, population-based, case-control study (the KNHANES IV and V). Eligible as cases were all native Koreans aged 40 years or more with no medical illness. A total of 3670 participants were divided into 4 groups according to HbA1c (%) as follows: Group I (n = 842), ≥ 4.0 and ≤ 5.3; Group II (n = 833), > 5.3 and ≤ 5.5; Group III (n = 898), > 5.5 and ≤ 5.7; and Group IV (n = 1097), > 5.7 and ≤ 6.4. Group I had the greatest forced vital capacity (FVC, 96.3 ± 0.5% pred, P < 0.0001), forced expiratory volume per second (FEV₁, 93.8 ± 0.5% pred, P < 0.0001) and FEV₁/FVC (0.792 ± 0.003, P < 0.0001) compared with the other groups. Linear regression showed that HbA1c was closely related to FVC (β = -6.972154, P < 0.0001) and FEV₁ (β = -5.591589, P < 0.0001), but not to FEV₁/FVC. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant association between HbA1c and a restrictive spirometric pattern (FVC < 80% pred., FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.70; OR = 3.772, 95% CI = 1.234-11.53), indicating that elevated HbA1c is closely associated with lung impairment in the non-diabetic population. In the healthy population, relatively high HbA1c level is associated with decrements of FVC and FEV₁ and may be a reliable predictor of poor lung function, especially the restrictive pattern.     

Ten-Year Cumulative Incidence of Diabetic Retinopathy. The Beijing Eye Study 2001/2011

Objective

To assess the cumulative 10-year incidence of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and its associated factors in a population living in Greater Beijing.

Methods

The population-based longitudinal Beijing Eye Study, which included 4439 subjects (age in 2001: 40+years) in 2001, was repeated in 2011 with 2695 subjects participating (66.4% of the survivors). The study participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination. Fundus photographs were examined for the new development of DR.

Results

After excluding individuals with DR at baseline (n = 87) or no sufficient fundus photographs in 2011 (n = 6), the study included 2602 subjects with a mean age of 64.6±9.7 years (median: 64.0 years; range: 50 to 93 years). In the 10-year period, 109 subjects (39 men) developed new DR with an incidence of 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.45,5.03). In multiple logistic regression analysis, incident DR was significantly associated with higher HbA1c value (P<0.001; Odds Ratio (OR): 1.73; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.35,2.21), longer duration of diabetes mellitus (P<0.001; OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10,1.22), higher serum concentration of creatinine (P = 0.02; OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.002,1.022), lower educational level (P = 0.049; OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.55,0.99), higher estimated cerebrospinal fluid pressure (P = 0.038; OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01,1.22), and shorter axial length (P<0.001; OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.33,0.71).

Conclusions

The cumulative 10-year incidence (mean: 4.2%) of DR in a North Chinese population was significantly associated with a higher HbA1c value, longer known duration of diabetes mellitus, higher estimated CSFP and shorter axial length (P<0.001). Shorter axial length (or hyperopia) and, potentially, higher CSFP may be additional risk factors to be taken into account when counseling and treating patients with diabetes mellitus.     

Liver Function Tests and Risk Prediction of Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Evaluation in Two Independent Cohorts

Background

Liver function tests might predict the risk of type 2 diabetes. An independent study evaluating utility of these markers compared with an existing prediction model is yet lacking.

Methods and Findings

We performed a case-cohort study, including random subcohort (6.5%) from 38,379 participants with 924 incident diabetes cases (the Dutch contribution to the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition, EPIC-NL, the Netherlands), and another population-based cohort study including 7,952 participants with 503 incident cases (the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease, PREVEND, Groningen, the Netherlands). We examined predictive value of combination of the Liver function tests (gamma-glutamyltransferase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and albumin) above validated models for 7.5-year risk of diabetes (the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg, the KORA study). Basic model includes age, sex, BMI, smoking, hypertension and parental diabetes. Clinical models additionally include glucose and uric acid (model1) and HbA1c (model2). In both studies, addition of Liver function tests to the basic model improved the prediction (C-statistic by∼0.020; NRI by∼9.0%; P<0.001). In the EPIC-NL case-cohort study, addition to clinical model1 resulted in statistically significant improvement in the overall population (C-statistic = +0.009; P<0.001; NRI = 8.8%; P<0.001), while addition to clinical model 2 yielded marginal improvement limited to men (C-statistic = +0.007; P = 0.06; NRI = 3.3%; P = 0.04). In the PREVEND cohort study, addition to clinical model 1 resulted in significant improvement in the overall population (C-statistic change = 0.008; P = 0.003; NRI = 3.6%; P = 0.03), with largest improvement in men (C-statistic change = 0.013; P = 0.01; NRI = 5.4%; P = 0.04). In PREVEND, improvement compared to clinical model 2 could not be tested because of lack of HbA1c data.

Conclusions

Liver function tests modestly improve prediction for medium-term risk of incident diabetes above basic and extended clinical prediction models, only if no HbA1c is incorporated. If data on HbA1c are available, Liver function tests have little incremental predictive value, although a small benefit may be present in men.     

Sex Differences in the Quality of Diabetes Care in the Netherlands (ZODIAC-45)

Objective

Our aim was to investigate whether trends in quality of diabetes care differ between sexes in the Netherlands from 1998 till 2013.

Research Design and Methods

In this prospective observational cohort study quality of care was measured using process and outcome measures in patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care. Trend and absolute differences between sexes were investigated for patients <75 years. Subgroup analyses were performed in patients ≥75 years. 10-year mortality risk was assessed with the Globorisk risk equation in patients without cardiovascular diseases <75 years.

Results

The number of patients increased from 2,644 in 1998 to 62,230 in 2013. In 1998, 51% of the men and 60% of the women <75 years had an HbA1c >53 mmol/mol; this decreased to approximately 29% in both sexes in 2013. Patients having a systolic blood pressure >140 mmHg decreased from 70% to 42%, and from 80% to 40% in men and women <75 years, respectively. In patients ≥75 years it decreased from 72% to 50% in men and 85% to 56% in women. Obesity increased in both sexes, whereas smoking in men and women declined in patients <75 years (men: 34% to 22%; women: 22% to 18%). The number of patients with a mortality risk >20% over 10 years decreased from 15% to 3% in men and from 18% to 3% in women.

Conclusions

Quality of diabetes care has improved considerably in the period 1998–2013 in both sexes. Possibly relevant trend differences between sexes were observed for HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, BMI and smoking. The predicted mortality risk decreased over time in both sexes. Except for BMI in both age groups and systolic blood pressure in patients ≥75 years, no evident poorer risk factor control in women compared to men was found at the end of the study period.     

Impact of Walking on Glycemic Control and Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Walking is the most popular and most preferred exercise among type 2 diabetes patients, yet compelling evidence regarding its beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk factors is still lacking. The aim of this meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was to evaluate the association between walking and glycemic control and other cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetes patients.

Methods

Three databases were searched up to August 2014. English-language RCTs were eligible for inclusion if they had assessed the walking effects (duration ≥8 weeks) on glycemic control or other cardiovascular risk factors among type 2 diabetes patients. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. Subgroup analyses based on supervision status and meta-regression analyses of variables regarding characteristics of participants and walking were performed to investigate their association with glycemic control.

Results

Eighteen studies involving 20 RCTs (866 participants) were included. Walking significantly decreased glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) by 0.50% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: −0.78% to −0.21%). Supervised walking was associated with a pronounced decrease in HbA1c (WMD −0.58%, 95% CI: −0.93% to −0.23%), whereas non-supervised walking was not. Further subgroup analysis suggested non-supervised walking using motivational strategies is also effective in decreasing HbA1c (WMD −0.53%, 95% CI: −1.05% to −0.02%). Effects of covariates on HbA1c change were generally unclear. For other cardiovascular risk factors, walking significantly reduced body mass index (BMI) and lowered diastolic blood pressure (DBP), but non-significantly lowered systolic blood pressure (SBP), or changed high-density or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis supports that walking decreases HbA1c among type 2 diabetes patients. Supervision or the use of motivational strategies should be suggested when prescribed walking to ensure optimal glycemic control. Walking also reduces BMI and lowers DBP, however, it remains insufficient regarding the association of walking with lowered SBP or improved lipoprotein profiles.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO CRD42014009515     

Changes in the associations of race and rurality with SARS-CoV-2 infection,mortality, and case fatality in the United States from February 2020 to March 2021: A population-based cohort study

BackgroundWe examined whether key sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and mortality changed over time in a population-based cohort study.Methods and findingsIn a cohort of 9,127,673 persons enrolled in the United States Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system, we evaluated the independent associations of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics with SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 216,046), SARS-CoV-2–related mortality (n = 10,230), and case fatality at monthly intervals between February 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. VA enrollees had a mean age of 61 years (SD 17.7) and were predominantly male (90.9%) and White (64.5%), with 14.6% of Black race and 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity. Black (versus White) race was strongly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.10, [95% CI 4.65 to 5.59], p-value <0.001), mortality (AOR 3.85 [95% CI 3.30 to 4.50], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.56, 95% CI 2.23 to 2.93, p-value < 0.001) in February to March 2020, but these associations were attenuated and not statistically significant by November 2020 for infection (AOR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00 to 1.07] p-value = 0.05) and mortality (AOR 1.08 [95% CI 0.96 to 1.20], p-value = 0.21) and were reversed for case fatality (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.95, p-value = 0.005). American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN versus White) race was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in April and May 2020; this association declined over time and reversed by March 2021 (AOR 0.66 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.85] p-value = 0.004). Hispanic (versus non-Hispanic) ethnicity was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality during almost every time period, with no evidence of attenuation over time. Urban (versus rural) residence was associated with higher risk of infection (AOR 2.02, [95% CI 1.83 to 2.22], p-value < 0.001), mortality (AOR 2.48 [95% CI 2.08 to 2.96], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.60, p-value < 0.001) in February to April 2020, but these associations attenuated over time and reversed by September 2020 (AOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89, p-value < 0.001 for infection, AOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.83, p-value < 0.001 for mortality and AOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.93, p-value = 0.006 for case fatality). Throughout the observation period, high comorbidity burden, younger age, and obesity were consistently associated with infection, while high comorbidity burden, older age, and male sex were consistently associated with mortality. Limitations of the study include that changes over time in the associations of some risk factors may be affected by changes in the likelihood of testing for SARS-CoV-2 according to those risk factors; also, study results apply directly to VA enrollees who are predominantly male and have comprehensive healthcare and need to be confirmed in other populations.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that strongly positive associations of Black and AI/AN (versus White) race and urban (versus rural) residence with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and case fatality observed early in the pandemic were ameliorated or reversed by March 2021.

George Ioannou and co-workers study the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infections and outcomes among the United States population.     

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

Objective

To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting.

Design

Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population.

Results

Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%.

Conclusion

CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%).     

A Randomized Pilot Trial of a Moderate Carbohydrate Diet Compared to a Very Low Carbohydrate Diet in Overweight or Obese Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus or Prediabetes

We compared the effects of two diets on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and other health-related outcomes in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes or prediabetes (HbA1c>6%). We randomized participants to either a medium carbohydrate, low fat, calorie-restricted, carbohydrate counting diet (MCCR) consistent with guidelines from the American Diabetes Association (n = 18) or a very low carbohydrate, high fat, non calorie-restricted diet whose goal was to induce nutritional ketosis (LCK, n = 16). We excluded participants receiving insulin; 74% were taking oral diabetes medications. Groups met for 13 sessions over 3 months and were taught diet information and psychological skills to promote behavior change and maintenance. At 3 months, mean HbA1c level was unchanged from baseline in the MCCR diet group, while it decreased 0.6% in the LCK group; there was a significant between group difference in HbA1c change favoring the LCK group (−0.6%, 95% CI, −1.1% to −0.03%, p = 0.04). Forty-four percent of the LCK group discontinued one or more diabetes medications, compared to 11% of the MCCR group (p = 0.03); 31% discontinued sulfonylureas in the LCK group, compared to 5% in the MCCR group (p = 0.05). The LCK group lost 5.5 kg vs. 2.6 kg lost in MCCR group (p = 0.09). Our results suggest that a very low carbohydrate diet coupled with skills to promote behavior change may improve glycemic control in type 2 diabetes while allowing decreases in diabetes medications.This clinical trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01713764","term_id":"NCT01713764"}}NCT01713764.     

Rapid testing requires clinical evaluation for accurate diagnosis of dengue disease: A passive surveillance study in Southern Malaysia

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common mosquito-borne infection worldwide where an expanding surveillance and characterization of this infection are needed to better inform the healthcare system. In this surveillance-based study, we explored the prevalence and distinguishing features of dengue fever amongst febrile patients in a large community-based health facility in southern peninsular Malaysia.MethodsOver six months in 2018, we recruited 368 adults who met the WHO 2009 criteria for probable dengue infection. They underwent the following blood tests: full blood count, dengue virus (DENV) rapid diagnostic test (RDT), ELISA (dengue IgM and IgG), nested RT-PCR for dengue, multiplex qRT-PCR for Zika, Chikungunya and dengue as well as PCR tests for Leptopspira spp., Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus.ResultsLaboratory-confirmed dengue infections (defined by positive tests in NS1, IgM, high-titre IgG or nested RT-PCR) were found in 167 (45.4%) patients. Of these 167 dengue patients, only 104 (62.3%) were positive on rapid diagnostic testing. Dengue infection was significantly associated with the following features: family or neighbours with dengue in the past week (AOR: 3.59, 95% CI:2.14–6.00, p<0.001), cutaneous rash (AOR: 3.58, 95% CI:1.77–7.23, p<0.001), increased temperature (AOR: 1.33, 95% CI:1.04–1.70, p = 0.021), leucopenia (white cell count < 4,000/μL) (AOR: 3.44, 95% CI:1.72–6.89, p<0.001) and thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150,000/μL)(AOR: 4.63, 95% CI:2.33–9.21, p<0.001). Dengue infection was negatively associated with runny nose (AOR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.29–0.78, p = 0.003) and arthralgia (AOR: 0.42, 95% CI:0.24–0.75, p = 0.004). Serotyping by nested RT-PCR revealed mostly mono-infections with DENV-2 (n = 64), DENV-1 (n = 32) and DENV-3 (n = 17); 14 co-infections occurred with DENV-1/DENV-2 (n = 13) and DENV-1/DENV-4 (n = 1). Besides dengue, none of the pathogens above were found in patients’ serum.ConclusionsAcute undifferentiated febrile infections are a diagnostic challenge for community-based clinicians. Rapid diagnostic tests are increasingly used to diagnose dengue infection but negative tests should be interpreted with caution as they fail to detect a considerable proportion of dengue infection. Certain clinical features and haematological parameters are important in the clinical diagnosis of dengue infection.